####018004900#### FXUS64 KFWD 061850 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1250 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low clouds will remain in place across portions of North Texas this afternoon resulting in cooler high temperatures. - Another round of low clouds and/or fog is possible late tonight into Sunday morning across portions of North and East TX. A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning with drier air and breezy conditions behind it. - Near to below normal temperatures will continue through Monday, with above normal temperatures expected the rest of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 After a cloudy and/or foggy morning across much of North Texas, it looks like some of these low clouds will linger well into the afternoon hours. This will result in cooler high temperatures, with a few locations along the Red River staying the upper 40s or lower 50s. The rest of area will stay in the 50s and 60s (mainly Central TX) with light southerly winds. Our next cold front is still expected to arrive late tonight into Sunday morning. Latest high-res models are trending toward another round of low clouds and/or fog ahead of the approaching front over portions of North and East TX. This should keep the morning temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s in North TX and upper 40s over in Central TX. The good news is that the post- frontal winds will become breezy by mid-late morning and should lift/scatter out the majority of these clouds. Occasional gusts near 20 to 25 mph are possible in the afternoon. These north winds will keep the daytime highs in the 50s across North TX and low 60s over in Central TX. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night, but the forecast shows sub-freezing temperatures for many locations Sunday night. Make sure to bundle up very well for the morning commute Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Not much has changed in the long-term forecast with a quiet week ahead. After a chilly Monday, a warming trend will take place Tuesday through Thursday as surface high pressure remains to our east and south flow prevails. At the same time, dry northwesterly flow will be in place at the mid-upper levels as a longwave trough dominates the eastern half of the CONUS. Daytime highs will reach the 60s/70s next Wednesday and Thursday before the next cold front approaches our region. As expected with the systems 6-7 days out, the timing and progression of the front is still uncertain. Cluster analysis show almost 50/50 split between the longwave digging farther south into the southern Plains versus keeping it north of our area. If the models continue to trend toward the first option, we could see another round of cold weather arriving to the region by late week or early next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The main aviation concern for the next few hours will be the lingering low clouds and/or reduced vsby across the region. Conditions will slowly continue to improve late this afternoon and evening with VFR conditions expected through tonight. A cold front is set to arrive to the DFW Metroplex sites around 10-11Z Sunday morning and eventually around 13-14Z at Waco. Latest guidance keep the best potential for low ceilings/vsby over in East Texas Sunday morning as the front and surface low moves over the region. However, some of this activity may still impact a few of the sites between 10-14Z. We introduced BKN010 at this time, but future issuance may have to lower cigs/vsby based on the latest trends. Drier air will begin to filter by late morning as the north winds become breezy. We can't rule out some occasional gusts near 20 kts through the afternoon. No other impacts are anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 56 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 48 61 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 40 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 38 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 41 55 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 44 58 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 43 57 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 48 61 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 47 63 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 40 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Sanchez ####018008735#### FXUS61 KPHI 061852 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 152 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Through the day today, our region will be sandwiched between the departing low pressure system moving further off shore and the next approaching cold front in the Great Lakes Region. By Sunday night, that cold front will cross through our region. In the wake of that front, high pressure builds in for the first half of the work week. The second half of the week could be active, with potentially two low pressure systems getting close to the region in that period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A subtle mid-level impulse traversing the region will move offshore by this evening. The region will remain under enhanced westerly flow aloft through Sunday with a shortwave axis associated with an upper- low over the Hudson Bay to the northwest of the region and a large scale trough over the eastern half of the Continental US. At the surface, broad high pressure will build in from the west, with a strong cold front beginning to approach western portions of the area by the evening hours. Low clouds and patchy drizzle have been persistent into this afternoon, but the drizzle is finally departing. Clouds should follow, with clearing from northwest to southeast this evening. A good portion of the overnight hours are expected to be mostly clear, before high level clouds begin to filter in again towards sunrise. Winds will be light tonight, favoring a westerly or northwesterly direction. Lows look to be in the low to mid 20s outside of the coastal plain and urban corridor, where they should bottom out in the upper 20s to near 30. Worth noting is that while not currently anticipated, some patchy fog is not entirely out of the question, especially in areas that saw prolonged light precipitation into this afternoon. If this were to occur, freezing on elevated surfaces would be a concern. Widespread high clouds are likely to continue overspreading the region on Sunday. Winds will become southwesterly but remain relatively light around 5-10 mph. High temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 30s northwest of the fall line, and the low to mid 40s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front is expected to cross our region Sunday evening/overnight, ushering in much colder air. The biggest change from previous model runs is that the associated trough isn't as amplified. What this means for ultimate impacts is the chance for precipitation has decreased and the blend of guidance for wind speeds/gusts has decreased slightly. Stayed close to the blend of guidance for the chance for precipitation, which now means that we don't have any mention of precip in our area. However, will be keeping a close eye on guidance trends especially for the Poconos. For winds however, I included wind/wind gust speeds on the higher end of the blend of guidance for the 12 hours following the frontal passage. This is more in line with model soundings showing a potential for wind gusts above 30 mph. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures, especially Monday and Monday Night, will be well below normal, as much as 20 degrees below normal. For now, have stayed pretty close to the blend of models. However, there are some factors suggesting that guidance could have a warm bias on Monday night/Tuesday morning. During that time, the surface high will likely be situated over our region, with clear skies and very light winds. These types of efficient radiational cooling patterns tend to end up colder than the median blend of guidance. Previous model runs were depicting the potential for clouds to build in Tuesday morning, but with the latest guidance, the chance has decreased. None the less, with the latest guidance, even if we verify at the 10th percentile of guidance for min temperatures, we should still stay above cold weather advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period is still rather muddled in terms of confidence in model runs owing to a split flow pattern and minor differences in the timing and evolution of the two low pressure systems that are possible at the end of the week. Beginning Tuesday night, we will be watching a shortwave trough dig southeastward across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region. It should pivot through or just northwest of the region on Wednesday. In a sharp contrast from previous model runs, some guidance is depicting this a weak and fast moving clipper type system, while other guidance continues to show it interacting with a closed low over Canada, resulting in a broad trough setting up over the eastern seaboard. Depending on how quickly that system moves out, a second short wave trough could dig through the Dakotas/Minnesota area into the Mid Atlantic by Friday. Using a blend of guidance shows a broad chances for precipitation from Wednesday through Friday. However, I don't expect the second half of the week to be a washout; this is more an artifact of timing differences between guidance. It is more likely that if we see any precipitation, it will come in two distinct periods with the two different systems. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 00Z...MVFR and even brief periods of IFR ceilings remain for KMIV, and KACY, with VFR elsewhere. Ceilings should lift/scatter out by 20-21Z. VFR for all terminals thereafter. West wind 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR. West-northwest wind 5 kt or less. There is a low chance (less than 20%) for the development of patchy fog. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Southwesterly wind 5-10 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...Prevailing VFR. Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with a chance (20- 40%) of rain. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated through Sunday. West- northwest winds tonight will be 10-15 kt, and become west- southwesterly on Sunday around 10 kt. Seas will be 2-4 feet. Outlook... Sunday...Winds and seas will stay below SCA criteria. Sunday Night through Monday...SCA conditions are expected and gale conditions are possible behind a cold front Sunday Night that will also bring an abrupt shift to northwesterly winds. There is a 20 to 40% chance that gale force conditions will develop in this period. Tuesday...wind and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Tuesday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions are likely with wind gusts up to 30 KT and elevated seas up to 8 ft on the coastal waters. While guidance suggests there is up to a 30% chance for gale force gusts, especially Wednesday, the wind direction is unfavorable for getting gales during the cold season, so have kept the forecast below gale criteria for now. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As a result of the Full Moon on December 4th, some minor tidal flooding will be possible during the daytime high tides through Sunday. This is primarily for the NJ and DE coasts and lower Delaware Bay. It does appear that tidal departures will increase slightly Saturday into Sunday, increasing the chance for minor tidal flooding especially for the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts, including parts of the lower Delaware Bay. However, latest guidance keeps water levels below advisory thresholds. No tidal flooding is expected elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Very cold Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. At this point, we aren't forecasting to break any record lows. Below are the record lows for December 9. SITE RECORD/YEAR Allentown (ABE) 7/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 6/1968 AC Marina (55N) 5/1876 Philadelphia (PHL) 6/1876 Wilmington (ILG) 13/1960 Reading (RDG) 0/1989 Trenton (TTN) 12/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) -1/1902 Georgetown (GED) 10/1976 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cooper/Johnson NEAR TERM...Cooper SHORT TERM...Cooper/Johnson LONG TERM...Cooper/Johnson AVIATION...Cooper/Johnson MARINE...Cooper/Johnson TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... ####018007464#### FXUS61 KRLX 061853 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 153 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few rain or snow showers Sunday afternoon, with more widespread wintry mix changing to all snow Sunday night into Monday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM Saturday... Mostly cloudy conditions are noted over the area, with a few breaks in the various levels of cloud decks. After morning low stratus cleared out, we maintained a broken altostratus deck, and now lower clouds are starting to work back into the area from the west. We should stay on the dry side through tonight, but a weak shortwave crossing Ohio and PA late this afternoon or this evening could bring some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle to northern WV, depending on temperature. Some light snow is possible in a few spots if clouds can get over the -10C level, but forecast soundings mainly had the saturated layer staying below that. The shallowest of shortwaves will slide across the eastern Great Lakes and central Appalachians Sunday afternoon, which could bring some isolated and temperature-dependent rain/snow showers to the CWA. However, the better moisture availability and forcing with this feature looks to stay north of our area, so Sunday afternoon's precip looks to be limited in scope. Forecast highs in the low to mid-40s would indicate that any lower elevation precip is likely to be rain, while a mix or all snow is possible in higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... What the Sunday afternoon clipper disturbance lacks in moisture across our area, it will partially make up for with a decent shot of cold air surging into the CWA behind its cold front Sunday night into Monday. Lows Monday morning will be mainly in the 20s, with some teens in the mountains. Highs on Monday won't budge much as N'ly winds persist with the cold advection, only rising to the low to mid-30s in lower elevations. A second weak disturbance will follow the first one on a more southerly track Sunday night into Monday, as a broad and weak low develops along the Gulf Coast and then transits eastward and off the Southeast Coast. As it does so, the upper- level trough is forecast to draw some moisture north towards the central Appalachians, bringing some rain and snow showers later Sunday evening that transition to all snow overnight into Monday morning. This second system will bring more widespread precip than the Sunday afternoon disturbance, but likely mainly south of the Ohio River. Lowlands of central and southern WV are forecast to see mainly an inch, with up to around 2 inches possible for the southern WV mountains down into our VA counties. As the base of the trough slides east of the CWA Monday night, any lingering mountain snow showers Monday evening should quickly end. High pressure sliding east of our area will combine with disturbances pushing into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday to bring increasing S-SW'ly breezes and highs surging back into the 40s for most of the lowlands and 30s in the mountains. Some patches of sunshine will also be possible on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... A more potent clipper system is forecast to swing from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night, pushing a cold front across the CWA in the evening or overnight hours. Ahead of the cold front, warm advection will continue on gusty SW'ly winds, with highs ranging from the mid-30s to lower 40s in the mountains to the mid-40s to near 50 degrees in lower elevations. As a result, when precip starts to push into the area around midday or early afternoon on Wednesday, it should start off as rain for everywhere except the mountains. A parade of disturbances may then impact the CWA through the end of the week, but with significant model uncertainty on the track and timing of the features, and as a result a wide spread on potential temperature scenarios. While it seems likely that there will be a significant cool-down between Thursday and Saturday of next week, how fast and how cold remain unclear. For example, for Charleston's high on Friday, the NBM probabilistic data has an 10-degree 25th/75th percentile spread, with a 20 degree 10th/90th spread. That is quite impressive and is a good illustrator of the uncertainty. All of that is to say that the precip type forecast for later next week will be highly dependent on the speed and severity of any dropping temperatures. So take the p-type forecast later next week with at least a few grains of salt and expect potentially significant changes as we get closer and the models hopefully come into better agreement and lock onto a clear solution one way or the other. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Saturday... Several different cloud decks are noted across the area, with most of the area VFR under an altostratus cloud deck, but a new lower stratocu deck is working in from the west, returning some sites to at least intermittent MVFR ceilings. As we go through the afternoon and evening, most sites are forecast to go back to MVFR ceilings. Our southwestern sites of CRW and HTS may come back to VFR flight category by midnight or before, but the other TAF terminals may not break out of the MVFR stratus until closer to 12z Sunday or even a bit after. A stray bit of drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible for CKB or EKN this evening or early overnight, but confidence in that is low and it would likely be quite fleeting, so no mention was made in the TAF as of now. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of transition from VFR to MVFR today, and then back to VFR later tonight could vary by a couple hours. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain/snow Sunday night into Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...FK ####018004689#### FXUS64 KMAF 061854 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Gusty winds expected into early this evening (especially in the Guadalupes/Delaware Mountains). There remains the potential of patchy blowing dust across portions of southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and around the Davis Mountains. - After a weak front Saturday night/Sunday morning, a warming trend develops early next week. Precipitation chances are nil through the extended. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 WV imagery this afternoon show an upper level trough extending from the southeast CONUS to off the Baja coast, running right through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at 18Z. At the surface, leeside troughing on the Front Range has induced southwest to west winds across the area. High winds are expected in the Guadalupes/Delawares this afternoon, and this will add a downslope warming component to today's highs, which should top out a pleasant 8-10 F above normal. Tonight, the trough moves very little...slightly east-southeat at best. Despite mostly clear skies, higher dewpoints, elevated mixing, and today's highs will yield warmer overnight minimums... around 5-10 F above normal. A weak cold front arrives after midnight, but doesn't look to have much effect on lows. However, it will put a dent in Sunday's highs, shaving around 5-6 F off today's highs. Sunday night, surface winds will veer back to return flow, but they'll be light, combining with mostly clear skies to promote efficient radiational cooling and allowing overnight lows within a degree or so of normal. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Northwesterly flow resides aloft Monday as a trough departs to the east and a ridge begins to build to the west. Much of the upcoming week looks to feature upper-level troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the western CONUS. This keeps most of the cold air at bay and allows us to see a warming trend. Monday, winds return out of the south and southwest, resulting in highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s. Tuesday, westerly and southwesterly winds become a touch breezy as a surface low develops off the lee of the Rockies. Highs are forecast to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 40s. A weak cold front attempts to push into our area Wednesday, but becomes diffuse by the afternoon and highs still warm into the 70s. Our next cold front begins to take shape early Thursday, when a shortwave trough rolls over the northern Plains and kicks up another surface low near the lee of the Rockies. Highs Thursday warm up a few degrees more, with 70s for most and 80s spreading further into our southern counties. Cooler temperatures arrive Friday behind a cold front ushered in by the aforementioned surface low. However, long-range models are in disagreement in terms of timing for this front, whether it arrives sometime Thursday afternoon or Friday. For now, highs Friday are forecast to reach the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 955 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds this afternoon will give way to a weak cold front overnight. A few high clouds are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 39 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 38 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 47 71 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 44 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 39 56 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 35 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 33 62 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 40 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 41 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 38 63 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...99