####018003652#### FXUS63 KDDC 190725 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 225 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (40-60%) continue late tonight into early Saturday. - Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is spreading southeast across the Dakotas into the Central Plains. Rain chances (40-60%) continue for portions of western Kansas late tonight as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting east out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level shortwave trough transitioning through the Desert Southwest. Although moisture/instability will be fairly limited, the potential for light rain picks up late in the period as mid-level moisture associated with the approaching system moves out of the Rockies, interacting with minimal H7 frontogenetic forcing in conjunction with a weak frontal boundary dropping southward out of southwest Nebraska into western Kansas. The best chance for very minimal precip amounts at best looks to be across west central and central Kansas where the HREF paints only a 10 to 20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch. Below normal temperatures are forecast again today with a colder air mass slow to erode as surface high pressure slides southeast through eastern Kansas, setting up a southeasterly upslope flow in western Kansas. With the HREF showing a 90 to 100% probability of temperatures exceeding 55F, but only a 20 to 40% probability exceeding 60F, look for highs pushing the lower 60s(F) this afternoon. Expect lows tonight back down into the mid/upper 30s(F) to near 40F. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Lingering rain chances (20-40%) early Saturday are forecast to dwindle through the evening with drier conditions taking hold to finish out the weekend Sunday into early Monday as medium range ensembles indicate an upper level shortwave trough pushing east through Texas while a broad surface high sliding southeast through the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas reinforces a much drier air mass across the region. Well below normal temperatures are expected Saturday as the aforementioned surface high settles in, holding H85 temperatures well below 10C. With the NBM 4.1 showing only a 20-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 50F, look for highs only up into the 40s(F) in west central Kansas to the 50s(F) farther east in south central Kansas. A significant warming trend is likely into the early part of next week as departing surface high pressure gives way to prevailing southerlies by Monday when the NBM 4.1 paints an 80 to 90% probability of highs exceeding 80F in extreme southwest Kansas to only a 20-30% probability in central Kansas. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites during the period. Light east-northeast winds overnight will turn more southeasterly generally after 12-14Z as a small area of high pressure moves southeast through the plains of eastern Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson ####018007427#### FXUS61 KPHI 190727 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near Nova Scotia will continue to shift east today. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will track through southern Canada as a trailing cold front sweeps across our area tonight. The front will eventually stall along the Southeast coast over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Central Plains. High pressure will build east with time through Tuesday, before another cold front approaches the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will then return on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... In the wake of a backdoor cold front, high pressure will remain centered near Nova Scotia and the Gulf of Maine with ridging extending southward across the Mid-Atlantic for Friday. However, an area of low pressure cutting across the Great Lakes will send a cold front across the Appalachians tonight, as that high pressure and ridging quickly gives way. A steep inversion with low clouds trapped across our region along with chilly northeast flow in the boundary layer will result in another generally gloomy day, though as the ridge shifts east, winds will turn more southeasterly, allowing for a little milder air to push in. Additionally, while the day will start off chilly with temperatures in the low to mid 40s for most spots, cloud bases will be noticeably higher along with an absence of any drizzle, compared to the damp conditions Thursday morning. The exception will be right around the Pocono Plateau and some of the adjacent ridgetops into NW NJ early this morning. Highs will reach farther into the 50s, with even some low 60s possible from around Philadelphia southward into the Delmarva. This afternoon as a weak pre-frontal shortwave trough and some isentropic lift combine, scattered light showers will begin to spread eastward across Pennsylvania, with isolated showers possibly reaching the I-95 corridor toward sunset. Scattered showers will then spread eastward across the coastal plain toward midnight, then gradually taper off from west to east, with just some lingering activity along the coast after sunrise on Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will only be around a tenth of an inch. Some patchy fog may develop at times overnight, but dense fog is not expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will be located offshore by Saturday morning leaving behind a few showers in its wake, mainly along the coast. All showers will come to an end by late morning giving way to a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon as high pressure builds over the High Plains. Despite the frontal passage, the front lacks any push of "cold" air, so while drier air follows in its wake, temps on Saturday will be relatively mild and seasonable. Model soundings continue to suggest that our boundary layer will be well-mixed with downsloping WNW surface flow, thus used the 850mb technique to get our high temps on Saturday. Mostly mid to upper 60s with a few spots (especially away from the coast) that may approach 70 degrees. Clear skies are expected for Saturday night with light winds. Will have to monitor the potential for some frost development across N NJ and the Lehigh Valley in which the growing season becomes active. For Sunday, the forecast remains tranquil and dry. High pressure over the Central CONUS will broaden as it extends its ridge axis east. Will have to keep eyes on a stalled boundary along the Southeast Coast on Sunday where an area of low pressure develops along it before moving into the western Atlantic. However, any shower activity is expected to remain south of the Delmarva. Otherwise, just an increase in clouds is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with temperatures running a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure located over the center of the country over the weekend will shift east on Monday before moving south of the area and offshore on Tuesday. At the same time, an area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes on Tuesday lifting into southern Canada Tuesday night. A trailing cold front associated with the low will bring a chance for some rain showers during the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe. Have continued to carry an areawide chance of PoPs (30-50%), with a targeted area of likely PoPs (up to 60%) across the Poconos and north Jersey. After the frontal passage on Wednesday, another area of high pressure builds over the Midwest allowing dry conditions to return for Thursday. Temperatures during the long term period will be near-normal through Wednesday. Thereafter, temps look to lean below-normal as upper trough settles over the Northeast late in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Today...Ceilings generally MVFR with unrestricted VSBY. Quite a bit of variability in ceilings though, ranging from 015-030 and even some low VFR possible at times. Those ceilings may continue to vary in that range much of today, so low confidence in the TAFs there. Light NE winds veering to more of a southeasterly direction around 5-10 kt by this afternoon. Some light showers coming into ABE/RDG in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front, potentially lowering VSBY to MVFR in the evening. Tonight...Ceilings lowering into the 008-015 range for the most part, with scattered showers spreading in from west to east across the I-95 terminals in the evening, reaching the coast by midnight. Rain will be light, but some MVFR VSBY possible at times in mist. Would not rule out some occasional IFR VSBY overnight with BR or patchy fog, especially ACY. Light SE to S winds. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Saturday...Lingering sub-VFR possible early with isolated showers, especially near KMIV/KACY, otherwise VFR expected. W-NW winds. Moderate confidence. Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR expected. W-NW winds expected through Monday night, becoming E-SE winds on Tuesday. No significant weather expected. High confidence. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect currently for all the ocean zones due to elevated seas from stronger NE winds on Thursday and Thursday night. SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters through late tonight as seas around 6-7 ft this morning gradually lower toward 5 ft into tonight. Otherwise, winds are gradually easing this morning, ENE 10-15 kt, tending SE 5-10 kt tonight. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday...Fair weather. No marine headlines expected. Winds up to 20 kt possible on Saturday night. Seas of 2-4 feet through Tuesday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...Dodd SHORT TERM...DeSilva LONG TERM...DeSilva AVIATION...Dodd/DeSilva MARINE...Dodd/DeSilva ####018004669#### FXUS65 KVEF 190727 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1227 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will move inland Friday bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the southern Sierra. Otherwise, dry conditions and temperatures climbing well above normal will continue through the weekend and early next week under a ridge of high pressure. The next area of low pressure will move inland middle to late next week resulting in gusty southwest winds and temperatures gradually retreating back to near normal. && .SHORT TERM...through Monday night. Area catching a short-lived break from the high clouds as guidance shows next area over central California will be on the increase as far east as Las Vegas by daybreak. HRRR, along with other members that make up the HREF show that the air mass will destabilize this afternoon as a result of slight cooling aloft associated with weak shortwave trough moving through southern California. Did blend in a small amount of camPoPs to better capture the slight chance for showers or thunderstorms along the southern Sierra on Inyo County. The shortwave trough continues east into Arizona tonight, with a broad ridge of high pressure from California east to Colorado/New Mexico Saturday-Monday. Temperatures will be well above normal, with the warmest days coming Sunday and Monday. Latest probability of MaxT exceeding 90 degrees at Las Vegas is 90% Sunday and Monday. Probability of MaxT exceeding 100 degrees at Furnace Creek is 95% Sunday and 90% Monday. Appears the lower CRV may be spared of widespread triple digits for now as the probability of MaxT exceeding 100 degrees at Lake Havasu City and Laughlin/Bullhead City is 25% or less Sunday and Monday. Only breezes today will be in the western Mojave Desert of San Bernardino County. Less wind over the weekend but expect those breezes to begin increasing across much of southern Nevada, eastern California and northwest Arizona Monday. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. Decreasing temperatures are expected through the long term period as a series of troughs move through the region. Gradual cooling will begin by Tuesday through temperatures will remain several degrees above normal, however, increasing southwesterly will bring gusty conditions to much of the area, especially in the afternoon and evening. Further cooling can be expected each day Wednesday onward, with high chances for temperatures falling below normal by Thursday. This means the Las Vegas area should finish of the week in the 70s with cool conditions continuing through the weekend. The strongest of the troughs appears to move through Friday into Saturday when the coolest conditions are expected. Moisture with these systems is expected to favor the higher terrain, particularly across the Great Basin and Sierra. However, gusty conditions can be expected each day as the unsettled weather pattern hangs over the region. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Generally light and diurnal winds anticipated through the TAF period. Chance of sustained winds reaching 10+ knots prior to 00z is 30%. After 00z, the chance of 10+ knots increases to about 50%, most likely from the south-southwest but there is a 20% chance of east winds of this magnitude from 00z to 02z. After sunset, winds settle into a southwesterly direction and persist through the night. SCT-BKN clouds around 20kft through the day, clearing out tonight. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light and diurnal winds in the Las Vegas Valley today, with 30-40% chances of 10+ knot sustained winds, increasing to 50- 60% after 00z. Light north or variable winds at KBIH until breezy northwest winds of 10-15 knots arrive in the late afternoon. Persist west winds at KDAG, increasing in magnitude around sunset. In the Colorado River Valley, light south breezes develop this afternoon with speeds around 8-10 knots. VFR conditions across the region with SCT-BKN high clouds generally above 15kft, but could get down to 10kft at KBIH. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pierce LONG TERM...Outler AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018007052#### FXUS62 KILM 190727 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 327 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances increase today as a cold front moves across the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining elevated rain chances. High pressure next week leads to drying conditions once more, with a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front currently just to our north will push down and stall in the area through the day, enhancing our potential for storms. As the ridge axis aloft moves offshore a trough with a surface cold front will approach from the west. Ahead of this feature, pockets of vorticity will move overhead. Instability from daytime heating with the stalled frontal boundary will lead to scattered activity developing in the afternoon. Inverted V soundings suggest a potential wind threat with any stronger storms' downdrafts along with the possibility for a small hail threat. The majority of the area is in a marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk for severe weather outside of coastal SE NC where there's more inhibition. As the cold front to the west approaches overnight, the lack of instability will cause precip with it to become isolated in coverage. This activity will move offshore before daybreak Sat as the cold front moves through. Highs in the mid to upper 80s away from the SE NC coast. Lows in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Cold front in the area Sat morning gradually slips offshore during the day, ending up parallel to the flow aloft in the evening. Rain chances Sat will depend heavily on how quickly the front moves offshore. If the front pushes offshore before midday, drier mid- level air will work its way into the area, significantly limiting rainfall chances. The post front environment is marked by a strong inversion based around 850mb. Even isentropic lift is negligible post front. The best chance for getting rain will be along the coast, if a sea breeze can develop and help bring some of prefrontal air back onshore. Confidence in rainfall Sat is lower than normal due to the limiting factors mentioned above. Temperatures continue well above climo Sat regardless of where the front is with no cold air to be found. Highs will ranges from upper 70s on the cold side of the front and lower 80s on the warm side. Temperatures do start trending closer to climo late Sat night as the front begins to slip farther south and a northerly flow regime moves in. Frontal zone lingers in or just south of the area Sat night through Sun night. Weak surface waves develop along the front then start to deepen as they feel the influence of a southern stream shortwave crossing the Gulf Coast. Increasing moisture Sat night and increasing mid-level lapse rates as heights start falling will lead to elevated convection developing over coastal SC Sat night then moving northeast in NC after midnight. The lows pass offshore later Sun and Sun night with the location of the front determining how close the lows are to the forecast area. The strength of the lows and their proximity to the coast will determine how much rain ends up falling, but rain seems all but certain. There is likely to be a sharp rainfall gradient in or near the forecast area. Cloud cover, rain and increased northerly flow on the west side of the aforementioned lows will keep highs Sun well below climo while lows end up near climo. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low confidence right away Mon as a robust, moisture laden shortwave moves across the forecast area. Hard to imagine this feature won't bring at least some isolated showers to the area, and the guidance is split on location and timing of this feature. Would not be shocked to see cloud cover and rain chances increase with further updates. Flow aloft flattens in the wake of the exiting shortwave Tue through Thu, leading to fast moving surface features and keeping coldest air north of the area. High pressure moves overhead Tue then offshore Wed as dry cold front moves across the area. High pressure with Canadian origins then settles over the area Thu. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster next week with well below climo temps Mon/Mon night trending close to climo Tue/Tue night and above Wed before dropping back near to below climo late in the week.&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Primarily VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Cirrus is passing over the area currently, primarily NE SC, with a IFR cloud deck located to our NE with the incoming cold front. Winds will be light and variable with a bit of an easterly component as the front stalls through our area around daybreak. This front will lift back north with winds becoming more southerly by the afternoon along scattered showers/storms. Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the period due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Sub-SCA conditions. A stalled front in the area will increase shower and storm chances this afternoon with the possibility for strong wind gusts. Another cold front from the west will move over the waters overnight into Sat morning. Wind direction with the competing boundaries will be a bit tumultuous, going from the E this morning to more SE in the afternoon and then SW overnight. Speeds should be near 10 kts. Seas will be 2-3 ft with a 1ft E swell at 12-14 seconds, a 1-2 ft SE well at 8-9 seconds, and a NE to SW wind wave. Saturday through Tuesday: Brief period of southerly flow on Sat before front sags south of the waters and high pressure starts building in from the north Sat night. North to northeast flow will continue through Tue with potential for northeast winds in excess of 20 kt at times Sun night and Mon as low pressure passes east of the waters. Northeast surge Mon night into Tue may bring about another round of winds in excess of 20 kt late Mon night before speeds drop down near 10 kt Tue. Seas build from 2-3 ft Sat to 3-4 ft Sun and 3-5 ft Sun night and Mon. Continued strong northeast flow will keep seas 3-5 ft Mon night before seas gradually start to diminish on Tue. Initially a southerly wind wave and a southeast to east swell will be present, but the development of enhanced northeast flow will lead to an easterly wind wave becoming dominant on Sun and persisting through Tue with wave periods gradually increasing. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LEW MARINE...III/LEW