####018007163#### FXUS61 KCLE 240611 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 211 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track east to the north of Lake Erie through Wednesday morning, pushing a cold front east across the region tonight into early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area by Wednesday night and continue to influence the weather through Friday before drifting east off the New England coastline. A warm front will lift across the local area Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM...Pre-frontal trough has exited east of the area this evening with the main cold front approaching the vicinity of Indiana and Michigan. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms has developed across portions of western and central MI ahead of the front. Anticipate this activity to weaken over the next few hours as it enters NW OH which should largely limit the overall lightning threat, though did add a brief window of slight chance thunder given a small area of around 250 J/kg MUCAPE. Previous Discussion... Showers are moving east across the area with a pre-frontal trough, however the lower levels have been quite slow to saturate so precip has largely been virga or very light at the onset. The column should continue to saturate through this evening and it will rain at all locations at some point this evening/tonight, especially as the upper trough axis approaches from the west. The trough axis and surface cold front will cross the CWA overnight before exiting to the east Wednesday morning. Cold air advection will develop behind the front and persistent upper troughing will result in continued light rain/drizzle chances across the snowbelt region through Wednesday morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph in addition to cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees will result in chilly apparent temperatures in the 30s for most of Wednesday. Surface high pressure begins to build in from the northwest Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and should see a gradual decrease in cloud cover from north to south Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. There is still potential for widespread sub-freezing overnight lows late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and the latest forecast has minimum temps in the in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the majority of the area Wednesday night. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area from Midnight until 10 AM Thursday. With that being said, there are a couple of areas of uncertainty: locations that will be influenced by the warmer Lake Erie in addition to southeastern zones. Locations along the immediate lakeshore will likely remain just above freezing, but there's some uncertainty in how far south the warming effects of Lake Erie reach; this could throw a wrench into the temperature forecast for lakeshore zones, especially northern Ashtabula and Erie (PA) counties. There is also a touch of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast for southeastern zones, roughly from Knox to Stark counties. Any lingering mid-level clouds could result in a warmer low temperature forecast due to less radiational cooling. Will continue to monitor cloud cover and temperature trends over the next 24 hours or so. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure controls the region Thursday into Friday with a warming trend expected. The warm front lifts across the region Friday night into Saturday morning with enough lift to generate showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. High Thursday in the 50's, then warming into the 60's on Friday. One last cool night Thursday night with lows in the 30's. Lows only dip into the mid 40's to mid 50's for Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The warm front should be northeast of the region at some point Saturday morning with the entire region remaining in the warm sector through Monday evening. So expect to see well above average temperatures through the long term period. It does become a bit cooler on Tuesday as a cold front moves eastward across the CWA. Chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend look to be on a downward trend Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Thinking is that a slight increase in the upper level ridge will be enough to at least limit the coverage of any thunderstorms that can develop across the area. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a cold front moves west to east across the region. There is uncertainty on its timing as jet energy ejects out of the Southern Plains. Stay tuned for some better timing on when stronger thunderstorms will be possible. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... An area of showers across western Lake Erie and Northwest Ohio will move east through 12Z ahead of a cold front that will push south across Lake Erie. Showers will generally not last more than an hour at any location, except perhaps ERI between 12-18Z. MVFR ceilings are expanding with the pre- frontal trough and it still looks like a few hour window of IFR is possible in the 12-18Z window, although not lasting that whole time. Ceilings will return to MVFR for much of the afternoon and gradually scatter from the north between 00-06Z. South to southwest winds continue at all terminals at 06Z but a wind shift to the west and eventually north will occur behind the front. Winds may occasionally gust to around 20 knots, at TOL/FDY/CLE during the late morning/afternoon on Wednesday. Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday. && .MARINE... Winds will decrease this evening across the lake as a cold front sags toward the lake. The stronger southwesterly winds that are over the western portion of the lake will drift toward the center of the lake. So will go with the current timing of the small craft advisory ending across the western basin at 4 pm. The central portion of the small craft advisory will end at 6 pm. The cold front crosses the lake overnight with northwest winds increasing in its wake. It appears the winds increase enough to build waves on Wednesday so a new small craft advisory may be needed sunrise to late afternoon. High pressure then takes control of the region Thursday into Friday. So expect easterly winds to become southerly Thursday night through Friday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...KEC MARINE...MM ####018008781#### FXUS61 KOKX 240612 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 212 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system approaches overnight and moves across the area on Wednesday. Strong high pressure then builds in Wednesday night through the end of the week. The high centered over the region on Friday gradually shifts offshore into Saturday then pushes farther south on Sunday as a low from the western Great Lakes moves into Canada. This low brings a warm front Saturday night into Sunday. We remain between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Weakening high pressure offshore continues to give way to an approaching frontal system. Mid and high level moisture increases overnight along with a southerly flow ahead of the system. Most of the night will be dry with a few showers possible in the early morning as the associated warm front moves through the area. Moisture and lift are limited and any of the showers look light. In fact, most CAMs show the activity diminishing as it moves eastward, likely due to dry low levels. Low temperatures tonight will not be as cold as recent nights with lows in the 40s across the region. Behind the warm front, a WNW-WSW flow develops late morning into the afternoon. The trailing cold front will quickly sweep across the area from NW to SE middle to late afternoon. Forecast soundings are continuing to show some surface instability. However, there are still hints of middle level capping along with dry sub cloud. For these reasons, have continued to leave thunder out of the forecast. Some isolated low topped convection may still develop in the afternoon and could contain gusty winds with the inverted V soundings/dry subcloud air. Dew points should start mixing out in the afternoon, but a more substantial drop in dew points is likely late in the afternoon and evening. The westerly component and deep mixing should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across the entire area. Wind gusts 25-30 mph are possible late in the day. Temperatures could end up around 70 degrees in the NYC metro and urban NE NJ. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Any lingering showers end by sunset with skies quickly becoming clear. The main story for Wednesday night will be the much colder air that settles over the region in response to a strong high pressure building in from southeast Canada. Temperatures are likely to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the interior and middle to upper 30s most elsewhere. Lows in the NYC metro should fall close to 40 degrees. Winds will likely remain up through the night although there is a short window early Thursday morning just before sunrise for winds to lighten across the interior. These areas have a higher probability for seeing temperatures fall below freezing. Have issued a Freeze Watch for interior S CT, Lower Hudson Valley, and W Passaic and W Bergen from 3am through 9am Thursday. Frost will not occur due to the dry air (dew points falling into the teens and low 20s). Strong high pressure will then dominate the weather Thursday into Thursday night. The center of the high settles overhead on Thursday with winds becoming light. An unseasonably cool air mass in place will lead to below normal temperatures in the 50s. Frost and freeze conditions appear likely again Thursday night into Friday morning with coldest readings inland. Modification of the air mass should lead to more low level moisture and potential frost development. Additional frost/freeze headlines may be needed. Lows range from the low 30s inland to the middle and upper 30s near the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An Omega blocking pattern becomes established on Friday, as a deep trough remains across eastern Canada into the northern Atlantic, with another trough through the Rocky Mountain region into the Plains, and a high amplitude ridge in between. As a result, systems will be slow to move eastward into the beginning of next week. And a northern Plains low will be slow to move into the ridge Sunday into Monday. With surface high pressure over the region moving offshore Saturday, there is a lot of uncertainty with the development and movement of a warm front Saturday night into Sunday, as ridging remains. This warm from will be coming from a low in the western Great Lakes as it moves into Canada to our north. Some isolated to spotty showers could for along the warm front boundary Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. A deep return flow sets up for late in the upcoming weekend and temperatures initially below normal through Saturday quickly rise to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday night into the beginning of next week. The warmest day looks to be Monday with the western interior and the NYC metro warming into the low-80s, while the rest of the region will be in the upper-to-mid 70s. Used the NBM guidance through the extended period with the exception of POPs. A weak low will attempt to bring more slight chance POPs to the area on Tuesday with a cold front. Frost headlines look less likely Friday night with the exception of the far interior. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A frontal system will approach overnight and move across today. Strong high pressure will then build in tonight. The frontal system will mainly come through the area dry with a low chance of showers, possibly even a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon. Any associated MVFR conditions will be short lived, with the best chance this morning. Southerly winds overnight will generally decrease to 10 kt or less. Winds then veer to the SW with the passage of the warm front mid to late this morning, becoming WNW by afternoon behind the cold front. G15-20kt will develop in the morning, then G20-25kt in the afternoon. Winds then veer N and diminish somewhat late this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of wind shifts with multiple frontal boundaries may vary by 1-2 hours, especially with the shift to WNW. There is low chance of a thunderstorm along the cold front this afternoon. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Late tonight: VFR with diminishing N winds. Thursday and Friday: VFR. Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Wind gusts across the lower New York Harbor have diminished to below 25 kt, and the advisory was allowed to expire. Strengthening S flow continues overnight. SCA conditions expand eastward across the ocean overnight into Wednesday. Winds will start weakening Wednesday night and especially Thursday, but ocean seas will remain elevated. The SCA remains in effect on the ocean through Wednesday night, but may need to be extended into Thursday. A weakening pressure gradient will otherwise lead to conditions below SCA levels through the end of the week. High pressure remains in control Saturday, moving offshore Saturday night, with conditions below SCA levels through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH will be higher for the first half of Wednesday, but increasing W winds in the afternoon will lead to falling RH values. A wetting rainfall is not expected. Elevated fire spread conditions may present themselves for NE NJ in the later parts of the afternoon/early evening as gusts 25-30 mph occur and RH values fall into the lower to middle 30s. Min RH values will be in the lower 20s on Thursday, but winds will be light and largely under 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NYZ067>070. NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NJZ002-103. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DS/DW NEAR TERM...BR/DS/MET/DW SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...BG/DW MARINE...BR/DS/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BR/DS ####018003079#### FXUS64 KBMX 240612 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 112 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024 A weak front will slide through the northern two-thirds of the area by the afternoon, before stalling near the I-85 corridor. There is just a slight chance at a shower/storm with the front. Most locations will remain dry though. Any activity that develops should dissipate by sunset. Once the front stalls it will lift back to the north on Thursday. A second weak disturbance will slide into the area late afternoon and provide another chance at some showers/storms. However chances remain low through the period. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s today, with 70 to mid 80s on Thursday. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Through next Monday) Issued at 320 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 Only minor adjustments were made to daily highs and lows through the extended period. Scattered rain and storm chances remain possible during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday, with exact timing to be better defined in the coming days. 12 Previous long-term discussion: (Through Monday) Issued at 348 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 The 500 mb ridge is expected to remain in control for Friday through Sunday, contributing to a rain-free forecast. Eventually a trough in the Plains should progress eastward on Monday with increasing rain chances. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024 VFR at most sites. May see some brief MVFR/IFR fog at TOI so added in a tempo here. A weak cold front moves through today with limited moisture. There could be a shower or two across the north. Chances have decreased a little with the latest runs, but still included VCSH at the northern 5 sites (EET, TCL, BHM, ANB, ASN) for the afternoon. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak front with very little rain in the form of a few showers/storms moves through this afternoon. 20 ft winds will become westerly at 6 to 8 mph, with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Another chance of showers/storms exists Thursday afternoon, with only modest increase in coverage compared to Wednesday. 20 ft winds on Thursday will become easterly at 6 to 8 mph, with minimum RH values 30 to 35 in the northeast, and above 35 percent, elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 76 48 79 56 / 20 10 10 10 Anniston 76 50 80 59 / 20 10 10 10 Birmingham 76 53 80 61 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 78 56 80 60 / 20 10 20 10 Calera 76 54 79 60 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 77 57 80 61 / 20 10 20 0 Montgomery 80 57 84 61 / 20 10 20 0 Troy 81 56 83 60 / 10 10 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...16 ####018004723#### FXUS62 KMFL 240615 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 215 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 South Florida remains entrenched in a fairly zonal upper geopotential height regime, with polar front jet stream and associated mid-latitude disturbances displaced well north of the region. As a result, little to no change in the weather regime is expected for today. Expect mild and dry conditions to continue, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailing through the day. Maximum temperatures will range from the upper 70s (east coast) into the mid 80s (interior and west coast), with overnight lows ranging from the 60s to around 70 degrees. Thursday will remain largely unchanged in terms of the expected weather regime, with the main story being a tightened pressure gradient near the surface. This will result in an uptick in wind speeds, particularly along the east coasts where gusts up to 20-25 mph will be possible. Otherwise, dry and temperate conditions prevail. Little to no fluctuation in temperatures, with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and overnight lows ranging from the 60s to 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Upper-level ridging and a prevailing surface high will dominate the regional weather pattern, maintaining mostly dry and seasonable conditions throughout the period. A tightened pressure gradient near the surface will promote breezy easterly winds, particularly along the immediate Atlantic coast where wind gusts may range from 25-30 mph at times. Isolated showers may traverse the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast over the weekend due to low- level moisture advection, with the Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) limited to around 15-20%. Easterly winds will contribute to warmer temperatures, particularly in the southwest, where afternoon highs are anticipated to reach the mid to upper 80s. Along the East Coast, temperatures will be moderated by the easterly breeze, with expected highs in the low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light east- northeast winds this morning will trend easterly by the afternoon with speeds 10-15 kts and occasional gusts to 20 kts. KAPF will likely have a wind shift to westerly in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Hazardous marine conditions have largely tapered off compared to prior days, though choppy seas may still be present - particularly over the Atlantic waters adjacent to Palm Beach County. Mostly benign conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected. Seas in the Atlantic will subside to 2-4 ft for the middle to end of the week, while seas in the Gulf will be 2 ft or less. Hazardous conditions will return late Friday and into the weekend as easterly flow strengthens. && .BEACHES... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A high risk for rip currents will continue across all Atlantic beaches today and potential linger through the week and into the upcoming weekend owing to the presence of onshore flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Minimum relative humidity values below 35 percent are possible today over portions of Interior SW Florida, in addition to the Significant Fire Potential Forecast being in the orange category. However winds should remain well below Red Flag Criteria through the day as easterly flow weakens relative to previous days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 69 82 70 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 83 67 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 81 67 82 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 79 69 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 80 69 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 80 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 81 67 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 86 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRB LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...Carr