####018005094#### FXUS64 KLZK 240851 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 351 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A weak frontal bndry was aligned acrs north AR early this mrng, with a few light showers noted along it. Predawn temps were in the 50s to the north of the front, with 60s noted elsewhere. Seeing locally dense fog form over the far north, mainly in the vcnty of the area lakes and rivers. Model solutions this mrng are in overall good agreement, taking the fnt into southwest AR later today and tngt before stalling out. Rain chcs today wl be confined mainly to locations along and south of the front, albeit mainly in the 20-30% range. The aforementioned front wl eventually return to the north as a warm fnt Thu into Thu night in response to a deepening low pres system over the eastern Rockies. Convection wl incrs in coverage Thu as a weak upper SWT apchs fm the west. The highest rain chcs (60-80%) wl be focused along and north of the warm fnt. Cannot rule out a few strong storms, but the main concern wl be the potential for heavy rainfall and possibly some localized flooding. The bndry is expected to lift north of AR Thu ngt, with warm and humid conds returning to the FA. The focus for any lingering convection wl be acrs parts of north and western AR by early Fri mrng. The unsettled wx pattern wl cont beyond this fcst period. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will overshadow the entire period of Friday through Tuesday. In the upper lvls, a series of closed lows and SWTs will approach the region. In tandem at the sfc, a series of low pressure systems will remain in the Central Plains region of the CONUS with their attendant southward extending cold front and dryline in cohesion with a warm front that will lift through the region and allow for a large warm sector to open up across the Southern Plains into the Mid-South regions of the CONUS. At the current time, a slight risk of severe weather will be possible across portions of Arkansas on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as all modes of severe weather will be possible. Expect several rounds of rain and thunderstorms across the CWA through Monday when the trof axis finally pushes over the Mid-South region of the CONUS and the sfc cold front finally moves across the state of Arkansas and in the wake of the cold front a sfc high pressure will move into the region of the Ohio River Valley of the CONUS by Tuesday bringing an end to the unsettled period of weather across Arkansas and the CWA. A threat that needs to be also addressed is the possibility of excessive rainfall over the period of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in which localized flash flooding will be possible across the state and CWA. The threat itself needs to be treated in the same capacity of the threat of the traditional all modes of severe weather associated with a few tornadoes, severe wind gusts, and large hail. Details will continue to become more clear in the next 12 to 24 hours. However, confidence continues to build that severe weather will be likely across portions of the state and CWA on Friday and Saturday with more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday along with the threat of flash flooding, especially in locations vulnerable to flooding. Temperatures over this period will be slightly above normal with respect to both low and high temperatures over this period compared to climatological normals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Frontal bndry over north AR wl cont to drift to the south and eventually stall out in the southern part of the FA on Wed. Mainly VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD, but some MVFR CIGS are possible after daybreak Wed central and southern AR. Looks like any organized rain chcs wl be limited, so no mention in the fcst. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 54 64 61 / 10 50 80 20 Camden AR 76 61 80 65 / 30 20 20 0 Harrison AR 72 53 62 58 / 10 70 80 40 Hot Springs AR 77 58 72 65 / 30 50 60 10 Little Rock AR 77 59 72 65 / 20 50 70 10 Monticello AR 77 61 79 67 / 30 20 30 0 Mount Ida AR 76 58 73 65 / 40 60 60 10 Mountain Home AR 73 53 62 58 / 10 50 80 40 Newport AR 74 55 66 61 / 0 30 70 20 Pine Bluff AR 77 59 75 65 / 20 40 50 0 Russellville AR 77 56 67 62 / 20 60 70 20 Searcy AR 75 54 67 61 / 10 50 80 10 Stuttgart AR 77 59 70 66 / 10 40 60 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...44 ####018005375#### FXUS61 KCAR 240853 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 453 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will cross the area today then continue into the Maritimes this evening as a cold front following the low pushes offshore. High pressure will build across the region Thursday into Saturday. A warm front will approach Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure will push east into our area today ahead of a small but vigorous upper trough pushing across Quebec. Rain, supported by lift out ahead of the upper trough and surface convergence with the surface low, will push into western areas early this morning then reach the east by late morning. This will be a light rain with amounts ranging from a third of an inch over the north to less than a tenth of an inch Downeast. As the low continues east into New Brunswick late this afternoon, colder air will surge in behind the low changing the rain over to snow around early afternoon in the northwest and late afternoon in the northeast. The snow will taper off early this evening. Snow amounts up to an inch are possible over the north, mainly on grassy surfaces, with a little over an inch possible over higher elevations. Low pressure will continue away through the Maritimes tonight as a quick surge of cold air rushes in behind the low on gusty northwesterly winds. Lows by morning will range from near 20 over the north to 30 along the coast. A gusty northwesterly wind will continue all night keeping the air well mixed as the sky becomes clear over central and southern areas and partly cloudy across the northeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes Thursday. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will clip the region early Thursday. The disturbance could bring the slight chance of a snow shower to northern Aroostook county early Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will build toward the region Thursday with partly/mostly sunny skies north with mostly sunny skies Downeast. The pressure gradient between the exiting Maritimes low and building high pressure will support gusty northwest winds Thursday. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are expected into early Thursday afternoon, then decreasing late. High pressure builds across the region Thursday night through Friday night with mostly clear skies. Below normal level temperatures are expected Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will begin to slowly exit east Saturday, with a warm front approaching Saturday night. Expect mostly sunny skies Saturday morning, then partly sunny during the afternoon. Clouds then increase Saturday night in advance of the approaching warm front. Could also have a slight chance/chance of rain showers late. The warm front stalls across the region Sunday. Expect a chance of showers with the stalling front Sunday. However, slowly exiting high pressure should help to limit the shower coverage. The boundary should begin to lift back north Monday, while high pressure remains ridged across the Maritimes. A chance of showers will persist Monday. Low pressure will begin to approach, from the west, later Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday, with a steadier rain possible. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will drop to MVFR late this morning then IFR this afternoon in rain, and some snow north. Conditions will likely improve to MVFR then VFR tonight, first Downeast then across the north. Winds will be light southerly today then strong gusty northwesterly tonight. SHORT TERM: Thursday...Occasional MVFR possible with a slight chance of snow showers across northern areas early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Thursday night through Saturday..VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night, then around 10 knots Friday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night through Saturday. Saturday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance to chance of rain showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will be below SCA today then increase to a strong SCA tonight in gusty NW winds following a cold frontal passage. Seas will build up to 5 ft today then 6 ft tonight. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions expected into Thursday. Winds/seas then below small craft advisory levels Thursday night into Friday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Norcross