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FXAK67 PAJK 111344

AFDAJK



Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Juneau AK

544 AM AKDT Sat Jul 11 2026



.SYNOPSIS...



Key Messages:



- A marine layer is building over the eastern half of the Gulf of

  Alaska and coastal areas. 



- Showers will diminish Saturday morning as high pressure slowly

  builds in from the west.



&&



.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system south of Haida Gwaii and one 

over far northeastern British Columbia are working in tandem to 

respectively pull and push moisture across the border into 

southeast Alaska this morning. While the one over BC looks to 

sustain itself a bit longer, the one down off Haida Gwaii looks 

to weaken and retreat southward today into Sunday. This will help

to limit showers over the region today, along with high pressure 

building in aloft. Overall this should help to gradually thin out 

cloud cover through the day Saturday, particularly over the 

northern inner channels. 



On the other hand, smoke from wildfires in Canada is also expected

to advect over the region, high enough to keep skies hazy where

they may otherwise have been clear. This smoke haze is expected to

continue into Sunday as high pressure continues to dominate the

interior. with ridging building at the surface and daytime heating

over the interior, large scale sea breeze is expected to develop

along Lynn Canal by this afternoon. For the rest of the panhandle,

outside of some localized sea breezes, winds should remain

relatively calm. 



A weak front advancing across the Gulf of Alaska Sunday will push

the ridge axis further east, causing a more southerly shift in

winds over the region. A weak trough ahead of this front could

also bring isolated light showers to the outer coast and Icy 

Strait corridor on Sunday. 



.LONG TERM... /Monday through Friday/... A low pressure system will

set up west of Anchorage and lead to a fairly wet weather pattern

for the Northern Panhandle. The highest rainfall totals through 

next next week to be from Yakutat to the West, where totals will 

likely be up to 1.5". Based on the orientation of the low, there 

could be some stronger winds early Monday morning near Icy Bay 

(up to 25 kts). 



As a low pressure stalls out to the west, it will lead to on shore 

flow and keep chances for clouds and rain in the forecast. If some 

additional clearing is able to occur, then temperatures could 

rise Thursday across the Southern Panhandle. High temperatures are

currently forecast to be in the mid-to-upper 60s, but some 70s 

are not out of the question. 



&&



.AVIATION.../ through Saturday night / A band of higher VFR clouds

for the southern panhandle, Across the central ( Kake, Petersburg

and Hydaburg) a band of IFR with ceilings below 500 ft and then 

marginal with ceiling of 1200 ti 2500 feet. In the area of the 

lower clouds isolated light rain and/or patchy below 2 miles has 

been reported this morning. Expect to see minor improvement 

through the day, as the band looses some energy and weakens. 



&&



.MARINE...

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue 

across the gulf as higher pressure moves into the area. Winds remain 

on the lighter side below 15 kts through Saturday before the next 

low pressure system moves into the western gulf. At this time, 

Sunday morning, winds will become southeasterly and increase. 

Strongest winds are anticipated over the far off shore waters and 

the northern gulf, near Kayak Island.

These areas are likely to see winds increase to 20 to 25 kts and 

remain elevated through late Sunday. Along with winds, significant 

wave heights will build to 6 to 8 ft across the gulf. Winds and seas 

will once again then diminish Monday.



Inside (Inner Channels): Light southerly winds continue across the 

inner channels. There are some areas of elevated winds of 5 to 10 

kts around Point Couverden this afternoon. These winds are likely to 

diminish with widespread winds less than 10 kts by tomorrow morning. 

An area of higher pressure then builds over the area tomorrow. This 

will keep winds on the lighter side with a few isolated areas of 

increased winds. Strongest winds are anticipated over N Lynn Canal, 

especially throughout Taiya Inlet. Taiya Inlet specifically could 

see winds increase to 20 kts with some gusty winds of 25 to 30 kts 

possible. The trend of stronger afternoon winds in N Lynn Canal will 

continue through the weekend. Otherwise winds will continue to 

remain on the lighter side through the weekend, with the localized

areas of slightly stronger winds. 





&&



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652. 



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...STJ

LONG TERM...Musall

AVIATION...Bezenek

MARINE...Bezenek



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