####018004335#### FXUS66 KSTO 122051 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 151 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... -Well above normal temps in the lower elevations, triple digit highs with widespread Moderate HeatRisk / Areas of Major HeatRisk into the weekend (outside of Delta breeze influenced areas). - The Delta breeze will bring cooling into infuenced areas over the weekend, with Minor HeatRisk and highs a little less hot, in the 90s into next week. -Significant warm-up early next week, Sunday-Tuesday with Widespread Major HeatRisk for the northern and central Sacramento Valley. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk elsewhere, -Hottest temperatures Monday for the area north of I-80, with areas of Major HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures have trended even higher today (1-4 degrees at noon), and are well above normal. The big change is that winds are generally much lighter than yesterday, though there are still some northerly gusts up to 20 mph through the morning for the northern Sacramento Valley. Humidity levels this afternoon are generally 4 to 8 percent higher, 8 to 10 percent in the Delta, so along with the lighter winds fire concerns are elevated but generally not critical. Low humidity levels and periods of breezy onshore winds will continue into next week. Onshore flow, increasing humidity and cooling temperatures are expected mid to late week, further lessening fire weather concerns. Triple digit Valley highs are expected this afternoon and continue through at least the early weekend in many locations. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is present this afternoon, with areas of Major HeatRisk, mainly for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Delta breeze influenced locations will see some cooling through the weekend, while the northern Sacramento Valley, mountains, and foothills are forecast to see just slightly lower highs. The Heat Advisory continues for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills through 11 pm Saturday, June 13th. While other areas in the Valley will benefit from the Delta breeze cooling influence, especially in the evening, it remains important for everyone in interior NorCal to practice heat safety! Stay cool and hydrated, and consider checking in on those more sensitive to heat. Early next week high temperatures have trended even higher for the northern and central Sacramento Valley, and could see even higher temperatures than for late this week, up to 110 in some northern Sacramento Valley locations. Probability of Major HeatRisk has continued to trend larger there, around 100 percent in some spots, so confidence is high. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the northern Sacramento Valley, adjacent mountains and foothills, and Butte County from 11 am Sunday to 11 pm Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to trend lower mid to late week, back to near normal Thursday. Mainly dry weather is expected into next week. Still can't completely rule out a few stray showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the Sierra crest south of US HWY 50 over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. Winds generally less than 12 kts everywhere this afternoon, except in the vicinity of the Delta, where westerly gusts up to 25 kts remain until around 12z Saturday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000- 3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft. Extreme Heat Warning 11 AM PDT Sunday to 11 PM Tuesday PDT for the northern Sacramento Valley, surrounding mountains and foothills, and Butte County. && $$ ####018006116#### FXUS66 KOTX 122051 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 151 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Northeast Mountains into North Idaho through early evening. - Friday: Dry and breezy Okanogan Valley with elevated fire weather conditions through early evening - Warming well above normal over the weekend into early next week. Minor HeatRisk into the weekend and increasing threat for moderate HeatRisk Monday into Tuesday. - Tuesday: Very warm and dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a dry cold front passage will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm above normal through the weekend into next week. The warm up will be muted on Friday with a low pressure system clipping the northeast portion of the region. The weather system will bring breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the mountains of northeast Washington into North Idaho. Then a strong ridge of high pressure brings warmer temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Fire weather will be a concern Tuesday with warm, dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: A mid level wave dropping into NE Washington and the ID Panhandle will continue to promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through early this evening. A dry low level air mass initially with temperature-dewpoint spreads of 25-35F will contribute to enhanced downdrafts from the convection with brief gusts of 30-40 MPH. Storms will be also capable of producing pea sized hail and brief downpours. A combination of the mid level wave exiting North Idaho this evening and loss of daytime heating will lead to a quick end to the convection after sunset with clearing skies overnight. This wave has also ushered in breezy north winds down the Okanogan Valley, which combined with warm temperatures and low relative humidity will lead to continued elevated fire weather conditions into the early evening. Saturday: The flow aloft turns northerly as an upper ridge builds off the coast. Another mid level wave is progged by the models to clip north Idaho, but is not as strong as the wave that went through today. Still, there is just enough boundary layer moisture and afternoon instability for a 20 percent chance of afternoon showers over the mountains of the ID Panhandle. Sunday and Monday: An upper ridge moves over the region providing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures increase into the 80s on Sunday, and then mid 80s to mid 90s on Monday. Tuesday: A dry cold front passage will lead to at least elevated, if not critical, fire weather conditions in dry grass along the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin. The NBM has trended towards more cooling in Central Washington (5-10 degrees cooler compared to Monday) while Eastern Washington and North Idaho experience similar temperatures. Temperatures in the 80s to low 90s combined with low relative humidity are forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean has been pretty consistent with wind gusts of 30-40 MPH, locally up to 45 MPH along the East Slopes into the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. Wednesday through Friday: Drier air behind the front from Tuesday lingers over the region supporting dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday along with high temperatures cooling into the mid 70s to mid 80s. On Friday an upper trough nosing closer to the region will bring a 20 percent chance of showers to the northern mountains otherwise dry conditions are expected to prevail. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Building cumulus over the northern mountains today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing near 20z. This activity will drop southward during the afternoon/evening hours toward KGEG/KSFF/KCOE between 22z-02z. Gusty outflow winds and short bursts of heavy rain will be the primary hazards with these showers/tstms before they begin to dissipate. Outflow wind gusts of 25-35 kts are possible for these airports, but too low of confidence on which hour or airport to be impacted to include in TAF forecast. Following the shower activity, winds will decrease and turn more north-northeast with the exception of KEAT which will remain northwest. VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the TAF period except for brief restrictions in showers or thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 30 percent chance of showers, and a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms impacting KGEG/KSFF/KCOE between 22z-02z. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 47 77 49 83 54 87 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 75 49 81 54 85 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 75 47 79 49 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 51 83 52 86 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 42 79 45 85 52 88 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 45 74 48 81 52 84 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 45 74 47 81 52 84 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 52 84 54 89 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 57 84 60 89 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 51 84 55 90 60 93 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$ ####018003270#### FXUS63 KGID 122053 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 353 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. - A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, and another round of isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. - Next week starts off cool on Sunday, but the 90s return by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle, and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry through sunrise Saturday. On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be ~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones. Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and 0-6km shear 30-40kt. Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the 40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid 70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry. A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push 100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a more active period again starting the following weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: South winds gust 20-25kts through this afternoon under mostly clear skies. A cold front moves through Saturday morning, and a few thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this front...mainly in the 10-13Z timeframe. North-northeast winds increase late in the period and into Saturday afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels ####018003763#### FXUS65 KLKN 122053 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 153 PM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected through this weekend. * Confidence is increasing with respect to well above normal temperatures by early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are sunny across a majority of northern and central Nevada this afternoon. A few, high-based clouds have developed across portions of central Nevada this afternoon. Winds are occasionally breezy. The quiet weather will continue into the overnight hours with lows in the 40s and 50s. The upper ridge will be wobbling out in the eastern Pacific with weak troughing setting up across California on Saturday. Conditions will remain dry across northern and central Nevada but a few buildups can be expected across central Nevada. No precipitation is expected at this time. Winds will be out of the west and northwest with some afternoon gusts to 25 mph or so. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s. Dry and quiet weather expected for the night time with lows in the 40s and 50s. The upper trough will continue settling over central California on Sunday. Limited instability and a slow moisture seep in the low to mid-levels will bring a low probability (ten percent) of isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of southeastern White Pine county Sunday afternoon. Highs will remain in the 80s and 90s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Monday through Thursday, heights will slowly rise during this time period. As such, temperatures will experience slight warming with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s with dry conditions. HeatRisk will need to be examined, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, for possible heat headlines in zone 033. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s through this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Tweaks were made to the NBM forecast for Sunday with regards to the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorms in southeast White Pine county Sunday afternoon. Confidence in the placement and coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms is low at this time. Confidence is currently high with the dry and warming conditions through the weekend into early next week. Confidence is moderate in the upcoming heat for the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through the upcoming 24 hours. Winds continue to be out of the west and northwest 10-15G20-25KT for the rest of the afternoon before diminishing later this evening. Expect the winds to redevelop tomorrow afternoon W-NW10-15G20-25KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Look for elevated fire weather conditions over the next few days as the upper level ridge builds east. West to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts to 25 mph are expected. An isolated dry thunderstorm (five to ten percent) cannot be ruled out across southeast zone 425 Saturday. A quick moving trough passing to the north will shift winds out of the north Sunday and Monday, but speeds remain similar. Limited moisture and instability will try to make its way into the southeastern portions of zone 425 Sunday afternoon with a ten percent probability of isolated dry thunderstorms near Great Basin National Park. Warming temperatures will continue, rising into the upper 80s to upper 90s by early to middle portions of next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86