####018006842#### FXUS62 KMHX 251040 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 640 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front with limited moisture will and cross the region this morning. High pressure builds back into the area from the north this afternoon and eventually slides offshore this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 640 AM Thursday...Precipitation from earlier last night associated with the prefrontal trough has moved just offshore early this morning. The cold front was currently located over central NC coastal region and will be moving southeast across southeastern NC over the next couple of hours. Not expecting much if any precipitation with the frontal passage this morning. Later this afternoon, however, isolated showers will be possible across eastern NC especially along and south of Highway 70 where the gradient will remain weak and allow a sea breeze to form and move inland during peak heating. Convergence with the sea breeze and the developing post frontal northerly flow combined with diurnal heating should be enough to trigger isolated showers as CAPE values of 250-300 J/kg are forecast. Any showers should rapidly dissipate by early evening with the loss of heating and the increasing post frontal northerly flow finally extending into southeast NC. Shallow fog early this morning will dissipate rapidly after sunrise as the front sweeps through and northerly winds increase. Temps will continue warm inland with highs in the mid to upper 70s but will be cooler, only around 60 along the northern Outer Banks in onshore flow. N to NE winds will be gusty along the coast following the passage of the cold front this afternoon into this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday...Sfc high pressure ridges in from the north tonight resulting in cooler air moving into the area. Guidance is beginning to indicate that an area of low stratus will develop along and just off of the Outer Banks by early evening then drift westward and inland across portions of eastern NC tonight. Right now most areas east of Highway 17 should become mostly cloudy overnight with the possibility that these clouds could extend further west into the coastal plain. Areas along the coast will experience gusty winds with lighter northerly breezes inland. Lows will range from the upper 40s inland to the mid 50s immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating the region. High pressure will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for Saturday as high remaining stubborn looks to be the most likely outcome. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. Another frontal system will be moving through mid week next week. How the high behaves will play a role on how far south the higher moisture along the cold front extends. As of right now, looks to be mostly dry with higher precip chances expected in farther north than eastern NC. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the warmest days of the long term (mid-upper 80s inland), aided by SW flow with the surface high to our east over the Western Atlantic Ocean. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 640 AM Thursday...A brief period of occasional sub VFR conditions will occur through 12Z this morning in shallow fog which will rapidly dissipate as heating commences. VFR conditions will occur for the most of the remainder of the TAF period though an isolated afternoon shower will be possible. Late this evening through the overnight hours there will be a good potential for IFR ceilings as low clouds spread west from the coast tonight. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through Monday with high pressure prevails over the region. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 640 AM Thursday..SCA's continue in effect for the sounds and coastal waters today and tonight for gusty post frontal northerly winds. Early this morning the cold front was located over the central Outer Banks and will begin moving southeast across the southern waters this morning. Ahead of the front W to SW winds were 5-154 kt. Behind the front winds will shift to the N to NE and increase to 15-25 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas currently 3-5 ft will build to 4-7 ft tonight. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 410 AM Thursday...Surface high pressure over the Northeastern U.S. will nose south over the waters on Friday as a weak boundary remains south of the area. The ridge will shift off the coast on Saturday allowing flow to become more easterly, then eventually southeasterly by Sunday morning. A new surface ridge will develop across the Southeastern states and shift off the Carolina coast by Sunday afternoon, shifting winds southwesterly and persisting SW through Tuesday. NW winds will diminish below SCA levels Friday, though seas will linger at or above 6 ft through much of the day for the coastal waters. May see SCAs persist until Friday evening for the central coastal waters, Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet. Winds and seas subside below SCA levels for the weekend into early next week with generally good boating conditions anticipated. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...DAG/RJ AVIATION...DAG/JME MARINE...DAG/JME ####018004307#### FXUS65 KFGZ 251042 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 342 AM MST Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Look for cooler and unsettled conditions for the second half of the week as a pair of weather disturbances move across Arizona. Chances for showers arrive today and again by late Friday and into Saturday. Fair weather is expected to return on Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...The first low pressure system will arrive today. There will be decent dynamic lift with this first low with just enough moisture for saturation and good chance for showers. The main show will be later this morning through the afternoon focusing from the western Mogollon Rim northeastward to the Four Corners. The air mass will be unstable so there will be thunderstorms around the area, especially this afternoon with daytime heating. Liquid precipitation amounts generally 0.15 inches or less. The low will be of the more mild spring variety so the snow level will remain mainly above 8000 feet with only an inch or two of accumulation over the very highest mountain peaks. Most locations will see gusty winds from the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. However, from about Heber eastward, where the surface pressure gradient will be stronger, afternoon gusts in excess of 45 mph are likely at times. the Associated with the passing low daytime temperatures will be cooler. Overnight...The first low will exit the state. Showers will linger over east and northeast portions into the evening before the main dynamics for lift moves into New Mexico. Friday and Saturday...The next low approaches then moves across the area. Much of the day Friday will see windy, cool and partly cloudy weather as the next low approaches. Late in the afternoon the first chance of showers will enter northwest Arizona with arrival of the next round of upward lift then spread across the area Friday night. Moisture will be more plentiful with the second low so precipitation is expected to be more widespread. Look for a showery day on Saturday with a good chance of hearing some thunder as the air mass will once again be unstable, especially as daytime heating progresses. Another round of gusty southwest to west winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to around 40 mph in spots. The snow level could dip as low as 7000 feet but once again any snow accumulation will be reserved for the highest mountain peaks. From Sunday onward...A mild and dry west to northwest flow returns. Mainly clear skies and warmer daytime temperatures appear nearly certain with the usual round of gusty afternoon southwest winds each day. && .AVIATION...Thursday 25/12Z through Friday 26/12Z...MVFR cigs and vis possible in SHRA/TSRA, 15Z-03Z. SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 5-15 kts overnight. OUTLOOK...Friday 26/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z...VFR conditions before 12Z Friday, then MVFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA liekly through 00Z Sunday. Brief periods of IFR possible in SN/RA mix for sites above 6500-7000 feet MSL. VFR conditions returning thereafter. Winds SW 15-25 kts on Friday, becoming W 10-20 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Turning cooler. Isolated light showers and thunderstorms develop late this morning and continue through the day. More widespread activity then sets in late Friday afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph for today, increasing to 20-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph on Friday. Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers, with high-elevation snow at times, and thunderstorms for Saturday, along with westerly winds 15-25 mph. Warmer, drier conditions return Sunday and Monday, with west winds 10-20 mph on Sunday and shifting to the southwest on Monday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ013-014. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018005299#### FXUS62 KILM 251043 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north today through Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early next week as the high shifts to off the southeast US coast. && .UPDATE... Introduced patchy fog in low lying areas across the area where light rain accumulated last evening. Ground fog is expected to lift shortly after sunrise. Mostly clear and pleasant this afternoon. A stray shower is still possible along the sea breeze in coastal NC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure building to the north today will bring mostly sunny skies outside of some surface-based cumulus developing in patches during the afternoon. Shallow instability near the NC coast could lead to the development of a sea breeze shower or two shortly afternoon noon. The bulk of cool air remains displaced to the north today, allowing afternoon highs to reach the upper 70s to near 80 across portions of SC. Generally, temperatures are a degree or two above the guidance mean. Northeast flow develops this evening as high pressure settles over New England. Inversion aloft and moisture advecting surface winds could lead to the development of low level cloud cover late tonight, especially along the coast. Low temperatures reflect this chance with the majority of the area in the low and mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to extend down into the Southeast as it shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast Fri into Sat. An onshore flow will persist as the winds shift from the NE to the E and eventually SE heading into Sun. The onshore winds will be enhanced both Fri and Sat aftn near the coast in afternoon sea breeze. Will see a mix of low and high clouds through the period, including some aftn cu, especially along sea breeze boundary which should get a decent push inland with easterly component to the prevailing winds. At the same time, a ridge will build overhead with increasing heights. This should help with warming, but the cooler air pushing inland in the afternoon sea breeze, and overall lower low level thicknesses, expect temps to be slightly below normal for Fri and Sat. Overnight lows will be right around normal or slightly above, in the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday will start a real warming trends as ridge builds overhead and winds shift to a more S-SW flow early to midweek as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The 850 thicknesses and H5 heights begin to show a nice rising trend. This will combine with plenty of bright late April sunshine to support high temps into the 80s each day. The southerly flow will support increasing humidity as dewpoints reach closer to 60. This will also keep overnight lows on the warmer side. The next cold front should not reach the area until midweek and therefore aside from a stray sea breeze shwr possible, expect a mainly rain-free period. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Patchy ground fog across the area inconsistently impacting the terminals as showers did last evening. After sunrise, any remaining shallow ground fog should lift with all terminals becoming VFR. Light winds today become NE this evening. A stray shower is possible along the immediate NC coast this afternoon. Low clouds are likely to develop overnight, but the extent of this development is unknown at this time. Extended Outlook... There is a low potential for MVFR to IFR visibility in ground fog Friday morning. VFR expected through Monday outside of a chance of morning fog this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Light and variable winds are expected this morning following a cold front. Increasing northeast flow will develop by this afternoon as high pressure builds to our north. Nearshore sea breeze winds around 15 knots will maintain intensity past sunset, increasing to 15-20 knots this evening. NE flow will produce increasing seas overnight with 2-3 foot seas today increasing to 3-4 feet by Friday morning. Friday through Monday...Onshore flow will continue through much of the weekend with winds veering from more of a NE flow to the E ad then SE by Sun, overall diminishing from 15 to 20 on Fri down to 5 to 10 by late Sat. The afternoon sea breeze should keep winds higher each afternoon into late day closer to the coast. Seas will start out in the 3 to 4 or maybe even some 5 fters on Fri in a gusty NE wind, but will diminish to 2 to 4 ft by Sun, dropping below 3 ft by Mon as winds shift around to more of a SW to W flow around high pressure establishing itself off the Southeast coast. A longer period easterly swell will mix in. No headlines are expected through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21 MARINE...RGZ/21 ####018006380#### FXUS62 KTAE 251044 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 644 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Northwesterly upper level flow prevails through tonight ahead of a building upper level ridge currently across the central Plains. A weak shortwave will traverse across the region in the northwesterly flow aloft and combined with a warmer afternoon and slightly higher preciptable waters, we'll likely see a few more clouds around today. Rain is not expected, but a brief rain shower can't be ruled out across our southeast Alabama counties, but even here rain chances are less than 10%. Light north and northwest winds are forecast in the morning and will become southerly through the afternoon as the seabreeze develops and more through. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s. Quiet conditions are expected tonight with only forecast concerns being patchy/areas of fog developing across the Panhandle overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Surface high pressure slowly slides eastward on Friday, while a deep surface low develops over the central U.S. Upper level ridging will be building in from the west during this period, which will allow dry conditions to continue. The pressure gradient between the surface high over the east and the low over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region will tighten allowing for breezier conditions on Saturday. Highs for Friday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, although the FL coast will may only top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 60s. Saturday's highs will generally be in the mid 80s for inland areas and low 80s near the coast. Saturday night into Sunday morning, lows vary from the low to mid 60s for much of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Upper level ridging looks to hold along the eastern seaboard for much of the region, with surface high pressure sliding down the seaboard and towards Bermuda. This will generally hold and keep fairly dry conditions in place. A disturbance passes to our north midweek which could lead to some showers and rumbles of thunder to our northern and eastern most counties late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period but brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions due to smoke and/or patchy fog is possible at ECP, TLH, and VLD until 13/14z this morning. The highest confidence is at ECP. After fog clears out, VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the day. Southerly flow will develop by the afternoon hours as the southerly seabreeze makes inland progress. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 No major changes to the forecast as light and variable winds are expected through the early morning. Winds will then shift to the east and southeasterly allowing for a brief period of onshore flow this afternoon. Winds once again go light and variable overnight, with a east and south east flow regime taking over on Friday and continuing into the weekend. With a strong pressure gradient developing, and the combination of the Atlantic Seabreeze, expect cautionary/advisory level conditions to develop for the weekend. The strongest winds are likely to be in the overnight and early morning hours as the easterly surges from the Atlantic seabreeze pass through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Light westerly and northwest are expected today with winds becoming southerly across Florida and into southern AL/GA as the seabreeze develops and moves inland in the afternoon. Dispersions will be similar to Wednesday, but greater mixing potential is expected along with warmer temperatures. Atmospheric stability will be a little lower this afternoon compared to Wednesday so would not be surprised for dispersions to verify a little higher than forecast today. Dry conditions are expected again, and through the upcoming weekend. Prevailing winds will increase Friday and into the weekend as an east and southeasterly flow regime develops. This will likely bring nocturnal increases in winds in the overnight hours. The only fire weather concerns through the period will be high dispersions on Friday and a period of higher dispersions over the weekend along conditions continuing to dry out. No appreciable rainfall is expected for at least the next 5 days, and possibly extending into much of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Little to rain is forecast for the period, which means the only hydrology concerns are with the ongoing riverine flooding. Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee, the lower Withlacoochee, the Aucilla, and the St. Marks Rivers. The Aucilla and St. Marks continue to fall and should exit flood stage in the next 1 to 2 days. On the Suwannee, the flood wave is now near Branford and will continue to move downstream over the next 5 to 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 61 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 63 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 84 61 87 65 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 83 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 84 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 64 77 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...KR