####018004195#### FXUS63 KGID 130919 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 419 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A bit of fog is possible this morning with very temporarily visibilities falling below 1 mile through around 9 AM. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east today as the responsible area of low pressure slowly transitions east southeast into Missouri. - Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant for at least the next 7 days, generally fluctuating in the 70s to lower 80s each afternoon. - Off an on chances for thunderstorms exist across the area through the period, although most chances are on the lower end and severe weather appears unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An area of low pressure can be seen on satellite spinning across central Kansas this morning...slowly tracking eastward towards Missouri. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are rotating around this low and across the local area, but they should shift east through the morning/afternoon hours, with diminishing coverage and possibly even a little sunshine returning by afternoon. For this morning, low stratus has been attempting to develop across the local area, and as winds drop off, we have occasionally seen visibilities diminish to around 1/2SM at times...although this fog has not been persistent of widespread. Even so, think the potential for additional patchy fog development exists through the early morning hours, with this potential rapidly diminishing by around 9 AM. As a result, added the mention to both the HWO and forecast grids this morning. Otherwise...expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to gradually shift southeast through the afternoon hours...eventually exiting the southeastern most parts of the area by early evening. Previous runs of the HRRR/RAP brought an additional area of storms across the central portion of the area during the early afternoon hours...but models have since backed off on this and have more of a diminishing trend in pops through the afternoon hours. For tonight...mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop off into the 40s across the entire forecast area, which is a bit chillier than the past couple of nights, but still very seasonable for mid-May. Overall...seasonable conditions are expected through the period with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms coming with a weak cold front and upper level wave that should pass across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday. While pops are fairly high with this event, this does not appear to be a big soaker, with overall QPF amounts with this disturbance less than an quarter of an inch. Thereafter...the upper level flow becomes mostly zonal and fairly weak through the remainder of the period with daily weak disturbances justifying only very small pops across the local area. Looking at ensemble data, no day looks very promising for widespread or significant precip over the next week with some hints of a couple better precip chances coming the following week in both the GFS/EC data. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Models are indicating the potential for low cloud development over the next couple of hours, and looking at a couple of webcams and the latest ob at HDE...some low clouds and br starting to develop in spots. Held off on LIFR stratus settling in at KGRI and KEAR for a couple of hours...but once it settles in...expect it to persist through the early morning hours, with clouds eventually clearing from west to east and VCSH potential also diminishing through the mid to late morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by midday...with very light winds overnight increasing out of the north and gusting to between 15-20KTS aft 13/18Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi ####018002827#### FXUS65 KGGW 130923 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 323 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - There will be frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning this afternoon (including the risk for gusty winds from outflows of storms late this afternoon/evening) and continuing for the next several days. - Warmer than normal temperatures linger, before a cold frontal passage later today leads to more seasonal conditions this week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Wildfire smoke has dispersed more across the region overnight, with some haze and moderate air quality remaining. One more warm day with highs around 80 today comes ahead of a stronger shortwave trough and cold front that will move through the forecast area this afternoon and night. Models and ensembles are pointing toward just enough instability and shear ingredients suggestive for a few strong thunderstorms with this system. Some (20-40%) of the 00Z HREF members show gusty winds in excess of 40 mph being produced by the convective storms through about midnight/early Tuesday morning. However, except for near the Canadian border there is less than a 30% chance of a tenth of an inch of rainfall through tonight due to the more localized nature of convection. The pattern favors near normal temperatures Tuesday and beyond, though ensemble models differ on the extent of troughing and moisture available for continued shower/thunderstorm chances. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: High confidence exists on the general temperature trend this week. Adjustments were made to the wind and wind gust grids Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning to account for local, convective wind enhancement. There is low confidence on the timing of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and beyond, as well as the total amount of rain for any particular location. -Zanker/Enriquez && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0900Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS: MVFR - VFR DISCUSSION: Smoke has continued to disperse overnight, so there is high confidence for visibility to remain VFR aside from a brief reduction to MVFR from any heavier rain showers later today. Otherwise, look for scattered thunderstorms to develop behind a cold front this afternoon, primarily impacting KGGW and KOLF between 22-03Z. WINDS: Valleys remain light and variable through this morning. Elsewhere, winds will be out of the south/southeast at 10-15 kts, becoming northwest this afternoon. Briefly gusty and erratic wind potential exists with showers/thunderstorms. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow