####018008442#### FXUS63 KDLH 171126 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog, occasionally become locally dense, is expected to dissipate after sunrise. Cloud cover will be increasing later this morning into the afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms arrive this afternoon and evening along a cold front. A few storms may be strong to severe, especially in the Brainerd Lakes area. Potential hazards include damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. - Dry and cooler weather is forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday, with additional rain chances and slightly warmer temps late in the workweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Mostly clear skies allowing for diurnal cooling combined with light winds has produced patchy fog early this morning. Visibility has been trending slightly lower since the previous discussion update, with isolated areas of 1/2 mile visibility occasionally occurring. Will continue to hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory this morning due to the dense fog coverage being too isolated and duration being too intermittent. Fog is still expected to dissipate just after sunrise this morning as diurnal heating begins. The forecast for this afternoon is still on track with the previous update. Timing for showers and thunderstorms developing along an approaching cold front is still expected to be the afternoon into the early evening, which will coincide with peak diurnal heating. The southwestern portion of the CWA remains under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) Outlook from SPC today, with a small northward expansion of the Marginal Risk occurring this morning. Potential severe hazards will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Following the cold frontal passage tonight, cooler temperatures filter into the CWA for Tuesday into Wednesday. Frost is not anticipated on Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, but expect chilly low temperatures in the 40s with a few upper 30s possible. The forecast for the latter half of the week remains on track since the previous forecast update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Plenty of clouds with a few embedded sprinkles is the story of this Sunday. Drier air is filtering in from the northwest with a surface high moving in from the west. Therefore, expect gradually clearing skies this afternoon and mostly clear skies overnight. We will probably get some fog to develop with good radiational cooling conditions. Models are pretty solid on having fog in the usual low-lying inland areas. The probability for visibilities less than 1 mile are generally 20% or less, so we will probably see some patchy dense fog, but perhaps not enough coverage to warrant any Dense Fog Advisories. Expect fog to lift/mix out just after sunrise Monday morning. Monday afternoon into Monday night, another cold front is expected to make its way through from northwest to southeast. We'll have sufficient moisture for some thunderstorms with PWATs in the 1-1.5" range. Good synoptic support for lift with the front itself and an upper-level trough aloft. Convective parameters are so-so for any strong/severe storms. The timing of this has trended earlier such that we may catch the peak diurnal heating Monday afternoon and end up with ~1000 J/kg or so of MUCAPE, at least in northeast Minnesota. Not much for low-level directional shear with southwest flow expected ahead of the front. Some drier air aloft ahead of the front could produce a small risk for strong wind gusts. All said, we'll be looking at widespread showers and storms likely Monday afternoon and night, generally weakening a bit as they move into northwest Wisconsin. A few storms could be on the strong side with some small hail and gusty winds, and a stray severe storm can't be ruled out with low-end strong winds or quarter size hail being the main threats. Expect the front to be out of here Tuesday morning, leaving us with northwest flow and some slightly cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s). Tuesday night might be on the chilly side with lows in the 40s likely and perhaps some stray upper 30s not out of the question for the usual cold spots. High pressure sticks around into Wednesday, keeping the weather quiet. Southerly return flow will likely develop Thursday, and we'll be watching for another cold front to be making its way here by around Friday. We could see another round of showers and storms with this. At this time, convective parameters look rather dull for anything strong/severe, but that could change. The pattern is looking very pre-fall next weekend with northwest flow following the cold front. Some lingering instability showers can't be ruled out Saturday, but otherwise the weather looks pretty quiet. One might be tempted to call this fall-like weather, but with temperatures still looking to be in the 70s to around 80 for highs, it should still be feeling more like late-summer weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Patchy fog will be clearing over the next couple hours as daytime heating begins and west-southwest winds increase. A cold front will be sweeping through this afternoon and evening, bringing a line of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may become strong, especially around the Brainerd Lakes, capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. After the rain exits tonight, another round of patchy fog will be possible as winds ease overnight. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Breezy southwest winds ahead of a cold front are expected this afternoon along the North Shore. The Small Craft Advisory that was in effect from Grand Marais to Grand Portage has been expanded to now include nearshore waters from Grand Marais to Silver Bay, as there is the potential for wind gusts to 25 knots for several hours this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms arrive along the aforementioned cold front this afternoon and evening, although severe thunderstorms are not expected. Expect winds to shift to the northwest tonight following the cold front, with winds generally trending lighter heading into mid-week as high pressure builds. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Clear skies will start off today, with southwest winds gusting 15 to 20 mph this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect cloud cover to increase from west to east through the day, with northwest WI seeing the driest min RH this afternoon in the 33-39% range due to clouds not arriving until later in the day. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be moving through this afternoon and evening, with wetting rains of 0.25" or greater being hit or miss under individual thunderstorm cores. A few storms may become strong to severe, especially in north-central MN, with gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to 1" in diameter being primary hazards. Winds shift to the northwest tonight and high pressure builds on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures and drier min RH for mid-week. While critically dry min RH is not anticipated at this time, areas of min RH as low as 30% will be possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive late Thursday into Friday as another cold front moves into the area. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142. && $$ UPDATE...Unruh DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...Unruh MARINE...Unruh FIRE WEATHER...Unruh ####018004552#### FXUS66 KOTX 171127 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 427 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Building high pressure will lead to diminishing mountain showers and thunderstorms. - Warm, dry conditions for the midweek. - Weekend system brings thunder threats and gusty winds increasing fire concerns. && .SYNOPSIS... Afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorm threat continues for Monday with smaller area coverage. Temperatures trend warmer. A drier airmass moves in by the middle of next week. pattern change at the end of the week will bring cooler, breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The ridge continues to build into the Pacific Northwest. It will keep most of the region under a dry, warming trend that will extend into the much of week. Lingering residual moisture and instability will bring weak convection during the afternoon and early evening hours. Shower and thunderstorm chances are less than the previous weekends. Best chances (10-15%) will be over the mountain areas of the region specifically along the Canadian Border and the Blues Mountains during the afternoon and early evening hours. Basin is not expected to see much in the showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with less cloud cover expected. Temperatures expected to reach into the 80s to low 90s. Tuesday through Thursday: With the ridge expected through the the middle of week, any chances of precip will diminish through the period. The only chances (less than 10%) will come from weak waves moving North to South along a deep trough East of the Continental Divide. Ensembles are showing very little moisture associated with these waves as the clip Northeast WA and the Idaho Panhandle. Temperatures will continue to the climb a degree or two each day. Highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s. Friday through Sunday: Pattern change expected by the end of the week, as ridge slides East and a Low pushes into the Pacific Northwest. It will swing a cold front through the region late Friday and Saturday For now, it will lead to increased precip chances mainly over the mountains. Elevated fire concerns are possible Saturday as winds will be sustained 10 to 25 mph range with gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range. We will definitely be keeping an eye as this time approaches. Temperatures will be on a cooler trend as Saturdays highs will be in the 80s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hour TAF period with isolated MVFR vis/cigs due to smoke. Confidence in visibility impacts is too low at this time to bring TAF visibilities lower than 6SM for all terminals apart from EAT. Smoke models keep EAT at MVFR for portions of the TAF period from the Little Giant Fire. EAT can expect MVFR conditions late morning/early afternoon as winds shift northwest and increase smoke in the area. Winds will be mostly light. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in MVFR for EAT due to smoke. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 90 59 88 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 89 59 88 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 88 53 86 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 94 66 94 62 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 88 50 87 48 86 48 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 85 54 84 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 85 56 84 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 92 58 91 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 92 66 91 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 92 63 92 60 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Okanogan County, Chelan County, and Douglas County. ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis County and Nez Perce County. && $$ ####018005379#### FXUS62 KMFL 171127 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 727 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Near record temperatures expected today and Tuesday. - Unseasonably low RH values are expected over interior South FL today and Tuesday which may result in an elevated fire risk. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Surface high pressure will remain in control early this week, with upper level ridging across the region. Latest models show Saharan dust will linger across South FL, which will also help aid in the suppression of convection today and Tuesday. Outside of a few mid to late day showers and storms along the sea breeze in SE FL, most of the area will remain dry again today. High temps will near record territory today, with middle 90s across the metro, to upper 90s over the interior. Combine those temps with dewpoints in the 70s, and max heat indices will again be in the 105-110 range this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for all of South FL from 11 AM to 7 PM this evening. Mostly clear and mild overnight, with low temps ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 closer to the coasts. On Tuesday a frontal boundary will slide from the TN valley to near the SE US coast. This will push some moisture further south down the peninsula by later in the day. Forecast soundings show PWAT values increasing to around 1.9 inches around the lake region, while remaining 1.6-1.7 inches over the far southern peninsula. With Saharan dust continuing to linger, expect another mostly dry day, however some scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into the early evening around the lake region. With winds likely to remain westerly across the east coast metro throughout much of the afternoon, temps will likely be several degrees higher on Tuesday, with mid to upper 90s in the metro. Record high temps will again be in jeopardy. Max heat indices will again reach 105-110, so additional heat headlines will likely be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Upper level ridging starts to break down across the region mid to late week as a trough starts to dig into the eastern US, and remains there through next weekend. Meanwhile, the higher Saharan dust concentrations will get shunted to our south. Low level moisture increases across the area with near normal PoPs (40-60%) returning to the forecast during the extended period. Convection will be primarily diurnally driven sea-breeze convection each day favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, with isolated coastal showers and storms overnight. Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal, with max heat indices each day continuing to flirt with advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals. L/V flow increases from the SE around 10kt after 15-16Z, except for westerly flow at APF with afternoon Gulf breezes. L/V flow returns after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Atlantic waters today, with west to northwesterly winds across the Gulf waters. Mostly flat seas around a foot or less. A brief period of cautionary winds are possible over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Hot and dry conditions will continue early this week across South FL. Min RH values over the Everglades will fall to around 40 percent today and some locations may fall into the upper 30 percent range on Tuesday. Despite light westerly winds, the seasonably low RH values combined with ongoing drought conditions may result in an elevated fire risk today and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Record high temperatures are possible early this week. Here are the current records for Monday and Tuesday: MON(YEAR) TUE(YEAR) MIA 96 (2022) 96 (2022) FLL 98 (1924) 98 (1921) DJT 97 (1938) 96 (2022) APF 97 (2001) 97 (2001) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 96 79 98 80 / 10 0 10 0 West Kendall 97 76 98 78 / 10 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 97 80 99 80 / 10 0 10 0 Homestead 95 77 97 77 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 95 79 97 80 / 10 0 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 97 80 98 81 / 10 0 10 10 Pembroke Pines 97 80 98 80 / 10 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 97 79 97 79 / 0 0 10 10 Boca Raton 95 79 95 79 / 10 0 10 10 Naples 92 78 91 80 / 0 0 0 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...17 ####018005269#### FXUS64 KMOB 171128 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 628 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Heat Advisory is in effect Monday afternoon into the evening for high heat indices up to 112. Additional heat advisories will likely be needed each day through much of the week. - A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida Panhandle beaches Monday, persisting through mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A few showers have developed over open Gulf waters. Have added to the grids. Otherwise, no updates needed. /16 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The ridge will continue over the area bringing very hot conditions. While under the upper ridge, we are under generally pretty weak northerly to northwesterly upper flow. The area also has decent moisture with near/above normal PWATs for this time of year with values of 1.9-2.2" through the end of the week. With the upper high to the west, this gives less subsidence over the area. A surface high pressure out over the Gulf provides light westerly to northwesterly flow through morning before the seabreeze advances inland through the afternoon and this general surface pattern lasts through most of the week. Isolated to scattered storms are expected each afternoon over much of the area into this week with some isolated storms over marine areas most mornings. Most of the convection will be driven by the sea breeze and any resultant outflow boundaries in the afternoon. We have plenty of moisture and instability, so any showers and thunderstorms that get organized enough will have the potential for strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall and lightning. The main impact through the period continues to be the heat. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area 11AM-8PM on Monday for heat index values up to 112. The heat headlines will most likely last through mid to late week. Daily high temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s for most inland areas and possibly reaching 100, especially in our southeast Mississippi counties. Afternoon dewpoints will be generally in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. This brings heat indices up to the 105- 112 range with some isolated areas briefly reaching up to 115, especially along the coast as the seabreeze advances inland. There continues be little overnight relief with low temperatures through late week only reaching down to the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Anybody outdoors should drink plenty of water, take breaks in A/C when possible, and monitor for signs of heat illness. The ridge does start breaking down towards the end of the week and into next weekend allowing the trough to move further down towards the area. This could help break the daily heat advisory pattern with max and min temps decreasing a few degrees and potentially bring more organized convection through the area if any waves can make it down here. This wouldn't be a full pattern change, but some slight relief after the extended heat over the last week. ...BEACH FORECAST... The rip current risk will increase to a moderate for Florida beaches Monday through Wednesday. The rip current risk remains low for Alabama beaches. Outside of any storms, surf heights remain generally 1-2 feet through the end of the week. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms are forming along several land breezes over the Gulf early this morning, then redevelop inland in the afternoon. Drops in conditions to low end MVFR along with locally strong winds are possible near the stronger storms. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 96 78 96 77 / 40 10 30 20 Pensacola 95 81 95 81 / 40 10 40 10 Destin 93 83 94 82 / 30 10 30 10 Evergreen 99 77 98 75 / 30 20 30 10 Waynesboro 99 77 100 74 / 40 20 30 20 Camden 98 77 97 73 / 20 20 20 10 Crestview 98 77 98 76 / 50 10 40 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...None. && $$