####018009378#### FXUS61 KAKQ 062033 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 333 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure becomes centered across the region tonight, with areas of fog and freezing fog possible. Primarily dry conditions are expected Sunday, but a weak low pressure system brings a chance for rain and snow Monday. Mainly dry for Tuesday through Thursday, with shower chances increasing with the next cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Freezing fog is possible inland tonight, dry and a bit warmer Sunday. The latest WX analysis shows a rather weak pressure gradient over the local area, with widespread low clouds hanging on east of the Blue Ridge. Temperatures have remained quite cold in the the piedmont, in the low-mid 30s which is about 10 degrees below NBM forecasted readings as of 3 PM. Somewhat warmer air is in place across SE VA/NE NC (temperatures in the 40s). Challenging forecast tonight with respect to fog/freezing fog as the models continue to strongly suggest that it becomes widespread along and W of I-95 after midnight, while the latest conditions have been much slower to allow for any clearing over the CWA (which leads to lower confidence). For now, will still show some clearing this evening, with light winds conducive to radiational cooling later tonight. NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings continue to depict boundary level saturation with the potential for more widespread and dense fog/freezing fog. Lows tonight fall into the 20s for most of the area with low 30s near the bay/coast. After morning fog/freezing fog, Sunday would eventually see partial sunshine. especially south, along with milder temperatures rising into the low-mid 40s north, with lower 50s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Weak low pressure off the SE coast will bring a chance for rain/snow changing to snow Monday. - Dry and cold Tuesday. High pressure will be offshore Sunday night, allowing low level flow to become southerly ahead of an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, weak low pressure lifts ENE off the coast of northern Florida, gradually strengthening off the SE coast on Monday. All of the models have trended farther north with the precip chances Monday, with a similar temperature profile to previous runs. As a short wave aloft traverses the region on Monday, expect at least a chc for precip for most of the CWA (generally highest PoPs across the south). Deep layer moisture is still somewhat limited behind the surface cold front, but the trends are wetter so would not rule out the potential for QPF amounts to ~0.25" and think the NBM is behind on the trends. With ~1030 mb sfc high pressure sliding east from the Great Lakes into NY/PA during the day Monday, there will be a good feed of cold air into the mid-Atlantic, with very cold air aloft. Latest 12Z/06 GEFS/GEPS/ENS have trended significantly upward and now show 20-60% chances for at least 1" snowfall across central and south central VA (assuming a 10:1 SLR) which may actually end up being more like 15:1 later in the day. Will mention the winter WX potential Monday in the HWO for now and continue to monitor model trends over the next few cycles as this will bear watching. High temps Monday top out in the mid 30s NW to the low 40s SE (but if moisture lingers Mon evening even SE zones have some snow potential). Very cold air moves into the region Monday night with lows in the mid to upper teens inland, mainly low to mid 20s near the coast. High pressure over the region on Tuesday will become centered south of the area late in the day. Mostly sunny, but cold Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM EST Saturday... - Milder Wednesday and Thursday. - Another front crosses the region late in the week with colder temps and precip potential. Medium range models and ensembles are in decent agreement that midweek should be milder as a deep upper trough amplifies across central Canada, with low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes. This allows for an increasing SW low level flow Wed, with highs into the 50s for most. Remaining relatively mild Wed night and Thursday, with increasing rain chances Thursday night/Friday as the next system impacts the region. Precip potentially changes over to a rain/snow mix before ending Friday night. Saturday looks dry and cold as high pressure builds in from the NW. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1257 PM EST Saturday... IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs continue to prevail across the terminals this afternoon, with SBY and PHF still observing reduced VIS. This was a tricky aviation forecast as most guidance suggests that CIGs will start to lift over the next hour or so, though only ORF has shown any promise for that based on obs. TEMPOs have been included at all sites aside from ORF through 19z, though amendments may be necessary over the next few hours if these low clouds don't scatter out quite as quickly as forecast. Tonight will bring another decent set-up for fog, especially at RIC. With temperatures forecast to drop below freezing, there is a chance that RIC could see patchy freezing fog. All other sites may also see some fog, though confidence is lower. Have left SBY VFR for the time being since fog looks more favorable at the other terminals, but once again confidence is low in this and we will continue to monitor trends in both guidance and obs through tonight. Winds will generally be light and variable through the TAF period. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions return Sunday and Sunday night. Another system Monday morning may bring degraded flight conditions to the terminals. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... - Benign marine conditions through Sunday. - Another round of SCAs expected early Monday as a strong cold front moves across the local waters, with a brief period of gale force gusts possible. - Another system may bring degraded marine conditions to the area Wednesday through the end of the week. Weak high pressure is spread across the Southeast, with an area of low pressure well offshore this afternoon. This set-up has led to a weak gradient across the local waters. Marine observation sites are measuring winds of 5-10 kts and waves of around 1 ft in the Bay and seas ranging between 3-4 ft in the Ocean. The aforementioned high will slide northeastward across the area over the next 24 hours, leading to benign marine conditions through the end of the weekend. Winds will become light and variable, with waves remaining around 1 ft and seas subsiding to 2-3 ft in the Ocean. Marine conditions will rapidly deteriorate early Monday morning as a cold front drop through the area. Winds will reach high-end SCA conditions for a majority of the day and through the first part of Monday night. This will occur as high pressure builds southward across the region and an area of low pressure skirts northeast off the Carolina coast. With the tightened gradient in place, combined with strong CAA expected in the wake of this front, there will likely be a period of gale-force gusts accompanying at least the initial push of this drier, colder air. Guidance has trended upwards some in the southern waters, though our in-house wind probs remain >50% for gale force gusts. This upwards trend is the result of a slightly closer placement of the low to the Carolina coast as opposed to a low further offshore. There is still some uncertainty in the exact location of the low at this time, and we will continue to iron out the exact details over the next few forecast cycles. With the lower confidence and the possible brief nature of this wind surge, have held of on a Gale Watch for now. High pressure is forecast to build across the area late Monday night through Tuesday, and winds will quickly diminish in response. This reprieve from winds will be fleeting as another system approaches the region on Wednesday. Winds will begin to increase Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts across the region, followed by another strong cold frontal passage by late week. As winds increase on Monday, waves will rapidly build to 3-5 ft in the Bay (highest at the mouth of the Bay) and seas will build to 6-8 ft in the Ocean. Despite an expected downtrend in winds late Monday night through Tuesday, seas will be slower to subside and will likely remain near or just briefly drop below SCA criteria before building again with the second wind surge forecast for Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/RHR AVIATION...RHR/NB MARINE...AC/MAM ####018003631#### FXUS65 KPIH 062033 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 133 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few snow showers will be possible throughout tonight, but most areas will be dry with some sunshine today. - Light rain and snow picks up again Sunday afternoon for many locations. Precipitation threat continues each period through at least Thursday. - Windy to very windy conditions should peak today in the Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley/southern hills and subside by evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 133 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Satellite imagery shows fast northwest flow still in place over East Idaho, and there is little upstream to significantly change this pattern. Across East Idaho, mid level cloud cover drapes the mountain areas, and a few showers remain possible this evening into tonight. Accumulations should remain minimal, with little to no impact. Gusty winds across the south expected to continue to diminish through the evening. Next shortwave upstream arrives Sunday, with showers increasing throughout the day and continuing through Sunday night. Temperatures at lower elevations remain mild, with rain or a rain/snow mix up to about 5000 ft. Snow levels could be slightly higher across the South Hills and Albion mountains. The focus for precipitation will remain focused across the western edges of the central mountains along and near the Sawtooths, and along the highlands between I-15 and the WY border. Model probabilistic spread supports 2-6" across the higher elevations, potentially impacting Galena Summit, Pine Creek Pass, and the Island Park region. No winter related headlines are anticipated at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 133 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Main feature and impacts in the initial time frame of the long term will be an extended atmospheric river event with large quantities of Pacific moisture transported into Idaho from the Pacific northwest. Heaviest precipitation will likely be Tuesday and Wednesday. There is high chances of over 1 inch qpf mainly in the Sawtooths, central mountains and eastern mountains. It will be an extremely warm event with snow levels beginning at 6 to 7 thousand feet Monday rising to 7500 to 8500 feet Wednesday. So any heavy snow accumulations are expected to be well above 7 thousand feet with widespread rain likely in lower elevations in the Monday through Wednesday period. Highs in the Monday through Saturday period will be extremely warm as much as 15 degrees above normal mainly in the 40s and into the mid 50s lower elevations. Windy conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday in this pattern especially in the Snake River Plain. Travel impacts in this event are mainly expected at pass levels where the heaviest snow will occur, but as mentioned snow levels will be extremely high through the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1047 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Overall will have VFR conditions other than DIJ. Here will be the main impacts. Have tempo MVFR with occasional snow and rain showers and then MVFR after 06Z with at least vicinity showers. SUN, PIH, IDA and BYI will be VFR through 18Z Sunday. 20 to 30 mph wind gusts expected through 01Z at BYI, PIH and IDA as well today. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMH LONG TERM...GK AVIATION...GK ####018007897#### FXUS63 KDVN 062034 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 234 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fast moving clipper system will bring accumulating snow to the area tonight. Winter weather headlines are in effect for much of the area. A small part of the winter weather advisories have been upgraded to a winter storm warning. - An active weather pattern will persist into next week with several more rounds of precipitation. - Another surge of arctic air will settle into the Midwest for the end of next week and weekend following the passage of the Thursday clipper system. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Very short range model guidance continues a gradual southward trend in the axis of the heaviest snow accumulations. Parts of the winter weather advisories have been upgraded to a low end winter storm warning. Through sunset clouds will continue to thicken and lower across the area. After sunset snow will begin in the far western areas and overspread the area from west to east through the early morning hours of Sunday. As noted earlier, the model guidance has done a gradual shift to the south with the axis of the heaviest snow. In looking over the incoming data, there are suggestions of banded snow with this clipper system. This is somewhat reflected in accumulation probabilities at various locations across the area. There are indications that there will be a narrow (approximately 20 mile wide) band of snow accumulation of 5-7 inches. Probabilities on this occurring are at 55-70 percent. The rough axis is approximately just south of Waterloo, IA to Milledgeville, IL. Outside of the axis of the heaviest snow snow, amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected with a sharp gradient in snow accumulations south of I-80. South of a Washington, IA to Aledo, IL line snowfall amounts will quickly drop to an inch of accumulation. Further to the south, there is still the potential for a mix or even a light glaze generally south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line. The potential does exist for a brief change over to all rain. Snowfall accumulations in this area will be one half inch or less. Snowfall rates generally look to be 0.5 to 1 inch per hour for this event. However, in the axis of the heaviest snow, there is a 50-70 percent probability of 1-1.5 inch/hour snowfall rates between 11 PM and 3 AM. After 3 AM, snowfall rates will quickly drop to 0.5 inch/hour or less as the snow ends from west to east through sunrise. On Sunday, lingering light snow and flurries will be seen through mid-morning east of the Mississippi as the system exits the area. Skies will gradually clear through the remainder of the day but breezy conditions will be seen in the wake of the departing system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 232 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Sunday night/Monday Assessment...Very high (>90%) confidence of colder than normal temperatures A quick shot of high pressure combined with the fresh snow cover will keep temperatures below normal along with dry conditions. Attention then turns to the next system. Monday night/Tuesday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a clipper system side-swiping parts of the area. The next clipper system races through the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday morning. The better forcing and moisture is well north of the area. Thus right now it appears that areas east of a Manchester, IA to Princeton, IL line will get a period of flurries or at worst several hours of light snow. The model consensus currently has 20-25% pops for the area. If the light snow scenario would occur, accumulations would be a dusting at worst. Tuesday night through Thursday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of two additional systems. Low (20-30%) confidence regarding precipitation type for the first system. Another clipper system moves through the Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Like the previous system the models project the track to be north of the area. However, the track is further south than the previous system. Such a track would put the area initially on the warm side of the system until the low passes. Being on the warm side of the system raises questions regarding precipitation type. Thermal profiles of the atmosphere suggest the precipitation may initially develop as rain or possibly a rain/snow mix. If the precipitation arrives shortly after sunset (suggested by all models), then rain would be the primary precipitation type until the atmosphere cools and allows a rain/snow mix to develop later in the evening and much of the overnight hours. Once the low passes, cold advection will quickly change any mix over to all snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but accumulations right now look to be a dusting at best. The cold advection looks impressive with winds of 15-25 mph expected and potential gusts of 30-35 mph. The diurnal recovery of temperatures on Wednesday will be minimal from the overnight lows. Following almost immediately on the heels of the second clipper system will be a hybrid clipper/colorado low system that arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. The more southern track of this system means there is a high (>80%) probability of seeing another round of accumulating snow. Given the proximity of this system with the previous clipper system, there will not be much moisture in place ahead of the system. Thus the moisture associated with the system will be what is available for precipitation production. While there are timing differences, there is loose agreement that the precipitation will be arriving after sunset. Thus with the atmosphere cooling, the precipitation type will be in the form of snow. While not certain, this snow will have a medium to high (60-80%) probability of being the dry, fluffy type. Thus the rain/snow ratio will be minimally in the 12-15 to 1 range. Given the limited system moisture, snowfall amounts generally look to be light. Thursday night through Saturday Assessment...A certainty (>98%) of another round of arctic air for the Midwest Lingering light snow/flurries will end Thursday evening as the system departs the area. Behind the system, another surge of arctic air will move into the Midwest keeping temperatures well below normal for the end of the week and next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 MVFR cigs will turn to IFR as snow overspreads the area after 00z Sunday. The next 6 hours will see low MVFR cigs with VFR vsbys. A snow overspreads the area, high snowfall rates with vsbys under 1 mile are possible, especially at CID/DBQ and MLI. Will hold off on going any lower on vsbys at this time due to low confidence. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for IAZ040-051>054-066. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for IAZ041-042-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098- 099. IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ015-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ001-002-016>018. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ007-009. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Gibbs