####018005108#### FXUS63 KLMK 091145 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 645 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Windy conditions are expected through Wednesday, with widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to 40 mph likely. * A cold front will bring rain to the region tonight before a separate system bring light snow Thursday night into Friday morning. * Cold temperatures are likely this weekend, but forecast temperatures have trended less cold. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Today, the surface high now sits east of Kentucky with a surface low over the western Great Lakes, producing a tight pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley. This will continue increasing winds through the morning before gusting to around 25-30 mph. Even with some high level cloud cover passing to the southeast overhead, high temperatures will quickly warm into the 40s. Tonight, a shortwave within the upper trough, sitting over the eastern half of the country, will dive straight for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. On the eastern side of the shortwave a surface low will get pushed from the Midwest to the Indiana/Michigan border while dragging a cold front just ahead of the shortwave. The front is expected to arrive in the CWA late Wednesday morning, but rain ahead of the front is expected to make it's way into our southern Indiana counties shortly after midnight and continue southeast across the CWA. The bulk of the rain is expected to come to an end by the early afternoon, but some light precipitation on the back side of the system could linger into the Wednesday night. With the low's position northeast of the area, the highest expected rainfall amounts will be over the northeastern part of the CWA where around 0.25" is expected. Amounts will taper off to the southwest, to around a trace near Bowling Green. By the time precipitation changes over to snow, only a few flurries are expected. With WAA advection remaining strong ahead of the front's arrival Wednesday morning, Tuesday night's lows are expected to only fall into the mid to upper 30s, but strong southwest winds are expected to quickly lift Wednesday highs into the mid 40s to low 50s before the cold front arrives. The cold front will bring CAA and drop Wednesday night's lows into the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Model agreement is looking better for the rest of the week. Thursday, surface high pressure extends up the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley behind the exiting cold front. There will likely be clouds overhead, but the day looks dry with winds slowly backing from the northwest to the southwest, ending CAA. Highs are expected to remain cool in the mid 30s to low 40s. Thursday night into Friday, northwest flow will bring its next slug of moisture to southern Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of a developing surface low. The current track has the main body of precipitation going through southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. With its current expected track a dusting to around 0.25" is expected northeast of a line from Lexington to Jeffersonville, Indiana, but a few isolated spots could see around a half of in inch. Being a couple days away, this could change, but with lows in the mid to upper 20s, snow is a safe bet. This weekend is still shaping up to be fairly cool, but the last two days have showed warmer temperatures in the data than a few days ago. Still, CAA will drop high temperatures on Sunday into the low 20s to mid 30s with lows Saturday and Sunday night in the low teens to low 20s, but now there is good agreement (at least for today) in a system arriving Saturday night. This system like last weeks that brought our larger snow has two parts. Moisture and cool temperatures dropping in from the northwest and Gulf moisture flowing up the Mississippi Valley into our area. Lets see if the cool forecast holds or the warming trend continues as temperatures are going to matter to see what kind of precipitation we get. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 644 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 All TAF sites are seeing VFR ceilings except RGA which is expected to see improvements soon. The rest of the day expect continued VFR cloud layers as southwest winds increase during the day. Gusts will continue tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Many of the sites are also likely to see some LLWS overnight with precipitation moving in from the northwest, arriving at HNB around 6z, SDF 8z, LEX 9z, and BWG and RGA by 12z. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...KDW ####018010447#### FXUS63 KDLH 091146 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 546 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow and freezing drizzle will taper off this morning. - The next clipper will arrive late this morning through the afternoon and will bring heavy snow to areas generally south of US-2. - Winter Weather Headlines were extended north in Minnesota and the Winter Storm Warning in NW WI was expanded. End times from the I-35 corridor east were extended. - A period of several hours of heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour is expected late this afternoon through this evening. - Freezing drizzle may follow the snow early Wednesday morning. - Cold temperatures and additional chances of precipitation are expected later this week into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 SUMMARY OF HEADLINE CHANGES - Winter Weather Advisory for portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota remains in effect until 6 AM today. - Winter Weather Advisory for this afternoon and tonight was adjusted north to include Itasca, central St. Louis, and southern Lake county areas. - Winter Storm Warning was expanded north in northeast Minnesota to include northern Cass, northern Aitkin, Carlton/South St. Louis counties. - Winter Storm Warning timing for Pine and Carlton/South St. Louis counties was adjusted. Starts at 20Z today and ends at 12Z Wednesday. - Winter Storm Warning for Burnett County was extended until 15Z Wednesday. - Winter Storm Warning in northwest Wisconsin was expanded to include Douglas, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price Counties. Time was extended to 15Z Wednesday. - Winter Weather Advisory for Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties was extended to 18Z Wednesday. ---------- The first of two clippers is departing the Northland this morning. As the higher altitude clouds depart, the lower altitude liquid droplet clouds remain. Therefore freezing drizzle has been observed after snow ended across much of the Northland. GOES-East night microphysics product reveals clear skies northeast of a line from near International Falls to near Two Harbors. Another area of low stratus was moving southeastward toward the Arrowhead and may provide another burst of freezing drizzle. Minor ice accumulations are possible from the freezing drizzle which may make roads, sidewalks, bridges, and elevated surfaces slippery. Otherwise look for conditions to improve for a time this morning before the second clipper arrives. The big story with this forecast package is the second clipper system which will arrive from the west this afternoon and tonight. The system is fast moving with complicated dynamics and abundant moisture available from an atmospheric river which is impacting the Pacific Northwest. This forecast is definitely not easy and has a high potential to bust both to the low side of forecast snow amounts north of US-2 and to the high side south of US-2. The NAM solution is farther north today than yesterday morning while the global models have come into better alignment. Thaler QG omega is quite strong from all the models with an area of 20 to 30 mb/hr ascent this afternoon and tonight. Frontogenesis will be aligned generally along the same axis. NAM and GFS cross sections reveal an area of 8 to 12 microbar per second omega co-located with the strongest FGEN and ample moisture. Very efficient snow crystal growth is expected where those parameters intersect. Look for several hours of 0.5 to 1.5 inch per hour snow rates generally near and south of US-2. Those rates should move across central Minnesota between 3 and 6 pm and over northwest Wisconsin between 6 and 10 pm. On the other hand, the global models are bringing in strong dry air advection on the north side of the low track which will likely eat into snow totals. The greatest impact to snow totals should be north of the zone of strongest ascent, mainly along and north of US-2. Snow amounts in those areas may end up several inches too high if there's enough dry air to limit snowfall to only a few hours. Grand Rapids to Duluth are right in the zone where there may be a tight gradient in snow amounts. If the strongest forcing develops just a little farther south (20 to 40 miles) the higher snow amounts will be in MPX's area. High-res CAMs are pointing to a convergent band of snow developing over the western arm of Lake Superior early Wednesday morning. The convergence is subtle. As we saw this morning and a few weeks ago, the CAMs do an OK job catching onto these narrow and usually transient bands of convergence and subsequent snowfall. The consensus is for the band of snow to impact the Twin Ports from around 2 am until 4 or 5 am Wednesday. That would be after the main synoptic snow had ended. The additional snow accumulation from that band has the potential to boost the event snow totals at Duluth. The convergent band will continue to sweep southeastward during the morning adding to snow totals in northwest Wisconsin. Lake-effect snow may develop as winds turn northwesterly Wednesday morning which would allow light snow to persist over Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties through the morning. There is also a potential to see a period of freezing drizzle Wednesday morning as the upper-level moisture advects east faster than the low-level moisture, a scenario similar to this morning. If the freezing drizzle develops and persists, headlines may need additional extensions tomorrow morning. In the end snow amounts have ticked up a little bit with this forecast. We now have a swath of 5-7 inches from Cass County to Price County. For the Twin Ports, Cloquet and areas south along I-35 have the greatest potential for higher end amounts. Duluth may only see 4-6 inches. There are some challenges in where the enhanced upward vertical motion will develop. One of the models keeps Duluth largely out of the snow! We extended the headlines for this afternoon and Wednesday north one tier of counties in Minnesota and extended the Winter Storm Warning east into Wisconsin. Since Ashland, Bayfield, and Iron counties have higher snow thresholds for a warning, we left them in an advisory. We also added a few hours to the Carlton/South St. Louis, Pine, Burnett warning. The I-35 corridor is now until 6 AM Wednesday and Burnett is 15Z along with the rest of the NW WI counties in the warning. We extended the Advisory for NW WI until 18Z to account for additional light snow and lake effect Wednesday morning. Attention then turns to the latter portion of the week. Another clipper is forecast to pass to our south Thursday and early Friday. The passage of that low pressure system will reinvigorate the cold air advection over the Northland for Friday into the weekend. By Saturday we may see highs straddling zero. Cold weather headlines may be needed later this week into the weekend. The cold air will bring another chance of light snow Friday. The clipper parade persists into next week with another shot of snow Sunday night and Monday. Some models are indicating a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday which would see temps above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 546 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Areas of freezing drizzle and flurries persist this morning and are expected to dissipate by late morning. GOES-East night microphysics imagery reveals an area of potential freezing drizzle which persists for several hours after snow ends. Ceilings may briefly improve to MVFR before the next clipper arrives late this morning into the afternoon. At the moment I think that's unlikely. That system will bring IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility. High snow rates of 0.5 to 1.5 inches per hour are expected from 21Z to around 00Z at BRD. There could be a period of freezing drizzle after snow ends. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 428 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back northeasterly and strengthen Tuesday evening and will become hazardous for small craft once again. Gales of 35 to 40 knots are forecast from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where a Gale Warning is in effect. Small Craft Advisories go into effect at 10 pm tonight for the remainder of the waters. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. Waves will build to 3 to 10 feet over the southwest arm and along the waters of the South Shore. As the clipper departs on Wednesday winds will back northwesterly and diminish. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the North Shore from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Cold air moving over the high terrain will likely lead to katabatic winds from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. Wind and waves will then relax for Thursday before increasing again on Friday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-026. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ018>020-026. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ025-033>036. Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ037-038. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ001-006>009. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Wednesday for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-142>148-150. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140-141. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Huyck ####018006237#### FXUS61 KRNK 091146 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 646 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass across the central Appalachians today, resulting in dry weather in the wake of Monday's Mid-Atlantic snowfall. A cold front will pass across the region on Wednesday night into Thursday, triggering another round of snow showers that will mainly impact the mountains, particularly the higher ridges from southeast West Virginia through the High Country of North Carolina. Another disturbance has the potential to bring a mixture of mountain rain and snow on Friday, followed by a strong cold front during the coming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: 1) Decreasing cloud cover this morning as drier air arrives. 2) Highs in the low to mid 30s today will limit snowmelt. 3) Lows tonight in the mid 20s. Starting the morning off with lingering pockets of very light snow and/or freezing drizzle as temperatures have fallen into the low/mid 20s. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect until noon for northwest North Carolina given the potential for black ice on roadways, though any roads across the lower Mid-Atlantic have the potential for slick and locally hazardous conditions given yesterday's snowfall. Drier air continues to build in as cold high pressure advances southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic. The arrival of drier air will bring an end to lingering light precipitation by sunrise, with cloud cover decreasing through the morning. Given passage of this cold airmass, afternoon temperatures will peak in the low to mid 30s. This will somewhat limit any melting of snow and ice off of roadway surfaces, though any sunshine we receive today will help. The departure of high pressure tonight will allow winds to shift from the southwest, which will allow overnight lows to bottom out in the mid 20s by around midnight, with temperatures then subtlety warming through dawn Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: 1) A fast-moving cold front will bring upslope snow to the mountains on Wednesday night, with snow showers gradually diminishing on Thursday. 2) Confidence is increasing that a disturbance will bring another round of light snow on Friday into Friday night. After a dry period on Saturday, precipitation chances will increase again on Saturday as another strong cold front approaches from the west. Warmer air will arrive for Wednesday given windflow from the southwest as our next cold front approaches. Latest forecast data suggests that rain showers will make their way across the mountains during Wednesday afternoon, with rain changing to snow Wednesday evening as a strong cold front pushes rapidly east across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Latest data still supports snowfall totals of 1" to 3" falling from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening along the higher ridges from southeast West Virginia through the High Country of North Carolina, though totals in the 4" to 5" range are looking more probable across western Greenbrier County. Lesser totals are forecast eastward, mainly during Wednesday night, with the potential for flurries as far as the Parkway through dawn Thursday before snow gradually diminishes from east to west. With perhaps a brief period of dry weather Thursday night as weak high pressure passes overhead, another disturbance will approach from the upper Midwest on Friday, bringing yet another chance for accumulating snow for areas mainly north of the Virginia/North Carolina border. Given the limited moisture for this system to work with, snowfall accumulations are likely to remain light, but with coverage having the potential to spread well east of the mountains to include most of the Piedmont. Snowfall will come to an end late Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: 1) Arctic high pressure will bring to the region on Saturday and Sunday some of the coldest air so far for this winter season. The next round of impactful weather continues to evolve as the latest weather model data is coming into better focus that a strong cold front will approach on Saturday night into Sunday. This front will trigger another round of precipitation that will fall as rain initially, and then change over to snow as colder air arrives. Snow showers will have the potential to linger through Sunday night until the center of high pressure approaches from the west. It is noted that, while this airmass will bring unseasonably chilly air to the region, the associated temperatures do not appear to be as cold for the lower Mid- Atlantic as the forecast data was presenting 24 hours ago. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Tuesday... MVFR/IFR ceilings remain in place across much of the lower Mid- Atlantic this morning, with some airports reporting occasional light snow/freezing drizzle, or reduced visibilities in fog. These conditions will improve only gradually through sunrise, as high pressure builds in from the north. Some lingering MVFR possible until noon or so, but then expecting VFR thereafter. Winds will remain less than 10kts through the period, becoming more southwesterly tonight as high pressure moves to the south. .EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are likely through Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions return by Wednesday evening into Thursday for the mountains with upslope clouds and snow showers, which will likely last on and off into the coming weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...NF SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...BMG/NF/WP ####018005469#### FXUS63 KILX 091147 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 547 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwesterly winds gusting 40-50mph will accompany scattered rain and snow showers Wednesday morning. - A clipper system will bring a round of light snow by Thursday night into Friday morning...with the 00z LREF suggesting a 40-60% chance of greater than 1 inch of snow along and north of a Macomb to Robinson line. - Another surge of very cold air is expected by the end of the week...resulting in sub-zero apparent temperatures Friday night through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 As the pressure gradient tightens between a sprawling ridge over the E/SE CONUS and an approaching Alberta clipper, S/SW winds will increase and bring much milder air into central Illinois today. Despite the lingering snow cover, strong WAA and partial sunshine will result in afternoon high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s...with warmer readings in the middle 40s along/south of a Jacksonville to Effingham line. SW winds will continue to increase tonight, with numeric guidance and HRRR/RAP output indicating widespread gusts of 30-35mph from late evening through the overnight hours. Given the continued WAA, temperatures will slowly rise after dark...reaching the lower to middle 40s across the board by midnight. Meanwhile a band of rain showers will skirt through central Illinois as the main surface low passes well to the north across southern Wisconsin. The showers will be most numerous along/north of I-72 where 60-80 PoPs are warranted and will quickly push into Indiana before dawn Wednesday. As the low tracks further east, it will pull a cold front through the area Wednesday morning. 00z Dec 9 CAMs are showing a band of convective rain/snow-showers immediately behind the front. Given the tight pressure gradient and very strong winds aloft, the NAM/HRRR are suggesting NW wind gusts with the showers will likely reach 40-50mph. Motorists may need to keep an eye on the radar if traveling Wednesday morning, as the snow-showers will have the potential to significantly cut visibility for a time as they quickly traverse the area. The most significant showers will depart the KILX CWA by midday, with only a few lighter showers during the afternoon into the evening. Morning high temperatures will range from the middle 30s northwest of the Illinois River around Galesburg to the middle 40s south of I-70...with readings dropping into the lower to middle 30s everywhere by mid to late afternoon. Barnes .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Models continue to struggle with the next in a series of clipper systems slated to impact parts of the region late this week into the weekend. The 00z Dec 9 suite is beginning to hone in on the Thursday night into Friday morning time frame: however, the exact track is still in question. Have therefore kept PoPs quite low (20%) during the day Thursday, but have increased them into the 30-50% range for Thursday night. While the system will not have a lot of moisture to work with, a light accumulation of snow is likely. The 00z LREF shows a 40-60% chance of greater than 1 inch along/northeast of a Macomb...to Springfield...to Robinson line...with just a 10% chance of over 3 inches along/north of I-74. A second clipper will come into the picture by Saturday...with most guidance suggesting the highest probability of accumulating snow across Iowa into northern Illinois. Once this system exits, a bitterly cold airmass will settle into the Midwest through early next week. High temperatures will drop from the 30s on Friday into the teens for Saturday and Sunday. While wind-chill values will drop below zero across parts of the area by late Friday night, the coldest period will be Saturday night into Sunday when apparent temperatures will approach or exceed the -15F advisory criteria along/north of I-72. The extreme cold will begin to ease by Monday as boundary layer flow becomes S/SW and afternoon temperatures rise back well into the 20s and perhaps lower 30s in some spots. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 547 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Mostly clear skies will prevail this morning, followed by increasing mid-level clouds at 8000-10000ft from north to south across the area this afternoon. Scattered showers will push through central Illinois tonight as low pressure tracks across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Based on latest HRRR/RAP, have introduced predominant showers at KPIA between 02z and 07z and further east to KCMI from 06z to 09z. Further south, have only mentioned VCSH at KSPI/KDEC. Winds will initially be SW with gusts of 20-25kt through the afternoon, then will increase during the evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Have ramped up gusts to around 30kt accordingly. VFR conditions are expected for much of the 12z TAF period: however, MVFR ceilings are progged to spill into KPIA/KBMI after 08z/09z. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018009651#### FXUS65 KCYS 091147 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 447 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The long duration wind event continues, with wind gusts expected to peak today. While some breaks or lulls will occur, high winds will be a concern every day through Saturday. - Damaging winds are expected near and in the lee of southeast Wyoming mountain ranges through Tuesday afternoon. Gusts up to 90 mph are expected. - Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins, Wheatland, and Douglas can expect wind gusts up to 75 mph through the day today. - Wind gusts up to 65 mph are expected to spread into High Plains mid morning into the afternoon. - A cold front will bring a banded rain and snow showers late this afternoon through the evening. This will also bring a brief reprieve from the wind into Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 415 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Current GOES satellite imagery shows plentiful mid to upper level cloud cover racing inland across the northwest CONUS towards our area this morning. The powerful 150 knot jet streak aloft is nosing into our area this morning, supporting the ongoing high wind event. A strong upper level shortwave is riding along the north side of the jet streak, but has developed a potent lee cyclone over the Canadian Prairie. A surface trough trails south of this feature down to our area, which is dropping surface pressure over our plains and enhancing the MSLP gradient across the barrier. We have already been seeing gusts to around 75 mph in the typical wind prone areas so far this morning, but it is really just beginning. Gradients are expected to continue to climb through the morning, maximizing between about 9AM and noon or so. The plentiful cloud cover moving in makes it a little difficult to ascertain how much mountain wave activity is ongoing via satellite imagery, but forecast models continue to show a stable inversion layer developing around the mountain top height this morning. This should promote increasing mountain wave activity and wave breaking into the early afternoon hours. These breaking waves will be what will be needed to realize the 80 to 95 mph gust potential from this event. Overall, the event looks on track. As we head into the late morning and afternoon hours, 50 to 60 knot winds at 700-mb will spread over the High Plains. Forecast soundings show fairly well mixed boundary layers developing for a few hours during the afternoon, which should help mix these winds down to the surface and get the strong winds spreading into the Nebraska panhandle. The temporary reprieve from the wind is also still on track for this evening. The aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will race eastward this afternoon. Behind it, surface high pressure will fill in over the plains just in the lee of the Rockies. The front will reach our northernmost forecast zones by mid afternoon (a slight acceleration from previous forecast packages), reaching Cheyenne around 8PM or so. Once pressure starts rapidly rising over the plains, we should see a rapid drop off in the high winds across the area. That's not to say it will be calm, as the front will be accompanied by 35 to 50 mph northwest wind gusts, but the potential for 60+ mph winds will likely decrease behind the initial gusts along the front. We might have a gap even in the wind prone areas beginning around midnight. In addition to the break from the wind, this front will bring a brief window of lift and increased moisture content. Expect to see some banded rain and snow showers developing north of the North Platte River valley between 2PM and 5PM, then spreading south to the I-80 corridor this evening. Neither the lift nor the moisture looks impressive by any means though, so forecast precipitation totals are modest at best. That being said, these are expected to organize into a banded structure along a temperature gradient, so there is the possibility for quick visibility reductions. Temperatures will be shockingly warm ahead of this, such that most of the activity could be rain. However, confidence in remaining all rain is not very high, and this is worth a discussion since a flip to snow could certainly cause travel problems. In the mountains, moist orographic lift will resume midday today, and continue into Wednesday morning. The higher peaks could pick up several more inches of snow accumulation, so a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. The surface high will translate across the area into Wednesday morning. By around sunrise though, expect to see surface pressure falling once again right along the crest of the Laramie Range. Wind speeds will pick up again first in Carbon and Albany counties, and then gradually spread eastward through the afternoon. This time, the surface trough is not expected to advance much further east than I- 25, which should confine the second phase of this high wind threat to southeast Wyoming along and west of I-25. Pressure and height gradients will be impressive once again, but probably won't get quite as high as they are expected to today. Therefore, the wind gust potential during phase two Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night is not quite as high, but still at least a middle tier high wind event for our area. Currently, we are looking at another round of 70 to 80 mph gusts for the wind prone areas, and 60 to 70 mph gusts spreading into the adjacent zones. This will continue into Wednesday night and possibly Thursday. With this forecast package, the High Wind Watch for the remaining wind prone areas was upgraded to a warning and extended out through Thursday night. The other watches in southeast Wyoming were left as is with this update, mainly due to uncertainty in the end time of this phase of the event. Since we are still 30 hours or more away from the start of phase 2, we can let the watch continue for another cycle to get some better precision on the end time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 415 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Active northwest flow will continue into the upcoming weekend, creating forecast headaches all through the period. Expect the upper level ridge to amplify on Thursday, nudging the baroclinic zone and associated stationary front off to our northeast. Mild temperatures will flood into the area south of the boundary. Another shortwave trough aloft will pass north of the area sometime Thursday or Thursday night, and this will be followed by a surface high, wind shift, and cold front. This should nudge the stalled frontal boundary back to the southwest into Friday morning. Ensembles have come into better agreement keeping most of the frontogenesis off to our northeast Thursday night and Friday, but PoPs still creep into our northern and eastern zones. The front will also do the same thing as tonight's front and pause the high wind threat temporarily. Unfortunately, model guidance has recently been trending more aggressive with winds Friday into early Saturday as the ridge fluctuates overhead once again. While forecast uncertainty remains considerable during this period due to our proximity to the arctic front, it is looking more likely that we may have to tack on another day or two to this very long streak of high winds. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 441 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Very strong winds will impact aviation through the forecast period. This morning, expect significant LLWS at all terminals. Wyoming terminals are already seeing gusts approaching 50 knots, which will continue through much of the day. Gusts may exceed 60 knots mid morning into the early afternoon. In Nebraska, gusts will gradually increase this morning with potential for gusts between 40 and 50 knots between about noon and sunset. A cold front will sweep southward beginning with CDR around 21z and reaching CYS and LAR last 03z. Expect to see winds shift to the northwest behind this boundary. In addition, scattered banded rain and snow showers will be possible along and for about 2-3 hours after the frontal passage. Brief IFR could occur especially at RWL and LAR where precip type is more likely to be snow. In Nebraska, rain is the more likely precip type, but a quick shot of snow cannot be ruled out. Most terminals should get a break from the wind after midnight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ101-102- 104-105-108-109-119. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for WYZ101-107-118. High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for WYZ103-106- 107-113>115-117-118. High Wind Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday night for WYZ104-109. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for WYZ105-113-115. High Wind Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight MST Thursday night for WYZ106-117. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ110-116. NE...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...MN ####018003595#### FXUS65 KGJT 091148 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 448 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers are possible today and Wednesday in the northern Colorado mountains. The probability of 6+ inches of snow is around 60 percent across the high peaks of the Park Range with this system. - A general warming trend is expected, but the snow covered mountains valleys will see cold inversions set up overnight lasting through the days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 338 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Satellite imagery shows the atmospheric river (AR) impacting the Pacific Northwest extending west across the North Pacific to Midway Atoll driven by the ridging over the Eastern Pacific well off the California-Baja Coast and a low pressure system south of the Aleutian Islands. The extent of this AR concurs with the forecast that it will continue through the coming weekend. Models have generally been in good agreement with the Eastern Pacific High building east enough to push the AR remnants north out of the eastern Utah-Western Colorado region shutting down the snow showers across the north late Wednesday onward, but, with the latest model runs, they are suggesting the shortwave trough descending through the Pacific Northwest will brush the northern Colorado mountains late this afternoon into early tomorrow morning pulling the AR moisture far enough south to impact the higher elevations of the Park mountains. The nose of a jetstreak is supporting the shortwave with upper-level dynamics lending more credence to the forecast, but the stronger dynamics stay more to the north and east. The airmass also remains a very temperate with snow levels 7500ft to 8500ft. Look for the snow to fall between about noon today and noon tomorrow with the heaviest snow in the overnight hours. Considered an advisory for Zone 4, but held off since it's only limited to the higher Park Mountains, and areas of travel like Rabbit Ears Pass, the Elkhead and Gore Mountains, will see minimal if any impacts. Temperatures today will run 8-12 degrees above normal, and will warm yet a few degrees tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 114 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Upper level ridging drives the extended forecast. Late in the week high pressure will build over the Intermountain West leading to warming temperatures and little, if any, chance for precipitation Thursday through Sunday. If the forecast holds as is, much of the area will see multiple days of high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal for mid-December. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 432 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Currently high clouds are moving in across the region with mid level clouds intruding into northern Colorado. Look for lower clouds and showers at KHDN and the northern Colorado mountains after 18Z with snow levels starting at about 7500 ft, rising to 8500 ft by 12Z. Expect MVFR conditions at KHDN with passing showers. Stronger winds aloft across the northern areas will generate areas of Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) in the mountains from KASE north with some gusty west to northwest winds mixing down to the surface on the eastern slope of higher terrain. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...KAA AVIATION...DB ####018004929#### FXUS63 KAPX 091149 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 649 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow today with a general 1 to 3 inches of additional snow for most. - Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday. - Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Short wave and subsequent frontal boundary will move eastward through northern MI today, resulting in widespread accumulating snow. General thinking is for 1 to 3 inches throughout a majority of the region during the day today (heavier amounts across west Mack this morning), quickly diminishing from west to east through the afternoon hours. Low pressure system to our north will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, especially early in the day, resulting in periods of blowing snow in spots. Given the southerly winds and the falling/already accumulated snow across portions of western Mack early in the morning, significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible across US-2. Next trough will be right on this systems heels, as it dives to the southeast across the Upper Midwest through tonight. Response will be a sfc low pressure that moves across MN, WI, and the eastward into C- S MI. Consequently, accumulating snow will begin to spread across northern lower MI tonight on the northern side of this system. Read on for more details. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Day 2-3 (Wednesday - Thursday): As previously mentioned, short wave dives to the southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with subsequent low pressure system across the central - southern portions of MI. Still some subtle differences within the model guidance on the exact handling/phasing of the mid levels, which ultimately influences the low level height and sfc pressure fields. Consensus between between the GFS and ECMWF suggests a track across southern portions of MI, which would shift the QPF and subsequent heaviest snows a little to the south. Meanwhile, other pieces of guidance are a little farther north across central MI which would bring the accumulating snows farther northward. When investigating the ECMWF ENS MSLP low positions, there is still considerable spread in low pressure track, or how the low level height fields are being processed, at this time scale. One thing is for certain at this time, northern lower is at play for the steadiest snows, and especially south of M-32. Feel most comfortable with M-72 on southward for an advisory, based on some of the ensemble output with the highest probs for >3". This will likely be a ~2-6" snow event for our neck of the woods for the advisory locations. This system will quickly move to the east later Wednesday with northwest flow and cold advection in its wake. Thus, expect a transition to northwest flow lake effect snow showers later Wednesday into Thursday. Global guidance not spitting out a whole lot of QPF at this time, but the northwest snow belts will remain wintry through mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 648 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Accumulating snow will continue to move across northern Michigan this morning, dropping 1-2" across most areas by this afternoon. MVFR/IFR VSBYs are expected over the next several hours at most TAF sites as snow moves over, eventually improving by late morning/early afternoon. MVFR CIGs look to hold on for most of the issuance period at all TAF sites as another round of widespread accumulating snow moves in tonight and Wednesday. An additional several inches of snow is expected across much of northern lower Michigan, including TVC and MBL. Otherwise, gusty south winds this morning will eventually turn to west winds and weaken this evening. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025-031-086-098. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ095. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348- 349. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ321- 322. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...DJC