####018004402#### FXUS64 KSHV 091217 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 617 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Freezing fog and widespread frost will be the primary concerns for tonight along with some lingering low clouds that could impact lows. - The week ahead will be mostly dry with a steady warming trend through Thursday, followed by unseasonably mild temperatures into Saturday. - The next strong cold front will move through the area sometime this weekend, although there remains some uncertainty on timing and location. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 The primary concern for the rest of the night will be the persistence of a low-level cloud deck, particularly across our Louisiana parishes, which has exhibited a recent westward expansion. This shallow cloud shield will critically influence overnight radiational cooling, leading to some stark temperature gradients across the area. Areas that have successfully cleared out are already experiencing temperatures in the low to mid-30s. In contrast, those lingering beneath the cloud cover are being insulated some, holding temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Based on this highly localized clearing, a widespread low of 30-35 degrees is in the forecast, though this may be too ambitious for some locations. Furthermore, the combination of light winds, and some low-level moisture, we are seeing the development of fog across portions of the area, mainly across far east Texas. Of particular concern is the potential for this fog to interact with the cold temperatures, leading to some instances of freezing fog in some locations. A more benign, widespread frost event is also expected for most of the region, higher chances for those that remain clear through the night. This pattern will necessitate a close monitoring of surface observations throughout the overnight hours for any advisories that might be needed. Beyond this, the mid-week period from Tuesday through Thursday appears comparatively tranquil, characterized by dry conditions and a welcome increase in diurnal temperatures. A weak, high- amplitude cold fronted will traverse the region between Wednesday and Thursday, but is expected to be largely moisture-starved and will only impart a negligible reduction in temperatures. The most significant forecast challenge will remain the timing and speed of the next cold front. Recent model runs have trended toward a slower progression, suggesting the frontal boundary may not begin its push until Saturday. This slower evolution implies a period of unseasonably mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday, with highs potentially reaching the 70s across the southern half of the area. A cooler and more seasonable air mass will filter into the region on Sunday and for the start of the week. Rain chances associated with this frontal passage will remain low and are expected to be primarily confined to the northeastern zones Saturday night into Sunday. The trend towards deceleration will be closely watched to fine-tune the weekend temperature and precipitation forecast. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 For the 09/12Z TAF update, IFR/LIFR vis/cigs with FG continues to overspread most of the local airspace, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory through 09/16Z. Skies will gradually clear to VFR vis/cigs through the rest of the period with light southerly winds. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 60 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 57 41 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 57 37 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 59 44 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 56 41 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 62 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 61 44 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 63 44 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...16 ####018011479#### FXUS63 KJKL 091218 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 718 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday night. - Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on Wednesday. - The pattern remains active through the end of the work week, although confidence remains low in each passing system's precipitation type forecast. - A much colder airmass is forecast to move into the region late next weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 530 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025 Temperatures vary widely across the forecast area this morning, ranging from the mid teens to near 20 in the far north where skies have remained clear to the mid 20s to lower 30s farther south where a low stratus deck has been persistent. A glance at the surface map reveals high pressure extending from Southern Quebec tracing southward to over the Southern Appalachians and then westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A weak ~1007 mb surface low is noted near Duluth, MN with a warm front extending southward along the Mississippi River. A much stronger ~990 mb surface clipper low is noted over Alberta. The latest 500 hPa weather map shows much of the CONUS east of the Rockies under a broad trough. An embedded vorticity max is noted near Duluth, MN, while another vorticity max is noted over Western Canada (near the clipper low). The warm front and its associated upper level disturbance will sweep eastward today, crossing eastern Kentucky with little more than a period of increased cloud cover. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure slowly departs off the Atlantic Seaboard. A robust ~30 kt 925 mb southwesterly jet will develop behind the front. With the diurnal heating, the mixing layer should deepen sufficiently for mixed layer momentum transfer values of 15 to 25 kts across the area, a good proxy for peak surface wind gusts. The pressure gradient will only tighten more tonight as the aforementioned clipper initially over Alberta races southeast to over Lake Michigan late tonight while deepening to ~980 mb or lower. This will almost certainly keep mixing going overnight (or reengage mixing shortly after sunset if boundary layer decoupling is able to occur in some of the more sheltered valley locales). Anticipate that winds will further increase on Wednesday as the GFS BUFKIT soundings show mixed-layer momentum transfer increasing to 25-35+ kts with heating. Multiple rounds of light precipitation appear probable on Wednesday; the first is a round of showery precipitation in the morning to midday associated with a strong vorticity lobe within the 500 hPa trough axis. The second round, more likely to mix with snow, comes during the evening with a strong cold front trailing behind the clipper. Soundings suggest brief graupel is possible with any embedded convective elements, although a switch to all snow cannot be entirely ruled out, especially on the back edge of the quickly moving cold front. Strong CAA follows heading into the beginning of the long-term. In sensible weather terms, look for a cool start of the day yielding to increasing sunshine and high temperatures rebounding into the lower to middle 40s while the southwest breeze picks up and becomes gusty (15 to 25 mph gusts from the southwest). For tonight, the breeze remains gusty and may actually strengthen in more exposed locales. Temperatures may dip back into the 30s for a time this evening but will almost certainly rise back to near or even well into the 40s. On Wednesday, it will become windy with multiple rounds of showers, possibly mixed with graupel and even some flakes. Southwest wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are probable for most locations outside of the sheltered valley locales, most widespread during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures peak in the mid 40s north to near 50 south before dropping. .LONG TERM...(After midnight Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 636 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 An active synoptic weather pattern will bring periodic precipitation chances and shots of colder air to the forecast area over the next seven days. The period is defined by broad troughing over much of the eastern CONUS, with embedded shortwave disturbances rotating through the resultant mean northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, this translates to a series of quick-moving, clipper-type systems approaching the Greater Ohio River Valley. The 00z deterministic forecast guidance suite appears to be coming closer to a consensus regarding the timing and evolution of these systems relative to what was observed at this time yesterday, but there remains a significant deal of model spread later on in the forecast period. When the period opens on Wednesday night, mid/upper-level troughing will have dug deep into the Eastern CONUS. That trough's axis will be positioned in the vicinity of the forecast area, marking the passage of a cold front at the surface. Thus, a cold air advection regime is likely to set up overnight into Thursday. Models collectively depict the 540 decameter critical thickness line over the Cumberland River Basin on Thursday morning as 850mb temperatures drop to between -5 and -10 degrees Celsius. These values favor a transition over to snow showers overnight, and surface temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing area-wide after midnight. Ensemble probabilities for measurable snowfall (>= 0.01 inches) are above 70% for locations east of the I-75 corridor, and locally higher-accumulations appear possible wherever mesoscale-type precipitation enhancements materialize. The post-frontal west- northwesterly low-level flow regime should lead to some orographic enhancements in the higher terrain locales of Southeastern Kentucky. Likewise, some of the currently-available higher-resolution guidance (the NAM) suggests that a fetch off Lake Michigan could overlap with favorable snow squall parameters to yield locally higher accumulations in narrower precipitation bands. The other CAMs will need to be watched closely as this system enters their temporal range, as these smaller-scale details are smoothed over in the baseline NBM grids used to populate the long-term forecast grids. The showery nature of Thursday night's precipitation will make accumulations more spotty, and it is plausible that there will be high spatial variability in this system's storm totals. If the smaller-scale accumulation enhancements come to fruition, isolated travel issues, including potential visibility reductions, could materialize on Thursday morning. Highs will likely struggle to get much warmer than the mid-30s on Thursday afternoon due to the cold air advection regime and residual cloud cover lingering over the area. Additional light snow showers or flurries cannot be ruled out, but more widespread precipitation chances return on Thursday night as another clipper system approaches. By Thursday night, the deeper upper level troughing will have lifted northeast, although there is generally good model agreement that another shortwave disturbance will rotate around its backside and into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. The cold air in place out ahead of this particular system should allow precipitation to begin as snow, although as its surface low reflection approaches, low level winds will back towards the southwest. This could introduce warm air in the bottom portions of the atmospheric column, which could result in a transition to liquid precipitation types. Once this system enters the temporal range of higher-resolution forecast guidance, soundings and temperature profiles will need to be monitored closely, as these will provide greater insight into the p-type forecast and the timing of any transitions. The cold air should stick around for longer the further north and east one goes into the forecast area, and locations northeast of the Cumberland River basin have the highest ensemble probabilties (>50% chance) of measurable snow with this second system. These probabilities increase towards the I-64 corridor, where there is a >80% chance of measurable snow and a 40-50% chance of seeing an inch. Due to greater precipitation coverage and colder antecedent temperatures, more widespread travel impacts cannot be ruled out on Friday morning, and interests with AM travel plans should monitor future forecast updates closely. Compared to what was forecast a few days ago, guidance has trended warmer for the Friday afternoon to Saturday morning time frame. Shortwave ridging is expected to build into the Upper Midwest and interrupt the train of clipper systems around then, leading to a brief period of midlevel height rises and quasi-zonal flow aloft. Coupled with the previously-discussed southwesterly return flow, this indicates that low-level temperatures will moderate to above freezing values on Friday afternoon. Saturday's MinT and MaxT grids will likely trend upwards in future NBM runs, but spread begins to increase in the temperature guidance beyond then. This makes the precipitation forecast for a third system on Saturday night more ambiguous, although guidance collectively points towards a much colder than average airmass advecting into the region on Sunday. For now, the precipitation type forecast reflects a changeover from rain to snow as the cold air arrives. The magnitude of this cold is highly uncertain, as demonstrated by the 11 to 12 degrees of standard deviation in the European Ensemble's MOS guidance. It is very difficult to provide specific sensible weather details for Sunday and beyond given the compounding uncertainty, but WPC has maintained a 40-60% chance of below-normal temperatures in Kentucky early next week. Average low temperatures for mid-December in Eastern Kentucky are highs in the mid 40s and lows near 32 degrees. The current 25th and 75th NBM temperature percentile data for Monday are 11-22 degrees for AM lows and 27-44 degrees for PM highs. Therefore, it is likely to be noticeably colder than usual at the end of the long term forecast period, regardless of specific values. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025 The MVFR stratus deck over central and northern portions of the JKL CWA at TAF issuance is eroding from the south. That should accelerate, causing the deck to dissipate over the the next 2-3 hours, leaving just mid and high level clouds for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become southwest today and increase to between 5 and 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts. The strongest winds will occur near/west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. Winds aloft will begin to ramp up tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, yielding the threat of LLWS for most of tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...GEERTSON ####018005339#### FXUS63 KFGF 091219 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 619 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very difficult travel conditions are expected today, with heavy snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and ice. The line between freezing rain and snow is expected to be sharp, with 3 to 6 inches or more snow to the northeast of the line, and up to a tenth of an inch of ice to the south. - Winds increase this afternoon, with gusts of 50 mph or higher. Areas with snow on the ground, or actively falling, will see visibility reductions. The highest winds are expected in southeast North Dakota. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70 percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Synopsis... A strong clipper system moves into the area today, bringing mixed precipitation, including freezing rain and moderately heavy snow. Travel impacts are expected due to accumulations ranging from 2-7 inches of snow and up to 0.10 inch of ice. Winds increase this afternoon, with some areas in southeast North Dakota seeing the potential for near 60 mph gusts. Further north and east, gust potential will be slightly lower; however, with falling snow, visibility is likely to be reduced, sometimes sharply. Much colder temperatures follow this system heading into Wednesday with highs expected to only reach the teens. Another clipper brings additional cold air and light snow to the area on Thursday and Friday, with the coldest air of the season thus far for most areas. Dangerously cold wind chills are possible each morning Friday through Sunday. ...Winter Storm and High Winds Today... Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate today as a strong clipper impacts the area. A strong thermal gradient, along with favorable moisture advection, will interact along a sharp baroclinic zone stretching from northwest to southeast. H5 low pressure traverses this region today, with warm air and moisture overrunning much colder air. Areas to the south of a line from about Devils Lake to Mayville, to Detroit Lakes could see ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. To the north, most areas should see snow, which could be heavy at times. Looking at snowfall accumulations, the 25th percentile comes in around 2 inches, with 75th percentile totals upwards of 6 inches. Additionally, a band of higher totals is possible, representing the 90th percentile values of roughly 8 inches. For areas in southeast North Dakota, rain and freezing rain will be the primary ptypes through late afternoon, with a change over to snow this evening. Strong cold air advection, however, will bring the risk of rapid freezing on surfaces, which could lead to travel impacts. Winds increase rapidly as the system pushes east, with northwest to north winds increasing this afternoon and evening, producing gusts up to 60 mph in parts of southeast North Dakota. ...Very Cold Temperatures Friday into the Weekend... A reinforcing surge of Arctic air pours into the area Thursday, with sharply colder temperatures expected Friday through Sunday. Afternoon highs on Friday will be in the single digits either side of zero, with highs on Saturday remaining below zero. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the 20s below zero Friday night and Saturday night, with wind chills as low as 40 below zero. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 IFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period as a winter storm moves into the region. Look for a range of precipitation, to include freezing rain and snow at KDVL and KFAR, with mostly snow expected at KGFK, KTVF, and KBJI. Low visibility, as low as 1/4 mile, is likely during periods of moderate snowfall; however, prevailing visibility will vary between 1/2 mile and 3 miles. Winds increase substantially this afternoon out of the northwest to north. Gusts to near 50 knots are possible at KFAR, with gusts upwards of 35-40 knots at KGFK and KDVL. Wind gust potential is slightly lower at KTVF and KBJI, where we could see 20-30 knot gusts out of the north to northwest. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008- 015-016-026-027-029-030-054. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ024- 028-038-039-049-052-053. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006- 014. MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001-002- 004-007-008-013>015. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ003- 029. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ003-029. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch