####018008537#### FXUS63 KABR 101925 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 125 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow showers/flurries continue over northeastern SD into west central MN this afternoon. Little to no additional accumulation is expected. - Wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain expected across portions of central, north central and northeast South Dakota from Wednesday night through early Thursday evening. Ice accumulation of a tenth of an inch or less. Snow accumulation generally at or below 2 inches. - Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits to teens, coldest Sunday morning. Wind chill values Saturday and Sunday morning could be as low as -20F to -30F degrees. - Another round of snow will be possible Friday night into Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track and amounts for this potential event, but there is currently a 20-50 percent chance of seeing up to 3 inches of snow across portions of central and north central South Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 124 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Plenty of clouds and flurries/light snow showers remain over northeastern South Dakota into west central MN, enough to bring the visibility at ETH/VVV/ATY down to 4-6 miles early this afternoon. Little to no additional accumulation is expected. Winds continue to slowly diminish, with gusts of 25mph or less now east of the James River. Winds will continue to weaken through the afternoon. Otherwise, we're looking into the upcoming light snow west of the MO River late this afternoon to become a wintry mix after 06Z. Freezing rain will be the main weather type from north central SD through Pierre (changing to mainly rain after 16Z Thursday) and Miller into mid afternoon Thursday. The current headlines look on track at this time, with some adjustments possible over portions of north central SD where ice accumulations have increased. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 407 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 At 3 AM CST, across most of central/north central South Dakota, clouds have cleared off. It's partly to mostly clear there. Further east, things are still cloudy as light snow continues to sweep southward on the back of this most recent clipper system that is now positioned over northern Iowa and continuing to move away from the region. With the sustained northwest winds still running in the 25 to nearly 40 mph range throughout and east of the James River valley, including occasionally higher gusts, where light falling snow continues, have extended the winter weather advisory out in time to 6AM CST. There haven't been too many instances of significantly reduced visibility (less than 1/2mi) in falling/blowing snow. Still, seeing 1-2mi visbies in regional observations, so am content with that extension. Anticipating the majority of falling snow to be done by roughly 6 AM CST, with wind speeds also falling off enough to be able to expire the remaining High Wind Warning headline covering northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota at 6 AM CST this morning. Temperatures have been steadily falling this morning into the upper teens to mid 30s. Short-lived surface high pressure will be centered over the CWA by around 21Z this afternoon. Although, back-wash low stratus behind yesterday/last-night's clipper system will likely be hanging around all day across the eastern third of forecast zones. The western two- thirds of the CWA may see some sunshine to start things off today, but by this afternoon, a fresh new round of clouds will be streaming into the region from the west/northwest. Northwest flow aloft continues the wave-train of low pressure systems, with the next round of precipitation developing later tonight and continuing into early Thursday evening, in the form of a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The RRFS, with support from the NAM/HREF model families has snow developing into the Mobridge area by midnight tonight. WAA within the saturated layer (between ~3kft and 6kft) warms the column enough to transition things over to sleet and then eventually freezing rain. This zone of warming continues to shift east, reaching the James River valley by 12Z Thursday. The NAM/HRRR/RAP are a little bit more aggressive than the RRFS with how far east that warm nose gets pushed. Suffice it to say, the ensemble- based p-type guidance did introduce enough warming into the layer on Thursday to change snow over to freezing rain/sleet even as far as Watertown. So, with sleet and ice accumulation now showing up over onto the Coteau (generally less than a tenth of an inch), along with an inch or two of snowfall, have extended the winter weather advisory over onto the Prairie Coteau accordingly. Once temperatures settle into today's highs, there really will not be much movement of surface temperatures (high's or low's) through Thursday. Perhaps with the low level WAA that is forecast to accompany this next round of winter precipitation, high temperatures on Thursday may be able to climb 5 or 6 degrees. But, that's about it. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 407 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 It appears that there might just be a pattern change by early next week. The positive PNA pattern looks to hold until then, though. PoPs are increasing (now into the likelys 55-70%) for Friday night into Saturday morning, highest across central South Dakota, with the next clipper wave forecast to work through the region. With this system, it looks like it will be all snow, as the low level CAA that ensues after the mid-week wintry mix event should persist until enough cold air is over the region that p-type would just be all snow. In fact, so cold will it potentially be, that SLR's may again be pushing past 18-20:1 and going higher than that when it's all said and done. A lot of the column is going to be in or close to being in the DGZ when this event happens. Otherwise, beyond that system, most of the rest of the extended from Saturday night through next Monday is dry, as the upper level ridge over the western CONUS is progged to shift over into the central part of the country before flattening out, leaving a zonal or near zonal flow pattern in place rolling into Tuesday of next week. And, that should translate into a bit of a warm up heading into Monday and possibly Tuesday of next week. Not that mixing will get up to 850hpa next week, but the anomaly signal at 850hpa is telling. The ENS 850hpa thermal anomaly is 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal for next Monday. Similar (a little bit less "up to 1.5 S.D.) in the NAEFS output for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 124 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions persist at PIR, with MVFR ceilings elsewhere. Before high clouds moved over and obscured the lower clouds, it looked like MBG was on the edge of the lower clouds. There is some breaking up of the cloud deck west of ABR with VFR ceilings expected to return around 21Z. Light snow with temporary MVFR reductions in visibility continue at ATY through 21Z. Otherwise, a wintry mix is expected overnight through Thursday. On the cold side, -SN will be the main precipitation type at ATY (dropping to IFR potentially after 15Z Thursday). ABR will be on the edge of -SN/FZRA/IP after 13Z Thursday. PIR/MBG have the higher chance of experiencing ice accumulations of 0.10" or higher overnight into Thursday. PIR is expected to warm high enough for -FZRA to change to -RA by 17Z Thursday, with that warming line nearing MBG as well. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for SDZ003-004-009-010- 015>017-033>037-051. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for SDZ005-006-018. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for SDZ011-019>023. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...06 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...06 ####018003471#### FXUS66 KHNX 101926 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1126 AM PST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Fog and low clouds will continue each night and morning across the San Joaquin Valley this week. Dense fog will also develop at times in the lower Sierra foothills, coastal ranges, and the Grapevine. 2. A gradual warming trend will occur across the mountains and desert this week, as the high pressure pattern continues over the region. && .DISCUSSION... Little change has been seen in the last 24 hours across Central California. With that, cold and cloudy conditions will persist across the San Joaquin Valley for yet another day. The ridge is now expected to build over the West Coast in the coming days and allowing the current weather pattern to hold firm over the region. Therefore, dry weather is expected through the end of the week and into the weekend. Outside of the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures across the Mountains and Kern Desert will continue to see a slow warming trend under the building ridge of high pressure. Over the next 2 to 3 days, probability of seasonal normal values across the valley will struggle with low percentage. On the contrary, outside of the San Joaquin Valley, the probability of reaching 65 to 70 degrees sit between 60 and 80 percent above the low clouds. Therefore, confidence is high that little change will be seen through the weekend. In the realm of precipitation, ensemble moisture analysis is still showing the blocking high maintaining its position over the Eastern Pacific, and placing the steering current in the direction of the Pacific Northwest. With little change in the next 2-4 day period, Central California will remain dry and covered in low clouds. Longer range ensemble analysis do show a change in the pattern with a hint toward the introduction of precipitation as early as next Tuesday (16 Dec 2025). Yet, uncertainty is still too high on the actual magnitude of the next storm. && .AVIATION... IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail for much of the San Joaquin Valley during the next 24 hours. LIFR conditions will also persist in the coastal ranges, Sierra foothills, and the Kern County mountains due to the low stratus deck. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in the Sierra Nevada and in the Kern County mountain and desert areas over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Wednesday December 10 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno, Kern, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST Thursday for CAZ300-304-308- 313-316>322-334>336. && $$ Public/Aviation....Molina weather.gov/hanford ####018003691#### FXUS64 KHGX 101929 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Nice, seasonable weather anticipated through Thursday, followed by warmer conditions Friday & Saturday. - We'll be on the lookout for some sea fog beginning Friday night and into Saturday night (if water temperatures don't climb another few degrees between now and then). - A stronger front passes through late Saturday night and Sunday morning with some scattered showers in advance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Weak front is in the process of moving through the area, which should keep readings near seasonable norms through Thursday. As high pressure moves to the east and southeast winds resume late in the day tomorrow, we'll see a gradual return of Gulf moisture and associated higher humidities, temps, and RH's Friday and Saturday. The next front will be entering north Tx on Friday, but will likely stall for a while just north of our CWA. Moisture will pool ahead of this feature and we should eventually see some scattered shower activity develop Saturday. Cold high pressure tracking SSEwd through the northern CONUS, Midwest and Mississippi Valley will give the stalled front its needed southward push through our region Saturday night and off the coast Sunday morning. The more significant cold air will be off to our northeast, though we will see another chill in the air with temps back into the 30s/40s at night and 50s/60s during the day through Monday. High pressure moves off to the east and returning southerly flow will quickly drive moisture levels back up heading into Tues. This along with some Pacific moisture streaming below a mid-upper trof moving toward the area should provide for a decent shot of rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Patchy dense fog should clear by mid-morning, ushering in a VFR regime through the rest of the TAF period. Winds should increase somewhat, remaining light, from the south to southwest later this morning, before shifting more northerly this afternoon in the wake of a weak cold front. Occasional gusts over 20 knots cannot be ruled out. But northerly flow in the wake of the front is generally expected to be around 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak, dry, front will be pushing off the coast early this evening. We may need some caution flags in the Gulf waters for a short time period overnight with some 15-20kt NE winds. A southeast flow will resume Thursday afternoon and continue into Saturday night. We will need to be on the lookout for some sea fog development beginning Friday night as warm, moist air moves over the cooler shelf waters. One limitation, however, would be if water temperatures climb 2-3 degrees before then. The fog threat will cease once we see out next cold front pass off the coast Sunday morning followed by moderate to strong northeast winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories should be anticipated behind this front. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 39 66 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 66 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 65 60 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Self MARINE...47