####018011512#### FXUS65 KABQ 162336 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Hot, dry, and breezy-to-windy conditions will expand to more of western and central New Mexico Wednesday as winds strengthen further increasing the risk for rapid fire spread. - Hazardous heat is forecast in the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley Wednesday, and also across the east-central and southeast plains, as high temperatures challenge daily records. - Thursday and Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase the risk of cloud-to-ground lightning and mostly dry microburst wind gusts with blowing dust west of the central mountain chain, and wetter storms with a low risk of flash flooding below burn scars from the central mountain chain eastward. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 High pressure aloft is swelling over the open eastern Pacific waters while drier and relatively brisk northwest flow prevails over NM. Pressure heights are rising, and PWATs are falling, a recipe for hotter temperatures and few, if any, storms. The only meager prospects for a stray shower or storm appear to be in the southern Sacramentos and Guadalupes this afternoon, grazing over our southern CWA border. Breezy to windy conditions will subside this evening at the surface, but speeds aloft will hold or even increase a bit tonight into Wednesday. The winds at 700 mb are projected to reach 15 to 35 kt on Wednesday with the speed maximum juxtaposed over the usual axis stretching from the Four Corners down into the central highlands. The surface trough will also be oriented more to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos on Wednesday, causing the surface gradient to tighten. This will lend to stronger winds on Wednesday with gusts of 35 to 45 mph being common from northwestern down into central NM. Faint mid level moisture will be easing into our southwestern zones where a couple of dry storms or virga cannot be ruled out, and these would likely hurl out some wide-reaching outflows. Otherwise, very dry conditions will hold, and temperatures will keep climbing. This will introduce more risk of heat impacts and illnesses. The Extreme Heat Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for the Chaves county plains, including Roswell, and a Heat Advisory has been posted for the ABQ metro area for Wednesday. We will have to keep an eye on the east central plains, which might be candidates for additional Heat Advisories, as they are within close reach of the 105 F threshold. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 By Wednesday night, the-lee side surface low will sag southward, allowing a backdoor front to infiltrate northeastern NM. This will spill down the remainder of the eastern NM plains through Thursday morning, but should mostly stay east of the central mountain chain. Notable rises in dewpoints are modeled with the moisture advection and upslope yielding isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms initiating off of the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos and Sacramento mountains through Thursday afternoon, however the spatial coverage looks rather low. Moisture will also continue to struggle to enter southwestern zones via the Gulf of CA. A couple of deeper convectively-driven cold pools are modeled into Thursday evening, spreading into west central zones. Later Thursday night and Friday morning, surface high pressure will keep settling southward down the plains, pushing the moist backdoor boundary farther west. This will cause east winds to accelerate through gaps/canyons within the central mountain chain Thursday night into Friday morning. The moisture will mix eastward to the central mountain chain Friday afternoon. Still, widespread PWATs of 1.0 inch will be present over the plains with more scattered convection shown to roll off of the central mountain chain eastward. This would put the Ruidoso burn scars in an area favorable for convective initiation. Pressure heights would remain rather high, so this may introduce capping inversions aloft, limiting storm coverage in the plains Friday. Moisture erosion looks to begin on Saturday with a hint of westerlies aloft being introduced while lee-side surface troughing ensues. This would push the best moisture east of the central mountain chain, making it more difficult for cells to initiate over the lower elevation plains, so POPs consequently reduce Saturday. Further drying is modeled into Sunday, but another backdoor front will have to be our source for any increases Sunday night into Monday, which the operational GFS is more bullish about. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Northwest breezes between 25 and 35kt will persist until approximately 02Z this evening before diminishing. A few showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest Mountains will also wane with sunset. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Southwest Mountains on Wednesday. Gusty and erratic winds will impact the area from these storms. Elsewhere, gusty northwest winds will prevail with gusts between 25 and 40kt. The exception will be across northeast NM where a weak backdoor cold front will slide in causing light easterly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Red Flag conditions will continue across northwestern NM through the early evening, as dry northwesterlies aloft continue to mix down to the surface. Winds aloft strengthen into Wednesday and spread farther south, and this will lead to an expansion of the critical threat. The Fire Weather Watch was already upgraded for northwestern and central zones where confidence is highest in meeting wind criteria. The west central mountains and Rio Grande valley will observe more marginal wind speeds, posing some uncertainty, and consequently the Watch remains intact there. The other concerns are dry thunderstorms in southwestern zones Wednesday and likely again Thursday where new lightning ignitions will potentially be found. Unfortunately, no significant moisture intrusions look to grace the western half of NM through early next week, but the good news is that the winds aloft will slacken with no strong long duration windy periods. Any wetting rainfall will come to the central mountain chain and eastern plains, mostly on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 57 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 93 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 55 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 54 94 57 92 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 54 88 57 87 / 0 0 5 10 Grants.......................... 56 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 59 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 65 93 66 89 / 0 0 5 20 Datil........................... 61 89 61 86 / 0 0 0 20 Reserve......................... 53 92 52 91 / 0 20 20 20 Glenwood........................ 57 96 55 94 / 0 20 20 20 Chama........................... 46 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 64 91 65 86 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 57 94 58 88 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 87 55 84 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 44 80 44 77 / 0 0 5 20 Angel Fire...................... 36 84 34 80 / 0 0 5 30 Taos............................ 52 90 55 86 / 0 0 0 10 Mora............................ 56 89 55 81 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 56 97 60 93 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 59 93 61 89 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 101 69 97 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 102 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 100 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 64 103 68 99 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 62 100 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 60 101 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 101 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 61 102 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 96 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 71 104 73 100 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 61 94 63 91 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 59 93 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 95 59 91 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 58 92 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 59 95 62 91 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 60 94 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 66 98 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 58 90 58 85 / 0 0 0 40 Capulin......................... 51 91 53 73 / 0 5 10 0 Raton........................... 51 96 53 82 / 0 5 10 5 Springer........................ 53 97 55 83 / 0 0 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 58 94 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 63 96 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 59 95 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 102 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 100 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 102 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 65 101 65 82 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 66 102 66 87 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 65 104 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 66 110 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Picacho......................... 65 99 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 Elk............................. 62 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ101-120. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ105-106. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ219. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ124-125. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...34 ####018009448#### FXUS63 KDTX 162336 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 736 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely this evening. Isolated storms may be strong to severe. - Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Heavy rainfall is likely which may lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. The potential also exists for severe weather, mainly south of I-94. - Slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION... Passage of an upper-level disturbance resulted in the development and passage of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms, mostly focused across KFNT and especially KMBS. Scattered to widespread coverage will continue for the next couple of hours across KMBS as the upper-level disturbance continues to swing across the state. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is now located across far southwest Michigan aligned with a cold front. This front will continue to push east tonight which brings the renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms for the Metro terminals up to KPTK. However, as the front arrives, diurnal heating and thus instability will be waning, which lowers confidence that ongoing thunderstorms will hold as the activity crosses into Southeast Michigan. As a result, will highlight this uncertainty with a PROB30 group. Overnight, residual moisture from this activity and clearing trends could help support and sustain some low-level stratus by the mid to late morning hours. Confidence is low across the Metro region regarding the development of stratus given the more sparse activity today , but confidence increases farther north, aligned with better coverage. D21/DTW Convection...There is a chance (30%) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms favored 01z-03z. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5kft overnight. * Low for thunderstorms tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 DISCUSSION... Active weather pattern the next two days with multiple rounds of thunderstorms likely and potential for flooding rains, especially Wednesday evening. A look at the visible satellite early this afternoon shows the system responsible over northern WI with the attendant cold front extending to the south while a prefrontal fgen band exists over eastern Lake MI producing showers. Locally over SE MI some high based showers initiated early with the lack of a cap but little morning CAPE and shear prevented much from developing. Heading into the afternoon, a 30 knot low level jet will lift ahead of the prefrontal band while a pocket of 500mb vorticity pivots around reaching southern MI at the same time. This mostly seems to come together over SW MI, hence SPC upgraded that region to a Slight Risk while leaving part of SE MI in a Marginal Risk. SBCAPE is forecast to top out around 500 J/kg with some bulk shear around 30 knots. We'll have to see how upstream convection can hold together as it approaches for increased severe chances. Dry low levels showing up in the soundings as an inverted V, supporting the higher bases convection will also support wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph as the most probable severe threat this afternoon mainly from 20-00Z. Wednesday still garners much attention with the unseasonably strong low driving through the region. Some changes/questions of note to the setup in terms of location of the low/occlusion which will dictate severe chances in SE MI. Models still support a strong mid level trough over MN/WI with a sub 990mb surface low under it. A strong mid level wave will rotate through the base of the trough across southern Lake MI while a very strong 60+ knot low level jet racing northward just ahead of the wave through IL and into southern MI just before Wednesday evening (around 00Z Thursday). The strong lift ahead of the surface low will cause the system to occlude and refocus a center over southern MI or northern IN. At this point, most of the support is to push it east near the state line. A portion of the low looks to get rotated up through the Thumb, while a potential MCS diving E-SE helps drive the instability axis southward, keeping the bulk out of SE MI. Strong lift with impressive southwesterly moisture advection will bring PWATs around 2 inches into SE MI on the lead isentropic arm, with the low and associated thunderstorms passing through mainly in the 21-06Z window. Severe weather chances remain limited as we expect the bulk of the instability and surface features to remain to our south. SPC Day2 outlook has remained relatively unchanged focusing on the better setup south of the border. There remains a window around 00- 04Z when a narrow wedge of instability slips north through the area which would be our best chance for severe storms. Main threat will occur mainly south of I-94 but location will be adjusted as we see where the surface boundaries set up. Confidence in flood risk remains elevated Wednesday afternoon into the overnight. WPC Day2 ERO continues to include all of SE MI in a Slight Risk for flooding. The wealth of moisture, strong fgen and EPV, with strong deformation developing just north of the low center, should produce a wide swath of heavy rain across portions of SE MI. Highest totals should occur close to the Ohio Border with decreasing amounts heading north. As we get deeper into the suite of CAMs, precip totals have had a slight downward trend, possibly owning to the shorter duration with such a fast moving system. Regardless, confidence remains fairly high for a swath of 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals, with locally higher amounts exceeding 3 inches possible. We remain in the broad upper level trough on Thursday with the remnant surface low from MN/WI tracking across central MI Thursday afternoon. Steepening low level lapse rates look to be able to produce a round of low topped showers early Thursday. Mid level trough feature should pass to the east, ending the support for showers overnight but could see another window of diurnally forced showers on Friday, more limited in coverage. MARINE... A low pressure system and its attendant cold front gradually work through the central Great Lakes from west to east, supporting continued showers and thunderstorms into the evening and early overnight hours. An isolated threat for hazardous wind gusts and large hail remains. A brief break in activity emerges during the daylight hours Wednesday as ridging aloft quickly passes through. A secondary stronger low pressure system follows in quick succession late Wednesday into Thursday. More intense convection is possible with this system, capable of damaging winds, and to a lesser extent, waterspouts and large hail. Prevailing southwesterly gradient winds accompanying the low climb above 25 knots, once the center approaches Lake Huron late Wednesday night. This eventually backs flow northwesterly, based on the northeast trajectory of the system across the Huron basin. Gusts to gales remain possible, mainly for the southern waterways, as the strongest LLJ winds of 40-50 knots pass through the lowest 3 kft. Shallow mixing profiles appear to exhibit only meager growth, maintaining uncertainty with the potential/duration of gales. Opted to forego a Gale Watch for Lake St. Clair and western Erie, but will reevaluate during the evening update. Also, cannot completely rule out gales extending into southern Lake Huron, too. Post-frontal winds decline a bit and organize out of the west-northwest on Thursday, remaining so through at least Saturday. Additional chances exist for showers and a few thunderstorms over the weekend as cyclonic flow persists overhead. HYDROLOGY... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening. Most areas will receive a quarter inch or less of rainfall, but training of storms over the same areas will lead to totals nearing an inch. Flooding is not likely today. A seasonably strong low pressure system will then arrive late Wednesday, producing widespread rainfall with numerous heavy thunderstorms through Wednesday night. Rainfall totals ranging between 1 and 2 inches are likely for much of SE MI, and isolated areas may receive over 3 inches. Most of this rainfall is expected to occur in 6 hours or less, currently centered between 8pm and 2am. This rainfall may pose a flash flooding threat, mainly in urban areas, and rises on rivers and streams can be expected. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....AM DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......KGK HYDROLOGY....TF/DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018011184#### FXUS63 KGID 162337 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The two "biggest stories" of the next week are: 1) near- critical fire weather conditions and fairly strong winds on Wednesday by June standards (see separate Fire Weather section below for details)...2) A gradually-increasing concern for potential severe thunderstorms (and maybe localized flooding) especially Saturday afternoon-overnight. - Aside from the above concerns, the MAJORITY of the next week appears fairly quiet/uneventful, with the various/intermittent rain and thunderstorm chances especially Sunday night-Tuesday being of lower confidence than the Friday night-Sunday chances. - Temperature-wise: certainly nothing too noteworthy by mid-late June standards, with highs on most days in the 70s/80s and lows on most nights in the 50s/60s. The main round of hotter 90s will be right away Wednesday, with counties mainly along/south of the NE-KS border forecast to reach low-mid 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 -- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS: - No truly major changes to speak of, as the items listed in Key Messages above continue to ring true. - Officially, our forecast remains completely void of any mentionable rain chances (meaning chances/PoPs less than 15%) through Friday afternoon. That being said, we cannot rule out later forecast possibly introducing some chances for a few light showers/sprinkles especially late Wed night-Thurs AM. - In the very minor forecast change department, high temps for Saturday- Monday have nudged down a few degrees from previous. -- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (through Tues. June 23): - CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 230 PM: By most folks' standards, today has simply been a seasonably- pleasant mid-June day. Under generally partly cloudy skies (a fair amount of passing high level cirrus), high temps are on track to top out between 82-90 degrees in most places...overall- coolest in our eastern NE counties and overall-warmest in our extreme southwestern counties (Furnas/Phillips/Rooks) which are most favored to reach/slightly exceed 90. Humidity levels are also fairly low, owing to dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Winds have thus far today been a minimal concern, with sustained speeds in most places near-to- below 10 MPH. However, speeds through the rest of the afternoon will gradually pick up a bit and become more established from the south, with especially our northern/western counties seeing gusts 20+ MPH by evening. In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor satellite and short term model data confirm that our Central Plains region resides under northwesterly flow, directed between a potent shortwave trough rotating through the Great Lakes/eastern Midwest...and an expansive ridge/high centered well off the southern CA coast. - THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: A dry forecast continues, with any stronger/severe storms focusing off to our south (southern KS) and/or east (mainly northern/eastern IA). A few sprinkles/light showers could TRY clipping the extreme northern/northeast fringes of our CWA late tonight along the far southern edges of lift associated with a shortwave trough diving out of the Dakotas toward IA, but this meager precip should stay slightly to our north/northeast. The main story overnight will be increasing southerly and eventually southwesterly winds...in response to a surface low pressure system deepening to around 990 millibars as it tracks from the WY/NE border area early this evening...to east-central/southeast NE by sunrise. In response, our winds tonight will ramp up to sustained speeds commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-30+ MPH. The increasing winds and low-level warm air advection makes low temps a little tricky, as many places will probably bottom out pre-midnight before steadying or even rising a few degrees later in the night. No matter what, the majority of our CWA will see lows hold up 10+ degrees warmer than last night...with lows aimed from mid-upper 60s in most places...to low 70s in our south (especially KS). - WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Although not as hot as it once looked, this will still be the warmest day of the next week, and quite likely also the windiest. Aloft, the aforementioned upper wave will track east- southeast into the Midwest (likely prompting widespread severe storms especially over IL/IN), while back here out west behind that system we'll remain dry under mostly sunny skies. High temps were changed very little...ranging from mid-upper 80s in most of our Nebraska counties...to low-mid 90s counties mainly along/south of the KS border. As surface low pressure departs east, a seasonably-strong cold front (especially in terms of winds...less so temps) will cross our CWA during the morning, with most of the day featuring sustained northwesterly speeds 20-30 MPH/gusts 30-45 MPH. The overall-strongest speeds (gusts 40-45 MPH) will target counties mainly north of I-80, with the overall "lightest" winds in our KS counties (see separate Fire Weather Section below for more on near-critical fire weather concerns). Wednesday evening-overnight, winds will steadily decrease in the evening with sustained speeds at/under 10 MPH by around 11 PM, but remaining northerly through the night. We continue with a dry forecast, but various models are increasingly suggestive that we might need to consider adding some low chances for light showers and/or sprinkles post-midnight to especially our northern counties due to some lift from upper jet dynamics and mid-level frontogenesis. Temp-wise, lows about 10 degrees cooler than tonight...ranging from mid 50s north to low 60s south. - THURSDAY-FRIDAY DAYTIME: Our dry forecast continues for now, but the same possible chance for light showers/sprinkles mentioned for late Wed night could linger through much of Thursday AM especially in our eastern counties. Even so, the vast majority of these 36 hours will surely be dry as we remain under benign northwesterly flow aloft. Breezes Thursday will remain out of the north-northwest but not nearly as strong as Wednesday. High temps will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday (mainly upper 70s-low 80s). On Friday, winds flip back around to southerly and become a bit breezy...aiding another jump in high temps (at least 5-8 degrees warmer than Wed) with highs mainly mid-upper 80s. - FRIDAY EVENING-SUNDAY (the weekend): Not going to attempt to break down this time frame in super- great detail, but as previously covered there is gradually increasing concern for a severe thunderstorm/localized flooding threat especially for Saturday afternoon-night. SPC introduced a Day 5 "Slight Risk equivalent" to our entire CWA on this morning's outlook...which is also supported by CSU machine- learning probs. Any convection Friday night-Sat AM could perhaps be strong to marginally- severe as low-level moisture and instability starts to return northward, but it will probably be fairly scattered in coverage. However, more widespread convection is probable Saturday afternoon-overnight as a low- amplitude upper wave enters the Plains from the west, accompanied by an eastward-tracking surface low and likely a strong southerly low-level jet. This is still beyond the scope of any higher-res models to be sure, but latest ECMWF/GFS clearly support a decent combo of at least 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE (instability) and at least 30-40KT of deep layer wind shear (supportive of supercells at least initially). Dewpoints well into the 60s convey heavy rain/flooding potential as well. Whatever happens Saturday night (in terms of how widespread storms are) will probably have at least some bearing on Sunday, as although the ECMWF (more so than the GFS) keeps some healthy instability around, both models usher a weak cold front through our CWA...which should in theory shunt any higher- end severe storm chances to our south. Again though, it's just too early for many details at this still Day 4-5 range...and there is still time for severe storm concerns to ramp up more OR perhaps decrease a bit. Temperature-wise, highs trended down very slightly from previous, but are aimed mostly mid-upper 80s Saturday...upper 70s-mid 80s Sunday. - MONDAY-TUESDAY: We remain under west-northwesterly flow aloft, with passing weak disturbances bringing continued intermittent/mainly isolated- to-scattered rain and thunderstorm chances. However, instability currently appears markedly lower than the weekend and thus more muted severe potential. High temps currently aimed mainly upper 70s-low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this period...with overall few clouds expected. Main story for this period lies with winds, which are expected to be gusty throughout the period. This evening/overnight, winds remain mainly southerly...to a little more southwesterly closer to dawn...gusts near 25-30 MPH will be possible. Even with those gusts, models continue to show the potential for LLWS, so kept that mention going. A frontal boundary pushing through the region will usher in a switch to northwesterly winds for the daytime hours on Wednesday...with gusts closer to 35 MPH expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Regarding WEDNESDAY near-critical fire weather conditions: First of all and most importantly, we have deemed grasses/vegetation across our entire CWA to be "green enough" (in some far western areas JUST green enough) to NOT SUPPORT truly widespread wildfire growth/spread. As a result, we have NO Fire Weather Watches/Warnings posted for Wednesday. That being said, the meteorological combination of moderately- strong northwest winds and seasonably-low relative humidity (RH) does make the Wednesday wildfire threat higher-than-average by mid-June standards, and we are officially calling it near- critical for our area. More specifically, nearly our entire CWA will see the combination of the following for several hours from mid-late morning through early evening: - 1) Northwest winds gusting at least 30-45 MPH (overall- strongest counties north of I-80) - 2) Relative humidity as low as 15-25% (overall-lowest in our KS counties along with far western Nebraska counties such as Dawson/Gosper/Furnas/Harlan. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch AVIATION...ADP FIRE WEATHER...Pfannkuch ####018003723#### FXUS62 KILM 162338 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 738 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation for 00Z terminal forecasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday. 2) Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday. 3) Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles thru Wednesday, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday. DESCRIPTION... Atlantic high pressure at the surface along with high pressure aloft will lead to unseasonably hot and humid conditions Thu with heat indices likely surpassing Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for most of the area, especially over SE NC east of I-95 and coastal SC. KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday. DESCRIPTION...An approaching cold front could lead to some severe storms late Thu thru Fri. The main severe threat is damaging winds but tornadoes will also be possible, especially if an area of low pressure (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 1) also moves through the area. However, confidence is low due to uncertainty regarding the strength/track/timing of the possible low pressure system. KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles thru Wednesday, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River. DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides along with persistent positive tidal anomalies will lead to minor tidal flooding during the evening high tide cycle this evening along the entire coast, including the lower reaches of the Cape Fear River. Minor tidal flooding is possible again during the Wednesday evening high tide cycle, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Despite current VFR conditions, expect to see deteriorating flying conditions overnight due to the development of low clouds and scattered showers. The thunder threat remains too low to mention for now. Have maintained no worse than MVFR cigs for now but IFR cigs are possible late tonight into early Wed, mainly at KLBT/KFLO. Conditions should improve aft 18Z Wednesday. Extended Forecast...expect mainly VFR Wed night thru Thu. An approaching stronger cold front along with a potential low pressure system and tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night into Sat due to more plentiful showers/storms. VFR expected Sat night/Sun. && .MARINE... Tonight through Sunday...An inland cold front will dissipate as Atlantic high pressure takes over starting tonight. A decent pressure gradient will result in wind gusts near Small Craft Advisory levels at times thru Wed night. A stronger cold front and potential low pressure system late week should bring at least Small Craft Advisory conditions to the nearshore waters and potential for gales in the offshore waters, mainly north of Cape Fear. However, confidence remains low as much depends on the strength/timing of possible low pressure. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108-110. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...31 KEY MESSAGES...RJB DISCUSSION...RJB AVIATION...31 MARINE...RJB ####018010066#### FXUS63 KDLH 162339 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Wednesday night. Totals from 0.5"-1.0" with locally higher amounts are forecast in the southern half of the Northland, with amounts decreasing with northward extent. - Temperatures remain on the cool side through the week, then warming up a bit into the weekend. There is a 20-50% chance for additional showers and non-severe storms on Thursday afternoon and Friday, otherwise becoming mostly dry for this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Rest of Today: The surface low pressure in NE WI is exiting to our east this afternoon, with lingering scattered shower and non-severe thunderstorm activity mainly in NE WI also exiting to our east by this evening. These storms will remain sub-severe as only a few hundred J/kg of instability and weak shear are present. With that said, the presence of 50-100 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, cooler air aloft, and weak shear may support the development of a few funnel clouds or weak landspout tornadoes in north-central WI through the remainder of the afternoon. A mix of clouds and sun are present in the Northland this afternoon with high temperatures forecast to top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, though slightly cooler along the North Shore and the Twin Ports immediately near Lake Superior. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph persist through early evening before becoming light towards sunset. Areas outside of NW WI and away from Lake Superior see minimum relative humidity values dip to the upper 20s to 40%, though some pockets of around 25% relative humidity can't be ruled out in spots across north-central MN through early evening. This combination of winds and lower RH could lead to pockets of elevated fire concerns, but widespread elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. RH recovers this evening and tonight. Tonight - Thursday: A robust fall-like clipper system will slide through the Upper Midwest tonight through Wednesday night, bringing scattered to widespread rain showers to much of the Northland. Deterministic and ensemble low pressure forecasts show the pressure dipping into the 986-992 mb range, being unusually deep for this time of year as highlighted by the forecast low pressure of less than the 1st percentile in the NAEFS CFSR climatology. Latest precipitation probabilities are 70-100% along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, and drop off to 20-50% north towards the International Border where intrusion of drier low-level air will be more persistent as the system moves through. Moderate to locally heavier precipitation amounts are possible in southern portions of the Northland with this system, with a widespread 0.4-0.8" forecast for the Brainerd Lakes east into Northwest Wisconsin. PWATs in excess of an inch in these areas combined with scattered thunderstorm potential and frontogenetic banding, particularly Wednesday afternoon into early evening, could produce localized pockets upwards of 1-1.5". Rainfall amounts diminish with northward extent towards 0.05-0.25" along and north of the Iron Range, and very limited accumulations around the International Border. Regarding the storm potential Wednesday afternoon, high- resolution and ensemble low tracks largely keep the surface low track and most of the associated warm sector south of the Northland, and the severe chances along with it. However, as the surface low is tracking just to our south Wednesday afternoon, the surface warm front may work its way as far north as Pine County, MN, into inland NW WI, which could introduce a narrow corridor of 300-700 J/kg of MUCAPE. Model 0- 6 km bulk shear forecasts are fairly weak at this time--10 to 20 kt-- along with weak mid-level lapse rates and limited downdraft CAPE. As such, can't rule out a few strong storms with small hail or locally gusty winds, but the majority of any storms that develop Wednesday afternoon into early evening would be more general pulse storm modes. Precipitation becomes showers again after sunset Wednesday evening and largely comes to an end Wednesday night, though isolated shower chances linger into Thursday morning. Additional isolated, non-severe storms develop Thursday afternoon into early evening in the Arrowhead and NW WI as additional mid/upper- level shortwave trough energy moves through the area. Otherwise, aside from showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday's weather will be marked by seasonably cooler temperatures and somewhat breezy daytime conditions out of the southeast to northeast on Wednesday and northwest on Thursday. Highs temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s are forecast on Wednesday and mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Strong onshore flow and building waves to 3-5 ft for Wednesday afternoon and evening is giving a high confidence signal for high rip current risk to develop for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will very likely be needed on Wednesday. Friday - This Coming Weekend: Northwest flow in the mid/upper-levels continues on Friday with shortwave troughing energy moving through forecast to bring additional chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and non-severe storms on Friday, with best potential for storms in the afternoon. Surface high pressure moving in for this weekend should keep the Northland mainly dry, but 10-20% chances for spotty diurnal showers cannot be completely ruled out. The Northland also sees a slight warming trend this weekend with high temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Diurnal showers diminished except for a small area of showers south of HYR. The next batch of precipitation will move into the terminals from the northwest starting this evening and continuing through most of Wednesday. Ceilings and visibility will trend into MVFR and IFR categories as low pressure passes across southern Minnesota. Onshore winds near DLH will create a potential for LIFR ceilings Wednesday. As of this forecast, kept them IFR for now. A few thunderstorms are not out of the question although confidence in timing and location is below 30 percent at the TAF sites as of this update. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Primarily light and variable winds for today and tonight. East to northeast winds ramp up and become gusty on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes south of the area. Winds funneling into the head of Lake Superior will increase gusts to 20-30 kt for the afternoon and evening. Also can't rule out a 30% chance for brief gales near the Twin Ports, either. Wave heights also increase to 3-5 ft near the Twin Ports, as well. Given these hazardous conditions, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to the Apostle Islands for late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Showers and may accompany these strong winds at times on Wednesday. Winds become lighter Wednesday night with a wind shift to northwesterly following a cold front. Winds increase to 5-15 kt with gusts to 10-18 kt on Thursday, but hazardous conditions for small craft are not anticipated at this time. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Low pressure exiting eastern Wisconsin is continuing to produce scattered showers and non-severe storms through the remainder of this afternoon, as well as some daytime scattered showers in far northern Minnesota. Min RH by late this afternoon dips to the upper 20s to 40% in northeast Minnesota, but can't completely rule out pockets of RH near 25% in north-central Minnesota. Higher RH is forecast for the rest of the afternoon in northwest Wisconsin. North to northwest with gusts to 15-20 mph continue through early evening before becoming light and variable tonight with RH recovering above 80%. A rainy low pressure system tonight through Wednesday night is likely to bring 0.4"-0.8" of rain to the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin, though some pockets of up to 1-1.5" cannot be ruled out in those locations, either. There may be a fairly sharp gradient roughly along the US-2 corridor in northeast Minnesota where amounts of around 0.25" or less are expected. Areas near the International Border may even only see a couple hundredths to around 0.10" of rain. Severe weather is not expected, though a few strong storms with small hail and locally gusty winds could develop in Pine County to inland northwest Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon. Additional 20-50% chances for scattered, light showers and storms are possible Thursday afternoon and on Friday, but conditions become largely rain-free this weekend as surface high pressure moves into the region. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ143-146. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ147-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Rothstein FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein