####018007976#### FXUS61 KAKQ 140550 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 150 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. The severe weather threat for Sunday remains with a 30% wind probability for much of the local area. 00z Taf was updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon to late evening. 2) A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 340 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon to late evening. The stationary front that crossed the area overnight has stalled as a stationary front to our south. This front will push back north tonight, keeping temperatures mild overnight. This will also bring a chance of showers to to the far south near the Ablemarle Sound this evening. Overnight temps will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow and dewpoints in the 70s returns area-wide from the warm front lifting back north on Sunday. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night providing a strong forcing mechanism that will be able to overcome any environmental capping. Combined with the unstable airmass, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the area. The latest model package continues to show MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg with steep lapse rates >6.0 C/km. Additionally, there will be more shear present that last night's storms with averages around 30 to 40 kts. Putting it all together, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms remains over almost the entire local area. There was some collaboration with SPC about possibly upgrading to an Enhanced Risk, but after collaboration with SPC and neighboring offices, SPC has continued the Slight Risk. Cannot rule out an upgrade with future outlooks, given current model trends. The main threat with any storm is damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph+. A few discrete/supercells may also develop ahead of the main front Sunday afternoon-evening, bringing at least a low-end potential for large hail and even an isolated tornado. Finally, locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially over urban areas. Given the wind profiles, training storms are not expected and storms will likely move fast, so any flash flooding will be isolated. WPC has expanded the Day 2 ERO to cover the eastern half of the area, excluding the Eastern Shore in a Marginal Risk of flash flooding. The cold front moves through a majority of the area Sunday night bringing cooler/drier air and ending the threat for any severe weather. However, in typical fashion for the summer months, the front likely stalls near the coast allowing for unsettled conditions to continue into early next week. Temperatures will increase behind the warm front overnight, with highs climbing back into the mid 90s for the area (lower 90s along the immediate coast) on Sunday. Although humidity builds back in, heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s Sunday afternoon. The potential for meeting Heat Advisory criteria is highest across southside Hampton Roads and into northeast North Carolina. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week. An upper trough develops over the eastern half of the US early next week. In addition, the front from Sunday lingers near eastern portions of the area bringing continued chances for showers or thunderstorms into Monday across S/SE portions of the forecast area. Rain chances/cloud cover likely expands a bit further N/NW on Tuesday. Cooler conditions are expected through at least the first half of next week with high temperatures Monday near to slightly below average, ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south (upper 70s to around 80 Eastern Shore). Temperatures may stay in the upper 70s for a majority of the area on Tuesday with the increase in cloud cover, precipitation chances, and onshore flow. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of next week as the trough begins to break down. Thursday may approach Heat Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail into the early afternoon hours. Winds become southerly this morning, with occasional gusts to ~20 knots later this morning throughout the afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms develop around or after 20z across southern and western portions of the area, spreading east throughout the afternoon/evening. Some storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, winds may gust in excess of 35 knots with storms. PROB30 groups have been added to all sites due to the scattered nature of the storms and uncertainties on specific timing at each site. Storms taper to rain showers late in the period, especially closer to the coast. MVFR CIGs potentially develop late in the period. Outlook: VFR/dry conditions return to all sites by later Monday morning . Becoming more unsettled on Tuesday, with the potential for MVFR CIGs, especially at the eastern TAF sites. Primarily dry/VFR conditions return for Wednesday through the first half of Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Mainly Sub-Advisory conditions expected through Sunday, with a surge of northerly winds bringing the potential for low-end SCAs Monday in the Bay. A stalled boundary had moved well south of the area, with weak sfc high pressure in place. E-NE winds average 5-10 kt this aftn, with seas only 1-2 ft and waves generally ~1 ft in the Bay. The winds remain ~10 kt or less overnight, and shift to the S. Another cold front approaches the region Sunday, bringing a round of thunderstorms (mainly late in the aftn/evening) that could contain locally severe wind gusts. Outside of storms, S-SE winds increase to ~15kt over the bay and rivers and 15-20kt over the coastal waters during the afternoon, becoming SW Sunday evening. Local wind probs are rather low for 18 kt sustained winds in the Bay (20-30%), and with the typical bias with southerly flow will not be issuing any headlines through Sunday, though SMWs will likely be needed with convection. Seas increase to 3-4ft, up to 5ft well past 20 nm. Winds turn to the W behind the front (~15kt) late Sunday night, then to the N Monday morning. Models tend to underestimate these northerly surges, and latest wind probs have increased to >50% over much of the Bay Monday morning as some of the high res models are starting to have an influence in the forecast. Too early to issue headlines, but think there is a good chance for short- lived SCAs for the Bay and possibly the sound and lower James Monday. Seas will average 2-4 ft Monday, and 2-3 ft in the Bay, with diminishing waves/seas by Mon afternoon. Tides: Elevated southerly winds along with high astro tides will lead to minor/nuisance flooding into the MD eastern shore portions of the Bay Sunday evening/night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AC/LKB ####018007007#### FXUS63 KSGF 140551 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1251 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph will be the primary severe risk, with hail and brief tornadoes as secondary hazards. - A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday morning. Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall through tonight due to recent heavy rains, elevated streamflows, and saturated soils. - Active weather returns from mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Synoptic & Mesoscale Overview: A closed upper-level low was slowly pivoting northeast toward the Hudson Bay, with the attendant surface cold front extending south-southwest through the Midwest and into the Plains. A second, more diffuse front (from morning convection) was draped across central and eastern Missouri. A remnant outflow boundary was located across far southern MO and northern AR. Scattered Storms this Afternoon: A glance at satellite shows partial clearing across southern Missouri in the wake of the morning precipitation along with somewhat agitated cumulus along the aforementioned outflow boundary across southwest MO and northern AR. Guidance has wobbled on how much--or even if--convection initiates this afternoon, but this area (roughly along and south of Highway 60) will be the location to watch for a scattered severe thunderstorm risk between 1pm and 5pm. With effective bulk shear of 30-40+kt and sufficient destabilization (the big question mark), supercells capable of producing isolated hail to golf balls and damaging wind gusts. Overall confidence in occurrence is low. Enhanced Severe Risk this Evening and Tonight: The higher confidence severe thunderstorm risk is late this evening into tonight. Initial supercells are likely to develop ahead of the cold front in northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas, and southwest Iowa amidst steep lapse rates, moderate deep-layer shear, and rich moisture. Upscale growth into clusters and linear segments is likely as the front pushes southeast into southwest Missouri and our southeast Kansas counties. If storms can remain discrete, hail up to golf balls will be possible along with damaging winds. As storms grow upscale, damaging winds will be the primary hazard. Bowing segments will be capable of producing gusts of 70-80 mph. Low-level shear will initially be modest but increase with time as the low-level jet increases, so a few tornadoes will also be possible. Storms will gradually diminish in intensity as they push through southwest Missouri with waning instability, possibly becoming outflow- dominant. Timing: Storm time of arrival has slowed slightly over the last 12 hours. Guidance suggests the leading edge of the line/clusters reaches southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri between 9pm and 11pm, the I-44 corridor between 11pm-2am, and south-central MO between 2am-5am. Flood Risk Tonight: The Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall across much of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Southwesterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the area ahead of the cold front, with models pegging PWATs at a soupy 2.2 to 2.4". Rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be possible with the strongest updrafts. Guidance continues to depict a widespread 1-3 inches in total with localized pockets near 6 inches, which would result in flash flooding. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Sunday-Monday: Drier air will filter in behind the cold front on Sunday. Apart from a few light showers that linger Sunday morning, mostly dry conditions will persist through Monday along with pleasant (below average) temperatures in the mid 70s. Storm Chances Return Mid-week: Ensembles depict a shortwave trough pivoting through the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening 500 mb jet. Low- confidence rain chances exist late Tuesday into Wednesday as a diffuse warm front lifts into the area. Better thunderstorm chances arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Global models depict strong destabilization occurring ahead of the front within a corridor of stronger shear under the enhanced 500 mb flow, which may support the development of strong storms. SPC has highlighted a broad 15% risk for severe weather across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Indeed, AI and machine learning guidance show a signal for severe storms in a similar area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Thunderstorms over the region will continue to push southeast, bringing eventual VFR conditions by late morning today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Setting the stage, many areas across western MO and southeast KS have received over 2 inches of rainfall and localized areas received over 6 inches of rain in the past seven days. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area, excluding the far southeast Ozarks for a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized higher amounts. For elsewhere outside of the watch, those areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rain. Localized higher amounts are depicted with the latest HREF LPMM showing corridors 5 to 7 inches. The exact locations of these corridors will vary and will be best captured as the event unfolds. The Weather Prediction Center captures the heavy rain and flash flooding potential with a Moderate Risk (3 of 4) for today and overnight into Sunday morning. From a heavy rainfall/flood potential environment, the atmosphere will be conducive for efficient rainfall rates as PWATs push towards 2 inches. This will support rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per a hour within thunderstorms. It is worth noting that rivers are elevated going into this evening, with soil moisture between 20-40% for most areas in the Flood Watch. One hour FFG of 1 to 2 inches could quickly be exceeded as thunderstorms progress through the area. Given the setup in place, locally considerable flash flooding, along with "isolated moderate river flooding" (per the National Water Center) are in the forecast for today through tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Titus HYDROLOGY...Perez ####018004359#### FXUS64 KBMX 140552 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026 - Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are forecast over the entirety of next week, with localized higher amounts possible. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026 A decaying convective complex has made its way into Northwest Alabama from Western Tennessee and Northern Mississippi this evening. Cloud tops have warmed significantly and lightning activity has gone from quite the show over Mississippi to minimal currently. Some moderate to heavy rain continues, but rates are expected to decrease as the area moves eastward. Our first surface boundary from earlier has pushed northward and fizzled out, but it did help as a focus for some of today's convection originating to our north. A second front that is currently stretched from the Great Lakes to Missouri and back to the Texas Panhandle will push east across Eastern Conus and should move into the northwest portions of Alabama by sunset Sunday. This will account for another round of increased convection for Sunday into Monday. This front is also expected to stall across the southern tier of Alabama after it slowly works its way southward for the first half of the week. Temperatures will decrease behind the surface boundary some, but that will be more due to increased post front cloud cover and rain chances than a true cold airmass. We are not expected to dry out across much of the area behind it. Rain chances will stay elevated for many, especially the southern two thirds of Central Alabama with broad upper troughing expected along with disturbances interacting with the lingering boundary. Onshore moisture increases for the second half of the week with the front decaying. Toward the end of the week yet a 3rd frontal system approaches to keep elevated rain chances going into next weekend. Overall QPF has increased from the latest guidance for the week. What was once 2-4 inches, now may end up being closer to 3-6 inches by the end of our 7 day forecast. Roughly 1-2 inches may occur for days 1-3, with an additional 2-4 for days 4-7 with a few locally higher amounts. As we get closer to mid week, we will be looking closely at this guidance for the potential for flooding and resulting watches. 08 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026 VFR conditions are generally expected through most of the 24 hour forecast. A convective complex of storms has moved out of Western Tennessee and Northern Mississippi into Northwest Alabama. The complex has deteriorated significantly over the last couple of hours. This trend is expected to continue. Will forgo mention in BHM, TCL and EET at this time with a low probability of impacts at those sites, but will monitor closely for any necessary amendments during the pre-dawn hours. There is a low to moderate chance for afternoon convection again on Sunday. PROB30s are mentioned for all. Some MVFR cigs are expected during the late night hours across the northern counties on Sunday night. I only have at BHM for now by 4z. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances increase on Sunday and continue into early next week as a front slowly moves across the region. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 68 82 64 / 60 50 20 30 Anniston 89 70 81 66 / 50 50 30 50 Birmingham 91 70 82 66 / 50 50 40 50 Tuscaloosa 92 72 82 68 / 30 40 80 60 Calera 94 71 84 67 / 40 50 80 60 Auburn 92 73 84 69 / 40 50 80 70 Montgomery 93 74 84 70 / 30 40 90 80 Troy 93 74 85 70 / 30 30 90 80 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08 ####018006354#### FXAK67 PAJK 140552 AAA AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 952 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance. && SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday and Monday as a stronger system pushes across the entire panhandle. - Slow drying trend from N to S next week; with widespread warm weather and drier conditions likely by late in the week and over the weekend. SHORT TERM.../Saturday Through Monday/...Rain continues to be the big story through Monday across SE AK as an upper level shortwave trough races through. As of Saturday afternoon a front pushing inland has led to widespread rain overrunning most of the northern and central panhandle, as well as the southern outer Gulf coast. Rainfall rates will diminish through the remainder of Saturday, before increasing once more Saturday night across the northern half of the panhandle as a plume of moisture moves through. As the system moves off to the E on Sunday, expect widespread rainfall to spread across the rest of the area. Chances of rain continue through the remainder of the short term, although by Monday the best chances will be for the southern half of the panhandle and for more interior areas (like Juneau). Increased QPF totals in the forecast, but still expect that the NBM generally has the right trends, albeit perhaps slightly under doing precip. Anticipate 2-4 inches for Yakutat, 1-2 inches for areas north of Sumner Strait, and 0.5 to 1.5 inches for the southern panhandle through Sunday night. On Monday, another 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain are expected, mostly for the Icy Strait Corridor southward. LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/... An area of high pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska, and this will lead to onshore flow and a general warming and drying trend for Southeast Alaska. Shower chances will stick around as a weak disturbance brings showers in from the West. A low pressure system in the Western Gulf of Alaska will lead to the high pressure to strengthen in the Central Gulf by Thursday. On the east side of the ridge, winds of 20-25 kts are expected on the southwest side of Prince of Wales island. With generally warm and dry conditions, seabreezes with daytime heating are expected beginning Thursday. As the ridge brings sinking air next Friday and Saturday, high temperatures will warm into the low-to-mid 70s across the area. AVIATION.../Through 06z Sunday/...The dry slot of the system has moved into the area this evening which has mostly shut off the rain for a time and allow conditions to improve to MVFR or better, but some showers are occasionally dropping ceilings and vis down to IFR or lower for brief periods of time. However, the next front (which is stronger then today's front) will be moving into the northern half of the panhandle late tonight. heavier rain with MVFR or lower vis and ceilings is expected to start up along the NE gulf coast as early as around midnight and spread inland from there from Frederick Sound northward. Yakutat will bare the brunt of the rainfall with vis and ceilings possibly dropping to IFR early Sunday morning and continuing into the day before it moves E toward Sunday evening. Low level wind shear (mainly of the speed variety with 2000 ft AGL winds reaching 40 kt out of the SE) and turbulence will likely be an issue along the NE gulf coast Sunday morning as well. Meanwhile the southern panhandle will stay mostly VFR through Sunday before the front moves into that area by Sunday evening with MVFR ceilings possible as the rainfall moves in. MARINE... Outside (Eastern Gulf): For the weekend, gale force winds along the northern coast, fresh seas as high as 20 ft, and heavy rain are the main threats. Further detail: Winds will ebb a bit Saturday afternoon in the wake of a front. Don't let this lull you into a false sense of security. Winds will ramp up quickly Saturday night, with gale force winds expected to start sometime near 12 AM to 6 AM Sunday morning, with the heaviest winds west of the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias. There could be localized areas of storm force conditions for a brief period of time just south of Cape Suckling. Wave guidance has struggled with significant wave heights Sunday; keeping things simple, expect short period fresh seas of at least 17 ft to as high as 20 ft near Cape St. Elias. Again, the heaviest conditions will be near Cape St. Elias and east toward the Fairweather Grounds. For folks south of Cross Sound, especially along the coast of PoW, expect winds of fresh to strong breezes and seas of 9 to 12 ft. Winds and seas begin to relax Monday. Inside (Inner Channels): Winds slowly ramp up Saturday, reaching peak intensity Sunday. Further detail: For the inside waters, winds have become southerly as a gale force low moves into the gulf. For this surface pressure regime, the main problem areas through the remainder of Saturday look to be Chatham Strait, Peril Strait, and Icy Strait, with the potential to see winds of at least moderate breezes by Saturday afternoon. For the remainder of the region, there will likely be much less wind until Sunday as the low begins to jump ashore, bringing widespread winds of moderate to fresh breezes across the inside. Winds will begin to relax across the inner channels on Monday. A note on Glacier Bay for Sunday: Mariners navigating the upper arms of Glacier Bay Sunday should be aware of an occluding front moving over the region. Anticipate southeasterlies to build Sunday before this front moves over, which could bring pretty intense southerly winds to inlets exposed to the south like Reid Inlet. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>643-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...Musall AVIATION...EAL MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau ####018006004#### FXUS61 KALY 140553 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 153 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Latest updated Day 2 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms area expanded north to include most of the CWA. Increased winds/wind gusts for Sunday afternoon and again Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with best chances near and south of I-90. Damaging wind gusts will be main severe threat. 2) Cooler temperatures, mainly near to below normal through much of next week. 3) Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday, depending on timing of cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a warm but sunny remainder of today, and a mainly clear Saturday night, very warm to hot temperatures return for Sunday. However, deep mixing should allow for dewpoints to lower into the 50s for most areas in the afternoon, if not locally lower. Heat indices will therefore remain slightly less than the actual temperatures, which are forecast to reach the mid 80s to around 90 in valley areas and lower/mid 80s across higher elevations. As main upper level shortwave tracks into the Great Lakes/southern Canada, a couple of individual upper level impulses will track toward/through the region Sunday afternoon/evening. Initial impulse looks to approach late Sunday afternoon, triggering scattered showers/thunderstorms. Potentially steep low level lapse rates and DCAPES ~800-1200 J/kg with an inverted-V low level sounding would support gusty/localized damaging winds within any stronger showers/thunderstorms that develop with this initial round, especially for valley areas where DCAPE will be maximized. Main forcing from second approaching impulse and actual cold front will allow for additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms Sunday evening, mainly after sunset. Low level lapse rates may still remain steep initially in any areas devoid of antecedent convection. 0-6km shear increases (30-40+ KT) amid steepening mid level lapse rates, so still can not rule out some additional severe storms after sunset, especially if convection forms into lines/bowing segments. Low/mid level winds become fairly unidirectional after sunset amid PWAT's briefly increasing to 1.50-1.75", so can not rule out some brief training of showers/storms and locally heavy downpours Sunday evening. Showers/thunderstorms should then taper off from west to east toward or shortly after midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of Sunday evening's cold front, much cooler/less humid air will overspread the region Monday-Tuesday. High temperatures will only reach the lower/mid 70s in valleys Monday and 60s for most higher elevations, with dewpoints dropping into the 40s, making for an unusually cool June day along with breezy conditions. Overnight lows Mon night will drop into the 40s and 50s. Temps warm to more seasonable levels by mid week, with upper 70s/lower 80s in valleys. KEY MESSAGE 3... A potentially strong shortwave and developing surface low will track toward the region late Wednesday into Thursday. Unusually strong low/mid level wind fields may be associated with this system. Showers and thunderstorms look to develop late Wednesday ahead of an approaching warm front, then again Thursday with the system's cold front. Depending on the timing of the cold front's passage, enough instability may develop amid the aforementioned strong wind fields to produce strong/severe thunderstorms. Some 00Z/13 machine learning algorithms suggest severe potential across at least portions of the region, and SPC has included areas from near I-90 and points southward within a 15% (equivalent for "Slight Risk") for severe thunderstorms on Day 6 (Thursday). Main question will be timing, as a quicker frontal passage earlier in the day would mitigate instability and severe potential across eastern NY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06Z/Mon...VFR conditions prevail through about 20Z/Sun for all terminals with increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. There is a low to medium chance that isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms will impact the terminals between 21Z/Sun and 03Z/Mon where we maintained the PROB30 group. There is even a low chance that some of these storms can be severe (highest chance at POU, ALB and PSF) producing brief damaging wind gusts but not enough confidence to include in this update. Then, a more organized line of moderate rain and thunderstorms arrive from northwest to southeast between 00 and 03Z/Mon continuing through the end of the TAF period. MVFR/IFR conditions will likely occur (especially visibility due to heavy rain) with potential for gusty winds 30-35 KT or greater as the line of rain/storms arrives. Light and variable winds through early this morning. Then winds will strengthen from the south/southwest between 10 and 15 KT in the late morning into the early afternoon with some gusts between 25 and 30 KT, strongest at KALB/KPSF. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Definite SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12/24 AVIATION...31 ####018004261#### FXUS63 KPAH 140554 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm (20-40% chance) may linger today before drier air gradually builds in from northwest to southeast through the afternoon. - Monday and Tuesday will be cooler and far less humid with dew points remaining below 60 degrees. A mid-week warm up ushers in higher humidity before another break with cooler temperatures appears increasingly likely late in the week. - Multiple rain chances may develop mid week into next weekend, with the highest chances focused Wednesday night through Thursday night and again next Sunday. There continues to be a rather high probability (40-50% chance) at rainfall totals exceeding 3" over the next 10 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 A mid level wave traversing southern Missouri early this morning will slide into the TN Valley today. The MCS out to our west will be moving into a less favorable environment so anticipate a weakening trend and for the severe threat to primarily slide south of us into Arkansas. Having said that we can't completely rule out a strong to severe storm in southeast Missouri through daybreak, but primarily should just be some heavy rainfall and gusty winds to deal with. Could still see some swaths of heavy rainfall that may lead to some flooding concerns through early morning in southeast Missouri given high pwat values, but like the severe threat the primary threat for flooding likely will stay southwest of us as well. After the morning wave moves out we may see some additional isolated showers or storms develop from midday into the afternoon ahead of a second mid-level trough axis diving southeast into the lower Ohio Valley which will coincide with the arrival of drier air. Dew points will be falling through the 60s this afternoon and eventually into the 50s in our northwest. Early week continues to look amazing by June standards, as dew points fall into the 50s with highs remaining in the 70s on Monday. A mid week system will push a cold front towards our area Wednesday night through Thursday night. While we are currently outlooked for severe chances on Day 4 (Wednesday), it wouldn't be surprising to see our main threat shifted more towards Thursday. Timing on Wednesday would be more overnight right now and Thursday may offer up a better overall parameter space (assuming overnight convection doesn't linger into the morning and impact the instability). Still plenty of time to sort through the details. It looks like late week may see another shot of cooler air (highs back in the low 80s) along with some lower humidity. We may get two dry days Friday and Saturday before ensembles hint at another good chance for rain returning next Sunday. LREF continues to paint pretty high probabilities (40-50% chance) at receiving at least 3 inches of rain over the next 10 days. There is also no sign of 90 degree temperatures, with the warmest days over the next 10 days likely only reaching the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 After an initial lull in shower and thunderstorm activity, another round of decaying showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region around 10-16z ahead of a cold front (best chances will be in SEMO and WKY), followed by gradual drying in the afternoon hours. A few showers may develop along the leading edge of the front as well. VFR cigs will lower and will become MVFR with the arrival of more precipitation, followed by improvement in the afternoon. Light S to SW winds overnight around 4-8 kts will become W to NW and increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts behind the frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, the NW winds will relax to around 5-10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DWS