####018006794#### FXUS62 KTBW 080055 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 755 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk of Severe Storms with damaging winds and tornadoes possible this evening through Monday morning. - Hazardous marine conditions late Monday into Tuesday. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Line of thunderstorms has setup around the Interstate 4 corridor out into the eastern gulf this evening with a few of the storms becoming rather strong and producing wind gusts up to 40 mph. Have also seen a couple of couplets over the coastal waters in the cells out ahead of the main line and this will remain a possibility for the next few hours with a waterspout or two possible. This convection will continue to move across central and southwest Florida early tonight, but is expected to gradually weaken as it moves further south toward southwest Florida later this evening and overnight. Behind this convection more showers are expected late tonight into Monday morning ahead of the actual cold front which will be moving south through the area during Monday reaching the Tampa Bay and Interstate 4 corridor around midday and exiting southwest FLorida and the southern interior by late afternoon. Forecast has been tweaked to adjust the timing and location of the convection overnight, otherwise remainder of forecast looks good. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 755 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the TAF sites this evening, but are expected to weaken as they move into southwest Florida around midnight. IFR/brief LIFR conditions will be possible with the thunderstorms early tonight, with more MVFR/IFR ceilings later tonight into Monday morning. Winds are rather variable across the region as a warm front sits just south of Tampa Bay with south to southwest winds from around SRQ southward with north to northeast winds around Tampa Bay. The thunderstorms are producing wind gusts up to around 30 knots, otherwise winds overnight will become rather light until the cold front moves south through the region late Monday morning and afternoon shifting the flow to northerly at around 10 knots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A near-zonal upper level flow has set up over Florida and will persist through Monday morning. At that time, broad upper troughing moves eastward through the southeast U.S., then exiting into the western Atlantic by early Tuesday morning. On the surface, high pressure east of the Bahamas ridges westward across southern Florida while the persistent frontal boundary that has been over northern Florida and the northern gulf waters slowly meanders southeastward through the day. Most of the rainfall associated with this front will be limited to Tampa Bay and northward through the early afternoon, then increasing in coverage and intensity as the main cold front line moves southeastward across west central and southwest Florida later this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. The latest high-res guidance is bringing some strong storms into the eastern gulf waters and west coast of Florida this evening. There is a potential for some severe weather with this line of storms with isolated damaging winds and brief tornadoes possible. SPC has placed most of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms through early Monday morning. Some residual showers and a stray storm will be possible through late Monday morning. The front will finally push south and east of Florida by Monday afternoon. Strong high pressure builds in behind this front and will bring clearing conditions and slightly cooler weather for most of next week. Temperatures for Monday through Thursday next week will only reach the mid 60's to mid 70's each afternoon with overnight lows dipping into the 40's and 50's each night. By next Friday, temperatures warm slightly to right around average for this time of year. By late Friday into Saturday, models are developing another area of low pressure and frontal boundary over the northern gulf coast states and will bring our next chance of showers to end next week. Another cool down looks to be on track to move into the area by next weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary extending across northern Florida and the northern gulf waters will meander southeastward through the day keeping variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Monday morning. Showers and storms increase in coverage and intensity through the day with numerous showers and isolated storms expected this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. Some of these storms may be severe and have the potential to produce damaging winds and brief waterspouts over the eastern gulf waters. Mariners should use caution and remain weather aware when operating in the eastern gulf waters today. By Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain and storm chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary stretched across northern Florida shifts further southeastward today through early Monday morning with increasing rain and storm chances expected this evening and continuing through Monday morning. High pressure builds back in by Monday afternoon with pleasant weather expected for most of next week. No other fire weather concerns expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 67 75 54 70 / 90 30 0 0 FMY 71 79 58 75 / 60 50 0 0 GIF 65 75 52 70 / 90 30 0 0 SRQ 67 76 54 71 / 90 50 0 0 BKV 59 74 44 69 / 90 20 0 0 SPG 68 74 57 69 / 90 40 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis ####018005016#### FXUS64 KOHX 080058 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 658 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 655 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Low chance for scattered light rain or sprinkles tonight into early Monday morning. A few snow flurries possible Monday morning. - Next chance for light rain Wednesday night through Friday, possibly ending with some light snow showers. - Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving late week with frigid temperatures for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 655 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A disturbance accompanied by a cold front will move across the Mid State tonight. Moisture / light rain showing up on radar across the Ms Delta will move into mainly southern and eastern sections of Middle TN late tonight. Rainfall will be scattered and very light with most places seeing just "sprinkles". There may be enough cold air for a flurries Monday morning. High pressure will build in behind this system Monday, but as we have seen during several recent events, the low level moisture will linger under a strong temperature inversion, so clouds will be slow to break up after this front. Monday will be another chilly, cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. Wind chills will be in the 30s through the day. The forecast was recently updated for hourly trends, but the main elements are on track. This includes our continued expectations for an Arctic blast late this week that will bring the coldest air yet this season. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Stratus once again is making today another overcast day. I'm not sure we will be in the 50s for highs today with all the cloud cover if it persists. Some locations on the plateau have had sunshine until very recently, which makes me think that some spots that have seen more sun before the clouds came in could reach the low 50s today. The rest of us will remain in the 40s. Some rain chances will begin to impact Middle Tennessee in the evening hours, as a cold front moves in and pulls in just enough moisture to give us some rain, but not much. QPF amounts look pretty dry, with guidance suggesting probabilities for over a tenth of an inch of precipitation are slim (<20%). Overnight into Monday morning, this rain will changeover into flurries, but no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 After our dreary weekend, high pressure will build in through Wednesday morning, driving temperatures into the 50s for highs. This story changes mid-week, as a trough is expected to dig south and bring more rain chances to Middle Tennessee. Precipitation amounts with this system once again do not look like much in our area, with better chances for a wetting rain in the eastern part of the state. One notable thing is an arctic air mass from close to the arctic circle will be behind another cold front that will move through at the end of the week. We're still refining exacts with how cold we will get but it looks like this could be our first widespread run at the teens for lows this season. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Look for another night and another day with low ceilings across Middle Tennessee, with also some evening and overnight fog primarily along and near the Cumberland Plateau. An inverted surface trough has already slipped past the mid state, and an upper trough currently situated to our west will come through later tonight that looks to produce light precipitation, mainly across the Cumberland Plateau, hence the PROB30 remarks at KCSV and KSRB. Elsewhere, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. There isn't a great deal of antecedent moisture across the region, despite the persistent low clouds; the 00Z sounding from OHX shows a moist column up to ~800 mb, then much drier above. Expect low clouds to linger at least through Monday, with surface winds increasing from the NNW later this evening and persisting tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 37 43 28 51 / 30 20 0 0 Clarksville 34 41 27 50 / 30 0 0 0 Crossville 34 39 23 48 / 40 20 0 0 Columbia 37 43 25 52 / 30 0 0 0 Cookeville 35 39 25 48 / 40 30 0 0 Jamestown 33 38 24 47 / 40 40 0 0 Lawrenceburg 37 42 25 51 / 30 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 37 43 25 51 / 20 10 0 0 Waverly 34 41 26 50 / 20 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Rose