####018004428#### FXUS65 KPSR 102249 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 348 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures will be common across the region over the next several days with some locations flirting with record highs heading into the end of the week. - Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail for at least the next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Current upper-air analysis shows unseasonably strong high pressure dominating over the southwestern CONUS, pushing any significant weather well off to our north. This ridge will be the main feature for the region through the end of the work week with heights near or exceeding the 90th percentile (582-585 dm) for this time of year. The higher heights, indicative of warmer air throughout the atmospheric column, will translate to well above normal temperatures at the surface. In fact, the most recent trends have the ridge slightly stronger than previous model runs so forecasted temps have ticked up a bit for the next few days. Readings through the end of the work week for lower desert areas now look solidly in the middle 70s to lower 80s, with the upper end of that range now looking more common for Thursday and Friday. In response to this slightly warmer forecast, probabilities for record highs being reached or broken have gone up with Phoenix now having around a 50% chance of at least tying the Friday record high of 79 degrees set in 2010. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/... The weather pattern over the weekend and likely through most if not all of next week will continue to support ridging mostly dominating across the Southwestern U.S. The ridge to our west is expected to weaken over the weekend as one or two very weak shortwave troughs try to undercut or move into the ridge. These disturbances should lead to the ridge weakening or even pushing through and then to the east of our region by Sunday or Monday, but H5 heights are not expected to drop all that much. The near 80 degree daily highs are likely to persist through at least Saturday and maybe even Sunday before the lower heights bring highs more into a 74-77 degree range by early next week. The disruption of the ridge should also result in periods of higher level clouds moving through the region. Model guidance shows very good agreement in rebuilding the ridge again to our west by next Tuesday before moving back over our region by next Wednesday or Thursday. Both the GEFS and EPS show mean H5 heights staying between 579-582dm through all of next week which should keep daytime highs well into the 70s, but slightly cooler than what we will see over the next couple of days. Guidance shows no precipitation chances through next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2248Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather issues will exist through Thursday evening under clear skies. Wind tendencies will be very similar to the past 24 hours with only a brief late afternoon/early evening W/NW switch the Phoenix metro. Winds will tend to predominantly favor the W/NW trajectories across SE California. Extended periods of calm conditions will continue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 8-13 degrees above normal by the end of the week. A dry weather system toward the middle of next week may enhance winds. Otherwise, winds will remain light every day and follow diurnal tendencies. Humidities over the next week will stay above critical levels with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-25%, followed by good overnight recoveries to around 50-70%. && .CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs Phoenix ------- 12/11 81 (1977) 12/12 79 (2010) 12/13 82 (2010) 12/14 78 (2010) 12/15 79 (1969) && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman CLIMATE...Benedict ####018011038#### FXUS66 KPQR 102249 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 249 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Heavy rain from the atmospheric river has now shifted northward into northwest Washington. Light to moderate rain continues across southwest Washington and the north Oregon Coast Range, maintaining elevated river levels. Flood Warnings remain in effect for several rivers through the end of the week. Drier weather returns Friday to Saturday, with more rain and breezy winds returning by late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday...The atmospheric river that brought heavy rain and flooding impacts across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington the last couple days has now shifted northward. Most of the heavy rain is now falling over northwest Washington; however, we will continue to see light to moderate rain showers across southwest Washington and the north Oregon coast and Coast Range through Thursday. Observations as of early Wednesday afternoon showed rainfall rates of 0.10-0.25" per hour over the Willapa Hills and parts of Cowlitz County. Based on REFS guidance, there is high confidence (60-80% chance) that rainfall rates across southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon remain around 0.10" per hour or less through tomorrow, but there is still a 20-30% chance that rainfall rates of 0.25" per hour or greater occur over high terrain. If higher rainfall rates occur, creeks and rivers will be slower to subside. Elsewhere, most areas across northwest Oregon remain overcast and mostly dry with some isolated to scattered rain showers through Thursday. Snow levels still remain above 7000-8000 ft, so any precipitation in the Cascades should fall as rain except for the volcano peaks. Breezy south-southwesterly winds continue through this evening with gusts up to 20-30 mph for most areas. An exception would be for higher terrain and south Washington and north Oregon coasts where gusts could reach 30-40 mph, with a 30-50% chance that gusts exceed 40 mph through 10 PM. Winds will weaken overnight as pressure gradients gradually ease. Shower activity decreases Thursday night into Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a decent break from the rain with dry weather heading into the weekend. Some locations may start to see cloud breaks as early as Friday, but more widespread cloud breaks will occur on Saturday as the upper level ridge moves overhead. Will note that if any locations clear out of the clouds Friday night, there could be some morning fog or low stratus development Saturday morning. However, that should burn off by the late morning and early afternoon, making way for some brief sun! Wow, sun? What's that!? Don't know her. Emphasis on 'brief' though. Saturday night into Sunday, the next frontal system will move into the Pacific Northwest, returning clouds and chances for rain. Snow levels briefly fall to 6000-7000 feet, so it's still looking like rain will be falling at pass-level with this system. This upcoming front doesn't look too impactful and ensemble guidance keeps rain amounts generally light. NBM chances for 0.25" or rain or more in 24 hours ending 4 PM Sunday are 40-60% along the coast, Coast Range, and southwest Washington, and 10-25% across the Willamette Valley and north Oregon Cascades. Ensemble guidance is in agreement that a more impactful system will follow Monday to Tuesday, potentially bringing heavier rain and breezy winds. This is a warm system, so snow level will rise again above 7000-8000 feet. There is still some uncertainty with exactly how much rain we'll get, but current guidance suggests that the chances for 2" or more in 48 hours from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Wednesday are around 10-20% for interior lowland valleys and 40-70% across the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades, with the highest chances north of Lane County. Chances for maximum wind gusts of 45 mph or greater are also around 50-60% along the coast and 10-20% for interior lowland valleys. Considering how saturated our soils are, wind gusts of this magnitude along with additional rain would make trees more susceptible to falling. Local rivers and creeks will also have to be monitored closely with the upcoming rain given that we are just coming out of an atmospheric river that brought many rivers to flood stage. -10 && .AVIATION...Steady rain remains north of the area today however persistent low clouds and drizzle/light rain will continue to fall along the coast due to moist upslope flow, including KAST and KONP. Expect LIFR to IFR cigs cigs and/or visibilities to continue at the coast through 18z Thursday with continued drizzle/rain. Inland TAF sites will see a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs, with MVFR cigs being most predominant. Latest hi-res models indicate -shra to sag southward into the Portland area 05-06z and central Willamette 10-12z Thursday. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through 09-11z Thursday with wind gusts up to 20-30 kts. KPDX AND APPROACHES...The KPDX terminal will see a mix of MVFR to VFR cigs through 20z Thursday, with MVFR cigs being most predominant. Probabilities for cigs to become broken increase from 55% to 75% during this time. 30% chance for showers to return to the KPDX terminal 06-09z increasing to 70% 10-11z. Gusty south to southwest winds around 15 kts with gusts up to around 25 kts will continue through 11z Thursday then decreasing 15-18kts and below 15kts after 16z. -nws spokane && .MARINE...Seas remain around 10 to 12 ft at 12 to 13 seconds Wednesday afternoon, with southerly to southwesterly winds gusting up to 20-30 kt, except up to 35 kt over the inner waters to the north of Cape Foulweather, including the Columbia River Bar. These gales will diminish by late this evening as winds decrease significantly overnight. However, seas remain hazardous to smaller crafts into early Thursday as a steep swell remains in the waters. The sea state will improve by Thursday evening as the westerly swell drops below 10 feet. The next concern will be Monday when a cold front traverses the coastal waters. The current forecast suggests wind gusts will peak between 35-40 kt, which seems reasonable given there is a 80-90% chance for gale force wind gusts over 34 kt during that time. While confidence is high gale force wind gusts or stronger will materialize, there is some uncertainty regarding how strong wind speeds will get. Currently there is a 30-40% chance storm force wind gusts over 48 kt occur with this frontal system, especially closer to shore. This means there is also uncertainty regarding how high wind waves will build, which will impact significant wave heights. There is currently a 50% chance seas will peak around 13-15 ft late Monday, and a 10% chance seas will peak near 20 ft. Suspect seas will peak closer to 15 ft if gale force wind gusts materialize, and close to 20 ft or higher if storm force wind gusts materialize. -23/Smith && .BEACH HAZARDS...A Coastal Flood Advisory for tidal overflow is now in effect for the south WA coast through 7 PM PST Wednesday to cover high tide early Wednesday morning and high tide Wednesday afternoon. The tidal gauge in Toke Point, WA shows the forecast total tide peaking near 9.5 ft at high tide early Wednesday morning, and again at high tide Wednesday afternoon. The Willapa River has fallen below 80% of flood flow, thus limiting the tidal overflow flooding threat where the Willapa River drains into the Willapa Bay. However, river levels remain near 80% of flood flow on the Naselle River near Naselle. This means the threat for tidal overflow flooding around high tide will be highest where the Naselle River drains into the Willapa Bay. In additional to the tidal overflow flood threat along the south WA coast, there remains an elevated threat for sneaker waves late Wednesday through Thursday along the entire coast. The swell period increases to around 14-15 seconds with swell heights around 9-11 ft, with swell heights and swell periods decreasing late Thursday night. This will create energetic waves that will present a moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, which are waves that can run significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock beachgoers off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children. -23 && .HYDROLOGY...Rain continues to persist across southwest Washington and the north Oregon Coast Range as of Wednesday afternoon and will continue through Thursday. This will maintain river flooding concerns as runoff from previous rainfall continues to work through the system. Flood Warnings remain in effect for four rivers: the Grays River at Covered Bridge near Rosburg, WA, the Cowlitz River at Kelso, WA, the Luckiamute River near Suver, OR, and the Pudding River at Aurora, OR. The Grays River remains at Moderate flood stage and the latest observations show the river level plateauing, which makes sense given that rain hasn't ended yet in that area. The Cowlitz River at Kelso is currently in Minor flood stage, but that is forecast to fall into Action stage this evening. The Luckiamute River is also in Minor flood stage, but continues to rise and hasn't crested yet. Meanwhile, the Pudding River is just now reaching Action stage and has not flooded yet. This river in particular is slower to respond in nature but is still forecast to reach Minor flood stage on Thursday. Hydrologic concerns will persist even as the weather begins to improve later today and Thursday, with several rivers remaining elevated late into the week given the amount of rain we've received the last few days. However, the threat of urban flooding is now over since rainfall rates have decreased across the area. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for WAZ201. PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-251-252. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Thursday for PZZ210-251-252. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Thursday for PZZ253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland