####018005433#### FXUS64 KSHV 091513 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 913 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Freezing fog and widespread frost will be the primary concerns for tonight along with some lingering low clouds that could impact lows. - The week ahead will be mostly dry with a steady warming trend through Thursday, followed by unseasonably mild temperatures into Saturday. - The next strong cold front will move through the area sometime this weekend, although there remains some uncertainty on timing and location. && .UPDATE... Issued at 906 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Dense Fog remains 1/4 mi for many areas west of I-49 where as we have added our western fringe and extended in time until 11a.m. Soundings have seen drying from top down over the last day or so and we should see great improvement in the erosion before lunch with clearing skies by mid afternoon. So we have lowered high temps for several locales 3-6 degrees, as this layer is a good 1000 feet based on an IFR airmet and cigs east of I-49. Better low level and sfc wind will also mix down into the layer by lunch time as well. The core of the cold air mass right along the MS River with 1026mb. Southerly winds on the back side will soon ensue. /24/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 The primary concern for the rest of the night will be the persistence of a low-level cloud deck, particularly across our Louisiana parishes, which has exhibited a recent westward expansion. This shallow cloud shield will critically influence overnight radiational cooling, leading to some stark temperature gradients across the area. Areas that have successfully cleared out are already experiencing temperatures in the low to mid-30s. In contrast, those lingering beneath the cloud cover are being insulated some, holding temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Based on this highly localized clearing, a widespread low of 30-35 degrees is in the forecast, though this may be too ambitious for some locations. Furthermore, the combination of light winds, and some low-level moisture, we are seeing the development of fog across portions of the area, mainly across far east Texas. Of particular concern is the potential for this fog to interact with the cold temperatures, leading to some instances of freezing fog in some locations. A more benign, widespread frost event is also expected for most of the region, higher chances for those that remain clear through the night. This pattern will necessitate a close monitoring of surface observations throughout the overnight hours for any advisories that might be needed. Beyond this, the mid-week period from Tuesday through Thursday appears comparatively tranquil, characterized by dry conditions and a welcome increase in diurnal temperatures. A weak, high- amplitude cold fronted will traverse the region between Wednesday and Thursday, but is expected to be largely moisture-starved and will only impart a negligible reduction in temperatures. The most significant forecast challenge will remain the timing and speed of the next cold front. Recent model runs have trended toward a slower progression, suggesting the frontal boundary may not begin its push until Saturday. This slower evolution implies a period of unseasonably mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday, with highs potentially reaching the 70s across the southern half of the area. A cooler and more seasonable air mass will filter into the region on Sunday and for the start of the week. Rain chances associated with this frontal passage will remain low and are expected to be primarily confined to the northeastern zones Saturday night into Sunday. The trend towards deceleration will be closely watched to fine-tune the weekend temperature and precipitation forecast. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 For the 09/12Z TAF update, IFR/LIFR vis/cigs with FG continues to overspread most of the local airspace, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory through 09/16Z. Skies will gradually clear to VFR vis/cigs through the rest of the period with light southerly winds. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 46 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 41 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 37 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 44 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 41 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 46 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 44 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 44 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ050-059- 070>072. LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for LAZ001>003- 010-011-017. OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for OKZ077. TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...16