####018006039#### FXCA62 TJSJ 190806 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 406 AM AST Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The risk of flooding will remain elevated today, especially for the municipalities along the interior. Another active afternoon is expected under a light wind flow. Soils are saturated and rivers are running high, so even little precipitation may result in flooding and mudslides. This afternoon activity will continue for the next few days. Some Saharan dust could reach the islands early in the next workweek, and temperatures are expected to warm up too. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... Showers lingered across the interior sections of Puerto Rico during the evening hours however cleared before midnight when an increase of passing showers over northern Puerto Rico and the USVI were seen. Winds lightened and became variable with speeds around 3 mph this morning. Heavy rainfall yesterday caused Rio Grande de Manati and Rio La Plata to overflow their banks, causing flooding on the roads they intersect. Due to this, flood warnings were issued until the morning. A light lower level steering flow is hinting at another afternoon of active weather for the interior to southern sections of Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, passing showers across windward sections will continue. During the afternoon, convection will likely begin across southwestern PR, then spreading eastward along the Cordillera Central. Thunderstorms are possible and will be capable of producing lightning and strong wind gusts. Heavy rainfall is very likely with a few inches of accumulation possible across sections that are already saturated due to previous days of rainfall. Due to this, there is an elevated to significant risk of flooding for the central interior sections of Puerto Rico today. Take caution and watch for rapid river rising, mudslides, and flooded streets. Showers are expected to linger through the early evening hours. However, the arrival of drier air will limit the amount of rain seem through the night. Passing showers remain possible. As an area of high pressure at the surface located in the western Atlantic continues to build, light to moderate NE winds will continue. This will concentrate Saturday's afternoon convection across the southwestern sections of Puerto Rico. However, due to the arrival of drier air, less rain is forecast compared to the previous days. A similar pattern is expected on Sunday as the aforementioned surface high moves north of the region causing veering in the surface winds to an easterly direction, which will bring the best chance of rain across the interior to western sections of Puerto Rico. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday... The next workweek will begin with a 60% chance of experiencing above normal precipitation across the local islands. First of all, a high pressure system northeast of the islands will maintain the winds from the southeast at around 8 knots. A straight line of moisture stretching from a low pressure system just east of the high pressure will keep a dense Saharan-Air-Layer just south of the local islands on Monday. However, small concentrations of these particulates could reach the islands, so skies may look hazy at times. With moisture lingering around, showers and isolated thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the Cordillera Central in the afternoon. The winds from 850 to 700 mb are expected to be from the south, so this convection will move northward, possible reaching portions of the San Juan metro area. Then, another low pressure system is expected to exit the eastern coast of the United States, and the surface high will migrate northward. The line of moisture will continue to meander around the northeastern Caribbean, providing enough moisture to fuel afternoon convection through Thursday. On Friday, additional induced patches of moisture will be dragged across the region, but more breaks of sunshine are expected. Even with the afternoon rains, enough heating is expected late in the morning, and with a southerly flow, temperatures will be on the hot side, with highs reaching the upper 80s and low 90s, and heat indices above the 100 degree mark. && .AVIATION... (06z) TAFS Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, tempo MVFR conds are possible at TJPS thru 19/19z-22z due to vicinity TS. Low level winds will continue from the north-northeast around 10 kt. && .MARINE... A set of surface troughs, one to the northwest and other to the northeast of the islands will promote light to locally moderate northeast winds today. A small northeasterly swell will move across the Atlantic waters through the weekend. The surface trough northeast of the region and a surface high pressure building across the western Atlantic will promote moderate trades by the weekend. && .BEACH FORECAST... A small northeasterly swell will continue to move across the local islands, maintaining the risk of rip currents moderate for northern Puerto Rico, Culebra and eastern St. Croix. && .HYDROLOGY... Another round of strong showers and thunderstorms is expected for today under a very light wind flow. Due to previous rainfalls, soils are saturated and rivers are running high in the interior of Puerto Rico. Therefore, the risk for flooding and mudslides will be elevated again today. Additionally, it is likely that afternoon activity will not only focus on the main island of Puerto Rico, but Vieques, Culebra and the Virgin Islands could see convection popping up as well. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RC LONG TERM....ERG ####018003356#### FXUS63 KFSD 190808 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 308 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwest winds with gusts to around 40 mph expected today. - Cold morning lows below freezing are expected again Saturday morning and Sunday morning. - Moderate to high (40-70+%) chances for rain return late Sunday night into Monday. At this time amounts appear to be on the lighter side with only a 30-50% chance for more than a tenth of an inch in southwest MN. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 After a cold start to the morning, strong west to northwest flow is expected today with relatively deep mixing. Model soundings showing maximum wind speeds in the mid to upper 30 knots in the mixed layer, with the strongest winds most likely near and north of I-90. Right now not anticipating a wind advisory, but should be close to a low end advisory with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible. Also noted in the soundings is some weak instability at the top of the mixed layer, again better north of I-90. May see some brief light rain or snow showers during peak heating this afternoon, but not anticipating any accumulations. Winds will remain on the stronger side tonight, but with a cold air mass temperatures will still fall below freezing in most locations. While the area remains in cool northwest flow on Saturday the winds will not be as strong which will help in making the highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s not feel quite so chilly. With lighter winds heading into Sunday morning as a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the area, a more widespread hard freeze will be possible with lows more in the mid to upper 20s in most locations. A fairly quick moving system will move through later Sunday night into Monday. While some precipitation is possible, it should remain on the lighter side. The better chances will likely be off to the northeast. The probabilities for a tenth of an inch of rain or more is about 30-50% across parts of southwest MN. Outside of the precipitation chances it will be a windy and mild day with gusts around 35 mph and highs in the mid and upper 60s. Once this system passes confidence is a bit lower as models diverge on some weaker waves mid week as well as the potential for a bit stronger wave late in the week into next weekend. Overall temperatures will be around normal with lows of 35 to 45 and highs 55 to 65. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light northwesterly winds overnight. Winds then increase again on Friday morning, gusting around 20 to 30 kts through the afternoon and early evening. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for SDZ056-062-066- 067-069>071. MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...JM ####018003318#### FXUS63 KICT 190809 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 309 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stepping back a month with a March-like feel thru the weekend with only spotty light rain chances. - Warming trend closer to late April climo early next week. - Better Spring-like convective chances by Day 7/Thursday and beyond. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis this morning reveal a trough over the northern plains and a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This is resulting in primarily zonal flow across the central plains that will likely remain persistent over the next day or so. A mid-level baroclinic zone across Nebraska will sag southward during the day today and will likely reside across the western half of Kansas by tonight. Weak perturbations in the mid/upper level flow along with a subtle mid-level frontogenesis tonight into Saturday morning should be enough to trigger some isolated to widely scattered light rain showers primarily for area along I-70 and west of I-135. Rainfall totals will likely remain well below a tenth of an inch. Rain chances quickly come to an end Saturday morning, and a cool day is expected on Saturday with many locations struggling to get above 55 degrees by the afternoon hours. Cloudy skies will limit radiational cooling Saturday night/Sunday morning, but a surface ridge across the area should allow most places to dip into the 30s. Areas of frost are possible along the I-70 corridor Sunday morning. A warming trend will commence on Sunday, and the return of southerly flow should allow for better moisture to begin streaming northward to start off the work week. There are some indications from both deterministic and ensemble global models that the region may see a couple rounds of storms next week. However, there are still numerous questions around quality of moisture along with temporal and spatial differences in the arrival of the next upper wave. So while severe weather isn't a guarantee, there is a signal that the pattern next week will be active, and there may be more than one opportunity at rain/storm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure is expected to remain situated across the Plains with the cold front now pushed down into South TX. Band of mid level clouds is in place across NW KS into central parts of the state with some of these affecting KRSL-KGBD and eventually KSLN. Confidence is high that they will remain at VFR levels. Light northeast winds will come around to the south and east across the region but will remain on the light side. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Warm, dry, and windy conditions will support very high grassland fire danger Monday afternoon for locations along and west of the I- 135/US-81 corridor. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...RBL FIRE WEATHER...JC ####018004815#### FXUS64 KMAF 190809 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 309 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 WV imagery shows a large trough centered over Ontario, and an open wave approaching the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front has banked up against the higher terrain, through which it will push by 12Z or so. Temperatures will be tricky today, with quite the spread on models/MOS numbers, with forecast highs at KMAF ranging anywhere from 57 on the MET/NAM to 70 on the MAV/GFS. W/the NAM handling cold fronts better than the ECMWF/GFS, and given abundant cloud cover forecast throughout the day, undercutting the NBM seems reasonable, and we've used the NBM25 to bring highs closer to the NAM. Early this morning, the NBM begins developing convection over the lwr Trans Pecos, and then west into the Big Bend Area/Presidio Valley as shortwaves move through southwest flow aloft, and interact w/the frontal boundary along the river. Tonight, surface winds will veer to easterly, advecting Gulf moisture to the west, and upslope flow will combine with the approaching west coast trough to increase POPs E-W, especially after 06Z Saturday. Mixing and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight minimums at or just above normal. Saturday, the west coast trough arrives, and models hint at a secondary front working its way into the area. This looks to be the best chance for precip this forecast, especially northeast. Unfortunately, this looks to be a high POP, low QPF event, which seems more typical as of late. But at this point, beggars can't be choosers, and we'll take what we can get. Temperatures Saturday afternoon should come in ~ 16-18F below normal. On the upside, this should be the coldest day this forecast, with warmer conditions to follow into the extended. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 The west coast trough continues to move east of the region on Sunday, thus ending rainfall for now. Temperatures remain well below normal across most of the region with 60s holding on due to continued cloud cover. Further southwest 70s and 80s return to these locations as filtered sunshine returns. The start of the new week sees a gradual building of the ridge once again. Temperatures increase back into the widespread 70s and 80s with the aide of return flow and mostly sunny skies on Monday. This warming continues into Tuesday with 80s for the majority and 90s along the river valleys as the low-level thermal ridge overspreads our area. A weak front and increased cloud cover may decrease the warm temperatures slightly by Wednesday but most remain in the 80s. The weak front may bring an isolated thunderstorm or two across the northeastern Permian Basin as well. By the end of next week, the very warm weather continues, 80s and 90s, while the dryline slowly backs up into eastern portions of the area. At the same time, our next weather system should begin to slide into the southwest US. This approaching system begins to increase thunderstorm chances once again across the eastern CWA along and east of the dryline. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Latest surface obs indicate the front has made it through all terminals, and northeasterly flow will continue next 24 hours. All models indicate a stratus deck developing late tonight E-W, w/NBM suggesting MVFR cigs all terminals for at least a few hours Friday. Cigs should scatter out to VFR sometime during the afternoon all terminals, but may redevelop near the end of the forecast period KMAF/KINK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 50 57 44 / 10 70 100 60 Carlsbad 68 53 63 47 / 0 20 60 30 Dryden 78 62 74 52 / 30 50 90 60 Fort Stockton 71 57 69 47 / 30 50 90 50 Guadalupe Pass 67 52 64 44 / 0 10 40 10 Hobbs 60 47 56 42 / 10 50 90 30 Marfa 79 50 78 41 / 30 30 50 30 Midland Intl Airport 60 51 59 44 / 10 60 100 50 Odessa 61 53 59 45 / 10 60 90 50 Wink 66 54 65 47 / 10 40 80 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44 ####018007566#### FXUS61 KAKQ 190810 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 410 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure centered over New England early this morning, will shift off the coast during today. A cold front will move across the region late tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, weak high pressure was centered over New England, while weak low pressure was located well off the VA coast. Also, low pressure was over wrn OH with a cold front extending from the low swrd through KY and TN. Onshore flow from the combination of the high and low to our NE or E, was bringing low level moisture and lots of stratus into the region. Temps were ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s. The high and low to our NE and E will shift farther E and out to sea today through tonight, allowing the low to our NW to pull a cold front twd and across the area today through tonight. A backdoor front that is south of the area early this morning, will try to retreat back to the north during today, as the cold front approaches. The high temp forecast will largely depend on how fast that front retreats (and also how quickly the low stratus burns off). Have continued to trend the forecast cooler (esply near the immediate Atlc coast and on the Eastern Shore), where temps likely won't get above the upper 50s to mid 60s. Still think it warms well into the mid to upper 70s across interior srn VA and NE NC. The greatest amount of uncertainty with respect to temps today remains near the RIC Metro/I-64 Corridor (where model solutions still range from the 60s to lower 70s). Rain chances will return this aftn. Rain will be sctd at first before increasing in coverage a bit more after 800 pm this evening into Sat morning. Any chances for tstms will likely be focused across the west/southwest portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating across the east, though still cannot rule out a stray rumble of thunder farther north this evening into Sat morning, due to increasing elevated instability. There is a low-end, marginal threat for severe storms across far SW portions of the area (Mecklenburg County), but again this will depend on how far north the front can retreat. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storms. This is not looking like a major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF forecasts are still showing barely .10-.25" in a few spots, though that may even be a stretch. Lows tonight will range through the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... The front likely moves ESE of the FA by the middle of Sat morning, and isolated to perhaps sctd showers (isolated tstm) will likely linger over ESE portions of the region through late Sat morning into early Sat aftn. We should see at least partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area by Sat aftn, as drier air filters in behind the front. As of now, forecast highs Sat will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night into Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s to around 50. Sun through Sun night, a southern stream low pressure system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states and off the SE coast. This means that rain chances will return, likely by Sun aftn across the southern half of the forecast area. Temps will likely be cooler across southern portions of the forecast area (due to clouds and increasing rain chances), with highs only in the lower 60s (potentially even upper 50s in spots). The northern 2/3rds of the forecast area will see highs in the lower to mid 60s (cooler across the Eastern Shore). Rain chances will continue over the srn/SE counties Sun evening into early Mon morning. Lows will range through the 40s to near 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... Any lingering rain will end over extrm SE counties Mon morning, as the low tracks farther out to sea. Temps on Mon will be a similar story compared to Sun with northern portions of the area warmer than the southern 1/3rd of the CWA. High pressure briefly builds over the area Tue AM before another system brings shower chances to the area by Wednesday. Although it will be cool Tuesday morning, temps should rebound nicely during the day as the high moves offshore and winds become southerly. The cold front crosses the area likely mid day Wednesday with cooler air filtering back into the region Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Onshore flow was bringing low level moisture into the region early this morning, resulting in IFR and low MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites. IFR/LIFR CIGs will linger through this morning, before improving to MVFR by late this morning or early this aftn. Clouds will then linger through the day today with VFR/MVFR CIGs. Finally, sctd showers (maybe isolated tstms) move in from W to E for late this aftn into Sat morning. Outlook: Rain chances generally end after Sat morning, but return later Sun into early Mon, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast, east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Latest analysis shows a backdoor cold front now well south of the local waters. Surge of E-NE winds has gradually weakened, as high pressure builds south from the northern Mid-Atlantic. Will allow SCA over the lower bay to expire at 08z. SCAs remain in effect into at least late this morning with choppy E-NE wind wave lingering into midday across the northern and central coastal waters, with significant seas slightly lower (3-4 ft) to the south of the VA/NC border. E-NE winds ~10-15 kt veer to the E-SE this afternoon ahead of another cold front which drops across the region late tonight (Fri night) into Saturday morning. Winds veer around to the NNW post frontal Sat morning, but should be mainly sub-SCA given weak cool-air advection. Winds remain onshore ~10 kt over the waters Sat aftn and evening, as a weak coastal trough/coastal front remains over the area. WNW winds do increase Sat night into Sunday, but look to remain sub- SCA at this time, with deepening low pressure along the front nudging it farther E-SE and offshore. Meanwhile, 1022+mb high pressure builds in from the west. Waves mainly 1-2 ft this weekend, seas 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south. Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly) need SCA over southern coastal waters south of Cape Charles by the time we get into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ654- 656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG LONG TERM...AJB/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AM/MAM