####018008052#### FXUS63 KGLD 261916 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 116 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will shift to the NW and increase to 30-40 mph this afternoon. This may create hazardous travel conditions, especially for high profile vehicles. This includes the Interstate 70 corridor in eastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas. - There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Hazards similar to what the area received in the past 24 hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 635 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Update to forecast sent to add in mention of patchy dense fog for a few hours this morning in far E/NE zones. Currently, KNRN is showing a quarter mile in fog. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy as a slow moving low pressure system continues to impact the area. There are some light scattered showers still over extreme eastern areas from yesterday round of severe wx. Temperatures as of 200 AM MDT are ranging widely from the upper 40s to the lower 50s west into the 50s and 60s east. The position of the low is allowing for winds to range mainly southerly along/east of Highway 25, and northerly west of there. This wind regime is impacting the current range in temps over the area. Going into today and through the upcoming weekend, the main wx concerns will focus on some exiting showers and thunderstorms today from the slow exiting system, another round of severe wx for Saturday afternoon and evening for much of the CWA, with tapering precip to end off the weekend. For Today/Tonight: the latest CAMs (NamNest, HRRR and RAP) all show a round of precipitation initiating through the day as the low over western Kansas lifts northeast. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is showing an open wave which will lift in tandem with the surface feature, creating increased chances for precip. A strong amplified upper ridge over the east is the reason for the slow exit of this system. Based on model guidance, the best chances/pops(40-60%) will occur north of the Interstate. Weak DCape/MUCape suggest some thunder is possible, at least during the afternoon hours. As the low lifts out, the wrap-around gradient on the back side could bring gusts into the 30-40 mph range before tapering going into Saturday morning. For this weekend: another surface low will form in the wake of the current exiting system during the day Saturday. A closed low at 500mb will accompany this surface feature Saturday afternoon/evening. With high pressure blocking both lows to the east, the weekend system will take a close track to the one currently leaving. Conditions are expected to drop considerably by the afternoon as storms develop along and north of the front ahead/east of the low. MUCape/DCape in the 500-1000j/kg range, 0-3km EHI showing enhancement along/north of the front is going to allow for strong to even severe storms to develop. Currently, SPC has a Slight Risk for severe wx with all hazards in play(similar to the past 24 hours). High localized PW values could also bring about localized heavy rainfall and combined with rain already fallen, could pose some hydro issues and will have to be monitored. The bulk of the precip is expected to taper Saturday night into Sunday morning w/ a slow clearing from south to north as the low exits north. For temps, highs today will range widely from mainly the 60s north of the Interstate and 70s mainly south. Highs will be dependent on how fast the current low pressure system lifts out of the area/clouds clear from south to north. Going into this weekend, a low pressure system and associated front on Saturday will provide another wide range with areas west of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Goodland, Kansas up to Culbertson, Nebraska in the 50s and 60s. East of there, mainly 70s. Numbers will be highly dependent on extent of cloud cover/storms. Cooler to end off the weekend with a range on Sunday in upper 50s to lower 60s west, into the mid 60s south and east. Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s west into the mid 40s east, especially east of Highway 25. Temps trend slightly lower into the weekend with upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday night, coldest areas along/west of Highway 27. Sunday night, mainly upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 113 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A relatively calm pattern is expected in the long-term. Northwesterly flow Monday will become zonal and eventually southwesterly into Wednesday morning. We could see a weak shortwave move through the area Tuesday night, increasing PoPs into the teens across the northern CWA. Tuesday afternoon is looking dry, with minimum RH values in the upper teens in Greeley county. Winds will be gusting around 20 kts, leading to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Prolonged fire weather conditions currently look unlikely (~15%), but cannot be ruled out. Wednesday or Thursday looks like it will be the next chance at an impactful event. A positively tilted upper-level trough will impact the region in this timeframe. Details are very murky for this run of model guidance, but PoPs are in the teens to 30s for Wednesday night through Thursday. Storms are possible during this time, confidence that severe weather will occur is less than 15%. Lingering showers and low end storms will continue for the remainder of the period, but may clear out sooner if the trough moves to the east quicker. Temperatures are forecast to warm up through Wednesday, mid 70s to mid 80s are expected. The current forecast has the cold front coming through Thursday morning, so cooler temperatures will result. Highs in the upper 60s for Thursday will result with temperatures increasing about 5 degrees Friday. Overnight temperatures will be fairly stable in the 40s for the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 At KGLD: VFR conditions are expected this afternoon as low pressure lifts to the northeast. Northwest winds remain breezy. Ceilings will lift heading into the evening and overnight hours. Winds shift to the northeast tomorrow and ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR/sub MVFR levels during the morning as another storm system moves in. AFter the end of the forecast period, showers and thunderstorms return to the area. At KMCK: IFR conditions are possible for the next hour or so as showers continue to impact the terminal. Ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR conditions later this afternoon as showers move out. Winds will gradually shift to the north/northeast tomorrow morning. Toward the end of the forecast, there will be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal. Any thunderstorm activity tomorrow may result in reductions to visibility and wind shifts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 With the rainfall received over the region in the past 24 hours, and what is expected from showers and storms today and this weekend, we will be monitoring those areas already prone from recent rains. With some locales receiving 1-2" already and the potential for another localized 1-2" in spots already hit, hydro concerns could crop up concerning localized flooding. There are currently no Flood products issued/in effect. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Wekesser HYDROLOGY... ####018008442#### FXUS63 KGRB 261917 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Several systems will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms tonight through mid-week. Storms Sunday into Sunday night could produce periods of moderate to heavy rain, resulting in chances for isolated flash flooding in urban and low lying areas. - It remains possible that conditions will support a few strong to severe storms from mid-Saturday afternoon through early Saturday evening over northeast Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. - Conditions hazardous to small craft will be possible at times tonight through the weekend on the Bay and Lake. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Saturday The latest RAP analysis and satellite imagery show a Rocky Mountain cyclone developing over Nebraska with a warm front extending east across Missouri and far southern Illinois. Strong isentropic ascent via 40-50kt low level jet are pushing showers into far southwest Wisconsin early this afternoon. However, these showers are running into a very dry airmass associated with a receding Hudson Bay high where PWATs remain 25% of normal over far northeast parts of Wisconsin. The strong southerly flow remains expected to overwhelm the dry air, and push some these showers into central and east-central WI by mid to late afternoon. As the low tracks northeast and across the region over the next 24 hours, precipitation trends and severe weather potential remain the primary forecast concerns. Precipitation trends tonight into Saturday morning...Showers will continue to surge northeast across the region this evening. Elevated instability will eventually move into the region, but not until late evening into the overnight. Some models depict elevated instability reaching up into the 500-700 j/kg range, but with effective shear values under 20 kts, most likely looking at sub- severe storms that could produce small hail. As the low level jet lifts into Upper Michigan, precip will trail off late overnight into Saturday morning across the region. Most of the region will remain shrouded in clouds until midday. Severe potential on Saturday afternoon...As the low pressure system moves into the Lake Superior region on Saturday afternoon, it will leave behind a trailing cold front across northeast Wisconsin. This cold front could become the focus for strong or severe storms starting around mid to late afternoon. A conditional severe weather event remains in the cards. Uncertainties revolve around how destabilization and mid-level capping evolves in the afternoon. Low levels are forecast to remain quite moisture laden, but models insist partial clearing taking place ahead of the front by early afternoon. If clearing occurs, models are likely under doing surface temps and mixing which could lead to temps reaching into the middle 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s (instead of mid 60s like some models depict). If this were to occur, mixed layer instability of 1500 j/kg is possible, which modified soundings indicate would be sufficient to scrape by a mid-level cap for convective initiation by 21z. The strength of the cap and mid-level dry air are also problematic as mid-level subsidence will be occurring behind a departing shortwave. Models frequently underdo the strength of the cap. However, convective allowing models (CAMS) appear to be indicating that the cap and mid-level RH of 40-50% will be sufficient to prevent widespread deep/severe convection from developing. Most CAMS show little in the way of thunderstorm redevelopment on Saturday afternoon and precip amounts have trended down over the past 24 hours. That said, it's hard to ignore the prospects of destabilization combined with effective shear values upwards of 40 kts due to strong winds through a deep layer. If storms develop, brief cyclonic curvature to the hodographs suggest discrete storms and all hazards would be possible including damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado or two in the late afternoon hours before wind fields become more unidirectional. But dry air entrainment and mid-level capping will likely make the threat of severe storms isolated in coverage, if at all. It appears the greatest risk will occur over and just west of the Fox Valley where the most solar insolation is likely to occur and further removed from a more stable marine layer near Lake Michigan. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Friday An active pattern containing a train of shortwaves and several accompanying rain/storm chances will persist through the duration of the extended. Main focus will be on excessive rainfall risk with a Sunday/Monday system trailing behind Saturday's cold front. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall associated with this system may result in localized flash flooding. Attention will then turn to a mid-week system that clips the upper Midwest, bringing additional storm chances to the forecast area. Saturday night through Monday... The severe weather threat should begin to wind down Saturday evening as the cold front drops to our south and encounters stable air near the lake. A brief lull in precip will then set in Saturday night before next chances for precip arrive Sunday morning. A southern stream trough will spin up a surface low over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles before trekking into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday morning. Rain is expected to arrive to the forecast area Sunday morning out ahead of the warm front as it lifts north before becoming more widespread through the afternoon and evening. Potential for severe weather doesn't look too impressive given a robust capping inversion and insufficient airmass recovery time after Saturday's system. Any storms that do pop up would likely be elevated in nature, with gusty winds and small hail the biggest threats. Current ensemble guidance currently seems to be targeting portions of central and north-central Wisconsin to receive the bulk of the rain (~0.6 to 1" 24-hour QPF). Given an open Gulf and 1 to 1.5" PWATs being ingested by the surface low, suspect that rainfall amounts may trend on the higher end of what is being shown. Tuesday through Wednesday... Better chances for thunderstorms look to arrive with a Tuesday/Wednesday system. Another piece of closed upper-level energy will ride the US/Canada border through the beginning of the week, placing a surface low over Alberta that will skim the upper Midwest by Wednesday morning. Models are still struggling to resolve precip timing, but a broad overview seems to suggest that some convective elements (MUCAPE, low-level lapse rates, surface forcing due to cold FROPA) may come together enough to warrant thunderstorm potential. However, it is still too far out in the forecast period to ascertain storm severity. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A very dry airmass will prevent precipitation from arriving until mid afternoon over central Wisconsin to early evening over far northeast Wisconsin. Periods of showers remain expected to surge northeast across the region for most of the night. Some thunderstorms are possible during the late evening into the overnight hours. Highest probabilities for storms is over central Wisconsin. Breaks in the precipitation are then expected on Saturday morning. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate as a warm front lifts across the region tonight into Saturday morning. Widespread IFR and some LIFR ceilings are forecast late this evening into Saturday mid- morning. Vsbys may also fall to MVFR in the heavier showers or storms. LLWS is expected region-wide tonight and Saturday morning as robust low- level winds off the surface arrives atop of strong low-level inversion. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC/Goodin AVIATION.......MPC ####018005447#### FXUS64 KOUN 261917 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 217 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 There is a low chance that afternoon storm activity will continue this evening across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma. We should be quiet overnight as the next system begins to move closer to the southern Plains. Saturday is one of those days where it will be a great idea to remain weather aware for the ENTIRE day and evening, even if you wake up in the morning and it is cloudy (which it most likely will be for the entire day). We could see storms initiate as early as Saturday morning across portions of western north Texas, and move northeastward into central and north central Oklahoma. Initially, the thinking is that any stronger storms in the morning will have the potential to produce large hail and a few tornadoes if they can be surfaced-based. Continuous storms throughout the morning are very well in the realm of possibilities. Now, what will that do to the afternoon and evening set up? Well, truth be told, there is still uncertainty as to how much it will temper afternoon and evening convection, just given the parameter space. If western Oklahoma, especially along the dryline, can remain convection free until the afternoon, then storms that form along the dryline later in the afternoon and evening will pose the risk for significant severe weather. Meridional flow relative to the boundary will support storm interaction, which will limit discrete storms. Nevertheless, with sufficient deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates supporting MLCAPE of up to 3500 J/kg, and low-level curvature of the hodograph, any stronger storm could produce very large hail (up to baseballs) and intense tornadoes. As the aforementioned trough overspread the Panhandles and western Oklahoma during the early evening, multiple storms are expected to initiate along the dryline and form into a line. This line will slowly move eastward and will affect much of the area overnight. At this point, damaging winds and tornadoes will be main threats, especially as a low-level jet ramps up after sunset. In addition to all of the severe weather...with there being multiple rounds of storms, a flooding threat is expected across portions of north central, central, and southern Oklahoma. Most locations will only see 2-3 inches, but there will be localized areas that could see 4-6 inches of rain by Sunday morning. Please have multiple ways to receive warnings Saturday. Please have WEA turned on on your cellular device, and tell your family/friends who live across the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western north Texas to be weather aware the entire day! Have your plan in place now, it could save your life! Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Remnant portions of the QLCS will still be lingering by Sunday morning with damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding as the main threats. This will mainly impact portions of east central, south central, and southeastern Oklahoma. We could see some redevelopment Sunday afternoon across east central down to south central and southeast Oklahoma, especially if there are any remnant boundaries that linger from the morning convection. Nevertheless, severe storms are still possible in the afternoon, with hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Daily chances of thunderstorms are possible throughout the week, but any severe chances are uncertain at this time. A warm up is expected through the middle of the week before a cold front moves in during the latter part of the week and give us a brief cool down. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms across north central and northeast Texas will bring a continue chance of thunderstorms to the DUA terminal through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, drier air is expected to push into central parts of Oklahoma during the early to mid afternoon. This should help scattered MVFR ceilings at OKC/OUN/SWO. Surface winds will back late this afternoon and evening which will result MVFR ceilings developing this evening into the overnight hours. CSM/WWR should be the last sites to be impacted. Several models develop thunderstorms early Saturday across West Texas. Some of this activity may move across parts of western and central Oklahoma by 18Z Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 76 59 78 / 0 80 70 30 Hobart OK 60 79 55 81 / 10 70 40 10 Wichita Falls TX 66 78 57 81 / 10 80 70 10 Gage OK 55 85 51 79 / 0 30 10 10 Ponca City OK 65 80 59 79 / 0 80 70 40 Durant OK 68 81 62 77 / 10 70 90 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ020-025-026-028>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...06 ####018003768#### FXUS64 KAMA 261919 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Southwest winds are expected to pick up into the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts on Saturday as a surface low intensifies over southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas. The dryline is expected to push east to very near the Oklahoma state line by late in the afternoon. This dryline is expected to help thunderstorms fire by late afternoon. These storms, if they develop in our area, will quickly move east into Oklahoma. A cold front will then move across the Panhandles Saturday night and most of the area will be cooler by about 5 to 10 degrees on Sunday. An upper level low will move from Colorado on Saturday through Nebraska and into South Dakota by Sunday. A weak short wave may produce some showers in the Oklahoma Panhandle Sunday night. The flow aloft then becomes more zonal on Monday and Tuesday which will encourage lee-side cyclogenesis with southwest winds increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range by Tuesday. The southwest winds will help make Tuesday the warmest day of this forecast. The flow aloft then becomes more southwesterly by Wednesday ahead of a positively tilted upper trough moving southeast through the northern Rockies. Upper heights will also fall a little, so high temperatures may be just a shade cooler than Tuesday. A cold front moves through the Panhandles Wednesday night in association with our positively tilted trough moving into the Central High Plains. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across the eastern Panhandles Wednesday night into Thursday as a couple of short wave troughs move across in the southwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Gusty southwest winds will slow with the setting sun to 10 to 15 knots. Winds will then pick up again by mid morning. Skies are expected to remain VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A fire weather watch has been issued for all but the eastern column of counties in the Texas Panhandle for Saturday. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will overspread the area by mid day. Lowest relative humidity values are expected to be in the 10 to 15 percent range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 52 84 47 75 / 0 10 10 10 Boise City OK 45 73 40 69 / 0 10 10 10 Borger TX 54 84 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 51 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 50 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 52 82 49 78 / 0 10 10 0 Dalhart TX 44 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 48 79 42 73 / 0 0 10 10 Hereford TX 50 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 53 84 49 78 / 0 20 10 0 Pampa TX 53 82 48 77 / 0 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 51 84 51 79 / 0 20 10 0 Wellington TX 52 85 51 80 / 10 30 20 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ001>004-006>009-011>014-016>019-317. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...15