####018008502#### FXUS63 KIND 072341 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 641 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday, transitioning to snow showers Wednesday evening through Friday - Arctic outbreak expected this weekend with low temperatures in the single digits and potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chill && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)... Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a weak trough stretching from PA, through the Ohio Valley and to Mississippi and Arkansas. High pressure was found over Minnesota and the Dakotas. GOES19 shows plenty of lower level stratus across Central Indiana. Radar showed this mornings light precipitation had exited the area to the east. Aloft, water vapor continues to show a quick flow across the CONUS, with NW flow primarily in place from the northern plains into the Ohio Valley. A weak trough within the flow was noted over the southern plains. Temperatures were mainly in the 30s. Tonight... Models suggest the weak upper trough moving through the southern plains will pass across KY and TN overnight. As this feature approaches, it will interact with the lingering moisture and surface trough across southern parts of Central Indiana. Forecast soundings across the southern parts of the forecast area tonight suggest saturation within the middle and lower levels. HRRR shows as these pass some snow showers will be possible, with small accumulations near an inch possible. Elsewhere...the high pressure system over the upper midwest will be building across Indiana. Time Heights show some persistent lower level moisture that will keep skies cloudy through the evening and into the overnight. Although some clearing is suggested, confidence in that is low, so will attempt to keep to a cloudy sky overnight. Cold air advection will be in play tonight, so look for colder lower temperatures in the teens. Monday... Dry and cold weather will be expected. Northwest flow is expected to persist aloft as an upper level weather disturbance passes within the flow aloft. Lower levels will remain quite dry as a broad area of high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Indiana. Forecast soundings show plentiful dry air within the mid and lower levels, but saturation aloft. Thus we will expect a partly cloudy sky due to some passing high clouds. A colder day will be in store as surface winds will be out of the east due to the high pressure system to the north. Temperatures will only reach the upper 20s to around 30. && .LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)... Issued at 258 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 The long term period features a brief warm up above freezing midweek before another arctic blast engulfs the region by the end of the week and into the weekend. Numerous weak weather systems pass through the Great Lakes this week, bringing periodic chances for light precipitation. Tuesday and Wednesday... Northwesterly flow aloft dominates the weather pattern through the week with numerous weak systems diving southeast within the active jet stream, bringing reinforcing shots of arctic air and light precipitation chances. The first in a series of waves traverses the upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with southerly winds bringing a brief period of relatively warmer air northward into Indiana. The best forcing for ascent and moisture should remain north of Central Indiana, closer to the main system, keeping the state mainly dry, but cloudy all day. A tightening surface pressure gradient and a stronger LLJ aloft result in breezy conditions during the day with gusts over 25-30 mph. "warmer" and windy conditions persist into early Wednesday morning as yet another system dives southeast into the lower Great Lakes on the heels of the first one. Southwesterly winds ahead of the surface cold front will make for a non diurnal temperature curve Tuesday night with temperatures steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The surface low and associated frontal boundary and precipitation look to be much further south than the previous system. Moisture profiles and forcing support light rain over Central and North Central Indiana early Wednesday morning, transitioning to a mix of rain and snow showers through the day as colder air advects in behind the front. Gusty southwest winds over 30 mph at times become west/northwest behind the front, keeping wind chill below freezing much of the day. Thursday into Next Weekend... A much colder, wintertime weather pattern takes shape late week and into next weekend as even stronger systems dive southeast out of Canada, bringing arctic air and snow chances with it. Mid to long range guidance depicts another weak mid level wave within the jet moving southeast into the region for the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Confidence is lower on this set up as the system looks fairly weak with little to no surface reflection. Canadian high pressure at the surface may also keep the lower levels fairly dry, limiting overall precipitation with this next system. Keeping snow showers in the forecast for Thursday, but expect changes within the coming days as the finer details become clearer. Whether this system produces light snow or not, the pattern still supports much colder temperatures with highs once again remaining below freezing for the majority of Central Indiana. Temperatures continue to trend colder each day going into the weekend as a much deeper trough sets up over the Great Lakes and an arctic high pressure at the surface advects in some of the coldest air of the season so far. Despite lower forecast confidence Thursday, there is high confidence in this arctic outbreak forecast for the weekend. This pattern supports very windy conditions Friday into Saturday as the high pressure dives southeast into the Midwest keeping wind chill values near or below zero for an extended period of time. High temperatures this weekend may struggle to get out of the teens with morning lows making a run for the zero degree mark. Will have to watch what happens Thursday as any accumulating snow before this arctic outbreak may result in temperatures much colder than what guidance currently depicts. Even with little or no snow pack, this incoming airmass supports widespread low temperatures in the single digits. Any additional snow pack may lead to sub zero lows, especially for North Central Indiana Saturday and Sunday nights. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 640 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Impacts: - Gusty winds near 20 kts through early morning hours. - MVFR ceilings to hold firm across southern TAF sites through the period. - Patchy drizzle possible with IFR conditions KBMG next few hours Discussion: IFR conditions still exist at KBMG, but ceilings have improved to MVFR at all the other TAF sites as gradual dry air works its way south from the Great Lakes. Ceilings are expected to improve in the next few hours at KBMG, while scattering out later tonight at KLAF and towards 12Z for KIND. Some patchy drizzle is also possible at KBMG before ceilings improve. in the wake of the cold front, winds have accelerated quickly this evening thanks to a modest pressure gradient behind the front. Gusts between 15-18 kts are expected to continue at all TAF sites the remainder of the evening, with a gradual reduction in speeds late tonight to under 10 kts. Wind directions from the N-NE will gradually become NE overnight as surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. As Boundary layer winds become E-SE tomorrow afternoon, the low cloud deck still over southern TAF sites will advect back to the N-W and help with a broken ceiling redevelopment for IND/LAF. Winds will generally be E-NE 5-8 kts during the day tomorrow with speeds decreasing through the period as the surface high pressure axis moves into adjust east of Indiana. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...CM AVIATION...Crosbie ####018003932#### FXUS64 KOHX 072341 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 541 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Low chances for light rain Sunday night. A few snowflakes possible late night as a cold front passes. No accumulations expected. - Next rain chance Wednesday night through Friday, possibly ending with some light snow showers. - Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving late week with frigid temperatures next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Stratus once again is making today another overcast day. I'm not sure we will be in the 50s for highs today with all the cloud cover if it persists. Some locations on the plateau have had sunshine until very recently, which makes me think that some spots that have seen more sun before the clouds came in could reach the low 50s today. The rest of us will remain in the 40s. Some rain chances will begin to impact Middle Tennessee in the evening hours, as a cold front moves in and pulls in just enough moisture to give us some rain, but not much. QPF amounts look pretty dry, with guidance suggesting probabilities for over a tenth of an inch of precipitation are slim (<20%). Overnight into Monday morning, this rain will changeover into flurries, but no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 After our dreary weekend, high pressure will build in through Wednesday morning, driving temperatures into the 50s for highs. This story changes mid-week, as a trough is expected to dig south and bring more rain chances to Middle Tennessee. Precipitation amounts with this system once again do not look like much in our area, with better chances for a wetting rain in the eastern part of the state. One notable thing is an arctic air mass from close to the arctic circle will be behind another cold front that will move through at the end of the week. We're still refining exacts with how cold we will get but it looks like this could be our first widespread run at the teens for lows this season. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Look for another night and another day with low ceilings across Middle Tennessee, with also some evening and overnight fog primarily along and near the Cumberland Plateau. An inverted surface trough has already slipped past the mid state, and an upper trough currently situated to our west will come through later tonight that looks to produce light precipitation, mainly across the Cumberland Plateau, hence the PROB30 remarks at KCSV and KSRB. Elsewhere, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. There isn't a great deal of antecedent moisture across the region, despite the persistent low clouds; the 00Z sounding from OHX shows a moist column up to ~800 mb, then much drier above. Expect low clouds to linger at least through Monday, with surface winds increasing from the NNW later this evening and persisting tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 37 43 28 51 / 30 10 0 0 Clarksville 34 41 27 50 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 34 39 23 48 / 40 20 0 0 Columbia 37 43 25 52 / 30 0 0 0 Cookeville 35 39 25 48 / 40 20 0 0 Jamestown 33 38 24 47 / 40 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 37 42 25 51 / 40 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 37 43 25 51 / 30 10 0 0 Waverly 34 41 26 50 / 10 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Rose ####018005161#### FXUS64 KBMX 072342 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 542 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 - Low to medium chances for fog with visibilities below one mile in east-central and southeastern portions of Central Alabama this evening. - Another round of light rain will move across all of Central Alabama overnight. - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below average, with an extended period of below freezing nights possible. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 540 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 Drizzle continues across some of our southeastern counties, causing some reduced visibilities at times. Patchy fog with visibilities below one mile has been observed in Georgia, with low to medium chances that it makes it into our far east- central/southeastern counties. Not expecting any widespread dense fog, however. Next shortwave is apparent on radar/water vapor imagery across the ArkLaMiss. This will bring another round of light to moderate stratiform rain overnight, and PoPs have been increased. Northerly winds are expected behind the cold front tomorrow. Some of the abundant low-level moisture will likely get trapped under a low-level inversion, so wouldn't be surprised if low clouds hang around longer tomorrow than some models are showing. Have therefore trended high temperatures downward for tomorrow. 32/JDavis Previous discussion: (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 Very thick cloud cover remains draped across the region, and will likely remain in place for the next day or two. The bulk of the moisture in our airmass is contained in this shallow layer of clouds. Given it's proximity to the surface, some showers and drizzle will be possible this afternoon, before more organized rain chances move in by tonight. This rain will be associated with the trough and cold front we've been mentioning for the last few days, with dry air moving quickly behind it. As such, rain chances will exit the forecast until closer to next weekend. Temperatures will slightly warm into the middle of the week, with Wednesday and Thursday still being our warmest days of this forecast period. However, this will all be ahead of a major pattern shift, setting the stage for perhaps our coldest stretch of temperatures yet. On Wednesday, a very deep low and trough will skirt the Great Lakes, bringing a frigid airmass with it. Over the next several days, a series of deep lows will follow similar paths, with each low dropping farther south than the other. This first system will work through our region on Thursday night, with the next big push over the Midwest taking place on Friday. Lows on Friday and Saturday will be well below freezing, with some locations falling into the teens. Given the depth of this cold air advection, afternoon highs on Saturday may not even climb out of the 40's for some people. Now, with all that being said, this forecast is tied to the depth of the trough, and how far south it drops. So if one of these lows doesn't deepen enough, or if one of them doesn't materialize, then the trough would stay farther north, keeping temperatures "warmer." However, there is already incredible consistency here. So even if it doesn't get as cold as advertised, we will still be looking at well below average temperatures across the region come this time next weekend. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025 Cigs are currently MVFR to IFR with patchy drizzle present, especially near AUO resulting in occasional reduced visibilities. Cigs will quickly lower back down to IFR this evening, and LIFR in spots especially AUO. Another batch of light rain will move through overnight. For Monday, northerly winds will develop. Cigs will lift to MVFR by mid-morning, but MVFR cigs may persist much of the day especially at at the northern terminals. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain remains in the forecast through tonight, as drier conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week. With that being said, MinRH values will remain above 50% into next weekend, and given all the recent rainfall, fire weather concerns will remain little to none for the next six days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 40 49 26 53 / 80 0 0 0 Anniston 41 50 29 54 / 90 0 0 0 Birmingham 42 49 29 53 / 90 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 44 52 29 55 / 90 0 0 0 Calera 41 52 29 55 / 80 0 0 0 Auburn 43 54 34 53 / 70 0 0 0 Montgomery 44 56 31 55 / 70 0 0 0 Troy 45 55 31 55 / 70 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...32/JDavis ####018003974#### FXUS64 KEWX 072342 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 542 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - In the wake of the dry cold front, breezy and gusty conditions are forecast this afternoon through the middle of this evening - A light freeze is forecast for portions of the Hill Country early Monday morning with dry weather continuing through the week. -Another dry cold front arrives across South Central Texas on Friday to cool temperatures for the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A dry cold front is pushing across the local area as of this 11:45 AM and based on latest observations, it has cleared the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and the northern portion of the I-35 Corridor. Today's highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s across most of the Hill Country, mid 60s to lower 70s along a Giddings to San Antonio to Del Rio line and 70s across the Coastal Plains and the southern part of the Rio Grande. In the wake of the frontal boundary, breezy northerly winds 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph are in store through at least the middle of this evening. The cold and dry airmass spreads across the local area tonight with overnight lows reaching the lower 30s across parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country while the rest of the area stays between the upper 30s and lower 40s. Plenty of sunshine is forecast for Monday with highs in the 60s area- wide. Not as cold as Monday morning, overnight lows for early Tuesday morning ranges from the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Dry weather conditions are forecast for Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. A surface trough/dry line is forecast to push across most of the local area on Wednesday. This feature allows winds to come from the south, southwest and west to promote warmer temperatures and as a matter of fact into the mid to upper 70s. A similar setup is forecast for Thursday with a stronger signal for warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Thursday night through Friday morning, an upper level shortwave is forecast to push across west Texas and then over the local area. This shortwave sends a cold front across South Central Texas during the morning period with northerly winds and a cooler airmass spreading over the local area in the wake of it. Dry and cooler temperatures are forecast for next weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Mostly clear skies are expected through the next 30 hours. Winds will become less gusty in the next couple hours with sustained speeds falling to below 10 knots over most areas by 03Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 38 61 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 38 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 39 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 35 60 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 41 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 35 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 40 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 38 63 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 38 60 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 42 64 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 43 65 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...18 ####018010710#### FXUS61 KBUF 072342 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Snowfall will taper off tonight as the low departs off towards New England, with just some lingering lake effect snow showers. Colder air wrapping in behind this system will make for a rather frigid but mostly dry start to the workweek. Increasing temps will accompany increasing winds and chances for snow and rain at times Tuesday into Wednesday. Unsettled weather lingers Thursday through the end of the week with persistent chances for snow, particularly east of the lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Synoptic snows east of Lake Ontario will taper off this evening with the low departing off towards New England. After that...some lake enhanced snows will linger for a bit, mainly focused southeast of the lakes as wind veer to the NW late this evening and tonight. Even so...not expected any real meaningful accumulations (2" or less) once winds become northwest. We should see a weakening lake response the rest of this evening as BUFKIT sounding profiles show moisture depleting fairly quickly as drier air works into the region. That said...where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued (Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego) we should also begin to see improving conditions as we head into the latter half of this evening. Otherwise...expect some passing snow showers at times with minor accumulations, 1" or less for most locales. Expansive sfc high pressure building squarely over the Great Lakes ahead of a mid-level ridge will bring mainly dry weather to the forecast area Monday and Monday night. There may be a spot snow shower near the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline Monday night as the flow becomes southwesterly with the passing ridge. Otherwise, it will be a cold start to the new workweek as 850H temps plummet to either side of -17C behind the cold front. This will translate to sfc high temps in the teens and low 20s Monday with single digit lows in most areas Monday night. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday and Tuesday evening high pressure will slide off the Atlantic coastline...while a compact but vigorous shortwave trough makes its way from the Upper Great Lakes to southern Quebec while also shearing out over time. At the surface...its corresponding modest surface low will also slowly weaken as it follows along a similar path...though at the same time will still manage to push its attendant warm front northeastward across our area. Isentropic upglide/DCVA out ahead of these features along with low level convergence at the nose of an associated 50-55 knot low level jet coupled with increasing moisture to produce scattered to numerous snow showers across the area between late Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening...with these lasting roughly 6-9 hours at any given location...and possibly ending with a little lake enhancement northeast of the lakes. Pcpn chances still appear to be highest near the Canadian border and lowest across interior portions of the Finger Lakes...with accums from the snow showers generally on the order of 1-2"...save for locally higher amounts of up to around 3" across the Tug Hill...and lower amounts of under an inch across the interior of the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise the warm advection pattern will result in high temps climbing back into the lower to mid 30s for the most part on Tuesday...though it will feel colder owing to an increasing south to southwesterly wind that will gust to 25-35 mph at times...with the highest gusts found from the Lake Erie shoreline northeastward across Niagara and northern Erie counties. This being said...the warm advection regime should help prevent the much higher winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The snow showers from this first system will barely have a chance to exit our area Tuesday night...before more widespread pcpn associated with the next (and notably stronger) surface low arrives for the second half of Tuesday night and Wednesday. With this package...the guidance suite continues to slowly converge on the idea of taking a nearly steady-state to slowly deepening low either over or just north of Lake Ontario between Wednesday and Wednesday evening...with its trailing cold front crossing the area Wednesday evening. Provided such a track actually verifies...this would result in widespread light to moderate snow overspreading the area later Tuesday night...with steady warm air advection then forcing a changeover to mainly rain across the lower elevations and a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain late Tuesday night and Wednesday... with the latter then changing back to all snow following the passage of the trailing cold front Wednesday night. While this scenario would result in only some minor accumulations at the lower elevations...it would be supportive of a longer period of accumulating (and potentially headline-worthy) snow across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Tug Hill/western Adirondack foothills...with the greatest accumulations most likely across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. With this in mind...we'll be adding a mention of this potential to the Hazardous Weather Outlook with this package. Also on Wednesday...yet another 50-55 knot low level jet will cross areas south of Lake Ontario in advance of the surface low/trailing cold front...though with widespread pcpn and steady warm advection in place thermal profiles again don't look favorable for fully mixing these stronger winds from aloft down to the surface. This being said...gusts to 30-40 mph still appear to be a reasonable bet at this point...with these again strongest closer to Lake Erie and across portions of the Niagara Frontier. Fortunately...the stronger winds aloft look to depart prior to the arrival of the trailing cold front...which would greatly limit the risk for any stronger winds in its wake. Following the passage of the cold front...a westerly to west- northwesterly flow of colder air will then overspread our region Wednesday night...with consensus 850 mb temps dropping to -10C to -12C by Thursday morning. This will allow for some areas of lake effect snow to develop east and east-southeast of the lakes...though a period of mid-level drying in the wake of the low/cold front may help to keep these at least somewhat limited in scope initially. Elsewhere...the synoptic pcpn should diminish to some leftover scattered snow showers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... In the longer term portion of the forecast...longwave troughing will deepen across the eastern two-thirds of North America Thursday through Friday night...then will remain in place through next weekend as additional shortwave impulses circulate through and enhance the mean larger-scale trough. During this time there will also be the potential for at least a couple of clipper-type systems to cross our region in association with the above-mentioned shortwave impulses...though timing and placing these features remains rather difficult this far out in advance...with plenty of variability noted in the track and timing of these features in the guidance over the past few days. Given the overall pattern...what is much more certain is that 850 mb temperatures will average between -10C and -15C throughout this period...thereby ensuring below normal temperatures and providing an environment thermally conducive for areas of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes. This being said...uncertainty in the evolution of the main low-level synoptic features and consequently the low level wind field precludes trying to pin down the location of these at this time range. Outside of any lake snows it will generally be dry...save for any snow showers/snow that might accompany the passage of the aforementioned clipper systems. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak low pressure will depart off towards New England this evening with synoptic snows ending across KART. With its departure...lake enhanced snows showers will at times impact terminals east and southeast of the lakes tonight as winds slowly veer to the NW. This activity may persist through much of tonight between KROC and KFZY. A more widespread improvement from MVFR/VFR to VFR with calming winds is anticipated for Monday as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR to IFR with increasing chances for light snow, possibly mixing with rain Tuesday night. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers. Breezy, with gusts 20-30kts in many areas. Gusts to 35kts possible at KBUF/KIAG. Thursday...VFR, with MVFR/IFR in scattered to numerous snow showers. Friday...MVFR/IFR east of the lakes with snow showers likely. MVFR/VFR outside the main lake effect areas. && .MARINE... Low pressure will depart off towards New England tonight with winds veering to the northwest. Small Craft Advisories are in effect as outlined below. High pressure will build across the lakes Monday, then shift southeast of the lakes Monday night. This will cause winds and subsequent wave heights to diminish before turning offshore. The offshore flow will increase and begin to turn southwesterly as another weak system moves east of the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday, which will then be followed by a more potent area of low pressure and LLJ further south on Wednesday. This may bring low-end gales to Lake Erie, with Wednesday being the more favorable setup between the two days. Westerly winds will subside below gales later Wednesday night into Thursday, though remain elevated through the end of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LOZ042>044. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Monday for LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/PP NEAR TERM...AR/PP SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...AR/PP MARINE...AR/PP ####018007321#### FXUS63 KLSX 072343 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 543 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mix of very light drizzle/rain and snow is possible this evening across the Ozarks and southwest Missouri, but impactful accumulations are not expected. - A round of light accumulating snow is possible (20-60%) Thursday, but confidence is low. - While tomorrow will be chilly, much colder temperatures are expected Thursday through the weekend, particularly Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 It has been a brisk, gloomy day throughout the area so far today, with breezy northerly winds and persistent low level cloud cover. While there are minimal potential hazards to discuss today, we do continue to keep an eye on the potential for light drizzle/sprinkles, and perhaps even some flurries/light snow showers later this afternoon. The primary driver of this latter potential appears to be weak upslope flow thanks to northerly winds moving atop the Ozarks, along with increasing low level saturation. So far this has only amounted to persistent low clouds and perhaps some faint fog, but most CAMS have latched onto the idea of some light precipitation developing in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois later in the afternoon and evening, roughly between 4 PM and midnight. Model soundings are somewhat varied, but all show some variation of a deep saturated layer developing in the low levels, perhaps up to about 5 to 7kft, albeit with very modest low level lift propped up a bit by upslope flow over the Ozarks. While there is some uncertainty as to whether or not this will be enough forcing alone to actually get precipitation development, there is just enough evidence to carry a mention of drizzle into the late evening hours, transitioning to light snow gradually after sunset as the profile cools enough to allow for cloud ice. Meanwhile, we will also need to keep an eye on a very limited potential for freezing drizzle, due to the fact that most model soundings (besides some CAMS) do not bring any part of the saturated layer to -10C or lower until very late in the evening. The primary concern here is that if surface temperatures cool below freezing before precipitation ends, and before cloud ice can form, then you have a recipe for a brief period of freezing drizzle/very light rain. To be clear, this is an unlikely (20% or less) worst-case scenario, and the chances of enough of this to form, stick to roads, and cause impacts are likely even lower. Meanwhile, almost all of the precipitation-producing CAMS generally transition from liquid rain directly to light snow. This is a lot of writing for something that is not likely to occur, but considering that FZDZ can be uniquely impactful when it does materialize, we felt that it was worth explaining in spite of the low probability. Overnight, steady cold air advection behind the front will slow as high pressure settles in, with morning temperatures likely dipping into the teens and 20s. Coldest temperatures are likely across northern Missouri and central Illinois, where skies are already clearing, winds will weaken, and snow cover remains. Monday is expected to be dry and cold as well, with afternoon highs only in the 30s. BRC && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 While we will get a reprieve from these chilly temperatures Tuesday, a series of cold fronts will usher in a much colder airmass over the latter half of the week. We may also see another potential for light snow accumulations on Thursday, although confidence in the latter remains low. For the next week, the synoptic pattern will remain relatively stable across the CONUS, with a nearly stationary longwave trough across the eastern CONUS, northwest flow atop the Mississippi Valley, and a steady stream of shortwaves moving through this northwest flow. While there will be several of these waves, there are two in particular that will impact our local weather. The first of these will move through the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, and it's primary impact will be to increase the pressure gradient and drive breezy southwesterly surface winds ahead of it Tuesday. Warm air advection will lead to a rapid jump in temperatures Tuesday, perhaps as much as 20 degrees higher than the day before in all areas that do not still have substantial snow cover. This would equate to highs reaching into the 50s in many areas, and perhaps as much as 5 to 10 degrees above average. On Wednesday though, a cold front will mute this warming trend, beginning a steady cooldown that will continue through the weekend. This initial front will not bring the coldest air with it just yet, though, as the second, deeper shortwave will drive the core of an arctic airmass into the area Thursday through Saturday, when the lowest temperatures are expected. While there remains some non- trivial ensemble spread in forecast temperatures, this has narrowed over the past 24 hours, and confidence is now very high that we will see temperatures dipping to around 20 to 30 degrees below average by Saturday. That equates to morning lows in the low teens to single digits almost everywhere by Saturday morning, and highs only in the teens and 20s later that afternoon. As for precipitation, the next reasonable opportunity does not arrive until Thursday when the second shortwave begins to impact the area. Even then, forecast precipitation amounts remain very light, and confidence is low to moderate that this precipitation will materialize locally (20-60% over 24 hours). However, temperatures will likely be cold enough to support snow if we do see precipitation from this system, and possibly enough to cause minor impacts if some of the higher percentile forecast amounts are closer to verifying. BRC && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A broad area of MVFR stratus stretches along and south of a line from KCOU to KPPQ. The clearing line was moving steadily southward earlier this afternoon, but has now halted or slowed to a crawl. Expect this to remain in place for the next few hours, but I think it will begin moving again after 06-08Z and continue moving southward through Monday morning. Another issue this evening is patchy drizzle across southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Currently seeing light returns on RADAR, mainly southeast of the St. Louis Metro area. This is likely patchy drizzle and/or snow flurries. While flurries shouldn't pose much of a problem to aviation interests, freezing levels are only a few hundred feet off the ground, and drizzle could pose an icing hazard for aircraft in flight this evening. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018003485#### FXUS64 KMEG 072343 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 543 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - There is a 30-50% chance of rain showers in north Mississippi this evening. - Temperatures will turn cooler early in the work week. Highs will remain in the 40s Monday, but moderate through Thursday. - An Arctic air mass will move into the Midsouth next weekend. Saturday morning lows are expected to be in the teens with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A weak cold front will move across the Midsouth this afternoon. A surface low will develop along the front as it approaches the Gulf Coast and an inverted trough associated with the low will result in a 30-50% chance of rain showers this afternoon and evening across northeast Mississippi. The current CONUS upper air pattern features a broad deep trough across the eastern two thirds of the Nation. Its axis is oriented from the Great Lakes into South Texas. Farther west a weak ridge is centered over California, Washington and Oregon. This general pattern will slowly shift to the east over the next 36 to 48 hours resulting in northwest flow across the Midsouth. During the same timeframe, at the surface, high pressure currently over the Northern Plains will shift over the northern Ohio Valley and a 1006mb surface low will move into northern Minnesota. The Midsouth will be mostly influenced by the southern extent of the surface high resulting in dry conditions early next week. High temperatures Monday will be in the 40s with a warming trend through Thursday. Wednesday into Thursday the surface low will deepen as it tracks across the Great Lakes. A series of cold fronts will sweep across the Midsouth late Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture ahead of these features will be limited, so any chance of rainfall will remain low(less than 25%) and any accumulation will be less than a few hundredths of an inch. Cooler conditions return Thursday with high temperatures by Friday mostly in the middle 30s to middle 40s. Conditions look frigid next weekend. Saturday is expected to be the coldest day, featuring morning lows in the teens to low 20s and highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 MVFR conditions are predominant at all sites except JBR as of 00Z TAF issuance. Confidence remains high for a gradual deterioration of MVFR ceilings to IFR conditions tonight as a cold front passes through the region. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve to MVFR conditions Monday morning and towards VFR conditions at JBR and MEM by Monday afternoon. A medium chance (30-40%) for rain showers will exist at TUP this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered showers this afternoon/evening and again Thursday, dry conditions are expected. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...CJC ####018011636#### FXUS61 KAKQ 072343 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 643 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure offshore and a passing disturbance aloft brings the chance for snow to mainly the southwestern half of the area on Monday. Mainly dry for Tuesday through Thursday, with shower chances increasing with the next cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Headlines have been issued for Winter Weather that is expected for much of the area Monday. Weak high pressure is currently centered across the VA coastal plain this aftn, with low pressure along the Gulf coast. A WSW flow prevails aloft. Low clouds and fog finally dissipated over most of the area early this aftn, allowing temperatures to rise into the low-mid 40s, though it remains overcast and in the 30s across the northern piedmont. For tonight, light wind and a variably cloudy sky this evening will tend to promote some quick cooling after sunset with the potential for patchy fog later in the evening, mainly inland. It will not be nearly as widespread and of the duration which occurred late last night and this morning since northerly winds begin to increase after midnight in the wake of a dry cold front. Low temps dip into the upper 20s to low 30s for most spots with mid and upper 30s near the coast in the far SE. The latest 12Z/07 model suite continues to trend stronger with the potential for a significant winter weather event for much of the region on Monday. Low pressure deepens off the Carolina coast early Monday. Aloft, a short wave trough traverses the local area Monday morning into the afternoon which will provide enough lift for precip across at least the southern half to two thirds of the area. 12z guidance continues to trend wetter vs previous runs with forecast QPF now varying from 0.20-0.40" overall. Strong (~1030 mb) sfc high pressure to the north will remain favorably located across NY state to supply a good feed of cold/dry air into the region, so went a little colder than the blended guidance and show temps holding roughly steady in the morning and then falling through the afternoon. There are some notable model differences with respect to the highest snowfall and QPF amounts, which yields uncertainty in the forecast- the RAP/HRRR are a little north of the consensus with respect to heavier snow and higher QPF which would suggest 3-4" snowfall amounts along and even to the N of I-64. In contrast, the ENS/GEFS/GEPS and deterministic ECMWF, GFS, CMC are farther south, with the highest probs for seeing 3-4" or more of snowfall across south central and interior SE VA. Confidence is rather high for 1-2"+ across most of the CWA so went primarily with Winter WX Advisories, with a small watch area along and S of route 460 and W of I-95 in south central VA where probs for >3" are well over 50%. Very cold temps aloft also argue for snow to liquid ratios to be higher than 10:1, especially in the afternoon as cold advection strengthens. Forecast soundings show saturation or supersaturation with respect to ice in the DGZ so expect most of the precip to fall as snow or perhaps a brief rain/snow mix at the onset. The far SE portion of the area remains problematic with colder air taking longer to arrive. Given the upward trends, included most of metro Norfolk in an Advisory, but left out VA Beach and Currituck NC where the warmer air hangs on the longest. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Snow ending Mon night, then dry and cold Tuesday, followed by milder temperatures Wednesday. Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with low temps in the mid teens west of I-95 with upper teens to the low/mid 20s to the east. Inland winds drop off by Tue AM so not anticipating wind chills to be much below actual air temperatures. Continued cold Tuesday with most inland areas likely not warming out of the 30s, with low 40s in the SE. Not as cold Tue night, and turning milder Wed as a deep upper trough amplifies across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with highs into the 50s for most. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM EST Sunday... - Trending cooler Thursday, with low-end precip chances Friday - Dry, but cold next weekend. Medium range models and ensembles remain in decent agreement that the later week timeframe trends colder with increasing rain chances Thursday night/Friday as the next system impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Next weekend looks dry and cold as high pressure builds in from the NW. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 PM EST Sunday... VFR conditions at all of the TAF sites to start off the forecast period. Most of the guidances suggests flight restrictions return with low stratus and fog after ~03Z, especially across interior portions of the forecast area. IFR CIGs (and/or fog) may try to work into RIC ~06z. As the cold front crosses the area, and northerly winds increase after midnight, and especially approaching daybreak Monday, it is expected that fog will dissipate (prior to 12Z), though MVFR to IFR CIGs probably continue. On Monday, NNE winds increase and become rather strong along the coast (gusting to 25-30 kt at ORF), with winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt elsewhere. Precipitation is expected to impact the area by later morning, bringing IFR to LIFR flight restrictions that will then last through the late aftn/early evening. RIC and PHF should see mainly snow from this event, but ORF/ECG are likely to see a period with -RA before changing over to snow later in the aftn, with snow as the main p-type Monday evening for any remaining precip that will linger along the coast. SBY may also see a period of snow Monday afternoon, but lower confidence compared to the remainder of the sites. Outlook: Drying out, but NNE winds remain breezy at the coast through Tuesday morning. VFR, with diminishing winds Tue aftn, then winds become SW on Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... - A Gale Warning is in effect for Monday for the coastal waters south of Parramore Island, including the Currituck Sound and Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, with Small Craft Advisories in effect in the remaining waters. - Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by additional elevated winds by the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure has settled across the local waters this afternoon, which has resulted in light and variable winds. Marine observation sites are measuring winds of around 5 kts and waves of less than 1 ft in the Bay and seas ranging between 2-3 ft in the Ocean. Marine conditions will rapidly deteriorate late tonight into early Monday morning as a cold front drops through the area. Winds will quickly increase as the gradient tightens between high pressure to the north that will be building southward across the region and an area of low pressure that will be skirting northeast off the Carolina coast. With the tightened gradient in place, combined with exceptional CAA expected in the wake of this front, strong to near-gale force winds are forecast for all coastal waters. Guidance has kept the strongest winds in the coastal waters south of Parramore Island, so have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for these coastal waters, as well as the Currituck and the mouth of the Bay. All other waters will see high-end SCA conditions for the event. There will likely be a brief period of gale-force gusts accompanying at least the initial push of this drier, colder air in waters outside of the Gale Warning, though these short duration gusts will likely be able to be covered by Special Marine Warnings. High pressure is forecast to build across the area late Monday night through Tuesday, and winds will quickly diminish in response. This reprieve from winds will be fleeting as another system approaches the region on Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts across the region and strong low pressure system advances northeastward across the Great Lakes. The gradient tightens significantly and the in-house probs for the coastal waters for wind gusts >=34 kts range between 50% to near 100% (highest farther offshore between 15-20 nm). Probs for sustained winds of 34 kts or greater remain relatively low, maxing out around 20% in the northern waters. As the aforementioned low lifts well north of the area on Thursday afternoon, winds will diminish to 10-15 kts through Friday morning. Yet another system is progged to approach the region by late week, bringing possibly another round of strong to near-gale conditions to the area. As winds increase on Monday, waves will rapidly build to 3-5 ft in the Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay) and seas will build to 6-9 ft in the Ocean (highest in the southern coastal waters). With the northeasterly wind direction during the day tomorrow, the southern waters wave heights may actually be slightly under done. Despite an expected downtrend in winds late Monday night through Tuesday, seas will be slower to subside and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge forecast for Wednesday. With southwesterly winds and shifting to a WSW direction by Wednesday afternoon, forecast wave heights generally range between 4-7 ft in the coastal waters (may briefly reach 8ft in the northern coastal waters) and 3-4 ft in the Bay. Seas will drop briefly below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon before trending upwards again by late week into the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for NCZ012>014-030. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for NCZ015-016-031-032. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for VAZ084-086-088>090-092-093-096-523>525. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for VAZ095-097-100. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for VAZ048-062-083-085-509>512-517-518-520. Winter Storm Watch from 6 AM EST Monday through Monday afternoon for VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for VAZ061-068-069-081-082-513>516. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-650-652. Gale Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ633-634-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/RHR LONG TERM...LKB/RHR AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...MAM/NB ####018005207#### FXUS63 KOAX 072344 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 544 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flurries and light snow showers are possible (20-40% chance) this afternoon and early evening, mainly across northeast Nebraska. - A brief warmup is expected Monday into Tuesday, with highs in the 30s on Monday, rising to the 40s and low 50s on Tuesday. - Precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday (25-50%), followed by a return to cooler conditions by the end of the workweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Tonight through Tuesday... Water vapor imagery and objective analysis this afternoon depicts a broad, mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, while riding continues to build into the western CONUS. At the surface, a corridor of high pressure stretching from the SD/ND/MN border into northeast NE is being pushed eastward as a shortwave disturbance pushes into central NE/SD. Ahead of the wave, continued CAA and mostly cloudy skies has kept afternoon highs in the chilly 20s. The passage of the wave later this afternoon into early evening will bring a chance for light snow, with PoPs ranging from 20-40%. Forcing for ascent is strongest along the NE/SD border and diminishes to the south, so light snow chances decrease moving into southeast NE and southwest IA. QPF remains limited, generally under 0.05", so accumulations are expected to be a light. A dusting is most likely, though a narrow swath in northeast Nebraska could approach a quick 0.5" (20% chance). The primary impact will be a few slick spots and minor reductions in visibility under any snow showers that are able to hold together. Following the wave's passage, surface winds will shift to southerly, allowing warmer air to return to the region. A shift to zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will also support some additional downslope warming. Cloud cover will begin to break up and improve overnight, allowing radiational cooling to bring overnight lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. Monday afternoon highs will climb into the 30s and low 40s. The warming trend will continue into Tuesday, with highs reaching the 40s and potentially the low 50s in east-central Nebraska. The upper-level pattern will remain active, but any significant wave passages and associated precipitation will largely remain north and east of the area. A clipper system passing to the our north from midday Tuesday into early Wednesday will tighten the surface pressure gradient, producing northwesterly wind gusts of 30-35+ mph. Wednesday and Beyond... A pattern shift is expected Wednesday into Thursday as a shortwave disturbance pivots around the larger eastern CONUS trough and moves into the region, bringing a ribbon of enhanced vorticity and frontogenesis. Highs will dip into the 30s on Wednesday as precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday, with PoPs of 25-50% in place. Precipitation is likely to begin as a rain/snow mix before transitioning to all snow. GEFS and EPS/EPS-AIFS ensemble members are generally in agreement of a 1-2" band of snow tracking from the Dakotas into eastern NE, though confidence is lower for how far south the band will reach, as the strongest forcing for ascent remains to the north. Ensemble guidance indicates a 20-40% probability of 1" of snow across northeast Nebraska, decreasing to around 10% along the I-80 corridor. Behind this system, a second surge of cool Arctic air will settle in under strong north-northwesterly flow aloft, pushing Friday and Saturday highs down into the teens across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Models have not been performing well forecasting cigs today, so confidence isn't as high as usual in forecast ceilings overnight. Right now we're seeing MVFR cigs out west expand eastward as a band of light snow continues across eastern Nebraska. This should continue to dissipate as it continues eastward, but KOMA and KLNK could see a brief period of flurries at the terminals reducing visibility to around 3-4 SM. As this dissipates, models forecast that cigs may improve just behind the line, cigs around FL035 at KOFK and KOMA later this evening. Meanwhile, cigs are more pessimistic at KLNK with a higher percentage of model guidance suggesting cigs remain MVFR through the overnight hours into Monday morning. There is some suggestion that cigs may go down even more at KLNK, and KOMA may drop back to MVFR around 10-12Z Monday morning. Went ahead and indicated that in the TAFs as enough model guidance show this, but we should start seeing cigs clear out towards 17-18Z with VFR conditions at the terminals through the end of the TAF period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...McCoy