####018003390#### FXUS65 KLKN 170713 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1213 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Monday * Warming trend Monday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of high pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States today. Southerly flow should keep monsoonal moisture streaming northward into most of Eastern Nevada again today, resulting in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. The aforementioned anticyclone aloft will gradually retrograde westward Monday through Saturday. As a result, the flow should shift from southerly to southwesterly, pushing monsoonal moisture eastward. There is an elevated risk of wildfires in Humboldt County Monday afternoon into Monday evening due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 11 percent. A warming trend is expected Monday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. High temperatures will remain above seasonal values Friday and Saturday. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 90 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Thursday, August 20th, 2026: Tonopah - 97% West Wendover - 97% Elko - 96% Winnemucca - 96% Battle Mountain - 96% Carlin - 96% Eureka - 96% Wells - 96% Spring Creek - 95% Ely - 95% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. NBM grids had no accounting for thunderstorms in northeastern NV Monday afternoon in either the Pops or Wx grids so SST and SerpISC were used to add thunder to grids between 18Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Low forecast confidence in elevated fire weather conditions in Humboldt County Monday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of KEKO and KENV this afternoon into this evening. Direct thunderstorm impact cannot be ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are possible in most of Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Humboldt County Monday due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 11 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87 ####018006935#### FXUS65 KPUB 170713 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 113 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier today and Tuesday with warming temperatures. A few thunderstorms are possible on today mainly along the Raton Mesa. - A cold front arrives by Wednesday morning with a round of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms along with elevated flash flood potential. - An upper high strengthens overhead for late in the week and through the weekend with daily thunderstorm chances across the higher terrain and adjacent Plains, and hot temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Currently...radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms spread across the Plains early this morning. Most are stretched from a Cripple Creek to Kim line, and slowly tracking east. A few stronger cells could produce small hail and very heavy rainfall along with lightning. Most CAM guidance has this activity slowly shifting eastward and dissipating by daybreak. Temperatures are mild, with upper 50s to mid 60s across the Plains. Elevated dewpoints should help keep temperatures from falling by more than a degree or two through morning. Today and tonight...the upper level high that has been sitting over the southeast U.S. will build westward into Texas, and expand northward over the next 24 hours. This will bring slightly drier air to the region, and help limit shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. PWAT values will fall to less than 1 inch, and CAPE values will only be around 800 j/kg with higher values out near the Kansas border. Flow remains southerly in the low levels, which will help keep dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon. As the upper level ridge builds northward, it should help suppress most convection today. The exception looks like the southern Sangre de Cristo Range, east along the Raton Mesa. CAM guidance develops a cluster of thunderstorms over this area, and tracks it east along the New Mexico border this afternoon and early evening. Given the instability and moisture parameters, a couple could become strong, with hail to 3/4 of an inch and 55 mph winds along with heavy rainfall. Further north along the Eastern Mountains, shower and thunderstorm activity looks very isolated. At this time, did not issue a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar given the scarcity of expected thunderstorm coverage. But given recent heavy rains and flooding issues, if an isolated cell happens to move over the scar, flash flooding could occur. Confidence at this time is less than 20 percent that this would happen. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to shift south and east into New Mexico by early evening, leaving southern Colorado dry through the overnight hours. Temperatures will warm slightly this afternoon, with mid 80s to near 90 degrees for the Plains, and 80s for the San Luis Valley. Overnight lows will remain the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended period, with NBM guidance starting to catch on to warmer conditions by late in the week into the weekend. Tuesday...upper level ridging continues ot build across southern Colorado with warming temperatures and generally dry conditions across the region. Temperatures will warm back through the 90s with a few lower 100s possible near the Kansas border. PWAT values continue to dry out, and will help limit shower and thunderstorm activity. A couple of thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon and evening from the Central Mountains, southeast into teh Palmer Divide region as a weak wave tracks across the area. Wednesday...a cold front arrives by Wednesday morning turning low level flow easterly by mid to late morning. Moisture returns as well with dewpoints reaching back into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Plains. Shear also increases, with 0-6km shear values in excess of 30 kts by the afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon, initially over the higher terrain, then spreading east into the Plains. As storms move into the Plains, a few could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible, along with Flash Flooding on area burn scars. Temperatures will be cooler, with 80s and lower 90s across the Plains. Thursday through Sunday..models all in agreement with the upper high strengthening over the Great Basin, shifting east across Colorado late in the week and over the weekend. Multiple waves embedded under the ridge will lift northward during this period, with daily showers and thunderstorms possible. Most thunderstorm activity will remain tied to the terrain, with a few slipping east into the I-25 corridor during the evening before dissipating. Extended NBM guidance is starting to catch up with deterministic guidance on high temperatures Friday through Sunday. Given the strength of the upper high, upper 90s to lower 100s are not out of the question, especially for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Rain showers and thunderstorms at the start of this TAF period are expected to end early, with dry conditions prevailing through most of the night and through tomorrow. With that said, there is a possibility of isolated thunderstorms impacting either TAF site again tomorrow afternoon, though confidence in coverage is less than the past few days. Regardless though, brief periods of heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be possible with any thunderstorm that impacts the TAF sites. Otherwise, pockets of mid to high level clouds will persist through tomorrow, with relatively light winds, around and less than 10 knots, expected outside of any storms. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period. Otherwise, pockets of mid to high level clouds and dry conditions are anticipated. With that said, an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out tomorrow, though confidence remains very low, less than 10%, on this. IF a thunderstorm were to impact the TAF site, brief periods of heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be possible. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...SIMCOE ####018004867#### FXUS63 KEAX 170714 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 214 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. There is considerable uncertainty about the timing and location of this activity. - Not as hot and less humid this week, with the exception of Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows that the upper ridge has been mostly suppressed to our south with quasi-zonal flow or subtle northwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, high pressure is building southward and the combination of the suppressed upper-level ridging and building surface high pressure will lead to more seasonal temperatures in the mid-80s and noticeably less humid conditions. Dewpoints today should be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid 60s vs the mid 70s we've seen the last few days. The cooler air may also lead to some river valley fog this morning, especially across northwestern MO/ northeastern KS where the high pressure center will be nearly overhead by 12Z this morning. That surface high shifts to the east of the area tonight, shifting winds back to the south and leading some moisture streaming back north into the area. There is decent agreement amongst the models in developing a convective system Monday night to the northwest of the area, most likely in northwestern Nebraska into western South Dakota. This system tracks southeast early Tuesday morning and may begin to affect northwestern Missouri late morning or into the afternoon. This actually introduces a fair amount of uncertainty with the forecast because of its implications on convection later in the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours. Several scenarios appear possible with this setup. One is that the MCS that develops Monday night is the main severe weather threat for us Tuesday afternoon and evening. This would require a later arrival into the forecast area, allowing for greater destabilization. This is closer to what the NAM shows. Another scenario is that the MCS weakens as it moves into NW/ northern MO but leaves a boundary that becomes the focus later in the day, most likely further to the south and possibly draped across the middle of forecast area. This scenario seems to be favored by the GFS and the Canadian. Regardless, based on the broader- scale pattern, with increasing flow aloft poleward, shear will be favorable for organized storms with potentially 40-50+ kts of deep-layer shear Tuesday afternoon and evening. This is coincident with steep mid- level lapse rates. At this time, all severe hazards appear possible, including a small potential for tornadoes. As is so often the case with these setups, we will need to see how the earlier activity evolves and where any resulting boundaries reside to better define a more probable risk area. For the remainder of the forecast, temperatures look near to slightly below normal through late in the week, with a warming trend for the weekend and into next week. Northwest flow will become the predominate pattern again through the middle of the country, with the upper ridge building over the western third of the country. With this pattern, we'll need to watch for southeastward moving convective systems that often travel further southeast than forecast. So for now, the forecast is mainly dry but that could change if anything upstream of the area persists longer or is stronger than forecasts. Eventually that ridge shifts eastward with the axis moving from the Great Basin to the spine of the Rockies. The increasing heights and thicknesses should lead to warmer conditions late in the week and beyond this forecast. That should tend to shift rain chances north and northeast of the forecast area as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR conds will begin the TAF pd with few-sct high clouds. However, fog is expected to build into the TAF site (except MKC) btn 08Z-10Z...vis is fcst to be reduced to 4SM-5SM at MCI and IXD and STJ with a pd of ocnl 1/4SM vis at STJ btn 09Z-13Z. Fog is expected to burn off by 14Z with VFR conds prevail with sct clouds around 5kft and bkn high clouds expected thru 23Z-00Z. Aft 23Z-00Z...just a few-high clouds are fcst. Winds thru the pd will be lgt out of the north before becmg lgt and vrb late in the TAF pd. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...73