####018007154#### FXUS61 KOKX 261820 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 220 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure remains over the region into Saturday, moving off shore as a warm front approaches. The warm front moves through the region late Saturday into early Sunday morning. A weakening cold front passes to the north Sunday as high pressure builds to the south. A cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across the region Tuesday night. A series of frontal systems may pass through the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Northern stream upper trough over eastern Canada into the northeast moves slowly eastward through today as a building ridge approaches to the west. Meanwhile strong high pressure remains over the area. While the airmass is modifying, high temperatures will still be around 5 degrees below normal. Temps topping out in the mid to upper 50s along the coast in the wake of hybrid synoptic/seabreeze S/SE flow, to the lower 60s across the interior. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The building upper ridge approaches tonight with the axis moving into the region Saturday. With an Omega blocking pattern setting up the ridge will remain in the area through Sunday. With surface high pressure over the region tonight winds become light. However, the airmass continues to modify with weak warm advection that begins late today continuing into tonight. Some high cloudiness will also be moving into the ridge. Temperatures tonight remain above freezing, however, patchy to areas of frost are possible. Frost advisories may be issued later today for areas where more widespread frost is expected. A surface and upper low pass well to the west as the upper ridge remains Saturday as a surface warm front moves through the region late in the day and into Sunday morning. There will be some weak lift with the front, and limited moisture. There may be scattered showers with the frontal passage, and will have chance probabilities. Then later Sunday a cold front moves to the north and weakens with the ridge in place. Will keep Sunday dry at this time, however, a few showers may develop across the far north regions late in the day with some instability in the area. With the airmass continuing to modify temperatures will be near normal Saturday night and near to a few degrees above Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... *Key Points* *Mainly dry conditions expected with a few chances of showers each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday. *Confidence is increasing in a warming trend with above normal temperatures likely through late next week. The warmest day of the period looks to be on Monday. There has not been much change to the forecast thinking with this update and have stuck close to the NBM with a few exceptions on the temperatures. Decent model agreement to start the period with an amplifying ridge and anomalously warm air mass (2-3 stdev above normal per NAEFS) in place and surface high pressure to the south. Dry conditions locally as a result, and with 850mb temperatures approaching 13-14C, low to mid 80s are a good bet for the interior on Monday. In fact, NBM probabilities of >80F have been on the increase the past few cycles, and are now as high as 80% from NYC north and west. Onshore flow will keep the coastal areas a good 10 degrees cooler, with SSTs still in the upper 40s to near 50. Record highs across the area are in the upper 80s and lower 90s (Central Park is 89F, from 1974) so we look to be below any records at this point. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper flow begins to flatten as the ridge axis moves east of the region. Clouds will be on the increase for Tuesday, which may help moderate temperates a bit as a weak front heads through the area. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm especially N/W of NYC for Tuesday afternoon, with some very marginal surface based instability. This trend continues for Wednesday and possibly on Thursday, as an upper low traversing the Great Lakes region sends upper energy through the northeast. Some elevated instability with a weak frontal passage on Wednesday. Shower chances continue in the afternoon, but have kept thunder mention out of the forecast for now. For late in the week, there is model agreement on an upper low ejecting out of the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday. This will keep the shower chances going Thursday afternoon into Friday, though have capped chances at slight for now. Under weak westerly flow, there is significant spread the high temperatures for Thursday. For instance, NBM interquartile range spreads from 72 to 86F for KEWR and 70 to 83 for KSWF with the deterministic forecast near the 50th percentile. For this update, have trended toward the NBM 75th percentile for highs on Thursday, given the usual NBM cool bias under westerly flow this time of year for NE NJ. If cloud cover progression can hold off until later on Thursday, the upper end of the NBM spread may be realized. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. High pressure remains near the terminals through tonight. A warm front approaches the region on Saturday. Southerly flow, near 10 kt, into this evening. Winds lighten tonight and may go more SSW or even light and vrb overnight. Southerly flow persists on Saturday, with speeds increasing into the low teens by the afternoon. Lowering cigs by late day as a warm front begins to approach and light rain is possible after 20Z at city terminals and KSWF. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Light rain possible late Sat afternoon and early evening. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday PM and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower Sat evening and night. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Wednesday: VFR. Winds under 10 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... With high pressure in control into Saturday, and a warm front approaching late Saturday into early Sunday morning, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters. Warmer air moving over the colder ocean early next week could develop fog, but it is much too early for any specific details on timing and extent. Sub SCA conditions on all waters through Tuesday under relatively weak flow. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DBR/MET NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...DBR AVIATION...DR MARINE...DBR/MET HYDROLOGY...DBR/MET ####018003464#### FXUS64 KHUN 261820 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A nice but breezy afternoon is underway across the Tennessee Valley for late April. S/SE winds will gust up to 25-30kts at times today, but little in the way of convection is expected. Very low/silent PoPs (AOB 10%) are included for any residual moisture as it moves to the NE in response to lingering lift associated with a decaying MCS well to our N/W. Afternoon highs are currently in the upper 70s to lower 80s at this hour, with another degree or two higher possible in a few spots. Otherwise, clouds will gradually increase this evening and tonight as WAA continues, but the forecast should remain dry. Morning lows to start the day Saturday will remain about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, bottoming out in the middle/upper 60s (compared to normal lows in the lower/middle 50s for late April). Higher dewpoints will keep relatively humid conditions in place tonight as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A near rinse-and-repeat forecast is expected for this last weekend of April. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will persist through the weekend, with gusty S/SE winds continuing during this time as well. For now, we remain below Wind Advisory Criteria, but those out and about enjoying any outdoor festivals this weekend should tie down tents to keep them from from flying/collapsing. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, topping out in the lower/middle 80s along and W of I-65, and topping out in the upper 70s in NE AL/Srn Middle TN. Lows will again fall into the middle/upper 60s for much of the area (with portions of NE AL/Srn Middle TN dipping into the middle/upper 50s). Relatively humid conditions will linger through this time as well, continuing into the new work week. Though our weekend remains dry, our next chance of rain arrives Monday and especially Monday evening/night as an upper level system traverses the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms will increase during this time (30-70%) ahead of the approaching cold front, with lingering showers expected into midday Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Removed mention of the Monday portion of the forecast since it's included above, but no changes were made to the Long Term Discussion otherwise. The remainder of the forecast looks fairly unsettled as several weak impulses interact with the warm airmass, leading to a 20-30% chance for showers/storms each day. The good news is that the overall pattern does not show cause for concern as we make our way through the end of April and say hello to May. Daily high temps will be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. South to southeast winds will gust over 20kt at times, especially during the daylight hours. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...12 SHORT TERM....12 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...17 ####018005783#### FXUS64 KSHV 261821 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 121 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The weather story and hazard outlooks remain largely unchanged from recent forecasts as of this writing. As a series of upper level lows eject east from the Intermountain West and veer along a northeasterly track up the Great Plains and towards the Great Lakes, this persistent unsettled pattern will result in several days worth of showers and storms bringing rainfall to much of the ArkLaTex, and some chances of severe weather, particularly to our northwestern half. Showers have already begun to move into our southeastern Oklahoma zones as of the 08Z hour, and will increase in coverage and intensity while gradually trekking south and east after daybreak today. Showers and storms will impact all but the southeasternmost reaches of the ArkLaTex through this afternoon, receding in coverage back to the north of the I-30 corridor overnight into Saturday. The severe weather outlook today remains much the same as previous iterations, with a Slight Risk covering our northwestern zones from Tyler up to Texarkana and along I-30, extending just far enough south to clip the northwestern corner of Louisiana. The chief modes of severe weather expected will be damaging wind and especially large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out entirely. Simultaneously, these same zones are included in a slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, particularly in areas of training torrential rainfall. 1-2 inches of accumulation today look easily possible, particularly north of I-30. Today's highs will range from the middle 70s northwest to middle 80s southeast, followed by a night of lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and a warmer Saturday as more sites reach the mid to upper 80s. Saturday continues to look like the "in-between" day of this stretch, where we will not see a defined line of storms associated with one of the aforementioned lows move into the region. Nevertheless, conditions will remain ripe for renewed showers and storms across the northern half of the Four State Region through the course of the day, accompanied by a Marginal Risk for severe weather and a sliver of Slight Risk on our northwestern corner, accompanied by a similar distribution of ERO risks. All modes of severe weather will again be possible, but at reduced confidence compared to Friday and Sunday. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, the second of the upper level lows will begin to make its northeastward journey up the Plains, swinging its frontal boundary and attendant convection into the ArkLaTex. There is little in the way of a defined break between Saturday's showers and storms and Sunday's convection, thus it remains to be seen how worked over the environment may be ahead of the arrival of Sunday's storms. That being said, the outlook continues to highlight a sizable swath encompassing the northwestern two-thirds of the region in a Slight Risk for Sunday into Sunday night. All modes of severe weather are being considered likely, with emphasis once again on damaging winds and large hail. The third straight day of severe weather impacts will indeed also be the third straight day of flash flooding impacts. By the time all is said and done, storm total accumulations look to range from 1-2 inches in north central Louisiana to as high as 4+ inches in extreme southeast Oklahoma. Given the recent substantial flooding event across the region, and with many area waterways still quite full, a return to flood stages cloud be quickly achieved, and this potential hazard necessitates as much vigilance as the severe threat. After the upper level low departs and synoptic flow becomes more zonal, conditions will remain unsettled into next week, as southerly flow funnels continued moisture and showers and storms remain possible through the end of this extended forecast period. Temperatures will be mitigated somewhat by the ongoing rainfall but will remain warm in the low to mid 80s throughout, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 For 26/18z TAFS...VFR conditions have finally moved into all TAF sites. However, mostly cloudy skies remain across the region. Also, convection has started developing across the area, north of a line from Tyler Texas to Texarkana. Look for convection to develop into a line and move southeastward across the region this afternoon into the early evening hours. This will produced widespread reduced flight categories. After Midnight, look for low clouds to develop and move into the sites. Outside of KELD/KMLU, expect VFR conditions to return by the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 72 88 71 / 30 30 10 10 MLU 85 69 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 DEQ 76 65 81 65 / 80 40 60 40 TXK 81 70 85 69 / 50 40 40 20 ELD 83 66 86 66 / 30 30 20 10 TYR 80 70 85 70 / 70 30 20 30 GGG 82 70 86 70 / 50 30 20 20 LFK 84 70 87 70 / 30 20 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...20 ####018005607#### FXUS61 KAKQ 261822 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered over New England today. High pressure slides off the New England coast tonight, moving south into early next week, with a ridge building over the area and temperatures well above normal through next week. An unsettled pattern sets up from Tuesday through late next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM EDT Friday... Late this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over New England. The sky ranged from sunny in the ern/SE counties, to partly sunny to mostly cloudy in the Piedmont. Temps were ranging through the 50s. Expect a generally partly to mostly sunny sky across the region this aftn, with highs in the mid 60s inland, upper 60s SW, and upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast. Otherwise, dry this aftn with increasing clouds tonight and a slight chance of a brief, light shower across far NW portions of the FA late tonight. Lows tonight will range through the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... A ridge builds over the area Sat, building into early next week with a warmup expected. However, the warm air will be delayed until Sun due to high pressure lingering off the New England coast on Sat allowing for one more day of cool, onshore flow. A weak piece of shortwave energy moves towards the area Sat and may provide just enough forcing (combined with isentropic ascent over the cooler airmass in place) for isolated, light showers across N portions of the FA. Models continue to be in disagreement with global models showing more coverage than hi-res models. As such, have kept PoPs at slight chance. Any showers taper off Sat evening with dry weather Sun as the high moves S and winds become SW. Highs in the lower 60s NE to around 70F SW Sat and upper 70s to lower 80s Sun. Lows in the lower 50s (upper 40s across the MD Eastern Shore) Sat night and upper 50s to around 60F Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Friday... The ridge builds over the area early next week, becoming less amplified by midweek, but lingering through the week regardless with well above normal temps expected. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Mon-Thu for most. The warmest days look to be Mon and Tue with highs potentially approaching 90F for some. Next week will not only "feel" Summer-like due to warm temperatures but also in the sense that an unsettled pattern develops from Tue-Fri with daily chances for showers/storms. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time, however, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. As such, have maintained a slight chance to chance PoP each afternoon/evening for showers/storms from mid-late week with the greatest chance on Fri (30-35% PoPs) as a cold front approaches from the W. Highs also look to be a touch cooler on Fri (upper 70s to lower 80s). Lows remain mild through the week in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday... Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this aftn into Sat aftn. Winds will be E or SE 5-15 kt through the period with some gusts up to 20 kt into this evening. An isolated shower could occur at RIC and SBY Sat aftn into early Sat evening, due to a weak warm front. Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals from Sat night through at least Mon. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, high pressure remains centered over New England. Winds are generally out of NE and range from 10 to 15 knots over the Chesapeake Bay/rivers and 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters. Winds will continue at similar speeds for much of the day today, before gradually diminishing later this evening into tonight. High pressure remains over the Northeast US or just offshore today through Saturday which will lead to continued onshore flow. As a result, seas remain elevated around or in excess of 5 feet today into tonight, before a gradual diminishing trend on Saturday. SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters (and mouth of the bay) through late this evening. High pressure builds into the area this weekend before becoming suppressed to the south next week. Winds become southerly late Saturday night into Sunday, and then S to SW later Sunday into the middle of the week, generally ranging around 10 to 15 knots. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck County, and Dorchester County early this morning. As such, Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for these locations. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650- 652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...RMM/TMG SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJB/AM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ ####018006509#### FXUS63 KJKL 261825 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance of an isolated rain shower this afternoon. Otherwise, plenty of dry time expected. - Becoming very warm this weekend into at least the middle of next week. - Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday night and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 224 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024 Showers have continued to develop and persist into the southern portion of the forecast area. Have raised the afternoon POP to likely over the TN border counties. UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024 Based on trends, have increased cloud cover more quickly to greater levels than was previously forecast. Light rain and showers have skirted our southern border this morning. The activity extends northwestward through south central and western KY. It is making slow progress to the northeast, and only minor changes have been made regarding timing, with our POP remaining at 20% today. Have trimmed back previously forecast max temps for today slightly due to expected clouds and current rate of temperature rise. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 429 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024 High pressure over the Northeast US is retreating in response to a low emerging from the Lee of the Rockies. This low has a warm front draped across the southeast US. The associated warm front is already spreading plenty of high clouds through our area, and this will generally be the case through the day. There is a very low chance of isolated showers this afternoon. Very dry air in the low-levels (dew point depressions of 20 degrees, even at this hour) will be hard to overcome with forcing disjointed well to our northwest. Nonetheless, for consistency, have maintained the low shower chance. Ridging aloft amplifies Friday night through Saturday, marking the start of a very warm stretch of weather. As a result, certainly no frost concerns Friday night. The ridge axis overhead Friday night would suggest a chance for some fog, but southerly flow of 10mph or so will likely preclude this along with large dew point depressions. Highs on Saturday will crack 80 degrees for most. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 448 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024 The period will start off Sunday in an amplified high pressure set- up across the Ohio Valley, as a strong upper level low in the Central Plains continues to push NNE. This will lead to enhanced SW flow into Kentucky, resulting in well above normal temperatures. Thankfully, this upper level low and associated surface low pressure system will not push far enough eastward to impact Kentucky through the day Sunday, leaving us with warm but dry weather and mostly clear skies. This set-up will persist into Monday morning as well, but things start to transition by the afternoon. The upper level low will be located in western Ontario by Monday afternoon, and weakening substantially. A cold front will expand southward from the low pressure system, and finally have moved far enough eastward to begin slowly traversing Kentucky from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. By this point, we will be quite a ways away from the weakening parent low. So while widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely along the boundary, it starts to lose structure by the time it gets to eastern Kentucky. Not sure how strong of a system this will be as a result. Soundings don't really show a good structure for thunderstorms, much less severe. Also, we aren't really transitioning to a colder airmass behind this frontal boundary. The amplified ridge will continue to shift eastward, with flow becoming more zonal behind, rather than a troughing pattern. Therefore, there won't be much of a clashing of cold and warm airmasses. For instance, pre-frontal temperatures on Monday will be in the mid and upper 80s. However, post-frontal temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will still be in the low 80s. Other than the fact that there will be zonal flow behind the departing system (which should continue the above normal temperatures), models really start to diverge in their solutions from this point going forward. There was hope that over the last 24 hours models would start to come into better agreement for Wednesday and Thursday, but it's actually quite the opposite. For instance, the GFS shows a secondary upper level low and surface based system moving into Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday with another round of widespread precip. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is more unorganized with this system, keeping eastern KY dry through a large chunk of this period. They both show potential for yet a third system developing to our west Wednesday night into Thursday, but again with little agreement on the strength and footprint of precip/convection. Given the disagreements, the NBM went with isolated to scattered convection from Wednesday onwards, and much like yesterday morning, don't have the confidence in any of the models to change this. More than likely there will be dry periods and potentially likely to widespread precip periods, but without the models being in better agreement, scattered/chance pops will suffice. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period, but isolated to scattered showers and low end VFR ceilings will affect the region for a time. A band of showers and ceilings around 5K ft AGL is currently entering the area from the southwest around KEKQ. The band will continue to make its way slowly northeast across the region today. It will exit to the northeast into WV early this evening. During the night, low level flow will increase, particularly just off the surface. This raises concerns for low level wind shear overnight into Saturday morning, mainly in the western portion of the forecast area from around KLOZ to KSYM, and points westward. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...BROWN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...HAL