####018003798#### FXUS64 KTSA 230025 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 725 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 724 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 No major changes made to going forecast this evening. Overnight lows were tweaked upward a bit based on latest guidance and expectation of sfc winds staying up all night. If the wind drops off enough in the sheltered areas, temps could drop into the 40s. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with passing high cloud. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 South winds will continue tonight, resulting in milder overnight lows. Given the dry low level airmass, any areas that shelter from winds will again be rather chilly, though not so much as this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Further warming anticipated Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The boundary is expected to be near I-44 corridor just before 00z, with isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected along the front late Tuesday afternoon, mainly NW AR and far NE OK. Some expansion in coverage is depicted by most guidance Tuesday night as the front slowly moves south, before eventually stalling near the Red River early Wed morning. Frontal zone should remain fairly active Wed/Thu as it eventually lifts north as a warm front in response to flow becoming more southwesterly with time. For the most part convection should remain elevated during this period, but a few strong or marginally severe storms possible by Wed night into Thursday as low level moisture profiles improve. The front will result in cooler temps for a couple of days, and if precip remains widespread enough and arrives early, Wed high temps could end up cooler than forecast. Moving toward the later part of the week into the weekend, the pattern remains very active while likely becoming more conducive to severe weather, just in time for the most climatologically favored time of year. A strong initial upper low is forecast to eject into the plains by Friday with continued expansion of the warm sector from later Thursday into Friday. This looks to be followed rather quickly by another strong system this weekend. While specific timing of features remains in question, there is at least some degree of potential for a multi-day severe weather threat in the plains, with Friday and Saturday currently the most favored days for our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Will continue with a WS remark at all sites from 05z-13z. VFR TAF elements will prevail through the entire period at all sites, though a cold front will push into NE OK after 21z, and will include a windshift at KBVO at 22z. Further south of the boundary, gustier winds in the morning will begin to relax some during the afternoon as the front draws closer. Will not include any precip mention with this issuance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 55 81 54 69 / 0 10 20 50 FSM 49 80 59 72 / 0 10 30 40 MLC 54 79 59 72 / 0 10 30 50 BVO 52 79 49 68 / 0 10 10 40 FYV 49 78 52 70 / 0 20 30 40 BYV 51 77 51 69 / 0 30 20 20 MKO 52 78 57 69 / 0 10 30 50 MIO 53 76 48 69 / 0 20 10 30 F10 53 79 57 69 / 0 10 30 60 HHW 49 75 60 75 / 0 0 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...23