####018010707#### FXUS61 KBOX 101845 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 145 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Approaching low pressure allows mainly rain to overspread the region from west to east this evening with any snow confined to the highest terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. A cold front crosses the region later tonight...bringing mainly dry but windy and much colder weather Thursday into Thursday night. Wind Chills will be dropping to between 0 and 10 above Thursday night. It will still be blustery and chilly Friday with winds finally diminishing Saturday...but temperatures still remaining a bit below normal. The risk for a period of snow has decreased some Saturday night into Sunday...but this is not set in stone. Another shot of arctic air with well below normal temperatures will follow later Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages * Brief period of rain/snow late this afternoon/evening into the midnight hours * Skies clear overnight with blustery west/northwest winds developing An area of surface-low pressure passes north of southern New England tonight. This frontal wave will bring a period of rainfall to southern New England later this afternoon and into the midnight hours. Snow more likely for the higher terrain, particularly the east slopes of The Berkshires, where 1 to 2 inches of snow may fall by the time all is said and done. Other elevated areas in central MA may see a dusting of snow as well, but overall a low-impact weather event. Rain accumulations elsewhere generally around a quarter of an inch or less. As a cold front associated with the surface low pushes through the region after midnight, west/northwest winds behind the front will usher a cooler/drier air mass into the region. Skies clear from west to east with temperatures dropping to the mid to upper 20s by tomorrow morning. Sustained winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages * Wind Advisory in effect for interior high elevations and coastal areas * West/northwest wind gusts up to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night * Cold and blustery conditions will support single digit wind chill temperatures Thursday night Thursday and Thursday Night A strong low-level jet develops over southern New England tomorrow in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A west/northwest CAA regime will be in place for roughly a 24 hour period and will support a period of strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. Ensembles support an average of 35 knot winds in the PBL (roughly surface to 850 hPa) with winds peaking around 50 knots at the top of the PBL tomorrow afternoon. These values then increase to 45-60 knots tomorrow night. Bufkit soundings support 40+ knot wind gusts at coastal locations and over the higher terrain between tomorrow morning and tomorrow night. Elsewhere, wind gusts will be flirting with advisory criteria with peak gusts in the 35-40 knot range, but confidence not high enough at this time to include the other forecast zones in the advisory. If confidence increases, the rest of southern New England may be included in the advisory. In addition to the strong winds, we'll see a significant drop in temperatures from Wednesday-Thursday. High temps peak in the 30s on Thursday, followed by temps bottoming out in the teens by Friday morning. The strong west/northwest winds will support wind chill values in the single digits for much of the region on Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages... * Quite Windy & cold Thu night...Wind Chills between 0 and 10 above * Dry, but blustery and cold Fri...Highs upper 20s to the middle 30s * Mainly dry during the day Sat with highs generally in the 30s * Snow risk has decreased some Sat night-Sun...but not set in stone * Another shot of arctic air late Sun-Mon...Highs Mon only in the 20s Details... Thursday night... It will remain quite windy Thu night given a strong WNW 850 mb jet on the order of 50-60 knots. This coupled with 850T near -15C will yield excellent mixing. We expect northwest wind gusts of 35-50 mph and may need Wind Headlines well into the overnight hours. The strong winds will keep temps from completely bottoming out...but the CAA will result in lows still in the teens with downtown Boston/Providence and Cape in the 20-25 degree range. More importantly the strong winds will result in Wind Chills dropping to between 0 and 10 above and even briefly below zero in the highest terrain! Dry weather will generally prevail Thu night...but given cold strong westerly flow some remnant Lake effect moisture may result in a brief spot snow shower/flurry or two. Friday... Strong low pressure shifts north of the Canadian Maritimes on Friday. Still enough of a pressure gradient though to result in blustery conditions. While winds will not be a strong as what we are expecting tomorrow...still expect westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Highs on Friday will remain cold...generally in the upper 20s across the high terrain to the lower-middle 30s elsewhere. This Weekend... A ridge of high pressure to our south will slowly move east on Saturday. At the same time...another piece of strong shortwave energy will be dropping southeastward into the Great Lakes. The 00z models indicate the trough axis further east than guidance over the past 12-24 hours. This tends to suppress the low pressure further south in much of the guidance compared to yesterday/s runs. So the overall snow threat in the Sat night to Sun has decreased...but this is not set in stone. There are still individual ensemble members especially from the CMC guidance that track the low pressure system further north. The models seem to be struggling with amplitude/timing of northern stream energy which will have a significant impact on the track of this wave of low pressure. So while odds for accumulating snow have decreased some Sat night- Sun...still too early to rule out a trend back north. Will need another 36-48 hours to have more confidence in the eventual outcome. High temps will mainly be in the 30s this weekend with the colder day on Sunday. In fact...temperatures may be falling during the day Sunday with a gusty NW developing behind the next arctic cold front. Monday and Tuesday... Another short of arctic air impacts the region for the start of the next work week. While mainly dry weather is expected...high temps will be well below normal. Highs on Monday will likely only be in the 20s. May see a bit of a modification by Tuesday...but still expect highs only in the upper 20s to the middle 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00Z...High Confidence VFR conditions gradually deteriorate to MVFR from west to east as -RA/-SN overspreads southern New England. South/southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots. Tonight...High Confidence -RA/-SN and MVFR ceilings from roughly 00-06Z. -SN mostly confined to the elevated areas, so most likely at BAF/ORH. Minimal accumulations. A cold front pushes showers/MVFR ceilings out of the area after 06Z and is followed by gusty west/northwest winds around 15 knots with gusts approaching 25 knots by 12Z. Tomorrow...High Confidence VFR. Strong west/northwest winds from 15 to 25 knots with some gusts up to 40 knots possible. Strongest winds expected near the coast, Cape, Islands, and high terrain. Tomorrow Night...High COnfidence VFR. Gusty west/northwest winds continue with sustained 15 to 25 and gusts up to 40 knots. Strong wind should be on the downswing by Friday morning, but may remain in the 20-30 knot range through Friday afternoon. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Sunday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SN. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Tomorrow Night ...High confidence. Gale warning today for strong southwest LLJ ahead of cold front. SW wind gusts up to 35 knots. Cold front crosses the region later tonight followed by excellent mixing in the CAA Thu. Gale force wind gusts re-develop...but this time from a westerly direction. Gales posted for all waters. Outlook /Friday through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, slight chance of rain. Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for MAZ002-004-007>009-014>016-019>024-026. RI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for RIZ004>008. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ230- 236. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/RM NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/RM MARINE...Loconto/RM