####018009837#### FXUS61 KBGM 101952 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 252 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will continue to bring periods of snow and lower elevations rain to the area into this evening. Much colder air arrives late tonight into Thursday, with more scattered snow showers and localized heavy lake effect snow across the NY Thruway corridor. Well below average temperatures continue late this week into the upcoming weekend, along with chances for snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A 990mb surface low will pass north of the area, over Lake Ontario this evening. Strong warm air advection and breezy south winds will continue south of this low pressure center over our forecast area. Widespread light to moderate snow is falling across the CWA this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Some rain is starting to mix in for the deeper valleys as high temperatures eventually reach the mid 30s. There are pockets of heavy snow, which may continue for the next few hours over the higher elevations east of I-81, due to terrain enhancement and upsloping effects. Additional snowfall amounts through the mid to late evening hours will be generally less than 1 inch west of I-81, with 0.5 to 3 inches east of I-81; and localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches over the highest elevations of the Catskills and Tug Hill plateau of northern Oneida. Winter weather headlines will continue, with no changes, except: the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Onondaga, Madison and S. Oneida counties from 1 AM Thursday Through 7 AM Friday morning. A strong cold front moves through late this evening and into the first part of the overnight. Temperatures quickly fall behind this front, with 850mb temps reaching -10C after midnight. Surface temperatures also fall back below freezing into the 20s by late evening, or just after midnight for our NE PA/Catskills zones. There will be a brief period of enhanced snow shower activity on the back side of the departing surface low, especially for Central NY and the northern tier of NE PA, with additional light snow accumulations expected ( < 1"). Deeper mid level moisture wraps back into the lake Ontario region of CNY toward daybreak Thursday, and this will reinvigorate the lake effect snow machine. A Georgian Bay connection appears likely to set up on Thursday, aimed along our I- 90 corridor from the Syracuse metro and to just south of Utica much of the time. The lake effect snow band will certainly oscillate north and south at times, so the exact location that sees the heaviest totals is still somewhat uncertain. The 12z NAM BUFKIT sounding data is showing and exceptional setup for heavy lake effect snow at SYR Thursday afternoon, with moisture depth up to 15k ft agl, a deep snow growth layer and cross hair signature of Omega centered within that snow growth layer. This type of setup usually yields snow to liquid ratios of 20-25:1 or higher and snowfall rates up around 2"/hr in the core of the lake effect snow band. This added confidence to upgrade the Winter Storm Watches to Lake Effect Snow Warnings here. Total snowfall from the lake effect is expected to range from about 6-12 inches across the Syracuse metro area, east along and south of I-90 in Madison county, then into far southern Oneida county. The heaviest snow and snow totals are expected to remain south of the Mohawk Valley in Oneida county; in locations such as Waterville, Paris and Clinton. For the Mohawk Valley (Utica- Rome area) current forecast indications are for 2 to 5 inches from late tonight through Friday morning. The 500mb low stalls, or slowly moves east just north of the NY border into northern New England through the day on Thursday, with even colder air around -15C at 850mb filtering into the area. Deep moisture up to almost 500mb remains in place for a sustained period of lake effect/enhanced snow over Central NY. Conditions become favorable for scattered snow showers and squalls to move across most of the forecast area, even down in NE PA heading into late Thursday morning and Thursday afternoon. Low level lapse rates reach 9.5C/KM in the 0-2km agl layer, along with MUCAPE up to 100 J/kg, and boundary layer wind gusts up to 35 kts expected. The snow squall parameter is lighting up over the region, including NE PA. Snowfall amounts should be light for the Twin Tiers and NE PA, but it could come down quick, creating snow covered roads and icy conditions at times. High temperatures are only progged to reach into the 20s Thursday afternoon. West-NW winds will be quite breezy to windy, sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph expected. For areas that received a significant amount of new snow (a few inches or more) blowing and drifting snow could certainly be an issue. The lake effect snow continues Thursday night as the upper level low gradually pulls east over northern Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes late at night. Moisture depth gradually decreases and lowers Thursday night, down to around 800mb after midnight. This may start to bring snowfall rates down, but the steady lake effect snow should continue, while again oscillating back and forth along or just south of I-90 much of the night. The snow band could occasionally make its way south into even southern Onondaga and northern Cortland counties; however it still appears to mainly setup across north- central Onondaga and Madison counties...extending into southern Oneida as the overall flow remains between 290-300 degrees. Outside of the main lake effect areas it will be partly cloudy and cold, with winds gradually diminishing. Lows reach into the 10s areawide. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main concerns in this period will be the lingering lake effect snow showers over far northern portions of the area into Friday. The lake effect snow band could become reinvigorate for a time on Friday across northern Onondaga and NW Oneida counties. There remains uncertainty on this prospect though, so did increase PoPs, QPF and snow amounts some, but not too significantly yet, as we evaluate the latest model trends. Otherwise, temperatures remain well below average for this entire short term period, with lows in the 10s and highs in the 20s to perhaps low 30s in the valleys. The next concern will be for a weak weather system spreading better chances for snow showers or some light snow Saturday into Saturday night as a weak upper level wave zips across the Midwest, upper Ohio Valley then into our area. This feature does not have a lot of moisture or even much amplitude aloft with it, at least in the current model guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Deep and cold upper level low swings into the area on Sunday into Monday, with 1000-500mb thicknesses down close to 504dm and 850mb temperatures falling to -18C Sunday afternoon. This will keep our weather very cold, blustery with scattered to numerous snow showers around. Wind chills could easily fall into the single digits, if not below zero in some areas Sunday night into Monday. After this main upper level lows moves by, there will be another clipper system with light snow potential heading into early next week. Temperatures remain below average levels into Tuesday next week, before a moderating trend is expected by the middle of next week. There is fairly good model agreement that the next system arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night or Thursday next week. The details on thermal profiles and precipitation types remain uncertain this far out in time; but it could range from rain, to a mix and maybe a little snow. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow this afternoon continues to bring widespread restrictions to all terminals, but restrictions have generally been fluctuating between MVFR and IFR. Snow may mix with, or even change to rain later this afternoon, which would improve visby restrictions somewhat. While the most widespread rain and snow will end by this evening, some lingering snow showers and low clouds will remain, which will result in lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions. KAVP will likely return to VFR after 10Z Thursday, but restrictions will otherwise likely remain through the end of the TAF period (at least through 18Z Thursday). Lake effect snow will also develop after midnight tonight and persist through Thursday. This will result in a return to IFR-or- worse visby restrictions, with the greatest chance being at KSYR. Outlook... Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Restrictions likely in lake effect snow showers and squalls, especially at KSYR and KRME. Friday through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ017-018- 036-037-044>046-057-062. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...BJG ####018007585#### FXUS63 KJKL 101953 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 253 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southwesterly wind gusts to between 30 and 35 mph are likely this afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible. Lake Wind Advisories are in effect for the Cave Run Lake and Lake Cumberland areas. - Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable accumulations and localized travel impacts tonight into Thursday morning. The greatest snowfall accumulation and impact will be above 1,500 feet ASL where a Winter Weather Advisory is currently in effect. - A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning. - A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the region for this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 253 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 At current, a band of stratiform rain is moving across the area from the northwest, southeast towards the VA state line. Light to moderate rain is falling with this band and temperatures ahead of this rain remain in the upper 40s to near 50, while temperatures across southern Indiana, Ohio, and Northern Kentucky have already fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s. This cold front will continue to drop temperatures through this afternoon and evening, leading to Low temperatures in the upper 20s by Thursday morning. Over the next several hours, behind this band of rain, conditions will have to be carefully monitored for snow squall potential, starting around 9 PM through the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Conditions look at least plausible for snow bands to form, as winds become more northwesterly later this evening. Upslope snows are favored in this flow regime, along with lake-enhanced snows from Lake Michigan. The Snow Squall Parameter takes into account moisture in the lowest 2 kilometers, instability, by measuring the decrease in equivalent potential temperature (theta-e), and wind speed in the lowest 2 kilometers. A value of 1 or greater is said to indicate favorable conditions for snow squalls to exist. Looking at multiple short term CAM models such as the RAP13, the HRRR, and the NAM12, each model have a Snow Squall Parameter of greater than 1 across parts of the CWA, mainly east of a line extending from Lexington to London. In general, snow amounts should remain under an inch anywhere outside the current advisory areas. For within the winter weather advisories, under an inch in valleys, with up to 1 inch at elevations above 1,500 feet. For Letcher and Harlan counties, up to 2 inches are forecast, with localized 2-4 inch accumulations at elevations above 2,000 feet on and adjacent to Big Black Mountain. If a snow squall were to develop, areas within the squall could expect breif but intense snowfall causing near zero visibility and high snow fall rates leading to quick accumulations. Thursday, flurries may linger through the morning as the Wednesday system departs the area. Skies remain overcast with westerly winds generally under 10 mph. Temperatures will generally remain in the 30s through the day, with the next system quickly approaching Thursday evening through Friday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 326 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025 The forecast period commences with the approach of an Alberta Clipper, tracking southeast toward the Commonwealth. At the onset of the forecast, this surface low is anticipated to be traversing the Central Plains. Analysis of forecast wind patterns and isotherms suggests that the warm front will remain south of the area, and as this system tracks from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, the forecast area will be situated within the precipitation shield north of the warm frontal boundary. Deterministic models and their ensemble members exhibit strong consensus regarding this systems trajectory across Missouri into Kentucky before its eventual northeastward ejection toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Given this path, the forecast area is expected to be bisected by the crucial 540 dam critical thickness line. Although the precise location of this boundary is subject to spatial and temporal shifts with subsequent model cycles, the overall trend indicates a north-to- south split in p-types across the CWA. The northern half of the CWA will likely experience accumulating snow, while a wintry mix is anticipated along the freezing line, transitioning to all rain further to the south. Providing exact accumulation values for the northern CWA is premature; however, the current forecast supports the potential need for Winter Weather Advisories from Thursday night through Friday morning to address the snow hazard. Following the departure of the first system, a weak surface high pressure is forecast to build back into the area. Model guidance maintains consistency regarding a subsequent Clipper system tracking through the central CONUS, reaching the CWAs vicinity by late Saturday night into Sunday. PoP is expected to increase Saturday afternoon; however, guidance for this second system is generally more northerly, suggesting the heaviest precipitation will be concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio River. Nonetheless, isolated light accumulations across the northern CWA cannot be entirely ruled out through Sunday morning. A cold surface high-pressure system will subsequently build into the region behind the departing low, ushering in some of the coldest temperatures of the season thus far through the early part of the succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, preceding the approach of another system toward the end of the forecast period. In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two distinct Clipper systems, one from Thursday night into Friday and the second Saturday night into Sunday. Both systems are forecast to bring periods of light snow accumulation. Strong surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on Sunday, driving cold temperatures down to the upper single digits and mid-teens. A notable warmup ahead of the next system is forecast to commence by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025 A cold front moving in from the northwest continues to spread rain showers southeastward to the VA/KY border and ceilings have fallen to MVFR. Rain showers transition to snow this evening and overnight and a brief squall cannot be ruled out. Strong westerly winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts slowly diminish this evening and overnight. Breif periods of IFR conditions can't be ruled out with any snow squall type bands this evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052- 060-079-080-083-084-106. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ086-087-110-113-115>117-120. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118. && $$ SHORT TERM...GINNICK LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GINNICK ####018010639#### FXUS61 KPHI 101954 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 254 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks by to our north through the rest of today with its cold front crossing our region overnight tonight. High pressure builds in to our south Thursday as low pressure continues to depart through Atlantic Canada. A series of weak inconsequential disturbances move through Friday into early Saturday. A somewhat stronger system may affect the area with some snow Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure may form along an arctic cold front as it moves south and eastward through the area. Arctic high pressure will then dominate our weather to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A clipper system over the Great Lakes continues its move north and east across the Northeast and through New England tonight. Resultant precip across the region this afternoon will continue pushing east ahead of an advancing cold front that will pass through tonight. The greatest risk for snow remains across the Poconos with a wintry mix still possible across the high elevations on the Lehigh Valley and northwestern NJ, though the risk has diminished given the precip did not begin until this afternoon. Elsewhere, precipitation will remain primarily rain and taper off late this afternoon and through the early evening hours. The cold front moves through tonight and will be mostly dry as it pushes through. Behind the front, however, WNW winds pick up again and usher in a cold airmass. Lows will fall into the upper teens for the Poconos with temps in the 20s to around 30 elsewhere. WNW winds ramp up to around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Resultant wind chills will fall into the single digits across the Poconos and into the teens and 20s. elsewhere. Gusty W-WNW winds will persist on Thursday, ramping up to 15-20 mph with frequent gusts up to 30-35 mph during the afternoon. This will continue to support strong cold air advection across the region, keeping afternoon highs in the teens and 20s with only a few locations across the Philly Metro and Delmarva touching 30. While most of the region will see a dry, cold, and windy Thursday, this weather pattern is very favorable for the potential for snow showers and possibly snow squalls streaming in from the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings show steepening low-level lapse rates along with a stream of low-level moisture advecting in from the Great Lakes. High res guidance shows the potential for snow showers and snow squalls developing across northeast PA and northern NJ. High confidence for snow squalls are around Carbon and Monroe Counties in PA with the potential extending across the rest of the I-80 corridor into the Lehigh Valley and northern NJ. Also can't fully rule out a quick snow shower or snow squall as far south as the I-78 corridor. While total snowfall accumulation may not be impressive, the gusty winds, low visibilities, and potential for flash freezes make snow squalls incredibly dangerous for anyone on the road! && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The weather pattern through the short term will continue to be dominated by a broad upper level trough over eastern North America keeping temperatures below average. For Thursday night, deep low pressure will continue to move northward through Atlantic Canada as high pressure moves across the SE US. The pressure gradient between these two systems will result in continuing gusty winds into early evening but the winds should gradually diminish with time. However they will not go calm and should still be at around 10 mph out of the west by Friday morning. Lows will generally be in the low to mid 20s (teens over NW NJ and the southern Poconos) but the wind chill will make it feel several degrees colder than this. Friday through Friday night, there will be a series of weak disturbances moving through the upper level flow and these could bring a few flurries to the area at times but nothing significant is expected. The highest POPs are still for Friday night but even then POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent. Otherwise expect considerable cloud cover around Friday through Saturday with below average temperatures. Highs Friday will be mainly in the 30s with temperatures warming by several degrees into Saturday ahead of the next cold front. Lows Friday night will range from the mid/upper teens north to the 20s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The overall weather pattern doesn't change much to start the long term as yet another blast of arctic air is slated to move move in for the end of the weekend into the new week. The other main story will be the next in a series of clipper type systems that could bring a little snow for Saturday into early Sunday. For Saturday night into Sunday, a deepening upper level trough moves from the Great Lakes towards the east coast. This will occur as an arctic front moves southward into the region. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that a wave of low pressure may try to form along this boundary as it reaches the mid Atlantic which could bring at least parts of the area some light snow. The time frame for this if it occurs would be Saturday night into Sunday morning. It needs to be stressed though that this 3 to 4 days out and there remains a large spread in our forecast guidance regarding this system as there are several moving pieces. Some guidance moves the cold front though quickly and barely develops the wave at all which would mean we'd just get some flurries. Other guidance indicates a low forming near or just south of the area bringing a general 1 to 3 inches of snow for much of our forecast area. This would be the snowiest case scenario for the I-95 corridor and points south as there's even model guidance developing a stronger wave meaning warm air advection associated with it would result in mainly rain near the coastal plain with accumulating snow staying mainly N/W of the I-95 corridor. Given this uncertainty, we stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) for the long term forecast. This results in roughly 40 to 50 percent POPs for some light snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Once the front passes offshore by midday Sunday it will be quite cold and breezy. Lows Saturday night look to be mainly in the 20s with highs Sunday only a few degrees warmer than this...mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s. However winds Sunday into sunday night will be NW at least 10 to 15 gusting up to 20-30 mph. This will result in wind chills in the teens during the day Sunday and as low as the single digits Sunday night! Monday remains very cold and continuing at least somewhat breezy as the arctic high builds in to our south while low pressure continues to pull away through the Canadian Maritimes. Highs will be mainly in the 20s to low 30s but with the wind chill it will feel more like the teens to low 20s. It should at least be partly sunny and dry. High pressure looks to dominate heading into the middle of next week bringing continuing cold and dry weather. There will be some moderation in temperatures but it will still remain below average. By Wednesday highs look to range from the mid 30s north to the low to mid 40s south. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR for the next hour or so before precip arrives with MVFR conditions west to east this afternoon. Mainly RA, but a brief period of -RASN or -SN across RDG/ABE cannot be ruled out. High chance of snow further north and west. For KTTN- KPNE- KPHL- KILG, VFR, lowering to MVFR after 20Z in RA. For KMIV/KACY...Conds should remain VFR throughout the day, though brief MVFR conds possible late in the day in RA. S-SW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence overall. Tonight...Any MVFR conds lift to VFR from 03Z-06Z, then VFR. SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W-NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after 06Z. Moderate confidence overall. Thursday...VFR overall. A few snow showers possible near mainly KABE in the afternoon and evening. West-northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Low confidence in snow shower potential, but high confidence overall. Outlook... Thursday night...VFR but still some wind gusts of 20-30 knots possible into the early evening. Friday through Saturday...VFR with no significant weather expected. Saturday night through Sunday....A period of sub-VFR conditions and some snow possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. West to west- northwest winds may gust to 20-25 knots during the day Sunday into Sunday night. Monday...VFR with no significant weather expected. && .MARINE... Gale Warnings over the coastal waters remain up through this evening for strong southwesterly flow. Winds across all marine zones will diminish to SCA criteria overnight and into Thursday morning, but Gale conditions are expected to return during the daytime hours of Thursday into the evening as WNW winds ramp up behind a cold front. Marine headlines will be adjusted tonight when winds are expected to diminish into SCA criteria. Seas 6-10 feet this evening will diminish to 3 to 6 feet Thursday afternoon. Outlook... Thursday night...Gales Thursday evening diminishing some overnight. Friday through Friday night...Conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory levels. Saturday and Sunday...Small Craft Advisory probable. Gale force wind gusts possible, mostly during Sunday into Sunday night. Monday...Small Craft Advisory level conditions likely. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ054- 055-060>062. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons NEAR TERM...MJL/MPS SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/MPS MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MPS