####018006107#### FXUS61 KGYX 061904 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 204 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure briefly builds in Sunday behind a cold front. Low pressure will quickly pass over the region Sunday evening and overnight. This will bring widespread light snow accumulations to much of the forecast area before departing Monday. An active weather pattern will feature a few more chances of precipitation heading into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light snow this morning and afternoon has pushed north and east out of the area. Dense clouds have allowed temps to remain on the cool side much of the day, and only some breaks will allow temps to jump before heading back to the teens for overnight lows. Despite the trend towards more scattered skies this afternoon, 12z HREF depicts a period of low clouds redeveloping, perhaps fog, this evening into the overnight hours. This is likely exaggerated by one or two members, but a lot of near term guidance does crash temps to the dewpoint (increased in a weak warm sector) as the sun goes down. Added moisture advection may be enough to produce shallow ground fog over snowpack. Drier air and a wind shift arrives later tonight, perhaps enough to erode this shallow fog. At this time overall confidence remains low for widespread fog. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Light snow arrives with a quick wave of low pressure Sunday evening. Snow will continue overnight into predawn Monday morning for the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected, most falling just before the Monday AM commute. Details: A fair day Sunday with little remark. Dry conditions bring temps a little closer to seasonal norms in the upper 20s and mid 30s. Guidance has come into good agreement on the next system to track across northern New England. The open wave will track across central/southern NH Sunday night, focusing much of its QPF north of Kennebunk, ME to Claremont, NH. Snow will spread into northern NH late Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage into the evening and overnight hours. Still looks to be a weak inverted trough that develops along the coast, but this likely centers around weak low pres moving into the Gulf of Maine vs. a genuine Norlun feature. Either way, it could provide an hour or two of increased snow rates along the ME coast to put down an inch or two of snow before the Monday morning commute. Most guidance begins this around Casco Bay before lifting it north into the Midcoast. While the low's transit has sped up, there may be some lingering light snow falling for the Midcoast into the lower Kennebec Valley come Monday morning, creating slick travel. Winds become NW behind the departing low, becoming breezy to start the week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Persistent troughing is expected through the extended, as an upper- level low gyrates over the Hudson Bay. This will allow for colder than average air to persist over the northeast. Perhaps the coldest of this air will arrive on Monday, as a prior cold front brings fresh northwesterly breeze brings blustery and a much colder airmass into the picture. Winds will die down in the afternoon, with mostly clear skies. This will allow for a textbook radiational cooling night Monday night, with lows dropping down to near 0F across most places in New Hampshire and Maine. Two Alberta Clippers are anticipated to move across the region in the second half of next week. The first system is anticipated to be weak and progressive, with scattered snow showers likely Tuesday night. Up to a coating of snow is possible. A more substantial clipper follows a little to the north of the previous one's footsteps, with more widespread rain and snow likely Wednesday night. This time around, snow does appear to be more confined to the mountains, with a few inches of snow possible there. The system does pull in enough warm air to keep snow accumulations mostly away from southern NH and areas closer to the coastline, though brief periods of rain and snow mix can't be ruled out along the population corridor. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Ceilings and vis improve after morning/afternoon SN. Shallow ground fog may develop this evening and overnight which could lower visibility at some interior terminals (will be watching southern NH TAF sites closely). Other than some fog, expect ceilings to be VFR tonight and Sunday. MVFR/IFR ceilings then invade with quick moving low pressure Sunday evening. This will also bring SN to reduce vis to 1 to 2 miles overnight. Improvement is expected at or shortly after 12z Mon for much of the forecast area north of PSM/COn/LEB line. Long Term...Conditions improve to VFR Monday morning, with VFR expected through Tuesday afternoon. Snow moves in Tuesday afternoon, allowing for restrictions to lower. Lower restrictions are possible through the remainder of the week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria. Winds shift NW Sunday morning as a cold front passes. Quick moving low pres enters the Gulf of Maine Monday morning, increasing winds to around 30 kts. Some gusts to gale may be attainable on the outer waters. Long Term...Near gale-force northwesterly winds are likely Monday morning with seas of 4-6ft. Winds will gradually subside Monday evening, and remaining at SCA levels and seas of 5-8ft are expected through the remainder of the extended. A brief period of below SCA threshold winds and seas is possible Tuesday morning. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cornwell SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Palmer ####018008167#### FXUS61 KRNK 061905 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 205 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold but dry weather conditions are expected to continue through Sunday as high pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic. Another storm system will move across the region Sunday night through Monday, and could bring some light rain and snow to the region. The mountains will have the best chance to receive some accumulating snow from this system, with an inch or two possible west of the Blue Ridge Monday. && .NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025 Key Message: 1. Below normal temperatures and dry weather conditions are expected to continue through Sunday. Key Message 1... Satellite imagery shows that lots of cloud cover has remained from Central/Southside Virginia into northwestern North Carolina through much of the day. Embedded within this region are pockets of low clouds and reduced visibilities. The latest high- resolution guidance continues to suggest that conditions should continue improving over this area through the rest of the afternoon, with at least partly cloudy skies possible before sunset. Tonight we'll see the center of surface high pressure, embedded in a nearly zonal flow aloft, traverse the Mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, a quick-moving perturbation in the upper flow is anticipated to move across the area as the high slides east. While increased cloud cover is expected with this feature, the lack of low- level moisture should keep conditions dry. Temperatures will be the major weather story this weekend. The diminished cloud cover and any lingering snow cover will allow temperatures to quickly fall after sunset today. Confidence is high that most places west of IH-81 could see early morning lows in the 20-25 degree range, with middle 20s anticipated elsewhere. These values are close almost 10 degrees below what we normally see in early December. Temperatures Sunday afternoon should be warmer than what we're seeing today, but will likely be tempered a bit due to the anticipated increase in cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025 Key Messages: 1. Snow likely late Sunday night into Monday morning 2. Very cold Monday night 3. Quiet under high pressure Tuesday Key Message 1... A southern stream system will lift north late on Sunday night, initially taking a warm front across the area. This will also advect in some Gulf moisture. Precipitation will begin as rain, but as cold air from the north is swept across, the atmospheric profile will change rather quickly to support a mostly snow event going into Monday morning. As the time frame of this event has slowed down in recent guidance, there is more time for the cold air advection to occur, and thus the trend has been to increase snow amounts. It is unlikely that this will be a strong, noteworthy storm, as QPF is still quite low, and snow amounts are generally between 1-2" in the mountains, and less than an inch east of the Blue Ridge, where a rain snow mix is expected to linger a bit longer into Monday. Totals and impacts will be analyzed closely leading into this event, as there has been variability in model runs, so a further increase in snow totals is not out of the question. Key Message 2... In the wake of the front moving out of the area on Monday, a significant drop in temperatures is expected for Monday night. Lows in the teens will be commonplace, with the coldest occurring near the Alleghany Highlands. Key Message 3... A relatively transient region of high pressure will suppress meteorological activity on Tuesday. Temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s, along with mostly clear skies allowing some sunshine, will aid in thawing any remaining snow or ice coverage from the previous two wintry systems. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025 Key Messages: 1. Quick moving system to potentially bring rain/snow mix to the mountains on Wed/Wed night. 2. A more robust rain/snow system possible Thursday and/or Friday. Key Message 1... Much of central to eastern CONUS will be under the regime of a longwave trough pattern with its parent low located near Hudson Bay. Within this broad flow pattern, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to pass over or north of the region. The first of these has better consistency in timing and location than the second. We are looking at a Wednesday evening crossing of the associated shortwave trough axis with cold air advection arriving shortly in its wake. Moisture associated with the system will advected into the area with the system, with rain/snow expected to be limited to primarily area along and west of the Blue Ridge, with best chances over southeast West Virginia. Precipitation is expected to spread into the area west to east during the day Wednesday, and linger across the mountains (thanks to upslope flow) through the night. A small amount of light precipitation may reach western sections of the VA/NC Piedmont. Key Message 2... There is more variability in timing and track of the second system. Additionally, some deterministic guidance offers a southern stream system becoming involved in the process, and thus and potential additional moisture sources and warm-nose low level thermal profiles. A look at the latest NCEP Ensemble 500mb geopotential heights offers a late Friday evening as the mean time frame for the passage of the next trough axis. However, there is plenty of solutions favoring as early as Thursday evening. Given the variability, our forecast will reflect only a rain versus snow forecast rather than other winter p-types. We will have increasing probabilities during the day on Thursday from west to east, with values maximizing Thursday night into early Friday. By Friday evening, we may be within the northwest flow portion of the system, helping to have the focus for any additional snow/rain primarily over the mountains. Coverage and amounts should trail off heading into Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025 Persistent Ac/Cs continues across the E parts of the forecast area this afternoon. Embedded within this larger cloud area, observational data indicates LIFR CIGs continue early this afternoon at several C/Southside VA terminals. The cloud cover has struggled to diminish over this region. The latest high- res guidance continues to suggest - and the 06/1800 UTC TAFs indicate - that flight categories should improve late this afternoon across this area with a VFR conditions possible before sunset. Overall, minimal aviation impacts are anticipated through 07/1800 UTC with a surface high sliding across the area. A quick-moving disturbance will likely thicken the Ac/Cs deck across the region by Sunday morning, but any CIGs should remain AOA 120. We could see some brief flight category reductions again toward sunrise Sunday (similar to this morning), but my confidence in the location/timing is on the low side and was left out of the TAFs attm. OUTLOOK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday night-Monday: Restrictions possible as a storm system brings S- to the area. Precipitation could begin as R- (or a R-/S- mix) before changing to S-. Monday night: Improving flight categories. Tuesday: No restrictions anticipated. Wedesday-Thursday: Restrictions becoming possible as another storm system impacts the region. R- and S- will be possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB NEAR TERM...DB SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DB ####018008133#### FXUS61 KBGM 061909 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 209 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered snow showers expected along and north of the Mohawk Valley this afternoon and into the overnight hours. The weather pattern will remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances for light snow over the next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A weak shortwave moving has kicked off scattered snow showers across the region. Most of the radar returns over our area are not reaching the ground as dewpoint depressions are 10-15 degrees across the area. A few heavier showers have allowed quick bursts of snow to fall across the northern counties. This will continue through the afternoon. The shortwave trough axis will pass through the area this evening, bringing more of a westerly wind across the area and generating some light lake effect snow showers along and north of the Mohawk Valley. Snow amounts will be light, with a trace to a few tenths of an inch of snow falling for most of the area. Northern Oneida county could see up to 1.5 inches of snow if we can get a few hours of steady lake effect showers tonight. Lake effect showers will dissipate tonight as winds shift to more SWerly as another trough approaches from the west. A shortwave and associated weak surface low will pass over the region Sunday afternoon, bringing scattered snow showers mostly along and north of the Southern Tier. The highest chances for snow looks to be over the northern counties of our CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. This system looks to be a quick hitter with weak moisture availability so snowfall amounts will be light. The northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county should see around 1-2 inches of snow, with areas south to the Southern Tier seeing a trace to an inch of snow. Temperatures today and Sunday will top out in the low to mid 30s, with today being slightly warmer. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 20s in the valleys with mid to upper teens across higher elevations. Sunday night will see a sharp drop in temps behind the departing low pressure system with lows falling into the low to mid teens across NEPA and stretching NW into the the Finger Lakes. The rest of the area will see temps in the mid to upper single digits with northern Oneida county falling to near 0. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will slowly transit the area Monday into Tuesday. This will keep us dry but very cold as the mid level ridge and surface high push cold arctic air overhead. Highs on Monday will struggle to reach 20 across CNY, with NEPA in the low 20s. Overnight will be the coldest of the week as temps will bottom out in the low to mid single digits across the entire area. The northern Finger Lakes will be in the upper single digits and higher elevations in the Catskills and northern Oneida county will be a few degrees below 0. Tuesday will see a warm up as winds shift to SWerly ahead of another approaching shortwave. Highs east of I-81 will remain in the mid to upper 20s while west of I-81 will climb into the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures will be non diurnal and not expected to cool much Tuesday night as continued SW flow pushes warm air into the region. Temps Tuesday night should remain about as warm as they were in the afternoon. Snow showers will return Tuesday afternoon as a weak open wave pushes through the region. Isentropic uplift will drive these showers, with the bulk of the showers expected to be north of the Southern Tier Tuesday afternoon and overnight. 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The overall pattern does not change much this week, with a ridge off the west coast of Canada and a trough over the eastern portion of Canada. This pattern allows Alberta clippers to push into the region with cold air usually in trail. This pattern will produce the periods of snow discussed above, and this will continue to drive clippers across the region through the end of the week. The first clipper of this period looks to push through Wed. Precip currently looks to be a mix of rain and snow thanks to the warm air advection that took place before this system arrived. Lake effect showers should develop behind the system Wednesday night as it exits to the east. Another clipper will be fast on its heals, moving into the area Thursday night/Friday morning. This one could be a little more interesting as guidance wants to dig the trough farther south through the Ohio River Valley, allowing the surface low to pass us to the S and E and tap into the jet stream which will be over the eastern seaboard. With the expected colder air in place from the clipper that went through on Thursday, an all snow event could develop. We will be monitoring this development over the next several days. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to persist at most of our taf sites through the rest of this afternoon. RME will have a chance for light snow showers and tempo MVFR restrictions through 22Z, SYR is forecast to see CIGs lower to MVFR around 20z. ITH sees MVFR CIGs next, as the lower cloud bases drop south by around 23z here, then around 01-02z at ELM and BGM, respectively. AVP is expected to remain VFR through this entire taf period. Overnight restrictions and cloud bases are somewhat uncertain as two weak lake effect bands (of clouds, flurries and light snow showers) set up, generally west to east across the area (270-280 degree flow). This type of pattern should act to keep MVFR fuel alternate CIGs in place over RME, starting around 00z and continuing all night, into much of Sunday morning, before slightly lifting back to MVFR. Can't rule out some occasional MVFR type vsby restrictions here in light snow showers overnight, but not enough confidence yet to include in the TAF. The forecast for SYR is continued MVFR ceiling restrictions all night, and right through the end of the TAF period Sunday afternoon...with only minor cloud base height fluctuations. ITH and BGM are forecast to end up between the bands of lower lake effect cloud heights, returning to low end VFR after 04-06z, through the overnight and into early Sunday morning. Then, MVFR clouds are forecast to overspread these terminals from the southwest by the mid-morning hours Sunday out ahead of the next incoming weather system. ELM is progged to remain in the southern lake effect MVFR cloud band all night, before additional MVFR clouds overspread this terminal from the southwest Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours. Light southwest winds today, 5 to 10 kts most of the time. Winds turn westerly overnight and remain light. Winds then shift south- southwest Sunday morning and gradually increase heading into the afternoon hours, up to 10 kts. Outlook... Sunday Afternoon and Night...Restrictions possible as a frontal system and scattered snow showers approaches the region; especially NY terminals Monday...Becoming mainly VFR, but lingering restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals due to lake effect clouds and/or light snow showers in the morning. Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, especially in the afternoon and overnight. Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system approaches the region with snow and rain showers. Thursday...Restrictions possible with scattered to numerous snow showers expected across the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...DK/MJM