####018004062#### FXAK67 PAJK 091404 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 604 AM AKDT Thu May 9 2024 .SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Frontal band to move through Southeast Alaska today. Expecting about 2 to 3 inches of rain through though tonight from the front. This should bump up streams and river levels through the panhandle, however, expect them to stay within the banks. Lower water levels in rivers and streams to start and snow levels below most of the higher snow covered terrain will limit the snowmelt to add to the runoff. Gusty winds for the outer coasts ahead of the front. Inner channels, especially the northern inner channels will increase this morning into the evening will result in gusts of 40 to 45 mph for several area communities including Juneau, Haines, and Skagway. A recent addition this morning weather is the midlevel (approx 10-13 kft) instability in the moisture band. Lightning detection found handful of strikes over far northern Glacier Bay and Northwestern BC, that I suspect orographic lifting over the Saint Elias Range sparked a couple of embedded thunderstorms. Will be updating forecasts to add to that area for this morning. .LONG TERM...The start of the long term will remain wet as the remnants of the heavy rain from Thursday will continue to impact the panhandle before exiting. High pressure will briefly move through the gulf bringing an end to rain for most locations. With the rain moving out, we will see some drying across the area although there is the chance for some isolated showers during the day on Saturday. Temperatures during this time look to be the warmest on Saturday as we see the least amount of clouds over the area during this time. Clouds and chances of rain start to increase across the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday as the area of high pressure that transited through the area exits the region and another low starts to move in from the west. This system will bring more increased winds and rain to the panhandle just in time for the start of next week. As we head into the Monday and Tuesday, the wet weather looks to remain around the area allowing for a continued unsettled pattern. With the unsettled and active weather, temperatures look to remain cooler than normal for the mid to long range. && .AVIATION...Another front bringing moderate to heavy rain will lead to continued widespread MVFR and IFR conditions through the morning hours Thursday. Heaviest rain rain will move from north to south through the day with greatest VIS reductions following suit. LLWS is anticipated along with strong winds at the surface. Overall conditions will improve to high end MVFR for the northern half of the panhandle by the evening hours with clearing skies through the latter half of Friday. && .MARINE...A narrow band of gale force winds along the outer waters early Thursday with Small Craft winds increasing to 25 to 30 kts for most of the inner channels from around Midday through this evening. Wind will relax late Thursday night. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight for AKZ318. Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon for AKZ319. Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT this morning through this afternoon for AKZ323. Strong Wind from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ325. Strong Wind from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ327. Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon for AKZ327. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-662>664. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-651- 652-661-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....SF AVIATION...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau ####018009706#### FXUS61 KAKQ 091409 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1009 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly push through the region later today through tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and storms later Friday into Friday night. A chance for showers continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend. Dry and warmer weather to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Thursday... -Key Message: -SPC has reduced the severe threat from slight (level 2 out of 5) to marginal (level 1 out of 5) for this afternoon. The threat is particularly low across the far northeast. Complex wx pattern expected today. Remnant debris clouds and light rain showers are spreading across the FA late this morning, in association with a remnant OH River Valley MCS from last night. However, the coverage of rain is spotty at best. Have lowered PoPs through this morning and early this aftn as sfc- based instability is quite limited and CAMs show no shower/storm development in this timeframe. The focus for any strong to severe storms later this aftn and evening will be along a sfc boundary draped roughly from the NW Piedmont into the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Overall, the threat is very conditional and contingent on airmass recovery in the wake of the aforementioned cloud cover. The biggest change to the fcst has been the reduction in the severe threat from SPC from slight (2 out of 5) to marginal (1 out of 5). N of the boundary, there will be virtually no sfc- based instability (low- level winds will be easterly/onshore), with svr wx very unlikely. Along and S of the boundary, instability may increase to adequate levels (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Given ~30 kt of bulk shear over the area, the parameter space could support some strong to severe storms. The sfc boundary may provide some localized enhanced directional shear for an isolated spin- up tornado. The latest HRRR runs continue to shower elevated 0-1 and 0-3km SRH (~200 m2/s2) by from about 20Z-00Z across the I-64 corridor (give or take ~30 miles). Otherwise, main threat would be damaging winds and perhaps some isolated larger hail if any supercells develop. High today will be in the mid/upper 80s in NE NC, but only in the 70s over the N (with readings falling into the 60s near the Atlantic coast of the ern shore). PoPs have been lowered significantly for most of today. PoPs ramp up in close alignment with the latest hi-res model runs favoring the highest coverage of storms (just rain N of the boundary) roughly along and just NE of the I-64 corridor. PoPs shift off the NE overnight and diminish (except across the far NE) after 06z. Lows mid/upper 50s N to mid 60s S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Thursday... -Key Message: - Another round of showers/storms Fri aftn/evening. Widespread severe is not expected, but gusty winds and hail will be possible. Friday starts off mainly dry (with some lingering low clouds and light rain possible over the MD eastern shore). Scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough dives SE and swings through. The associated shortwave moves across VA and the Carolinas and has trended stronger so have raised PoPs by late aftn/evening to likely for most areas. With steep mid level lapse rates expected w/ the cold pool aloft, at least scattered tstms are expected for most of the area. SPC does not have the area outlooked for any SVR, but would not be surprised to see some hail and gusty winds given the steep mid level lapse rates Fri evening. Highs on Fri will show a large range, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s MD ern shore to near 80F interior NE NC. Drying out later Fri night and cooler with lows mid/upper 40s W to the lower 50s E. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... -Key Message: -Remaining unsettled (especially north) late Sat through Sunday, dry Mon, with rain chances returning Tue-Wed. The weekend continues to look a bit unsettled, especially across the N/NE portion of the CWA as yet another shortwave drops SE from the wrn Great Lakes, and pushes across the mid Atlantic late Sat through Sunday. This pattern favors increasing clouds Sat afternoon, with low chance PoPs pushing into the NW by late afternoon, spreading through the region Sat night/early Sunday. Cool Sat with highs in the low-mid 60s NE to around 70F over the SW. The airmass will be fairly dry so not expecting much QPF with this system (generally 0.10" or less with a little more possible across the NE). Will have PoPs to ~40% over the N late Sat/Sat night into early Sunday, with PoPs only ~15-20% in NC. The models still differ with respect to the strength of the upper trough on Sunday, so will maintain PoPs up to 25-30% across the NE, while southern VA and NE NC should be dry. Remaining cool with highs in the 60s NE to the low-mid 70s SW. It looks dry from Sunday night through Monday with lows in the 40s inland to the 50s near the coast, followed by highs Mon in the mid-upper 70s. Unsettled conditions return Tue as a southern stream system moves ENE twd the mid Atlantic, and across the area Wed. High chc PoPs for now. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 AM EDT Thursday... Mainly VFR this morning w/ brief showers (most thunder stays S of the main terminals other than perhaps ECG). W to SW winds ~10kt (except becoming NE at SBY). Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later this aftn into this evening. Any showers/storms may produce brief periods of reduced VSBYs. A few stronger storms possible late aftn/this evening could produce gusty winds (except at SBY where just rain is expected). Winds will become ENE most areas later tonight. Outlook: Drying out from W to E overnight, but low CIGs and flight restrictions are likely (especially at SBY where rain/drizzle may linger overnight). Morning flight restrictions continue Fri (especially SBY) then VFR for most of the day. Expect to see redeveloping showers/tstms later Friday afternoon and evening (with flight restrictions expected). Mainly dry most of Saturday, but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry Mon. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday... Primary area of low pressure is centered near St. Louis early this morning with a cold front extending down to the S and SW into NE TX. A stationary front remains draped across the Midwest and eastward along the Mason Dixon line and further NE into another area of low pressure over New England. Winds aloft are largely W-SW with several perturbations/kinks noted in the flow. Winds locally are from the W or SW 5-10 kt with gust to 15 kt. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. Complex scenario is expected to unfold today with most guidance now showing the stationary front making south and southwestward progress in a backdoor fashion this morning. Winds behind the boundary will generally be easterly 10-15 kt while areas to the south of the front will see continued S or SW flow around 10 kt. One of the aforementioned shortwaves aloft will result in weak surface cyclogenesis inland this afternoon which should cause the boundary to stall across the local waters later this afternoon into the evening hours. Guidance is quite variable regarding the potential for and coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with substantial convection upstream lending uncertainty regarding the degree of local destabilization this afternoon. Any storms that are able to form will pose a threat for strong winds this afternoon and evening. There is even a chance for tornadoes/waterspouts if a storm is able to ride along the frontal boundary. The front will linger across the area tonight with widely varying wind directions on either side of the boundary. Low pressure develops along the front Friday evening which will steepen the pressure gradient with NE winds increasing to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound while offshore zones see closer to 20-25 kt. SCA headlines are likely Friday night into Saturday before deepening low pressure pulls away from the region. 1-2 ft waves in the bay will persist through most of Friday before increasing to 2-3 ft late Friday into Saturday. Seas generally maintain 3-4 ft through Friday afternoon but increase to 4-6 ft by early Saturday morning. Improving marine conditions are expected later on Saturday with seas likely falling below SCA thresholds Saturday evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday... Coastal Flood Advisories continue for bayside portions of the MD Eastern Shore through 7 am. The subsequent high tide this afternoon is not expected to cause any coastal flooding but the next high tide could see another round of nuisance to minor flooding in these same areas late tonight. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/SW SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...