####018005871#### FXUS64 KLIX 250850 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 350 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 With the fear of sounding like a broken record it has been another quiet uneventful night. Warmer yet again with most of the region only in the 60s by 8z and not anticipating much more cooling through sunrise today. The development of areas of light to moderate fog with patches of dense fog has been something we have been keeping an eye on but by 8z nothing yet has developed but there is still a few hours and we likely will see some fog develop right at sunrise. Some mid and upper lvl clouds are streaming in from the northwest and this may be having a minor effect on cooling and thus the production of fog. For the next few days and through the weekend the word is...WARM. So basically today, April 25th, is probably not the perfect date this year as it is likely no one will need a light jacket today with highs expected in the lower to mid 80s, sorry Miss Rhode Island. If today is not perfect it definitely won't be the next few days as we looks to possibly be a degree or two warmer tomorrow and maybe this weekend as well but clouds could play a little bit of a role in keeping us from really warming as much as possible. Ridging will continue to build across the eastern CONUS through the weekend with the ridge axis getting east of the area early tomorrow. This will place us in southwest flow aloft but with the ridge building it will also allow the LL to warm another degree or two. It will also keep the multiple disturbances that move across the Plains tomorrow and through the weekend well off to our northwest and north while we remain dry for the most part. It wouldn't be a complete shock though if we saw one or two light showers develop each day this weekend after we have heated up, especially Sunday as moisture continues to trickle up. Also just want to point out that if a few showers can develop they likely will exhibit some rotation but given how warm the temps will be from h8 to h7 any shower that develops will be shallow and struggle to get above 7k ft. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Medium range models continue to exhibit good consistency and continuity. Confidence remains slightly higher than normal in the extended forecast with rain returning to some areas Monday into Tuesday but no real frontal passage and the area remaining warm next week. No deviations made from the NBM at this time. Heading into the new work week the ridge that has dominated the eastern seaboard and much of the southeast CONUS will finally begin to feel of the multiple disturbances riding across the Plains and towards the Great Lakes. The western periphery of the ridge should sufficiently break down as the trough finally moves into the Lower MS Valley late Monday. This should allow for4 showers and possible a few thunderstorms to move into the area but it is beginning to look like the northern half of the CWA may be the only area to really see much rain. Looking a little deeper and it appears that even though the ridge finally breaks down part of it is only being suppressed into the Gulf and the ridge quickly tries to build into the coastal areas of LA as it tries to reestablish itself over the western Gulf, portions of the Lower MS Valley and southern Plains by midweek. Medium range models even show hghts rising overnight Monday and Tuesday just along and south of the SELA coast while we see a weakness over southwest MS. That would favor higher rain chances over the northern half of the area and much lower PoPs across coastal SELA. The warm temps don't go anywhere and look to stay with us through next week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals. Earlier mid level clouds dissipated shortly after sunset. Main concern will be the potential for development of radiation type fog around sunrise. Where it does occur, IFR or lower conditions will be possible for a few hours. Most favored terminals would be KMCB and KGPT, but cannot rule it out entirely at most terminals. Should see rapid improvement to VFR around 14z, with only scattered cumulus beyond that point. Afternoon cloud bases will probably be around FL040, with cumulus dissipating after sunset. Threat for fog Friday morning should be less with a little more wind expected. /RW/ && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 One more benign day with high pressure keeping southeasterly winds in check before winds start to increase in speed tomorrow and especailly through the weekend. High pressure will continue to slide east and should push off the Atlantic coast tomorrow while multiple sfc low develop and move northeast through the Plains and towards the Upper MS Valley and Great lakes through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient and headlines are expected through the weekend possibly as early as late tomorrow. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 83 60 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 86 64 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 85 63 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 83 67 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 81 66 80 69 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 85 62 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...RW MARINE...CAB ####018010749#### FXUS63 KGLD 250852 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather is possible Thursday for most of the area with the main threats being tornadoes and very large hail. The threat is conditional as a cap could prevent storms from forming. - A Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday south of I-70 and west of Highway 25 for low humidity and strong winds. - Blowing dust is also possible Thursday afternoon for near and south of the I-70 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 248 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Tonight, the 850 mb LLJ will strengthen and shove more moisture into the CWA. At the surface, easterly winds will cause upslope flow, leading to stratus and patchy to locally dense fog. This fog may begin around 10Z and potentially last until 18Z. The stratus will linger around longer than the fog and potentially cap the severe environment tomorrow afternoon/evening. Also tonight, a shortwave looks to fire off a few showers and storms around 7Z. Small hail and some gusty winds are possible (5% chance), but confidence for severe weather is less than 2%. These showers and storms are expected to form near the eastern Colorado border and move east. The precipitation will exit the CWA in the late morning. If these showers and storms linger and are fairly strong, this precipitation could deplete the environment of ingredients for the later storms. After 18Z, southerly winds will pick up with gusts up to 35 kts in the southerly portions of the CWA. Depending on where the dryline sets up, locales to the west will be much more dry. RH values to the west of the dryline will drop into the lower teens. This will create critical fire weather conditions for locations south of I-70 and west of Highway 25. Most locations will only briefly see the critical conditions, but there is high (80%) confidence that Greeley county will see prolonged critical conditions. If the dryline stalls out farther to the east and north, surrounding counties will have a good shot at hitting Red Flag Warning criteria, hence why the Fire Weather Watch has been left in place. Blowing dust will also be possible (~20-50% chance) in locations along and south of Highway 36. Along the Kansas Colorado border will see the best conditions for blowing dust. Visibility reductions down to 2-3 miles are possible in plumes of blowing dust. Brown-out conditions cannot be ruled out. The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the eventing. SPC has added an Enhanced risk to the southeastern CWA for Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail hazards, but there will likely (60%) be a hefty inversion that will work to cap the updraft potential. If the cap does break, isolated discrete to clusters of severe storms will form and all hazards will be possible, with a focus on tornadoes and hail. The entire Tri- State area will have potential to see severe weather, but chances increase farther to the southeast. Storms are expected to start firing around 18-21Z with the highlight of the severe storms being 21Z-06Z. The prime location for the severe storms will be in the southeastern CWA and the storms will move to the northeast. After 06Z, the severe weather threat will lower over the following 6 hours. During this time, we will begin to get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system with most of that falling north of highway 36. As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are already expected due to the pressure rises. Temperatures overnight tonight and tomorrow night will cool to around 50. High temperatures tomorrow will be highly dependent on the dryline location and extent of the stratus. Under the stratus, highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s. In the southwest, behind the dryline, low to mid 80s are forecast. Friday will be a bit more uniform with the northwestern CWA only warming into the mid 60s and the southern CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 144 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, several rounds of precipitation look to impact the region in the extended period. For the upcoming weekend, a cutoff slow-moving 500mb low works off the central Rockies on Saturday. With an amplified ridge over the eastern portion of the country, this system is expected to make a N/NE trek from western Kansas then lift into southwest Nebraska for late Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface, low pressure moves into southwest Kansas ahead of the upper low, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward towards eastern KS/NE. This low does kick a bit faster eastward than the upper support. This will allow for an easterly upslope flow to shift northerly as the low passes. The result of this surface low/front moving through the area, combined with upper level support, will be chances for showers and thunderstorms to occur. Based on the surface low track from both the GFS/ECMWF, highest pops/QPF chances favor locales along/north of I- 70 as 80-90% chance for precip will occur, tapering to a 40-60% chance south of the Interstate. QPF numbers are widely ranging over this event, from 0.20-0.30" east and south, to 0.70-1.30" in northern/western locales. These higher numbers are aided by the upslope easterly early on. The bulk of the QPF will occur Sat/Sat night. With PW values approaching 0.80-1.00" especially for N/NE zones, hydro concerns could crop up. This will be on top of what areas have already received rain from Thu-Thu night. Looking for the surface gradient Saturday night into Sunday to increase/tighten with gust potential into the 30-40 mph range before tapering late Sunday. Going into next week, zonal flow aloft expected through midweek with some amplification late Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a couple weak shortwaves riding through the zonal flow that will help to trigger a few rw/trw especially in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Surface low/front across KS during this time will focus moisture/instability mainly east of the CWA, but eastern zones could see 15-20% chance for convection. ECMWF/GFS do differ on this as strong ridging aloft does occur late for the ECMWF, so will stay close to the latest NBM for precip potential. At most, above normal temperatures are expected as 850 mb temps will range in +14c to +19c range but will be highly dependent on cloud cover especially towards the midweek timeframe. For temps, going into the upcoming weekend, with a frontal boundary over southern portions of the area Saturday a wide range in daytime highs is expected with upper 50s to mid 60s west and upper 60s to the upper 70s east. Warmest areas will be in the extreme E/SE portions of the CWA. On Sunday, cooler with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. Going into next week, another warmup begins with highs on Monday reaching into the 70s, upper 70s to mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking Thursday with 80s area-wide. Overnight lows Saturday night will range from the mid 30s west into the mid 40s east. Sunday night, mid to upper 30s expected. Next week, overnight lows will range mainly in the 40s Monday and Tuesday nights, trending warmer for Wednesday and Thursday nights with a range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1033 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Moisture return is ongoing across the Plains. Ceilings are forecasted to gradually drop over the next few hours as IFR to LIFR conditions continue to remain likely; some patchy dense fog remains possible throughout the night but am anticipating stratus will be the primary reduction in flight category. Showers and storms remain forecasted at KMCK tonight as well starting around 07Z with a low chance that will become severe with large hail and torrential rainfall the primary hazard. LLWS is also occurring at each terminal as the low level jet aids in the moisture return. Stratus looks to remain at each terminal for most if not all of the day with the exception being KGLD where a dry line will help erode clouds. The other story will be the severe thunderstorm potential with the relative higher confidence at this time that KMCK will be impacted. All hazards of severe weather will be possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an 84- hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming weekend. These chances will come in two rounds, one Thursday/Thursday night and the other this weekend. Precipitation amounts will be highly dependent on track and movement and overall coverage. Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time have around a half inch or less south and east of a line from Hill City to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area. North and west of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is possible. The highest totals are currently focused west of a line from Burlington Colorado to McCook Nebraska. Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to handle around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be monitored for potential for any training of storms in localized areas, especially for areas that may have seen a lot of rain today/tonight and may see more storms over the weekend. There are currently no Flood Watches in effect. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for KSZ027-041. CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Trigg HYDROLOGY...JN