####018005487#### FXUS64 KMAF 190455 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A cold front is ahead of schedule and currently moving through the Permian Basin putting an abrupt halt to daytime heating. There is a marked difference in temperatures where ahead of the front readings are in the 90s while behind the front they range from the 80s all the way down to the upper 60s. Gusty north to northeast winds will continue overnight dropping temperatures down into the 40s and 50s. Moisture that was in place ahead of the front has not been pushed out of the area, but lifted aloft over the colder airmass behind the front. This will become evident later tonight when 850mb winds veer around from the south and provide enough lift to create extensive low clouds. The low clouds will prevent much diurnal variation in temperatures Friday suggesting MAV guidance is too optimistic. By contrast the MET is showing much cooler temperatures, which may occur, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is so stayed close to the NBM guidance which is about an even split between the GFS and NAM. Mid-level flow begins backing from a more southwesterly direction during the day on Friday further enhancing lift enough that scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop in the Big Bend Friday afternoon and spread north overnight encompassing the entire CWA by sunrise Saturday morning. The rainfall during this time period will be light and accumulations will generally be below a tenth of an inch until rainfall increases in the long term. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 By 12z Saturday morning, the cold front will have surged to at least the higher terrain in our far southern/western zones. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough approaches from the west on Saturday with plenty of available moisture in place behind the cold front. The clear indication of this is rainfall chances, however there remains a large discrepancy in the global models/ensembles and the higher resolution (convective allowing) models that we are just edging into the range of as it regards to expected rainfall coverage/location. The global models are much more bullish with rainfall coverage and amounts for the Permian Basin but the more trusted high resolution models for this scenario are much more skeptical with coverage. Initially, isentropic ascent Friday into Saturday could instill a more stratiform regime with light rainfall over a larger area, however, as the upper trough approaches, more elevated instability develops and storm mode could transition to feature more elevated instability. The thinking is that the best chances for rain Saturday afternoon will come for the east-central Permian Basin although there still remains uncertainty in coverage/rain amounts. Either way, the progressive nature of the shortwave brings in drier air and subsidence throughout the day on Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday will be largely dictated by the clouds and precipitation, with many spots in the Permian Basin seeing little to no warming with highs only topping out in the 50s and low 60s with 70s/80s along/south of highway 90. Some moderation comes on Sunday but cool conditions linger until Monday when less cloud cover allows warming back into the 70s and 80s. For the early to middle part of next week, upper level flow stays relatively light with weak ridging in place. Lee troughing at the surface brings the return of southerly flow as early as Monday, keeping dewpoints of 40-50+ degrees in place. This could bring about some diurnally-driven convection across the Big Bend on Monday with perhaps some more disturbed weather arriving with the next trough Wednesday/Thursday. Temperatures return above normal by Tuesday. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Latest surface obs indicate the front has made it through all terminals, and northeasterly flow will continue next 24 hours. All models indicate a stratus deck developing late tonight E-W, w/NBM suggesting MVFR cigs all terminals for at least a few hours Friday. Cigs should scatter out to VFR sometime during the afternoon all terminals, but may redevelop near the end of the forecast period KMAF/KINK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 83 49 66 50 / 0 0 10 70 Carlsbad 87 52 71 54 / 0 0 0 30 Dryden 97 64 78 63 / 0 10 30 50 Fort Stockton 95 57 73 59 / 0 0 30 40 Guadalupe Pass 83 52 68 54 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 78 47 65 48 / 0 0 10 50 Marfa 87 48 80 51 / 0 0 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 85 51 65 52 / 0 0 10 60 Odessa 84 53 66 54 / 0 0 10 60 Wink 88 54 71 55 / 0 0 10 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44 ####018006093#### FXUS62 KJAX 190456 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1256 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Only minor changes to the forecast for the rest of the evening, as a majority of mid and upper level clouds continue to dissipate. Clouds will return overnight as a weak upper level shortwave moves across the area. Some patchy fog will be possible near the Suwannee River and near/west of I-75 area towards the morning hours. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure ridging still covers the region but will slowly make its way out temporarily this evening and overnight as a weak surface trough pushes in. Mid level shortwave troughing will increase the cloud cover to be partly cloudy this afternoon, clearing out in some areas tonight to mostly clear skies. Winds inland will be light and mainly from the west with the Atlantic sea-breeze bringing winds in around 10-15 mph to coastal areas and up to the I-95/US 17 corridor. Inland temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal temperatures staying slightly cooler due to the sea breeze. Nighttime temperatures will be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure ridging continues after the weak surface trough passes overnight with another weak trough passing through for Friday night. Patchy inland fog is possible in areas of the Suwannee Valley early Friday morning and should dissipate by mid morning. The Gulf coast sea-breeze will make its way inland pinning the Atlantic sea-breeze along and east of I-95. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s staying in the upper 80s along the coast due to the sea-breeze. Saturday, a cold frontal boundary approaches the region bringing more moisture into SE GA (PWAT values of 1.6-1.7") and pushes the weak high pressure ridging south. This will allow chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for SE GA in the afternoon and evening. Daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with night time temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Increased chances for precipitation Sunday afternoon and into the evening as a frontal boundary slowly makes its way through the region, exiting and moving south by Monday evening. High pressure fills in behind the front for Tuesday creating drier conditions for Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will cool into the mid 70s to low 80s behind the front for Monday before gradually warming up again into the mid to upper 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 VFR conditions expected at all fields for forecast period. Some light mist is possible toward sunrise at KVQQ and KGNV (the usual suspects) with 4-5SM BR the most likely conditions between 09-13 UTC. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure ridging continues over the local waters today but will move southward Friday as a cold front makes its way into the southeast. The cold front will dip toward the GA/FL line and stall through the rest of the weekend. This front will then push southeast through the local waters Sunday night and early Monday. Rip Currents: Moderate chance for Rip currents today and Friday as Southeast/Onshore sea breeze winds continue during the afternoon/early evening hours both days with surf/breakers around 2-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Conditions continue to be dry today and Friday with chances for rain increasing for the weekend. Today, light west to southwest winds 5-10 mph inland with coastal areas up to the I-95/ US 17 corridor receiving winds 10-15 Knots from the Atlantic Sea-breeze. Friday will see a similar pattern as the Gulf sea-breeze moves well inland to US 17, pinning the Atlantic sea-breeze closer to I-95. Min RH values will be above critical values today near 39-45 percent. Low daytime dispersion expected along the coast due to low mixing heights from the marine air behind the Atlantic sea- breeze today and Friday. Patchy areas of high dispersions will occur Friday and Saturday as mixing heights increase with hotter temperatures into low 90s and elevated transport winds from the west. Isolated to scattered showers will develop over Southeast Georgia Saturday and Sunday as a front hangs just to the north. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels. Record High Record High Average First Date Friday 4/19 Saturday 4/20 to Reach >= 90F Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 92/1995 92/1995 April 25 Craig Field, FL (CRG) 91/2013 91/2002 April 22 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 94/2011 94/1892 April 21 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 91/1968 93/1968 May 2 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 67 90 65 / 0 0 40 20 SSI 86 67 86 66 / 10 0 20 20 JAX 91 65 91 65 / 0 0 20 10 SGJ 89 65 91 65 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 90 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 90 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018006065#### FXUS64 KMOB 190458 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1158 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Another round of IFR to LIFR ceilings will spread inland from around mid-evening until a couple of hours past midnight and persist until around mid-morning Friday. Patchy to occasional areas of fog potentially reducing the visibility to IFR thresholds or lower at times between 08-14Z. VFR ceiling and visibility conditions will then return through the remainder of the forecast. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR AND SHORT TERM... (Now through Saturday night) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Weak shortwave ridging embedded within zonal flow aloft continues to extend across the north central Gulf Coast region this afternoon. A surface ridge of high pressure also continues to nose westward across the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The combination of weak ridging aloft and moist southerly surface flow is allowing for warm and humid conditions across our region. Skies remain mostly cloudy this afternoon with abundant mid/upper level moisture spreading overhead. A few lower level cloud decks are also persisting along the coast. The main weather impact of concern tonight will be the potential for patchy to areas of fog development, especially after midnight as light S/SW flow continues to bring rich low level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees into the area, while mid/upper level decks potentially decrease in coverage somewhat late. SREF probabilities of visibility less than a mile continue to increase, with some of the CAMs showing decent coverage of fog, some potentially locally dense, across central and southern portions of the forecast area. We have mention of patchy to areas of fog overnight into early Friday morning and will let later shifts assess visibility trends for possible advisory issuance. Fog should lift by 9 AM or so with another warm and humid day expected on Friday. A surface cold front should move into central portions of MS and into northwest AL by Friday afternoon before potentially entering or stalling over our far northern zones Friday night. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within zonal flow aloft may provide enough ascent to bring a small chance of light rain showers or possibly a thunderstorm over our far northern CWA Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this feature. Another round of patchy to areas of fog development will be possible again across much of our region Friday night. The surface boundary may push a little further south into interior portions of our area on Saturday. Increased deep layer moisture and ascent in association with a series of shortwave impulses should allow for more scattered coverage of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, especially over interior areas north of I-10 on Saturday. Additional showers and storms may impact locations along and west of I-65 ahead of the next shortwave trough late Saturday night. Lows tonight and Friday night should generally range in the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate coast. Highs Friday will be quite warm in the mid to upper 80s over interior locations and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Highs Saturday may trend slightly cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows by Saturday night will fall into the 50s over interior southeast MS/southwest AL behind the front, and trend a little warmer in the lower to mid 60s near the coast. A MODERATE rip current risk continues through Friday along area beaches and drops to LOW this weekend. /21 EXTENDED TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day Sunday. Sunday will be the only chance for rain as a very weak and subtle subtropical impulse will move across the westerly flow. This will lead to a rather small window of ascent over the area along the slowly sagging surface boundary draped across the area. Expect overrunning rain and maybe some thunder across the area Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The surface cold front will move offshore leading to drier conditions returning. Dry northwesterly flow will temporarily work its way into the area monday leading to a cooler and drier forecast through the middle of the week. Behind the front temperatures will drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows before steadily increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for lows by Thursday. BB/03 MARINE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 No significant marine impacts through the weekend as light to occasionally moderate onshore flow continues. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near thunderstorms Sunday. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 84 66 84 61 71 48 75 / 10 0 0 20 20 70 10 0 Pensacola 67 81 66 81 65 75 53 76 / 10 0 0 10 10 60 20 0 Destin 67 78 67 79 66 75 56 75 / 10 0 0 10 10 60 20 0 Evergreen 63 86 63 84 58 71 46 75 / 10 0 0 30 20 70 10 0 Waynesboro 65 87 63 80 53 64 44 74 / 20 0 0 40 40 80 10 0 Camden 63 85 62 80 53 65 45 72 / 20 20 10 40 40 70 10 0 Crestview 63 86 62 86 61 77 48 77 / 10 0 0 20 10 60 20 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob