####018009132#### FXUS63 KJKL 040210 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 910 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold and mainly dry weather persists through Thursday. - Wintry precipitation is possible late Thursday night into Friday, with the greatest chances along and south of the Mtn Pkwy where the Friday morning commute could be impacted. - The pattern is expected to remain active through the weekend and perhaps the middle of next week as well, though long term forecast confidence in details remains low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Made minor updates to PoPs and Sky grids through Thursday morning, mainly to be in better collaboration with neighboring offices as a moisture-starved cold front moves quickly east across the area and brings mostly flurries and possibly a few light snow showers, mainly north of Interstate 64. No significant impacts are expected at this time. UPDATE Issued at 614 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 The early evening update is out. Low clouds are retreating north across northeastern Kentucky currently as low-level 925-mb winds are increasing out of the south and southwest. However, the passage of a weak cold front later tonight will allow for low clouds to move back across eastern Kentucky. Forecast changes were minor, but may not be quick enough in moving the low clouds out of our CWA over the next few hours to the north of I-64. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday morning) Issued at 420 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Clearing has occurred in the southern half to two thirds of the area as high pressure at the surface and aloft shifts across eastern KY. This clearing should continue spreading north this evening. This should allow for temperatures to drop down into the 20s areawide this evening into the overnight. This evening through Thursday, the upper level low and trough should rotate into Ontario and Quebec and across the Great lakes and OH Valley to the Northeast and mid Atlantic. The associated cold front will precede it and sweep across the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid Atlantic to Carolinas/northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. After a relative minimum in cloud cover, mid and upper level moisture should increase overnight. Some patchy flurries or light snow is possible near and north of I-64 and especially Fleming County from this late. The cold front should cross eastern KY Thursday morning to early Thursday afternoon, accompanied by some mid and even a few low level clouds in the north and a few flurries or patchy light snow may occur early on Thursday near and north of I-64. Sfc high pressure pressure briefly building in from the Midwest/Mid MS Valley vicinity to the southern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, further south and west, the shortwave trough/upper low initially near the Four Corners region will move into sections of the Plains. In advance of it, a sfc low should take shape over the northwestern to northern Gulf with an inverted trough developing north into the TN Valley and Lower OH Valley ahead of the shortwave trough moving from the Plains toward the Ozarks and MS Valley. Thursday night through Friday morning, the shortwave trough that will be nearing the Ozarks and mid and Lower MS Valley late Thursday will progress into the Lower OH Valley as well as the TN Valley and Southeast on Thursday night, shifting east of eastern Ky Friday morning. An additional shortwave or two should also approach from the west on Friday morning. Meanwhile, the sfc low over the northern Gulf on Thursday evening should track to near the mouth of the MS River on Thursday night and toward northwest FL through Friday morning. The inverted trough should remain north of this system and shift into southeastern KY Thursday night and Friday. There has generally been a trend among the convective allowing guidance such as the 12Z and 18Z HRRR as well as 15Z RAP in addition to the 18Z NAM and 12Z GEM and 12Z ECMWF for measurable precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning to be near and south of the Mtn Parkway if not more confined to along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway to KY 80 corridor. The NBM pops may be too far north and pops may eventually need a tighter gradient in the southern half of the area as the 00Z ECMWF had been further north than the 12Z ECMWF and the NBM is more heavily weighted toward the EC guidance. The thermal profile through 12Z or 7 AM EST Friday per LREF forecast soundings become marginal and near the 0C isotherm in the lowest few thousand feet though wet bulbing or significant lift could result in slightly colder profiles. This suggests a rain versus snow forecast with higher elevations more favored for more or all snow and a mix with or change to rain in valleys in the south for late Thursday night. If surface temperatures were to lag some freezing rain is not out of the question. Overall, quite a bit of uncertainty remains, but if the more recent higher resolution guidance trends in the HRRR and RAP, etc. hold, a portion of the area may need to be considered for a winter weather headline as wintry precipitation perhaps mostly or all snow may impact the Friday morning commute in some areas, particularly the southern two tiers of counties form McCreary to Pike and south. .LONG TERM...(Friday afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain. Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday. An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type) will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the end of the forecast period. The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally forecast to remain below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 620 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Low-MVFR cigs should continue to move north of the TAF sites through this evening, with high clouds moving over the region otherwise. VFR conditions should prevail in most areas until between 04z to 12z, generally from west to east and north to south, when low-MVFR and/or IFR cigs are likely to begin to spread back into the area as a cold front approaches and passes. The more southern TAF sites, KLOZ and KSME, and areas nearer to the VA border and TN border may largely return to VFR conditions by the afternoon Thursday, with less certainty for the remainder of the TAF sites as to when cigs will improve. Light west to southwest winds will prevail during the first 12 hours of the period and then a gradual shift to the west and then northwest at around 5KT after the weak cold frontal passage can be expected. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...CMC ####018009081#### FXUS61 KLWX 040214 AAA AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 914 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions look to continue through tonight with high pressure nearby. A reinforcing cold front will pass through the area Thursday delivering a few mountain snow showers and breezy conditions. Light wintry precipitation chances return Friday as low pressure passes to the south. High pressure briefly returns this weekend before a pair of clipper-like systems impact the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Increasing high clouds tonight. Cold with lows in the mid 20s under light winds. Previous afd... High pressure will move across the area through tonight resulting in light to calm winds, a mainly clear sky (at least to start), and cold temperatures. Lows will drop into the 20s for most, with teens possible in the coldest spots and around 30 in the major city centers. Mid/high clouds begin to increase late tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Some snow shower activity will approach the Alleghenies late. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Snow shower activity persists through Thursday morning along and west of the Allegheny Front. Although amounts will be generally light (a coating to an inch, perhaps two on the west-facing slopes above 2500 feet in western Garrett County MD), the very cold temperatures will allow any snow that falls to stick to untreated surfaces. This may impact the morning commute. Otherwise, a reinforcing cold front will drop swiftly through the area on Thursday. This will result in blustery northwest winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Initially, cold air advection may be offset by downsloping flow east of the Appalachians. However, Thursday night looks to be one of the coldest (if not the coldest) night of the season thus far. Winds are expected to become much lighter Thursday night keeping wind chill factors to a minimum. Low pressure begins to take shape over the north-central Gulf Coast ahead of a messy, low amplitude shortwave trough shifting into the Tennessee River Valley Thursday night. High pressure will slowly retreat. The air will be plenty cold to support snow, but abundant dry air left behind by the high as well as only modest forcing associated with the distant low and shortwave may prove detrimental for precipitation production locally. Upper jet forcing will increase especially near and south of I-64 through the day. It is in these areas that some light snow is most likely, perhaps mixed with a little rain or freezing rain depending on exactly how the low track and low- level temperature profiles play out. Further north, it remains rather iffy whether or not accumulating precipitation develops. The ECMWF guidance remains the most amplified and furthest north, with the GFS guidance suppressed further south. There is a bit better agreement overall, but confidence remains low. Check back for updates at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Synoptically, not too much of a change in the overall pattern with broad troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging back toward the west. The northern jet stream will remain quite active with several perturbations set to work near or through the forecast area during the early and middle part of next week. The bulk of the weekend looks to remain dry outside of some leftover upslope mountain snow showers/southern MD showers Saturday as low pressure departs offshore and a weak piece of shortwave energy pivots through. An additional weak cold frontal boundary Sunday may touch off some additional upslope mountain snow shower activity although probabilities of 2" or more remain well below 30 percent across the Alleghenies throughout the weekend. Uncertainty starts to increase in the forecast late Sunday night into Monday as low pressure works east from the mid-Mississippi River Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, 1028- 1032 mb high pressure will remain wedged in east of the Appalachians providing a direct cold air source out of eastern Canada. The strength of the wedging high and approaching low pressure system will dictate the overall coverage and intensity of any wintry precipitation that may occur. The low will work across the southern Mid-Atalntic and central Appalachians Monday afternoon into Monday evening before turning into a coastal low feature off the Carolinas/southeast U.S. Coast Monday night into Tuesday. Most of the 06z/12z deterministic/ensemble guidance from today (Wednesday) suggests a similar track to the low pressure system that looks to occur on Friday (December 5, 2025). Moisture availability will be key although most guidance suggests a light wintry precip type of event favoring areas mainly south of I-66/US-50. Even with that said, confidence remains very low given the current model spread. Stay tuned and continue to monitor weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest. A pair of clipper like systems will traverse the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Both of these systems look to swing across the Great Lakes driving a series of fronts through the region. Each storm system could deliver a period of light snow to the mountains with perhaps a rain/snow mix further east. Of course this will be dependent upon moisture availability and the overall track of the low as it drops south/east. High temperatures will remain at or below average throughout the period. Highs will push into the 30s and 40s each day with mountain locations remaining in the 20s. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the teens and 20s. Monday looks to be the coldest day of the extended with even colder air set to arrive by late next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Light and variable to calm winds are possible this evening before a shift to west and northwest winds 05Z-10Z behind a weak pre-frontal trough. Winds increase further along with mid-level clouds as a cold front swings through on Thursday. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots should be common with a few peak gusts to 30 knots possible 14Z-22Z. Winds will become light Thursday night out of the north to calm, then southerly Friday as low pressure glides by to the south and a weak front approaches from the west. Some restrictions are possible especially further south (i.e. KCHO) in wintry precip as the low passes, but uncertainty remains in how far north appreciable precip gets. Winds shift back to light out of the northwest Friday night with gradual clearing expected. VFR conditions return this weekend into much of next week. Some temporary sub-VFR reductions are possible late Sunday into Monday, and Tuesday into Wednesday, especially over the mountains as multiple clipper systems pass through. Winds will remain light out of the north and northwest Saturday with high pressure nearby. Light northerly winds will continue Sunday into Monday with speeds less than 10 knots. && .MARINE... High pressure moving across the area will result in light and somewhat erratic winds through early Thursday morning (generally south shifting to northwest at 5 knots or less). A cold front will cross the waters Thursday resulting in increasing winds and a more steady northwest direction. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be common, with a few gusts around 30 knots possible through early Thursday evening before winds diminish. Low pressure will pass to the south Friday and a weak front will cross from west to east. Winds will be generally light during this time - south Friday, then northwest Friday night. Some snow or a wintry mix may make it into the area Friday as the low passes to the south, most likely over the waters in the vicinity of southern Maryland. Sub SCA level north to northwesterly winds are expected throughout the weekend. SCA level winds look to return to the waters Monday through Wednesday as a series of fronts pass through. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night for ANZ530>533-538>541. Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night for ANZ534-537-542-543. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM EST Thursday for ANZ535. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM EST Thursday for ANZ536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...DHOF LONG TERM...EST AVIATION...LFR/EST MARINE...LFR/EST