####018009235#### FXUS61 KCLE 101755 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1255 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern in store as a strong low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. The low will drag a cold front east across the local area Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface trough lingers across Lake Erie on Friday while a weak low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. Another cold front crosses the region on Saturday before high pressure enters on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Deepening low pressure will glide through the southern Great Lakes region through the near term. The low will move a cold front east across the local area during the afternoon/evening today. Initial burst of precipitation will continue to spread across the region. Generally expecting mostly rain across the western half of the forecast area, a rain/snow mix along the I-71 corridor, and wet snow across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The snowfall forecast has trended slightly higher across Northeast Ohio and have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Geauga and Ashtabula Counties where 3-6" of snowfall is expected. Expect for a snowy and slick commute Wednesday morning given the timing of highest snowfall rates with the greatest impacts expected in the Winter Weather Advisory area. A brief dry slot moves overhead late this morning/early afternoon behind the initial push of precipitation before the cold front pushes east later this afternoon/evening. Precipitation should transition to all snow with the frontal passage as temperatures drop. Most of the area will see an inch of less of snowfall with the cold front through temperatures will rapidly fall which may lead to some slick spots on roadways during the evening commute. Snowfall will diminish from west to east with the frontal passage before lake effect snow develops Wednesday evening across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Generally anticipate an additional 2-4" across Northeast Ohio, 3-5" across Crawford County PA, and 5-10" across Erie County PA with lake effect snowfall Wednesday night through Thursday. Have upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory for Erie County PA to a Winter Storm Warning as snowfall amounts through the duration of the event could exceed 10-14" where lake effect bands persist. Given that the event is a mix of both synoptic and lake enhanced snow, opted for a Winter Storm Warning as opposed to a Lake Effect Snow Warning. Highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s before lows fall into the upper teens to lower 20s tonight behind the cold front. Remaining chilly in the upper 20s on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Any lingering lake effect snow showers will diminish Thursday night into Friday morning as a drier airmass and high pressure move into the region. Another clipper will approach the region from the northwest while weakening on Friday. The system will graze the local forecast area to the southwest but can't rule out some light snow across southwestern portions of the forecast area Friday morning. Another low pressure system and associated cold front will impact the Great Lakes region on Saturday bringing an additional chance for areawide snow showers Saturday and lake-effect snow returning Saturday night. Highs in the upper 20s on Friday fall into the low to mid 20s on Saturday. Overnight lows in the teens are expected Thursday and Friday night. Much colder on Saturday night with single digit to lower 10s expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An Arctic airmass will impact the region on Sunday with most guidance showing 850mb temperatures falling to the -18 to -20C range. This cold air aloft coupled with fairly saturated mid/low levels and northwesterly mean layer flow suggest that lake effect snow mentioned above will likely continue into the day on Sunday before high pressure glides through the region on Monday. Highs in the teens to low 20s with chilly overnight lows in the single digits Sunday night. The high will exit to the east through early next week allowing for temperatures to moderate into the upper 20s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... A brief lull in rain/snow is likely across most of the area at the very start of the TAF period, however a strong cold front will enter the northwestern fringe of the CWA within the next couple of hours and push a burst of snow southeast across the local area between about 19Z and 00Z. Snow will likely end at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD near or shortly after 00Z with lake-enhanced snow showers continuing across NE OH/NW PA through midnight. Lake- enhanced precip may dwindle a bit late tonight, however a primary band of moderate lake-enhanced snow will likely develop downwind from Lake Huron somewhere in NE OH/NW PA overnight before lifting northeast as flow backs to the west by early Thursday morning. This could push the band of snow and lower visibilities over KERI at some point between 04Z and 09Z Thursday. Additional lake effect snow showers will most likely develop Thursday morning, resulting in increasing snow chances across the remainder of the snowbelt region (including KCLE and KYNG). Flight conditions will be somewhat variable across the area tonight through 18Z Thursday with VFR likely developing at persisting at KTOL and ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR outside of lake effect snow/clouds. Terminals that experience lake effect snow/clouds will generally have MVFR conditions in lower ceilings/visibilities, however there may be periods of IFR conditions in any localized bands of moderate snow. Winds will shift from the west to the northwest behind the cold front this evening and breezy conditions with sustained winds to 12 to 17 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots are expected through this evening. Winds will diminish slightly to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots tonight before becoming more westerly and diminishing to 8 to 14 knots with gusts to around 20 knots during the day Thursday. Outlook...Non-VFR is expected in periods of lake effect snow through Thursday night. Additional non-VFR is likely in periods of snow as a series of systems cross the area Friday through the weekend, best chance across NE OH and NW PA. && .MARINE... Rough marine weather conditions are expected to continue through the end of this week and into the weekend. A strong clipper low pressure system is currently moving through the Great Lakes region and will deepen to 988 mb as it tracks north of Lake Erie later today. Winds will increase from the south and southwest this morning 25 to 35 knots for most of the basin of Lake Erie. Gale warnings will take into effect at 4 AM and continue through this evening. Waves in the open water will build 10 to 16 feet with occasional waves up to 20 feet. With the southwesterly Gales today, water levels may drop to near the critical mark for safe marine navigation on the western basin of Lake Erie. We will keep an eye on trends and monitor these lower water levels for the potential of a Low Water Advisory later today. After the strong low pressure system passes by, a strong cold front will move across the lake with northwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots tonight. Waves in the open water this evening will start out 8 to 15 but gradually subside to 5 to 9 feet late tonight. Additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed and replace the Gale Warning when they expire this evening. SCA conditions will continue for Thursday into Thursday night with west-northwesterly winds 15 to 30 knots and waves 4 to 8 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet on Thursday. Waves will gradually start to subside late Thursday night between 3 and 5 feet. A brief break in between weather system will arrive on Friday. Southwest winds 15 to 30 knots will develop on Friday into Friday night ahead of the next approaching clipper system. We may have a brief lull in SCA conditions on Friday but will likely see winds and waves ramping back up ahead of the next system. Another strong cold front will arrive on Saturday with west to northwest winds 15 to 30 knots and waves building higher again. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through this upcoming weekend. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST Thursday for OHZ013-014. PA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ002. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for PAZ003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143>149- 163>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...13 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...13 AVIATION...15 MARINE...77 ####018008398#### FXUS65 KABQ 101756 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Dry and unseasonably mild weather will persist through at least the middle of next week across central and northern New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Dry northwest flow continues across the Land of Enchantment on this mid December day with the state situated between an upper high centered over southern CA and longwave troughing over the eastern 2/3rd of the continental U.S. A surface high has pushed southeast over the southern Great Plains this morning resulting in a cooler day, by around 10 to 15 degrees compared to yesterday, across eastern NM. Meanwhile, temperatures across western and central NM are around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Clear skies Wednesday night with low temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees above average. Temperatures across eastern NM on Thursday warm back up to well above average readings due to downslope west winds from surface lee troughing over the Great Plains. Records will be challenged or tied for most locations across the forecast area with highs 15 to as much as 25 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Dry northwest flow remains over the state through the rest of the week as a upper level ridge remains over the Great Basin. Troughing over the eastern 2/3rd of the continental U.S. will allow another weak backdoor front to push through eastern NM early Friday morning cooling temperatures back down to around 10 to 12 degrees above average for mid December. Temperatures across western and central NM will remain generally around 10 to 15 degrees above average. Eastern NM warms back up a little on Saturday, with highs 15 to 20 degrees above average, due to another surface lee trough resulting in downslope west winds. Similar temperatures to Friday across western and central NM. A stronger backdoor front, associated with a defined shortwave across the north central U.S. moves through eastern NM Saturday night into Sunday morning, cooling high temperatures to near average values on Sunday. No noticable impact to temperatures across western and central NM Sunday as the axis of the aforementioned upper level ridge moves overhead. A weak upper level trough moves through the desert SW Sunday night through early Tuesday morning with the only noticable feature during this time being some mid to high level clouds over the state. Downsloping southwest winds warms temperatures across eastern NM back up to around 10 to 15 degrees above average. Another day of similar temperatures across western and central NM. Dry northwest flow with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average areawide in the wake of this weak trough mid next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and generally light winds. Breezy south-southwest winds across the northeast highlands and plains this afternoon. Breezy north drainage wind at KSAF Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Dry weather with no critical fire weather conditions through mid next week. Very mild to warm Thursday and Saturday and cooler Friday and Sunday across eastern New Mexico. Mild and well above normal across central and western New Mexico the rest of this week and across all areas early next week. Ventilation generally poor, expect for some locally fair ventilation across the northeast highlands and far southeast plains Friday afternoon and south central highlands Saturday afternoon, and fair to good ventilation across the south central highlands and southeast plains Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 28 55 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 21 55 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 27 55 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 23 62 22 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 28 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 25 63 23 62 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 29 61 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 35 65 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 30 62 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 29 69 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 34 72 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 24 54 24 54 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 33 58 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 33 63 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 50 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 19 55 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 57 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 33 65 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 28 62 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 34 59 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 30 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 63 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 32 65 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 64 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 63 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 33 64 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 29 64 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 64 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 64 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 35 59 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 33 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 34 67 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 56 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 33 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 30 59 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 26 61 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 58 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 30 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 35 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 37 62 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 31 67 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 29 68 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 70 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 33 67 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 37 74 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 31 70 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 30 74 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 35 72 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 32 74 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 71 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 35 72 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 73 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 32 72 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 37 72 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 34 72 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71 ####018004299#### FXUS65 KRIW 101756 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1056 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snowfall across the western mountains begins to taper off by this afternoon, adding a final 3 to 6 inches accumulation to the higher elevations. - Strong and gusty winds will continue across southern WY through this afternoon, with some gusts near 60 mph still possible. High Wind Warnings remain in effect through tonight. - Near record highs continue east of the Divide the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend, with highs holding in the 40s and 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 The broad ridge across the western US continues to impact the overall lack of any semblance of a winter season so far across Wyoming, and does not look to improve this outlook for at least the next week. The current tap of moisture off the Pacific has been able to produce snowfall for the western mountains, but the warm lower valley temps keeps any precip as rainfall. A passing wave to the north will continue produce another 3 to 6 inches of snowfall for the western mountains, but the western ridge will build slightly this afternoon, pushing the moisture tap farther north, ending precip by this evening. The passing wave and cold front will keep the local gradient tight, resulting in strong and gusty winds across southern WY. A High Wind Warning remains in effect as gusts could still reach 60mph, but the frequency could be lower this afternoon. Temperatures remain particularly warm, with highs in the 40s and 50s for lower elevations, running about 5 degrees under record levels. Another cold front passes by to the north in Montana Thursday through Saturday. The moisture and energy will just clip far northern WY Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing another quick round of snowfall to the YNP, the Absarokas and the Bighorns, with minimal to no snowfall expected from the Tetons southward. The only other area of concern would be northern Johnson County, which could get a brief push of colder temperatures Friday, and some brief snowfall and gusty northwest winds could bring brief travel hazards Friday night along I-90. For the remainder of the region, the ridge will keep the warm temperatures in place through the weekend, with highs stuck in the 40s and 50s. This is troublesome for anyone that actually wants winter to arrive, especially local outdoor hockey teams that still don't have hockey rinks for practice! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 MVFR flight conditions and light rain/snow at KJAC should begin to improve to VFR around 20Z as winds begin to pick up. Confidence in MVFR ceilings this afternoon is 20%-30% at KJAC, KRKS, KBPI, and KPNA so a SCT030 or SCT035 has been added to reflect this potential. Any low cloud/MVFR ceiling potential is forecast to end between 23Z- 02Z, with high confidence (90%+) in VFR flight conditions persisting the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty winds are expected at all West of the Divide terminals (KJAC, KRKS, KBPI, KPNA), KCPR, and KCOD this TAF period. Gusty winds at KBPI and KPNA begin to diminish between 00Z-01Z, with winds at all other aforementioned terminals remaining gusty the entire TAF period. However, there is a 20% chance in gusts diminishing after 08Z at KCOD, but given confidence is low in this occurring, opted to keep persistent gusts in TAF at this time. Winds remain around or less than 12 kts at KRIW, KLND, and KWRL but an occasional gust around 20kts is not out of question (30% chance). Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ001- 002-012. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ008-014-015-024. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ019-020-022- 027>030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Gerhardt ####018007792#### FXUS61 KGYX 101757 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1257 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low is bringing accumulating snow, ice and rain to northern New England. The low moves out tonight, and will be followed by a cold front. This cold front passes through Thursday morning with a prolonged period of gusty winds in its wake through Friday. High pressure briefly builds in Friday night into Saturday before the next trough approaches from the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of noon today, light snow has started across the region. Temperatures are on track, though AUG has been running a little cooler than anticipated. This afternoon's forecast is a challenging one, even only in the near term. Hi-res guidance has been consistently flip-flopping on icing, ice amounts and some guidance still has none over the area. However, upon monitoring temperature trends, especially in Augusta, the image becomes a bit more clear regarding the icing. I opted to lean more heavily towards the HRRR's solution, which paints a broad swath of noticeable freezing rain totals across the foothills and central Maine. Low-level southwesterly winds this afternoon will allow for inefficient warm air advection, which will interact with stagnant and stubborn cold air at the surface. This should allow for a band of sustained freezing rain to occur in a swath from interior York, to Lewiston, Augusta and then northeast from there. This swath could see up to a tenth of an inch of ice, though up to a quarter of an inch can not be ruled out at Augusta and northeastward. I still think that freezing rain will stay confined to Maine, though a patchy glaze of ice can not be ruled out across Strafford and Merrimack counties either. The snowfall forecast is still on track, with 3-6 inches expected across northern NH and northwestern Maine. Skies will be quick to clear up across the south tonight, with southern NH likely waking up to mostly clear skies tomorrow morning, partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Low temperatures will vary quite a bit, from upper teens north of the mountains, to upper 20s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The system exits the area tonight, and a pressure gradient will set up in its wake. The pressure gradient and strong mixing will allow for breezy to gusty winds to setup across NH and Maine on Thursday. These winds in addition to strong cold air advection Thursday afternoon will allow for temperatures to crash mid-day and will allow for a chilly and blustery second half of the day. Upslope snow showers are likely in the mountains and should continue through Friday morning. Blustery conditions will continue through Friday morning as well, with lows in the teens expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By early Friday morning, an upper low will have moved up into the Canadian Maritimes with most of our forecast area remaining in cyclonic flow aloft. This will mean ongoing upslope snow showers across the mountains and forecast Froude Numbers are greater than 1 through the day on Friday. Thus, we could see some of these snow showers making their way out of the mountains and closer to the coast. This activity should diminish at night. A very cold airmass will be in place with Friday highs only expected to range from the teens north, to the upper 20s south. A few lower 30s are possible along the coast. In addition to the cold airmass, winds will remain fairly gusty given modest pressure rises and cold air advection through the day. Forecast soundings generally suggest 35 to 45 knots of wind at the top of the mixed layer with the highest winds expected along coastal areas and the higher terrain. A few wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range seem reasonable during the early to mid afternoon with soundings suggesting that we will see diminishing values after 21z or so. These winds will make it feel much colder with apparent temperatures only expected to range from around 5 below zero over portions the north country, to the mid to upper teens south. Upper ridging and high pressure move in Friday night into Saturday which should keep most of the area dry, although some guidance keeps a few mountain snow showers in the forecast. Lows Saturday morning will once again be chilly, ranging from the upper single digits above zero to the low to mid teens. However, we will rebound a little bit during the afternoon as the ridge axis moves across the region. Forecast highs will mainly be in the lower 20s north, to the low to mid 30s south. Winds will also be light and variable with high pressure in place at the surface. We then transition back into southwest flow aloft on Sunday as the next trough/upper low approaches. This system will bring our next widespread low to medium precipitation chances (20 to 40 percent). An easterly trend has continued in most of the ensemble guidance and confidence is growing that the associated surface low will not deepen until it is well out to sea. This scenario would mean mainly light snow for most of our area. There are still a few scenarios that bring in some heavier precipitation to coastal areas, but these are low probability solutions at this time. Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday, but we are likely to see another round of arctic air move in Sunday night into Monday behind a cold front associated with the aforementioned upper low/trough. Monday morning lows will mainly range from around zero across portions of the north, to the lower teens south. Afternoon highs will only range from the lower teens to the lower 20s (a little bit colder in the higher terrain and a little bit warmer along the coast). Tuesday will then see a modest warmup as most guidance suggests an upper ridge axis moving across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Lowered restrictions are expected due to rain, snow and freezing rain through tomorrow morning. VFR expected afterwards, though HIE may continue to see lowered restrictions due to upslope snow. Long Term...Mainly VFR Friday through Sunday. WNW winds will gust up to 35 kts on Friday. There are low chances for light snow Saturday night into Sunday that will bring the potential for the next period of restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Near-Gale force southerly winds will continue through tonight. Tomorrow morning, winds shift to westerlies, strengthening to at least Gale Force winds. These winds will continue past Friday morning. 5-9ft seas are expected through the entire forecast period. Long Term...Gales out of the west are likely to be ongoing Friday morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds Friday night into Saturday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ007>009- 012>014. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ018>021- 033. NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NHZ001>006. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NHZ008>010. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ151-153. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for ANZ151-153. && $$ NEAR TERM...Palmer SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM...Hargrove ####018007747#### FXUS63 KMPX 101757 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1157 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances of light snow will be possible today through Saturday. Minor accumulations will be possible with each system. - Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind chills approaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria Friday night and Saturday night. - Active pattern and cold temperatures ease next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The low pressure associated with the strong clipper (often referred to as an angry clipper in the office!) was over Milwaukee at 3am. This storm very much followed the southern end of the model envelop, with the surface low eventually passing between the Twin Cities and Mankato. This follows a trend we've seen going back to when this active pattern started before Thanksgiving, reality has followed the southern end of the model envelope, which has been held down pretty strong every time by the ECMWF-AIFS. This tendency for the southern solution to win out is something to keep in mind when looking ahead to the clippers for Thursday and Saturday... At 3am, the deformation band associated with the angry clipper was working through the Twin Cities and heading to southeast MN. This band of snow will be out of the MPX area by sunrise. However, over eastern NoDak, there's a ribbon of vorticity on the edge of a jet streak that has been producing light snow all night (with 1 1/2sm to 4sm visibilities). CAMs are in good agreement on this area of forcing and light snow moving east through the morning, with another 1/2 inch or so of snow looking likely over our MN CWA from late this morning into the early afternoon. After this, we do get into a dry period that lasts through Wednesday night as a surface high moves through. Thursday will bring us our next clipper in the northwest flow. As we have often seen in this pattern, we have a good deal of spread between northern and southern solutions in the ensemble members, but given past performance, we are leaning heavily into the southern solutions (ECMWF-AIFS again). Following the southern solutions, the swath of heaviest snow with this wave (2-5") looks to be heading from southeast SoDak to southeast Iowa, with some lighter snow amounts getting up to about the MN River in southwest MN. We did switch out NBM QPF Thursday with WPC QPF, as the NBM looks way too hot with QPF across our entire MN CWA as it gets led astray once again my northern ensemble members, from the GEFS in particular this time. Based on where the southern solutions have the snow for Thursday, we're still a little high with the snow forecast for Thursday across our entire MN portion of the CWA, but we were able to at least peal 0.5" to 1" of snow off what the NBM had by going with WPC QPF. As we have seen since Thanksgiving, our breaks in precip our short- lived, with the arrival of the arctic front leading to another widespread 0.5" of snow along it late Thursday night through Friday morning. The airmass coming behind this front will be the coldest we've see so far this winter, with h85 temps dropping down to around -20C this weekend. Friday afternoon, temperatures will be crashing on northwest winds gusting to between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens below zero Saturday morning, with highs Saturday only getting up to a few degrees on either side of zero. The coldest morning will be Sunday, when high pressure, light winds, clear skies, and a deep and fresh snow pack will send temperatures on a free fall. Lows in the teens and 20s below zero look likely Sunday morning. As for extreme cold headlines, as a reminder our criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory is -25F or colder from the Twin Cities east and south and -30F west and north of the Twin Cities (this goes up to -35F and -40F for an Extreme Cold Warning). Our lows Saturday morning have actually trended warmer a couple of degree over the past 24 hours, with wind chills Saturday morning currently forecast settle in right at or just warmer than our advisory criteria. We'll have less wind, but colder temperatures Sunday morning, so this looks to be our coldest morning in terms of apparent temperatures as well, with Cold Advisories looking all but certain for at least this morning right now. At the moment, Extreme Cold Warning criteria is looking a bit out of reach (as are record lows!). Besides the cold, the caboose in the clipper train finally comes through on Saturday. Given how cold and dry we will be in the low levels, it's hard to see much, if any snow getting as far north as MN on Saturday, with another two to four maybe more snow coming for Iowa. Next week, as the trough shifts east, upper ridging will overspread the central CONUS. This will replace our arctic airmass this weekend with one coming off the Pacific and central Rockies next week. WAA will be in full swing on Sunday, but it will be hard to warm much on Sunday when you're starting the day off down around -20F. Given the snow pack in place, we won't be making any runs at 50 or anything like that next week, but for Tuesday through Thursday, we should see most of our area with highs pushing into the mid 30s. Besides the warmer weather, your shovels and snow blowers will get a break as well, with our next potential for precipitation after Saturday not coming until Thursday next week and it may be warm enough for this system where the predominate p-type we get is just plain rain. So for those growing tired of the cold and snow globe weather, hope is just around the corner! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A band of light snow that is currently pestering STC, MKT, and MSP will continue to make its way southeastward early this afternoon. Snowfall rates could increase slightly to where conditions fall at times to IFR conditions hence tempo groupings were distributed accordingly for mainly our central sites. Exception was given to RNH who could see MVFR snow due to the heaviest snowfall rates remaining to their west. EAU is expected to remain snow free. MVFR cigs across all sites will be slow to improve through the rest of today but should begin to scatter out to low VFR late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Breezy 20-25kt winds will decrease through the afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds tomorrow will shift southerly around 5-10kts. KMSP...MVFR light snow is expected to continue through the first half of this afternoon. Did include a near-term tempo for any short burst of better snowfall rates between 18 and 21z. Breezy 20kt northwesterly winds decrease by mid-afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. Cigs will will remain in MVFR through tonight before scattering out to low VFR tomorrow morning. Winds shift South-southeasterly tomorrow morning. Some light VFR/MVFR light snow is possible in the early afternoon hours Thursday therefore introduced a prob30 late in the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...Dye ####018005399#### FXUS64 KMRX 101757 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1257 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Strong gusty winds this afternoon will subside later today into tonight. - NW flow snow event expected later today through early Thursday with accumulating snow mainly over parts of the E TN mountains and higher terrain of southwest Virgina. - Low chances of precipitation across the north Friday night into Saturday. - Stronger surge of cold air will arrive for Sunday into Monday. Lows in the teens with some higher elevation single digits expected Monday morning. Lower wind chills will add to the cold. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 The strong gusty winds that are ongoing over our area ahead of an approaching cold front will subside later this afternoon into tonight after the front exits to our east. Winds have already gusted over 50 at Cove Mountain, and we have seen gusts to around 40 at the TYS airport. The wind advisory will be allowed to continue as it is for now. While moisture is limited, we will see some rain showers around the time of the frontal passage, then as much colder air pushes in we will see a rapid changeover to snow showers over the higher terrain, and the valleys will likely see some snow showers and/or snow flurries as well overnight. The normally favored orographic lift areas of the mountains will see accumulating snow in the northwest flow and cold advection overnight into Thursday, with amounts of 1 to 3 inches likely in many of these upslope higher elevation locations especially at elevations above 2500 feet. Locally higher amounts may occur in a few of the highest mountain peaks. The winter weather advisory for parts of SW VA and the E TN mountains will be continued as is. A few locations across the northern half of the TN valley may see some light accumulations of less than an inch, but most valley areas are expected to see no accumulation or just a dusting. Following the snow's exit Thursday, a short-lived cool-down can be expected with drier conditions throughout the day and decreasing clouds. However, a weak system will bring increased chances for precipitation to northern parts of the area late Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, upper heights will be rising which will bring the warmer temperatures back for Friday and Saturday. Models generally agree on a stronger cold front moving through Saturday night followed by an area of cold high pressure with its origins in Alaska and Western Canada. Current ensemble data suggests little precipitation, but much colder air will move in behind the front for Sunday and Monday. Monday morning lows are currently forecast to be in the teens across the majority of the valley and Plateau with some single digits for the highest elevations of the mountains and parts of southwest Virginia. It currently appears winds will be on the decline once we get later in the night Sunday into Monday, which is good news and may suppress what could be much worse wind chills. High pressure will eventually shift eastward but will keep us dry through at least early Tuesday. Another system may approach by Wednesday, so Pops will tick up once again by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Gusty winds this afternoon will gradually diminish later in the period. We will see some rain and snow showers around especially TRI and TYS, with TRI the most likely to see visibility impacts. In addition, cigs will dip to MVFR levels at TYS and TRI for much of the overnight into early Thursday time frame, but should rise back to VFR before the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 29 46 30 58 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 30 41 31 54 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 41 30 54 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 35 26 46 / 70 20 30 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Anderson- Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins- Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for Lee-Russell- Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for Russell- Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 ####018007589#### FXAK67 PAJK 101758 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 858 AM AKST Wed Dec 10 2025 .UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section to include the 18z TAF issuance. Forecast seems overall on track. Stronger winds the north. Snow and lower clouds in the south. Any updates this morning will be to refresh marine products and make small targeted edits. && .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Cold temperatures continue, with many areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Dangerously cold wind chills along White Pass. - Partly cloudy and breezy conditions through the week, with potential for more accumulating snow in the southern panhandle next weekend. && .SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...The very cold breezy northeasterly outflow pattern that we have been experiencing continues, keeping winds elevated, especially for the northern half of the panhandle, which is still creating some dangerously cold wind chills. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for the Gustavus / Glacier Bay zone until 9AM today & the Haines Borough/Klukwan zone until 3PM today, & an Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the Municipality of Skagway until Noon today. The weather station at White Pass reported wind chill values as low as 52 degrees below zero overnight. A weak low pressure center moves to the south of the panhandle this afternoon, keeping cloud cover increased for the south and keeping chances for light precipitation in the forecast for the far southern panhandle into this evening, keeping warmer air advected into that area. After that low departs, the arctic boundary that we have been talking about finally moves through the far southern panhandle behind it tonight into tomorrow, decreasing temperatures & cloud cover. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...Only minor changes were made to the long term forecast, mainly adjusting outflow wind speeds and pushing the potential snow for next weekend back a day. By Thursday morning, the low moving south of the panhandle will have moved inland into BC and dissipated, with strong outflow winds keeping any developing showers offshore until Saturday morning. This means that the panhandle will remain dry through the rest of the week, with low PoPs and partly cloudy skies dominating the forecast. A small surface ridge developing on Friday is expected to make that day the most clear and the least windy. Precipitation is expected to return to the forecast Saturday morning as a low jumps into the southern gulf and sends a front northward into the panhandle. Uncertainty still remains in how far this front will make it through the panhandle, as persisting outflow winds will attempt to force the front to stay more southern. With colder temperatures remaining through the long term forecast, precipitation will most likely fall as snow. Active weather looks to remain into early next week. The main concerns for the long term remain the temperatures and winds. The arctic boundary continues to extend southward through the week, keeping below freezing temperatures through the extended forecast. Daytime highs will struggle to reach into the 20s for many locations in the northern and central panhandle, and into the 30s for the southern panhandle. Overnight lows during the week will mostly stay in the single digits up north and in the 10s down south, slightly increasing through the weekend as the next system moves in, though still staying below freezing. An extreme cold warning for Skagway, primarily along the Klondike Highway, is still active through noon Wednesday for extremely cold temperatures as low as 45 degrees below. Cold weather advisories for the Haines Borough and Gustavus have been issued through 9 AM Wednesday for wind chills as low as 15 degrees below, primarily once the sun sets. Strong outflow also persists through the week, with 20 to 35 kt winds and pockets of gales blowing through the inner channels and funneling out into the coastal waters of the gulf. The strongest winds will remain in the northern panhandle, particularly down Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage and out of Cross Sound, with gaps along the gulf coast serving as outlets for strong winds to funnel through. There will be a brief decrease in wind speeds on Friday, though Lynn Canal will still stay above 20 kts before outflow ramps up even stronger than before going into the weekend. Strong gales are expected to spread through a majority of the inner channels, with strongest winds remaining in those hot spots in the northern panhandle. Freezing spray will remain an issue in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast with these elevated winds, which could become heavy at times. && .AVIATION...For the Northern panhandle, VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Wind speeds will be strongest in the Lynn Canal area with airport reporting speeds around 15 to 25 kts with gusts above 30 kts. For the Southern panhandle, a front from a weakening low south of the panhandle is bringing a band of snow over most location. The light snow has lowered VIS to 2 to 4 SM with CIGs AoB 3000 ft and gusty winds up to 20 kts. As the front moves out of the area through midday, skies will clear out and TAF sites will become solidly VFR for the night. Sites that are typically more susceptible to winds will remain impacted by the outflow at around 10 kts with the occasional gust. && .MARINE... Inside Waters: Generally, the northeasterly outflow pattern continues for the next several days, keeping up to around 40 kt gale-force sustained winds for the northern 2/3 of the Inner Channels with the strongest winds the farther north that you go, with Northern Lynn Canal experiencing the strongest winds. These winds will also be accompanied by fully-developed seas up to around 17 ft with generally the highest waves the more northward you go, due to the long-fetch of these strong winds. Additionally, mainly due to air temperatures being so cold, up to heavy freezing spray is also likely. Outside Waters: Generally, northeasterly outflow winds up to 35 kt gale-force are in store for the northeastern gulf through Thursday. For Friday, the pressure gradient relaxes & winds decrease. Finally, those winds ramp-up, again, up to around 40-45 kt gales for the same area for the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens & northerly outflow intensifies, once again. Significant wave heights top out at around 14 ft today & top out at around 22 ft for the weekend. Some freezing spray is possible for the northeastern gulf. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Extreme Cold Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ318. Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for AKZ318. Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ319. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ320. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031-053. Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-651. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-032>034-053-641>644-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLC LONG TERM...ZTK AVIATION...GJS/ZTK MARINE...JLC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau ####018005592#### FXUS63 KMQT 101758 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1258 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow showers ramp up across the north, then northwest wind snow belts behind an exiting winter storm, persisting through Thursday. Snow totals today through Thursday peak at around 2-4" over the N and NW wind snow belts of the north-central and eastern UP. - Gale Warnings remain in effect for much of Lake Superior through this evening. - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the forecast period. Low temperatures in the single digits and even below zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Early this morning, our deep Clipper low is centered over southeast WI and southern Lake Michigan, with a tight baroclinic zone draped over central WI. IR imagery and radar returns indicate a swath of snow along and just north of this zone, with a sharp cutoff to the south given the drier midlevel air curling in. We, however, remain north of pretty much all of this "system" snow, with just Menominee county being impacted by light snowfall. Some light radar returns over Superior are beginning to migrate into the north-central UP with winds turning to the NE as the low continues to track eastward into the Lower Peninsula this morning. Snow accumulations before sunrise should be rather light, generally an inch or less in both our developing lake effect and the lingering light snow over Menominee county. However, with some upsloping, the north-central UP may see some higher totals up to 1-2 inches. As winds continue to back to the N and NW today, expect lake effect snow to shift accordingly to those associated snow belts and persist through Thursday. With dry midlevel air working in, our highest accumulations will be over the north-central and then eastern UP courtesy of the longer fetch over Superior. That said, significant, problematic, headline-worthy snow totals are not expected. Totals today through Thursday will be highest across the higher terrain of the north-central UP (with upslope enhancement today), and across Alger, northern Schoolcraft, and northern Luce counties. In these areas, expect a general 2-4 inches. Elsewhere, LES should only drop as much as 1-2in of snow through Thursday. Otherwise, expect winds to turn rather gusty today; N to NW wind gusts of 20-25mph will be common by mid-morning, and stronger gusts of 30mph or even higher will be possible across the Keweenaw and nearer to Lake Superior. Winds decrease into the evening. Temperatures largely hold steady in the upper teens to lower 20s today, falling back to the lower/mid teens tonight before rebounding into the low/mid 20s Thursday. Models continue to hint at another clipper traversing the area later on Friday, but this system does not look particularly impactful in terms of snow amounts at this time. Another shot of arctic air will move into the area this weekend in the wake of this system as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 to -25C by early Sunday. This will correspond to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens and overnight lows flirting with below zero readings for Saturday and Sunday. Another clipper may then approach the region early next week, but models continue to differ greatly with respect to strength, progression, and timing of this feature. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Lake effect snow showers continue out of the north through this afternoon, however vis restrictions are no longer expected at IWD/CMX through tonight. SAW will initially vary between IFR/MVFR vis into this afternoon before heavier snow showers shift to the east. That said, potential for vis restrictions persist at SAW into tonight and return at CMX early on Thursday as winds shift northwest. Primarily MVFR cigs are expected through the 18Z TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Strong low pressure is moving over Lake Michigan early this morning, and tracks across the Lower Peninsula today. NE winds are already picking up this morning, with gusts to around 25-30kts expected to increase to gales of 35 and possibly 40kts between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale. Gales then develop over the central and eastern portions of the lake after daybreak while winds shift northerly, then over to the northwest. Expect gales to fall off over the west and central from late morning to early afternoon, but linger over the eastern half of the lake into this evening. Winds continue to fall back below 20kts in the west half of the lake by early Thursday, but 20kt gusts are expected in the east half at least until Thursday evening. Then expect a brief period of lighter west- winds below 20 kt into early Friday before winds increase again ahead of another system. This will bring renewed gale chances during the weekend, with freezing spray concerns also increasing as a frigid air mass moves over Lake Superior. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ249-250-266. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...77 MARINE...LC