####018003732#### FXUS63 KFGF 280450 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (20%) for minor impacts Friday due to snow and mixed precipitation. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Clouds have cleared all but Baudette and Waskish at 03z. Enough of a west wind to keep temps from dropping too fast, but as high pressure ridge moves slowly east expect to see temps drop as anticipated with single digits to lower teens. .UPDATE... Issued at 709 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Will be monitoring the clearing trend in NW Minnesota this evening for any sky cover updates. Otherwise clear sky in E ND and the RRV tonight. Winds diminishing. Coldest temps in west central MN with fresh snowcover with single digits likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Clouds and flurries continue to be present on satellite this afternoon. Guidance has clouds pushing east into tonight, as a surface ridge moves into the area for a brief period. There are two chances for precipitation over the weekend into next week. The first, Friday and Friday evening, results from a shortwave off of a low in Canada propagating south to our area. In addition, there is some transient WAA and weak 700-850mb frontogenesis aiding in the forcing of this system. Looking at probabilities for winter weather with this system, there's a 50% chance for greater than or equal to 1" of snow along and north of HWY 2. Once you take it up to greater than or equal to 4", probabilities in the same location drop to 10-20%. Along with snow, there is a small chance (10-20%) for freezing rain during the day on Friday as temperatures warm above freezing. This chance looks to be more in the southern Red River Valley south of I-94, rather than the area more progged for higher snowfall. Because the chance for mixed-phase precipitation is dependent upon temperatures, we will have to continue to monitor the possibility and temperature trends. The second chance for precipitation comes Sunday into Monday. This chance for precipitation has more synoptic support, as it is due to the ejection of a 500mb wave to the northern plains. Current guidance has the main low further south, in the South Dakota and central Minnesota area, but our southern areas look like they could receive some snow from this system. Currently, there is a 10-20% chance for an inch or more south of I-94. There is a lot of uncertainty with this system, including the exact track, so not much else can be said other than it is in the guidance and we will have to see how closer range guidance handles it to give more information. Outside of the precipitation, next work week looks to be quiet through mid-week. Temperatures are on a warming trend Saturday and Sunday, and look to get to more spring-like temperatures by mid-week next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Skies are expected to be clear overnight through Thursday afternoon. Late in the day into Thursday evening increase in high clouds into DVL basin...but clear or a few high clouds elsewhere. Winds WNW 5-10 kts in RRV and MN into Thursday and then calm as high moves overhead Thursday late aftn/eve. Winds will turn southeast in DVL basin late Thu aftn as high pressure moves east of that area. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...Riddle ####018004494#### FXUS63 KSGF 280450 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost is expected again tonight with temperatures dropping to near freezing. - A warming trend will bring temperatures well above normal for Friday through Monday. - Windy conditions are expected Friday with wind gusts over 40 mph possible northwest of I-44. - An active weather period Sunday into Monday with some strong to possibly severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level low was located over the western Great Lakes with a trough axis shifting east through the area. Upper energy in the southern plains was producing some showers over Oklahoma, but this is expected to stay south of the area. Another upper low was still off the west coast with upper ridging shifting east into the Rockies. It's this next system that may bring some active weather to the area Sunday into Monday. Closer to the ground, high pressure was over the area with a light wind and clear sky. Temperatures have rebounded from the mid 20s this morning into the mid 40s to low 50s so far this afternoon. Air remains dry with dew points in the low to mid 20s. Tonight: The upper trough will shift east of the area tonight with upper ridge axis starting to move into the western CWA by 12z Thursday. Surface high will be overhead and then shift further south with a light south wind developing towards sunrise. Temperatures will likely drop quickly this evening after sunset with dew points in the 20s. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night closer to freezing, but low enough for a widespread frost. Thursday: Upper ridge will continue to build back into the area with low level warm advection setting up over the area. The air will remain dry with plenty of sunshine and we should see temperatures rise back up into the mid 60s across the area. Thursday Night: Low level warm advection will persist across the area and we should see lows back in the low to mid 40s. Some low lying areas in the eastern Ozarks may still dip into the 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Windy conditions Friday: A strong pressure gradient will start to set up over the area, especially north and west of the I-44 corridor, in between the departing high pressure system and a developing low pressure in the plains. NBM probabilistic data shows 80-100% probabilities of wind gusts at or above 40 mph on Friday northwest of the I-44 corridor. With RH values in the 30s and 40s on Friday, the combination of wind and low RH will bring elevated fire weather conditions into the region. Warming trend continues into early next week: The strong southerly low level flow ahead of the low in the plains will continue to advect warmer air and Gulf moisture into the region. Highs will return to the 70s on Friday through Monday with some low 80s possible Sunday and Monday. Active weather possible Sunday into Monday: The upper level low currently off the northwest coast will begin to carve out a deeper trough over the southwest U.S. over the weekend with broad southwest flow over the central into southern plains. Low level flow will continue to draw in warmer air and Gulf moisture with a warm frontal boundary setting up around the northern portion of the CWA and a dry line shifting east into the plains. CIPS/CSU severe weather signals continue to highlight areas in the CWA on both Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Calm winds at the start of the forecast period will increase out of the southwest to near 10 kt with an occasional gust to 15 kt after 18Z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Record High Temperatures: March 30: KUNO: 82/1963 KVIH: 80/1967 April 1: KUNO: 86/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 1: KSGF: 62/1946 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Didio CLIMATE...Camden ####018002855#### FXUS64 KLCH 280451 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Some light reflectivity showing up on area radars in association with a weak shortwave working across the region this afternoon. Area web cams and observations give reason to think that most, if not all, of this activity is virga. Expect this moisture and the increased cloud cover to continue to work east of the area through the evening with skies clearing overnight. High pressure becomes centered over the region tomorrow with weak ridging aloft yielding clear skies, light northerly flow and afternoon highs in the lower 70s. The high slides east of the region Thursday night turning winds back out of the south Friday allowing dewpoints to gradually climb back into the upper 50s by Friday night. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Saturday through Tuesday features a large and expansive H5 ridge with an elongated SFC high across the GoM. This will allow for a rather abrupt warmup into the weekend and early next week. Highs by the weekend/early next week could climb into the middle/upper 80s with light to moderate onshore flow. While confidence is marginal at this time, odds are increasing that a positively tilted trof swings through with a cold front sliding across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, dry weather returns. 78 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 No changes to previous TAF thinking (Forecast soundings/time- height sections indicate minimal low-level/boundary layer moisture thanks to a dry nrly flow, thus VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period with just some mid-level cloud cover ongoing til the approaching shortwave clears the area. Winds will initially remain nrly, but turn variable Thursday afternoon as the sfc high moves overhead.). 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Offshore flow will continue to relax tonight into tomorrow before turning back onshore tomorrow night as high pressure departs to the east. Light to moderate onshore flow will then continue until the passage of a cold front mid next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 41 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 45 73 50 75 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 47 72 48 76 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 49 75 54 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...25 ####018003991#### FXUS64 KMOB 280451 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon. Northerly winds around 7 to 12 knots overnight increase to 10 to 15 knots Thursday morning, with frequent gusts to around 20 knots. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 A large upper trof centered mostly over the central states slowly progresses into the eastern states during the period while a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the forecast area. Very dry deep layer air remains in place over the region and have continued with a dry forecast through Thursday. Lows tonight mostly range from the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s/near 50 at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A High Risk of rip currents remains in effect until 1 am tonight, after which a moderate risk will be in effect through Thursday afternoon. /29 SHORT/LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 The broad upper trough will be moving east of our area by Thursday night. Shortwave ridging aloft will develop and then persist over our area Friday through Monday. This will lead to dry and warm conditions through the weekend as a surface high pressure drifts eastward over the area. Southerly flow returns by early next week as a result of the surface high pressure becoming centered over the western Atlantic. Upper flow also becomes more southwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper ridge moves east of the area. As moisture deepens late Tuesday into early Wednesday of next week, the next frontal boundary is expected to move into the area from the west, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will gradually warm with highs in the low to mid 80s by next week. A slight cool down again Tuesday night into Wednesday with the frontal passage and associated increased rain chances, with lows again in the 50s Tuesday night and highs on Wednesday back down into the 70s. /13 MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Light to moderate northerly winds become moderate to strong tonight then diminish Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 10 pm this evening until 10 am Thursday for the 20-60 nm portion. Small craft should exercise caution for Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and the near shore waters during the same period as the Small Craft Advisory. Small craft should also exercise caution for the 20-60 nm portion from 10 am Thursday through much of the remainder of the afternoon. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 46 72 44 72 53 76 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 51 72 48 71 56 74 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 53 72 52 70 58 73 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 45 71 40 75 46 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 42 69 40 74 48 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 44 67 39 73 46 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 46 74 42 75 47 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob ####018002719#### FXUS63 KIWX 280451 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1251 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cold tonight with lows in the upper-20s. - Not as cold Thursday through the weekend. - Periods of rain, and thunderstorms, are expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 After much delay, in typical northern-Indiana fashion, stratus is finally eroding in the west. Most folks, except perhaps northwest Ohio, will see at least a brief glimpse of sun before sunset. Otherwise, high confidence in clearing skies tonight. Non-zero risk of frost tonight with wind of 5 knots or less. However, dew point depressions of 5 degrees or more give me pause on putting frost in the grids. High pressure resides over the mid-Mississippi valley tomorrow, while a shortwave ripples through the Great Lakes. High-resolution guidance is trying to spit out some light rain showers late Thursday. Isentropic ascent is acceptable, but could be improved. Forecast soundings toward White County show shallow moisture as well. Seems like a low-reward type scenario at this moment, so, dry forecast remains. Otherwise, dry until Friday night when a low develops downstream of a shortwave ejecting from a West Coast trough. Model guidance has been fairly consistent with rain developing in the warm sector of this low, poised to track along the US 30 corridor. Any dry air concerns appear to be void after looking at forecast soundings which depict rapid saturation. This is perhaps a product of the strengthening 850-mb jet through the Mid-Mississippi valley. Rainfall estimates vary notably, but total rainfall in excess of 0.50" is certainly plausible by Saturday afternoon. Neutral advection among a zonal 500-mb air pattern yields seasonably mild temperatures through the weekend. But, this pattern welcomes additional rain chances later Sunday, continuing through Tuesday. Perhaps notably colder by the middle of next week as the aformentioned West Coast trough arrives to the central US. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 A large upper low north of Lake Superior will move north today. Wind gusts around 20 kts are likely today. Winds will become light tonight as a neutral point/col develops over the area. VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Skipper