####018009009#### FXUS62 KGSP 061810 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 110 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure moves in through Sunday before precipitation chances increase late Sunday night and Monday. Dry conditions return by midweek with normal temperatures. A cold front should arrive late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Saturday... Key Message 1: Below highs return as light rain chances skirt the southeastern fringe of the forecast area through late this afternoon while cloud cover gradually decreases from west to east. Weak upper troughing will track over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia late this afternoon into early this evening. At the sfc, dry high pressure will gradually build in from the west- southwest. This will allow cloud cover to gradually decrease from west to east as well as keep the bulk of rain shunted south and east of the forecast area. However, light rain and/or drizzle may still develop through the mid-afternoon hours across the southern SC Upstate and portions of northeast Georgia south of I-85. NBM PoPs appear to handle this potential well with only chance PoPs in place across these zones. With cloud cover in no real hurry to erode today, highs will end up ~5-10 degrees below normal. Temps this afternoon will only reach into the mid 40s to mid 50s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Higher elevations will see highs range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Key Message 2: Cold night ahead despite increasing cloud cover and the return of patchy dense fog east of the mountains. Dry high pressure will continue building into the region while the upper trough pushes east of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia by late this evening. This will allow calm winds to develop overnight. Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening into tonight, especially east of the mountains. Despite the cloud cover, it will be a cold night with temps falling near to below freezing across the entire forecast area. Another round of dense fog will develop tonight into daybreak Monday thanks to the calm winds and lingering low-level moisture. Freezing fog looks to develop across the NC foothills and the NC Piedmont (north of I-85) overnight into early Sunday morning as these are the areas that are most likely to see dense fog overlap with freezing temperatures. Key Message 3: Fog lifts by mid-morning Sunday with dry and warmer (but still below normal) conditions expected as cloud cover sticks around. Dense fog will linger through the early morning hours on Sunday before gradually lifting by mid-morning. Freezing fog across the NC foothills and the NC Piedmont (north of I-85) will no longer be a concern once temps rise above freezing. The sfc high will be overhead the Carolinas on Sunday allowing drier and warmer conditions to develop. However, highs will still end up ~4-7 degrees below normal thanks to cloud cover sticking around. Temps Sunday afternoon will reach into the upper 40s to mid 50s east of the mountains and across the mountain valleys. Higher elevations will see highs range from the lower to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: 1) Light snow possible across portions of the mountains Sunday night into Monday, with cold rain elsewhere. 2) Dry conditions return Tuesday with below normal temperatures. As of 1205 PM EST Saturday: West of the CWA, a shortwave makes a run for the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance for precipitation. Guidance shows colder air to the north working its way down into the southeast from a weak surface high. Guidance is divided on precip except for the GFS, which paints a wider swath of precip. One factor limiting this system is forcing. There isn't much across the area and even the better DPVA is further south. Without the forcing component, rain chances look to be lower. Additionally, colder air looks to arrive in the mountains in time for the shortwave to come through. However, should the shortwave slow down, this could increase the probability of some snow, mainly across the mountains. Currently, there is about a 70-80% chance that the highest elevations in the mountains could see at least 0.01 inch of snow. There is also about a 20-30% chance for a few isolated areas at the higher spots to see 2 inches of snow or more. Timing for this is late Sunday night into Monday, but this is still a developing system and things will change. Outside the mountains, the colder air doesn't look to arrive in time for the shortwave to cross, keeping temps mostly above freezing and precip type as mainly rain. There could be a brief mix of snow outside the mountains, especially in the NC Piedmont IF the cold air makes it in time AND the wet bulb cools to near/at freezing. Cannot rule it out, but accumulations are not expected at this time outside the mountains. Confidence in this system remains medium that the mountains could see 0.01-2 inches of snow, which is again highly dependent on the timing of the colder air and shortwave. Will continue to monitor. After the colder air mass arrives, a weak surface high sets up, keeping the CWA dry on Tuesday. Due to anticipated NE surface winds, temperatures look to dip well below normal Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages 1) Quiet through mid-week with a warming trend back to normal temperatures. 2) Breezy Wednesday, especially across the mountains. 3) A potential cold front late Thursday or Friday could bring cooler temps and another chance of precipitation. As of 1210 PM EST Saturday: From Tuesday night through at least Thursday, the weather remains quieter. By midweek, a strong area of low pressure churns across the Great Lakes region, bringing a tight pressure gradient southward toward the region. A brief increase of PoP chances (15-30%) over the mountains Wednesday night. Additionally, guidance has wind speeds increasing Wednesday into Wednesday night. A this time, there is about a 30-40% chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph at the higher elevations of the mountains. This will likely change depending on how far south the low dips. If it drops further south, the winds are likely to increase. Toward the Thursday/Friday timeframe, there is a continued hint in guidance of another potential cold front with precipitation chances increasing. Current guidance brings this front in much drier than previous runs and signals at much colder temperatures. So far, guidance is trending more toward a drier front with reduced precip chances. Again, it's too far out on the horizon to gather much of the details. As for temperatures, expect daily highs to be near normal from mid-week onward. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry conditions are expected across the terminals through the 18Z TAF period. Conditions will continue to gradually improve throughout this afternoon, with VFR returning by mid to late afternoon. However, KCLT may see restrictions linger a bit longer, lifting by early this evening. VFR conditions will not last long before low cigs and dense fog return late this evening into early Sunday morning, mainly east of the mountains. However, KAVL could see some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys develop around daybreak Sunday. CIGs and vsbys east of the mountains should drop back down to LIFR to VLIFR overnight, lingering through ~14-16Z Sunday. Opted to hold off on VLIFR restrictions for now to see if guidance remains consistent regrading this potential. Freezing fog will be a concern at KHKY as temps will fall below freezing from ~10Z-14Z so have a TEMPO to account for FZFG. Conditions will once again be slow to improve throughout Sunday so leaned more on the pessimistic side of guidance. Wind direction will be NW at KAVL and WSW/SW east of the mountains the rest of today. Winds will go calm this evening into daybreak Sunday. Winds at KAVL will pick up out of the SE Sunday morning while winds east of the mountains pick up out of the E late Sunday morning. Winds east of the mountains will gradually turn more SE Sunday afternoon. Outlook: A storm system will bring precip and restrictions Sunday night into Monday. Dry high pressure is expected to spread back over the area Tuesday into Wednesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AR ####018004593#### FXUS64 KJAN 061812 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1212 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog possible this morning. - Warmer temperatures today with rain ending across the southeast half of the area. - The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Through tonight: The persistent cloud cover leading to much cooler than normal temperatures along with very light rain and light drizzle will finally come to an end today. Local radars still showed light returns across our CWA as a moist southwest flow aloft continued across our region. Patchy dense fog will also be possible along with the very light rain and light drizzle this morning. Latest surface analysis had a 1018mg high centered just west of our CWA that will track east today and result in a light return flow this afternoon. In addition the 140kt jet streak that has been over our region will shift to the southeast. Together these features are expected to shift the moist feed contributing to the light precipitation that has been mostly over the southeast half of our CWA, to the southeast which will bring and end to our rain chances this afternoon. As the rain ends, cloud cover will thin from the northwest as well. This will allow for the sun to break through and combine with the return flow to result in afternoon highs more than 15 degrees warmer than the last couple of days. Afternoon highs will still top out cooler than normal and in the 50s at most locations. Temperatures tonight will also be warmer. No rain is expected but models suggest the extent of the dense fog development will be greater by sunrise Sunday. /22/ Sunday through next week: The overall pattern will continue to feature a general ridge pattern over the western US and a trough in the east. Locally, this will mean mostly northwesterly flow and reinforcing cool intrusions. Along with this, the troughy nature of the pattern suggests some opportunity for periods of precipitation. The first of which could arrive in the later part of Sunday, featuring a cool or cold rain with limited hazards likely. Following the first wave and front Sunday into Monday, the next round of showers and reinforcing cold front looks likely towards the end of next week when a more robust shortwave moves through the longwave trough. Uncertainty at the 7 day range with an active jet stream suggests there could be shifts in timing or intensity of this activity, but there does appear to be an increased chance for thunder compared to recent activity that has occurred with very limited thermodynamic instability. Some longer term guidance suggest dewpoints could rise into the 60s F ahead of that front which would be probable to support some convective activity were that to be the case. Otherwise, temperatures this week will generally be near to slightly below normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s F and lows in the middle 30s to 40s F most days with a few opportunities for a freeze on a few of the chillier nights. For now, the coldest night appears likely to be Monday night when most areas see temperatures near freezing with northernmost areas dipping into the middle 20s F. /86/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Clouds have thinned a bit resulting in mostly VFR conditions for most central and northern TAF sites with FEW/SCT low clouds. Intermittent periods of slight thickening to BKN has and will continue to result in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions before ceilings lower more consistently to MVFR/IFR after 00Z. Lowered VSBY to IFR/LIFR with areas of fog are expected between 09Z and 16Z before dissipating. Winds will be light, under 7 kts, and generally out of the south. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 42 61 42 53 / 0 40 30 0 Meridian 38 60 41 53 / 0 20 40 0 Vicksburg 43 60 39 52 / 0 40 20 0 Hattiesburg 43 66 46 58 / 10 30 50 0 Natchez 44 66 41 54 / 0 40 30 0 Greenville 40 55 38 47 / 0 20 10 0 Greenwood 40 58 38 50 / 0 20 20 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/LP/LP ####018005528#### FXUS61 KBUF 061813 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 113 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will induce a weak lake response off the lakes today, with some minor accumulations. A low pressure system will then bring widespread light accumulating snows Sunday into Sunday evening. High pressure will build east Monday, with dry weather expected across the Lower Lakes through Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will sweep across the Lower Lakes this afternoon into this evening. Given marginal cooling aloft ( H850 T's -7C to -9C) and the lack deep moisture extending through the DGZ we will likely only see a limited lake response this afternoon. As the front pushes through winds will veer from SW to W and any lake response will then become focused east of both lakes by this evening. Snowfall amounts off Lake Erie will not be all that much with an 1" or less northeast of the lake. A bit more 'might' be found across the higher terrain (1-3") east of the lake when all is said and done. Off Lake Ontario...westerly flow across the long axis of the lake just might help add a few more inches but not much more. Total accumulations of 2-4" will be possible with a focus on the higher end of this number across the Tug Hill. Tonight...lake snows will continue to be limited off both lakes as BUFKIT profiles show little in the way of moisture extending into the DGZ. Otherwise...attention turns to a weak low approaching the Lower Lakes which will bring some light accumulating snows Sunday into Sunday evening. Again, not a significant event by any means but we might see a general widespread snowfall of 1-3", with up to 4" in spots. High pressure will begin to build in from the west Sunday night with drier weather taking hold as we move into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A very cold period is on tap for Monday - Monday night with surface ridging passing through. A cold day Monday (highs only in the teens to lower 20s) will promote a cold evening as temperatures nose dive down into the single digits (and well below zero east of Lake Ontario). As the surface high advances eastward through the night a return flow will allow for some moderation in temperature from west to east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An active northern branch of the jet stream this period with a series of shortwave troughs progressively deepening a long wave trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will maintain precipitation chances (mainly snow) each day through this period. A surface low Wednesday will pass just to our west and north, with a strong LLJ of 60 knots and southerly flow warming the boundary layer sufficiently for plain rain Wednesday for the lower elevations before a cold front passes through Wednesday night with gusty winds and a return to snow. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front nearing the Lower lakes will bring a mixture of VFR to MVFR cigs, and at times lower vsbys this afternoon. That said...there may be some IFR at KBUF/KART within the weak lake induced snows northeast of the lakes this afternoon. Winds will veer from SW to W by this evening which will push any lake snows south of KBUF and KART. Additionally...winds will gust at times to 25 knots as the cold front nears then pushes through the region by this evening. Tonight...weak lake induced snows east of the lakes will continue to produce lower cigs and vsbys, especially across the higher terrain. Elsewhere...expect mainly VFR conditions at area terminals. Outlook... Sunday...Widespread light snow with IFR/MVFR conditions. Monday...Lingering lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with localized MVFR possible. Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow showers. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers, breezy. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous snow showers. && .MARINE... A cold front will approach the lakes this afternoon bring a brief period of Small Craft conditions to the lakes. Winds will subside this evening and tonight but will then gradually strengthen again on Sunday. A weak low passing through the Lower Lakes Sunday will 'likely' once again produce low end Small Craft conditions on the lakes through Sunday evening. High pressure builds east late Sunday night into Monday across the lakes, with lighter winds and diminishing wave action. Looking a bit further out two shortwave troughs will pass over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, with a stronger and lower LLJ Wednesday. Southwest flow may reach gale force on the Lower Great Lakes, especially Lake Erie...with Wednesday the better time period for these stronger winds. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ042- 045. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...DT LONG TERM...DT AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR/DT