####018008045#### FXUS65 KCYS 121145 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 545 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk of severe weather Wednesday as monsoonal moisture flows into the region. Showers and thunderstorms continue on Thursday but severe risk will decline and move southeast. - Warm again today but cooler than the start of the week, with much cooler temperatures through the weekend. - Warming trend early next week may bring us back to near normal late summer warmth. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Monsoonal moisture will now move into the region as we undergo a pattern change bringing daily chances of showers and thunderstorms for our entire CWA alongside an initial risk of severe weather, followed by an increased flooding risk. This morning the upper level ridge that has been controlling our weather pattern will begin shifting eastwards, turning our flow aloft to southwesterly and allowing much needed moisture to begin infiltrating our area. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will slowly descend across the area through the day, allowing flow behind it to shift to southerly to southeasterly and aiding in moisture return at the surface. This front will lead to cooler temperatures during the later half of the week and into the weekend, but for today we will get one more round of above normal. While not as hot as the past several days, highs will range in the 80's to 90's, which is around 3-6 degrees above average. Meanwhile, storm initiation is expected from both this boundary and upslope flow beginning as early as late this morning and continuing into the evening hours. Steep lapse rates of 8-10 C/km alongside MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg west of the I-25 corridor and some patchy bulk shear in the neighborhood of 20-40 knots could support stronger initial supercells or clusters capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The problem will be the continued use of the atmosphere and numerous showers and storms streaming into the region through the afternoon hours. This activity will likely use up these favorable parameters and by the evening hours expecting storms to relax and become sub-severe as widespread rainfall becomes the dominant concern. PWAT values will rise considerably, and by this evening we'll be looking at values between 1-1.6", roughly 150-175% of normal on average. The NBM paints a 20-60% probability of 0.5"+ of new rainfall, heaviest in the Nebraska Panhandle. Now while not an absolute soaker of a day, our incredibly dry ground can present a concern for being hydrophobic, and if we get any training storms of heavier downpours from stronger activity, then storms will have a marginal risk of flooding. Moving into Thursday our risk primarily shifts from severe weather to flooding. While not completely gone, our severe risk will be mostly relegated to Laramie County through the southern Nebraska Panhandle. CAMs develop a fresh batch of convection during the afternoon into the early evening across this area that could take advantage of modest instability and decent wind shear, creating another risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for the day. Otherwise, precipitation totals should jump up notably today as moisture hits its peak for this event. PWAT values are expected to rise to 160-180% of normal by the evening, with the NBM up to a 25-50% probability of 1" or more of new rainfall for the day, this time highest across the I-25 corridor south of Douglas. Once again any stronger storms or training rainfall alongside ground that may become saturated could lead to an increased flooding threat, with a slight risk overall expected across our entire CWA. Finally, the first notable cooldown from the summer will occur as temperatures bottom out in the mid 70's to low 80's for the day thanks to the cold front and widespread cloud cover. Friday however we may get enough clearing east of the I-25 corridor that temperatures will jump up just a tad for the day. Highs are still expected to sit in the mid to upper 70's for our western zones outside of the mountains, but widespread low to upper 80's should occur east of the mountains. But that's not to say our precipitation chances are done yet, as another round of of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon and into the evening. PWAT values do drop back down to around 130-150% of normal, still higher than normal though, and this activity could once again fuel a flooding risk. With the most likely area for stronger or multiple rounds of storms being Laramie County through the southern Nebraska Panhandle again, a slight risk for flooding is yet again expected for this area, while a widespread marginal risk elsewhere is anticipated. The best parameters for severe activity will also drift a bit further southeastward from our area, allowing a potential reprieve from stronger activity (though never ruling it out with how this region likes to over perform!) Overall though we'll finally see beneficial moisture, and precipitation chances should linger into the weekend, hopefully making at least a small dent into this potent drought. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Thursday evening starts off this long term period with monsoonal moisture moving in, and a shortwave moving through the area. With precipitable water values in the 1-1.5 range, RH values 60-90%, and the shortwave, its safe to say our area will be getting some much needed moisture. This moisture sticks around through Monday, bringing daily afternoon chances of precipitation. This precipitation looks to mainly be showers, but an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out especially near the NE panhandle with CAPE values near 1000J/kg. Winds do not appear to be out of the ordinary, staying below 15 knots most of the time. Temperatures cool off as a cold front moves over the area Thursday. 700mb temperatures stay near 12C during the daytime Thursday-Sunday, with nighttime temperatures getting near 10C. This means temperatures will cool off nearly 20F from what we have been experiencing. Typically our area has daytime temperatures near 83F this time of year. This is a welcomed break from our hot temperatures the last few weeks. With all of this monsoonal moisture coming in, fire weather is not a concern through this long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 536 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Messy forecast today as moisture brings widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the nighttime hours. Winds: Prevailing winds from the west for WY terminals, becoming messy and more variable when storms move through and after, while NE terminals should see primarily easterly winds, once again messy and variable near thunderstorms. CIGs: High based clouds or SKC conditions this morning give way to mid level clouds, dropping to around 5K feet with storms. Overnight into tomorrow morning, BR and MVFR to IFR conditions possible for NE terminals. VIS: Visibilities may reduce under heavy rainfall, with BR expected to bring further reduced VIS late tonight into tomorrow morning for NE terminals. Precipitation timing: Expect showers and thunderstorms to start forming during the late morning into early afternoon hours, becoming widespread by the mid to late afternoon (20-00Z). Gusty, variable winds possible with storms, with a slight severe risk for NE terminals. Activity should depart or weaken by 03-06Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...ML AVIATION...CG ####018006830#### FXUS63 KFSD 121146 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 646 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Any lingering showers and storm should out of our area closer to daybreak. - Areas of dense fog and low stratus may form again late tonight into Wednesday morning, though confidence in coverage is low. - Following a warm and dry Wednesday, an influx of moisture will bring a chance of thunderstorms into Thursday. Very uncertain, but a highly localized heavy rain risk could develop. - Cloud cover and cooler temperatures move in for Thursday and Friday, along with another risk of rain Thursday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 With ongoing severe weather across northern Nebraska, this update will be short and sweet. An ongoing MCS continues to propagate to the southeast this morning just south of the SD/NE state state line. While gradual weakening has occurred, this system is starting to take an eastward turn towards the U.S. Highway 20 corridor as of 3 am. As a result, a downstream severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of eastern NE and western IA through 10 am with Dakota and Dixon Counties being the main focus for our area. The main hazard would be wind gusts between 60-70 mph with a secondary threat being marginally large hail up to quarter size. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 THIS AFTERNOON: VERY humid conditions continue early this afternoon, but a wide array of temperatures in the region. Early morning stratus and fog has kept a lid on temperatures north of I-90, but south of the Interstate we've seen highs climb towards the 90s. Heat index in a few areas may reach the 100 degree mark. A couple patches of ACCAS based AOA 600 mb continue to move along I-90 this afternoon, but development potential remains low as this moves into NW Iowa. Will continue to monitor. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: CAMS continue to struggle resolving the myriad of weak forcing waves moving through the Plains, and these trends continue today. The result is sporadic convection developing over the western High Plains in the late afternoon and evening and then gradual tracks southeast overnight. Despite the high level of instability across the Dakotas, very few strong focusing mechanisms for convection remain apparent this afternoon. What may happen is gradual upslope flow over the western Dakotas combined with increasing SE 850mb flow could induce a cluster or two of storms. This activity will tend to follow the mean flow and push east southeast into the overnight hours. However, a closer look at soundings continues to show fairly strong inhibition both to surface based parcels but also to elevated parcels. So with that in mind, planning on keeping PoPs low, with some focus along I-90 and areas moreso over the Missouri River valley. Continue to monitor trends this evening, as strong storms could bring some higher wind gusts if they survive. Higher confidence again in the development of stratus and fog given the continued light northeast wind and trapped boundary layer moisture. Much like this morning, areas of locally dense fog may form with widespread stratus potential possible. WEDNESDAY-WENDESDAY NIGHT: Assuming stratus/fog does not hinder the warmup tomorrow significantly, we'll continue to see another warm afternoon on Wednesday with dry conditions. Dew points will remain in the 70s, which should cap high temperatures in to the middle 80s. A slight shift in the mid-lvl flow begins Wednesday, with persistent ridging over the Four Corners translating eastward into the Southern Plains through the day. This will result in pulling a sub-tropical moisture plume with embedded vorticity northward through the Rockies and into the Plains late in the day and overnight. Slightly better signals for convection tied to this wave will begin to focus over western SD/NE late in the afternoon, with rain gradually shifting eastward into Thursday morning. The severe weather risks remain on the lower side but not non-zero as some lingering wind threat could present itself along the MO river valley. Mid-lvl lapse rates quickly worsen as you move into the overnight hours however. One noticeable thing to watch is the increasing PWAT values which approach 1.75" by Thursday morning. This could signal at least the potential for highly localized heavier rain amounts, which the HREF PMM signals in the 2-4" range. The key to watch will be where the residual surface boundary falls by late Wednesday, as this could pull better convection risks south of the CWA. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Quite a bit of cloud cover may be in the area for Thursday as cooler northeasterly flow returns and we'll be on the edge of the baroclinic zone to our south. At this point, highs in the 70s are likely, with a gradually increasing rain chance into Friday as mid-lvl flow shifts back to the southwest, mid-lvl vorticity slides through the Central Plains, and the baroclinic zone lifts northward. The highest PoPs will be focused Thursday night into Friday. SATURDAY-MONDAY: A flattened mid-lvl ridge remains over the central CONUS into the upcoming weekend, bringing another risk for rain by Saturday as energy tracks back northward into the Upper Midwest. Confidence is rising that we'll see a dry Sunday and Monday as high pressure arrives, mid-lvl ridging shifts back westward, and quasi- northwest flow moves back in. Temperatures may begin to rise back into the 80s by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Mainly VFR conditions with occasional MVFR to LIFR vsby are expected this TAF period. Looking at satellite imagery, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to progress across portions of northwestern IA. While we could see these storms hang out for the next hour or so, should see most of this activity progress eastwards closer to daybreak leaving behind areas of VFR to MVFR stratus and shallow fog. Conditions should gradually improve by mid-morning as VFR conditions return. Otherwise, lighter surface winds will continue for the majority of the period. Lastly, scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the area tonight. Used PROB30 groups at TAF sites to fine tune timing before going prevailing. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...05 DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...05 ####018005839#### FXUS61 KBTV 121146 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 746 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 309 AM EDT Wednesday... No significant changes were made. Isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected today. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 309 AM EDT Wednesday... 1. Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed in. Chances increase Thursday as a wave moves through with lingering showers Friday. 2. Tranquil weather on Saturday, then beneficial rain likely spreads in from the west Sunday afternoon and exits on Monday. Becoming seasonably warm and dry early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 309 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Maintained yesterday's forecast change of including some showers and very isolated convection today. Best chances of thunderstorms lie in the St Lawrence Valley where the CAPE gradient will be sharpest with around 500J/kg to work with. Otherwise, temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s today and Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday as low pressure moving through southern Canada pushes a boundary through the region. Around 500 J/kg of CAPE is projected to be in the region coincident with the weakening boundary with the strongest forcing towards the Canadian border(CAMs are highlighting potential for a bullseye of 1000+J/kg at max heating which may strafe our northern zones in Vermont - lower likelihood, but potentially impactful scenario where a couple stronger storms would be possible). Another trough is anticipated to move through Friday in broad northwest flow. Showers are mostly expected, but could see a few rumbles in southern Vermont where timing will play a roll in convective chances. Should the trough slow, surface instability will likely build enough for more showers and storms, but current timing of this wave supports mainly showers as the wave exists early afternoon. Some breezy conditions should be anticipated with this trough, especially on Lake Champlain and the peaks where gusts could approach or exceed 30 mph. Gusts 15 to 25 mph are probable at lower elevations away from Lake Champlain. KEY MESSAGE 2: A mid-level ridge over the southeastern US will build northward a bit on Saturday, leaving us in northwesterly flow with dry air and no precipitation chances. This ridge will breakdown on Sunday, allowing a weak wave of low pressure originating in the foothills of the Colorado Rockies to zip eastward and bring us some overrunning/warm frontal type of rain. There is a slight chance of thunder indicated at this time Sunday night in much of Vermont, which would only be a factor if the low pressure system trended stronger and/or tracked farther north, such that our region got into the system's warm sector. Otherwise, a steady soaking rain looks favored, with current consensus timing from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Probabilities of event total rainfall exceeding 0.5" currently ranges from about 20% to 40%, tapering off generally towards the north. among the latest global ensemble scenarios, some solutions are a little slower to bring rain to an end on Monday with higher probabilities of rain into Monday evening than what the current forecast suggests. Given the uncertainties, the 10-30% chance of showers Monday afternoon looks reasonable at this time; some of this precipitation could be orographic, post-frontal showers. Following this system it appears a ridge of high pressure may build in, which would provide us with generally quiet weather for Tuesday. There are weak signals for perhaps a terrain-driven shower in the Adirondacks or off of a lake breeze interface, which would make sense given a typical summertime heating scenario with lack of other forcing mechanisms for precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Dense fog at SLK will dissipate within the next hour leaving VFR conditions at all terminals through at least 18Z. Clusters of showers with a couple of thunderstorms are expected to develop in southern Canada this afternoon or early evening and move southeastward across portions of northern New York and Vermont. Have only used prevailing showers/MVFR conditions at MSS where stronger consensus of a direct hit exists, in which brief IFR conditions would also occur. Other sites fit more in the chance category for showers and PROB30s were used. Additional showers after 00Z are expected but beyond the timeframe to indicate in the TAF. Aside from a thunderstorm or stronger shower winds will remain light; during the daytime, generally expect west/northwest winds, except terrain driven in the Champlain Valley (SE at PBG, N-NW at BTV). With these light winds, nocturnal fog redevelopment at SLK is anticipated but could be affected by coverage and timing of these showers lingering into the overnight hours. Evening precipitation would also aid in fog formation at MSS, and perhaps other sites that are less likely to see appreciable rain such as RUT, MPV, and EFK. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Boyd DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Boyd AVIATION...Kutikoff ####018006333#### FXUS66 KOTX 121146 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 446 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region. - Elevated fire conditions continue through the first part of the week with potential breezy winds for portions of central Washington. - Red Flag Warning has been issued for scattered showers and thunderstorm chances Wednesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region over the next few days, especially in the vicinity of and downwind of regional wildfires. Periods of breezy westerly winds and some slightly cooler temperatures continue Wednesday. A trough skirting by to the north may bring some precipitation chances to northern portions of the area Wednesday into Thursday. Dry and seasonable weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Thursday: The region will be under a deepening upper level trough. A weak area of low pressure will settle over northern WA, along the Canadian border, and bring increased precipitable water and instability. Precipitable water amount will be near an inch. Cape values will range from 200-500 J/kg for areas north of Highway 2 in WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Ensembles have thunderstorm chances starting around 11 AM and lasting into the evening. Best chances are north of the Highway 2 corridor with probabilities of 20-40%. Th rest of the region has less than 20%. Main concerns with the storms will be new fire starts and gusty 35+ mph outflow winds impacting ongoing and new fires. Brief periods of heavy rain could bring localized debris flows over burn scars. Best potential is the North Cascades with 0.2-0.5 of an inch. Confidence is low on cells moving over these areas. Winds will increase from the north later Wednesday down the Okanogan Valley to western Basin, creating a more generic elevated fire weather conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will calm overnight but return again late Thursday morning. Probability is weaker on Thursday with 15-30%. Friday through Wednesday: Friday will have some lingering mountain showers as the trough is pushed out of the region by a strengthening ridge. The region will be on the up slope side of the ridge, allowing for warmer, less dry air to infiltrate the region. Unfortunately, the pattern is not bringing widespread beneficial precip to the region. Models are only giving brief periods of afternoon showers mainly over the higher terrains. The amounts are not expected to be more than a tenth. Highs will continue to be in the upper 80s and 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low 60s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR/MVFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be breezy through the Cascade gaps including at KEAT. A chance for -shra and -tsra develops after 18Z across the northern counties, including places like Winthrop, Omak and Colville. Main TAF sites are not expected to be impacted. Models are showing a gust front passing starting 02Z. It will bring a wind shift out of the north with winds in the teens and gusts into the 20-30 kt range. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Alternate scenario near KGEG/KSFF/KCOE, low confidence risk for t-storms after 22-00Z. Better risk developing after 00Z/13th, but still remaining a low confidence threat. Outflow winds gusting near 20-30kts possible. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 86 54 81 53 84 54 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 85 55 80 52 83 53 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Pullman 83 47 81 46 83 48 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Lewiston 89 60 87 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Colville 83 44 76 42 82 44 / 20 90 50 10 0 0 Sandpoint 81 47 72 45 78 46 / 10 60 50 10 0 0 Kellogg 83 52 78 51 80 52 / 0 10 40 10 30 0 Moses Lake 88 57 85 58 87 57 / 0 20 0 10 0 0 Wenatchee 87 63 85 65 85 64 / 10 50 10 20 10 10 Omak 86 57 83 57 85 57 / 10 50 20 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)- Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington (Zone 700)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Northern Panhandle. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101). Air Quality Alert until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$ ####018006281#### FXUS63 KDMX 121147 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 647 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another chance of severe thunderstorms this morning with damaging wind being the primary threat. Isolated instances of large hail and locally heavy rainfall are also possible. - Hot and humid conditions continue through today with heat indices nearing or just exceeding 100 degrees across southern and portions of central Iowa. - More shower and storm chances tonight and tomorrow, with additional shower and storm chances through the weekend. Locally heavy rain and severe weather is possible, but details will be better assessed with time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Showers and thunderstorms are again expected this morning and severe weather is possible. A cluster of storms in southern South Dakota/northern Nebraska is currently ongoing and moving towards Iowa, with an expected arrival in western Iowa in the early morning hours. As has been the case the past several nights, there is no clear-cut solution with how things will evolve. The devil lies in the details. Mesoanalysis shows a deeply unstable environment across Iowa with a strong CAPE gradient farther to the west. This cluster is expected to ride the CAPE gradient to the southeast, though it has to fight mid-level convective inhibition. RAP analysis shows the Low Level Jet (LLJ) is just now beginning to nose into Iowa. Deterministic models show the jet strengthening around 7am/12z this morning. As it does this, the cluster would be energized and begin to build towards the northeast into central Iowa. Another part of the uncertainty comes from a lack of moisture return. Moisture transport shows some signal in the mid-levels, and mesoanalysis hints at better moisture transport with the still-strengthening LLJ. Another solution that would bring storms even farther north is if storms are enhanced by shortwave energy ahead of the main cluster. If everything materializes, there is a decent signal for a damaging wind threat with this cluster as it moves through Iowa. Compared to previous nights, confidence is much higher in the evolution of storms. Once storms clear the area, which should be around mid to late morning, with the potential to be as late as 1pm/18z, hot and humid conditions are expected with heat indices again approaching the 100 degree mark. There is more uncertainty in terms of heat than in previous days, as storms are progged to track farther south than in previous nights over the area forecast to be warmest, which could lessen heat indices. Once again, atmospheric recovery is expected through the day today, though capping is still going to be in place to inhibit storms during the daytime hours. Otherwise, storm chances once again return tonight driven by a shortwave that will move over the area. Confidence with storms tonight looks much higher than previous nights have been given a more pronounced shortwave. Severe wind gusts are not out of the question with this setup, however the signal for heavy and excessive rainfall looks the greatest with decent moisture return and PWATs over 2 across the area. There is still some disagreement with the specific location of where the heaviest rain will fall. At the very least, flash flooding would be a concern over any cities/towns. Thursday looks to bring cooler temperatures to much of the state, save for far southern Iowa. with temperatures in the upper 80s across the south, and upper 70s to low 80s across north and central Iowa. It may not be as dry, however, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms through the day for at least some part of the state along a boundary that looks to set up across central Iowa. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Active weather persists into Thursday night as another shortwave traverse into the Plains, The SPC currently highlights the southern CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Thursday. The active pattern remains in place through Saturday, maintaining low-end severe storm probabilities. A more robust cold front will finally sweep through the region on Sunday, bringing a cooler and drier airmass. Highs look to top out in the upper 70s in northern Iowa to lower 80s in southern Iowa. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Main aviation focus is on the showers and storms ongoing and expected to move through most of the area this morning. Convective evolution has not followed previous expectations particularly well and CAMs are still a bit varied on their evolution from here, though many are not capturing current trends well either. This being said, timing in current TAFs may still need further adjustments as KOTM is seeing the new storm development out ahead of the main line, and other sites will eventually see the main line come through, though the extent and severity of which remains to be seen. Generally expecting some amount of thunderstorms to affect KFOD and KDSM and probably KALO with time if storms can hold together with additional new development also possible in that area. KMCW remains further north and will likely only see a shower or two if anything unless things trend more north. Storms could have gusty and erratic winds associated with them, and should they become more organized again, these winds could become severe. Storms clear the area by mid morning to midday with dry conditions behind through the rest of the daytime. There are more widespread storm chances again overnight into Thursday morning but will be addressed in future issuances. Behind the storms, winds will largely be out of the east and light under 10-12 knots. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...TDR AVIATION...05 ####018004385#### FXUS63 KPAH 121147 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 647 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Headline heat with temperatures in the 95-100 degree range and heat index values in the 105-110 range will continue thru the upcoming weekend. Additional and/or extended heat headlines are likely. - Shower and thunderstorm potential (30-60% chance) will increase across the northeast half of the area this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds and localized flooding as the main threats. - Slightly cooler temperatures are in the forecast toward the middle of next week. Temperatures are forecast to pull back into the upper 80s to low 90s with small chances for rain (20-30%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Upper-level ridging is expected to remain in place the rest of the week and actually strengthen a bit toward the weekend. A somewhat troughed pattern is just off to the east of the area, which will allow northwest flow aloft to direct several rounds of thunderstorms (MCS) through or near the area. The best chance of this happening will be this afternoon into this evening. The best early look at timing will be between roughly 4pm and 10pm; however, timing and placement will depend largely when/where the complex starts up. The latest trends would suggest the complex would already be starting around 7am this morning over eastern/southeastern IA. The storms are likely to be displaced to the southwest of Tuesday's convection with the more extreme heat and humidity available to the southwest of the outflow/boundary layed out by the storms. Instability will be in the 3000-4000 J/kg range ahead of the complex with MCS associated shear around 30kts. DCAPE is progged to be around 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the complex again lending significant support to a damaging wind type of an event as cold pools develop and race through the area. 60- 70 mph winds are not out of the question where the complex pass through the area. The SPC has shifted the slight risk a bit farther to the southwest from earlier outlooks and is highlighting the wind potential. PWATs on the order of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will lead to very heavy downpours and localized flooding, especially where training occurs this afternoon and evening. The ridge is expected to intensify across the area for the end of the week into the weekend, which will allow temperatures to climb along with the humidity. The current heat headlines were extended with this update; however, it is very possible that they may need to be upgraded to and Extreme Heat Warning within the next day or two as heat index values will likely remain near or above 105 through the weekend. Today's convection may help to pull back on the temps, but that is largely dependent upon the arrival time of the storms. Current thinking it will be late enough that all locations will still be hot! A frontal boundary is progged to sag southward into the area for Monday, which may briefly bring slightly cooler temperatures (upper 80s to low 90s) for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. At this point, an break in the heat would be great!! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 The main concern with this forecast issuance is the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. The greatest threat will be at MVN/EVV/OWB, with a lesser threat farther south. Overall confidence in timing and placement of any storms remains fairly low, so kept the Prob30 group with this issuance. After that round of storms pass, not much precipitation is expected through the night into Thursday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-081>094. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ080. MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082- 085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...KC