####018005520#### FXUS65 KFGZ 031627 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 927 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through the start of the week. Temperatures will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week. && .UPDATE...Another warm, mostly dry and breezy day is in store for today. A few more high clouds will be noted across northern Arizona throughout the afternoon, but that will be the biggest change from yesterday to today. A strong trough is still looking to dip across the region over the weekend, increasing winds both Saturday and even more so on Sunday. We'll be looking at a wind- related product for much of our CWA for Sunday, but decisions on that will be decided with the afternoon forecast package. For now, the previous forecast remains largely on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /327 AM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon. A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near- seasonable temperatures. As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great Basin and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal. The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds! With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on. As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region. Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes expected. && .AVIATION...Friday 03/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z...VFR conditions with SCT-BKN mid-level clouds are expected throughout today. Winds will be out of the west-southwest, 10-20 kts, from 17Z-02Z, becoming light and variable thereafter. OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/12Z through Monday 06/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions persist through the period. Anticipate mostly clear skies on Saturday, followed by SCT-BKN clouds on Sunday. Periods of MVFR VIS due to blowing dust are highly likely at KINW-KSJN- KRQE for Sunday afternoon. Expect southwest winds, 25-30 kts, on Saturday with even stronger southwest winds, sustained 25-35 kts and gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is likely on Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Mild and dry conditions persist for today and Saturday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees above average and widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. An increasing trend of southwest winds will develop and continue through Saturday. Expect gusts of 15 to 30 mph for this afternoon, followed by 25 to 35 mph on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds become strong on Sunday with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph. Areas prone to downsloping winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday, especially across northeast Arizona, where minimum humidity of 15% is forecast. The winds decrease by Sunday night, remaining breezy 20 to 35 mph from the west for Monday and Tuesday afternoon's. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/Meola AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018005048#### FXUS64 KMEG 031628 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1128 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The latest KNQA radar scan shows a decaying MCS slowly propagating east into eastern Arkansas at this hour. No lightning is currently detected, but that will likely change over the next hour or so as the atmosphere destabilizes. Downstream of the MCS, isolated to scattered showers have developed south of I-40. This activity should continue to fill in over the next couple of hours as daytime heating becomes maximized. Another area of convection has fired up to our south over the past hour and is slowly lifting into north Mississippi. As a result, increased PoPs mainly across north Mississippi to account for latest trends. Hi-res model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution of the aforementioned decaying MCS. Nonetheless, the MCS will likely turn into an MCV by late afternoon and then rotate northeast into middle TN through this evening. A few strong storms could occur, especially near the TN River, where instability will be greatest. Made significant changes to PoPs from now through tomorrow morning. Increased PoPs along and south of I-40 through early afternoon, increased PoPs this evening across west Tennessee, and decreased areawide PoPs through the overnight hours. Due to heavy cloud cover along I-40 this morning, went ahead and also decreased high temperatures a few degrees. The rest of the forecast is on track. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS's are producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800 J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible this afternoon. Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined with sufficient instability may result the development of a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday due to a lack of model consensus this morning. Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will likely be common across the terminals through the at least 18z. Some IFR ceilings may mix at times for a few hours this morning at MEM/MKL/JBR. Confidence is low in how convection will redevelop later today so have included VCTS remarks for now but may need to adjust forecast once trends become more clear. Low clouds may be more prevalent towards TUP tonight after 06z and have included MVFR ceilings for now. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...TAB