####018005626#### FXUS63 KJKL 101750 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1250 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwesterly wind gusts to between 30 and 35 mph are likely today, with locally higher gusts possible. Lake Wind Advisories are in effect for the Cave Run Lake and Lake Cumberland areas. - Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable accumulations and localized travel impacts on tonight into Thursday morning. The greatest snowfall accumulation and impact will be above 1,500 feet ASL where a Winter Weather Advisory is currently in effect. - A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning. - A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the region for this upcoming weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 Refreshed the forecast with latest temperature trends. As rain moves through the area temperatures will begin to cool. Once the cold front moves through, the area can see a more rapid drop off in temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday evening) Issued at 827 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025 Quick update incorporated the latest observational data, keeping the temperature curve closely aligned with current trends. No major changes were made to the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025 The forecast period commences with the approach of an Alberta Clipper, tracking southeast toward the Commonwealth. At the onset of the forecast, this surface low is anticipated to be traversing the Central Plains. Analysis of forecast wind patterns and isotherms suggests that the warm front will remain south of the area, and as this system tracks from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, the forecast area will be situated within the precipitation shield north of the warm frontal boundary. Deterministic models and their ensemble members exhibit strong consensus regarding this systems trajectory across Missouri into Kentucky before its eventual northeastward ejection toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Given this path, the forecast area is expected to be bisected by the crucial 540 dam critical thickness line. Although the precise location of this boundary is subject to spatial and temporal shifts with subsequent model cycles, the overall trend indicates a north-to- south split in p-types across the CWA. The northern half of the CWA will likely experience accumulating snow, while a wintry mix is anticipated along the freezing line, transitioning to all rain further to the south. Providing exact accumulation values for the northern CWA is premature; however, the current forecast supports the potential need for Winter Weather Advisories from Thursday night through Friday morning to address the snow hazard. Following the departure of the first system, a weak surface high pressure is forecast to build back into the area. Model guidance maintains consistency regarding a subsequent Clipper system tracking through the central CONUS, reaching the CWAs vicinity by late Saturday night into Sunday. PoP is expected to increase Saturday afternoon; however, guidance for this second system is generally more northerly, suggesting the heaviest precipitation will be concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio River. Nonetheless, isolated light accumulations across the northern CWA cannot be entirely ruled out through Sunday morning. A cold surface high-pressure system will subsequently build into the region behind the departing low, ushering in some of the coldest temperatures of the season thus far through the early part of the succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, preceding the approach of another system toward the end of the forecast period. In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two distinct Clipper systems, one from Thursday night into Friday and the second Saturday night into Sunday. Both systems are forecast to bring periods of light snow accumulation. Strong surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on Sunday, driving cold temperatures down to the upper single digits and mid-teens. A notable warmup ahead of the next system is forecast to commence by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 A cold front moving in from the northwest continues to spread rain showers southeastward to the VA/KY border and ceilings have fallen to MVFR. Rain showers transition to snow this evening and overnight and a brief squall cannot be ruled out. Strong westerly winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts slowly diminish this evening and overnight. Breif periods of IFR conditions can't be ruled out with any snow squall type bands this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052- 060-079-080-083-084-106. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ086-087-110-113-115>117-120. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118. && $$ UPDATE...GINNICK SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GINNICK ####018007343#### FXUS63 KLMK 101750 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1250 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Today, widespread wind gusts of 35-40 mph are expected. * Today, a cold front is bringing rain to the region. Rain will transition to scattered snow showers and flurries tonight. * A more significant wintry system is possible Thursday night into Friday morning, which could bring accumulating snowfall to portions of north central KY and southern IN. * Another shot of colder air arrives this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 This morning, ~989 mb sfc low pressure is moving across the LP of Michigan, with a tight north-south oriented pressure gradient leading to gusty southwest winds across the Ohio Valley. A couple bands of rain showers have developed within a series of pre-frontal troughs extending across Indiana and Kentucky, with the main cold front still hanging out just to the NW of the Wabash Valley at this hour. The core of the 60+ kt LLJ is now pushing into southeast KY, with wind gusts generally in the 25-35 mph range at this hour. For the rest of the morning hours, we're expecting additional waves of light to moderate rain to move across southern IN and northern KY, with less rain expected across southern KY where the cold front forcing is weaker and there is less available moisture. Total rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" still look like a pretty good bet, especially along and north of I-64. While the winds aloft will be gradually weakening later today, more favorable mixing via steepening llvl lapse rates should allow for 30-40 mph wind gusts through the day, especially immediately following midday cold FROPA. Only made minor updates to PoPs for today and tonight, and increased the mention of flurries/sprinkles this afternoon through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 429 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Today, a surface low over the LP of Michigan, in the center of an upper trough, will get carried northeast towards western New York by the eastern side of the trough. West of the low, a surging shortwave along with the low's cold front will drop southeast and through the Lower Ohio Valley. The front is expected to arrive in the CWA around midday, but rain ahead of the front is already beginning to make its way into our southern Indiana counties early this morning. This line of showers will increase in intensity over the next few hours and continue southeast over the CWA. The bulk of the rain is expected to come to an end by this evening as showers exit the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions into eastern Kentucky, but some light precipitation on the back side of the system could linger into the tonight as it transitions to snow and/or a mix of rain and snow early tonight. The highest expected rainfall amounts are going to be over the northeastern part of the CWA where around 0.25" is expected. Amounts will taper off to the southwest, to maybe a couple hundreths near Bowling Green. By the time precipitation changes over to snow, only a few flurries to a dusting are expected. Winds are going to remain gusty today as a tight pressure gradient around the storm moves over the Lower Ohio Valley. Winds are expected to gust to around 35-40 mph first with southwest winds this morning. Then, we could get another gusty period as the front arrives with northwest winds. Early WAA is expected to lift temperatures into the 40s before CAA drops lows into the 20s tonight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 429 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday, surface high pressure extends up the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley behind the exiting cold front. Cloud cover from the departing system are expected to keep skies mostly cloudy, but we remain dry. As the high to the south passes off to the east, winds slowly back from the northwest to the south by Thursday night, ending CAA. This will be a little too late to help temperatures as highs only make it into the 30s. Thursday night into Friday, northwest flow will bring a clipper system through Missouri into Kentucky. All the moisture with the system will be on the northeast side of the surface low. The track could change, but a lot of consensus has the axis of the moisture running straight through south-central Indiana and through the Bluegrass and northern Kentucky. Snow totals have been trending up with areas near Jefferson County, Indiana towards Harrison County, Kentucky in the 2-4" range with lower totals tapering off to the southwest with Louisville and Lexington in the 1-2" range. We are expected to to fall into the mid to upper 20s in areas that see most of the precipitation during the first half of the night, but WAA ahead of the low bringing the precipitation will begin to warm temperatures after midnight. This could lead to a change over to rain Friday morning. This weekend, still expecting to see a blast of cooler temperatures with highs on Sunday only reaching into the upper teens across parts of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Temperatures are expected to be closer to 30 across southern Kentucky, but lows Saturday and Sunday night could reach into the single digits and teens. All of this is dependent on northwest flow remaining in place with multiple surface highs keeping CAA in place. Temperatures have been a little flip floppy the last couple of day. It should be cool. There is some room in how cold. Saturday night, the global models keep good agreement between them, but the overall set-up has changed. Now, instead of a system with a northwest component and a southern Gulf component. The latest solutions have just the northern component, acting like another clipper type system, and with it being farther northeast of our area, it may have limited impacts on us. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1249 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A cold front will cross the region from NW to SE this afternoon. While the main area of rain associated with the front will exit LEX and RGA over the next hour, scattered showers will be possible into this evening, particularly at SDF/LEX/RGA. Rain showers may mix with or change to snow later this evening, but impacts are expected to be minimal at this time. The main driver of flight categories through the current forecast period should be CIGs, which should bounce between 1500-4000 ft this afternoon before settling into MVFR tonight. As the front passes, winds will veer from W/SW to W/NW, with gusts settling down later this evening and tonight. The main sources of uncertainty in the current forecast are how quickly gusts dissipate and whether or not CIGs tonight end up above/below the fuel alternate threshold. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...CSG ####018003458#### FXUS64 KOUN 101751 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1151 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Above-average temperatures through Friday; turning cooler by this weekend. - Dry through early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Gusty winds behind the front are expected to gradually come down this afternoon, becoming light by evening. Until then, we may see a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where these gusty winds coincide with RH values of 20 to 25 percent. Overnight, winds will be light and coming back around to southerly. Highs today will be in the 50s and lower 60s under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Southwest surface flow and sunny skies will bring warmer temperatures tomorrow (highs in the 60s to lower 70s). Some hi-res guidance suggest a brief period of gusty winds in the morning as a low level feature passes eastward over the area. Confidence is lower than normal for the amplitude and duration of these higher winds. Another cold front will pass through early Friday, bringing temperatures back down into the 50s to mid 60s again. Breezy north winds will again be possible behind the front during the day. Day && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Models show a secondary front moving across the area over the weekend which will bring a re-enforcing shot of cool air leading to the coldest temperatures of the next 7 days on Sunday. Highs Sunday are expected to range from the upper 30s in north central OK to around 50 along the Red River which will be 5 to 10 degrees below average. Models show a bit of a pattern change next week with a southern stream system moving across the region early/mid next week. This system brings a low chance for some precipitation to at least SE parts of the fa but overall the forecast will remain dry for most into the middle of next week. Southerly winds and near to above average temperatures are also expected to return early next week with highs in the 50s and 60s although some locations could see temperatures hovering around 70 by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Gusty north winds subside late afternoon and become light this evening. Winds swing to the south late tonight and become gusty on Thursday morning. LLWS is possible towards morning over KPNC and KSWO. VFR conditions will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 37 63 42 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 35 67 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 36 68 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 36 71 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 34 65 39 52 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 36 63 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...01 ####018008330#### FXUS61 KPBZ 101751 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1251 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of snow, occasionally mixed with rain, as well as fluctuating temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A passing disturbance brings a mix of rain and snow to the area today. Accumulating snow will be focused in the ridges and along the I-80 corridor where various winter headlines have been issued - Strong wind gusts today up to 45 mph (55 mph in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, WV) --------------------------------------------------------------- The current synoptic situation shows the surface cold front to the west over western OH as of noon. This will make the track across Ohio through the day. Aloft, the 12Z morning sounding is showing some 60 knot winds at 850MB across the area this morning as well. This is showing up on the ridges over Tucker and Preston Counties where some gusts are reaching 50 to 55 mph. The one issue this morning was due to the fact that the colder temperatures and moisture were still lagging to the west and also coupled with a lower dry layer off the surface. This has since filled in a bit, but the associated conditions needed to justify a Blizzard Warning are offset for at least several hours and to an extent, the Winter Weather Advisory as well. Surface temperatures over the ridges show mid to upper 30s still in place. The colder air and the increase in winds along with the deeper moisture arriving a little later min the day allowed for the Blizzard warning and Winter Weather Advisory to be pushed to 21Z start time due to the slow arrival of emphasized impacts. NBM probabilities and the hi-res models support this change and in fact, there will be a lull in the impacts afternoon today before the cold front and higher winds/cold air infiltrate the area. The NBM probabilities through tonight do show a 60% to 70% of snowfall amounts of reaching the 3 to 4 inch range over the northern counties and roughly a 70% to 80% prob of reaching Blizzard criteria in eastern Tucker with the arrival of the winds and colder temperatures. The lake effect bands will begin to set up after fropa this evening around 23Z to 02Z. This period into tonight will, be the most impactful period as the axis of the upper level trough brings CAA and stronger winds across the area. The current Winter Weather Advisory in the northern counties ends tonight by 10pm but given the strength of the bands in the Hi-Res models, the advisory may need to be extended into the overnight period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Transition to lingering upslope and lake-effect snow Thursday - Two more quick-hitting disturbances bring snow potential to areas south of I-70 late Thursday night into Friday morning, and then to the I-80 corridor and ridges Friday night - Temperatures well below average ---------------------------------------------------------------- Thursday will see post-frontal northwest flow with lake-effect snow showers/banding possible through the day. The best chance for additional accumulations will be along and north of I-80 where these bands could locally add another couple inches to the snowpack. That said, confidence at this time in the details regarding locations and amounts is low with snowfall totals between 3 and 5 inches with a few locations seeing an isolated 6 inch amount. The active pattern continues through the end of the work week as guidance points toward two more quick-hitting mid-level shortwave troughs impacting the region overnight Thursday into Friday and then again overnight Friday into early Saturday. The first wave is currently projected to dive south of the local area, bringing precipitation mainly to areas along and south of I-70. With cold air already entrenched across the region, precipitation type is likely to be all snow. At this time, roughly 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall appear possible south of I-70, with higher amounts to 3 to 5 inches possible in the Laurels and both WV ridges in Preston and Tucker. The latest trends slightly nudged the snow south a bit putting the higher amounts in E. Tucker. This is the first run to do this so will hang with the probabilities and keep a 1 to 3 inch chance in Laurels and Preston Ridges with a 3 to 5 mention in eastern Tucker. The second wave moves over the Great Lakes after sunset Friday evening. The orientation of this second wave appears to mostly favor a redevelopment of lake-effect snow showers/banding north of Pittsburgh and upslope-forced snow showers along the ridges. Any additional accumulations with this second wave appear light. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Alberta Clipper returns snow chances to portions of the region late Saturday into Sunday. - Cold temperatures continue into early next week; Cold Weather Advisory along the ridges may be needed early Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range guidance continues to strongly favor a trough over the Great Lakes, maintaining cold air across the region through the weekend. A fast-moving Alberta Clipper is expected to track in late Saturday into early Sunday, potentially causing travel impacts from accumulating snow. Current projections place the highest chances of impacts south of Pittsburgh. The most likely range is 2-4 inches, through a few scenerios support higher totals if localized bands develop. Winter Weather Advisories may be neeeded. Behind this system, clearing skies will likely allow temperatures to drop sharply Sunday into early Monday. Wind chill values may fall below zero, reaching Cold Weather Advisory thresholds across the ridge tops. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread restrictions with rain and snow today - Passing cold front will increase gusty conditions and snow showers - A new disturbance expected early Friday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cigs will continue to MVFR/IFR over the next 3 hours as moisture aloft advances with a passing disturbance. With warm advection under strong southwest flow, rain has been noted at terminals south of FKL/DUJ this morning and will likely continue with dew points increasing into the mid-30s. However, can't rule out a few isolated areas (MGW/PIT/AGC) seeing occasional rain mixed with snow due to wet-bulbing. A cold front will advance between 18Z and 21Z. Wind gusts will likely increase with boundary layer mixing and a strong low- level jet. Convection snow shower chances increase during this time period and stay elevated through 03Z before drier air increases from the northwest. Snow shower chances appear promising in the vicinity of FKL/DUJ through early Thurs morning due to lake enhancement and continue into Thurs evening. Outlook... Another period of restrictions are possible Thursday night and Friday with crossing low pressure. The restriction potential continues Saturday and Sunday with another crossing low, and subsequent cold NW flow and upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ007>009-015-016. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ074-076-078. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ511-513. Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ512-514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Shallenberger LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Hefferan ####018007143#### FXUS66 KOTX 101752 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 952 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy mountain rain will bring a risk for flooding in the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle. Potential for moderate to major flooding along the Entiat River and Wenatchee River in the Cascades. - Strong winds across southeast Washington for Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will impact the area through the week. A series of warm and wet weather systems will result in periods of heavy mountain rain, lowland rain, high mountain snow, and gusty winds. Strong winds will occur on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Drier conditions arrive Thursday night into weekend, but showers at times will be possible with weaker weather systems possible and quicker shots at additional precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG LONG DURATION ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT TO BRING FLOODING, ROCK/MUD SLIDES, AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The next atmospheric river has arrived and will remain nearly stationary into tonight with precipitable water values of 250-325% of normal. A warm front has helped in developing widespread precipitation early this morning but this will be changing. After the the front passes, rain is expected to become mainly focused again over the Cascades and ID Panhandle through Thursday as strong downslope for off the Cascades dominates across most of Central and Eastern Washington. Snow levels will be very high today, rising to 7500-9000 feet this morning, before falling over northern Washington and the North ID Panhandle to 4000-5000 feet on Thursday as precipitation intensity begins to decrease. In addition to the heavy rain, the high snow levels and windy conditions will accelerate snow melt, adding additional runoff into rivers and streams in the Cascades and ID Panhandle. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning for Chelan county, and into Friday afternoon for Shoshone, Kootenai, and Benewah counties. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian Ensembles are still producing another 3-6 inches of rain in Western Chelan county, with up to 6-10 inches along the Cascade crest. For the ID Panhandle 1-4 inches is forecast. In the Cascades river rises will be monitored closely for the Stehekin, Wenatchee, and Entiat Rivers which are under Flood Watches. For the ID Panhandle the St Joe and Coeur d'Alene Rivers are the main concern and are also under a Flood Watch. Another concern for the Cascades will be rock/mud slides, especially so in steep terrain and near newer burn scars including the Pioneer above Stehekin, Sugarloaf, and Labor Mountain burn scars. Another story will be the abnormally warm temperatures and strong winds. The atmospheric river brings an increase in southwest winds as 850mb winds increase again to 50-60 kts across Southeast Washington and up into the Spokane area. Currently the models are showing limiting mixing today and it's unlikely for these stronger gusts to mix down. Yet, winds will still be very gusty with sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH for the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area, Palouse, and Upper Columbia Basin. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Alpowa Summit and Pomeroy areas with gusts up to 60 MPH today. The gusty winds combined with very mild 850mb temperatures of 5-9C will yield very mild temperatures. High temperatures today will reach the mid 50s to mid 60s over of the Columbia Basin, and down into the LC Valley, which would be near records. And Wednesday Night lows will only drop into the upper 30s and 40s, except mid 50s for the LC Valley. These temperatures are as much as 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Thursday Night through Monday: The atmospheric river lifts north and weakens heading into Friday but enough moisture and upslope flow lingers in the Cascades and ID Panhandle for more precipitation but with decreasing intensity. On Sunday into Monday ensembles show another round of precipitation moving in as moist precipitable water plume around 175-200% of normal takes aim at the area from southwest to northeast. Some of the deterministic solutions even briefly increase these values to 250% of normal. This is likely to be another mild system with rain and high mountain snow, but amounts looks much less compared to those this week. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: MVFR CIGS/VIS will linger across parts of the region including KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE through the day as rain and low level clouds continue to move through. For other parts of the region that will see downsloping winds drying out the boundary layer (including KEAT, KMWH, KPUW, and KLWS), VFR conditions are forecast. Gusty southwest winds expected with gusts ranging from 30-50 kts across the Basin and into the Spokane area. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for VFR conditions for KEAT, KMWH, KPUW, and KLWS. For KGEG, KSFF, and KCOE, confidence in the forecast is lower. Ceilings could hover around the MVFR/VFR line. Moderate to High confidence for MVFR ceilings to return to the KGEG- KSFF- KCOE overnight. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 40 55 48 53 41 50 / 100 50 60 60 30 20 Coeur d'Alene 39 53 48 51 41 48 / 100 80 90 80 50 40 Pullman 41 55 48 52 45 53 / 100 70 40 70 60 30 Lewiston 47 63 54 60 50 58 / 100 50 30 50 50 10 Colville 33 49 39 48 31 43 / 100 50 70 50 20 40 Sandpoint 35 50 45 49 37 44 / 100 90 100 80 50 70 Kellogg 37 50 47 49 42 48 / 100 100 90 90 70 70 Moses Lake 42 60 48 57 42 56 / 100 10 20 30 10 0 Wenatchee 41 58 46 54 43 54 / 100 40 60 50 30 10 Omak 38 52 39 47 34 43 / 100 30 60 30 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 7 AM PST Thursday for Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 7 AM PST Thursday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties. Flood Watch through Friday morning for Central Chelan County- Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County. ID...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle. Wind Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 7 AM PST Thursday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse. && $$ ####018005823#### FXUS63 KILX 101753 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1153 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwesterly winds gusting 40-50 mph will accompany scattered rain and snow showers this morning. - Snow will spread across much of central Illinois Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. There is a 50-80% chance for greater than 2 inches of snow along and northeast of a Macomb to Robinson line. - Another surge of very cold air is expected by the end of the week...resulting in sub-zero apparent temperatures Friday night through Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...Strong Winds This Morning... 08z/2am surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough approaching the Illinois River...with a cold front noted further upstream across northern portions of Iowa/Nebraska. Once the trough swings through the area, winds will veer to northwesterly and gust 30-40mph for the entire day. The main concern for higher gusts sill focuses on scattered rain/snow showers along and just behind the cold front. Models have backed off somewhat on the magnitude of the gusts, as winds at the top of the mixed layer are generally less than 50mph. Still think the showers will be able to mix some of the momentum down to the surface resulting in occasional gusts in the 40-50mph range through midday. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of central Illinois accordingly. Surface temperatures will initially be in the upper 30s and lower 40s early this morning, but will drop into the lower to middle 30s as the scattered showers arrive. The snow may temporarily cut visibilities to less than 1 mile in a few spots and will likely result in a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch on grassy surfaces. The most widespread/significant snow showers will push into Indiana by midday, followed by just flurries for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. ...Snow Late Thursday... 00z Dec 10 models continue to have difficulty pinning down the exact track of the next approaching clipper system, which is evident on latest water vapor imagery over British Columbia. Since the system is now on land, it will be much better sampled by both surface and upper air observations...thus the next model cycle should have a much better handle on the exact details. Presently there are two distinct camps...the synoptic models such as the ECMWF and GFS which take the system across the heart of central Illinois and the higher-res models such as the NAM and HRRR that track it a bit further north. Taking the middle-of-the-road model consensus places the axis of heaviest snowfall generally along the I-74 corridor...but this could be shifted slightly northward if the CAMs continue their trends. As it stands right now, it appears snow will develop across the Illinois River Valley by mid-afternoon, then quickly spread eastward toward I-57 by sunset. The heaviest/steadiest snow will occur during the evening, with the precip shifting eastward and diminishing overnight. The 00z Dec 10 LREF now shows a high probability (50-80% chance) for greater than 2 inches of snow along/north of a Macomb to Robinson line. Given the northward shift in the track, an elevated warm layer could lead to mixed precipitation along the S/SW edge of the main snow band. This looks most likely to occur along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line where the latest forecast includes a mix of snow and freezing rain. ...Bitterly Cold Conditions This Weekend... As has been advertised for the past several days, another surge of extremely cold air will arrive this weekend. A short-wave trough interacting with the baroclinic zone will bring another round of light snow to central Illinois on Saturday: however, it is still too early to pinpoint exact accumulations. The main weather story will be the sharply colder conditions after FROPA. High temperatures will drop from the 30s on Friday into the single digits and teens by Sunday. While wind-chill values will dip below zero across parts of the area by late Friday night, the coldest period will be Saturday night into Sunday when apparent temperatures will approach or exceed the -15F advisory criteria everywhere north of I-70. The extreme cold will begin to ease by Monday as boundary layer flow becomes S/SW and afternoon temperatures rise back well into the 20s and perhaps lower 30s in some spots. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1153 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 MVFR cloud conditions will continue for the balance of the next 18 hours of the TAF period. A band of snow showers will depart to the east of the terminal sites by 20z, with CMI the remaining site to get the snow band. However, radar returns have shown a weakening trend for the snowfall bands and vis drops will likely remain above IFR. A few flurries possible out of the MVFR deck this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the main concern this afternoon, with W-NW gusts to 30 KT lingering but diminishing as evening approaches. NAM/HRRR forecast soundings continue to show the MVFR cloud deck persisting through Thursday morning. Winds speeds by mid-evening should drop to 12kt or less after 03z/04z, so we kept that trend going. Ceilings tomorrow morning are projected to increase to VFR before the end of this TAF period. Shimon && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>045-047>056-061-062-066. && $$ ####018004782#### FXUS61 KRLX 101754 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1254 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today. Gusty winds and upslope snow tonight, with blizzard conditions in high terrain. Clipper Thursday night into Friday with mainly snow. More snow late Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A cold front will move across the area on today. Some rain can be expected in advance of the front for most areas, while higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains will see snow. With the strong winds and snow, will keep the Blizzard Warning for the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. There could be a break from blizzard conditions this afternoon. Colder air behind the cold front will cause an upslope snow event from late today into Thursday. This will cause the blizzard conditions to set back in for the higher elevations of the West Virgina northern mountains. These conditions should continue into Thursday morning, when the upslope snow begins to taper off. The Thursday morning commute could be slick on untreated roads for much of the region, especially in and just west of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A strong clipper will effect the area Thursday night into Friday, providing wintry weather. Currently thinking 2 to 4 inches across most of the area. With cold air over the area Wednesday night and Thursday in advance of this system, expect the snow to stick quickly to roads. This system has the potential to create a messy commute for Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... Yet another system can be expected for late Saturday into Sunday. This system should be mainly snow, but could be centered further north, with the main 2 to 4 inch axis from Parkersburg to Clarksburg. Much colder air will move in behind this system, providing upslope snow. Temperatures on Sunday should stay well below freezing. The cold temperatures combined with the wind should create wind chills below -10 F in the higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for Sunday and Sunday night in that area. A high pressure system will then build across the area for Monday and Tuesday providing dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 PM Wednesday... A cold front will move across the area today. This will bring lowering ceilings with rain showers over most of the area and snow and high winds over the highest elevations of the West Virginia mountains. Behind the front tonight, rain will turn to snow area wide with upslope snow continuing over the mountains. Expect IFR or LIFR conditions in and just west of the mountains tonight, ranging to MVFR over northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio. Snow will begin to taper off Thursday morning, with conditions slowly improving. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating conditions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M M M H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M H M M H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M M M M M H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible areawide Thursday night into Friday, and again late Saturday into Sunday with snow. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ034- 515>521-525. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...RPY ####018004333#### FXUS64 KBMX 101754 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1154 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025 - Seasonable temperatures expected this week with little chance for rain until the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tues) Issued at 1150 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025 Guidance continues to show a reinforcing cold front to move through this afternoon and evening with a surface pressure ridge to slide EWD from TX behind it and over the SE US on Thu. Although cooler tonight into Thu, we are looking toward next week for even colder conditions. A strong 1056mb ridge will slide SEWD out of Central Canada on Sat. This will allow for a stronger front to move through C AL late Sat into Sun. Behind it, on Sun a still strong 1040 mb ridge will slide from MN/IA into ERN Conus with much colder temperatures possible for the first part of next week including maybe some teens in the NRN half of the state for lows Mon morning. Will be watching closely to see if this airmass continues to be this cold behind the front, or if it modifies some as we get closer. 08 Previous discussion: (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 A trough is expected to swing through Midwest today, pushing a cold front southward through Central AL later this evening into Thursday morning. Rain chances are very low with this frontal passage as moisture availability is limited. However, some of the higher resolution guidance has tried to introduce some light showers across the area, though I've left mention of rain out of the forecast for now due to low confidence in the scenario. Likely the most noticeable impact of the front will be the increased winds through the day. Drier northerly flow will be in place Thursday, shifting more southerly on Friday leading to a slight warming trend as we reach the end of the week. Our next system is expected to move through over the weekend with the frontal boundary to our south lifting northward as an effective warm front and stalling across Central AL. This could lead to low chances for rain Saturday night into Sunday, but the trend in the guidance has been drier for the last few runs, so any precip may be more scattered. The long-awaited cold surge has now been pushed back to Monday in the guidance, but given we haven't seen a lot of consistency from run to run, I'd have little confidence in the forecast for early next week at this point in time. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025 VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. All of the fog from earlier is gone. There will be some cirrus clouds around during the day today along with some VFR sct/bkn clouds ~ 5kft ahead of a cold front. No precipitation is expected with it. Winds will be gusty this afternoon starting from the SW 10-15kts with gusts 18-25kts. Winds will shift to the W during the afternoon and then to the NW during the overnight hours as the system progresses from NW to SE across C AL. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs will generally remain above 50% today with the frontal passage expected in the evening through overnight. Increased westerly winds will be in place for much of the day, shifting northerly behind the front. Min RHs Thursday will drop into the mid to upper 30% range. Our next chance for any rainfall appears to be Saturday evening through Sunday morning, but will likely remain scattered at best with the next frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 57 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 57 29 49 34 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 30 50 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 32 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 30 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 33 51 35 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 33 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 61 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08/25/Owen AVIATION...08