####018007433#### FXUS61 KRLX 080007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 707 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure center passes southeast of the area Monday, bringing accumulating snow to the area southeast of the Ohio River. Dry Tuesday. Warmer, wet midweek, colder thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 705 PM Sunday... Models continue to trend heavier and a bit farther north and also even a bit farther west with the snowstorm Monday. the snow will impact the morning commute, especially if any snow melts initially on account of the mild weather today, and the evening commute as, even as the snow ends, refreezing of anything that melts Monday afternoon. As of 315 PM Sunday... Dry weather continues today as surface high pressure shifts further east of the area, although an isolated sprinkle or two does remain possible across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia over the next hour or two. Highs will range from the upper 30s to 50 across the lowlands, with mid 30s to low 40s in the mountains. Unsettled weather will quickly return to the area later tonight into Monday as an upper wave crosses just south of the area, bringing a return of precipitation beginning after midnight towards dawn on Monday. Precipitation will begin in the form of a rain/snow mix, but steadily turn to mainly snow across much of the area by dawn on Monday, then continue as such during the day on Monday as the system continues to shift east of the area, with most snowfall ending near or shortly after sunset on Monday. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system will remain southeast of the Ohio River, with the heaviest of snow accumulations (1-4") currently expected across southwest VA, the mountains of WV, along with the nearby surrounding lowlands. Given such, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM on Monday for areas where confidence is highest in these amounts occurring, with some impacts expected for both the morning/evening commutes. The northern extent of accumulating snow will continued to be monitored given some variance in guidance in terms of snowfall amounts, with a possible expansion further north or SPS needed later to highlight this. Lows tonight will generally range from 20 to the freezing mark, with the coldest across the north and in the mountains. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the lowlands, with 20s in the mountains. Surface flow will generally be out of the NNE/NE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Sunday... High pressure will bring dry weather back to the area Monday night and Tuesday. Monday night will be on the cold side, especially given any clearing over areas that receive snow during the day on Monday. Lows are currently progged for the mid teens to mid 20s. A warm front will quietly shift north of the area on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with return flow on Tuesday resulting in temperatures warming approximately 10 degrees compared to that of Monday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s across the lowlands, while upper 20s and 30s in the mountains. A few isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out as the front lifts north of the area. Additionally, breezy winds of 15-25 mph develop across the area as the pressure gradient begins to tighten. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday... A cold front will cross the region on Wednesday in association with a disturbance tracking across the southern Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb to near or slightly above normal values for Wednesday, with mid 40s to low 50s across the lowlands, resulting in rain showers for much of the area. Temperatures will then trend much colder Wednesday night into Thursday (~ 10 degrees below normal) following the passage of the front, with a chance for some snow showers. Breezy to gusty winds are expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night (25-35 mph lowlands, 35-45 mph mountains). A northern stream pattern then continues for the remainder of the work week into the weekend as a broad trough over the eastern CONUS gradually amplifies, providing the potential for precipitation at times via weak embedded waves and/or lake moisture. Confidence in precipitation timing is rather low at this point, while confidence in temperatures trending towards significantly below normal values is much higher. High temperatures by next weekend could be in the 20s across the lowlands, with teens across the mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 705 PM Sunday... A snowstorm will impact southeast portions of the area Monday, with IFR or worse conditions at least on visibility BKW 11-20Z, CRW 14-18Z, and EKN 16-19Z. Times are approximate and give a general trend. All sites will have MVFR ceilings overnight through Monday morning, and HTS and perhaps CKB may see MVFR visibility in snow for a short period Monday. Northeast surface flow will freshen and become a bit gusty Monday morning, and then diminish again in the afternoon. Light west flow aloft tonight will become light to moderate northeast overnight, and then light northeast Monday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions associated with stratocumulus and snow may vary from the forecast, with longer and lower restrictions possible. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible in stratus Monday night and Tuesday morning in and near the mountains, and Tuesday morning over the middle Ohio Valley. IFR conditions are possible area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday in a rain to rain/snow mix, and then in mainly snow by Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for WVZ015-024>028-033-034-515>524. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW NEAR TERM...TRM/GW SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...GW ####018005272#### FXUS62 KMLB 080009 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 709 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Coverage of showers and isolated storms will increase through this evening with periods of moderate to heavy rain. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible. - Hazardous boating conditions will develop Monday into Tuesday especially in the Gulf Stream. - Near seasonable temperatures most of this coming week with a cooldown next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Thru tonight...Sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal boundary across central FL across Osceola and Brevard counties. To the north, stratus and cool temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s. To the south, more breaks in the clouds and a south wind component warming temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Weak low pressure over the northern Gulf will move east along this boundary and across FL tonight. Already seeing an increase in shower coverage spreading ENE along and north of the boundary. Mid level lapse rates remain poor based on special 18Z TBW sounding but deep layer shear exists along with noticeable 0-1km helicities increasing 150-250 m2/s2 later this evening. But this will be after peak heating and any deep convection (thunder) that can develop from Orlando northward would likely be elevated (not sfc-based). Regardless, band of heavy rain could set up across north/central sections this evening with locally up to 3" of rain. The convection should decrease in coverage and intensity as it shifts SE overnight into Okeechobee/Treasure coast. Mon...Cold front will push south across the area with lingering showers across central/southern sections. North wind will advect drier air down the peninsula with rain chances ending from north to south during the day. But skies will be slow to clear so remaining mostly cloudy. Max temps will range from near 70 north to the near 80 Martin county. Tue-Sun (modified)...Mainly dry through the period with less model indication of significant cold air intrusion into central FL. Sfc high pressure ridge will settle southward reaching central FL Wed. A reinforcing, but weak, high pressure ridge builds over central Florida late week. A stronger cold front is forecast to reach the area next weekend but wind flow should quickly turn onshore and modify the airmass. Max temperatures below normal Tue ranging from the mid to upper 60s north to the mid 70s south. Then 70s forecast mid to late week before dropping back into the mid 60s to lower 70s next weekend. Low temps holding in the 40s and 50s. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A nearly stationary front across central FL and the adjacent Atlc this afternoon separates a north wind component north of the Cape and a south wind component to the south. High coverage of showers and isolated storms will develop through tonight as weak low pressure rides east along the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop Monday as northerly winds 20 knots and gusty build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. Have initiated Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia waters as well as the offshore (Gulf Stream) waters starting at 4 pm Monday. High pressure settles southward reaching the local waters Wed with weak reinforcing high pressure late week. Although NE winds will decrease Tue 10-15 knots, seas will be slow to subside, maintaining 7 FT in the Gulf Stream. Seas will gradually subside mid to late week thanks to proximity of the ridge axis with 2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore by Fri. Rain chances diminish from north to south behind the front Monday with dry conditions building into mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 IFR/LIFR conditions are occurring from ISM/MCO/TIX northward as a band of SHRA/TSRA and low CIGs push southward. TEMPO groups are included from TIX/MLB southward as convection shifts south thru 08z. A cold front is slowly sagging southward and will continue to do so overnight until finally pushing south of all terminals after 18z Mon. Behind the front, MVFR/IFR (occasional LIFR) conditions will prevail thru at least Mon. afternoon as winds begin to shift WNW. Prevailing winds around 10-14 kt outside of convection, becoming gusty along the coast after 21z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 70 52 66 / 90 20 0 0 MCO 65 73 54 69 / 90 30 0 0 MLB 65 75 57 71 / 70 40 0 0 VRB 66 77 58 73 / 60 60 0 10 LEE 61 71 49 67 / 90 20 0 0 SFB 63 72 52 68 / 90 20 0 0 ORL 63 72 52 68 / 90 30 0 0 FPR 66 78 59 73 / 60 60 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Schaper ####018008468#### FXUS61 KILN 080009 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 709 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably cold pattern will remain in place for the foreseeable future, with a brief warmup expected midweek before more cold air settles back into the region by late week into next weekend. Periodic chances for light rain or snow will evolve throughout the week, including tonight into Monday morning and again Tuesday night through Thursday. The best chance for widespread accumulating snow may evolve during the day Thursday on the leading edge of the very cold air poised to filter into the Ohio Valley by Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A very weak system with limited moisture availability will continue to progress through the region through late afternoon, bringing with it some spotty light SN or FZDZ, particularly near/north of the I-70 corridor. The midlevel disturbance will flatten with eastward extent within the broad SW flow aloft, leading to a decrease in coverage of the light pcpn late in the day except along the front itself. The 07.12Z KILN RAOB depicts quite a bit of dry air in the lower part of the sounding, from about H7 to near the sfc, with some very shallow moisture near the sfc leading to some BR this morning. Even still, moisture availability/depth in the DGZ remains marginal at best, so do think that any snow accumulation in WC OH will remain fairly limited (generally one half of an inch or less) into mid afternoon, with sub-optimal dendrite growth potential. Additionally, road temps are warming well above freezing, limiting the potential for travel difficulties. Elsewhere, we will be locked in the clouds through the daytime, with temps nudging up only a few degrees into midday. Daytime highs will range from the lower 30s in WC OH to the lower 40s near/S of the OH Rvr. The main item of interest for tonight is another weak disturbance, which will be progressing W to E across the nrn TN Vly. This system, while a bit stronger than the one impacting the nrn OH Vly this morning with light wintry pcpn, will be quite a bit further S, with an expectation for the nrn fringe of the pcpn shield to graze the srn half or third of the ILN FA late tonight into Monday morning. While the forcing/lift and moisture availability will be rather meager with northward extent into N KY and far SW/srn OH, there is a signal for some light snow in these areas, particularly after midnight through mid-morning Monday. The fcst soundings show very shallow/marginal moisture in the DGZ, with most of the saturation centered between the sfc and H7. Even though the DGZ is somewhat deep, it is fairly dry. Additionally, ensemble probs are only at about 50% for measurable snow in parts of N KY through Monday morning, lending itself to some uncertainty regarding accumulation potential in these areas, although the timing itself is of some concern. The Monday AM commute is likely to be impacted by at least /some/ light snow stretching from the Tri-State through far srn OH and most of N KY, even with ensemble probs favoring less than an inch for most (or all) of the local area. Air temps will be settling to near freezing from Owen Co through Lewis Co KY by 09z, with upper 20s a bit further N, with the expectation for road sfc temps to get near or slightly below freezing after 09z. So even though the snow won't be particularly heavy, untreated sfc conditions should be receptive to light accumulation, especially considering the time of the day. Will mention this potential in the HWO, with an SPS very likely to be warranted at some point. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... Weak CAA will be ongoing during the day Monday, but some diurnal response is expected as temps nudge up 8-10 degrees by the afternoon from morning lows. This will especially be the case as we get into some sunshine by mid/late afternoon. Partly cloudy skies will evolve late in the day just about everywhere as the morning system pulls to the E. Highs will reach into the mid 20s in EC IN and WC OH to the mid 30s near/S of the OH Rvr, which will still be about 10 degrees below seasonal norms. A cold night is on tap Monday night as a narrow ridge of sfc high pressure drifts E into the region by late evening. Temps will drop quickly after sunset with light winds and clearing skies, but will plateau late in the night as clouds move in and some WAA begins to become established once again during the predawn hours. In fact, temps will likely nudge up a few degrees past 09z (particularly near/NW of the I-71 corridor) as SW sfc flow strengthens with the tightening of the pressure gradient as a sfc low darts E across the nrn Great Lakes. This will set the stage for a breezy Tuesday for the OH Vly. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak mid level short wave will pass quickly east across the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. The better forcing and moisture with this system looks to remain to our north so the main impact will just be an increase in clouds. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. A somewhat stronger short wave will drop southeast out of the upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and across the upper Ohio Valley through the day on Wednesday. Increasing southwest flow ahead of this will lead to breezy conditions through the day with wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. In the developing WAA, Wednesday looks to be our warmest day with temperatures up near normal, with daytime highs into the 40s. Moisture will also be on the increase and this will allow for fairly widespread rain to develop late Tuesday night and overspread the area into the day on Wednesday. Pcpn should then begin to taper off heading into Wednesday night as the short wave moves off to the east and an associated cold front pushes southeast through our area. A cooler airmass will begin to settle into the area behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday. There are some model differences with the strength, timing and placement of some additional mid level energy that will move across the Ohio Valley region through the day on Thursday. This could lead to some snow across the region but given the uncertainty, will just limit pops to chance category for now. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Yet another mid level short wave will drop down through the Upper Plains/Great Lakes regions as we head toward the weekend. This will help carve out a deeper upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. and usher in a very cold airmass through end of the long term period. Daytime highs by Saturday and Sunday will only be in the teens to lower 20s. It will also be tough to rule out some scattered snow showers at times given the potential for any embedded mid level energy and/or some flow off of the the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface cold front has slipped southeast of the TAF sites with MVFR ceilings developing in its wake. The potential exists for a brief period of freezing drizzle with IFR ceilings with the best threat across the northern TAF sites. These low clouds to work south with clearing from north to south developing between 06z-15z. A weather system moving thru the TN Valley late tonight will offer the potential for some light snow for srn sites of KCVG/KLUK (and potentially KILN) between about 05z-11z. This may lead to brief MVFR visibility restrictions. This snow will shift to the E of the terminals after daybreak, with a clearing trend expected after 12z. North winds around 10 kts will become northeast at 10-15kts, with gusts 15-20kts, before slowly subsiding toward daybreak. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely Wednesday into Thursday. MVFR visibilities are possible with snow on Thursday. Gusty winds to 35kts are possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR ####018006472#### FXUS62 KJAX 080009 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 709 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Periods of Beneficial Rainfall through Tonight. Isolated TStorms Possible South of I-10 Today. A Strong Storm is Possible over Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties, with a. Locally Heavy Rain at times - Patchy to Areas of Fog late Tonight - Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights - Small Craft Advisory Monday Afternoon into Tuesday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A messy, dreary, and wet day continues across northeast FL and southeast GA as a stalled frontal zone remains fixed across north- central FL. Modest isentropic ascent across the boundary will increase a bit more as low-level jet streak pushes across the area later this afternoon and evening. Along the stalled boundary, a weak wave of low pressure has begun to develop over the northern Gulf, which is acting to lift the portion of the boundary across FL northward toward the southern zones. Cumulatively, this is a beneficial and much-needed rain event which widespread rainfall and storm totals between 1-3" will help with the recent drought conditions. That said, as the front begins to lift northward, there will be a window of this afternoon and early evening where isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly across Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties where weak instability is expected amid favorable deep shear. The question remains whether convection will develop and effectively tap into the deep-layer shear. SPC has maintained a low- end ("Marginal") risk of severe thunderstorm development given forecasted low level helicity around 200 m2/s2 support for mildly organized cellular development. Overnight, rainfall will taper off as drying northwest flow behind the incoming frontal passage funnels into the region delivering another shot of cold air. As rainfall shifts away, patchy to areas of fog may develop and become locally dense given the moist conditions from the day and half of light rainfall. Lingering cloud cover will keep lows in the upper 40s for southeast GA and mid-50s for NE FL tonight. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak troughing will remain across the area Monday. A few spotty showers will remain Monday morning. The trough will move away Monday night into Tuesday, as a ridge builds from the northwest. Clouds will decrease Monday night due subsidence under ridge and drier flow. Skies will trend clear on Tuesday. The high pressure ridge will be overhead Tuesday night. Temperatures Monday will have a broad range to due to location of trough, with highs in the upper 50s near Alma, GA, to around 70 at Ocala, FL. A wide range in temperatures is forecast again Monday night, as a onshore flow along NE FL coast will keep readings milder there. Lows Monday night will range from the middle 30s over SE GA, to the upper 40s along the NE FL coast. A little patchy frost over inland SE GA will be possible where the winds drop off. For Tuesday highs will range from the middle 50s over SE GA, to the middle 60s south of Gainesville, FL. With the position of the high, mainly clear skies, and cold air mass in place, lows in the lower to mid 30s will be common across inland SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL. Lows from KSSI to KGNV, and east will be in the lower to mid 40s. A fairly widespread Frost event is expected Tuesday night for inland SE GA, and Suwannee valley of NE FL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure ridge will sink south of the region Wednesday. A cold front will move southeast across area Wednesday night. This front is expected to move through dry. Weak high pressure will build again Thursday. Another cold front will move through Friday into Saturday. A few showers are expected with this passage. Strong high pressure will build to the northwest Saturday night through Sunday. Temperatures will be near to above normal through Friday, then below over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... IFR/LIFR stratus with passing stratiform showers and drizzle will continue across the TAF sites through at least 08Z. Showers end from north to south tonight as drier air filters in from the north. Ceilings will gradually lift to MVFR between 12-21Z. Light and variable winds tonight become north-northwesterly around 10 kts Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... Rounds of showers and drizzle continue tonight as a wave of low pressure moves across the area waters and drags a cold front behind it. North-northwest winds quickly strengthen on Monday and increase to Small Craft Advisory levels Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Weak high pressure will then build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday then shift southeast Thursday as the next cold front approaches. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Monday NE FL Moderate Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS INLAND TUESDAY... Low pressure system will move off to the east through Monday. High pressure will build overhead Tuesday. The high will sink to the south Wednesday, with a cold front sliding through Wednesday night. Weak high pressure will build Thursday. Another frontal system will affect the region Friday into Saturday, with high pressure building behind it for Sunday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog Tonight. Thunderstorm potential NE FL Today. Frost with a light Freeze inland Tuesday night. An inland Freeze is expected Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 45 58 34 53 / 50 20 0 0 SSI 50 61 41 55 / 90 10 0 0 JAX 51 65 41 59 / 90 10 0 0 SGJ 56 67 49 62 / 100 20 0 0 GNV 55 68 42 64 / 100 10 0 0 OCF 58 70 44 65 / 100 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454-470-472-474. && $$