####018005513####
FXUS63 KJKL 190656

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

256 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A cold front will approach tonight and pass through the area on

  Friday, bringing showers/thunderstorms for most if not all

  locations.



- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the

  cold front and carry through the first part of next week.



- Areas of frost will be possible in some locations Sunday morning

  and again Monday morning.



- Another cold front is forecast for late Tuesday through

  Wednesday morning, bringing another round of rain along with a 

  possible thunderstorm. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1204 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024



Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends.

This led to minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and a

lowering of min T for some of the eastern deeper valley locations.

Convection is occurring portions of central KY and west. Guidance

and upstream trends suggest convection entering the CWA over the 

next 3 to 5 hours. Enough instability may be present for gusty

winds from a cell or two overnight. 



UPDATE Issued at 850 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024



Temperatures in some areas, especially eastern valley locations 

were dropping off more quickly than forecast. Hourly temperature

grids were adjusted based on these trends and min temperatures

still appear on track. A stray shower cannot be completely ruled 

out this evening in the Lake Cumberland vicinity per some CAM 

runs, but more widespread activity will hold off until the 

overnight hours. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 435 PM EDT THU APR 18 2024



Surface low pressure was over the mid Mississippi Valley late

today, with a cold front trailing southwest into TX. A warm front

extended east from the low, through KY. Higher dew points are

making a comeback with passage of the warm front. Thunderstorms

are developing near the cold front and in some locations in the

warm sector in the lower Mississippi Valley. Models are in good

agreement for the low tracking east northeast to OH by Friday

morning and its cold front entering the JKL forecast area. The

leading edge of showers and thunderstorms developing to our west 

and southwest makes it through eastern KY late tonight and Friday

morning. Considering the timing during the min in diurnal 

instability and only modest shear, the severe weather threat will 

be limited.



The cold front will be exiting to the southeast late Friday, and 

cooler and drier air will start to make its way into the region 

behind the front on Friday into Friday night. Clouds will

eventually clear, and that will set us up for a much cooler 

night, with some valleys potentially seeing mid to upper 30s by

dawn on Saturday.



.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)

Issued at 256 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024



The period begins with the are the base of a flattened trough, with 

zonal flow, that'll slowly eject off to the east through the 

overnight Saturday into Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will 

continue to nudge into the region allowing for dry weather for first 

part of the period. However, the area will be on the backside of an 

exiting trough and cold front with CAA occurring through the early 

part of next week. Surface high pressure, coupled with clear skies 

and CAA, areas of near freezing temperatures and frost chances will 

increase Sunday night and again Monday night.



Temperatures will be on the cooler side to start the period but as 

an upper-level wave moves across Canada, upper-level flow will back 

to the southwest allowing for temperatures to gradually warm through 

the middle of next week. As the associated surface wave moves across 

the Great Lakes, a cold front extending southwest through the Ohio 

Valley will gradually approach the area for the middle of next week. 

Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and head of the front 

but with frontal timing expected to be late Tuesday night and into 

the day Wednesday, severe thunderstorms chances look to be limited. 

Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the 

70s before cold frontal passage lowers them back into the mid-60s 

for the remainder of the week. Model confidence begins to degrade 

toward the end of the period as model solutions deviate on how to 

handle a system for the end of the period; therefore, opted to stick 

with the NBM.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024



Initial round of convection is moving into eastern Kentucky much

earlier than model forecasts, resulting in moving up the arrival 

time for precipitation overnight. Expect VFR conditions

deteriorating to MVFR and possibly briefly IFR conditions in

heavier showers and storms through the overnight and morning

hours. Cold frontal passage will bring more prevalent IFR or low-

MVFR conditions but gradually improving as skies clear within a

few hours of frontal passage. Light south to southwest winds

outside of thunderstorms 10 kts or less will become northwest

Friday afternoon with passage of the cold front. 



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



UPDATE...JP

SHORT TERM...HAL

LONG TERM...VORST

AVIATION...CMC