####018005571#### FXUS61 KCAR 120110 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 910 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains across the region tonight into Sunday, then exits across the Maritimes Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday, crosses the region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 9:10 PM Update: Satellite pictures show a partly to mostly cloudy sky across most of the FA. Clouds are breaking up a bit with the loss of daytime heating, and as more stable air works into the region from the east. It is now mainly clear across most of Washington and Hancock Counties, and a clearing line has been backing toward eastern Maine from New Brunswick during the past several hours, and this trend looks to continue. Have updated the sky grids to reflect the latest trends and expected conditions for the remainder of the night. The coolest temperatures are where the clouds have cleared out Downeast and have lowered the lows and issued a frost advisory for parts of the area. Previous discussion: Surface high pressure lifts north of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence tonight through Sunday. Aloft, upper level low pressure approaches tonight, reaching the Gulf of Maine Sunday. Any lingering isolated showers will end this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Diurnal clouds will also diminish early tonight, leaving partly cloudy/mostly clear skies overnight. Expect partly sunny skies early Sunday, with a generally partly sunny/mostly cloudy afternoon. However, isolated afternoon showers are also possible across west-central and southwest portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the forecast area, while ranging through the 50s along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain across the region Sunday night. Aloft, a 500 MB low will drift across the Gulf of Maine and then toward the Canadian Maritimes. Expect partly cloudy skies and dry weather Sunday night with lows in the 40s. The upper low lifts through the Maritimes on Monday with as high pressure drifts east into the western Atlantic in advance of an approaching warm front. Expect partly sunny skies on Monday with afternoon highs in the 60s. A warm front approaches later Monday night and crosses the region Tuesday. A cold front will then slowly approach from the west later Tuesday afternoon. Expect increasing clouds with a chance of showers Monday night. Moisture advection will increase during Tuesday in advance of the approaching cold front. Precipitable water values increase to around one inch later Tuesday afternoon. Thus, expect a mainly cloudy sky on Tuesday with an increasing chance for showers, especially across northern areas. The shower and clouds will limit Tuesday's high to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front slowly crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Weak waves of low pressure moving along the slow moving boundary brings the likelihood of showers or even a steadier rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still uncertainty as to how much southern stream moisture might get pulled northward along the boundary but it appears as if most of the area has the potential to see upward of one inch or more of rainfall during the mid week period. Patchy fog will also be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday hinges on what happens with a potential stronger area of low pressure that develops in the southern stream and tracks northeast from the mid atlantic region later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Latest GFS tracks the low northeast toward the southwest tip of Nova Scotia Wednesday night through Thursday, keeping the chance for rain. The CMC keeps the low well to our south and tracks it east of NJ out to sea, which is close the GEFS ensemble mean and the 12Z operational EC. Thus, will trend the forecast toward a drier pattern later Wednesday night and Thursday per latest NBM pops. Higher pressure builds in for Thursday night and Friday. Another system may bring another chance for shower by Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures will trend toward above normal levels by mid to late week. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Sunday. Light and variable wind through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Light wind. Monday night and Tuesday. MVFR. Chance showers. S wind. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. S to SE wind. Showers/rain/patchy fog. Thursday...VFR. N wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA levels Sunday night through Monday, then possibly approaching SCA by Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...CB/Norcross/TWD Marine...CB/Norcross/TWD ####018005622#### FXUS61 KCAR 120111 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 911 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains across the region tonight into Sunday, then exits across the Maritimes Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday, crosses the region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 9:10 PM Update: Satellite pictures show a partly to mostly cloudy sky across most of the FA. Clouds are breaking up a bit with the loss of daytime heating, and as more stable air works into the region from the east. It is now mainly clear across most of Washington and Hancock Counties, and a clearing line has been backing toward eastern Maine from New Brunswick during the past several hours, and this trend looks to continue. Have updated the sky grids to reflect the latest trends and expected conditions for the remainder of the night. The coolest temperatures are where the clouds have cleared out Downeast and have lowered the lows and issued a frost advisory for parts of the area. Previous discussion: Surface high pressure lifts north of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence tonight through Sunday. Aloft, upper level low pressure approaches tonight, reaching the Gulf of Maine Sunday. Any lingering isolated showers will end this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Diurnal clouds will also diminish early tonight, leaving partly cloudy/mostly clear skies overnight. Expect partly sunny skies early Sunday, with a generally partly sunny/mostly cloudy afternoon. However, isolated afternoon showers are also possible across west-central and southwest portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the upper 30s to around 40 Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the upper 50s to around 60 across much of the forecast area, while ranging through the 50s along the Downeast coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain across the region Sunday night. Aloft, a 500 MB low will drift across the Gulf of Maine and then toward the Canadian Maritimes. Expect partly cloudy skies and dry weather Sunday night with lows in the 40s. The upper low lifts through the Maritimes on Monday with as high pressure drifts east into the western Atlantic in advance of an approaching warm front. Expect partly sunny skies on Monday with afternoon highs in the 60s. A warm front approaches later Monday night and crosses the region Tuesday. A cold front will then slowly approach from the west later Tuesday afternoon. Expect increasing clouds with a chance of showers Monday night. Moisture advection will increase during Tuesday in advance of the approaching cold front. Precipitable water values increase to around one inch later Tuesday afternoon. Thus, expect a mainly cloudy sky on Tuesday with an increasing chance for showers, especially across northern areas. The shower and clouds will limit Tuesday's high to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front slowly crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Weak waves of low pressure moving along the slow moving boundary brings the likelihood of showers or even a steadier rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still uncertainty as to how much southern stream moisture might get pulled northward along the boundary but it appears as if most of the area has the potential to see upward of one inch or more of rainfall during the mid week period. Patchy fog will also be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday hinges on what happens with a potential stronger area of low pressure that develops in the southern stream and tracks northeast from the mid atlantic region later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Latest GFS tracks the low northeast toward the southwest tip of Nova Scotia Wednesday night through Thursday, keeping the chance for rain. The CMC keeps the low well to our south and tracks it east of NJ out to sea, which is close the GEFS ensemble mean and the 12Z operational EC. Thus, will trend the forecast toward a drier pattern later Wednesday night and Thursday per latest NBM pops. Higher pressure builds in for Thursday night and Friday. Another system may bring another chance for shower by Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures will trend toward above normal levels by mid to late week. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Sunday. Light and variable wind through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Light wind. Monday night and Tuesday. MVFR. Chance showers. S wind. Tuesday night through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. S to SE wind. Showers/rain/patchy fog. Thursday...VFR. N wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA levels Sunday night through Monday, then possibly approaching SCA by Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ016-017-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...CB/Norcross/TWD Marine...CB/Norcross/TWD ####018005847#### FXUS62 KMLB 120111 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 911 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Current-Tonight...A rather impressive thunderstorm developed along the sea breeze boundary this afternoon near West Palm Beach late this afternoon and has pushed offshore this evening, producing quite the exceptional lightning show. Isolated showers in the wake of this cell have extended behind, bringing light to moderate rain to southern portions of Martin County in the last couple of hours. Activity over land is on a downward trend for tonight, so pulled back rain chances slightly over the next 12 hours. A very well defined sea breeze has pushed over the interior this evening, with northeast to east winds observed behind the passage. While confidence is low at the moment, we could see development of patchy dense fog for areas east of Lake George as well as east of Lake Okeechobee along the Treasure Coast. Visibility could drop as low as one half mile and will be very localized just prior to sunrise. Lows tonight will drop to the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 911 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 East coast sea breeze has pushed well beyond coastal terminals this afternoon, set to approach KMCO within the next hour or two. Most shower and storm activity along the sea breeze has remained south of local terminals this evening, so the only noticeable impact from the boundary is the northeasterly wind shift, which brought gusts of 18- 20 knots earlier today. By 03-06Z, winds will become light and calm, returning northeasterly soon after daybreak tomorrow. Guidance is hinting at patchy fog development in the vicinity of Lake George and east of Lake Okeechobee late tonight and early tomorrow morning, but confidence is too low to include at this time, although very brief MVFR reductions may be possible at KDAB/KLEE/KSUA/KFPR. Mostly clear skies tonight will become scattered and broken tomorrow afternoon with the return of mid to high level clouds. Another slight chance for showers along the sea breeze after 18Z, but should once again be confined to the southern terminals but no inclusion in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Current-Sunday... Favorable boating conditions continue. Cold front across the Treasure Coast waters this afternoon will shift south of the local area into this evening and will remain across South Florida through the period. High pressure will build in behind the front and continue through Sunday as it shifts slowly eastward. North to northeast winds 5-10 KT will veer eastward Sunday afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Seas 2-4ft this afternoon will decrease to 2-3ft overnight and remain through Sunday. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible Sunday afternoon, mainly across the Treasure Coast. Sun Night-Thu...Weak high pressure over the western Atlc will provide for initial onshore flow into Mon evening, then winds become more southerly overnight/daybreak Tue with an offshore component by mid-week. Initial wind speeds 7-13 kts increase during the day on Mon to 12-18 kts and 15-20 kts Mon night-Tue evening; perhaps 18-22 kts Gulf Stream Tue aftn-evening. Winds remain elevated over the Gulf Stream and no significant improvement until Wed afternoon-Thu back to 10-15 kts on average. An unsettled pattern develops with disturbed weather and increasing shower/ISOLD-SCT lightning storm chances thru mid-week (offshore-moving Tue/Wed - couple strong to marginally svr late day-evening). Seas 2-4 ft Mon building to 3-5 ft on Tue, back to 2-4 ft Tue overnight, then AOB 3 ft again by Thu. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Sunday... Fire sensitive weather conditions will continue as drier air remains in place behind the frontal passage. Min RH values will drop into the mid to upper 30s to low 40s across the interior, with low 30s across the far western interior. Northeast winds will be 5- 10 mph on Sunday with the east coast sea breeze forecast to develop and push inland, veering the winds easterly in the afternoon. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible Sunday afternoon, mainly across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. Otherwise, no mentionable rain chances. Mon-Thu...Moisture and shower/lightning storm chances increase thru the period, with Min RH values forecast to remain above critical values. Until we receive enough wetting rainfall areawide, there could be potential fire ignitions from cloud-to-ground lightning strikes with any storm given the overall dry conditions. Tue/Wed afternoon's likely sustained (offshore) winds approaching 10-16 mph/12-18 mph, respectively with frequent higher afternoon gusts. Storms, esp Tue-Wed afternoons will contain gusty/erratic outflows. Very warm temperatures return with heat indices will increase well into the 90s and L100s - especially Tue thru the end of the week! && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 85 70 85 / 0 10 0 40 MCO 69 90 71 92 / 0 10 0 50 MLB 71 85 72 86 / 10 10 0 40 VRB 69 87 71 88 / 10 20 0 40 LEE 68 89 72 92 / 0 10 0 40 SFB 68 89 70 90 / 0 10 0 50 ORL 70 90 71 91 / 0 10 0 50 FPR 68 87 70 87 / 10 20 0 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper LONG TERM...Schaper AVIATION...Schaper