####018007953#### FXUS64 KLIX 091120 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 520 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Temperatures will begin moderating Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through at least Saturday. - Marine conditions improving on Tuesday. - Little or no rain expected through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Performed an early morning update to align the forecast with observations/trends and latest model guidance through today. Main story is what is on GOES-16 night and fog products this morning illustrating a prominent low-level stratus deck over portions of the area, sustained at around 925mb. Above this layer, large-scale subsidence/compressional warming is evident from proximity satellite derived soundings associated with high pressure in the vicinity. This high and associated subsidence has continued to dry out/eat away at this moist layer form east to west overnight producing quite the complicated forecast in regards to temperatures. Areas that has seen clouds remain in place are noticeably on the very warm side of short-range blended guidance, while areas that have cleared out (more than several hours) are bottoming out quickly into the low 30's, especially the drainage areas. Caught up on trends to highlight the MinT's following this thinking keeping far western/southern areas warmer, and cooler for central/eastern areas with emphasis on the aforementioned drainage locations. Additionally, introduced patchy fog for the Pascagoula drainage basin following recent PQL trends and meteorological logic having maximized time underneath clear skies to aid in strong radiational cooling processes providing shallow/low-level patchy fog. Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure should continue to win over this morning clearing out most areas, then, we warm up/mix out quickly under mostly sunny skies. We'll keep an eye on the cloud line this morning and modify if it continues to impact temperatures greatly. But regardless, highs are aiming for around 60 for most areas which looks good in the suite of guidance this morning. KLG && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A broad upper trough has reached the Atlantic Coast, with ridging over the Rockies and Pacific Coast. There is a southern stream shortwave that extended from Oklahoma to Arizona this evening. At the surface, the axis of a surface ridge extended from western New York to east Texas. A fairly thin layer of clouds around 925 mb, or about 3,000 feet, continued to sink southward across Mississippi into eastern and central Louisiana. These clouds are holding temperatures in the 40s this evening, with dew points in the upper 30s. Models have struggled with this shallow moist layer and the resulting cloud cover. It now appears that it could be mid to late morning Tuesday before the southern stream shortwave to our north and west suppresses the moisture around the 925 mb level far enough south to get rid of the clouds. In some respects, that would be a good thing, as it would lower the threat of freezing temperatures around sunrise. Unless we get quite a bit more clearing in the next few hours, overnight lows are at least one category too cold. Still could get some patchy frost in areas that see a break in the clouds for an hour or two. The axis of the surface ridge will shift off the Louisiana coast by Tuesday evening, with onshore winds returning. A strong upper trough will move through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. This will force another frontal boundary through the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There's very little in the way of moisture with this front, with precipitable water values remaining near or below the 50th percentile climatologically. Highs Tuesday afternoon will likely top out near or just below 60, assuming the clouds depart as expected. Most of the area should see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday night, with highs 65 to 70 on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night will be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday morning...at worst. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 With the longwave trough axis well to our east for the end of the week, the upper flow will be west-northwesterly, which should keep the area mostly dry. It will also serve to shunt the coldest air well to the east of the area, continuing the trend we noted last night through at least the first half of the weekend. Another strong trough will move through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley over the weekend. This will push another cold front through the area, probably Saturday night or on Sunday. Looking at moisture distribution based on forecast soundings, it looks like it is going to be difficult to get any significant precipitation in our area through early next week. If it is going to happen, it'll be with the weekend cold front. Maybe enough to redistribute dust on vehicles...quarter inch totals might be pushing things. Wednesday's frontal passage will probably knock the Thursday high temperatures back a few degrees from Wednesday highs, but that would just put them around normal. Friday and Saturday highs look to be much above normal, with most areas getting into the lower 70s...at least...on Friday. If we get a good bit of sunshine on Saturday, mid 70s look reasonable. NBM highs are 3-6F cooler than the ECMWF and GFS 12z/08 operational guidance highs for Friday and Saturday, and wouldn't be surprised to see the NBM numbers drift upward in the next 12 hours. Sunday's highs will be dependent on timing of the frontal passage. Monday looks cooler, with below normal temperatures, for now. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Main focus this morning will be monitoring a low-level stratus deck across the area, which continues to impact mainly far western and southern terminals providing OVC/BKN CIGs around 020 and remaining persistent. Meanwhile, clearing skies has introduced SKC for northern/eastern terminals. Will keep a close eye on the evolution of these CIGs this morning, as guidance supports these clouds to break up/dissipate with time. That'll improve flight categories to mainly VFR prevailing through the rest of the forecast period. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Will continue Small Craft Exercise Caution through 09z as winds and seas gradually subside. Conditions should be more favorable for marine operations, at least regarding winds and waves for Tuesday through Thursday. Once onshore flow develops at mid-week, that can be a signal for sea fog development during. At this time, the only window where dew points might support fog development would be perhaps Friday and Saturday. The next frontal passage will probably be over the weekend, and may need wind/wave headlines at that point. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 57 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 59 40 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 58 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 58 44 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 56 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 58 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...KLG MARINE...RW ####018005161#### FXUS64 KHGX 091120 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 520 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures are expected again tonight into Tuesday morning with a light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods, more likely in Houston County than elsewhere in the area. - Look for a gradual warming trend through the rest of the week, though a weak cold front on late Wednesday/early Thursday will briefly pause that warmup. Still, by Friday we can expect temperatures to approach 80°F. - Though there is less confidence in the details of how it will play out, we can expect another frontal passage this weekend. Keep up with the latest information through the week on how this front can be expected to unfold! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The early morning hours look to repeat the cold we saw the previous morning, with lows in the 30s and lower 40s across the area. Fortunately, while cold, the area impacted by sub-freezing temperatures looks to be pretty limited. NBM probabilities for a light freeze look to be largely contained to Houston County in our area, though localized cold spots north and northwest of the Houston metro may briefly dip to or just below the freezing mark here and there. Today will continue to be a boon to those who prefer it chilly (and/or prefer chili!) as highs will be warmer, but only modestly so. Forecast highs around the area are quite close to average for early December. For the rest of the week, the general theme will be one of gradual warming, but it should not be dramatically quick or large. Ensemble mean 850 temps continue to be in the muddled middle below the 90th percentile even at our warmest. The warmup will most certainly not be aided by a weak cold front making its way through the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. The impact of this front will be relatively minimal, though - more just a speed bump in the gradual warming trend than a real step backwards in temps. By Friday, we're still looking for highs to reach into the upper 70s to around 80 for all but the coolest spots. Similarly, while PoPs will be non-zero with this front, even a light shower will be very difficult to squeeze out - heck, even getting enough deep moisture in place to get a mostly cloudy sky would be an achievement for this front! What looks more significant is a front slated to arrive sometime this weekend. It is difficult to parse for details due to spread in the numerical guidance, but this will be our next chance for the return of showers and some storms. For now, I keep light, scattered showers from isentropic upglide through the weekend, and hold off higher rain chances until Monday/Tuesday, keeping in line with a slower frontal timing. However, this potential could easily slide up into the weekend. Similarly, the quality of moisture return will impact expectations for how far inland the higher chances of rain will get. For now - I mainly want to emphasize that this weekend into early next week will be a window for unsettled weather, and will effort to get more details out as we refine our expectations and build confidence through the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Other than some patchy early morning fog, VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will be light, becoming south then southwesterly. There could be patchy fog late tonight into early tomorrow morning. For now, mention of reduced vis has not been included in the TAFs for tomorrow morning. But we will continue to monitor the trends in case changes are warranted. && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Winds and seas are continuing to subside to more gentle conditions. Northeasterly winds continue into early Tuesday, with onshore flow returning for the afternoon. There is a small probability for patchy sea fog Tuesday night before a front moves through Wednesday night. A better potential for sea fog may come over the weekend ahead of the next front in the line - though there is not a lot of confidence in a specific scenario at this long range. At the coast, tides around or just below MLLW at times of low tide should be expected to persist through at least today. For the most part, while negative, the tides are not expected to reach thresholds associated with issues to shipping through the bays. One spot to watch more closely will be well up the Houston Ship Channel, as Manchester's low tide on Tuesday may approach 1 foot below MLLW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 46 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 49 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 63 57 71 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Self MARINE...Luchs ####018004154#### FXUS64 KMOB 091121 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Temperatures plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s for locations generally north of I-10 by sunrise this morning. - Breezy conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Much drier and colder air continues to filter into the area early this morning behind a potent cold front. Temperatures have already crashed into the 30s inland with low 40s at the beaches as of midnight. Temperatures will continue to tumble down into the upper 20s to low 30s across inland communities with upper 30s at the beaches by around sunrise. The forecast remains on track this morning and through the rest of the period. High pressure builds into the area in the wake of the cold front today. Expect one more day and night of chilly temperatures before the roller coaster of temperatures begins. The pressure gradient increases across the area on Wednesday between the surface high over the Gulf and a quick-moving surface low pivoting across the Great Lakes region. Onshore flow ramps up with breezy conditions expected in the afternoon on Wednesday, especially across the northern half of our area. Temperatures quickly rebound on Wednesday in this regime with highs topping out in the 60s - a few spots may even approach 70°. A weak cold front will sag into the area late Wednesday as the surface low jet sets off to the northeast. Temperatures will nose dive back into the 30s and 40s Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. High pressure moves back into the area on Thursday in the wake of that front. Steady onshore flow develops on the backside of the high as it continues to trek eastward, so expect another moderating trend with the temperatures. The warmest day in the forecast period is Saturday with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s area-wide. Yet another front slides into the area early on Sunday. While moisture return isn't optimal for this front (similar to the previously mentioned front), we cannot rule out some rain showers in the morning hours. The blended forecast is dry right now, but don't be surprised if we see rain chances start to creep up, especially west of I-65. Overnight temperatures crash into the 30s and 40s again Sunday night into Monday morning. The next chance for more substantial rain will probably come in the middle of next week. Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through the weekend in the current pattern. However, the current probabilistic data has started showing the possibility of reaching a MODERATE risk in the late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday for our Florida beaches, especially Destin. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Other than some patchy fog this morning, VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Light northerly winds early this morning gradually switch to a southeasterly to southwesterly flow this afternoon. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Northerly winds will continue to gradually relax early this morning. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected in the middle to end of the week. Southerly winds develop on Friday and Saturday ahead of another cold front that slides through late in the weekend. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 56 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 56 45 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 57 46 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 57 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 55 34 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 54 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 57 32 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ ####018005438#### FXUS64 KEWX 091122 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 522 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Warning for portions of the area into morning. - Well above normal highs midweek, slight cooldown after a frontal passage sometime Saturday into Sunday. - Dry weather continues with no rain chances through at least Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 228 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Latest observations across the region have shown temperatures have fallen to near freezing for many locations and dew points are running lower than previously forecast in the 20s across many locations. This shows that the temperatures still have room to lower with the very effective radiational cooling with the clear skies and calm winds. As a result, we have elected to issue a freeze warning for most counties except for those that are closest to the Rio Grande, where warmer temperatures will reside. Counties that are to the north of the Freeze Warning have had a widespread freeze already that ended the freeze warning program in those locations for this cool season already. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 By sunrise early this morning we could see a few spots flirt with the freezing mark as strong radiational cooling happens overnight. As such we have decided to issue an SPS for this possibility for the overnight period. We should warm up nicely and by midday Tuesday surface winds return to a more southwesterly direction allowing for a boost to temps back above normal with many areas in the mid to upper 60s possibly approaching 70 in a few spots. As the high pressure moves off to the east models have been hinting at a surface boundary washing out across our area by early to midday Wednesday. As such lows overnight into Wednesday will remain mild with many areas remaining in the low to mid 40s. Additionally, high temps have been dialed back as this boundary causes a shift in winds back to the north northwest. Expect high temps to top out in the low to mid 70s in the east where the boundary will wash out with mid to upper 70s across the west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 As we move into the long term expect a slightly cooler night for Wednesday evening as northerly winds continue to allow for some advective cooling overnight. However, we arent looking at any freeze possibility as moisture will actually be on the increase heading into Thursday morning thus limiting that potential. Expect much more milder temps to continue for Thursday albeit it a touch cooler due to the slight delay in southerly flow. Low level southerly flow returns and really ramps up allowing highs to soar into the upper 70s to near 80 by Friday and possibly into Saturday as well. Lows during this period will also be much more mild with many areas staying in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Our next front then approaches sometime around late Saturday as the front looks to come in much slower now as previously thought. It still looks to remain rain free like the front that moved through this past Sunday and brings with it a slightly cooler airmass to the area for Sunday. The latest runs of the NBM continue to show considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of this front. Regardless, expect very mild and dry weather through Sunday. Temps behind this front also look to drop back down to more seasonable levels with highs returning to the low 60s. Beyond Sunday, model ensembles are hinting at the possibility of some rain chances however this is still very far away and things could change. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR flight conditions continue through the period under mostly to completely clear skies. Winds remain light at 10 kt or less with directions becoming south to southwesterly from the afternoon through Tuesday night. For KAUS and northern locations, could see a weak boundary slide through late in the 30 hour TAF period and shift the winds more northerly. For KDRT, the winds remain more east to east-southeasterly in direction through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 69 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 45 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 44 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 45 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 47 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 41 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 44 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 46 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ187-191>194- 203>209-218>225-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...62 ####018004279#### FXUS64 KOUN 091122 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 522 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 510 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Above average temperatures through Friday. - Cooler this weekend. - No chance for precipitation through at least the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 There is a low chance for some patchy fog to once again develop across parts of OK towards sunrise Tuesday. Confidence is low enough that do not have mention in the forecast but will need to monitor obs into early Tuesday. After a cool start (lows mid 20s to mid 30s) to the day, Tuesday is expected to be a fairly decent day with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Models show southwesterly winds across the area Tuesday. These winds along with mostly sunny skies and downslope flow will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 60s across most of the area although some locations in western north TX could actually climb into the low 70s. The forecast highs are 10- 15 degrees F above average for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Models show NW flow aloft into late this week with a shortwave moving across the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley later Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will push a cool front across the fa Tuesday night into Wednesday. Breezy/gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front Tuesday night into at least Wednesday morning. Cooler air will also move into the area behind the front with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday afternoon. Despite these temperatures being cooler than Tuesday, the forecast highs are still near or a few degrees above average for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Sfc winds are expected to shift back towards the south Wednesday night with southwesterly winds on Thursday. The southwest winds along with mostly sunny skies will lead to warmer, above average temperatures once again Thursday afternoon with highs back in the 60s to low 70s. NW flow is expected to continue through the weekend with another cold front moving across the area Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday with highs in the mid 40s in north central OK to around 60 in western north TX. Models show a secondary cold front moving across the area over the weekend bringing a re-enforcing shot of cool air which will lead to even cooler temperatures Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. These colder temperatures currently look short lived with highs returning to the 50s maybe low 60s early next week. Despite several cold front passages, the forecast continues to be dry into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Fog is ongoing this morning across far southeast Oklahoma with low chances for it developing westward to DUA. Thus, any mention of fog has been left out of this TAF issuance, but few low clouds were maintained through the morning. There is also very low chances for patchy fog to develop near CSM this morning and amendments will need to be made if there is development. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the period with low-end breezy winds of 15 to 25 knots this afternoon and a cold front tonight and through all sites by sunrise tomorrow. Breezy north winds will accompany this frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 62 42 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 64 37 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 68 40 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 37 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 62 40 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 63 42 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...23 ####018007875#### FXUS63 KMQT 091123 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 623 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning for Southern Schoolcraft and Luce counties, where lake effect snow transitioning to system snow may bring an additional 2-4" of snow. Highest amounts are expected closer to the Chippewa/Mackinac county borders. - Another batch of light to moderate snow moves through tonight. Snow totals of 2-4" are expected closer to the WI border, but a more northerly track of the system may bring higher totals in excess of 4" (30-50% chance, highest over Menominee county). - A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson and Menominee counties tonight into Wednesday morning. - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are possible late this week into this upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Early morning RAP analysis has a midlevel shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes, with the associated surface low beginning to move over western Lake Superior. Light snow has spread across the UP out ahead of it, and persistent southerly flow is leading to lake enhancement of of Lake Michigan across the far eastern UP. Though hard to spot given the distance from, well, any radar, there are hints on radar of a more robust band developing courtesy of that long SSW fetch over Lake Michigan. This appears to be directed over US-2 east of Manistique, extending inland across M-28 towards Newberry. Indeed, visibility at Newberry has been coming in below a mile for a couple of hours at this point, even falling below a half mile at times. Latest hi-res guidance shows a potential for heavier banding and snowfall rates in excess of 1in/hr lingering after sunrise in the far eastern UP, so the Winter Weather Advisory in the eastern UP has been extended to 14Z. Elsewhere, snowfall rates remain rather light, though drops in visiblity have been noted area- wide, and any snow accumulations could lead to slick roadways into the morning commute. Meanwhile, a pocket of dry midlevel air is apparent over MN and western WI as the shortwave pulls away. Nighttime microphysics looks rather murky, with plenty of low stratus. Surface observations show lingering visibility restrictions and a stray snowflake. This is all to say that some lingering flurries and even freezing drizzle will not be ruled out behind this main batch of snow. Significant icing is not expected, but it does point to a further risk for slick spots on the roadways. Take it slow. Finally, we briefly dry out into the afternoon as this initial wave pulls away. A few breaks in the cloud cover will be possible, while temperatures (currently in the teens/low 20s) rise ever so slightly into the low/mid 20s. Then, the next, stronger clipper drops out of the Northern Plains tonight. There remains an interesting amount of disagreement between global and hi-res models for an event barely 24 hours out. Hi-res guidance shows a deeper midlevel trough, a more northerly track in the surface low, and a more northward shove of heavier QPF compared to the global models. This puts our WI- bordering counties right on the northern edge of the heavier QPF, while global models have the heaviest accumulations more comfortably southward over central WI. So, confidence in warning-level totals remains low, but this latest forecast has nudged up totals in our Wisconsin-bordering counties slightly to account for the hi-res guidance. This gives us a general 2-4in of snow from Gogebic to Menominee counties, with a potential for some higher totals in depending on the track of the system. For its part, the HREF does indicate a potential for snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour sweeping from west to east mainly between midnight and 4am. Elsewhere across the UP, totals tonight range in the 1-3in range, highest over the north-central UP given enhancement off of Superior. Have therefore decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the southern UP tonight into Wednesday morning. The main batch of snow quickly moves out early Wednesday, but amid chilly north and eventually NW flow, expect lake effect snow to linger. This isn't looking to be terribly heavy given the rather dry midlevels indicated in soundings, but another couple of inches will be possible in the north and NW wind snow belts. Gusty winds develop behind the cold front, with gusts to 20-25mph common and stronger gusts to near 30mph possible nearer Lake Superior. This could lead to some blowing snow. Temperatures hover in the teens to lower 20s. Otherwise, medium range guidance continues to point to cold temperatures persisting across the region through the period as highs fall back into the teens and overnight lows again flirt with sub zero readings by the end of this week. Our Clipper parade continues as well. Of note: models continue to hint at another stronger Clipper system approaching during the weekend, but differ greatly on strength, progression, and timing. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 622 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 IFR/LIFR conditions are ongoing at each TAF site this morning as a clipper makes its final glancing blow across the UP this morning. Cigs/vis will improve to MVFR as snow tapers down, however, light lake effect snow will persist mainly at CMX this afternoon. Another clipper is set to work south of the UP tonight through Wednesday morning, bringing another round of light snow and IFR conditions. Heavier snow at IWD may bring LIFR vis at times after 00z. Otherwise, gusty N winds pick up behind the passing clipper tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Southerly winds continue to gust to around 20-25kts across the eastern half of the lake early this morning, but briefly fall back below 20kts by the afternoon while veering to the WNW. Winds will then quickly increase out of the northeast late this evening as the next system passes south of the area, with winds turning northerly overnight. This leads to a brief period of 35-40kt NE gales over western Lake Superior tonight, particularly between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale. As winds turn to the N and then NW during the daytime hours Wednesday, gales will become concentrated over the central and eastern waters, falling off from west to east during the evening. Have opted to issue a Gale Warning late tonight through Wednesday. Will also have to watch for moderate to locally heavy freezing spray in these areas. Winds then turn northwesterly and drop below 20 kt for much of the rest of the work week. Then, the potential for gales returns late Friday night and into the weekend with quickly-moving shortwave trough followed by steep ridging. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MIZ007- 014. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MIZ009>012. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ242>244- 263-264. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ245-247- 248-265. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ249-250- 266. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION...BW MARINE...LC ####018004412#### FXUS65 KVEF 091123 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 323 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the week, with periods of breezy northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley today and again on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...through next Monday. Breezy northerly winds are expected again this afternoon in the Colorado River Valley, with 25 to 35 mph wind gusts anticipated between Laughlin/Bullhead City and Needles, and 1 to 2 foot waves on Lake Mohave. These northerly winds will linger into Wednesday before decreasing for the second half of the week and the weekend. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures along with dry conditions will persist through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Western US. Temperatures will gradually increase each day through mid-to-late week, with multiple high maximum and high minimum temperature records in jeopardy Wednesday through Friday. See the CLIMATE section for more information regarding records. By this weekend, the ridge will flatten as a shortwave moving through the mean flow passes across southern California, Arizona, and northern Mexico. While no precipitation is anticipated with this feature, an increase in high cloud cover is expected, which will also help lower temperatures several degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will follow typical diurnal directional patterns through the forecast period, remaining light with speeds around 6KT or less. VFR conditions prevail with a few high clouds around 25kft expected to move into the area this evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds today will remain around 5-10KT, following typical diurnal directional patterns with some variability. The exception will be portions of the Colorado River Valley in the vicinity of IFP, where elevated northerly winds are expected through the period, with intermittent gusts to 20-25KT. VFR conditions prevail. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations across the region have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). A double asterisk (**) denotes which sites have forecast values that will tie or break the existing record. MAX WED, DEC 10 THU, DEC 11 FRI, DEC 12 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 74(1950) 72(1939)* 74(1958) Bishop 72(1958)* 78(1958) 74(1953) Needles 80(1934)* 78(1958)** 80(1958)* Daggett 77(2015) 79(1958) 83(1958) Kingman 75(1950) 77(1950) 72(1950)** Desert Rock 68(2015)** 68(2010)** 72(1988)* Death Valley 80(1911)* 81(1914)* 79(1924)** The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). A double asterisk (**) denotes which sites have forecast values that will tie or break the existing record. WARM MIN WED, DEC 10 THU, DEC 11 FRI, DEC 12 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 52(1996) 50(2014)** 51(1995)** Bishop 35(1984) 36(2016) 44(1956) Needles 56(2017) 54(2014) 59(1995) Daggett 50(1981) 53(2016) 51(1995) Kingman 47(1937) 47(1981) 51(1934) Desert Rock 51(1996) 47(1996)* 53(1995) Death Valley 56(1970)** 58(1914)* 60(1914) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Planz AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018003914#### FXUS64 KMAF 091123 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 523 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Above-normal temperatures are expected into next week, despite weak cold fronts moving through the region. - No precipitation will occur throughout West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The Short Term remains quiet. Highs today warm relative to yesterday as breezy southwesterly to westerly winds develop and we remain under northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures top out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s areawide. For references, these highs are about 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, lows tonight dip down into the 40s for most (30s in the typical cool spots). By Wednesday morning, a front arrives, yielding gusty northerly to northeasterly winds through the day. That being said, this front's impact on highs will be somewhat limited, as it only knocks temperatures down 4-7 degrees relative to today's. Skies remain clear through the period, and rain chances are nil. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 We start the Long Term period off with temperatures well-above normal as winds veer southwesterly to westerly and weak ridging aloft sets in. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low-to-mid 70s for most on Thursday. What has changed since yesterday is the cold front that is expected to move into our northern counties by Friday looks to be weaker and become more diffuse. As such, Friday afternoon highs only drop a couple degrees for some (as opposed to 60s). Another change is that the NBM is now running on the higher end of guidance (75th percentile) for Saturday as well. Given the latest guidance and cluster analysis, this makes sense as models are depicting higher heights in the data and the cold front is not expected to be as strong. However, this may change as there is still a lot of spread amongst the ensembles. There are some indications that a stronger cold front may move through the area by Saturday night, giving rise to the possibility that temperatures may drop below normal. By the start of next week, models indicate southerly return flow and ridging overhead, bringing temperatures back up once again. As always, we will continue to monitor trends in the data and make changes to the forecast as needed. The extended forecast remains on track with respect to remaining dry. Greening && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly to westerly winds become breezy today, with gusts between 18-24 kts expected at most sites this afternoon. By the end of the period, a front enters the area, yielding gusty northerly to northeasterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 42 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 42 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 46 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 60 41 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 69 42 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 67 34 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 43 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 69 44 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 72 39 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...13 ####018005137#### FXUS66 KMFR 091123 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 323 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025 .DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation section... && .AVIATION...09/12Z TAFs...A front remains aimed at the Oregon Coast just north of North Bend. This is bringing gusty winds to the coast and a variety of ceiling conditions across the region. Along the coast and just offshore, IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with visibility also lowering this morning as the front slowly sags south. VFR conditions generally prevail across the region, but LIFR conditions are spotted in the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys, and these lower conditions will prevail through this morning. In the Umpqua Basin, the proximity of the front could limit fog development there, and VFR conditions are currently present, but have added MVFR ceilings when the sun comes. Meanwhile, strong winds aloft will persist near the Cascades and over the east side in Oregon (north of Highway 140) today where higher terrain could experience gusts in excess of 50 mph. This could lead to some low-level wind shear over there (NE of Klamath Falls) since a low-level inversion probably doesn't allow these winds to mix all the way to the surface in some valleys. Even so, vertical mixing may improve today to allow surface wind gusts to 50 mph from around Summer Lake eastward. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 235 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025/ DISCUSSION...Satellite and observations show that low clouds are developing across some west side valleys, including the Rogue Valley. Heavier cloud cover is preventing fog development in more east side spots, including Klamath Falls for now. Radar has a few showers passing in far northern Coos and Douglas counties as they move east tonight. Through the morning, these showers are forecast to reach ~0.25"- 0.50" near the Douglas/Lane County border. Snow levels in the affected areas are above 8,000 feet tonight. The upper level high to our southwest off of central California is still looking to be enough to keep most of the activity north near Portland and Seattle this week. The main areas to see rainfall for the next few days will be the same locations to see it now. Between this morning and Wednesday morning, very northern Coos and Douglas counties, including parts of the Cascades, can expect 0.30"-0.75", with near 1.25"-1.75" near the northernmost part of Douglas County. Most of the rain will fall between this morning and into the evening. Although most of this will be occurring in a 12 hour period, there is a lower concern for flooding with this compared to areas north of us. East side and Northern California have the lowest chances for rain with less than .15" from Chemult to Fort Rock being the most to expect. Although the area will be dry, east side will have to deal with stronger winds between now and this afternoon. A mid-level jet of 50- 60 kt with similar speeds at 300 mb show that strong winds are forecast to reach the surface during this time with gusts near 50 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect through this evening, and this includes areas near Silver Lake, Summer Lake, and Paisley. Wind gusts near 45 mph have already been reported at Summer Lake early this morning. Please see the NPWMFR for more information. Getting into the middle of the week, the high pressure to our southwest takes control and brings drier conditions through at least the start of next weekend. Earlier models were showing a continued chance of showers at the coast through the work week, but this has started to back off. The EC has also backed off on weekend rain chances, but it is still coming in earlier than the GFS with a Monday morning vs Monday afternoon timeframe. Either way, there is some more agreement that early next week could have active weather in both Southern Oregon and Northern California. In the meantime, we will be watching for how the system the next few days moves through and watch for how the models handle the next week after. -9 MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, December 9, 2025...Gusty south winds and steep wind waves combined with westerly swell will maintain conditions hazardous to small craft through at least today. Winds subside tonight, but west swell persists into Wednesday, especially north of Cape Blanco. Conditions improve for the latter half of the week as swell dominated seas gradually lower. Expecting showers over the waters through mid-week as well which could further reduce visibilities (fog/low clouds expected as well) over the next couple days. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$ ####018004077#### FXUS64 KLZK 091123 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 523 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Some fog or freezing fog will be possible through the morning hours. - Increasing SW winds and warmer temperatures expected today. - A couple of cold fronts will move through this week with a stronger one bringing much colder temperatures for the weekend. - Mostly dry conditions are expected, but some light rain is possible on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Low clouds remain in place across portions of eastern and southern Arkansas this morning with mostly clear sky conditions and cold temperatures elsewhere. Will have to monitor the potential for freezing fog development across portions of western, central and southern Arkansas through daybreak. Sfc ridging will drift E/SE away from the state today and SW winds will increase as this happens. This will lead to increasing temperatures across the state both today and tonight. 24 hr temp differences during this timeframe could be nearly 20 degrees F in some cases, quite a noticeable warmup for some. A cold front will move through on Wednesday which will temper the warmup expected across the state somewhat. NW winds will increase and the warmest readings are expected across southern AR. The warmup will commence once again for the Thu-Fri timeframe as the low level flow remains out of the SW. Another weak front will move through on Friday after peak heating, with cooler temperatures expected for the Friday night timeframe. The main change will take place from Saturday into Sunday as yet another cold front will move through, but this one will lead the charge of an Arctic airmass. Much colder air will spill in with highs on Sunday likely limited to the 30s F for much of the state. Overnight lows in the 20s F will be fairly widespread as well. While the state will be impacted by the cold air, the center of the sfc ridge associated with the cold airmass will remain northeast of the state. This will lead to the coldest air being well NE of Arkansas by hundreds of miles. Also, this will lead to a pretty good temperature spread from northeast to southwest across the state this weekend into early next week. There remains very little signal for any moisture through the period. The main change over the past 24 hours is that there could be some showers on Saturday, with some low POPs included with this forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 MVFR/IFR cigs persist across the southern half of the state while high clouds and VFR conditions are in place across the northern half of the state. Low clouds will slowly erode and VFR conditions will become widespread through the period. SW winds will increase across much of the state today, strongest across northern AR. Could see winds above 10 kts with gusts above 20 kts at times, persisting through the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 56 43 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 57 41 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 59 43 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 56 42 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 56 42 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 57 43 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 58 43 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 59 43 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 53 43 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 56 42 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 59 40 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 55 40 59 32 / 0 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 54 42 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 AVIATION...67 ####018003495#### FXUS63 KICT 091124 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 524 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temps today, with 60s likely for most locations. Warm temps will quickly return for Thursday, with highs again getting back into the 60s. - Colder air will start to move into the area Friday, with a more substantial surge of cold air moving-in for Saturday and especially Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Currently have northwest flow aloft setup through most of the CONUS with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse sliding across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a more robust upper wave is about to move into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians. Upper perturbation over the Northern Rockies will quickly track southeast today and will be moving into the Northern Plains by this evening. As this wave passes off to the north, west and southwest winds will provide great downslope conditions this afternoon, boosting highs into the 60s. Warmest temps today will be west of I-135, where the deeper mixing will be located. If we can get mixing deep enough, it's not out of the question that our western fringes could approach 70 degrees this afternoon, with a great chance that most areas reach the 60s. By Wed morning, upper impulse will be tracking southeast across the Mid Mississippi Valley with a weak cold front pushing through the Plains. This will knock highs down into the low 50s for Wed, which is still several degrees above seasonal highs. We will get back into more good downslope for Thu which will push highs back into the 60s for most areas. GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement for the Fri-Sun time frame which does lead to some higher confidence. They both have a weak upper wave tracking out of southern Manitoba and into the Western Great Lakes by Thu night. This will allow another cold front to push through the forecast area by Fri afternoon. However, the more impressive surge of cold air will arrive on Sat, as a more impressive shortwave rotates out of south central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes by Sat evening. So confidence is high in below normal temps for both Sat and Sun, with highs Sun struggling to make it above freezing. Just like the last couple of weeks, the cold air will not last long, as we get back to seasonal temps by Mon. Confidence also remains high that we are not looking at any precip events through the next 7 days, with the best snow chances staying to the north. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 519 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. A storm system will pass off to the north of the area today and will provide warm west and southwest winds. A cold front is then expected to move through the area tonight and will flip winds around to the northwest. Front will move through KRSL- KGBD-KSLN around 03z and KICT around 06z. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...RBL