####018009291#### FXUS61 KAKQ 240812 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 412 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front pushes through the region today, with some scattered showers expected. Strong high pressure then builds east from the eastern Great Lakes to off the New England coast Thursday through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected for Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers or sprinkles possible with a passing cold front this morning through late afternoon. Latest analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high pressure centered offshore of the southeast coast early this morning. To the northwest, low pressure continues to slide across the Mason- Dixon line early this morning, with a weak cold front just crossing the central Appalachians early this morning. To the north, a stronger low was analyzed crossing SE Quebec, with its cold front extending back into the upper Great Lakes and the mid-Missouri Valley. Aloft, a weakening shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft was noted diving across the Ohio Valley toward the mid-Atlantic region early this morning. Behind this feature, low amplitude shortwave ridging was building east from the Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. Not too much change in the going forecast today and through the remainder of the work week. The first cold front drops across the region this morning, before briefly stalling this afternoon and eventually clearing the area this evening. Little to no instability to speak of with this system and PWs remain unimpressive, owing to flow turning downslope east of the mountains. Thus, expect little more than increasing clouds and some scattered showers with the frontal passage, mainly this morning into early afternoon north, and late morning into late afternoon central and south. PoPs will only be 30-50% (highest north of US-460), with QPF on the order of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Maintained a slight to low-end chance PoP after 22z (6p-8p) for a stray shower or two, but otherwise drying out tonight. Highs in the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s for the immediate coast The second front associated with the upper wave drops through with little fanfare this evening. Clearing late into the overnight hours, as cool 1028+mb surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. There still seems enough mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too much except over the far N/NW zones Wed night. Lows in the low 40s far NW (US-15 corridor), with mid 40s to around 50F elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Temperatures remain near to just below normal through the late week period. - Mainly dry, with patchy frost possible Thursday night. High pressure builds east from the eastern Great Lakes into New England on Thursday, before sliding off the New England coast on Friday. Mostly sunny and cool each day with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s (coolest along the coast Thu due to modest onshore flow). Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from the upr 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost may be possible once again, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore. A bit milder Fri night as the airmass modifies (but remains near to below normal) courtesy of persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday night range through the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Marked warming trend expected for the weekend into early next week. - Rain chances return ahead of and with an approaching cold front by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest, expanding to the east coast over the weekend. As high pressure builds offshore and settles in the western Atlantic Saturday through Tuesday, expect temperatures trend back upward through the period; from near normal Sat (highs in the 70s, except 60s Eastern Shore), to above normal Sun-Mon (low-mid 80s inland, upper 70s to around 80 coast) as the upper ridge remains across the ern CONUS over the weekend into Monday, before finally breaking down by the middle of next week. The next front approaches from the west Mon/Tue next week. Our next chance for showers and isolated storms will be possible with the frontal passage itself by next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday... Mid to high clouds continue to increase early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the 06z TAF period. Winds will generally be SW early this morning with some gusts to ~20 kt, especially at the coastal terminals. Have allowed for some LLWS at RIC/SBY early this morning through around sunrise. Scattered showers are expected ahead of and with the cold frontal passage from around sunrise into mid to late afternoon. Will limit mention to VCSH at ECG with VCSH/-SHRA at all other terminals, with flight categories remaining VFR throughout the period (CIGs lowering to 5-7 kft AGL by late morning/early afternoon). Winds generally become westerly behind the frontal passage this evening. Outlook: Behind the frontal passage, dry and predominately VFR conditions persist for the late week period into the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) SCAs remain in effect for all local waters early today. 2) Another round of SCA conditions is likely tonight into Thursday behind a cold front. SCAs remain in effect until 10 AM this morning for the upper rivers and Currituck Sound, 1 PM for the Lower James and Ches Bay, and 7 PM for the coastal waters (due to lingering seas). Winds early this morning were SW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds gradually diminish to 10-15 kt by this afternoon behind a prefrontal trough and ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front stalls inland this afternoon into this evening before pushing SE across the local waters tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the Great Lakes today, building towards the local area Thu into Fri. Ahead of the front, winds become light (5-10 kt) this evening before becoming N then NE 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt overnight behind the front. Weak low pressure develops along the cold front as it pushes offshore. The pressure gradient between the weak offshore low and the high building in from the N will allow for NE winds to linger through Fri before becoming E Fri night. However, winds should drop below SCA criteria Thu night and linger around 13-17 kt Thu night through Fri night. SCAs will be needed for at least the initial portion of the surge tonight into Sat. Conditions are marginal for the upper rivers, but there should be at least a few hours of SCA winds tonight. Winds become SE 10-15 kt Sat as high pressure moves offshore. Waves and seas were generally 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively early this morning. Seas build to 5-7 ft later this morning before gradually subsiding this afternoon. Seas subside below SCA criteria this evening before building back to 5-6 ft late tonight into Thu night behind the cold front. Seas may linger around 4-5 ft across the S coastal waters through Fri due to persistent onshore flow. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday... Winds remain SW this morning, before becoming W tonight. As such, water continues to be pushed towards the bay side of the Maryland Eastern Shore this morning. Bishops Head and Cambridge have both reached Minor Flood stage this morning. As such, the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect across portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore until 8 AM. Winds diminish later today, along with tidal anomalies. A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to begin tonight behind a cold front passage, lingering into Friday. While widespread coastal flooding is not expected, localized coastal flooding is possible along portions of the James river with nuisance to minor flooding possible during the Thursday night high tide at Smithfield, VA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633- 635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...JDM/MAM AVIATION...MAM/RHR MARINE...RMM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018005904#### FXUS62 KFFC 240814 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 414 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Key Messages: - Slight chance of light showers across portions of Central GA this afternoon and again S of Columbus area on Thursday associated with a weak front. A weak shortwave trough will move across the E Great Lakes and OH Valley region this morning. At the surface, a very weak cold front will sink S into the area today. Isolated showers may develop this afternoon along and just ahead of the front as it continues to sink S across Central GA. Have continued to include very light QPF amounts in that area along with 15% PoPs. Instability and dynamic support continue to look meager. It appears there will be a small amount of CAPE around cloud level (4-6kt) with a narrow dry layer just above. Confidence is low that much in the way of measurable rainfall will be realized. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 60s across the NE mountains to near 80 across the S. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s across the extreme NE to the upper 50s S and SE of Macon. Some patchy fog is possible around the Columbus area. The front will stall over the extreme S tonight and begin to lift back N as a warm front on Thursday. There may be a few more showers along this boundary Thursday afternoon across the extreme SW corner of the County Warning Area, but QPF values are again very low. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the lower 70s in the extreme NE to the mid 80s in the extreme SE. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Highlights: -The next opportunity for any appreciable rainfall now holds off until early next week. -Slightly above normal temperatures (excluding far NE GA) through the period. At the start of the long term period (Thursday night) a frontal boundary will be lifting back north as a warm front and while guidance still largely keeps the forecast area dry would not be surprised if some light rain showers and/or sprinkles occur in the vicinity of the front in addition to increased cloud cover. A wedge of high pressure is still slated to develop across the northeast on Friday resulting in cooler conditions in Northeast GA. As noted in the previous forecast discussion the past few model runs indicates slower timing of the next two closed low systems that develop east of the Rockies. Thus, any notable rainfall now looks to hold off until the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Midlevel ridging shifts east covering much of the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday resulting in the return of southwesterly flow. At the surface, a wedge will become more prominent across the northeast and southerly flow continues to increase at the lowest levels. Gradual moisture return in the way of increasing cloud cover can be expected through the weekend. Midlevel ridging holds steady and becomes more amplified extending up the East Coast through the weekend and into Monday. At the same time, the second closed low system that develops east of the Rockies will travel NNE towards the Great Lakes Region with the surface boundary inching eastward potentially becoming stalled just to our west. The current forecast has rain chances starting to increase across NW GA Monday afternoon and persisting through Tuesday. Details will continue to become defined over the next several days. Above normal temperatures are expected through the long term period for much of Central Georgia. Forecast highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s potentially reaching the upper 80s by early next week. Cooler temperatures can be expected for areas under the influence of the CAD wedge (across parts of North GA) particularly on Friday with forecast highs in the 50s/60s. Forecast lows will range from the 50s to low 60s through the period. 07 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Forecast remains basically unchanged, with VFR conditions expected to continue. A very weak frontal boundary will sink S through the area today, bringing the possibility of isolated light showers, particularly from the S portion of the Atlanta metro area into central GA. There is uncertainty whether these showers will materialize, as there will be minimal dynamic or thermodynamic support. Some small amount of CAPE will exist around 5kft, but there may also be a shallow dry layer right above the moisture and lift. Have opted for PROB30 -SHRA at ATL and FTY with VCSH at PDK, RYY, and AHN. Cigs should stay above 3kft. Winds will be generally light SW shifting to NW upon boundary passage, with a few gusts to near 20 kts possible in the afternoon. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium for shower development, high on all other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 77 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 76 54 79 59 / 10 0 0 10 Blairsville 69 44 74 52 / 10 0 0 10 Cartersville 74 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 80 57 83 62 / 0 0 10 0 Gainesville 74 51 77 57 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 10 Rome 74 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 78 52 81 59 / 10 0 0 10 Vidalia 80 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SEC