####018005840#### FXUS62 KFFC 250832 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 432 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Key Messages: - Light showers are possible across portions of W GA tonight as a weak frontal boundary lifts back to the N. - A wedge over NE GA will keep daytime highs cool in that area on Friday. NW flow aloft continues over the area early this morning. The weak frontal boundary that sank S across the area on Wednesday is presently just S of Columbus and Macon. This boundary will continue to slowly move S today, stalling just S of the area by this evening. The front will then begin to lift N late tonight and on Friday in response to a developing storm system over the Central Plains. Some isentropic lift over the frontal surface will begin to produce light rain showers over S AL this afternoon. These showers will continue to lift N tonight. Some light showers will be possible over the W zones tonight, possibly reaching as far E as the Atlanta metro area. Most computer models are conservative with rainfall generated by this feature, including the NBM ensemble 90th percentile. Friday is expected to be mostly dry, although a few light showers are possible in the N mountains. High temperatures today are forecast to range from near 70 in the N mountains to the mid 80s across the S. As the old front lifts N and an upper level ridge moves E toward the region, lows tonight will range from near 50 in the NE mountains to near 60 in the S. A CAD wedge is forecast to develop over the NE part of the County Warning Area by Friday, which will delay the warm-up in that area. High temperatures Friday will range from near 60 in some of the N mountains to the mid 80s across the S. The SW extent of the wedge will play a big role in daytime highs in the Atlanta metro area. The current forecast is for highs in the upper 70s, but a rather tight gradient in temperatures will exist just to the NE. The wedge will also keep thicker cloud cover over NE GA. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Highlights: -The next opportunity for any appreciable rainfall holds off until next week. -Slightly above normal temperatures (excluding far NE GA) through the period. At the start of the long term period (Friday night) the forecast area will reside beneath mid-level ridging extending along much of the eastern CONUS with a wedge of high pressure building from the northeast. Some light rain showers will be possible across far northeast Georgia as a warm front lifts north and interacts with the wedge in place. As noted in the previous forecast discussions any notable rainfall and any thunderstorms looks to hold off until next week, though gradual moisture return in the way of increasing cloud cover can be expected through the weekend. The first of two low pressure systems will be tracking NE towards the Great Lakes Region on Saturday as midlevel ridging becomes more amplified. A secondary low pressure system, taking a similar track as the first, will develop along the stalled boundary and act to usher showers and thunderstorms into the forecast area. The current forecast has rain chances starting to increase across NW GA Monday night and persisting through Tuesday. Details will continue to become defined over the next several days. Beyond Tuesday some inconsistencies arise within the model guidance, though it looks like some light rain may continue until mid-week. Above normal temperatures are expected through the long term period for much of Central Georgia. Forecast highs will generally be in the upper 70s and 80s potentially reaching the low 90s by mid-week. Cooler temperatures can be expected for areas under the influence of the CAD wedge (across parts of North GA) on Saturday with forecast highs in the 50s/60s. Forecast lows will range from the 50s to low 60s through the period. 07 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning. The weak frontal band presently extends from MCN to CSG, with SCT-BKN clouds at around 6kft along with some high clouds. A few other high clouds are farther N around the Atlanta metro area. Some patchy fog is expected to develop near and S of CSG prior to daybreak, but have not included any significant vsby or cig restrictions at the terminal at this time. Winds will be light and fairly variable today. The wind direction at ATL is forecast to veer to NNE around 11Z this morning before shifting back to NW by early afternoon. However, due to the light nature of these winds, there is lower confidence. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium for wind shift timing, high for other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 80 55 75 58 / 0 10 10 0 Atlanta 80 59 79 62 / 0 20 10 0 Blairsville 75 51 68 55 / 0 10 10 10 Cartersville 79 55 79 61 / 0 20 10 0 Columbus 85 61 86 65 / 10 10 10 0 Gainesville 77 56 72 60 / 0 10 10 0 Macon 82 59 83 62 / 0 10 10 0 Rome 79 55 79 61 / 0 20 10 0 Peachtree City 81 57 82 62 / 0 20 10 0 Vidalia 84 60 83 62 / 0 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SEC ####018004193#### FXUS63 KILX 250835 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 335 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Waves of showers and storms will be seen Friday through Sunday. Storms could be severe at times and also bring heavy rainfall. - Temperatures will climb to near 80 this weekend, with extended outlooks favoring warmer than normal conditions continuing through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Light east winds under surface ridging and mostly clear skies has allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s early this morning. Cirrus tied to an upper shortwave diving south through Minnesota will spread into the area today, but otherwise dry and somewhat cooler than normal conditions will prevail. A more active weather pattern is in the works for later this week into the weekend as a pair of low pressure systems lift through the Plains states and Midwest. The first will be Friday into Saturday with the second Saturday night into Sunday night. The aforementioned upper ridge will shift into the eastern US and amplify, leaving southwest flow positioned overhead here locally. Temperatures will quickly warm through the weekend, approaching 80 degrees by Saturday. A wide open Gulf will advect higher dewpoints northward through the weekend, approaching 60 on Friday and middle 60s Saturday. A warm front will lift north through the area on Friday, with strong WAA sparking the develop of showers and storms Friday morning. Limited instability with the morning activity should keep the severe threat minimal. The surface low will enter Nebraska Friday evening as the negatively tilted upper wave catches up to it. As the LLJ ramps up Friday evening, convection will blossom along and ahead of a dryline boundary/front near the Kansas/Missouri border where the better instability will be. The LLJ and instability gradient will gradually spill into Illinois late Friday night, allowing storm activity to continue as it approaches. A few severe storms could occur during this time. Morning shower and storm activity could linger into Saturday morning as the surface low enters the Upper Mississippi Valley. A stationary front will stretch south of there into the central Plains with the second surface low spinning up near the Oklahoma panhandle. This second system will take a similar track as the first, but just a bit further east. The latest guidance shows us quickly destabilizing by the afternoon hours with a 50-70% chance for SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg west of I-55 and similar probabilities for bulk shear > 30 kts in that same area. Lack of forcing will likely keep most of the storm activity west of here throughout the day until the low pushes the stationary/cold front into western parts of our area later Saturday night. The threat for severe storms also exists Saturday night, but another concern is the threat for heavy rainfall due to training of storms through Sunday morning. The cold front will track slowly through the area Sunday into Sunday night, bringing yet another day of potential storm activity. Forcing will be the strongest on Sunday with the front in the vicinity, but lingering convection from the night prior could prevent us from fully destabilizing. Total precipitation through the weekend looks to range from 1 to 2 inches, though areas west of I-55 could see amounts higher than that. Temperatures stay mild through the new week with the Climate Prediction Center showing above normal temperatures sticking around through at least next weekend. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR conditions will be observed through the TAF period. Light east winds overnight will veer to the southeast Thursday morning with speeds around 10 kts. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for ILZ030-031- 038-043>046. && $$