####018002783#### FXUS64 KMEG 251126 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 626 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth today, following the passage of a cold front on Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly to the north of Memphis. Following today's brief cooldown, warmer and more humid conditions will spread into the Midsouth on Friday and persist through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over eastern Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. Rain chances will increase over all the Midsouth Sunday night and Monday, as an upper level disturbance and Pacific cold front pass through. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Overall, few changes from earlier forecasts. Active weather will remain over the southern and central plains through Saturday, as two upper level lows lift from the 4-corners region to the upper Midwest. The Midsouth will remain on the far eastern extent of thunderstorm probabilities, under the western periphery of a semi-persistent upper level ridge over the Southeast. The trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern will begin to break down on Sunday, aided by progressive southern branch trough lifting through the southern plains. Midlevel height falls and an associated Pacific cold frontal passage will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday. Elevated CAPE during this period will likely prevail below 500 J/kg, limiting severe storm threat. Precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support locally heavy rainfall, but the overall flooding threat should be limited by the progressive nature of the upper trough. Following a brief period of zonal flow aloft on Tuesday, an upper ridge will amplify upstream over the plains. This is further west than earlier depicted by the models and would expose the Midsouth northwest flow aloft and another cold frontal passage in the middle of next week. PWB && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A warm front will lift north across the Mid-South today, allowing for scattered showers to develop this afternoon. Shower coverage should begin to diminish tonight with dry conditions by sunrise Friday. Otherwise, VFR CIGs and ENE winds will prevail. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ANS ####018012346#### FXUS65 KABQ 251126 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Windy to very windy conditions expected nearly areawide this afternoon. Winds combined with very low humidity will lead to critical fire weather conditions for much of northern and central New Mexico. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist through Saturday. Cooler temperatures prevail Saturday and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the central mountains and westward. Drier conditions take hold Sunday, save for isolated activity in the northern mountains, and temperatures will gradually warm up through midweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Low level moisture has surged back into eastern NM this morning with dewpoints just shy of 60 degrees. A batch of low clouds has developed across the northeast and additional low clouds and perhaps patchy fog will also be possible across Curry and Roosevelt counties later this morning. An elongated upper level low pressure system over southern NV and SoCal early this morning will lift northeastward over AZ today and cross CO this evening. A potent dry slot evident on satellite imagery is currently pushing into western NM and will continue to spread across the state. Additionally, a strong mid level jet will cross NM, with the strongest winds expected over eastern NM. With mixing heights above 600mb today, much of the momentum aloft will mix to the surface this afternoon with daytime heating. Previous shifts had already issued a High Wind Warning a few Wind Advisories across eastern NM. Have added a few more Wind Advisories west of the High Wind Warning and also upgraded Quay County from an advisory to a warning. Gusts between 50 and 60 mph will be common today east of the Central Mountain Chain. Elsewhere, gusts between 35 and 45 mph will be common. A Pacific cold front will race from west to east today, and some of the strongest wind gusts will be possible along the frontal boundary. With these strong winds, blowing dust will be a concern, especially around Chaves County where drought continues to plague the area. Though the wind and dust will be the big concerns today, the storm system will also bring some showers and thunderstorms to the northwest third or so of the area, to include the northern mountains. Wind gusts may be enhanced with any shower or thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Additionally, temperatures will cool behind the aforementioned cold front, thus, late today and especially overnight, 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible across the highest peaks of the northern mountains. As the storm system moves away from NM, strong winds will continue overnight at mid levels. Models are indicating that a mountain wave will develop which would result in gusty and erratic wind gusts along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and perhaps southward toward Clines Corners and potentially as far east as I-25. Any mountain wave activity would diminish by mid morning Friday. Friday will feature breezy to windy conditions for most areas, but not as strong as today. Temperatures will be cooler, especially across eastern NM in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 An upper low swinging down from the Great Basin will organize and deepen Friday night as it pushes into NM. This will bring isolated to scattered rain showers with a slight chance of thunder through the night to northwestern NM, spreading in coverage to the northern mts and RGV by Saturday afternoon. Placement of the low will allow for strong winds to favor the southwest and south central mts and their adjacent highlands, as well as the southeast plains in the afternoon. Cooler temperatures will prevail in the wake of the low, with most locales seeing reductions of 5F to 10F compared to Friday's readings. The low is pulled north Saturday night, leaving the eastern plains wanting for precip. A baggy shortwave trough may offer some comfort to at least far northeast NM Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers, though little is expected in the arena of appreciable rainfall. Temperatures begin to warmup Sunday, starting a warming trend that will last through Tuesday. Dry conditions, mostly sunny skies, and near to above average temperatures prevail on Monday and Tuesday. Return flow increases on Wednesday, priming the eastern plains for a round of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. While still quite a ways out, ingredients look favorable for storms to have the potential to become strong to potentially severe. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Patchy MVFR to IFR cigs remain across portions of far eastern NM this morning. These will persist through approximately 15Z before clearing out as strong southwesterly winds develop. By late morning, southwest winds will be rapidly increasing across the area. Gusts between 35 and 40kt will be common across western NM with gusts up to 50 kts across eastern NM through the early evening. BLDU may limit visibility, especially around KROW, where vsbys could drop below 1 mile. An Airport Weather Warning will also be likely for KABQ this afternoon for strong winds. Winds will decrease for most areas this evening, but winds will remain strong through Friday morning along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns where mountain wave activity is expected. Strong and erratic gusts will be possible due to mountain wave activity from KRTN to KLVS to KCQC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 312 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY... Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across central and eastern NM as well as the west central basin and range. A storm system will cross the Four Corners area, steering a dry slot and strong winds across much of NM. The strongest winds and lowest humidity values will be across eastern NM where several hours of single digit RH values are possible. The storm system will eject northeastward but breezy to windy conditions will persist on Friday. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are once again possible for all of eastern NM as well as the middle Rio Grande Valley (particularly within Socorro County). Critical fire weather conditions will also be possible for the east central plains on Saturday as another storm system crosses the Four Corners region. Both storm systems will bring showers and thunderstorms to northwest third to half of the state. The second system will be stronger and more moist, thus will have better potential to bring some wetting precipitation. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for Monday through Wednesday with less wind in store. However, it will remain dry with sub-15% humidity likely Monday and Tuesday areawide, and across western and central NM on Wednesday. Gulf moisture will return across eastern NM on Wednesday, which will bring a better chance for thunderstorms by the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 69 40 66 41 / 20 20 20 50 Dulce........................... 67 33 62 34 / 20 30 20 60 Cuba............................ 65 34 63 34 / 30 20 10 40 Gallup.......................... 62 34 63 33 / 20 20 5 40 El Morro........................ 59 35 62 35 / 20 20 0 30 Grants.......................... 65 35 66 33 / 20 20 0 30 Quemado......................... 62 33 65 35 / 20 10 0 20 Magdalena....................... 68 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 62 35 63 36 / 10 10 0 10 Reserve......................... 66 30 67 34 / 10 5 0 20 Glenwood........................ 70 41 71 44 / 5 5 0 10 Chama........................... 62 31 57 31 / 30 30 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 65 40 62 40 / 20 20 5 30 Pecos........................... 67 36 64 36 / 10 10 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 63 37 58 36 / 20 30 5 20 Red River....................... 60 31 55 29 / 30 30 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 62 30 55 27 / 20 30 5 10 Taos............................ 68 32 64 32 / 20 20 0 20 Mora............................ 67 35 63 33 / 10 20 0 10 Espanola........................ 73 40 70 41 / 10 20 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 68 39 65 40 / 10 20 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 71 38 69 39 / 10 10 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 46 70 47 / 5 10 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 45 72 45 / 5 5 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 75 43 74 45 / 5 5 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 44 73 45 / 5 5 0 10 Belen........................... 77 43 76 43 / 0 5 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 75 44 73 45 / 5 10 0 20 Bosque Farms.................... 76 42 74 43 / 5 5 0 10 Corrales........................ 75 44 74 44 / 5 5 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 76 42 75 43 / 5 5 0 10 Placitas........................ 71 44 69 45 / 5 10 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 74 44 72 45 / 5 5 0 20 Socorro......................... 79 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 65 40 63 41 / 5 10 0 10 Tijeras......................... 69 41 66 42 / 5 10 0 10 Edgewood........................ 69 40 67 39 / 5 10 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 39 69 36 / 0 5 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 68 37 65 36 / 0 5 0 5 Mountainair..................... 69 40 67 40 / 0 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 70 38 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 74 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 67 40 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 73 39 69 37 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 76 37 71 36 / 0 5 0 5 Springer........................ 76 39 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 70 39 67 37 / 0 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 81 46 76 44 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 43 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 47 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 79 46 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 49 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 86 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 87 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 91 50 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 46 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 76 43 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126. High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223>229-231>234-237>240. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-215-220>222-230-235-236. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ104-106-123>126. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...34 ####018006749#### FXUS63 KTOP 251127 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 627 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning shift towards far eastern Kansas by the afternoon. A few may be marginally severe with damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size. - Next round of thunderstorms is late this evening into Friday morning with the potential for a few severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. - Severe weather threat increases over eastern Kansas Friday late afternoon - evening. Highest chances are north of Interstate 70 with all hazards being possible with any storm that develops. - Saturday afternoon - evening is the most likely period for more widespread severe storms across the CWA. All hazards are expected into the evening. - Final round of severe storms is on Sunday afternoon - evening towards far eastern Kansas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Increasing mid level moisture as an embedded upper trough rounds the weak ridge in the panhandles region, entering the area later this morning. Isentropic lift is steadily increasing as the warm front currently stretched across central OK is progged to lift northward today. Current radar and short term guidance is in line with this reasoning for convection to become more widespread aft 12Z as elevated CAPE values increase from 500-1500 J/KG over portions of central and northeast Kansas. Effective bulk shear from 35-45 kts is supportive of embedded stronger updrafts capable of producing hail to quarter size and damaging wind gusts. This activity persists into mid afternoon, migrating into far east central areas by late afternoon. As low level moisture increases, indicative of dewpoints in the upper 50s, cloud cover sticks around through the evening as southeasterly winds increase from 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The rain and cloud cover limits highs today to the lower and middle 60s. Isolated convection is forecast to develop off the dryline over western KS/South central NE this evening. 00Z runs of the Fv3, WRF models, and the HRRR are maintaining this convection into north central Kansas aft 00Z, aided by a 50 kt LLJ. In addition, sustained WAA within the moist sector for the remaining CWA will likely spark additional scattered showers and storms early Friday morning. While storms should be elevated, large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out given MUCAPE values around 2000 J/KG. On Friday, the upper trough becomes negatively tilted as it digs northeast into southeast NE by 00Z Saturday. Dryline/Pac Cold front approaches eastern KS by late afternoon, accompanied by moderate instability upstream near 2500 J/KG as sfc capping layer gradually erodes per forecast soundings in the late afternoon. Main factor for storm initation is position of the upper level low over NE and depth of height falls further south into KS. CAMs remain consistent in isolated convection developing by early evening near the KS/NE border, however its important not to rule out the possibility for an isolated storm to form as far south as I-70. Given the strong low level wind profile amid an uncapped unstable environment, any storm that forms will be supercellular in nature, capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes through early evening. On a smaller side note, the tightening pressure gradient likely signals advisory level winds in the afternoon. South wind speeds are from 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The most concerning round of severe weather may occur on Saturday as the dryline/front retreats westward, orienting southwest to northeast from south central KS to far northeast Kansas. The next negatively tilted upper trough enters the CO Rockies by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit a decent capping inversion through the afternoon period, before eroding completely by 21Z as SFC cape builds over 3000 J/KG. Low level winds back to the south at this time as SRH climbs above 200 m2/s2. While uncertainty remains on exact location of storms initiating, consistency amongst available guidance lends to increasing concern for higher end supercells to form within the region, capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes. Convection is anticipated to expand in coverage, perhaps merging into a line later in the evening towards eastern/southeast Kansas as the trough axis ejects into western KS. In addition to the very large hail and damaging wind gusts, the tornado threat may extend into the late evening. There may be some lingering convection south of the CWA Sunday morning. Latest guidance indicates a slowing in progression of the upper trough axis, still residing from central NE to central KS by mid afternoon. While recovery time is highly questionable with any morning convection, we could still see SFC cape values rise to near 2000 J/KG while effective bulk shear is favorable for rotating updrafts at around 45 kts. Better chances for additional severe weather is over far eastern KS (east of highway 75) in the late afternoon. Any activity that develops will quickly push east into Missouri by the evening bringing an end to this extended period of active severe weather. Westerly flow aloft returns next week, allowing additional weaker shortwave troughs to potentially bring shower and storm chances Monday evening into Wednesday. Ensembles are highly variable in timing and location this far out with modest low precip chances inserted attm. Temperatures remain seasonable in the low 80s for highs and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 SCT shra with VCTS observed at terminals for the next 1-2 hours before TSRA increases in coverage from the northwest before spreading southeast towards terminals aft 14Z. Cigs should quickly fall to IFR within periods of heavy rainfall through mid afternoon. IFR stratus is on track to stay in the afternoon via forecast soundings with indications for LIFR increasing late tonight. There is at least moderate high confidence for additional showers and thunder redeveloping aft 06z, impacting terminals through 12Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto ####018011661#### FXUS65 KCYS 251128 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 528 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle today and tonight. A few storms may be strong to locally severe, especially east of I-25. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, although an isolated tornado or two will be possible. The potential will exist for cold-core funnel clouds as well. - An extremely active weather pattern persists through the weekend with widespread stratiform rain w/ embedded thunder likely for most areas from Friday through Sunday. - Accumulating snow is expected at elevations above 8000 feet, with the potential for 12+ inches in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges from Friday through Sunday. The I-80 Summit between Laramie and Cheyenne will be very close to the main transition zone between rain and snow. Travel impacts remain possible, mainly from Friday night through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 A highly complex & extremely active mid & upper level pattern is expected to continue to evolve across the western and central US over the next 24 to 48 hours, giving way to chances for multiple hazards including severe convective storms, significant snowfall accumulations above 7500-8000 feet elevation, as well as chances for locally heavy rainfall for the lower elevations. The overall upper-level pattern will remain characterized by expansive long- wave troughing encompassing much of the western & central CONUS, with two distinct pieces of energy pivoting across the 4 corners region before ejecting northeastward across the southern/central high plains. Overall, models are in excellent agreement with the overall evolution of the pattern. However, there are a number of notable complexities with potential outcomes highly sensitive to the precise timing of disturbances and resulting interactions of boundaries which eventually take place. Nonetheless, it is quite likely that the majority of the CWA will see some sort of impact from these systems. The first notable short-wave disturbance will lift to the north- east across the 4 corners this afternoon, contributing to strong lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado with a sub-990-mb surface low expected to develop by 21z. The resulting southeasterly low- level flow should provide a sufficient fetch of moisture to help maintain appreciable surface dew points in the lower 50s, mainly across the western Nebraska Panhandle. The western extent of the deeper moisture remains highly uncertain with a sharp cut-off in the spread of HREF members along/southwest of a BFF-IBM line for progged dew points indicating uncertainty regarding the eastward progression of the dry line. The 10th %ile of the HREF ensembles are in the mid 40s to the east of this line, but quickly drop to the mid/upper 20s to the west. This may play a key role in storm severity today w/ better MLCAPEs (1000-1500 J/kg) possibly being focused more across our far eastern zones. Even so, there should be good instability today as thermal profiles rapidly cool later this afternoon as the mid-level cold pool approaches. Scattered/ numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop across western areas by early afternoon, with a slightly delayed initiation for the high plains closer to 21-00z given substantial inhibition w/ the initially warm, capped air mass aloft. High-res models would suggest initiation occurring in the vicinity of the dryline near the WY/NE border by 00z w/ numerous clusters developing through- out the evening. Vertical shear will be more than sufficient for organized, potentially rotating storms capable of large hail and perhaps locally damaging wind gusts. The last several iterations of the HRRR and NAMNest have suggested a few narrow UH tracks as well, suggesting potential for a low-topped supercell or two and the risk for a weak tornado or two. As thermal profiles cool, we would not be surprised to see at least several cold-core funnels develop in the early evening w/ numerous storm mergers likely to be taking place during this time. Dry-slotting on the back side of the rapidly maturing cyclone is expected to limit convective coverage across western zones after 03z, with the primary focus shifting toward stratiform rain and/ or embedded convection over the western NE Panhandle through mid day Friday. Brief short-wave dirty ridging should develop as the first low departs. A weak, slow-moving disturbance will uncercut this ridge over central Wyoming, resulting in a burst of notable 700-mb warm air advection across Carbon & Albany counties during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. As such, rain & high- elevation snow should quickly re-develop as the next low deepens and pivots northeast across the 4 corners from Friday night thru Saturday. Yet again, lee cyclogenesis will result in substantial wrap-around moisture in the TROWAL/deformation axis on the back- side of a rapidly deepening cyclone over central KS. As a result we should see deep/moist northeasterly low-level upslope flow as well as favorable dynamics supporting widespread stratiform rain and embedded convection over much of the CWA. PWATs of 0.5+ inch will be near the 90th percentile of climatology, so would expect some pretty impressive rainfall totals through Sunday. Localized areas could see over 1.5 inches of rain over the next few days! High-elevation snow will also be likely, as 700-hpa temperatures fall to -2 to -4 deg C. A foot or more of accumulation will be a good possibility for both the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges with this second wave, with more significant uncertainty below around 8000 feet elevation and potential impacts over the Interstate 80 Summit between Laramie and Cheyenne. Models continue to trend on the cooler side for Friday Night & Saturday, validating previous concerns of cold air damming along the front range favoring low- tier percentiles of the model spectrum for temperatures. Decided to populate snow levels with the 25th %ile of the NBM, which may bring a brief rain/snow mix into Cheyenne but would restrict the accumulations to the higher terrain to the west. The Summit will be right near the transitional bubble, with the worst-case being around 6-8 inches of heavy and wet snow. Ensemble means are near 2-3 inches using a 10:1 ratio. Will continue to hold off for now on any headlines given lingering uncertainty. Daytime highs will likely struggle to reach the middle 40s for many areas Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 402 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 We will have an active weather pattern continue for the extended forecast package. Near average temperatures for the weekend are forecast, and gradually increasing through the week to be approximately 5-15 degrees above climatological averages to round out the last few days of April and into early May. At this time of inspection, snow showers across the higher elevations will wind down on Sunday and Monday, with rain showers and thunderstorms anticipated daily for the entire cwa through the end of next week. Saturday night into early Sunday, we will have a slow-moving upper level low slowly propagating to the east-northeast, ultimately ejecting out toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Sunday. As this negatively tilted upper level system with an attendant mid-latitude surface low propagates away from our region, we will have wrap-around moisture coupled with CAA. 700mb temperatures ranging from 0C to -5C along with scattered rain showers in the lower elevations, and accumulation snowfall in the higher terrain will slowly dissipate from Saturday night to late Sunday afternoon. Isolated thundershowers are also possible, but sub- severe. Areas of highest confidence for additional rainfall accumulations in the lower terrain will be along and east of I-25 toward western Nebraska. Much needed rainfall is anticipated for these areas. The water faucet will be turned off for only a brief period as we transition to a quiet weather setup for approximately 24 hours. A shortwave trough will arrive from the Pacific Northwest by Monday evening, bringing a renewed chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. This weak disturbance is anticipated to eject downstream toward the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region throughout the day on Tuesday, limiting our chances of rainfall from that. Tuesday is advertised by model guidance to transition to a more quasi-zonal flow regime aloft, with weak shortwave disturbances embedded within the H5 and H7 flow aloft. Diurnal convection is signaled to be present as mid-levels will adiabatically cool from a passing shortwave trough to our north, increasing the low-level and mid-level atmosphere lapse rates. Not expecting severe weather from this weak threshold of a disturbance, but lingering showers and thunderstorms could persist overnight into early Wednesday morning. Wednesday and Thursday will see an amplification of an upper level ridge, with it originating across the Mexican Plateau, and advecting warmer are northward across the Intermountain West. Weak shortwave disturbances are forecast to propagate off a much larger longwave trough from the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, bringing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the day. Thursday will have the aforementioned upper level ridge axis positioned over the Central Plains. The potent longwave trough will elongate and intensify across the western CONUS. This trough is modeled to become negatively tilted by Thursday of next week, with diffluent flow being coupled with moisture and instability across the Central Rockies. We will need to pay attention to this trend as it may be our next opportunity for stronger, organized convection across the cwa to round out the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity is waning this evening, but we will still have a few more hours with the possibility for a brief downpour and a few lightning strikes. Southerly flow over the High Plains will usher in low-level moisture through the morning hours. Models have backed off slightly on the intensity of fog/low CIGs through Thursday morning, but a period of MVFR to LIFR conditions is still likely at KBFF, KAIA, KSNY, and KCYS. The latter two are the most likely to see periods of IFR, while MVFR is favored for the former. This should clear by the late morning hours as southeast winds increase again. Another round of shower and thunderstorm activity will develop after about 21z Thursday and gradually increase in coverage through the evening hours. These storms will have the potential to produce lighting, brief downpours, gusty winds, and hail possible. Expect a wind shift during the evening hours. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...MN ####018005479#### FXUS64 KLCH 251129 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 629 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Weak high pressure remains the main factor influencing our weather and will continue to be so for most of the short-term forecast. Across Arkansas, a frontal boundary is slowly moving southward and will increase our pressure gradient.  As the PG builds, winds will increase, especially on Friday and Saturday, with advisories likely both inland and offshore. At the surface, high pressure will remain to our east, which will continue to push warm, moist Gulf air into the southeast US. Temperatures will continue to slowly rise through the weekend, with our highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This strong onshore flow is also a concern for coastal flooding during high tide. By Sunday, the PG will start to lessen and the winds will weaken.  A robust upper-level trough will be ejected from the Rockies this weekend. This system will mainly impact north Louisiana and Texas, && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 As the forecast period begins, the pattern will continue to see high pressure at the surface off the southeast US coast ridging into the forecast area providing southerly flow that will bring in warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air. Another deep low pressure system is expected to be over the Plains that will tighten the gradient across the region with very breezy and gusty south winds that are currently projected to be sustained in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts around 35 mph. Therefore, there is a good chance that a wind advisory may be needed for Sunday. The one change that will begin on late Sunday will be the upper level ridge weakening and shifting to the east. This will allow a short wave to move west to east into the forecast area late in the day. By that time, plenty of Gulf moisture will be around with PWAT values ranging from 1.40 to 1.75 inches, with the higher values above the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Also, the higher numbers will be over western portions of the forecast area. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced to the forecast for southeast Texas and west central Louisiana to coincide with the higher moisture values and weakness aloft. Decent instability will also be noted on Sunday afternoon and evening with CAPE values over 2000 j/kg to go along with progged slow storm motion speed with movement becoming parallel to the mid level flow. Therefore, with the high atmospheric moisture content, the stronger convection will have some potential to produce high rainfall rates over a prolonged time for a location. Therefore, WPC will have southeast Texas into a portion of west central Louisiana outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential for Excessive Rainfall. The weakness aloft will continue to expand east on Monday with the high moisture content hanging around with PWAT values in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch range, again above 90th percentile of SPC daily climo, with 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity in the 60 to 70 percent range. Again, slow storm motions are progged along with movement parallel to the mid level flow. Favorable instability will be hanging around with CAPE near or above 2000 j/kg. Therefore, the stronger storms again will have the potential for high rainfall rates that may stay over a location for a prolonged period. Therefore, WPC will have a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) Potential for Excessive Rainfall for portions of southeast Texas and central Louisiana, with the remainder of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk. The unsettled pattern will continue into Tuesday before upper level ridging begins to build back into the forecast area for mid week. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Areas of dense to patchy fog is lowering VIS to MVFR/IFR conditions at the coastal terminals. The fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions lasting through the rest of the day. Around sunset MVFR ceilings will be moving in from the west to east overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Starting on today winds will start to increase becoming moderate to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up to 30 knots. The elevated winds will continue on Saturday as well before weakening on Sunday. Waves will also build in the outer waters reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays will be rough to very rough conditions. A Small Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday night and lasting through Saturday as the pressure gradient further tightens across the area building seas further into the weekend under a strong southerly regime. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 85 65 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 82 70 82 72 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 85 68 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 82 70 82 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...14