####018006457#### FXUS65 KTFX 190557 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1155 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... A re-enforcing cold front will advance south across the Northern Rockies late tonight and through the morning hours on Friday, bringing another day of well below normal temperatures to Southwest through North Central Montana. In addition to the cool conditions, light snow or flurries are possible on Friday; however, little to no accumulations are expected. Temperatures warm somewhat on Saturday while remaining below normal, with return to near normal temperatures expected by Sunday. && .UPDATE... Minimal amendments were made to the forecast this evening as the latest forecast describes the situation well. Cooler overnight temperatures continue to be expected with the advancement of a southward propagating cold front. Slight chance of light snow showers also remain during the late evening into the overnight period, mainly across the Rocky Mountain Front and portions of Southwest Montana; however, little to no accumulation from these showers are expected. - Pierce && .AVIATION... 1155 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (19/06Z TAF Period) VFR conditions will prevail over the CWA through the period. A few isolated showers are diminishing over the Rocky Mountain Front currently. Other than some passing clouds, no significant aviation impacts are expected at this time. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024/ Rest of today through tonight...Isolated to scattered snow showers have develop this afternoon over the plains of Central and North Central Montana where earlier clearing allowed surface temperatures to warm sufficiently so that convective temperatures were reached. Additionally, snow showers were also present along the Continental Divide, with additional development expected further south and east across the Central and Southwest Montana mountains through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. While snow accumulations will be minimal across most locations given the brevity of the showers, brief periods of reduced visibility to below 1 mile are possible beneath the strongest showers. Where snow showers are more persistent over the higher terrain of the Continental Divide, mainly north of the MT Hwy 200 corridor and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, snowfall accumulations of 1-3" will be possible through early this evening. While light snow may linger through the overnight hours tonight across portions of Southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide, most locations will see decreasing chances for snow through the evening hours with the loss of heating. Partial clearing over portions of the plains of Central and North Central Montana during the late evening/early morning (Saturday) hours ahead of southward advancing cold front will allow temperatures to cool into the single digits to low teens above zero by Friday morning, with the teens to 20s expected across most valley locations in Southwest and Central Montana. Friday through Friday night...North to northwest flow aloft will prevail over the Northern Rockies through the period as a broad longwave trough, which was draped over most of the CONUS and Canada with an associated closed low over South Central Canada, slowly lifts northeast to over Eastern Canada through Saturday morning. At the surface, a re-enforcing cold front will back in from the north to northeast late tonight through Friday morning as a strong surface high (~1040mb) slides southeast along the Canadian Rockies (Friday morning) to Northeast Montana (Saturday morning). This cold front will bring additional chances for light snow/flurries to areas predominately along and north of the US Hwy 12 corridor on Friday, with widespread low level cloudiness expected over the plains of Central and North Central Montana. These low clouds combined with cold air advecting in across the Northern Rockies will help to keep temperatures in the mid-20s to mid-30s across most plains locations on Friday, with the upper 30s to low 40s expected in the valleys of Southwest and Central Montana. The aforementioned low level clouds will slowly dissipate through Friday evening/night as the low level flow veers to the southeast and south. These clearing skies and light surface winds will allow temperatures to fall into the single digits to teens above zero, with a 20% chance that temperatures fall below zero in the West Yellowstone Area through Saturday morning. - Moldan Saturday through next Thursday... Weak high pressure ridging is forecast to develop over the western United States for much of this period Saturday through Monday, warming temperatures to near seasonal averages. However, a low pressure trough off the Pacific coast of North America is also forecast to eject a shortwave trough over Montana Sunday into Monday, bringing at least a chance of precipitation to much of the area. Right now, though, probabilistic guidance is giving less than a 20 percent chance of 4 inches of snow accumulation in the mountains through this period. Forecast models then indicate that the high pressure ridge will start to amplify Tuesday into Wednesday, which should help warm temperatures to around 10 degrees above normal through mid-week. Mostly dry conditions are also expected on Tuesday, but the low pressure trough is forecast to deepen off the Pacific coast Wednesday into Thursday. This would shift the flow aloft more southwesterly and unsettled, for an increasing chance of showers. - Coulston && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 17 35 15 48 / 20 10 10 10 CTB 16 33 17 44 / 10 10 10 0 HLN 23 41 21 54 / 20 10 0 0 BZN 20 42 15 51 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 5 41 4 52 / 20 10 10 0 DLN 19 40 18 53 / 20 10 0 0 HVR 20 38 18 49 / 20 20 10 0 LWT 13 31 15 44 / 20 20 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018011834#### FXUS65 KABQ 190558 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A backdoor cold front across the eastern plains of NM is making for cooler temperatures and breezy conditions this afternoon, while central and western NM remain above normal. The cold front will briefly move into the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning, but a stronger surge will come early Saturday morning. Gusty east canyon winds are forecast in the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning, with stronger winds Saturday morning. Saturday will be the coolest day across the eastern plains when daytime temperatures are forecast to be 20-25 degrees below normal. A disturbance may bring a round of rain with isolated thunder to north central and eastern NM late Friday night through Saturday. Expect a renewed warmup thereafter, but another back door cold front will impact eastern NM going into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Cirrus is drifting over the western and central parts of the state in advance of a weak upstream upr level disturbance. Meanwhile, sfc analysis depicts a frontal boundary draped over the eastern plains with east-northeast gusty winds in its wake. This boundary will be pushing westward this evening and overnight and will be responsible for modest gap winds within the RGV, including both the ABQ and SAF metro areas. Extensive stratus will develop across eastern NM, with a risk for patchy fog. The latest HREF indicates a 30 pct chance of fog from northern Lincoln to the southern end of the Sangres, with higher probabilities of 30-80 percent along the northern extend of the Sangres eastward into the Johnson and Bartlett Mesas. Given the conditional nature and spotty coverage area, did not introduce into the grids, but something to closely monitor. CAA will allow for low temperatures to be five degrees below normal in the eastern plains but an above normal, and slightly warmer, regime is expected in the western and central zones due to cloud cover. Gap winds weaken by mid/late Friday morning as the surface boundary retreats back into the central highlands. Stratus will gradually go on a brief vacation from west to east, with high temps still five or so degrees below normal across the far east. Meanwhile, western and central NM should experience relatively quiet weather conditions, favoring gusty afternoon winds as slightly stronger winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface during peak heating. Fri night suggests the reinforcing shot of easterly winds will invade the ern plains with slightly stronger gap winds developing within the RGV, with a more westward push of this boundary towards the Cont. Divide. This may set the stage for light QPF on Saturday (discussed below). Isentropic upglide will favor light pcpn across the eastern plains. Models also suggest enough instability will be around to support a few stray thunderstorms, but the most favored locations seems to be in question (ern plains vs along the central mtn chain - the latter option making the most sense). DPorter && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 East canyon/gap winds will continue into the middle/lower RGV and Upper Tularosa Valley Saturday morning, but speeds are forecast to remain below advisory criteria. A weak short wave trough will move over Saturday, bringing weak isentropic upglide to the eastern plains, but with limited moisture above the frontal layer. The best chances for precipitation Saturday will be in the morning hours near the TX border across the east central and southeast plains where a rumble of thunder or two are possible. Patchy fog is likely Saturday morning as well, especially in the usual easterly upslope flow areas of the eastern highlands. The front is modeled by the most recent NAM to make it west to near the Continental Divide Saturday, which would bring cooler temperature for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros than what is currently forecast. However, the latest NAM is notably more bullish on the westward progress of the front relative to the rest of the model suite. Saturday will be the coolest day overall this forecast cycle, with highs across the eastern plains forecast to be 20-25 degrees below normal. Patchy fog may redevelop Saturday night into Sunday morning across portions of eastern NM, but low forecast confidence at this time. The front will hold on across eastern NM Sunday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, with temperatures warming some but still forecast below normal. A more significant warmup is forecast Mon/Tue with weak ridging and rising pressure heights bringing above normal temperatures areawide. However, another backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern plains Tuesday, brining cooler temperatures going into Wednesday. An upper level trough/low will approach Wednesday and may move over as early as Thursday, bringing stronger winds and the potential for thunderstorms across the east central and southeast plains. 'Tis the season! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Backdoor cold front now pushing westward into the Rio Grande Valley. Patchy low clouds in eastern NM will increase in areal coverage overnight as a result of easterly upslope flow. Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds will develop tonight mainly over northeast and east central areas. Low clouds will likely work their way between the Sandia and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains, impacting KSAF with low clouds at times Friday morning. The low clouds will gradually dissipate over central and eastern NM during the early afternoon Friday, but the low level moisture will hang around with another round of low clouds along the east slopes of the central mountain chain Friday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to develop for the eastern plains Friday night into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible on Friday afternoon across portions of the lower RGV due to a combination of gusty afternoon winds, low humidities and a very unstable air mass. Coverage and duration are not sufficient to support the issuance of any headlines, but something that should be monitored closely as a fire, especially within the bosque, may have the ability to rapidly grow. Otherwise, no critical fire weather conditions are anticipated through the upcoming weekend. In fact, humidity relief is likely in areas along/east of the central mountain chain as a cooler and more moist boundary will remain situated over region, with outstanding RH recoveries during the overnight hours. One thing to keep in mind is the risk for thunderstorms along the moisture transition zone, which may result in some lightning-induced ignitions. This boundary is scrubbed out for early next week, and as a result, a return to seasonal humidities are expected across the east. Winds may be strong enough over the northeast to offer some critical fire weather conditions. DPorter && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 38 74 38 74 / 0 0 5 10 Cuba............................ 43 74 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 37 76 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 40 72 38 70 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 38 77 38 74 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 42 76 38 72 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 50 79 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 Datil........................... 45 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 43 79 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 37 68 36 66 / 0 0 5 20 Los Alamos...................... 44 71 47 63 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 39 72 42 57 / 0 0 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 67 46 61 / 0 0 20 30 Red River....................... 34 64 33 58 / 0 10 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 29 64 29 56 / 0 5 30 40 Taos............................ 36 73 38 66 / 0 0 10 20 Mora............................ 34 72 37 54 / 0 0 30 30 Espanola........................ 45 79 46 69 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 44 73 47 63 / 0 0 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 77 46 64 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 80 52 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 82 51 69 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 85 50 72 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 82 52 70 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 48 85 49 75 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 48 82 49 71 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 48 85 49 74 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 48 83 51 72 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 48 85 49 74 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 48 77 50 65 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 48 82 50 72 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 52 88 53 79 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 72 46 59 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 44 76 47 60 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 40 77 43 60 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 79 39 61 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 35 73 38 52 / 0 0 10 20 Mountainair..................... 41 77 44 61 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 42 77 43 62 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 52 81 49 69 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 46 74 45 61 / 0 0 5 20 Capulin......................... 31 64 31 45 / 0 10 60 20 Raton........................... 32 71 35 52 / 0 5 40 20 Springer........................ 35 71 37 50 / 0 0 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 35 69 39 49 / 0 0 30 30 Clayton......................... 35 64 35 46 / 0 0 50 30 Roy............................. 35 67 37 46 / 0 0 50 30 Conchas......................... 40 75 41 50 / 0 0 50 50 Santa Rosa...................... 39 72 41 49 / 0 0 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 38 68 39 50 / 0 0 60 50 Clovis.......................... 41 64 42 50 / 0 0 60 60 Portales........................ 41 67 42 51 / 0 0 60 60 Fort Sumner..................... 41 72 44 52 / 0 0 40 40 Roswell......................... 49 75 52 59 / 0 0 30 50 Picacho......................... 44 74 46 60 / 0 0 10 40 Elk............................. 43 79 44 65 / 0 0 5 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...33 ####018004514#### FXUS61 KILN 190558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 158 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into Friday. High pressure then moves in for the weekend, bringing below normal temperatures and the chance for frost early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain slightly below normal into the following work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A decaying MCS will work into the region overnight. It will be on a weakening trend, however cannot rule out some strong to severe storms primarily around the Tri-State region. Precipitation occurring across the region does appear more certain however and therefore increased precipitation chances. Went a little cooler than the blend for temperatures overnight with temperatures already dropping off quite a bit in portions of the region. Winds will start to pick up as the front starts to work into the region late in the near term. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... By Friday morning, the low pressure system will have moved off to the northeast and rain will be tapering to an end across the CWA. Quite a tight pressure gradient will be in place in the cold air advection regime, so expecting some gusty northwesterly winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts to 25-30 MPH, particularly in west central Ohio. Winds decrease as the day wears on. Surface high pressure nudges in from the northern Great Plains and some residual low level moisture remains, keeping partly cloudy skies in place. High temperatures reach the upper 50s in west central Ohio and upper 60s along the Ohio River/ Tri-State region. Friday night remains dry and cooler, with lows in the mid 40s area wide as the high pressure continues to nudge into the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift southeast across the region Saturday through Monday. This will lead to dry but seasonably cool conditions. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s to lower 60s, moderating a bit by Monday to highs in low to mid 60s. Some frost will be possible both Saturday night and Sunday night as overnight lows drop into the 30s. In northwest flow aloft, an upper level disturbance will move southeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. An associated surface low will move across the southern Great Lakes Tuesday night with a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this, showers will become likely Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Instability looks to be fairly limited, so only expect some lower chances for embedded thunderstorms. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s. High pressure and a drier airmass will settle into the area Wednesday into Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Thursday mostly in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will ride northeast along an eastward advancing cold front through 12Z. Showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue to decrease in intensity along with areal coverage as they move east during this period. MVFR conditions, local IFR visibilities are possible in thunderstorms. Overall ceilings will lower into the MVFR category with IFR ceilings arriving after frontal passage. From 12Z to 18Z, the cold front will advance east/southeast through the remainder of the region. Precipitation will come to an end with frontal passage with a period of IFR ceilings forecast. Winds will become gusty from the northwest between 15 and 25 knots. Ceilings will gradually lift back into the MVFR category before clearing out from west to east during the afternoon hours. This will leave just some high level cirrus in place. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, locally gusty northwest winds will eventually subside. Some mid and high level clouds are possible overnight despite surface high pressure building into the middle Ohio Valley. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions along with thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hickman