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FXUS65 KPSR 032228

AFDPSR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Phoenix AZ

328 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mostly dry and generally quiet conditions are expected to

  continue into next week. A few light showers possible through

  this evening across south-central Arizona.



- Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas,

  including southern Gila County, for Thursday morning.



- Near to slightly below normal temperatures continue through the

  end of the workweek before going above normal this weekend, and

  then gradually warming through the middle of next week. 

  

&&



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Early afternoon satellite WV imagery and showed a positively tilted 

trough pushing through the Four Corners region, delivering breezy 

conditions, cooler temperatures, and some precipitation across parts 

of the state. Mostly clear skies are seen over much of the CWA 

according to the latest visible satellite imagery. However, light 

precipitation is occurring north of the Valley. Hi-res guidance show 

this light precipitation mostly diminishing as it approaches the 

lower deserts, but can't rule out a light shower sneaking further 

into parts of northern Maricopa County heading into this evening.



Out to the west across portions of southeast California and the 

Lower Colorado River Valley, breezy northerly winds continue in 

response to a tightened pressure gradient associated with this 

weather system and frontal passage. Gusts upwards of 20-30 mph will 

continue into this evening before weakening, with lingering 

breeziness possible through Thursday morning. 



The passage of this system will usher in cooler temperatures with 

morning lows flirting with freezing in a few higher terrain areas by 

tomorrow morning. Temperatures across portions of southern Gila 

County are forecast to dip near to slightly below freezing for 

tomorrow morning as the area sees some of the coldest temperatures 

so far this season. Thus, have issued a Freeze Warning for portions 

of southern Gila County, including San Carlos, Miami/Globe, and 

Tonto Basin. Meanwhile across JTNP, cold temperatures are also 

expected with a few higher elevation locales expected to dip to 

around freezing tonight. Cold temperatures continue for Friday 

morning as some of the aforementioned areas continue to flirt with 

the freezing mark. Additional Freeze Warnings may be needed as a 

result.



The trough will then propagate toward the east and out of the region 

tomorrow morning with drier conditions prevailing. Temperatures will 

then remain near to slightly below normal through the end of the 

workweek as lower desert highs top out in the mid to upper 60s each 

day.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/...

This weekend, the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will 

move eastward and stall just off the west coast. WHile the center of 

the ridge will remain over the eastern Pacific Ocean, the eastern 

portion of the ridge will be over much of Western CONUS. The center 

of this ridge will strengthen through at least the middle of next 

week. This ridge will dominate the eastern Pacific and Western CONUS 

while a longwave trough dominates Central and Eastern CONUS. 

Multiple shortwave troughs look like they will slide down the 

western part of the longwave trough, moving from the Pacific 

NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains, temporarily 

flattening the ridge. H5 heights, over the Desert SW, look to rise 

into a 576-581 dm range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm 

during the middle of next week. 



With high pressure dominating the region this weekend through at 

least the middle of next week dry and tranquil conditions will 

continue as well. Temperature wise, they will gradually warm this 

weekend and continue to warm through the middle of next week. 

Afternoon high temperatures will be near to slightly above normal 

this weekend (lower deserts: upper 60s/low 70s, higher terrain: 60s) 

and warm to 8-10 degrees above normal (lower deserts: mid to 

upper 70s, higher terrain: upper 60s to mid 70s) by the middle of 

next week. Morning low temperatures will warm to around 3-6 

degrees above normal (lower deserts: upper 40s to low 50s, higher 

terrain upper 30s to mid 40s) by the middle of next week. 



&&



.AVIATION...Updated at 1800Z. 



South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

The primary aviation weather concern during the TAF period will be

the potential (albeit low confidence) for an abrupt northeasterly

wind shift and brief gustiness around 00-02Z. Otherwise,

anticipate winds to shift to a predominantly west component within

the next hour or so and maintain this through the afternoon. This

evening, if the abrupt NE shift does not occur, winds are likely

to become light (AOB 5 kts) and begin to exhibit periods of

variability through the overnight hours. Skies will be mostly

clear with occasional FEW-SCT decks of mid and high clouds.



Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: 

Winds will vary between NW and N at both terminals through the

next 24 hours under SKC skies today followed by FEW-SCT decks of 

high clouds tonight into Thursday morning. Expect stronger winds 

at KBLH, with gusts between 15-25 kts through the afternoon then 

relaxing to AOB 10 kts this evening through the overnight hours. 

At KIPL, north winds will remain mostly AOB 11 kts and then back 

out of the NW this evening. Periods of variability may occur 

overnight into early Thursday morning. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region

through the next week, with a few light showers possible through 

this evening as a weather system passes through the Four Corners 

region. Breezy conditions, gusting upwards of 20-30 mph, will 

continue through this evening with lingering breeziness possible 

through Thursday morning. Humidities this week will stay elevated 

with MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-35% much of the time, with 

good to very good overnight recoveries. Near to slightly below 

normal temperatures are forecast through Friday before a warming 

trend pushes temperatures above normal by early next week.



&&



.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MST Thursday for 

     AZZ556-557-560-562.



CA...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Smith

LONG TERM...Berislavich 

AVIATION...Whittock 

FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Berislavich