####018008038#### FXUS66 KLOX 141131 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 431 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...14/1207 AM. A warming trend will continue through Wednesday, with dangerous expected for many areas through Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the mountains and the Antelope Valley this afternoon. Gusty northwest to north winds are forecast for southern Santa Barbara County and the LA and Ventura interior mountains during the afternoon and overnight hours today and especially Wednesday. Cooler weather will begin to arrive on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/228 AM. Over the next three days CA the state will be under the western edge of large and hot upper high. Hgts will wobble between 590 dam and 592 dam. The sfc pressure gradients will be the most important factor in the forecast. The E/W gradient will likely be weakly onshore in the morning becoming mdt onshore in the afternoon. This gradient will also become a little more onshore each day. The N/S gradient will likely be weakly offshore in the morning and weakly onshore in the afternoon. There is a 30 percent chc that there will be offshore flow from the east on Wednesday morning. The high hgts and weaker than normal onshore flow will team up Today and Wednesday to bring two days of warming. Most areas will see 3 to 6 degrees of warming today with the exceptions of the Antelope Vly which will likely see 8 to 10 degrees of warming and the Central Coast where a stronger sea breeze will bring a little cooling. Wednesday will be the warmest day with another 3 to 6 degrees of warming on tap for the entire area. This warming will bring 100 to 110 degree heat to the vlys, lower mtn elevations and the far interior on Wednesday. The increase in onshore flow will bring some cooling on Thursday, but not enough to eliminate the heat risk. The Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect for most of the area will persist through Thursday evening. Please see the product LAXNPWLOX for all of the details. During the heat wave, it is very important to avoid the heat of the day as much as possible, especially between 10AM and 7PM. There will be one more day of monsoonal moisture moving into and over the area within the upper high's circulation pattern. This mositure will bring a 20-40 percent chc of showers/TSTMs to the mountains and Antelope Vly. The highest chc of convection will occur over the eastern San Gabriels and the higher Ventura Mountains. Strong Sundowner winds are forecast for the SBA south coast with over 4mb of an offshore push from both the KSMX and KBFL gradients. Northerly winds with gusts 30-00 mph will affect most of the SBA south coast tonight. The Sundowner winds will peak Wednesday evening with gust 35-50 mph (local gusts to 60 mph are possible in the foothills). These winds with their adiabatic compressional heating could bring temps in the 90s all the way to the beaches with triple digit heat in the foothills. The hot and dry conditions will greatly increase the fire danger and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of the Santa Barbara South Coast and Mountains Wednesday into Thursday morning. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/226 AM. Very little change in the synoptic pattern during the long term. Hgts will sit around 592 dam through the period. The sfc gradients will be the bigger news as they will both trend onshore and become mdt to stg. There will be night through morning low clouds and fog across the csts xtng locally into the vlys. Max temps will nose dive 6 to 12 degrees on Friday. This cooling will bring max temps to or even a few degrees blo normal. After Friday temps will not change much day to day as the synoptic situation will not change much. PWATs will remain around 1 inch and there will be a non zero chc of some afternoon mtn showers, but more likely just some cloud build ups. Long range mdls do show a generous uptick in moisture due to the movement of a tropical system next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...14/1130Z. At 0832Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 1000 ft. The top of the inversion was at 2100 ft with a max temperature of 26 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KOXR, KCMA and KLGB with a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs 13Z-17Z. Fair confidence in TAF for KSMO and KLAX with a 30 percent chc of low MVFR cigs and that VFR conds arriving within an hour of fcst. There is a 15 percent chance of TSRA at KPMD/KWJF from 14/18Z through 15/01Z. These storms would be capable of producing erratic winds, turbulence and heavy rainfall. KLAX...Fair confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN010-012 cigs through 17Z. Good confidence that VFR conds will arrive between 16Z-18Z. No significant east wind component expected. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. && .MARINE...14/153 AM. NW winds are expected to strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the Outer Waters this afternoon and will continue through Thursday night. There is also 20% chance of Gales later Wednesday into Thursday. Seas are forecast to build over 10 feet in conjunction with these winds. The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore waters along the Central Coast at times through this period, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. While a few showers may drift across the local waters through early parts of this week, thunderstorms are unlikely. && .BEACHES...14/154 AM. Dangerous rip currents and breaking waves with elevated surf are expected for coastal areas and the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, as enhanced southerly swell continues. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through Wednesday evening for these areas. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the evenings, given abnormally high tides of 7.0 to 7.6 feet. Later this week and into the weekend, distant storms over the East Pacific waters well south of the area could produce increasing southerly swell resulting in even more significant beach hazards by the weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PDT this morning for zones 38-88-343>345-353-368-372-373-375>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory remains in effect from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). Fire Weather Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Black/KL BEACHES...Cohen/DB SYNOPSIS...MW/Cohen/CC weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018008671#### FXUS61 KBTV 141131 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 731 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 228 AM EDT Tuesday... Smoke has been added to parts of northern New York and Vermont based on wildfire smoke developing across Canada. The potential for high heat and widespread strong to severe thunderstorms, especially along the international border, remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 228 AM EDT Tuesday... 1. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Vermont and much of northern New York today, along with some wildfire smoke moving into the region. Some localized fire weather concerns are possible 2. An Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms remains for northeastern New York and northern Vermont tonight when significant severe weather and isolated flash flooding is possible. A more typical potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms returns for Thursday. 3. Relatively seasonable weekend and start to next week with shower chances. && .DISCUSSION... As of 228 AM EDT Tuesday... KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot weather is expected today as a brief surge of heat breaking out of the expansive upper high in the Central US will bring 90s across the region. A humid air mass will build, but not reaching the heights of the heat at the end of June into early July. Heat indices of 93-103 will be common through the region. There are a few caveats to make note of. One will be gusty winds. That can be a double-edged sword, allowing downslope regions to warm, but also resulting in turbulent mixing that can allow some of the cooler air aloft to filter to the ground not completely washed out by adiabatic compression. There's also cloud cover associated with the convective mass in northern Quebec Province, and some of the wildfire smoke due to fires initiated as a result of thunderstorms rounding the ring of fire across central Canada. HRRR and Canadian smoke forecasts depict increasing smoke aloft, and even some near the surface as well propagating east this morning and afternoon. On one hand, this might slightly reduce temperatures at the surface, but wildfire smoke can exacerbate heat-health hazards. Regardless if this causes us to come up short on the heat index forecast, the impacts will be the same. Avoid prolonged exposure outdoors and drink plenty of water. Seek shade often and take frequent breaks. Finally, the combination of breezy conditions with gusts 20-35 mph and relative humidity values of 35-45 percent in south-central Vermont could produce localized fire weather concerns where less precipitation has been observed. KEY MESSAGE 2: There has been little change regarding the severe threat along the international border. Some variations in the coverage of storms remains, but the intensity will not be in question as 2000- 3000 J/kg of CAPE will be present along northern Vermont and northern New York as a sharp frontal boundary initiates thunderstorms north of the international border. Ample shear will provide the potential for organization of storms into bowing segments and significant downburst winds. One potential consideration will be the smoke aloft and how that will effect the removal of the capping inversion in place. Mid-level smoke can absorb solar radiation that can stabilize conditions in the low- level, but on the other hand, this could maintain mid-level lapse rates until the height falls and precipitation begin to erode the cap. Based on soundings, it still seems to be about 6PM or 7PM that the cap erodes, and then the convection already ongoing across Canada, and the sharp boundary they are associated with allows the development of strong updrafts in our region. Storms will be in a bit of a race against the clock. Decreasing CAPE, storm-relative helicity, and eroding/translating EML are expected after 8-9 PM. So storms have a 2-3 hour window to become intense, and then gradually weaken as they pass south. If initial convection heads east early, this could also stabilize our area, and smoke is always a wild card with these features. Some isolated flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms redevelop on the western periphery of any bowing segments, with the greatest chances for such a feature across the northern half of Vermont. Guidance remains more stayed with the hydro potential, but we will monitor closely. Thus, risk timing is greatest between 7 PM and midnight. All hazards are possible, including low probabilities of wind gusts greater than 70 MPH and a tornado risk, although we emphasize straight line winds are much more likely to be the hazard in this environment given fairly straight hodographs in the low levels. The risk dwindles heading south and west due; however, a long tracked, well-developed line or supercell poses some risk across our region, consistent with the Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms south of the Enhanced area (Level 3 of 5). Following any additional showers ahead of the cold front early Wednesday morning, the next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Thursday ahead of a weaker variety cold front. Gradual cooling will take place as an upper low spirals to our northeast. The Thursday evening/Thursday night front will also come from the north, but with much less heat and humidity to work with and more limited wind shear, expect much less impact with perhaps a couple of afternoon/evening thunderstorms depending on the timing of convection. KEY MESSAGE 3: A somewhat strong area of low pressure for the time of year will make a run at the region for the latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next week, and it will likely bring multiple rounds of showers. Ensemble consensus brings the pressure just under 1000 MB. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of the region receiving more than 0.5 inches of rain are between 30-60 percent and they fall to below 15 percent for receiving more than an inch. Temperatures will stay around seasonable normals, with highs generally in the 70s to mid 80s, and lows generally in the 50s and low 60s. Depending on the storm track and timing of any associated frontal passages, the threat of strong to severe storms will be watched, but the threat should remain on the lower side due to a cooler and less humid airmass. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Conditions are currently all VFR and that will be the case through the afternoon. A broken line of showers and storms will move down from the north this evening and overnight. It will cause frequent lightning, a period of MVFR to IFR visibility and gusty/erratic winds at any terminal it reaches. The storms should exit northern areas by 6Z. Winds will be relatively light and variable for the rest of the night, except at PBG and MSS where gusts out of the west to southwest up to 15 KT are possible. Winds become stronger and southwesterly at the rest of the terminal today, with gusts in the 15-25 KT range. Winds slowly diminish this evening. A round of LLWS is possible this evening at all terminals. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .CLIMATE... High temperatures on Tuesday will be hot, but we are at the climatological warmest part of the year. Therefore, it is far from a certainty that any records will occur. MSS looks most likely to set a new record. PBG also is currently forecast to set a new record. MPV, and especially BTV and SLK, are unlikely to do so. See below for current records: Max Temp Records Date BTV MPV MSS PBG SLK 07-14 100|1995 94|1952 92|2012 95|1952 95|1934 High Min Temp Records Date PBG 07-14 70|1974 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001>011-016>021. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026>029-031-035-087. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes DISCUSSION...Haynes/Myskowski AVIATION...Myskowski CLIMATE...NWS BTV ####018004843#### FXUS65 KVEF 141133 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 433 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another round of mainly terrain-focused monsoonal convection is expected this afternoon and early evening, with additional thunderstorm chances each day this week. * Near and slightly above normal temperatures will continue through midweek, with moisture and cloud cover maintaining warm overnight temperatures before temperatures decrease slightly heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Through Monday. An persistent influx of monsoonal moisture continues to be the main forecast concern through the rest of the week. Storm initiation should take place in the late morning as cloud debris from last night's storms clears and surface heating commences. There is still not too much instability to work with today with SBCAPE between 500 and 800 J/kg at best. Therefore, storm formation will favor areas of high terrain where orographic lift will assist in development. Similar to yesterday, gusty outflow winds and brief downpours are the main concerns with any storms that form. Convection should cease after sunset with a loss of surface heating, but outflow boundaries and weak showers may continue to drift across the desert through the night. Similar patterns can be expected over the next few days. However, moisture will gradually saturate lower levels of the atmosphere, resulting in increasing concerns for flash flooding. Friday into the weekend appears particularly conducive for heavy rainfall as an inverted trough over southern New Mexico and West Texas assists in drawing tropical moisture into the region. Will continue to monitor the position of this feature and its affect on the precipitation forecast. Westward expansion of high pressure over the next few days will allow temperatures to increase 3 to 5 degrees above normal for mid-July by Wednesday and Thursday. Hot daytime temperatures, warm overnight temperatures, and monsoonal humidity result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets of High (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk on both days. It should be noted that cloud debris from the previous day's convection may trap heat and result in warmer overnight lows, while cloud cover and rainfall may lower daytime highs in locations affected by storms. Temperatures start to decrease later in the week as high pressure moves back east. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Outside of convective influences, winds will generally remain around 5-10KT, varying between the south and southeast this morning before settling out of the southwest this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain surrounding the Valley this afternoon, with a window from roughly 21Z-01Z when thunderstorms and accompanying outflow could impact the terminal. Gusty winds and lightning are the main concerns, along with brief visibility reductions due to blowing dust and terrain obscuration due to lower ceilings around 7-8kft. Ceilings will otherwise be SCT-BKN at or above 10kft. Temperatures today will exceed 100F between 20Z-03Z, reaching a high of 104 degrees around 00Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Away from convective influences this afternoon and evening, winds across the region will generally remain around 5-10KT, varying between the south and southwest. An exception will be across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG, where winds shift to the northwest later this morning before backing to the southwest and gusting to around 20KT early evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain early this afternoon and continue through sunset, with activity moving across lower elevations late afternoon into the evening. Erratic gusty winds and lightning are the main concerns, along with brief visibility reductions due to blowing dust. Confidence remains too low to include TS mention at KDAG, KEED, and KIFP, although these terminals could be impacted by erratic gusty winds along outflow boundaries. Outside of storms, ceilings will be SCT-BKN at or above 10kft, though lower ceilings to around 6-8kft are possible with storms. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter