####018006768#### FXUS63 KDLH 091120 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight and early morning showers and thunderstorms to move east of the CWA by late morning. - Near-normal temperatures for August are expected through this week. - There are chances for rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms about every other day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 An area of showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms will move across the region early this morning, driven by a weak upper level disturbance. The highest rainfall amounts will be found across the Iron Range and Arrowhead, where localized totals between a quarter and half an inch are possible before rain shifts eastward across Lake Superior and parts of northwest Wisconsin. Skies will clear from west to east by afternoon, yielding a mostly sunny and pleasant afternoon. Generally quiet conditions and clear skies will prevail tonight as weak high pressure settles over the Upper Midwest. Light winds and radiational cooling will promote patchy fog development during the late overnight and early morning hours, particularly across parts of northwest Wisconsin. Any fog will clear quickly after sunrise Monday, leading to a mostly sunny day. A series of weak atmospheric disturbances riding along a stalled front to the south will reintroduce periodic rain chances starting Monday afternoon and night and continuing through Wednesday. This pattern will help create a 10 to 30 percent chance of scattered showers and non-thunderstorms every day or two. The severe weather threat will stay focused well to our south across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin. This will also keep temperatures near to just below normal through this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026 Increasing cumulus clouds and a slight haze high in the sky will be the main weather story for this afternoon and evening as wildfire smoke drifts overhead. Despite the haze, it will be a very pleasant and comfortable day across the Northland. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 70s to the lower 80s, and with humidity remaining relatively low. The International Border will likely see some high-based showers passing through that area of far northern MN this afternoon to early evening, but very dry low-levels limits much of any precip from reaching the ground and to virga. The forecast grids for that area this afternoon remain without any weather mentions for this case. A weak shortwave rotating through a deeper vertically stacked Hudson Bay Low pressure skirts through southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario tonight. This will bring a band of high-based rain showers into northeast Minnesota late this evening, through the overnight and into early Sunday morning. If you live along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead, you could see the highest rainfall totals, localized up to half an inch. Late tonight into Sunday morning, mid-level instability builds into central MN and northwest Wisconsin on the nose of an incoming low-level jet. This setup may (20-30% chance) help trigger a few non-severe isolated thunderstorms across east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin through Sunday morning. This will also be a short period of increased dewpoints early Sunday that keeps a wetting rainfall around a quarter-inch of localized rainfall possible for northwest Wisconsin. Severe weather is not expected tonight into Sunday morning. Looking ahead to next week, the Northland will remain on the cooler side of a stalled weather front located to our south. This setup will keep our temperatures near to slightly below normal going into the early part of mid-August. The weather pattern will also keep with the pattern of a weak system passing through the Upper Midwest and helping create a 10 to 30 percent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms every day or two. The severe weather threat though is expected to stay focused well to our south across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving east- southeast across northeast MN this morning. For now, it appears these will stay away from any of the terminals. Outside these, VFR conditions to prevail. Surface winds remain light and variable, generally under 10 knots. After these showers move east, conditions to remain VFR today and this evening. After 05z tonight, fog should develop at some of the terminals, and have included MVFR/IFR visibilities for KDLH, KHIB and KHYR. Have left out of KINL and KBRD for now, but it may need to be added. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Winds across western Lake Superior will remain light today and tonight around 5 to 10 knots with waves of 1 foot or less. Southwest winds increase slightly on Monday with late morning and afternoon gusts up to 15 knots, mainly along the North Shore. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning may bring occasional lightning. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Showers and a few thunderstorms moving across the area early this morning have brought scattered rainfall amounts between 0.1 to 0.5 inches, mainly along and north of the Iron Range. Once these showers move east of the area, winds will become northwest around 5 mph, with RH values dropping to between 40 and 50 percent this afternoon. Northwest Wisconsin will be slower to clear, and RH values will remain higher there. Clear skies, light winds and lingering low level moisture will make patchy fog likely. Monday conditions will be slightly drier with RH values dropping to between 35 and 45 percent, with northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph. Periodic non-severe thunderstorm chances return every 36 to 48 hours through midweek. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...LE DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...LE MARINE...LE FIRE WEATHER...LE ####018004221#### FXUS66 KHNX 091122 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 422 AM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .UPDATE... Update aviation section and added fire weather section. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Extreme Heat will continue to be the major weather concern over the weekend and early next week. Extreme Heat Warnings have been issued and extended through Monday evening. 2. Persistent hot and dry conditions will also continue to promote the potential for wildfires with cured fuels. 3. Potential for thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada crest continues for each afternoon through next week, with chances of 20 to 30% this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The hot and dry conditions will continue until Monday as the ridge over Utah stays in place. With it, the San Joaquin Valley will continue to see hot temperatures, with Sunday afternoon expected to be the peak of the heat. The Probability of Exceedance (PoE) for 105 degrees is currently between 60-75% for much of the SJV. On the more extreme end of maximum temperatures, there is a 10% PoE for 109 for the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley. Kern County, Bakersfield included, will be well above 105 degrees. The PoE for 110 in Bakersfield is 50-60%. The more extreme models are hinting at a 10% probability of exceeding 111 degrees on Sunday. As for the Mojave desert...well...it's hot out there. There's a 70% chance of reaching 110 degrees tomorrow in Ridgecrest. Good news! After Sunday that PoE for 110 degrees will begin to drop off for the Mojave Desert, as there is a 10% chance on Monday and drops off completely on Tuesday. There's also a chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada crest everyday until at least Saturday. These chances will range between 10-20%. Tuesday is looking to be the date of most change during this upcoming week. The ridge over Utah begins to shift eastward thanks to an upper-level trough beginning to push in through the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. While temperatures will still be warm, they are expected to drop to the low 100s for the San Joaquin Valley. By Thursday, we will see climatological normal temperatures. Wahoo! This is again thanks to the upper-level trough, as by Thursday it will be digging into Northern California. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with light northwest winds during the day and variable winds overnight. Convection will have a 20-30 percent chance from 21Z Sunday until 03Z Monday across the Sierra Nevada Crest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hottest temperatures with the current heat wave will be observed this afternoon, resulting in lowered minRH values around 15 to 20 percent in the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Foothills, and high Sierras where thunderstorms do not occur. Desert minRH values will be around 10 percent. The hot, dry conditions bring elevated fire concerns especially to those areas where the hottest temperatures occur, including the Mojave Desert, the lee of the Coastal Range, and the western San Joaquin Valley. Downsloping winds into this latter area due to onshore flow will also be a contributing factor. The hot conditions across central California will also raise mixing heights across the region; for the higher terrain and desert areas, heights will rise above 9000 feet, causing concern for plume-dominated fires. In addition, monsoon moisture tracking over the Sierra Nevada will bring a threat for dry lightning to occur this afternoon. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ300>317-319- 321-332-334>339. && $$ public...BB aviation/fire wx....McCoy weather.gov/hanford ####018005069#### FXUS64 KEPZ 091123 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 523 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 - Drier conditions over the next few days, with storm chances limited to western New Mexico and the high elevations. Rain chances increase again late this week as moisture returns. - Triple-digit heat continues for the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026 UL high is centered over the Four Corners, and dry air has circulated into the area from the east and northeast. PW values are under an 1" while dewpoints are mostly in the 40s. Additionally, the presence of the high has brought warming throughout the column, further reducing instability. The result has been a significant downturn for convection with only a few storms forming in the CWA this afternoon. We will pretty much remain in this pattern through Tuesday with mainly the Gila and far western lowlands having a chance for storms. Highs will continue to be a few degrees above normal with most lowlands near or just above 100. By Wednesday, we will see a fairly substantial pattern change. The high over the Four Corners will rapidly weaken with the dominant high shifting across the Southern Plains, extending across the Gulf Coast. This will open the CWA to southerly flow with a subtropical tap of moisture--a more classic monsoonal pattern. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase for the last half of the week though the NBM is playing conservative in the lowlands, but given pattern recognition there should be at least be isolated coverage in the lowlands given PW values over an inch. Given the increased moisture and the departure of the high, temperatures should come down at least a little as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 VMC through forecast period with surface winds 100-104 at 5-10 knots and skies SKC-FEW100. Some afternoon cumulus developing after 21Z, but no TS risk for local terminals today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Low fire danger over the next several days due to wetness of local forests. Isolated (20-40%) thunderstorms each afternoon for Gila NF, but much of Lincoln NF will remain dry over the next few days. Storms will pose a risk of sudden, erratic outflow winds and new lightning starts. Light winds out of the SE today and Monday, shifting to the SW Tuesday through the rest of the week. Min RH 15-25%, with moisture increasing after Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 96 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 77 54 77 / 0 10 0 20 Truth or Consequences 71 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 93 63 92 / 10 20 0 30 Deming 68 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 99 69 97 / 0 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 89 59 90 / 0 10 0 20 Mescalero 57 88 59 89 / 0 10 0 20 Timberon 55 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 61 92 63 92 / 0 10 0 20 Hillsboro 68 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 69 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 92 59 91 / 10 30 0 50 Hurley 65 96 65 95 / 10 10 0 10 Cliff 66 100 67 98 / 20 30 10 40 Mule Creek 65 95 64 93 / 30 40 20 50 Faywood 67 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 69 99 69 97 / 0 0 20 20 Hachita 69 98 69 97 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 68 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 30 Cloverdale 64 92 64 89 / 0 10 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt