####018003717####
FXUS64 KTSA 181635

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1135 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Sunday. Any 

   stronger storms will be capable of locally gusty winds and 

   heavy downpours.



 - A trend toward drier and hotter conditions will continue

   through early next week. Heat indices will reach 105-115 F for

   many areas Monday and Tuesday with heat headlines likely.



 - Uncertainty increases for influence of weak cold front

   Wednesday through Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through tonight )

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



Regional morning soundings sampled similar conditions compared to

recent days with an uncapped deep moist profile. Expect isolated

to scattered storms again this afternoon with the zone of deeper

mid level moisture extending across the forecast area a potential

development corridor. Short term guidance has varied considerably

in overall coverage through early evening so confidence is low for

any specific location. Expect locally gusty winds with any 

stronger storms that can develop. And in following near persistent

trends the forecast will retain low chance of precip late tonight

for potential elevated convection by early morning.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through Saturday) 

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



The overall trend of warmer and drier remains the forecast with

any storm coverage likely more isolated by Sunday afternoon.

Dewpoint trends will become the more uncertain forecast element

regarding excessive heat conditions. It still appears likely that

heat advisories will be needed for portions of the area possibly

by Sunday and more likely by Monday. 



Sfc winds gradually veer both Monday and Tuesday afternoon

becoming west of south for most the area with the pre frontal

thermal axis aligned across the region by Tuesday afternoon. Both

days hold potential for triple digit heat for portions of the

forecast area, and pending dewpoint trends, excessive heat

warnings may be needed by Tuesday afternoon. 



The weak cold front remains in the forecast to arrive Tuesday 

night into early Wednesday. The frontal zone is likely to become

oriented NW to SE in or near the forecast area on the periphery of

the upper level ridge. Any sustained cooling associated with the

front will largely depend on any more widespread precip developing

within the frontal corridor as the post frontal airmass will be

lacking for a robust airmass change. There remains considerable

uncertainty in these details for the mid to late week forecast.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026



Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon

and early evening, but chances are too low at any one site to

include in the TAF's.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   76  97  79  98 /  20  20   0   0 

FSM   76  97  77  99 /  20  20   0   0 

MLC   75  95  77  97 /  20  20   0   0 

BVO   74  96  76  98 /  20  20   0   0 

FYV   73  93  74  94 /  20  20   0   0 

BYV   72  93  74  94 /  20  20   0  10 

MKO   74  94  76  97 /  20  20   0   0 

MIO   73  95  76  97 /  20  20  10   0 

F10   73  94  75  97 /  20  20   0   0 

HHW   75  93  75  97 /  10  20   0   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...07

LONG TERM....07

AVIATION...05