####018004663#### FXUS64 KFWD 131120 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 520 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog will affect portions of Central Texas through the morning before visibilities improve by midday. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight leading to colder and windy conditions on Sunday. Light rain and drizzle may accompany this front's passage. - Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region next week with minimal rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Yesterday's weak stalled frontal boundary and the nearly calm winds in its vicinity are serving as an impetus for dense fog development across Central Texas. Higher surface dewpoints remain pooled along and south of this boundary where a Dense Fog Advisory is already in effect, but additional fog development could occur through parts of East Texas yet this morning along a northward protrusion of the moist axis. We'll continue to monitor trends for any necessary expansion of the current Advisory. Slow partial clearing of fog and low stratus should occur through the daytime before a strong cold front arrives this evening and tonight. This frontal boundary and its attendant ascent should support additional low cloud cover and perhaps pockets of light rain and drizzle from late this afternoon into tonight. Post- frontal northerly winds will also increase to 15-20 mph with some gusts of 25-30 mph immediately following its passage. Strong cold advection will send overnight lows into the upper 20s and 30s for most locations, some 30+ degrees colder than this afternoon's highs. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Sunday morning will feature crisp wind chills in the teens and 20s following the overnight frontal passage, and cold advection will offset diabatic heating with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s. Wind speeds will gradually lessen throughout the daytime, becoming calm on Sunday night. Despite a cold start to Monday morning, an abrupt warming trend will commence through the first half of the workweek as a warm advection regime becomes reestablished, with highs returning to above normal as early as Tuesday. Another fast-moving Central Plains system could sweep through the area during the second half of the week, but the degree of moisture recovery preceding it remains uncertain. For now, rain chances with an additional late week frontal passage are too slim to mention, with an abnormally warm and dry forecast being the most likely solution. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Low stratus near 2 kft has advanced to the immediate southern fringes of the D10 TAF sites as of 11z, and should be able to overspread the Metroplex airports within the next few hours. MVFR conditions should be the prevailing condition for North Texas airports through the daytime, with perhaps brief scattering to VFR occurring later this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. For Waco, IFR/LIFR conditions currently prevail with fog reducing visibility to less than 1 mile, and these conditions are unlikely to improve until late morning. The strong cold front will push through Metroplex airports beginning around 03z and Waco closer to 05-06z, and may be accompanied by patchy mist/drizzle and a brief drop to IFR cigs. Gusty north winds to 25 kts will exist behind the front into Sunday morning with cig heights gradually lifting to VFR beyond 12z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 31 43 28 / 0 10 0 0 Waco 66 39 47 30 / 20 10 0 0 Paris 59 31 43 23 / 10 10 0 0 Denton 63 26 42 24 / 0 10 0 0 McKinney 62 29 43 25 / 0 10 0 0 Dallas 63 33 46 29 / 0 10 0 0 Terrell 64 33 45 25 / 10 10 0 0 Corsicana 67 40 50 29 / 20 10 0 0 Temple 69 39 49 28 / 20 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 67 29 46 26 / 0 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ147-148- 156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley ####018007168#### FXUS62 KGSP 131121 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 621 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ahead of an arctic cold front expected to cross the region early Sunday, ushering in bitter cold temperatures to start the week. Temperatures quickly rebound by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 615 AM EST Saturday... Key Message #1: Warming trend continues today ahead of a strong cold front with dry conditions lingering through early this evening. Cyclonic flow remains aloft while a strong cold front approaches out of the west. Dry conditions and much warmer temperatures can be expected this afternoon ahead of the front (thanks to W/WSW 850 mb flow), with highs ending up around 4-8 degrees above normal. Temperatures will reach into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Higher elevations will see highs reach into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Key Message #2: Rain chances increase slightly ahead of a cold front this evening into tonight east of the mountains. Rain chances may return ahead of and along the cold front late this evening into tonight east of the mountains. However, 00Z CAMs are not very excited, only showing anemic coverage at best south of I- 85, with dry conditions elsewhere outside of the mountains. Thus, blended in some of the drier guidance which led to chance PoPs mainly south of 85. Key Message #3: Northwest flow snow develops behind the front tonight into daybreak Sunday along the NC/TN border with only light accumulations expected (well below Advisory criteria). Northwest flow precipitation will develop behind the departing cold front along the NC/TN border tonight into daybreak Sunday. Precipitation will start out as rain before transitioning to snow as temperatures fall near/below freezing overnight. Snow should gradually taper off just after daybreak Sunday. Snowfall amounts will be light and well below Advisory criteria, ranging from a few tenths of an inch to an inch. Isolated locations above 3,500 feet could see up to 1.5 inches of snowfall. Key Message #4: Gusty north/northwest winds develop behind the front late tonight into daybreak Sunday, mainly across the mountains, but should remain below Advisory criteria. Wind speeds will gradually increase behind the front as the pressure gradient tightens late tonight into daybreak Sunday. Gusty winds will develop across the mountains with breezy winds developing east of the mountains. Gusts still appear to remain below advisory criteria for most locations in the mountains. Gusts will generally range from 20 to 35 mph in the mountains, with higher elevations seeing gusts from 35 to 45 mph. The highest ridge tops may see gusts from 45 to 50 mph. Wind gusts east of the mountains will range from 15 to 20 mph. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1220 AM EST Saturday: Key Message 1: Arctic front brings gusty winds with bitterly cold temperatures Sunday through Monday. The Arctic air mass overtakes the area Sunday and into Monday morning, bringing strong wind gusts and the coldest air temperatures of the season. For Sunday, latest data keeps the stronger wind gusts across the mountains with a chance (50-60%) of gusts higher than 40 mph occurring at the highest peaks. The confidence for wind gusts between 30-39 mph across the remainder of the mountains has increased as the chance is 70-80%. This current guidance keeps criteria for a Wind Advisory out of reach for now. Winds are expected to diminish into Monday morning. Additionally, these winds usher in bitter cold temperatures. Confidence is high that the entire area drops into the mid to lower teens east of the mountains and single digits in the mountains. With the added wind gusts, temperatures will feel even colder, as wind chills look to dip below zero at the higher elevations Sunday night. Confidence is also increasing that these cold and windy conditions could prompt the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of the mountains. Outside the mountains, the temperatures are not as cold and at this point, confidence is lower for a product being issued. By Monday afternoon, temperatures should rise above freezing and start to recover. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1210 AM EST Friday: Key Message 1: Temperatures rebound and dry conditions settle in before precip chances increase by the end of the week. High pressure remains overhead and suppresses precipitation chances through most of the week. By Tuesday, nearly zonal flow across most of the CONUS, reinforcing the quieter weather and dry conditions. The surface high stays put and continues to churn off the Carolina coast. Precip chances start to increase Thursday into Thursday night, at the tail end of the forecast period. Model guidance starts to develop an upper low that could bring another frontal boundary near the area, but confidence in this is low as too many variables are likely to change. Even with the current guidance, QPF response looks minimal. This next potential system is highly dependent on where the western fringe of the surface high sets up. A migration westward decreases rain chances and a shift eastward could increase rain chances. Temperatures quickly rebound after starting the week with frigid air and by midweek, should be back to normal or even a tick higher. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through the 12Z TAF period with some occasional cirrus passing overhead through the early evening hours. Wind speeds will remain light through the morning hours before gradually increasing in speed this afternoon. Wind direction at KAVL will be mostly NW but wind direction may briefly toggle W/WSW late this afternoon. Wind direction east of the mountains will remain N/NE through daybreak before turning S/SW late this morning into early this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind direction east of the mountains will gradually turn NW behind the front overnight into daybreak Sunday. Cigs will gradually lower to low-end VFR levels with high-end MVFR levels possible at KAVL and KAND overnight. Wind speeds will increase overnight into daybreak Sunday with gusty winds developing at KCLT and KAVL towards the end of the TAF period. KCLT could see a brief period of LLWS develop overnight. Outlook: Gusty N/NW winds will linger into Sunday before diminishing Sunday night into daybreak Monday. Dry high pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through early next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AR ####018003957#### FXUS63 KICT 131121 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 521 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy freezing fog/drizzle is possible across central Kansas this morning through around midday. Minimal impacts expected. - Cold front arrives this afternoon bringing much colder temperatures for tonight and Sunday. - Above normal temperatures return for the upcoming work-week with the dry weather conditions persisting. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Currently, a deep upper trough is digging into the northern U.S. and Great Lakes region. This trough will drive a cold frontal boundary across our area later today. Ahead of this boundary, though, low level moisture and broad ascent is leading to low clouds overspreading the area. To our west where there is slightly better lift, we are seeing areas of patchy freezing fog and freezing drizzle. HREF probabilities are currently giving portions of central Kansas low chances (20-30%) of seeing visibility falling below 3 miles around daybreak due to fog/drizzle. CAMs are also keeping the highest chances of dense fog just the the west of the forecast area. We are not expecting widespread impacts for central Kansas at this time. This will continue to be closely monitored through the morning as drizzle/dense fog in sub-freezing temperatures could lead to some minor travel impacts. For this afternoon through Sunday, the frontal boundary is set to arrive around midday for central Kansas counties and by mid- afternoon for south-central and southeastern Kansas. Prior to the cold front arriving, temperatures in southern portions of the forecast area will be able to approach the 40 degree mark. Due to the earlier onset time for central Kansas, temperatures will only be able to warm into the lower 30s before falling through the afternoon. Ahead of and along the front in southeast Kansas, some patchy drizzle is possible, though confidence remains low at this time as models keep the lowest levels relatively dry. Behind the front tonight, temperatures will continue to tumble and will bottom out in the teens around daybreak on Sunday. With northerly winds near 10 mph, wind chills across the area will fall into the single digits through late Sunday morning. Then, highs on Sunday will only warm into the upper 20s to lower 30s. As has been the pattern of late, the much colder air will be confined to our east and the coldest temperatures will be fleeting. As we move into early next week, stout ridging and northwesterly flow will build back over the region. Temperatures will quickly rebound with highs on Monday near normal to slightly above normal with highs reaching into the upper 40s. Warmer and more mild weather will continue through the end of the week as broad ridging dominates the pattern. Highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s are expected as there is quite a bit of agreement across models. A weak frontal boundary looks to sweep across the area on Wednesday night leading to slightly cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Overall, we are expected to remain relatively warm and dry throughout next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 IFR ceilings are impacting most sites this morning with RSL and GBD reporting LIFR cigs. Look for IFR to MVFR ceilings to persist through much of the day, beginning to lift and dissipate between 00-06Z. A frontal boundary will dive across the state this afternoon turning winds out of the north between 18-21Z. Winds will increase behind the front with gusts between 15-20 knots. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...AMD ####018003544#### FXUS64 KAMA 131122 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 522 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - A cold front will provide cooler temperatures to end the weekend. - The chance of impactful weather over the next 7 days is very low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 As we enter this mid December weekend, another cold front is set to enter the Panhandles. This front currently stalled over the Midwest region to central Great Plains, will resume its progression through the day and pass south of the region by later this afternoon. Ahead of the front, compressional heating may help a few spots across the southern Panhandle to top out around 70 degrees, but most highs today will be in the 60s. Breezy north-northeast winds will be left behind the front, sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. This will aid cold air advection, especially this evening and overnight when lows will bottom out in the teens and 20s. We may need to keep an eye out for patchy areas of fog leading into Sunday morning, when models show a modest plume of low-level moisture seeping into the area. Forecast soundings suggest this may just end up being a low-level stratus cloud deck, but localized areas reaching sfc saturation could still create fog wherever stronger radiational cooling can occur. Overall confidence in fog occurring is low at this time. Sunday will be notably cooler, feeling much more like December with highs in the 40s to mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient will develop over the Panhandles beneath northwest flow aloft, generating southerly winds of 10-20 mph. Stronger winds in the northwest will help highs be slightly warmer in the 50s, while lingering cloud cover over the central to eastern Panhandles has medium chances (40-70%) to keep highs in the 30s all day. Sunday night will be another cool one with low temperatures below freezing. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Our quiet pattern, lacking much if any impactful weather headlines, persists through next week. Long range models show an open wave trough being ushered over Mexico through mid week, leading to upper level ridging stretching over the Panhandles. A warming trend will resume accordingly, as afternoon highs return to above average for this time of year in the 60s and 70s. Guidance hints at a front arriving by Thursday, providing a short reprieve from the winter "heat". Unfortunately, winter appears to be fighting a losing battle to end next week, as the synoptic signal from long range ensembles keeps maintaining a warmer and dry pattern for the foreseeable future. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 A cold front will move through all terminals today and breezy northeasterly winds are expected behind it. Winds will weaken later in the evening, but MVFR ceilings are favored to move into at least KDHT and KAMA later tonight. There may also be fog at KDHT and KAMA, but confidence is low in that occurring at this time. Vanden Bosch && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...52 ####018003664#### FXUS64 KLUB 131124 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 524 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 - Warm today ahead of chilly conditions tonight behind a strong cold front. - Cooler highs expected Sunday before a warm up through the week. - Record breaking highs possible Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Satellite imagery shows a familiar upper air pattern as broad cyclonic flow persists over the eastern half of the CONUS with a deeper closed low aloft seen drifting slowly southward over the northern Great Lakes region. A sunny and warm Saturday is on the way across West TX as surface winds turn southwesterly with highs generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As the above-mentioned closed low aloft shifts eastward this afternoon, expansive surface high pressure will quickly spread southward over the Great Plains which will in turn push a rather strong cold front through our region by late Saturday evening. Although this will be a dry frontal passage, strengthening northeast breezes and robust low level cold advection will result in a chilly overnight period with temperatures quickly falling into the low to mid 20s across the region by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A much needed break from unseasonably warm temperatures is expected Sunday. Prevailing northeasterly winds, ushering in cooler air through the first half of Sunday will keep highs in the 40s across the region. Sadly, these cooler temperatures do not continue into the work week. Winds will gradually veer to the southwest Sunday evening in response to the development of a lee surface trough. For the upper levels, ridging over the Desert Southwest on Sunday will move east over the region through Monday. Southwesterly surface flow will prevail through much of the work week, warming temperatures into the 60s and 70s through Wednesday. An upper trough will translate over the Four Corners region Tuesday before models indicate it will take a sharp dive south right before it reaches the Texas Panhandle. However, conditions will remain dry with little to no moisture return with this upper system. Following the trough, mostly zonal flow aloft will prevail through the latter half of the week. Record breaking highs will be possible at KLBB Wednesday with the current record high of 78 degrees set in 1980. NBM has a forecast high of 77 while MOS guidance forecasts a high of 79 degrees. A slight cool down in temperatures later in the week is expected as a cold front is progged to push southward through the region late Wednesday through early Thursday. However, well above (~10-15 degrees) seasonal normal highs persist. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Stratus moving northward through the Concho Valley and Big Country should stay to the south and east of the terminals. Stratus and/or fog may move in tonight behind a cold front, although confidence on whether this happens is low. Generally south to southwest winds today ahead of the front will switch to northeast with the frontal passage this afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07 ####018009018#### FXUS63 KMQT 131124 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 624 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to heavy lake effect snowfall and areas of blowing snow continue over the northwest wind snow belts today through tonight. See the latest Winter Weather Advisories for additional information. - Gales and heavy freezing spray are expected on Lake Superior into early Sunday. - Below normal temperatures continue this weekend before a warm up above freezing next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 As a 1004mb low over northern Ontario this morning continues to weaken with time as it travels into northern Quebec this evening, lake effect snow showers over the northwest wind snow belts continue across the U.P., with snowfall rates getting up to 1/2 inch per hour over the west and 1 inch per hour over the east in the strongest bands/highest elevation areas. With some of the coldest Arctic air overhead so far this Winter season, mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the sfc will allow for areas of blowing snow to develop, particulary along the lakeshore and higher elevation areas of the northwest wind snow belts; thinking things could be particularly hazardous/dangerous along M-26 atop the Spine of the Keweenaw and along the lakeshore in the west and M-28 west of Munising today into tonight due to the sand-like nature of the snow crystals greatly reducing visibilities in the areas of blowing snow and in the heavier snow bands; wouldn't be surprised to see lower than quarter mile visibilities at times over these spots. While several inches are expected over the eastern northwest wind snow belts today and tonight, with a couple of isolated spots potentially seeing up to a foot or more, was more on the fence on extending the Winter Weather Advisory over the western U.P. today through this evening as I'm not confident that we will achieve snowfall amounts that traditionally warrant one (only up to around a 30% chance of 6 inches or more). However, when considering that the snowflakes will be more sand-like given the frigid Arctic air (temperatures are looking to be too cold to have much dendritic growth, instead relying more on sector- plating processes) and that this type of snow is more likely to cause blowing/drifting problems, especially as it pertains to visibility reductions, decided that this additional hazard over the western U.P. warranted the extension of the current Winter Weather Advisory over Ontonagon, northern Houghton, and Keweenaw counties, as well as including Gogebic County too to 1 AM EST tonight. In addition to the Winter Weather Advisories, wind chills down to -31F are being seen across the interior west early this morning. These anomalously cold apparent temperatures have warranted the continuation of the Cold Weather Advisory over Iron and Gogebic counties until 9 AM CST this morning. As ridging builds in on Sunday, expect the lake effect snow to dwindle and leave the area, with the last of it leaving the east in the evening hours. Beyond this weekend, expect a pattern shift as the past few weeks of below normal temperatures gives way to above normal temperatures. After another Clipper looks to move through late Sunday night through Monday across the Upper Great Lakes (bringing light snowfall back to the north and east), the rex block over the Pacific Coast breaks down. This will allow for above freezing temperatures to return across the U.P. for the first time in weeks; with winds picking up from the southwest throughout the day as a deepening Clipper moves through the Canadian Prairies through northern Ontario, we could see some of the south to southwest wind downslope areas get into the lower 40s on Tuesday. While the cold front of the Clipper could bring light LES back over northwest wind snow belts Tuesday night, not much, if any measurable snowfall, is expected to replace any snow we lose during the daylight hours. Given that most of the snowfall we've received this year has been lake enhanced/effect and not wet/synoptic, I'm curious as to how much of the snow pack we will lose. What may help us, though, is that we will have modified air in the lowest levels due to the loss of snowpack further south of us; I'm very confident that the warm Gulf air will do far more damage to the snowpack that's south of us (such as in IL/WI). Thus, the melting further south may help the lowest levels be cooler and reduce any melting we see up here on Tuesday. The next period in the extended worth noting is the middle of next week. As of now, medium range guidance is highlighting an anomalously strong Clipper low deepening down to around 981mb as it approaches the Upper Great Lakes around Thursday. As of the time of this writing, solutions have generally trended cooler, even though things are looking to be less windy (temperature advection is not looking to be as strong ie. 12C temperature difference now in 6 hours instead of 15C as previously predicted). Will continue to keep an eye on this system, as some impactful winter weather and winds could be realized if this plays out right. Beyond this, the Clipper action and more normal-ish temperatures look to continue to the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 623 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Lake effect snow showers will continue to impact KIWD and KCMX in this TAF period. Both sites will see LIFR conditions due to the showers and blowing snow from strong winds. The combination of the two may result in airport mimimums at times for KCMX. KSAW can expect VFR this morning, but conditions fall to MVFR this afternoon. By evening, snow showers may move into the KSAW area, but there continues to be uncertainty. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 Anomalously cold Arctic air behind a weakening low moving from northern Ontario into northern Quebec today will allow strong northwesterly winds aloft to mix down to the sfc, with some gale force gusts up to 35 knots expected from time to time today to keep moderate to heavy freezing spray going across the open waters. As the winds veer more northerly tonight, expect an increase in the winds slightly over the north central and eastern lake this evening before ridging moving in on Sunday calms things down and brings an end to the freezing spray by Sunday afternoon; winds are expected to calm down to 20 knots or less by late Sunday afternoon as well, although with a Clipper looking to move through late Sunday night into Monday across the lake, hi-res models are showing winds increasing from the southwest over the western half of the lake late in the day on Sunday through Sunday night to gales up to 35 knots (potentially even to 40+ knots if the latest HRRR is to be believed). As the Clipper moves through the lake Monday morning, expect the winds to slacken behind the low, although west to eventually northwesterly winds of 20 to 25 knots look to continue over the eastern half of the lake until Monday evening. Ahead of and immediately behind the low, some moderate freezing spray could be seen. As a deepening Clipper low traverses through Canadian Prairies and northern Ontario Tuesday, expect the winds to pick up from the southwest with time, with gales up to 40 knots possible Tuesday evening (30% chance according to the NBM). After another ridge slackens the winds across the lake to 20 knots or less by Wednesday afternoon, an anomalously vigorous and deepening Clipper low moving over or at least close by looks to potentially bring high-end gales across the lake on Thursday (40% chance of 45+ knot gales according to the latest NBM). This Clipper could also bring moderate to heavy freezing spray back across the lake; continue to monitor the forecast to see the latest changes on the track of this strong system. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for MIZ001>003-009. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ006-007- 085. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MIZ009- 010. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for LSZ162. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for LSZ240>245-248>251-263>267. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LSZ244>246-248>251- 264>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TAP AVIATION...JTP MARINE...TAP ####018007160#### FXUS61 KALY 131124 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 624 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching disturbance will bring snow showers to areas from mainly I-90 north today. Another disturbance will bring a light snow accumulation to areas mainly south of Albany tonight into early Sunday. An Arctic cold front will push through on Sunday, resulting in colder and blustery conditions returning Sunday night into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: - High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through the weekend. - A disturbance will bring light snow to areas mainly south of Albany tonight into early Sunday. There is a 40-70% chance of at least 2" of snow. Discussion: As of 200 AM, radar and webcams indicating a few leftover lake effect flurries over the NW Adirondacks, otherwise dry conditions in place with satellite imagery showing plenty of clouds from around I-90 north. Water vapor shows a potent lead short wave (associated with a larger upper low/though over the upper Great Lakes) moving through Michigan/Lake Huron at this time. This system will continue to track east across our area today, bringing snow showers from around mid morning into the afternoon. Snow showers will be scattered around the I-90 corridor, but more widespread in the W. Mohawk Valley and SW. Adirondacks where S-SW upslope flow aloft will enhance lift. Most of the area will have < 1" of snow, with 1-2" in the SW. Adirondacks. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal today, with highs mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A southerly breeze will gust around 10-20 mph at times. Some brief lake effect snow showers will move across parts of the W/SW Adirondacks early this evening as westerly flow briefly aligns. Then, as the upstream positively tilted upper low/trough over the Great Lakes starts to shift SE, a potent short wave rounding the base of the trough tracks into the Ohio Valley. Forcing ahead of this disturbance along with limited cyclogenesis off the mid Atlantic coast will bring a period of steady light snow to areas mainly south of Albany from late this evening to early Sun morning. Not much change from the prior forecast, with 1-2" snow for areas south/east of Albany and < 1" from Albany north/west. NBM probs for > 3" are only 20-40% for SE areas, so there is high confidence this will be a minor event. The snow will be dry/fluffy too with snow-liquid ratios of 15:1 to 20:1. Lows will range from the single digits in the mountains to 10s/lower 20s in the valleys. The steady light snow SE of Albany should taper off an hour or two after sunrise, with mainly dry conditions thereafter. The only exception will be scattered snow showers developing along an Arctic cold front that will push southward across the area during the afternoon. The snow showers should mainly be tied to areas west of the Hudson Valley. Highs will range from the 10s to upper 20s. Temperatures will drop considerably as an Arctic air mass filters in Sun night. Lows expected to range from around 0F to around 10F, but a persistent NW breeze will result in wind chills or feels-like temperatures as cold as -15F in higher terrain areas and -5F to +5F in lower elevations. Some mountain areas could get close to Cold Weather Advisory. Will continue to monitor trends. With the NW flow, any lake effect snow should be limited to central NY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message: - Cold temperatures persist through early next week, with a warmup expected mid to late week. - A storm system may bring widespread precipitation, including mainly rain, later next week. Discussion: A cold air mass will remain entrenched across the region through early next week, resulting in below normal temperature continuing. The next chance of snow showers arrives late Mon P.M. into Mon night, as another disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes tracks SE across our area. Will mention scattered snow showers for most, but more widespread activity expected west of the Hudson Valley due to lake effect/upslope enhancement. Some spots in the W. Adirondacks could get 1-2" of snow, with < 1" elsewhere. Some brief lake effect may occur behind this system into early Tue, then dry conditions take hold with surface ridging moving in, although it will remain cold. A more zonal flow regime aloft develops by Wed, with a developing SW flow expected to result in milder temperatures at least getting back to normal levels Wed afternoon (lower 30s to lower 40s). Even warmer temperatures could occur on Thu as southerly flow strengthens ahead of a potentially strong cold front approaching from the west. NBM maintaining highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, which seems reasonable at this time. Precip chances also rise considerably Thu into Thu night. At this time temperatures look warm enough for rain at lower elevations, but there could be some sort of wintry mix or snow in some higher terrain areas. Will mention rain/snow for now due to uncertainty and refine forecast details as we get closer. Temperatures look to cool back down by Fri in wake of the cold front. Depending on eventual strength of winds aloft, winds could get quite gusty in the westerly cold advection regime. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12z/Sun...VFR conditions will continue into the morning hours today, then an approaching disturbance will bring lowering cigs and some snow showers between 16-21z/Sat, mainly to KGFL/KALB/KPSF, where some MVFR cigs and/or vsbys could occur. Brief IFR vsbys are possible at KGFL. Maintained PROB30 groups with this update. Mixed VFR/MVFR cigs are then expected after 21z/Sat with the higher confidence for MVFR cigs at KPOU/KPSF as this disturbance brings a period of snow to these sites beginning 02-04z/Sun. If snow becomes steady enough, vsbys could lower to IFR at KPOU/KPSF as well. The northern edge of the precipitation could be near KALB, but kept this TAF dry for now. Wind will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt today with a few gusts to 20 kt, mainly at KALB/KPSF. Wind will then become west to southwesterly at 5-10 kt after 00z/Sun. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...07 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...33 ####018005594#### FXUS65 KBOU 131124 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 424 AM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler for northeast plains this weekend. Otherwise, unseasonably mild and dry across the region through early next week, with weaker winds after today. - Strong downslope winds expected Wednesday, which may lead to fire weather concerns for the lower elevations and foothills. - Increased potential for mountain snow late Wednesday into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... Issued at 101 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Northwest flow aloft will continue through this weekend with an upper level high off to the west where mild and dry conditions will prevail. A polar low will be centered over the Great Lakes bringing arctic air to the north central and northeast part of the country. This arctic isn't far away from Colorado with temperatures in the teens and lower 20s over northwest Nebraska and northeast Wyoming. For tonight, surface pressure lowers along the base of the foothills. Expect downslope winds to increase in the Front Range Mountains and foothills. Typical windy locations are expected to see gusts to around 60 mph. Some gusty winds will spread onto the urban corridor where gusts to 40 mph will be possible overnight and into Saturday. This will result in a warm night where the winds persist. The temperature forecast for Saturday will be a tricky one as the arctic air sneaks into northeast Colorado. Models greatly vary on the amount of arctic air that makes it into northeast Colorado. The 2PM temperature at DEN on the HRRR is 64F, while the GFS shows 44F. Typically the colder air advances more quickly and farther westward than the models show. The morning will start off mild with temperatures expected to reach the 50s to lower 60s along the urban corridor and nearby plains. As the arctic air moves into the area temperatures are expected to fall during the afternoon and by sunset temperatures could be in the 30s or even 20s. The arctic air is expected to be shallow, only up to 7,000-8,000 feet MSL, so don't expect the cold to advance very far into the foothills. && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/... Issued at 101 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 It's starting to feel as though the warmer temperatures are becoming a Mid-West goodbye... We're seeing above average temperatures through all of next week with little in the way of moisture for the plains. Ensembles are showing higher probabilities, 70+ percent, of 10 to 15 degrees above average daytime highs and overnight lows all of next week. Moisture, if we're able to get any, will be mostly confined over the high country and should be snow with a possibility, 30-40%, of a rain/snow mix in the mountain valleys. Currently targeting Wednesday for any moisture across the mountains as the upper level flow becomes more zonal and tries to wring something out. The pattern just isn't good but it's a very typical La Nina pattern for us in Colorado. Speaking of Wednesday, windy. Yes it's further out there in time and yes confidence is increasing and yes there are uncertainties but digging into the ensembles and the larger picture we can gain some knowledge. Cluster analysis shows some pretty decent camps of stronger zonal flow with anomalous heights over the inter- mountain west. EFI and SOT from the ECE are high and low respectively in terms of wind/wind gusts meaning, the individual members are showing higher confidence in an impactful event. Even looking at NBM in DESI we have a 40-50% chance of maximum gusts at the base of the foothills exceeding 70 MPH. Now the uncertainties, does the wind stay more 290-310 degrees aloft or does it trend slightly back towards 330-350 degrees? Does the moisture content on Wednesday become too deep to disrupt any kind of thermal inversion preventing the winds aloft to be forced downward? Don't have all the answers yet and we may not until Tuesday...Chinook are tough! We don't really lose the stronger forcing aloft with the more expected zonal-ish flow so we keep the stronger winds around through the end of the work week. Can't forget to mention fire weather, not that anyone wants to hear it. We're dry and mild/warm, and we have enough wind to continue to dry out any early December moisture, if it's not already gone from the lower foothills, and the plains never really got it anyway. As we get into the later part of next week we see increasing potential for at least elevated fire weather conditions with the wind, receptive fuels, and lower RH values. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/... Issued at 418 AM MST Sat Dec 13 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through the TAF period. Low stratus deck with FG has remained largely anchored over the S. Platte River Valley and due just north of KDEN. Drainage flow from the SW/WSW is expected to continue through sunrise, and thus keep the low CIGS north of the terminal. Winds will rotate clockwise through the morning, becoming NE near 19Z with a frontal passage that will bring gusts 20-25 kts. Winds will continue rotating back to drainage flow this evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...Heavener AVIATION...BRQ