####018004911#### FXUS63 KEAX 091130 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy conditions today and tomorrow. Today wind gusts will range from 20-30 mph. Wednesday morning wind gusts will range from 40-50 mph. The strongest winds are anticipated for northern MO immediately behind the cold front Wednesday morning. A wind advisory is in effect for areas north of HWY-36. * Increasing confidence in much cooler temperatures late this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Ongoing widespread near-freezing temperatures will linger through the morning hours. However, temperatures will rebound quite nicely to above-normal this afternoon. A mid to upper level trough, tracking to the southeast out of the northern Great Plains, will push a surface low (and associated fronts) through southern MN towards WI resulting in a strengthened pressure gradient. With mostly clear skies across the area and just enough diurnal mixing, a few winds gusts to 20-30 mph will be possible late this morning into the afternoon. This increased southwesterly windflow, out ahead of the cold front, will be the catalyst for our warm-up today above seasonal averages. Highs for today will range mostly in the 50s. Locations east of I-35 and north of I-70 may see highs in the 40s as cloud coverage (associated with a ribbon of moisture and a lead H700 shortwave) could impede the effects of daytime heating. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, the mid to upper level trough will make it into WI pushing the surface low and cold front through the area. As a result, our winds will reorient out of the northwest. As the pressure gradient strengthens with the low passing to our north/northeast, winds at H925 increase to near 50 kts. As the cold front passes and low-level lapse rates steepen immediately behind the cold front, surface wind gusts will rapidly accelerate to 40-50 mph. Confidence for the strongest winds remains in areas north of HWY-36. The HREF strongly agrees, giving areas north of a line from St. Joseph to Macon probabilities of 60%-100% of winds greater than 45 mph early Wednesday morning. A wind advisory has been issued for areas north of a line from Holt to Adair counties from 9Z-14Z. There is a chance that this advisory could be expanded if higher wind gusts are expected farther south. The strongest winds taper off late Wednesday morning as the gradient begins to relax. Concerning precipitation with this front, there are very low-end chances (below 10%) for a few, brief snow flurries given how close the saturated layer is to the dendritic growth zone. The best chance would be for areas near northeast MO. Confidence is not high enough at this time to increase PoPs as better moisture and forcing remain to our north. Therefore, the forecast remains dry for Wednesday morning for our area. Highs for Wednesday on the backside of the cold front range in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some locations near west- central MO may reach the upper 40s. For the second half of this week, a stout mid to upper level ridge shifts eastward over the western U.S. As we remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge, it seems to keep us mostly dry even with shortwaves, within the circulation of a robust closed low over Manitoba/Ontario, pushing through the area. The LREF hints at a chance for snow flurries on Thursday morning, however confidence in timing and location remains too low at this time add a mention to the forecast. At the surface, an anomalous high pressure (1 to 2 standard deviations above normal) descends into the Northern Great Plains this weekend possibly ushering in the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this year. Highs for this weekend range from the teens to just above freezing with lows just below zero to the upper teens. Early next week, heights rise with the eastward shift of the upper level ridge suggesting temperatures return closer. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will begin to gust to 20-28 kts out of the south/southwest later this morning into the afternoon. Winds weaken this evening before a surface cold front reorients our winds out of the northwest/north. Wind gusts will increase to around 35-45 kts just behind the front towards the end of the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008- 011-015>017. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Collier ####018002612#### FXUS64 KBMX 091131 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 531 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 - Seasonable temperatures expected this week with little chance for rain until the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 1116 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025 High pressure is expected to build into the region today, leading to some clearing of the persistent cloud cover that we've seen over the past few days. Southerly flow returns Wednesday ahead of another frontal passage, but deep moisture return will be lacking, so we're not expecting any significant rain chances with the next frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday. Rain-free weather is expected to continue through the end of the week. Another wave is expected to dip through the main upper level trough over the weekend. An effective warm front appears to lift northward through the area on Saturday before the main cold front pushes through Saturday night into Sunday, leading to increased rain chances. Keeping the overall probabilities low for now as coverage of any rainfall still remains uncertain. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 Low clouds have eroded already across the area as a clipper system works into the area from the north. With the clouds scouring out earlier than forecast patchy fog has developed in spots. Any fog should dissipate by 15z. Otherwise variable high clouds with light winds for most sites. AUO may see winds of 7 to 8 kts through the morning before dropping to less than 7 kts after 18z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs will generally remain above 40% for the next several days with little to no rain chances through the remainder of the week. We'll see southerly flow today, shifting more westerly then northerly with our next frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 51 32 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 53 34 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 52 37 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 54 35 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 54 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 53 34 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 53 32 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 53 32 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...16 ####018007459#### FXUS62 KGSP 091131 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 631 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will move in from the west through the middle part of the week. A series of two cold fronts will move across the region during the latter half of the week and weekend, ultimately bringing much cooler temperatures into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1:15 AM EST Tuesday... Key Message 1: Drier conditions return overnight, however slippery roads will be a concern thru the morning for areas that received accumulating snowfall. With low temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s this morning, any melted snow or lingering snow cover could result in slippery roads. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) will likely be issued for lingering black ice thru this morning. Low temperatures are expected to bottom-out below 30 degrees for the majority of our fcst area this morning. Key Message 2: Sfc high pressure gradually builds in from the north today, bringing dry and cool conditions and gradually diminishing cloud cover. Temperatures should rise above freezing by mid to late morning for most locations allowing the concern for slippery roads to diminish. Although cloud cover will gradually thin/sct out thru the day, the latest model guidance continues to suggest that it may take longer than previously expected, and we may not see much sunshine until the late afternoon at many locations. As such, high temperatures will likely remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal across most of our CWA. Highs will probably recover more over the southern and central NC mtn valleys, however the northern NC mtns will likely struggle to warm much above the mid 30s today. Outside the mtns, highs in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: 1) Strong wind gusts Wednesday, especially over the mountains. 2) Better chances of precipitation on the TN border late Wednesday/Wednesday night behind an initial cold front. As of 1239 AM EST Tuesday: The greatest concern through the middle part of the week continues to be the wind gust potential on Wednesday. The synoptic situation hasn't changed much over the past day, and the model guidance continues to show a strong low level jet translating east across the region during peak heating ahead of a short wave digging down into the mid/upper trof to our west. Probably the biggest difference in the model guidance has to do with how deep the mixing will be. The GFS and HREF would suggest mixing deep enough to really tap into the low level jet and have enough potential momentum transfer to bring down wind gusts that would be close to Advisory level, especially above 3500 ft. However, the NAM is not nearly as deep and has gust potential much more in line with the model blend and below criteria. Fortunately, we have another model cycle or two to evaluate the potential and to see if the NAM and some of the other CAMs have the better mixing/gust potential. The other development in the new guidance is a trend toward better precip chances late Wednesday through Thursday morning along the TN border. Most of the guidance shows a more coherent sfc boundary driven through by the short wave late in the day, with an area of low level moisture moving in behind the front on a developing WNW low level flow. We end up with a chance of precip in the upslope areas near the TN border as a result, probably mostly a light snow chance because of the cold advection on the west side of the mtns. It should be a quick shot of precip though, limiting any accumulations to maybe an inch in some spots, so well short of Advisory level. The guidance brings slightly cooler air east of the mtns with this development, so the high temps Thursday have trended down a category or so, into the realm of five below normal or thereabouts. Fair but cooler weather should continue thru Thursday night with high pressure moving overhead. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 1) Arctic cold front delayed until Sunday, with a better chance of precip over the mtns. 2) The cold air mass will finally arrive late Sunday into Monday, with temperatures about 15 degrees below normal for Monday into Tuesday. As of 1252 AM EST Tuesday: The latest model guidance is doing that moving target thing for the upcoming weekend, as it continues to back away from any precip chances Friday and early Saturday as the flow aloft flattens and any moisture/short wave energy is directed more toward the central Appalachians. So, the fcst precip probs have fallen off to a short period of slight chance Friday night, and that might still be overdone. Not much change is noted with temps for Friday with a flatter/stronger flow aloft persisting longer into the weekend, however, a stronger wave moving in from the west on Saturday results in a big upward bump in the temps owing to some warm advection east of the mtns, to the point where we have a decent shot to get a category or so above normal for Saturday afternoon with some decent sun. Quite a change from what the Saturday forecast looked like a few days ago. The latest guidance has more of a moisture return from the western Gulf ahead of the approaching wave, meaning there is more support for a band of precip preceding what would be the Arctic cold front running up the west side of the mtns Saturday night. Confidence is still modest at this point and the QPF reflects that. Sunday no longer looks quite as chilly as areas east of the mtns will still be in the strong WNW downslope, so we might still be around normal, and it will take until the overnight for the cold advection to work its way across the mtns. But, it should eventually, and Monday still looks fifteen below average. The air mass modifies quickly and temps begin to rebound already Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Low-end MVFR cigs are expected to persist thru the morning across the area, despite observing some holes in the cloud cover over the past few hrs. Confidence remains fairly low wrt how quickly these cigs will sct out today, but I still expect VFR conditions to return to most terminals by mid to late afternoon with few to sct mid and high clouds expected later this evening and early Wednesday. Winds will remain light this morning and generally favor a NE to ENE direction outside the mtns. They will toggle around to S to SW this afternoon with speeds of 4 to 8 kts. They will eventually strengthen Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens over the region with low-end gusts expected. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions expected thru the end of the week. Gusty SW winds are likely across the area on Wednesday. NW flow precip may develop along the NC/TN border Wednesday night and again Thursday night into Friday, however dry con- ditions should continue elsewhere. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...JPT SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JPT ####018004533#### FXUS63 KLBF 091132 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 532 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong westerly winds this afternoon of 25 to 35 mph gusting up to 55 mph mainly near and west of Highway 83. - A fast moving cold front moves through this evening, with northwest winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. The strongest winds tonight are expected near and east of a line from Valentine through Broken Bow. - Light precipitation, mainly in the form of light snow will be possible at times Wednesday night through Saturday morning. Little to no impacts are expected. - Much colder temperatures arrive Friday through Sunday with values as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Wind chill values below zero each morning, mainly across north central Nebraska. Above normal temperatures expected to return Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A strong clipper system will track from North Dakota today, into southern Minnesota this evening. This will bring strong westerly winds this afternoon from 25 to 35 mph with gusts up top 55 mph to areas mainly west of Highway 83. The GFS bufkit sounding shows the strongest winds aloft of 55 kts at 800mb. Mixing down winds as strong as this support wind gusts up to 55 mph across the western Sandhills. Very warm H85 temperatures of 10 to 13C also support mild high temperatures from the upper 50s to mid 60s (20 to 25 degrees above normal). Will see increasing mid and high clouds into the afternoon as a cold front moves into northern NE late afternoon. Tonight, a cold front will move quickly through the forecast area this evening. Windy across the west 20 to 35 mph, while very windy for areas near and east of a Valentine through Broken Bow line tonight. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. The HREF ensemble does show a 50 to 60 percent probability of gusts up to 55 mph, so will continue to monitor. A High Wind Warning is not expected this afternoon into tonight, as most gusts should range from 40 to 50 mph, with a few gust up to 55 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Northwest winds quickly diminish Wednesday morning, with a weak pressure gradient and surface high pressure over the area. A glancing blow of cooler air with highs from the mid 30s far northeast zones to the upper 40s far southwest. A disturbance moving from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in northwest flow aloft to bring a slight chance for a rain/snow mix to the northwest Sandhills in the afternoon. Low chance POPs for light snow Wednesday night north central. Little accumulation expected. A strong push of warmer air into the area Thursday as surface low pressure deepens from eastern WY into western NE. Highs return to 55 to 65 across the west to the 40s northeast. A cold front moves through Thursday night with colder highs Friday from the low to mid 20s north, to 30s southwest. Just a slight chance for light snow northern NE during this time. A reinforcing shot of cold air Saturday with only teens in the northeast and 30s southwest. Confidence for even colder temperatures Saturday, as the operational ECMWF shows temperatures as cold as the single digits and teens! Still a slight chance for light snow northern Nebraska Friday night into Saturday morning. Warmer air poised to return Sunday as strong arctic high pressure moves into the Mississippi Valley. High may warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s west, with 40s to low 50s by Monday as a large upper ridge over the Rockies builds into the region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The main aviation concern will be strong gusty winds from late this morning into tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Westerly winds will gust to 30kts at KLBF from 18Z into the evening hours. At KVTN, westerly winds will gust to 38kts this afternoon. Winds turn northwest early this evening with gusts to 35kts at KVTN and 30kts at KLBF this evening. Winds gradually diminish toward the end of the TAF period. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Roberg ####018003694#### FXUS64 KCRP 091133 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 450 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Below freezing dewpoints have crawled in from the north into the rural cold drainage areas from La Salle to Victoria counties. These lower dewpoints will enhance the potential for freezing temperatures over the next couple of hours in the aforementioned area. A few mesonet sites across that stretch of counties have reporting freezing temperatures already. A Freeze Warning is now in effect through 8 AM for the rural and cold drainage areas from La Salle County to Victoria County. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Warming trend through the week ahead of the next cold front. - Dense morning fog possible by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Not much of a change from the previous forecast package with generally benign weather conditions prevailing through late week. Models continue to disagree on timing and strength of the next frontal boundary over the weekend. However, there is some agreement on a mid-level shortwave trough and surge in high pressure Wednesday to Thursday period, resulting in a brief wind shift to an offshore component. Rain chances return along the coast and over the marine zones late week into the weekend as the surface high drifts eastward and moisture begins to increase again across the area. After a cold start to the day today with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s, a warming trend will begin this afternoon as weak onshore flow resumes. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 70s to low 80s daily into the weekend ahead of the next cold front. Fog probabilities increase to a medium chance by Wednesday morning (SREF 30-60%), and continue nightly through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions this cold morning will continue through the forecast. Winds will remain light below 10 knots under clear skies. There is a low to medium (30-50%) chance of fog developing over the inland Coastal Plains, potentially impacting ALI/VCT from 10-14Z Wednesday morning. Confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Winds will gradually shift onshore today but will remain at gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) levels through late week. Another cold front is expected by the weekend along with a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will dip below 30% daily through mid week, mainly across the Brush Country. However, due to low ERC and generally weak to moderate winds, confidence is low for any elevated fire weather conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 52 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 69 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 72 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 48 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 67 56 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 71 50 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 60 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ229>234. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANM/88 AVIATION...EMF/94 ####018007545#### FXUS61 KOKX 091133 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 633 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the area this morning shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the north tonight. A stronger low approaching on Wednesday will pass to the north and send a cold front through the area Wednesday night. High pressure will then build southeast from the northern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon. A series of clipper lows will pass close by Friday night into Saturday night. An Arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points: * Warmer today, but still around 10 degrees above normal. * A slight chance (20 percent) of light snow inland and light rain or snow at the coast across southeast Connecticut and eastern LI tonight. Any precipitation will be brief. No accumulation expected. Weakening high pressure slides across the area this morning and then offshore this afternoon. A weakening clipper low over the Great Lakes today will pass well north of the area tonight. Weak warm advection ahead of the system and limited moisture will combine for a slight chance (20%) of light snow inland and light rain or snow at the coast across southeast CT and eastern LI. While warmer today, high temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 20s inland to the lower and and mid 30s along the coast. The highest temperatures will likely come this evening into the overnight with a strengthening southerly flow between low pressure and the offshore high. Coastal locations may even see gust up to around 20 mph overnight, which will push temperatures above freezing. The interior will rise, but remain below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Much warmer on Wednesday with highs getting into the 40s with the exception of locations well north and west of NYC. * Deepening low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring a chance of snow or a rain/snow mix across inland locations. A changeover to rain is expected. Best chance for a minor accumulation will be across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Western Passaic in NJ. * A return to below normal temperatures Thursday. A progressive southern branch of the polar jet will send Pac jet energy into the Midwest, while additional shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex over eastern Canada allows some phasing of the two streams. The result will be a deepening low that tracks across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday, passing well north and west into eastern Canada Wednesday night. Warm advection and upper jet dynamics will produce a light precipitation event across the area, with liquid equivalent amount of 1-2 tenths. Thus, any snow accumulation inland is expected to be minor with the highest amounts across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and western Passaic in NJ. These locations could see up to an inch in spots. A complete changeover to rain is still expected but there has been a slight cooling trend over the last 24h. Coastal locations will see all rain from the start. Temperatures are also forecast to get above freezing everywhere. SW winds will continue ahead of the system and remain gusty at the coast. Weighed in some NBM90th for stronger winds based on 00Z vertical wind profiles from the GFS and NAM (which have been consistent with this). Conditions then dry out Wednesday night with some light precipitation possibly lingering into the evening. Following a cold frontal passage, lows will drop into the upper 20s inland and the lower 30s at the coast by daybreak. Below normal temperatures and gusty WNW flow will follow on Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph likely. Once again, leaned toward the NBM90 as the NBM in cold advection and westerly flow is often deficient. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 30s with lows Thursday night in the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points: * Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week. * A clipper low may bring light snow or flurries to the area Friday night into early Saturday. Another system will bring a chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some of the 00Z guidance is showing the potential for a more substantial system. * Another shot of Arctic air arriving behind low pressure Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure shifts through the region today, and offshore tngt. Mainly VFR. There is a low chance that MVFR could reach SWF aft 15Z Wed, but the prob is too low to include in the TAFs attm. N winds mainly under 10kt through the morning push, except light and variable away from the city terminals. Winds eventually become southerly this afternoon before veering more SW tonight and increasing. Gusts 20-25kt for the coastal terminals tonight. Winds strengthen a bit aft 14Z Wed. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: MVFR or lower develops with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley. Then a chance of rain during the late afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30kt possible. Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt. Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt. Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20- 25 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale watch has been posted for all waters Wednesday in a strengthening S/SW flow. This will be preceded by SCA tonight. There is even a possibility for occasional gale force gusts on the ocean waters tonight. Gust potential Wednesday looks to be around 40 kt on the ocean waters and around 35 kt on the Sound and Bays. During this time, leaned toward the NBM90, which may be underdone still. 00Z GFS and NAM soundings show potential for a period where gusts may get up to 45 kt on the ocean waters. Seas are forecast to get as high on 8-13 ft on the ocean waters Wednesday. SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching minimal gale force. Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late Fri into Fri night will be short lived. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ ####018003545#### FXUS64 KMEG 091133 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs near normal by Wednesday. - Colder air will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. - Low chance (20-30%) for rain Saturday afternoon and night ahead of the coldest air of the season. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 00Z upper air analysis continues to show an upper-level ridge along the West Coast of the United States while an upper-level trough axis persists over the Central and Eastern U.S. Surface analysis this evening places a 1026 mb surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley. GOES Night/Fog product shows low stratus over North Mississippi beginning to show signs of redeveloping back north overnight. Temperatures as of 9 PM CST are predominantly in the 30s areawide. A gradual warming trend is expected into Wednesday as the surface high moves east and southerly winds return on the backside of high pressure. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s for Tuesday and into the 50s for Wednesday. This warmup will be short- lived as another cold front will drop into the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will bring a slight cool down to the area for Thursday with the cooler air mass retreating back north for Friday. Long-range deterministic and ensemble solutions now indicate the coldest air of the season will arrive across the Mid-South late this weekend into early next week behind a strong arctic cold front. Models have trended slightly warmer over the past 24- 48 hrs as the coldest air is expected to remain over portions of the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this arctic cold front, there is a low chance (20-30%) for overrunning precipitation to develop across the Mid-South from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Most of this precipitation is anticipated to fall as light rain with confidence lower for light wintry precipitation as precipitation departs and the coldest air arrives for late weekend into early next week. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be mostly in the 20s, especially along and north of the TN/MS border. Highs on Sunday will range from the 30s north to the lower 40s southeast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The MVFR deck covering MEM and TUP continues to move slowly north and has reached MKL. An increase in mixing by this afternoon will help to clear out and break up the deck with VFR conditions expected to return by mid-afternoon (moderate confidence). Light SSW winds will increase and become gusty this afternoon, continuing into tonight. There is high confidence that LLWS will increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Dry conditions and light 20ft winds will continue through the remainder of the period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM ####018007604#### FXUS62 KMHX 091133 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 633 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift NE away from the area with high pressure building into the area through tonight. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Key messages... - Patchy black ice possible early this morning across the coastal plain. - Cool and mainly dry today. Low pressure continues to push away from the area early this morning and precip has ended for the most part, although KMHX radar continues to show a few light returns across ENC. Low stratus persists across ENC with temps around 30 across the western coastal plain to lower 40s across the OBX. CAA continues to bring breezy north winds and will see temps drop into the mid 20s across inland areas to 30s coast by daybreak. Below freezing temps will bring a concern for black ice across areas where moisture lingers on roadways through the morning commute. Areas most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. High pressure builds into the area today bringing decreasing winds and clearing skies through early afternoon. Generally dry conditions today although several HighRes models show weak low level convergence along and just off the OBX today with a few light showers persisting, mainly through the morning hours with convergence weakening this afternoon. A weak shortwave approaches this afternoon bringing increasing high clouds. Temps will be around 15 degrees below normal today with highs in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...High clouds clear mid to late evening as a weak shortwave pushes east of the area. Sfc high pressure centered across the area this evening will push swd after midnight as another shortwave and attendant front/trough approaches the area. Light/calm winds with clear skies overnight will bring good radiational cooling conditions and expect lows in the mid 20s inland to 30s along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... Key messages... - Gusty winds and warmer Wednesday ahead of a dry frontal boundary - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday Wednesday and Wednesday night...A robust northern stream shortwave approaches the East Coast Wednesday with the attendant surface low pushing across the Great Lakes and trailing cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night. Will see increasing mid and high clouds but moisture is quite limited with this system and not expecting any precip. Tightening pressure gradients ahead of the front will bring SW winds with gusts to around 25-35 mph. SW winds will also bring a nice warm up with high expected in the mid to upper 50s. The front pushes through Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and lows expected in the mid 30s inland to around 40 coast. Thursday through Friday...High pressure builds in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry conditions and mainly sunny skies, although dampening shortwave may bring increasing high clouds on Friday. Below normal temps continue with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and low Thursday night in the mid 20s inland to 30s coast. Saturday through Monday...09/00z guidance has yet another robust northern stream shortwave approaching the area Saturday and pushing across the area Sunday with a sfc low refection lifting across VA and the attendant cold front pushing across ENC Sunday night. Moisture appears limited with this system with best forcing focused north of the area and don't expect much precip with this system at this time. Warmer temps Saturday and Sunday ahead of the front with highs in the 50s to around 60 and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Arctic high pressure builds in from the north behind the front with much colder air building back into the area early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM Tuesday... Key Messages... - VFR conditions return today and are expected to persist through the period Low clouds have begun eroding from northeast to southwest across ENC as of early Tuesday morning, with improvements to VFR conditions noted at both PGV and EWN. Expect remaining TAF sites of ISO/OAJ to lift to VFR conditions within the next hour as clouds continue to erode amidst subsidence aloft and drier low-level air working its way into the region. Once skies clear this morning, expect light and variable winds through the day with only a modest increase in high clouds this afternoon/evening as a weak mid-level impulse swings through the mid-Atlantic. Moisture will remain too limited for any precipitation or low-level cloud cover though. Winds calm for the early part of the overnight hours before backing to southwesterly after midnight. A small camp of guidance shows a low-end chance of patchy fog Wednesday morning, but light winds and drier low-level conditions are expected to preclude any fog threat at this time. Outlook: VFR conditions largely persist until this weekend. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - Winds and seas gradually diminish through tonight. - Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night with Small Craft Advisories expected most waters and Gales near the Gulf Stream. Today and Tonight...Winds and seas gradually diminish across the waters through tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Gales near the Gulf Stream will end shortly. Winds expected to drop below SCA criteria by mid morning, however elevated seas will keep the SCA continuing through the evening for the coastal waters, and into Wednesday for the central waters. Wednesday and Wednesday night...SW increase quickly on Wednesday ahead of a frontal system with SCA conditions developing across most of the waters and Gales possible near the Gulf Stream, especially in gusts. Have issued a Gale Watch for late Wednesday and Wednesday night for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front will push across the waters Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and gradually diminishing late. Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds across the waters Thursday and Friday, then slides off the coast Saturday. Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing into Saturday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...ZC MARINE...SK ####018003654#### FXUS64 KOHX 091134 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 534 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Look for warmer temperatures and breezy conditions today and Wednesday. - Colder air will arrive by the weekend, although expected temperatures won't be nearly as frigid as previously thought. - Rain chances through the weekend will be very low. There are somewhat better rain chances next weekend, but 7-day QPF values are less than 1/4" across all of Middle Tennessee && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes is the dominant feature affecting our weather this evening. A surface ridge situated to our west will shift eastward by tomorrow morning, and all indications are that we can expect a break in what has seemed like a perpetual overcast, particularly during the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will be several degrees warmer than what we have been experiencing as we pick up some much-needed return flow. A cold front is expected to sweep across Middle Tennessee on Wednesday, although rain chances are very low owing to a paucity of antecedent moisture. Still, temperatures will drop back down starting Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A second cold front is poised to push across the region on Friday and Friday evening, and this one is going to be painful, as temperatures are likely to bottom out several degrees below seasonal norms this weekend (although not as frigid as what the NBM was suggesting 24 hours ago). Still, look for light rain to develop late Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday. Obviously, we will have to monitor for possible wintry weather since temperatures will drop below freezing Sunday morning, with daytime highs on Sunday possibly not even making it out of the 30s. Slightly better rain chances look to impact Middle Tennessee early next week, along with warmer temperatures, although 7-day QPF values are rather anemic. While the 6-10 day outlook continues to favor below normal temperatures, the 8-14 day outlook suggests a warmer pattern for cold-weary Middle Tennessee. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Clouds are on the increase this morning, but the bulk of clouds are mid-level per obs off to the west. Satellite trends have been favoring less low cigs this morning, so trimmed that back from the previous TAF. Best chance for any MVFR cigs at BNA and MQY are 14-18z. Otherwise, expecting increasing S to SW winds through the morning, with afternoon gusts 15-20 kts. The end of the period should remain VFR, but a strengthening LLJ led to mention of LLWS at all airfields beginning 06z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 51 40 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 50 40 53 27 / 0 10 10 0 Crossville 45 34 48 25 / 0 0 10 10 Columbia 49 38 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 46 35 51 27 / 0 10 10 10 Jamestown 46 35 48 26 / 0 10 20 10 Lawrenceburg 49 38 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 49 38 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 48 38 53 27 / 0 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Sizemore ####018005442#### FXUS63 KGID 091134 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 534 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A very pleasant day is expected across the area with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. - Gusty northwest winds arrive behind a cold front this evening/tonight, gusting 30-40mph. Gusts of 45-50mph can't be ruled out north of Highway 92. - Near normal on Wednesday (highs 40s), with a large spread in highs possible on Thursday (highs 40s to upper 60s). - Seasonably cool this weekend with highs in the 20s to low 30s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 338 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Temperatures this morning are sitting in the upper 20s to upper 30s under partly cloudy skies. Aloft the area is under northwesterly flow, with the next shortwave/disturbance traversing through the northern Rockies. A very pleasant day is in store for the area under mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies. Similar to Monday, west-southwest winds will favor downslope warming and result in temperatures on the higher end of model guidance. Highs today will range from the mid 50s (northeast) to the mid 60s (southwest). Most areas reach the 50s by noon! Winds will be breezy gusting 20-30mph, strongest northwest of the Tri-Cities. Breezy winds and warm temperatures could result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon west of Highway 183. A cold front dives into the area this evening, with scattered sprinkles/light rain possible along/behind the front. Winds quickly ramp up behind the frontal passage, gusting 30-40+mph, strongest along/north of Highway 92 where gusts of 45-50mph can't be ruled out. Gusty winds continue throughout the overnight hours. After sunrise, winds gradually decrease as the pressure gradient lessens over the area with gusts falling below 15mph by the afternoon. A cooler but still seasonable day is expected on Wednesday as highs climb into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Roller coaster temperatures continue on Thursday as a stationary/warm front lifts north across the area. There remains some uncertainty on the exact position of the front, which will have a large impact on Thursday's highs. GFS and ECMWF ensembles indicate a 15-20 degree spread in high temperatures across central/northeastern portions of the area due to the uncertainty on the location of the front. Along/north of the front, highs will be confined to the 40s. South/southwest of the front in the warm sector, highs soar into the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s! Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with much colder air pushing into the area Thursday night/Friday, setting up for a cold weekend with highs in the 20s to low 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Skies have cleared across the area, and westerly winds are pushing temperatures into the 40s and 50s. This continues tomorrow, with stronger westerly winds pushing temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the area. The most intense winds are expected to remain over western Nebraska and South Dakota, but locally gusts could still reach the 30 MPH in many areas. Clouds increase late Tuesday, but any precipitation associated with a clipper system should remain safely to our north and east. Northwesterly winds will increase as a cold front pushes through the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Gusts around 40 MPH will be possible in northern areas to start the day on Wednesday, but will gradually diminish through the day. Wednesday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass (but not particularly cold by December standards). There is still a low chance (20-30%) for light precip (mainly snow) in northern areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the trend has been downward on global ensembles runs. Another quick-moving upper-level shortwave brings another opportunity for flurries or light snow to the area Thursday night, but otherwise the forecast remains quiet and dry through the weekend and into next week. In fact, The GEFS and EPS ensembles indicate a 50-90% chance of seeing LESS than 0.10" of QPF through the next 10 days. The shortwave Thursday night will push some colder air into the region for Friday through the weekend. Single digit lows and high temperatures in the 20s are expected for much of the area (a touch warmer in the south and southwest). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through TAF period. West-southwest winds increase during the mid-late morning hours. Sustained winds around 15kts with gusts of 20-25kts are possible during the late morning-early afternoon hours. Gusts calm slightly during the late afternoon. A cold front moves through during the evening hours, with gusty Northwest winds expected behind the front. Sustained winds of 20-25kts, gusting 30-35kts or more are expected throughout much of the overnight hours. LLWS will also develop as winds increase tonight, with winds of 45-55kts not far from the surface (1000-2000ft). && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Davis DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Davis ####018008344#### FXUS61 KBTV 091134 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 634 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a cold start to the morning, temperatures will quickly rise today as southerly flow develops. Widespread light snowfall will move through tomorrow into tomorrow night, with accumulations generally expected to be in the two to five inch range. The colder and active pattern will continue into next week with a few additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Mostly ideal radiational conditions have developed tonight, causing temperatures to drop quickly. Everywhere outside the areas immediately along Lake Champlain have fallen below 0, with many areas outside the broad valleys around and below -10. Temperatures will drop a few more degrees in most places before the night is over. While southerly flow will begin to develop late in the night, it should not have a significant effect on impeding the radiational cooling. While this cold is uncommon for the time of year, it is not unprecedented. Plattsburgh looks to have broken two record lows already. It was -11 right at 1159/1200, breaking the -7 record on 12/08 and the -10 record on 12/09. The cold temperatures and relatively light winds have allowed a lake cloud to develop on the mostly unfrozen Lake Champlain. It has formed over the southern waters and it will gradually expand northward as the night goes on. It may move into areas adjacent to the lake in the early morning. Increased southerly flow and associated mixing/drying, along with warming temperatures, should cause it to dissipate during the day. An area of warm air advection aloft will move through this evening and cause a period of light snow. Very dry low levels will likely cause a lot of it to evaporate before it reaches the ground, but there should still be some very light snow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...A quick moving storm system moves through Wednesday and Wednesday night, tracking up the St. Lawrence Valley. Warm air advection should cause a quick period of moderate to heavy snow on the front end. Here, snowfall rates could briefly reach around an inch per hour. The snow will become lighter for the rest of the day and into the night, and a dry slot moves in for the evening. Strong southwesterly winds will cause downsloping and mostly end the precipitation in the Champlain and Connecticut valleys in the afternoon. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range are possible in the Champlain Valley as enough of a southerly component and an inversion below ridgetops should allow for efficient channeling. Temperatures will rise slightly above freezing in the broad valleys, but steep lapse rates should mostly keep the precipitation snow. As the center of the low passes to the east, northwest flow develops and it should cause a brief period of upslope snow Wednesday night. Overall, totals in the two to five inch range are generally expected. The lake effect band should stay to the south of our northern New York zones, though the moisture will still enhance totals in the central and southern Greens. Drier conditions should prevail during the day Thursday, but moisture looks to back down from the north and reinvigorate the upslope snow in the evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Primary highlights for the long term include upslope snow showers on Thurs night into Friday, another light snow event on the weekend, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early next week. First item wl be a classic upslope fluff event on Thurs night into Friday, as progged 850mb temps fall btwn -12F and -20F with lingering 925mb to 500mb rh >70%. Latest GFS/ECMWF show the closed 700/500mb circulation becoming vertically stacked just north of the International Border, which should promote favorable 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 40 knots, resulting in additional upslope accumulating snowfall thru Thurs night. Have bumped pops into the high likely range for Thurs night with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of fluff, but localized 4 to 6 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak. We will continue to monitor depth of moisture to fine tune snowfall amounts, but moderately strong caa should help squeeze out remaining moisture in the mtns. Next fast moving clipper like system associated with positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof arrives late Sat into Sun. Did note the 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with sharpening trof and develops a slightly stronger area of sfc low pres along the mid Atlantic into southern New England. The GFS/UKMET and CMC show more of a clipper like system with a period of light snow late Sat into Sunday, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early next week. This airmass looks to be associated with bitterly cold wind chill values as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -22F and -25F with gusty northwest winds. Cold headlines are likely needed for Sunday night into Monday. This wl be an advection type of cold on Sunday night, followed by radiational cooling on Monday night into Tues with building sfc high pres. Given latest trends additional lowering of temps is likely on Sunday through Tuesday of next week, where highs may struggle to reach 10F in many spots on Monday, with values well below zero again on both Sunday and Monday nights. Cold air wl help to squeeze out a few upslope snow showers on Sunday into Sunday night, before column becomes too dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...GOES 19 IR satl and radar shows lake enhanced clouds and flurries impacting the central/northern CPV at this time. Based on crnt trends this activity should not impact either PBG or BTV this morning. Also, watching some lower clouds with MVFR cigs near KART, which may impact SLK for a few hours this morning, otherwise VFR conditions prevail at all sites thru 00z. Light snow with a trend toward MVFR vis and VFR cigs develops around 00z MSS and spreads into the CPV taf sites between 01-03z this evening. Mostly MVFR vis, but briefly heavier snow shower activity may produce 20 to 30 minutes of IFR, greatest potential is at SLK. Light snow end by 06z, with additional IFR light snow developing by 12z Weds at MSS. South to southwest winds increase 5 to 15 knots with localized gusts 15 to 20 knots this aftn. Outlook... Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Chance SN. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Taber EQUIPMENT...Team BTV