####018004744#### FXUS61 KCLE 181951 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 351 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... There were no changes needed with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late tonight through Wednesday. 2) An unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure today will gradually shift east as a weak cold front associated with a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest tonight. Light showers are possible beginning around midnight for the Toledo area and then spreading east into Wednesday morning. The best support for shower develop should be along and north of US-30 initially before becoming more widespread Wednesday afternoon/evening. The remains minimal thunder potential through Wednesday morning as the airmass remains fairly stable, but as diurnal heating increase into the afternoon chances of thunder will increase. At this point, given the disjointed timing between the upper level support and the surface heating, the severe potential remains limited. Conditions should dry out by Thursday morning as high pressure returns. Highs today through Thursday will be in the mid 70 to low 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The high pressure system impacting the area on Thursday and Friday will push east this weekend as a deepening trough and associated surface low are expected to impact the area. Models are becoming more consistent with the cold front pushing east late Saturday with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. This would put shower and thunderstorms across the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Although exact timing remains uncertain, given the strong dynamics including a strong upper level jet and vort max, will likely see thunderstorms at some point. If the best synoptic energy coincides with the best diurnal heating, some of these storms may become strong to severe. Will need to keep an eye on this system in the coming days to determine the potential severe risk this weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain consistent, climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s for highs and falling into the upper 50s to low 60s for overnight lows. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions are prevalent across the region. There are some diurnal clouds forming a broken ceiling from KFDY eastward at around 040-050. This will persist to around 00Z when an upper level ceilings moves into the region. Weakening showers are expected late tonight into early tomorrow morning that may impact terminals, though main impacts will be ceilings lowering to around 050. Showers should dissipate by KCLE and the eastern terminals will remain dry outside of KERI. Ceilings will progressively drop through the day tomorrow down to MVFR conditions and will last through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light through the TAF period, generally out of the northwest at around 5 knots this evening then shifting to the southwest at less than 5 knots overnight. Winds will shift back out of the west at 5-10 knots during the day tomorrow with the approaching cold front. Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Conditions across Lake Erie will remain fairly quiet as winds with be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots this evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight into Wednesday morning. Waves will be choppy, though the highest waves 2 to 4 feet will stay in the open waters with the near shore seeing 2 feet or less. Winds will shift to be northerly behind a cold front on Wednesday and diminish to 5 to 10 knots and persist through Thursday night. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet and possibly around 4 feet in the near shore with the front and right after, then will diminish. Friday, winds will shift to be southerly at 5 to 10 knots, then shift to be northwesterly late Saturday night behind a cold front, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. There will be potential for showers and thunderstorms across Lake Erie Wednesday and Saturday that could bring higher winds and waves within the storms. There is higher confidence in thunderstorms impacting the lake on Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...23 MARINE...23 ####018006204#### FXUS62 KMHX 181953 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 353 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a Heat Advisory for Wednesday for Pamlico, Craven, Carteret, Onslow, Jones, and Duplin counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot and humid temps persist across ENC into Fri. 2) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze through Thursday. 3) Next front tracks across the area Friday, ushering in a pattern change of relatively cooler and unsettled conditions. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions prevail this afternoon with NW flow keeping the sea breeze pinned to the coast. Temperatures have reached the mid 90s away from the immediate coast with upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Dew point temps in the mid to upper 70s have allowed heat indices to climb to around the 105-115 degree range. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remains in effect through 00z this evening. Wednesday will see slight relief from the heat with a frontal boundary stalling just off the coast overnight bringing N to NE winds into Wednesday morning before the sea breeze becomes dominant later in the afternoon. Temps expected in the upper 80s/lower 90s northern tier with heat indices peaking around 100-105, however southern sections of the forecast area will see temps reach the mid 90s with heat indices around 105-110 and have issued a Heat Advisory for Pamlico, Craven, Carteret, Jones, Onslow and Duplin Counties. A return to S/SW flow across the area Thursday will bring a greater area of heat indices around 105-110 and will likely see another Heat Advisory for much of the area. A frontal boundary drops into the are Friday bringing greater cloud coverage as well as coverage of storms and expect Heat Indices to remain below criteria. KEY MESSAGE 2...NW flow has kept the sea breeze pinned to the coast this afternoon with limited convection across ENC so far, however a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop across Mainland Dare Co. Additionally, widely scattered thunderstorms are pushing across NE NC associated with a subtle shortwave and weak cold front moving north of the area. Convection this afternoon is generally expected to be confined to coastal sections along the sea breeze and northern counties as the weak front drops into the area and should dissipate during the evening with loss of heating. The front weakens with the sea breeze becoming dominant and making a farther push inland Wednesday afternoon. Precip chances generally remain around 20-40% before chances decrease after sunset. Despite poor shear, high PWATs exceeding 2.25" are expected and a stronger cell could pose an isolated wet microburst threat. Otherwise, overall severe threat is low - less than 5%. Continued moist and unstable on Thursday with a mid level shortwave pushing across the region bringing a slight increase in shear to around 25 kt which may allow for stronger storms. SPC has a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms with damaging wind gusts the primary severe threat. KEY MESSAGE 3...Deeper trough begins to dig across the Ohio River Valley on Thursday and push towards the Eastern Seaboard on Friday and into the weekend with a cold front stalling across the region. Favorable jet dynamics, moist SSW flow aloft along with a series of shortwave trough the upper level trough will bring high chances of showers and thunderstorms late in the week and into the weekend. Greater cloud coverage will likely limited strong instability and storms are generally expected to be sub- severe, though heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat with PW values greater than 2". && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pred VFR conditions through the evening with isolated thunderstorms potentially bringing brief sub-VFR conditions, though most storms are expected to remain east of the TAF sites. A front will push south through the area this evening with weak N to NE flow developing. Guidance generally keeps fog potential fairly low, less than 30 percent but the chances for stratus is a bit higher with HREF probs for IFR cigs around 40-70 percent. Not all guidance develops stratus, however, and limited low cloud coverage to sct in the TAF for now. If stratus does develop, it will dissipate around mid morning. Widely scattered thunderstorms possible again Wednesday afternoon. Outlook (Wednesday night through Sunday): Pred VFR expected through Thursday though isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven seabreeze shower and thunderstorm activity may bring brief sub-VFR conditions. Another front begins to approach from the west Friday once again bringing increased shower and thunderstorm risks as well as increasing risks for sub-VFR conditions into this weekend. && .MARINE... Generally light winds across the waters through Wednesday with a weak cold front temporarily dropping into the area tonight into Wednesday morning bringing N to NE winds less than 15 kt. The front will dissipate Wednesday with the sea breeze becoming dominant bringing SE winds across the waters. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft. Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): Benign boating conditions persist through Wed and Thurs with eyes to next potential SCA Fri and into Sat with a stronger frontal boundary. Each day will bring a low to moderate risk (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms to area waters, with increasing chances into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>046- 079-080-091-092-193-203>205. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ047- 081-090-094-194>196-198-199. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ090-092- 094-193>196-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SK/RCF AVIATION...SK/RCF MARINE...SK/RCF