####018004539#### FXUS63 KMPX 131200 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 600 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow expected across southwest MN this morning. Accumulations under an inch. - Coldest air of the season continues, with wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero expected tonight. - After the arctic air this weekend, much warmer and above freezing temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Winds have weakened overnight, though remain strong enough to hold wind chills as low as -20F to -30F early this morning. Most areas will warm about 5 to 10 degrees this afternoon, but winds also increase, limiting our recovery from the cold conditions. Temperatures crash again tonight, aided by clearing skies and persistent cold air advection from the northwest. Widespread wind chills as low as 35 below zero are expected again. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning, after which winds shift out of the south and we are able to rebound a bit Sunday afternoon. Light snow is ongoing this morning, stretching from Montana all the way down towards Iowa. This system will slide through the central US today, clipping the southwestern corner of Minnesota. Accumulations around a few tenths up to an inch at most expected for locations southwest of the MN river valley and along parts of the I-90 corridor. Blowing snow concerns are not as high today, though the breezy winds could still produce pockets of some drifting and blowing snow for any areas with a blowable snowpack. Surface high pressure dominates the northern Plains through the rest of the weekend into early next week. One thing to watch for period of warmer temperatures will be the extent of cloud cover. Latest ensemble guidance favors denser, more persistent cloud cover, which would limit the ceiling for our highs and keep our lows well above average. Regardless, Tuesday and Wednesday should mark our first time above freezing in nearly 3 weeks! Our next chance for precipitation comes in the form of a shortwave and associated Clipper Wednesday into Thursday. There could be another strong push of cold air behind this system, though it does not look to last that long as ridging quickly builds back in behind it. Depending on the exact track of the low, and the extent of how much we are able to warm up across the region, there could be precipitation type concerns with rain transitioning to snow or wintry mix. Winds could also get quite strong behind this system, with both the Euro and American models suggesting gusts on the order of 35 to 45 mph being possible Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Snow has remained south of MKT and RWF this morning and have opted to remove from the TAF. Elsewhere, high stratus remains, but will scatter out this morning leaving partly clear skies with VFR conditions. Breezy NW winds will diminish late in the period, but remain steady between 10 and 20kts until then. There is a chance for high end MVFR cigs at RNH and EAU late tonight, but opted to keep TAF at low end VFR given low confidence. Forecast soundings indicate these lower ceilings could arrive as early as noon, but the chance is better later in the day with an increased RH layer. Nonetheless, dry conditions should lead to no impact. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Wind S early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Wright. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood- Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...PV ####018007131#### FXUS61 KBTV 131201 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 701 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper will bring a few snow showers and a brief lake effect band today and tomorrow, leading to light accumulations in the mountains and over parts of northern New York. A mostly dry day will prevail Monday before another clipper brings a few snow showers Monday night. A warming trend looks to lead to some rain and snow mix at the end of the week, though the prevalence of the different precipitation types remains uncertain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 132 AM EST Saturday...A few light snow showers are still managing to linger across parts of the Greens and highlands of the Northeast Kingdom, but decreasing cloud cover and moisture should cause them to end within the next few hours. Temperatures tonight depend largely on cloud cover. Places that have been clear for the whole evening like Massena are close to zero but some of the clouded over areas are still in the mid to upper 20s. Temperatures should drop a bit more before developing southerly winds late in the night cause them to bottom out or increase in most areas. A clipper will move through in the afternoon and evening and bring some light snow showers, though not much in the way in accumulations are expected in most places. The exception is in parts of the St. Lawrence Valley and western Adirondacks due to some lake enhancement. Not only will 1-3 inches be possible locally, but there will also be the potential for snow squalls. A dropping front will provide the forcing and lake moisture/heat will provide enough instability that convective snow showers will develop. There look to be 50-75 J of CAPE and the instability looks to reach up to almost 10,000 feet. The squall potential drops quickly heading east, and while a few heavier snow showers are possible in the Champlain Valley and eastward, squalls look very unlikely there. This is due to the lake enhancement diminishing and the synoptic forcing weakening. A few light snow showers will continue Saturday night in places but the accumulation should be mostly done. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Lingering moisture in the low snow growth zone could continue causing a few snow showers to linger on Sunday, but any of the stronger dynamics will be over southern New England so not much in the way of accumulations are expected. Flow becomes more northwesterly and sends the lake moisture to the south. Brief ridging will build on Monday and should briefly end the snow showers. The coldest of the airmass will be over the region Monday morning, but it will be significantly modified by the time it makes it here, so it will not be nearly as cold as parts of the Upper Midwest are night now. Enough heat is wrapping its way around from the unfrozen Hudson Bay and Great Lakes to notably warm the airmass. Temperatures should still fall into the single digits to around zero in most places with chills between 0 and -15, but that is a far cry from the -20 to -40 wind chills out over parts of the Upper Midwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 132 AM EST Saturday...Some light snow showers are expected for Monday night as a weak low pressure system passes north of the international border. There will be a break in precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night, then another low pressure system will approach from the northwest bringing next chance for snow showers to the region. A stronger and more robust system is shaping up for the Thursday night into Friday timeframe. Warm air is expected with strong southerly flow ahead of this system on Thursday, so unfortunately with this system comes a chance for liquid precipitation once again. Still a lot of uncertainty this far out, but will continue to monitor potential for this to be an impactful system towards the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...Currently VFR conditions at all terminals. Winds will begin to shift to the south today. We will monitor two waves of snow. The first will shift east from 14-18z associated with this wind shift. Dry air may result in some virga, and PROB30s highlight this potential. The second, more impactful round will shift east of the St. Lawrence River about 18z, where some embedded heavy snowfall may reduce visibilities to 1SM or less. However, as it shifts east of KSLK, activity will quickly fall apart. Ahead of that, south to southwest winds will likely increase towards 7 to 11 knots with a few gusts up 16 to 20 knots. Wind speeds decrease again with a general trend towards MVFR ceilings. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .MARINE... Channeled southerly flow will develop later in the night and continue through the day, causing winds on the lake to be between 15-30 KTs. Winds decrease quickly this evening as flow turns westerly. They should be around and below 10 KTs by midnight. Waves will build up to around 2-5 feet by the afternoon, before they quickly diminish in the evening as winds drop. A few brief snow showers are possible today and tonight but they should be light and brief. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Neiles MARINE...Myskowski EQUIPMENT...Team BTV