####018006286#### FXUS61 KRLX 102131 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 431 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front this evening. Gusty winds and upslope snow tonight, with blizzard conditions in high terrain. Clipper Thursday night into Friday with mainly snow. More snow late Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 410 PM Wednesday... Surface cold front is currently progressing through the western CWA, located just east of the Ohio River. The front will quickly shift through the area over the next couple of hours, with a secondary boundary further northwest across the northern Ohio Valley pivoting across the area through early tonight. Given such, temperatures will continue to slowly fall, with a gradual transition from rain to snow area-wide by late evening into the early overnight. Winds will remain breezy to gusty with CAA, but could be perhaps strongest along the boundaries as they pivot through given some fairly stout showers on radar currently in association with them. Hazardous conditions will continue across the mountains given all snow (4-8"+) and high winds, resulting in blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Lighter accumulations (1-4") are expected overnight across the rest of the higher terrain, along with breezy to gusty winds. A light coating of snow could even occur across some locations in the lowlands given any brief, but heavier snow showers overnight courtesy of lake moisture as mean flow quickly veers following the passage of the second boundary. This combined with falling temperatures could lead to slick conditions for the Thursday morning commute in some areas. Made minor adjustments to temperatures, wind gusts, and PoPs through the evening, with the rest of the forecast on track. As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A cold front will move across the area on today. Some rain can be expected in advance of the front for most areas, while higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains will see snow. With the strong winds and snow, will keep the Blizzard Warning for the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. There could be a break from blizzard conditions this afternoon. Colder air behind the cold front will cause an upslope snow event from late today into Thursday. This will cause the blizzard conditions to set back in for the higher elevations of the West Virgina northern mountains. These conditions should continue into Thursday morning, when the upslope snow begins to taper off. The Thursday morning commute could be slick on untreated roads for much of the region, especially in and just west of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1240 PM Wednesday... A strong clipper will effect the area Thursday night into Friday, providing wintry weather. Currently thinking 2 to 4 inches across most of the area. With cold air over the area Wednesday night and Thursday in advance of this system, expect the snow to stick quickly to roads. This system has the potential to create a messy commute for Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... Yet another system can be expected for late Saturday into Sunday. This system should be mainly snow, but could be centered further north, with the main 2 to 4 inch axis from Parkersburg to Clarksburg. Much colder air will move in behind this system, providing upslope snow. Temperatures on Sunday should stay well below freezing. The cold temperatures combined with the wind should create wind chills below -10 F in the higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for Sunday and Sunday night in that area. A high pressure system will then build across the area for Monday and Tuesday providing dry weather. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 PM Wednesday... A cold front will move across the area today. This will bring lowering ceilings with rain showers over most of the area and snow and high winds over the highest elevations of the West Virginia mountains. Behind the front tonight, rain will turn to snow area wide with upslope snow continuing over the mountains. Expect IFR or LIFR conditions in and just west of the mountains tonight, ranging to MVFR over northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio. Snow will begin to taper off Thursday morning, with conditions slowly improving. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating conditions could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible areawide Thursday night into Friday, and again late Saturday into Sunday with snow. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ034- 515>521-525. Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/GW NEAR TERM...RPY/GW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...RPY ####018003816#### FXUS65 KGJT 102132 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 232 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Any remaining snowfall occurring over the northern mountains will come to an end by early this evening. - High pressure will build in and persist through the weekend at least. Daytime high temperatures will continue to remain well above seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 142 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 High clouds are streaming in from the northwest at the moment and despite the models insistence over the last few days, snowfall just hasn't materialized as expected. A few SNOTELs did receive 6...maybe 8 inches of snow...but by and large, only a few inches of new snow were noted across the entire zone. A far cry from what was originally anticipated even with favorable orographics. Looks like flow was just a bit too northerly for the best orographic lift along with the strongest support staying to our north. Speaking of, for the remainder of the day, the jet stream will shift to our north and east so any support we may have received will be ending. As this occurs, some small height rises indicate high pressure to our southwest continuing to build in keeping a dry forecast in place. Overnight, high clouds should temper lows for the northern valleys and mountains while mostly clear skies elsewhere will keep temps cold. Did bump temps down several degrees for the Gunnison River Valley and the usual cold spots for the San Juans. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will be the rule with more clouds noted along the WY/CO border. Highs will continue their warm spell with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 142 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Broad ridging builds over the western CONUS through the weekend and into early next week. This brings with it a persistent dry pattern and high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal across the CWA. Models are in steady agreement with a transient shortwave arriving on Monday, but this low won't be storing any promising moisture. This means our next real potential for precipitation doesn't arrive until Tuesday at the earliest as upper-level flow becomes zonal. Ensembles agree that another stream of Pacific moisture will begin penetrating the Intermountain West through this zonal flow. Even so, the bulk of the moisture looks to get held up on the Sierra Nevada mountains, and as a result, current model forecasts aren't giving us favorable odds of feeling much of the effects of this moisture plume. Ensemble PWAT's are only peaking at 150-175% of normal during this stretch, so optimism for much rain and/or snow to fall here is fairly low. Guidance on this mid-week storm has plenty of time to deviate though, so we wouldn't write this system off just yet. Stay tuned over the coming days as we get a better handle on the specifics with this potential stretch of active weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1021 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Low cigs are reaching ILS breakpoints at KEGE late this morning, but cloud cover is expected to clear throughout the afternoon. This should relieve any concern of cigs below ILS breakpoints and keep all terminals at VFR conditions throughout the next 24 hours. Light snowfall may occur over the northern Colorado mountains over the next few hours, but no terminals are expected to be impacted. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...TGJT ####018003697#### FXUS63 KLBF 102132 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 332 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another warm up is expected Thursday. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected for areas mainly west of Highway 183. - Much colder, especially across northern Nebraska this weekend. Some light snow is also possible. - Warning again next week as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Surface high pressure has quickly built into the area today. Colder air has filtered in behind the front as a modified Canadian airmass briefly crosses the area. Overnight, tonight, the surface ridge axis will shift eastward across Minnesota and Iowa. Meanwhile, a leeward surface trough will sharpen across central SD and Nebraska. An area of mid-level FGEN is in the process of developing across western NE this afternoon, and will shift eastward/northeastward as WAA aloft intensifies. The mid and upper levels will continue to saturate, and expect a bit of light precipitation to eventually make it to the surface late this afternoon into tonight. Any precipitation should start as light snow, then as warmer air aloft moves in expect a brief change to light freezing rain before ending after sunrise Thursday. This threat is mostly nearer the SD border as drier air in the lower levels farther to the south will limit precipitation making it to the surface. Warmer temperatures return Thursday as the leeward surface trough shifts eastward across the area. Highs well into the 60s are expected west of the surface trough (for areas roughly west of Highway 183). Elevated fire weather concerns will increase as gusty west winds combine with lower humidity and the warm temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Northwest flow aloft continues into the weekend. Strong arctic high pressure will settle southward into the Dakotas with a strong cold front surging southward through the area Friday. A reinforcing cold front then backs in from the northeast Saturday. This will keep portions of north central Nebraska in the teens for highs Saturday. A slow moderation in temperatures is then expected Sunday into Monday. Will have to closely monitor the Friday night into Saturday morning period across northern Nebraska. A strong area of mid-level FGEN will be in place north of the cold front. Snow will be likely where within this area. Ensemble means have trended a bit southward with the accumulating snow - but not as far south as some of the operational runs. Again will monitor, as accumulating snow could occur nearer the SD border. Otherwise it will be very cold Saturday across northern Nebraska, with highs barely reaching above 10F near the SD border in Boyd Co. Meanwhile mid 40s are expected across far southwest Nebraska. A warming trend is expected next week as ridging develops across the Rockies into the plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Mid and high level cloudiness will stream across the area this afternoon and tonight. VFR conditions are expected all areas. A few very light showers will be possible tonight but should not impact aviation operations. Winds will generally be light. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Taylor ####018004713#### FXUS65 KPUB 102134 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 234 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and much warmer along/east of the mountains Thursday. - Dry conditions are expected for much of the region through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 211 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Windy again this afternoon over the central mountains with a few gusts to 50 kts over the higher passes from Monarch Pass northward. On the plains, cooler temps with less wind at many locations, though gap flow still blowing at Walsenburg (gusting to 35 kts), and some gusts 20-25 kts over the far southeast plains. Winds will diminish tonight over the higher terrain, though some gusty east slope breezes are possible through the night, as lee surface trough remains along I-25. While a few mountains/interior valleys will decouple and drop off into the teens/20s, winds will keep mins along and east of I-25 milder, mainly 30s/40s. On Thursday, deep mixing under continued northwest flow aloft will boost maxes well above seasonal averages, especially along and east of I-25, where 60s and 70s will be widespread, and even a near 80 degf possible over the far southeast around Springfield. Records for the 11th are fairly warm (79f at KPUB, 72f KCOS), and should be just out of reach as mid-level temps may be not be quite high enough. Mountains/interior valleys will see less warming than the plains, though still a 3-7 degf rise is likely as upper ridge builds slightly and mid level temps warm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday: For Thursday, quiet weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow will remain in place over the region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are expected. Otherwise, some breezy conditions are anticipated areawide with gusts around 20 mph, with pockets of mid to high level clouds streaming over the region. As for temperatures, a warm December day is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado, with much of the region warming to well above seasonal values due to downsloping winds. Given that, that plains will warm into the mid 60s to low 70s, the valleys into the upper 40s to 50s, and the mountains into the 30s and 40s. Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, quiet weather continues, even despite a brief pattern change. Thursday night through Sunday, northwesterly flow is expected to persist. Then for Monday and Tuesday, a brief pattern change is expected as a weak wave pushes over the area. Confidence in this pattern evolution remains high to very high (80-90%) given continued strong agreement from model guidance. With all that said, dry conditions will continue to prevail for most given the lack of major forcing, even with the wave passage. The exception to this may be along the central mountains Monday - Tuesday, where orographic forcing will become strong enough to allow for isolated snow showers to blossom. Beyond all of that, breezy conditions will persist, especially along the higher terrain, with mid to high level clouds also continuing. Looking at temperatures, a fluctuating stretch of days is anticipated for the plains through Sunday thanks to a couple of shallow cold fronts. With that said, the plains will remain above seasonal values, event despite the cold fronts. Elsewhere, temperatures are anticipated to remain more steady and above seasonal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 At KCOS, patch of IFR stratus slowly shrinking on satellite loop as of 1730z, with most forecast soundings showing a gradual weakening of sly low level winds and modest drying by mid- afternoon. Will keep tempo IFR in the forecast through 19z, then slow improvement to MVFR 19z-21z, before clouds break and VFR returns after 21z. Increasing n-nw winds overnight and continued low level drying will keep conditions VFR from late afternoon through the night into Thu morning. At KPUB and KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Mainly light winds at KALS, while at KPUB, e-se upslope will transition to light wly drainage after 01z, with a low potential for some gusty (20-30 kt) enhanced gap flow w-nw winds after sunrise Thu morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...PETERSEN