####018007119#### FXUS64 KFWD 130852 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 352 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ /Through Tuesday/ A relative lull in convective activity exists following the eastward departure of showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend. One last opportunity for convection will occur late this morning into the afternoon mainly across parts of East and Central Texas as the system's trailing weak cold front moves through. Until then, a mild and muggy morning is in store with widespread low stratus and perhaps areas of fog set to develop through daybreak. Some dense fog is not out of the question, and the necessity of a Dense Fog Advisory will be monitored overnight. Later this morning after sunrise, trailing shortwave energy responsible for ongoing convection in western Oklahoma could allow for elevated shower and thunderstorm activity to clip portions of North Texas. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will slowly push into North Texas, offering an additional source of ascent. Despite these lifting mechanisms and exceptional prefrontal instability, a subsidence inversion may keep most of the forecast area too capped to achieve renewed deep convection later in the day along this boundary. Lackluster convergence along the front due to the presence of a vague prefrontal trough feature and attendant veering westerly flow will also mitigate ascent strength, making convective initiation in the presence of even weak capping less likely. Overall, PoPs have been reduced from previous forecasts, as prospects for late morning/afternoon convection appear lower than previously advertised. That being said, any isolated storm that may manage to develop could quickly become severe in the presence of strong instability with hail/wind threats. Since low-level flow will be veered and weak, the tornado potential appears quite low. The chance for severe storms and flooding is highest across our southeast zones, tapering off northwestward into the I-35 and I-20 corridors where the potential for thunderstorms is quite low. All convection should be exiting the area to the east by early evening. At this time, no changes are planned to the Flood Watch product which remains in effect through midday. However, northern portions of the watch may be trimmed in subsequent forecasts depending on observational and model trends over the next few hours. An additional 1-2" of rain would be possible if afternoon convection can develop in Central Texas, and even these small rainfall amounts will be sufficient to result in additional flash flooding due to already saturated grounds. Following the departure of today's convective activity and the passage of the weak cold front, dry and pleasant weather will prevail heading into the midweek period with clearing skies and warmer temperatures for Tuesday. Highs will return to the mid and upper 80s with lows in the 60s. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/ Our brief period of quiet weather will continue Wednesday, with a warm afternoon in store for North and Central Texas. Temperatures will mostly peak in the mid to upper 80s, but a few spots may eclipse the 90 degree mark. A deepening shortwave trough will swing into West Texas during the afternoon, which should aid in the development of deep convection ahead of a dryline well to our west. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity as they move east, they likely won't reach our western border until late evening or into the overnight hours Wednesday night. We'll at least have a low potential for severe weather with this activity, but this will largely depend on how these storms evolve as they approach the area. The shortwave will continue moving east on Thursday as a surface low deepens across far West Texas. By midday, the dryline will near our western border with a cold front draped across the Texas Panhandle. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and storms throughout the day. Chances for showers and storms will continue into Thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges out of the Four Corners Region into the Southern Plains. Lift will likely be maximized during this time period as the cold front continues to move south and east towards the region. Some severe threat could materialize Thursday and/or Thursday night. However, there is unusually high uncertainty in how our upper level pattern will evolve during this time period, which has rather drastic implications on the expected timing, location, and severity of the potential storms. Since we're in the thick of spring, make sure you monitor the forecast for any updates throughout the week. Unfortunately, the uncertainty bleeds into the weekend forecast as there is significant model divergence from Friday onward. Given the lack of confidence in any single solution, we stuck close to national blends for now which advertises daily low rain chances Friday through the upcoming weekend. Barnes && .AVIATION... /Issued 119 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ /06z TAFs/ IFR cigs briefly scattered on the back edge of the departing shower and thunderstorm activity late this evening, but renewed IFR cig development is now underway across western portions of D10 which will overspread all TAF sites early this morning. In addition to cigs between 500-800 ft, visibility may occasionally be reduced into the 1-4SM range through daybreak. There are a couple of low-probability opportunities for showers and thunderstorms near the TAF sites today, one in the morning with activity moving southeastward out of Oklahoma, and another early this afternoon with the arrival of a weak cold front. Brief mentions of VCSH/VCTS have been maintained in the TAFs accordingly. Precip chances will come to an end at the terminals after ~21z with a light northwest wind and clearing skies to follow. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 63 85 65 88 / 20 5 0 0 5 Waco 82 61 84 63 86 / 30 10 0 0 5 Paris 79 60 81 58 85 / 50 20 0 0 0 Denton 81 59 83 61 88 / 30 5 0 0 5 McKinney 81 61 82 61 86 / 30 5 0 0 0 Dallas 84 63 86 64 88 / 20 5 0 0 0 Terrell 80 61 83 61 86 / 30 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 82 64 85 64 88 / 30 10 0 0 0 Temple 83 62 85 64 87 / 30 10 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 82 60 85 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ119>122-130>135- 141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ ####018008562#### FXUS62 KMHX 130854 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 454 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains the dominant weather maker today. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM Mon...Latest analysis this morning depicts an increasing amplified mid-level ridge shifting over the eastern CONUS in the wake of troughing lifting into the western Atlantic. The next area of troughing is currently digging into the southern plains and is forecast to slide east towards the Carolinas by mid-week, playing a role in increasingly unsettled weather. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the mid- Atlantic coast while a backdoor cold front/trough settles offshore to our south and a coastal trough continues to migrate westward, allowing for moist easterly flow across the Inner and Outer Banks. The forecast calls for one last day of pleasant weather, albeit with increasing clouds late in the afternoon as the aforementioned plains trough taps into Gulf moisture. The surface high will shift offshore allowing for a return of southerly flow for much of the area, although the lingering trough will keep winds more east to east- southeast for coastal locations, therefore moderating temperatures across the northern Outer Banks. Still, widespread 70s are expected with a few low 80s across the coastal plain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Mon...Upper trough will continue to shift east as a wave of low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast overnight. Broad southerly flow will develop over the Carolinas overnight and dew points will steadily climb into the 60s through Tuesday morning. This, combined with steadily increasing cloud cover, will contribute to considerably warmer overnight lows as temperatures struggle to fall below the low 60s. A few stray pre- dawn showers are possible across the coastal plain with increasing isentropic lift, but more robust rainfall will hold off until daytime hours Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 415 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week. Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal. However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear. SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain on Wednesday. Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s on Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and will keep slight chance PoPs attm. Ridging crests over the area Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/... As of 130 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across ENC early this morning as high pressure builds in from the north behind a backdoor cold front now stalled offshore. Main concern will be MIFG formation early this morning. Clear skies prevail across the region but not all areas have decoupled (EWN in particular, which has remained at a steady 5 kt most of the night). Areas have that decoupled are seeing dew point depressions rapidly approach zero, and some brief ground fog formation is possible (10-20% chance) around dawn. VFR conditions return in the morning with increasing cirri through the day as low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Light winds this morning gradually veer southerly as the surface high migrates offshore but remaining under 10 kt through the day. Cigs will gradually lower through 06z but should remain at VFR. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Monday...A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub-VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub- VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR possible Friday night. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 350 AM Mon...Benign boating conditions will prevail through the short term period, although conditions will begin to deteriorate late Mon night into Tues morning as complex area of low pressure approaches from the west. Regional observations this morning show seas around 2-4 feet with predominantly easterly flow of 5-10 kt. These conditions will persist through this afternoon with flow gradually veering southerly as high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic shifts offshore. As low makes its approach towards the Carolinas, pressure gradient will tighten with winds reaching 15-20 kt by daybreak on Tuesday. Seas remain at around 2-4 feet through the period, then building to 5+ late early Tues morning primarily across outer portions of Onslow Bay. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 430 AM Monday...Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside Wednesday. A cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night with winds becoming Nly around 10-15 kt and seas around 3 to 5 ft through Thursday. High pressure build into the area Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt late in the day ahead of the next frontal system. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/MS MARINE...SK/MS ####018002965#### FXUS63 KFGF 130855 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 355 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of frost are expected this morning across portions of northwest Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s are possible. - Patchy smoke remains in place across the area through much of the day ahead of our next system that moves into the region tonight into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An active pattern prevails through much of this week as several shortwaves traverse the region. Upper flow from 500mb up to 300mb remains rather progressive, with a substantially more amplified pattern from 500mb down to 700mb. For today, dry air remains in place across the area, along with low relative humidity. RH values could fall into the lower 20 percent range once more in some areas; however, winds will be relatively light, generally in the range of 7 to 12 mph. A slow moving shortwave will bring rain chances into the region starting early Tuesday, then persist through the day on Wednesday before tapering off Thursday. A good portion of the area has a 30 percent chance to see 0.50 inch of rain from this first system. An isolated thunderstorm is possible; however, there is little, if any, support for strong storms. A second system is being highlighted by ensemble clusters starting late Thursday. The pattern is very similar, as a weak H7 trough traverses the area. This system has a 20 percent chance of bringing 0.50 inch of rain to portions of the region, with low confidence in the exact location. A few thunderstorms are possible, with the best chances along the ND/SD border. Heading into the weekend, another upper low is showing up in several sources of guidance; however, confidence is low as ensemble members show a good bit of disagreement. In general, the pattern remains somewhat close to what we are expecting through much of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. For the weekend, there seems to be a more favorable setup for perhaps a stronger storm or two. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Lingering 5-6SM smoke in SE ND and into WC MN up thru Bemidji. This should improve to P6SM after daybreak. Skies mainly clear, but some false ceilings from some AWOS sites due to particles aloft at the 4-5k ft agl layer. North wind 5 to 10 kts into Monday morning gradually turning more northeast and east into the aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006>008-016- 054. MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ004>009- 013>017. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Riddle