####018010136#### FXUS61 KPHI 222259 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 659 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure extending eastward from the Midwest to the Mid- Atlantic will continue to build eastward toward the East Coast through Tuesday. A cold front will swing through our region on Wednesday, followed by another area of high pressure pushing southeastward from the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. An approaching warm front will bring a chance for some rain showers over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 6:45PM...Surface high pressure continues to maintain influence over the region; conditions are quiet overall. There is a growing concern for frost/freeze development tonight. Winds across the region are forecast to go light and variable if not calm for most of the period. Skies will remain clear throughout the period with surface high pressure overhead. Strong radiational cooling will likely take for hold and it is likely guidance remains too high once again as it was last night regarding temperatures. Frost Advisory has been extended southward and a Freeze Warning is now in effect for many of our counties in our forecast area. Previous discussion remains below... High pressure will build out of the southern states tonight and across the east coast and Mid Atlantic region through Tuesday. For tonight, mostly clear skies will prevail across the area, and whatever wind there is early in the evening will become light and variable if not calm through the overnight hours. Temperatures are expected to cool off across the area. On Tuesday, another nice day is expected, but as the high builds offshore, winds will increase out of the south to southwest and become gusty 15-25 mph range. Clouds will also begin to increase across the area later in the day ahead of the next weather system. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than Monday, but remain near normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift eastward to the East Coast on Tuesday, with the high centered off the coast of the Carolinas, while a ridge extending northward shifts offshore of the mid- Atlantic coast. Stable atmospheric conditions with an upper-level shortwave ridge along the East Coast will ensure another dry day with mostly sunny skies. Expect another frosty start to the day in areas inland from the coast and away from the urban corridor, but less so in the Delmarva. Southerly breezes and warm air advection aloft will result in high temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than Monday, well into the mid to upper 60s for most areas outside of the shore and the Poconos. Clouds will increase Tuesday night as low pressure tracking across Quebec and northern New England swings a cold front toward our region. Showers may push southeastward down to the coast by dawn on Wednesday. That will result in much milder nighttime and early morning temperatures compared to the previous few nights. Model guidance has continued to advertise an earlier frontal passage, pushing offshore Wednesday morning. This system continues to look quite moisture starved as well, without a tap to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts should be less than a quarter-inch, and perhaps less than a tenth of an inch, for most locations through Wednesday. Following an initial frontal passage early in the day, a secondary front looks to approach by late day. Models are indicating conditionally unstable conditions Wednesday afternoon with this, and with the mid-level trough also approaching, there may still be some pop up showers with even some rumbles of thunder in the afternoon, especially northwest of the Fall Line. And given fairly steep lapse rates in the low and mid levels, some of these showers/storms could even contain some hail and gusty winds. Expect warm temperatures for the most part on Wednesday, at least southeast of the Appalachians, but accompanied by brisk northwest winds in the afternoon and evening. Skies will clear as high pressure quickly builds southeastward from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning. If the atmosphere can decouple and winds calm, that could set the stage for another frosty morning in spots, especially the more favorable locations like interior NJ and eastern PA north and west of the Fall Line. Thursday is shaping up to be mainly sunny and cooler under the influence of high pressure with highs in the 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect dry weather and mostly clear skies through Friday as strong high pressure remains in control along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Friday morning may see yet another frosty morning inland and outside perhaps the most urban areas. Afternoon highs should then be in the 50s to low 60s. Models continue to struggle with the forecast specifics regarding any rain over the weekend, but the general synoptic set-up looks to be low pressure lifting across the upper Great Lakes, with a warm front trying to cross the Appalachians. That may bring some showers in, particularly across eastern PA at some point over the weekend, but at this point am not expecting a washout by any means. Sunday may finally see some high temperatures rising above seasonal averages, possibly into the 70s. This looks to continue into Monday with increasing shower/storm chances by late day as a cold front starts to approach. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots. Gusts drop off later this afternoon. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots early, becoming light and variable this evening and overnight. High confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Light and variable winds early become south to southwest 5-10 knots after daybreak, gusting 15-20 knots later in the morning into the afternoon. High confidence. Outlook... Tuesday Night - Wednesday...Potential for MVFR conditions at times, as a cold front brings showers and a wind shift from southerly to W/NW. Thursday - Friday...VFR. Saturday...Potential for stratus deck with MVFR cigs. && .MARINE... For tonight, conditions will remain below advisory levels although winds could gust around 20 knots this evening. For Tuesday, winds start below advisory levels, but will increase through the day and likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels on the northern half of the New Jersey coastal waters, as well as Delaware Bay. Therefore we have issued a Small Craft Advisory for these areas. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday... Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, at least due to seas. SW winds around 15 kt gusting 20 to 25 kt, shifting to the W/NW later in the day as a cold front swings through. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Thursday...SCA possible early in the morning due to lingering elevated seas. Diminishing NE to E winds. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Friday...Easterly winds 10-15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Saturday...Southeast winds 10 t0 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry airmass has engulfed the region today. Northwest winds will generally be around 10-15 mph, with gusts 15-20 mph this afternoon. Although these winds are not all that strong, surface dew points are anticipated to mix down into the low to mid 20s. This will result in Min RH values in the 20-25% range across E PA and NJ and 25-30% range across E MD and DE. As such we have issued a Special Weather Statement for increased fire danger. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, with only slightly higher winds and RH values. We will likely need another Special Weather Statement on Tuesday as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of southerly flow will develop during the middle of the week ahead of a cold front that will push offshore on Thursday. This is forecast to result in surge values rising to around 1-2 feet above normal along Delaware Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and Chesapeake Bay. With the full moon occurring on Tuesday, astronomical tides will be maximized around this time as well. This should result in some areas of minor coastal flooding with the Wednesday night high tide, although the extent and exact areas that may experience the most impact remains unclear at this time. Coastal flooding is not currently anticipated along the Atlantic coast, except for potentially Barnegat Bay. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071- 104-106. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ060>062- 101>103-105. NJ...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ016>019- 023. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ001- 007>010-012-013-015-020>022-027. DE...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001>003. MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ012-015- 019-020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/Fitzsimmons NEAR TERM...Robertson/Wunderlin SHORT TERM...AKL/Dodd/Fitzsimmons LONG TERM...AKL/Dodd/Fitzsimmons AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Robertson/Wunderlin MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Robertson/Wunderlin FIRE WEATHER... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018006851#### FXUS63 KSGF 222300 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered shower and a few storms will occur on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves south through the area. The highest precipitation chances will be across the eastern Ozarks with chances decreasing to the west. Not all locations will be affected by this activity. - Shower and storm chances return Thursday and will continue at times through the weekend. There will be the potential for some strong to severe storms Friday into the weekend but confidence in details are still low. - Above normal temperatures return this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 An area of surface high pressure has moved south of the area allowing the pressure gradient to tighten across the region behind the high. As a result, southerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will continue to occur into early this evening. Winds will weaken slightly tonight but will become gusty again on Tuesday morning. A dry air mass is in place across the area as afternoon humidity values have dropped into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. Moisture will start to recover tonight into the middle week limiting fire weather risk after today. Highs this afternoon will top out in the middle 60s to near the 70 degree mark. Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will cool into the middle 40s to the middle 50s as the warmer air mass moves over the region. Highs Tuesday will warm into the upper 60s to the middle 70s with some upper 70s readings possible across southern Missouri. An upper level trough will move across the northern Plains tonight and then move southeast into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. A cold front will move south through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the trough. The better upper level lift and support will remain northeast of the area and instability will be on the weaker side. Some weak uncapped elevated instability will likely be able to develop across portions of southern Missouri and the eastern Ozarks Tuesday afternoon and evening allowing for a few storms to occur. No severe weather will occur. The better coverage with this activity, still likely scattered in nature, will be across the eastern Ozarks where the better lift will be. All locations will not be affected by this activity and many locations will likely remain dry especially across southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri. The front will stall across Arkansas on Wednesday and much of the area should remain dry through the day. An isolated light rain shower cannot be ruled out across far southwestern Missouri but most if not all locations should remain dry on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 An upper level trough will move onto the west coast on Wednesday and will move east into the central Plains on Thursday and will then lift northeast through Plains on Friday. Surface low pressure will develop ahead of the trough and also lift northeast across the plains. As this occurs the stalled front across Arkansas will lift north as a warm front across the region on Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will occur along the front, with the best coverage likely across far southwestern Missouri. All locations may not be affected by this activity. Moisture will continue to increase across the region behind the warm front late this week. Instability will start to increase across the area on Friday. As the upper level trough lifts northeast on Friday a cold front will move east across Kansas and Oklahoma. With the upper level trough moving northeast, the front will stall across the Plains on Friday into Saturday. With the front stalling, storms will move off the front and move east. An unstable air mass will develop as Gulf moisture returns to the region. The questions become what the coverage and how far east the storms will move. If the storms form a cold pool they could race east through the area Friday evening and night. There will be the potential for strong to severe storms with this activity, but questions remain in the coverage and how far east the risk makes it on Friday night. On Saturday the front will remain stalled across Kansas and Oklahoma. Additional storms will likely form along the front and move east. With the upper level trough moving off to the northeast, a cap could develop across the area on Saturday. Again if a cold pool can develop the storms may be able to make it into portions of the area on Saturday but again questions remain on coverage and how far east storms will be able to make it, especially if a cap develops over the region. Strong to severe storms will be possible again on Saturday across portions of the area if storms can develop. Another upper level trough will move across the region late this weekend into early next week. There are still differences in the ensemble members on the exact track, timing, and strength of this upper level trough. The trough should move the front through the region at some time from Sunday into Monday. Gulf moisture will continue to advect into the area ahead of this system and with height falls from the trough, instability should increase and the cap weaken. Deep layer shear will also increase with strong to severe storms once again possible, but the details will be dependent on the exact track and timing of the system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Clouds will increase on Tuesday and there is a 20 percent chance for a shower in the afternoon or early evening however confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will remain southwesterly and gusty until late in the day Tuesday as a front begins to switch it to the west. Winds will then switch to the northwest after this TAF period. Low level wind shear is likely tonight at the sites. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 26: KSGF: 66/2016 April 27: KSGF: 67/1899 April 28: KSGF: 68/1896 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Burchfield CLIMATE...Camden ####018004315#### FXUS63 KAPX 222300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very high fire danger through early this evening. - Showers tonight and Tuesday. Slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. - Colder Tue night and Wednesday, then moderating temps. - Active weather likely this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure and an associated surface cold front will cross the region later tonight into Tuesday. Forecast: Clouds will increase and thicken tonight. A band of showers expected to cross the region late tonight into early Tuesday from west to east. This will be followed by a lull in the action for much of Tuesday morning. Showers and possible embedded thunder likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. Instability is weak but looks like possibly up to a few hundred j/kg of cape across southeast zones. The airmass remains rather dry however with precipitable water values only increasing to around a half inch. Surface dewpoints will be lucky to make it to much above the low 40s Tuesday. Can't rule out locally gusty winds and pea sized hail, mainly as you head down toward Saginaw Bay. In the meantime, high fire danger and the associated red flag warning continues across all of northern lower into early this evening due to gusty southwest winds, very low relative humidity and very dry fine fuels. Lows tonight in the mild low and mid 40s. Highs Tuesday generally ranging from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A trough swings out of the region and shifts winds from west to north as a frontal boundary and a cooler airmass push into the area heading into Wednesday. Heights rise later in the week due to a ridge of high pressure building across the Plains resulting in quiet and mild weather for Northern Michigan (potentially leading to fire weather concerns). However, by the weekend, another shot of energy is expected to make its way from the Plains to the upper Midwest resulting in likely active weather for this upcoming weekend. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: Active weather likely this upcoming weekend: An upper-level low and its associated surface low pressure are expected to track northward from the central Plains to the upper Midwest. At this time, showers appear likely, with the potential for some embedded thunderstorms possible. Looking at guidance, decent CAPE looks to advect into the region making this setup something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Accompanying these showers, could be some pretty gusty winds with some areas potentially seeing gusts up to 40 mph. However, with this setup being several days away, stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Initial upstream cold front will swing thru our CWA overnight... providing sct/nmrs showers late tonight into early Tuesday. We will see a brief break in the action Tuesday morning...before additional chances of showers and possibly some thunderstorms develop Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the secondary main cold front as it sweeps thru our region Tuesday night. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours...dropping to MVFR at times within some heavier shower activity. LLWS will develop across portions of Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan late tonight. Surface winds will remain from the SW at 10 to 20 kts...becoming SW and eventually W/NW on Tuesday and strengthening to 15 to 25 kts behind the secondary cold front. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345- 346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MLR ####018003307#### FXUS64 KJAN 222300 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 The rest of today and tomorrow... Calm and cool weather is expected to continue for the remainder of the day through tomorrow afternoon. A surface high is expected to continue tracking eastwards into the CWA, bringing cool, northeasterly flow into the region. This will allow for below normal temperatures through the remainder of today into tonight. Highs will top out in the upper 60s to near 70s, which is nearly 10-15 degrees below average for the latter half of April. Overnight lows look to dip into the lower 40s. Some areas in the north may drop into the upper 30s, while some areas in the southeast may overachieve with evaporational cooling as the high migrates east overnight. Tomorrow, dry conditions will continue as the high pressure shifts closer to the southeast region , which will allow for southerly flow to increase from the southwest. This will enable moisture to sneak back into the region and temperatures to increase once again. Tomorrow's highs look to increase into the lower to upper 70s across the region. /AJ/ Tuesday night through Sunday night... Surface high pressure and dry conditions will prevail Tuesday night, with warmer overnight lows mainly in the 50s. A short wave will push a weak frontal boundary into the area early on Wednesday, but currently it mainly looks dry, but a couple of isolated showers will be possible in the north on Wednesday. The frontal boundary will continue to extend across the northern portions of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another stronger short wave will move across the north Thursday into Thursday evening, and this may kick off a few showers/storms mainly north of I-20 Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Friday and continue into Saturday. A series of short waves will move from Northeast Texas into Arkansas over the weekend, but the ECMWF keeps the bulk of the precipitation to our west through Sunday night. Showers and storms may clip the Delta on Saturday and we could see a little more activity on Sunday and Sunday night, but the latest runs are becoming drier for Sunday. Highs over the weekend will be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s./15/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Surface wind will shift a southerly direction Tuesday, and will become gusty during time of peak heating. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 42 76 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 41 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 42 76 56 80 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 42 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 42 76 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 45 73 59 77 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 44 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ AJ/15/EC ####018005546#### FXUS62 KRAH 222302 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 702 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance over the region will push east and offshore by early evening. High pressure will build overhead tonight through Tuesday, then shift to our southeast. The resulting southwest flow will bring warming temperatures through mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 700 PM Monday... Quick update... We have issued a Frost Advisory for all of the CWA except for Guilford and Forsyth Counties tonight based on latest MET and MEX statistical guidance, which tend to be favored in strong radiational cooling scenarios. This morning's 1000-850mb thickness was 1316m at GSO which would also lean toward more mid 30s with no airmass moderation. -BLS A quiet but cool night ahead. The mid level shortwave trough over E NC continues to push eastward, yielding the onset of deep layer subsidence and drying. The remaining stratocu over the S and E sections will slowly diminish as this drier air works in with stabilization as we reach and pass sunset, resulting in a clear night with calming winds as the surface high settles overhead. As lower dewpoints in the 20s to lower 30s pour into the area from the N, this combined with excellent radiational cooling conditions will bring about a risk for isolated frost patches, primarily over the rural areas of the far N Piedmont for an hour or two before sunrise. Currently, it appears that any frost will be too isolated in nature and briefly to result in any hazardous conditions or damage to vegetation, so after collaboration with surrounding offices, will not issue a frost advisory at this time. Expect lows of 36-42. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Monday... Central NC will be under the influence of shortwave ridging on Tuesday between a closed mid/upper low moving NE in the western Atlantic and a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Upper Great Lakes. So height rises and subsidence will keep us dry and sunny. At the surface, ~1025 mb high pressure centered over GA and the Carolinas on Tuesday morning will shift SE and offshore in the afternoon. This will shift the low-level flow to a southwesterly direction, helping bring 1000-850 mb thicknesses 20-30 m higher than today, supporting warmer high temperatures mainly in the lower-70s. This is still about 1-3 degrees below normal. Lows on Tuesday night will be near normal in the SE and slightly above normal in the NW, where mid and high clouds will be on the increase in advance of the aforementioned northern stream shortwave that will be moving into the OH Valley and Appalachians. This will make for fairly uniform lows in the upper-40s to lower-50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 241 PM Monday... An upper level trough will swing across the Northeast Wednesday morning followed by a weak shortwave swinging across the northern Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night. By Friday, upper level ridging will take over through the weekend resulting in fair weather for the latter half of the long term period. At the surface, a low pressure system centered over the southern portions of Quebec early Wednesday morning will trail a cold front south along the Appalachian Mountains. While showers will be persistent west and north of the mountains latest model guidance is showing much of the forcing loosing energy east of the mountain range thus limiting the chance for rain across Central NC. Expect some passing sprinkles Wednesday afternoon as the front moves across the region. As the front moves offshore overnight, a cool dry high pressure will build into the region with northeasterly winds taking over. If conditions clear out early enough Thursday morning, light NE winds could help result in some patchy fog across portions of the NE Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Thursday and Friday are expected to be fair weather days with mostly sunny skies and temps in the upper 60s north, to low/mid 70s across the south. As high pressure and upper level ridging strengthens across our region over the weekend and early next week temperatures are expected to increase quickly with highs in the mid/upper 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, then by Monday mid 80s across the entire region. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Monday... Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail across central NC for the next 24 hours, as we remain under a ridge of high pressure. Scattered to briefly broken stratocu currently over the area will diminish toward nightfall, with generally clear skies through Tue. Surface winds from the N or NE will be mostly under 10 kts then diminish to light toward sunset. Looking beyond 18z Tue, while a few light showers or sprinkles are possible Wed with passage of an upper level disturbance and surface cold front, we will otherwise be under high pressure, with VFR conditions holding through Sat. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011- 023>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIH NEAR TERM...BLS/GIH SHORT TERM...Danco LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...GIH ####018005568#### FXUS64 KCRP 222304 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 604 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Some lingering showers remain across the Coastal Bend and marine zones this afternoon. A low chance for showers (10-30%) will stick around until early this evening. Though model guidance shows PWAT values between 1.25-1.50 inches (within the 50th and 90th percentile for this time of year) remaining in the forecast, conditions should clear by the overnight hours as the likelihood of the existence a lifting mechanism to induce precipitation activity subsides. Increasing low level moisture will continue in the short term as an eastward moving high pressure center allows for south-southeasterly onshore flow to return. This low level flow will usher in some mid level clouds tonight, that will slowly mix out on Tuesday. The clouds will keep low temperatures below normal tonight, with inland areas of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads reaching the mid 50s and elsewhere reaching the low-to-mid 60s. Highs will also be slightly below normal Tuesday before a greater warming trend sets in during the long term. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Key Messages: ▶ Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Saturday as feels- like temperatures flirt around 100 ▶ Breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph Thursday through Saturday A mid-level ridge over Mexico will induce ridging aloft over South Texas on Wednesday with a very weak shortwave embedded over the northeastern periphery. Keeping a very low (<10%) chance of convection on Wednesday due to the weak disturbance and above normal moisture. Ridging amplifies on Thursday and the surface pressure gradient tightens as cyclogenesis develops Lee side of the Rockies and causes breezy southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts near 35 mph. Thursday night through this weekend, a series of mid-level troughs will dig into the Desert SW CONUS and traverse across the Great Plains, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft and a severe threat well north of our area. Although we will have weak shortwave disturbances associated with this trough over South Texas and moisture above normal with PWATs around 1.5", we'll lack a sufficient surface lifting mechanism and have a large cap to overcome from 850-700mb. Therefore, only have a low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms brushing the northern tier counties from La Salle to Victoria Friday through Sunday where the cap would be most favorable to break. In addition, breezy conditions will be in place with southeasterly winds 20-25 mph over the Coastal Plains. Temperatures will warm through the rest of the week with a low to medium chance (20-50%) of apparent temperatures exceeding 95 over the Brush Country on Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s and lows will persist from the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR ceilings will slowly give way to MVFR ceilings over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop for LRD and COT between 04-06Z and persist through 20-21Z. For the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Periods of MVFR ceilings are possible from 10Z-15Z so have included a TEMPO group for this for ALI, CRP, and VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Weak to moderate east-northeasterly winds will eventually transition to the southeast tonight. Low chances (10-30%) for rain will continue this evening across the marine zones with drier conditions overnight tonight and Tuesday. Generally weak to moderate onshore flow Wednesday will strengthen to moderate to strong Thursday and persist through into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. There is a medium to high chance (50-90%) of Small Craft Advisories needed during the latter half of this week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Relative humidity values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds while winds remain below critical thresholds for much of the week. Southeasterly winds 15-20 mph Wednesday will increase to 15-25 mph Thursday and persist through the weekend. The strongest winds will likely be focused over the Coastal Plains where relative humidity remains above 40%. Winds over 20 mph at 20 ft are not expected to coexist with relative humidity below 30%. Therefore, there are no elevated fire weather concerns this week at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 62 81 71 85 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 57 81 66 85 / 0 0 10 10 Laredo 63 83 71 90 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 59 81 68 87 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 66 81 72 83 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 62 82 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 60 81 69 85 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 68 79 73 83 / 10 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS LONG TERM....EMF AVIATION...LS/77 ####018004315#### FXUS64 KOUN 222304 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 604 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Mainly clear conditions are expected tonight with a breezy south wind. Despite a clear sky, the wind and increase in dewpoints will keep temperatures much warmer than this morning. A few thunderstorms may develop by late Tuesday afternoon/early evening, as a cold front moves across the area. During peak heating, the front is expected to extend from far southwestern Oklahoma into central and northeast Oklahoma. A capping inversion may prevent thunderstorm development along the front, but there are several models that suggest at least isolated storms will form by 5- 7 pm. Storms that form are expected to move a little south of east around 15 to 20 mph. This may help offset rather weak winds at lower levels. Regardless, it appears if strong to severe storms form, the main hazard may be strong winds given rather high cloud heights. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Storms that form along the front Tuesday afternoon/evening will likely dissipate by the mid to late evening. Overnight into Wednesday morning, widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should develop across the northern half of Oklahoma within mid-level warm advection. This activity may linger through the morning and/or move into eastern Oklahoma. Still some uncertainly as how far south the frontal boundary will reach by early Wednesday. For now will go with the stalled front near the Red River or slightly north of this. With rather deep easterly flow north of the boundary and a decent saturated layer, light showers and drizzle may be the main precipitation type from the late morning into the afternoon/early evening. Although guidance has lowered high temperatures north of the boundary Wednesday, this may not be low enough. Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, low level winds will begin to veer and increase. This may result in a better chance of elevated thunderstorms, generally from central/north central Oklahoma into northeast Oklahoma. Elevated instability will support some strong to perhaps severe storms. How far north the warm front will lift Thursday is still uncertain. It possible that severe storms may develop near the warm front in northern Oklahoma late Thursday afternoon with additional convection along the dryline in the Panhandles. A trough will lift northeast into the central and northern Plains late Thursday into Friday. As this occurs much drier will push into the western half of Oklahoma by midday Friday afternoon. It possible that additional severe storms may form along a dryline/pacific front which will mainly impact the eastern half/third of Oklahoma. Another stronger trough is expected to lift across the southern and central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. With a more southern track, this system has the potential to produce more widespread significant severe weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR conditions this TAF period with some mid and high clouds. Low VFR clouds are possible at KDUA Tuesday. Winds will remain breezy from the south tonight with LLWS possible at all sites except at KDUA. South winds will shift towards the north Tuesday as a cold front moves across portions of the area. There is a low (<20%) chance of a few storms in western north TX/southwest OK late Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 81 57 68 / 0 10 30 60 Hobart OK 53 85 56 71 / 0 10 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 53 84 60 80 / 0 20 20 20 Gage OK 54 78 51 67 / 0 0 30 30 Ponca City OK 53 78 51 68 / 0 10 30 50 Durant OK 52 77 61 78 / 0 0 20 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...25 ####018006223#### FXUS63 KBIS 222304 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 604 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions into this evening over southwest and south central North Dakota including the James River Valley. A Red Flag Warning remains for these areas. - Winds gusting 45 to 55 mph over most of western and central North Dakota through this evening. A Wind Advisory remains for these areas. - Rains showers across the north, central, and east possible through tonight. An isolated thunderstorm also possible through this evening for these same locations. - After a mild and mainly dry mid week, unsettled pattern develops for the later part of the work week into the weekend. This will bring daily shower chances with possibly some thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Strong west to northwest winds continue across western and central ND. Expect winds to drop off after the 7 PM hour but will remain breezy to windy through the evening. Scattered showers will also help to mix down stronger winds aloft into the early evening. Showers will slowly work their way southward through the evening. No changes to ongoing Wind and Fire Weather Hazards. Updated text product will be sent shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will continue through much of this evening as a clipper system moves through. Some wind gusts in the west and north central are around 55 MPH. Regrouped the Wind Advisories to highlight areas with these higher wind gusts. South central and eastern zones in the Wind Advisory are starting to see wind gusts approach 45 MPH and could get as high as 50 mph. These winds combined with low RH will continue the critical fire weather threat into this evening, and a Red Flag Warning remains. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for the latest details. Showers are starting to redevelop across the north closer to the clipper system. There still remains some weak instability in the north and east, with some modest lapse rates. This could result in an isolated thunderstorm through the evening. The inverted v soundings in these areas could provide for a few higher wind gusts near these showers or thunderstorms. Showers could then linger through tonight, while winds ease below advisory criteria. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s. As the clipper moves east low clouds could linger across the area as well. Showers dissipated by Tuesday morning, although low clouds may linger through the morning. Breezy to perhaps windy northwest winds could linger, especially across the southeast. Slightly cooler temperatures will be found on Tuesday, mainly in the 50s. Warm westerly flow aloft, with a surface gradient bringing breezy southerly, looks to be found Wednesday. Look for mild temperatures in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Further warming and breezy southerly winds then continues for Thursday with many areas seeing high temperatures in the 70s. A broad trough pattern and developing surface low could bring some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms later in the day Thursday through Thursday night. This unsettled pattern still looks to remain through the weekend. Overall temperatures still look to remain seasonable with overnight lows near to above freezing. The highest NBM PoPs in the forecast are currently on Friday, although slight to chance pops remain through the weekend. A few thunderstorms are possible Friday, with minimal chances through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Strong northwest winds and mainly VFR conditions will continue this evening, with strongest winds 00-02 UTC. Later this evening and overnight ceilings lower to MVFR heights for most sites, with a breezy northwest wind continuing. Showers end by Tuesday morning and MVFR ceilings gradually lift to VFR heights most areas by late morning. Breezy northwest winds diminish through the morning. VFR conditions and generally light winds expected by afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Critical fire weather conditions, and a resultant Red Flag Warning, remains across much of southwestern and south central North Dakota including the James River Valley. Despite morning rain showers, these ares will see strong winds gusting 45 to 55 MPH into this evening with RH values dropping to near or even slightly below 20 percent. Areas not in a Red Flag Warning across the north will still see windy conditions, although RH values will generally be above 30 percent through the evening. Isolated near critical fire weather conditions are possible, although showers and clouds are expected to move in this evening across the north possibly spreading into the central and east. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible through this evening. Tonight, breezy northwest winds will linger with humidity recoveries 80 to 90 percent. Tuesday and Wednesday day will be mainly dry. Breezy northwest winds may linger on Tuesday, while a breezy southerly wind looks to return on Wednesday. Afternoon RH on Tuesday looks to be around 25 to 35 percent, while Wednesday sees RH slightly lower from 20 to 30 percent. If winds and low RH can line up then perhaps some near critical fire weather conditions are possible through Wednesday and may be worth monitoring. Later in the week higher moisture air moves into the area resulting in higher humidity values and rain chances. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...TWH FIRE WEATHER...Anglin ####018005941#### FXUS62 KMFL 222305 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 705 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 658 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Conditions are improving this evening as few showers linger over land and the rest of remaining activity is over the local waters. Much calmer weather will settle in tonight and through tomorrow, however there will be chances for a few lingering showers along the east coastal areas as a result of lingering moisture as the drier air slowly moves in. Otherwise, mostly dry weather takes over on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 A cold front will cross South FL today and push away from the area tonight. Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially across the east coast metro. A shortwave moving across the area this afternoon will coincide with peak heating, so there will be enough support for a few stronger storms. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few storms may contain locally damaging wind gusts. High temps this afternoon will range from the middle 80s north of Alligator Alley to upper 80s across the far southern peninsula. Despite the cold front moving away from the area tonight, some scattered coastal showers will remain possible overnight into early Tuesday morning as drier air is slow to filter in. There will be a wide range in temps overnight, with upper 50s over inland SW FL, to around 70 close to the Atlantic coast. High pressure over the SE US builds into the area for Tuesday bringing a return of drier air to the region. NE flow is expected which will bring cooler temps to the east coast metro, while SW FL will remain above normal. High temps will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s across the east coast metro to middle 80s across SW FL. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 A mid level zonal flow will give way to a weak mid level trough pushing into the region from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday into Thursday morning. At the surface, high pressure will shift into the western Atlantic as a very weak frontal boundary pushes into Northern Florida. This frontal boundary will not make it much farther south as it will wash out well off to the north which will allow for dry conditions to prevail across South Florida during this time frame. High temperatures will generally range from around 80 across the east coast to the mid to upper 80s across Southwestern Florida as easterly wind flow remains in place. Towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, A building mid level ridge will push eastward from the Gulf of Mexico and extend into the region during this time frame. At the surface, high pressure centered well off to the northeast will remain the dominate synoptic feature for the weather pattern across South Florida through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. While mainly dry conditions will remain in place, easterly wind flow will strengthen heading into the upcoming weekend. As a result, increased lower level moisture advection could produce a brief shower or two from time to time mainly over the Atlantic waters and east coast this weekend. High temperatures during the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend will remain in the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR is expected to prevail for the 00Z TAF period. NE winds are expected at all terminals overnight and on Tuesday generally around 10-12kts with gusts up to 20kts. A few light showers will be possible for the east coast terminals into the overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Hazardous marine conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front crossing the area, especially in the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay where SCA winds are expected. SCEC conditions are expected in the Gulf and Lake Okeechobee. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front today. Conditions improve on Tuesday, however SCA will continue for the Atlantic waters through Tuesday evening due to lingering high seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 There is an elevated risk of rip currents today at all South FL beaches as a cold front crosses the area. A high risk of rip currents is expected for the Atlantic beaches beginning on Tuesday and lasting through much of the week as onshore flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 70 79 68 80 / 40 0 0 0 West Kendall 67 81 64 82 / 40 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 68 81 66 82 / 40 0 0 0 Homestead 70 80 66 80 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 70 78 67 79 / 30 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 78 67 79 / 30 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 69 81 66 82 / 30 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 67 78 64 79 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 68 79 66 80 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 65 85 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Redman