####018007232#### FXUS62 KMHX 101843 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 143 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore today ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area tonight. High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of a potent cold front that will move through on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 12 PM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front Latest surface obs show a surface low over southern Michigan with its cold front moving across the Mississippi River Valley. This front has slowed a little, and is now not expected to reach ENC until late tonight. The gradient will continue to pinch ahead of this front, causing southwest winds to become increasingly more gusty this afternoon and evening. Inland, winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. Along the coast, winds will be 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Cloud cover will increase as the front approaches, but no precipitation is expected. Highs will range from the low 50s across the coastal plain to upper 50s along the coast. Tonight, CAA will take over behind the front. Although skies will be clear, breezy winds will keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent us from radiating as well as we did last night, so lows will be slightly milder in the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 12 PM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Cool, dry, and breezy The front will be offshore by tomorrow morning with high pressure building in its wake. Most of the area will spend the day under sunny skies, save for some lingering scattered low clouds along the Outer Banks. It'll feel pretty chilly tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 40s paired with breezy northwest winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12 PM Wednesday... Key Messages... - High pressure brings cool temperatures and dry conditions through late week - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday - Wind chills in the single digits to low teens possible Sunday night/Monday morning Thursday night through Friday...Temps will tank Thursday night as the high becomes centered over the region and the winds go light to calm under clear skies. Coastal plain lows are expected to drop to the mid to upper 20s with the Outer Banks in the mid to upper 30s. High pressure will slide offshore on Friday as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Temps will be slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 40s across northern zones to low to mid 50s across southern zones. No precipitation is expected with this shortwave as the better forcing is displaced to our north. However, there will be an increase in cloud cover, especially across northern zones. Friday night lows will range from the low 30s across the coastal plain to upper 30s and low 40s along the coast. Saturday through Sunday Night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Saturday will be very pleasant with sunny skies and the warmest temps of the week with highs in the mid to upper 50s area wide. The upper trough will dig across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a potent cold front sending a blast of Arctic air well into the southern states. There are still some timing differences with the FROPA, and an earlier trend would result in cooler high temps, but the current forecast is for highs to reach the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plain and mid 50s at the coast. This airmass is fairly moisture starved, but there remains a slight chance to low end chance of rain or a rain/snow mix. Most notable will be the dangerously cold low temps Sunday night/Monday morning, which are forecast to drop to the upper teens across the coastal plain and mid to upper 20s along the Outer Banks. These temps, paired with the gusty NW winds behind the front, will drop wind chills into the single digits to low teens for most of the area. Monday through Wednesday...Arctic high pressure will build in behind the front on Monday and temps may struggle to reach the 40s. Tuesday will begin our warming trend with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wed... Key Messages - VFR expected through the TAF period with a window of LLWS concerns this evening Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with sct high clouds through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front and SW wind gusts 15-25 kt. The cold front will then push through the area later tonight, but with limited available moisture, only expect some mid-level clouds to accompany the frontal passage. A few hours of LLWS will be likely this evening with strengthening low-level jet. Flow becomes NW behind the front with gusts 15-20 kt late tonight into Thu. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. && .MARINE... As of 1:15 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Southwest winds increase today ahead of a cold front with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for most waters and Gales south of Oregon Inlet Today through Thursday...Southwest winds will continue to increase through today ahead of a potent cold front and peak late tonight. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet for southwest to west winds at 20-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. SCAs are in effect for all other waters (except the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers). Seas will build to 7-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft to the north. Winds will be out of the NW by tomorrow morning and will decrease through the day with seas following suit. By late tomorrow afternoon/early evening, all waters will have sub-SCA conditions. Saturday through Monday...Better boating conditions are expected Friday and Saturday but will be short-lived as another potent cold front is set to cross the area on Sunday. The wind forecast has trended more pessimistic with this update with Gales expected to develop by Sunday evening. Conditions will improve on Monday as high pressure moves back in. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...CQD MARINE...OJC ####018004718#### FXUS64 KMAF 101844 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1244 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy to gusty northeasterly winds continue this afternoon behind a passing cold front. - Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday before a stronger cold front brings much cooler temperatures on Sunday. - Dry conditions persist through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Current observations and satellite imagery shows the cold front pushing down into the Big Bend region. Areas behind the front will continue to have breezy and gusty northeasterly winds (15-25 mph sustained, up to 35 mph gusts) this afternoon, though winds are not going to be as strong as what was seen earlier this morning. Cooler air is going to settle in across much of the region where high temperatures reach the upper 50s to mid 60s for most. Locations south of the Interstate 10 corridor are forecast to be in the 70s due to the cooler air not arriving until after daytime peak heating. Tonight, a surface high pressure system builds in from the north which will reinforce cooler air and continued clear skies across the forecast area. Low temperatures drop back into the low and upper 30s with a few spots in the Davis Mountains reaching the mid 20s. Surface winds veer southwesterly as the aforementioned surface high moves east of the region. Northwesterly flow aloft is also going to take shape, promoting warmer and continued dry conditions. High temperatures are anticipated to be back in the upper 60s to mid 70s placing highs 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning will be a couple of degrees warmer than the previous day (upper 30s to upper 40s). Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The forecast remains relatively unchanged. Northwest flow aloft persists Friday and Saturday as an upper-level ridge builds in from the west. This will keep clear skies and warmer weather for both days. Surface winds veer to the southwest retaining highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most locations Friday and Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday, a cold front sweeps through the region which will drop high temperatures below normal. There remains a large spread amongst ensemble guidance for Sunday afternoon highs. Therefore, there is uncertainty of how cold temperatures may get. LREF, GEFS, and Euro plumes are suggesting a cooler solution. This will be dependent on how strong the cold air behind the front will be, along with the extent of cloud coverage Sunday afternoon. By early next week, temperatures rebound in the 60s to 70s, thanks to westerly flow aloft and southerly to southwesterly surface winds. Both Monday and Tuesday looks to be breezy as lee troughing sets up to our west, while a surface high will be off to the east. Dry conditions persist through the extended period. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 921 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Gusty conditions will prevail through the daylight hours with NE gusts as high as 30-35kts until sunset at all TAF sites. Winds will slowly swing SE after sunset Wed and decrease to 5-10kts from the S. VFR conditions and dry weather will continue into Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 36 71 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 35 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 39 72 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 75 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 39 62 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 35 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 27 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 37 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 38 69 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 34 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...01