####018003260#### FXUS65 KVEF 100706 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1206 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A building area of high pressure will result in hot temperatures and increasing Heat Risk through the end of the week * Tropical moisture may increase this weekend leading to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over portions of northwest Arizona. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday. High pressure builds over the western United States through the end of the week and surface temperatures will rise in response. High temperatures peak on Saturday between 5 and 10 degrees above normal for mid-June. For Las Vegas, this means afternoon highs in the upper 100s and morning lows in the low to mid 80s. A combination of hot daytime temperatures and warm overnight lows will bring widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk to most of the region, along with areas of Major (Level 3 of 4) to certain valleys, including Death Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and the Las Vegas Valley between Friday and Sunday. This level of heat will affect anyone without access to sufficient cooling and hydration, especially those spending time outdoors. Also tracking a plume of moisture originating from Tropical Storm Cristina and the remnants of Tropical Storm Boris. Ensembles indicate this moisture traveling up the Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest this weekend, driving PWATs to between 150 and 200 percent above normal for this time of year. This moisture may produce enough high cloud cover to help moderate temperatures. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either, especially over high terrain in northwestern Arizona. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...On Wednesday, expect thermally-induced late-afternoon gusts from the south-southwest between 15 and 20 kts, but otherwise light and diurnal wind trends. The exception will be early Thursday morning when a weak cold front will shift the wind direction from the north- northeast between 7 and 10 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover. Best chances of temperatures at or exceeding 100 degrees will be between 19 and 04Z, with a forecast high of 105. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect thermally-induced south-southwest winds Wednesday afternoon at Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites with gust speeds between 15 and 20 kts. KDAG will have breezy winds between 8 and 15 kts favoring diurnal directional trends. KBIH will be light and diurnal until after sunset on Wednesday when breezy north-northwest winds set up. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018009018#### FXUS61 KAKQ 100706 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 306 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms across the northern half of the area today with a Slight Risk over most of the region on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A bit warmer and more humid today with scattered showers/storms possible. 2) Hot and humid Thursday-Friday, along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms. 3) A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region. && .DISCUSSION... As of 305 AM EDT Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A bit warmer and more humid today with scattered showers/storms possible. High pressure remains centered well off the Southeast coast early this morning. Aloft, ridging will persist across the Gulf Coast eastward into the SE CONUS. A belt of stronger westerly flow will continue across the northern half of the area today, which will allow clouds and showers from decaying convection over the Midwest to creep into western portions of the area this morning. This potential complicates the temperature forecast as well as the possibility of renewed convective development later this afternoon. The latest guidance has trended toward weakening showers moving into the Piedmont around sunrise with associated clouds moving east and thinning by the afternoon hours. If a period of moderate to strong heating is realized, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the northern half of the area by mid to late afternoon into the evening. Some of these cells could be strong if enough instability is able to materialize with gusty winds the main threat. Given the above considerations, decided to knock a few degrees off the blended temperature guidance this afternoon, resulting in high temps in the mid to upper 80s (highest S where any potential showers/storms will not arrive until well after peak heating). Showers and storms linger near the coast late this evening with lows only falling into the low 70s overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid Thursday-Friday, along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Surface high pressure anchors offshore as an upper ridge builds across the Southeast Thu-Fri. The upper ridge will be centered south of the local area with stronger flow aloft impinging on the Mid- Atlantic, allowing for the potential for upper level disturbances to traverse the region and spark mainly diurnal chances for showers and storms. SPC has introduced a large Slight Risk (level 2/5) for strong to severe storms over most of the region on Thursday. Guidance shows a shortwave aloft translating eastward to our north on Thursday. A lee surface trough will also be in place across the region Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings show decently steep mid level lapse rates for this part of the country along with ample low level moisture. Deep layer shear appears to be the limiting factor for most of the area on Thursday but some robust pulse-type cells with gusty winds are certainly possible given the thermodynamic environment. Somewhat stronger shear is progged across the northern third of the CWA where the potential exists for more organized convective structures. The upper ridge amplifies to our south Thursday and Friday with neutral or slowly rising heights aloft. High temperatures likely rise into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon but cloud cover and continued chances for showers and storms lend some lingering uncertainty to the temperature forecast. Low level moisture is expected to tick up late this week which will result in the potential for heat index values to rise mainly into the 100-105 range Thursday and Friday, depending on coverage and timing of any convection or thicker cloud cover. Heat Advisories may be needed for at least some of the region. At this time, Friday has a slightly better chance for seeing dew pts mix down into the 60s across inland areas during peak heating hours. Additional showers and potential for strong storms continues Friday afternoon and evening as upper heights fall ahead of the next cold front approaching from the N. KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front crosses the area early Saturday, bringing drier, and somewhat cooler temperatures to the region. Latest guidance continues to depict the upper level ridge breaking down Friday night into the weekend as a strong upper trough/low gradually drifts E-SE from northern Ontario towards the St Lawrence Valley. While the airmass in the wake of the front will remain warm, the wind shift to N-NE should lead to cooler conditions Saturday, especially at the coast, along with lower dew pts area-wide. ECMWF ensemble and GEFS show the PWAT anomalies dropping to below normal before a modest return flow starts late Sunday into Monday ahead of another front. Latest guidance has backed off on the potential for showers or storms across the region on Saturday. Southerly winds return on Sunday with increasing low level moisture and the chance for diurnal showers and storms continuing into early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions continue to be favored overnight, though BKN-OVC high clouds persist. Closer to 12z, some potential exists for lowering CIGs as a batch of showers move in from the W. Model guidance varies with the placement of these lower clouds (and showers), but episodic MVFR is possible in the Piedmont and potentially near RIC and/or SBY in the 12-17z timeframe. Morning showers would generally be favored at RIC and SBY before a lull arrives in the afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR is expected this afternoon and evening, though another round of showers, with a better chance of storms, is possible in the late afternoon and evening. Have PROB30 groups at SBY, RIC, ORF, and PHF for locally reduced VSBY and CIGs, generally after 21z. Winds average 5-10 kt out of the S/SSE this morning, shifting to the SW with gusts to ~20 kt tomorrow afternoon. Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions Thu-Fri, but with a chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms. A few stronger storms are also possible. A weakening cold front slowly approaches from the NW Friday and Saturday with a chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms continuing SE (with lower coverage to the N for the weekend). && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - A period of elevated southerly flow continues into tonight. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal waters from late this afternoon into tonight. - Another period of elevated southerly winds is possible late Sunday into Sunday night. - There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches. Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure offshore with S winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the coastal waters late this afternoon into tonight, becoming SW late. This will allow for seas to build to 4-5 ft across the coastal waters. As such, SCAs have been expanded to include all of the coastal waters. However, will note that SCA conditions appear to be more marginal across the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. While a brief increase in SW winds to 15-17 kt with gusts up to 20 kt is possible across the Lower Ches Bay this evening into tonight, confidence in sustained 18 kt winds and SCA conditions remains too low for SCAs at this time (winds probs for 18 kt sustained winds were only 20-25%). Winds and seas diminish Thu with generally benign marine conditions (outside of any convection) likely from Thu into Sun. Another period of elevated S winds is possible from late Sun into Sun night. There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area beaches. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: - Date: Thu 6/11 Fri 6/12 - ORF: 98 (1911) 99 (1986) - RIC: 97 (1984) 100 (1914) - SBY: 96 (1914) 98 (1914) - ECG: 99 (1947) 97 (1947) Record High Min Temperatures: - Date: Thu 6/11 Fri 6/12 - ORF: 75 (2020) 76 (2016) - RIC: 75 (1914) 74 (1986) - SBY: 73 (2013) 75 (1947) - ECG: 75 (2020) 76 (2016) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR AVIATION...RHR MARINE...RMM CLIMATE...LKB ####018009772#### FXUS63 KJKL 100708 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 308 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through this morning, especially northeast of US-421. Slow storm motions and a very moist atmosphere will support torrential downpours and a flash flood risk. - Lower rain chances and more sun on Thursday will only serve to make things more uncomfortable, with maximum heat indices of 95 to 100 for most places. - A cold front brings widespread rain back to the region on Friday, with a risk of strong storms and heavy rainfall. - Somewhat drier air arrives for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026 Muggy and mild conditions persist early this morning across eastern Kentucky with just varying amounts of cloud cover at most locations and patchy fog for others. Temperatures range in the upper 60s to mid 70s, generally at or within a few degrees of the sticky dew points. Regional radar mosaic imagery shows relatively disorganized convection from a remnant MCS extending from Lexington-Mount Sterling northward to Lake Erie, just ahead of a modest 500 hPa vort max and subtle shortwave trough. This is all embedded within a mean ridge over the Eastern CONUS while troughing is amplifying over much of the Western CONUS. Across the Ohio Valley under the aforementioned ridge, PWATs remain near climatological maximums between 1.6 and 1.8 inches across the JKL CWA and are locally over 2.0 inches further north in the vicinity of the MCS remnants. Through the remainder of the morning, model guidance suggests that the MCS remnants and upper level vort max will gradually settle ESE toward the Central Appalachians. Convective coverage and intensity remains a question as overall forcing and elevated instability is rather weak; however, the RAP13 and other guidance does support moderate to strong moisture transport with a low-level 850 hPa jet max of 30 to 35 knots to pass over the northern half of the CWA through daybreak before weakening. If convection is able to maintain, conditions remain favorable for efficient warm rainfall processes amidst skinny CAPE and a highly saturated environment, yielding torrential downpours. Weak Corfidi upshear vectors also suggest the potential for backbuilding as well. This being the case, this system will need to continue to be monitored throughout the morning hours for any significant renewed convective development, strengthening and training rainfall. The Flood Watch remains in effect for much of eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the morning. Once that vort max dives into Virginia and West Virginia by around 14Z, lingering convection will be more sparse as shortwave ridging follows the trough. However, there will still be a few subtle perturbations in the upper levels and they might still be able to spark isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for the afternoon. For this evening and tonight, Eastern Kentucky will be on the northwestern fringe of a surface high pressure over the Southeast CONUS, which should lead to fair skies and radiative conditions favorable for fog formation in the typically favored river valley locales. Looking ahead to Thursday, the warmest temperatures of the new week are expected across the area as 850 hPa temperatures climb to 19-20C. This should support daily maximums not far from 90F, coming within a couple degrees of the days daily record highs. Another vort max dropping from Ohio into West Virginia will brush the northeastern half of the CWA through the day, likely leading to a period of greater cloud cover and low chances for convection (isolated to perhaps scattered at best). The shading from the increased cloud cover plus any precipitation also lend credence to the idea that temperatures will remain below the daily records. In sensible weather terms, the very warm and muggy weather pattern will continue through the short-term period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be most prevalent this morning, primarily northeast of US-421. Some of this activity could produce torrential downpours and the possibility of flooding where rainfall is most persistent. Rain chances diminish and depart during the afternoon, leaving increasing amounts of sunshine and sultry highs in the mid 80s for most. For tonight, it will be partly cloudy and continued muggy with lows ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Looking ahead to Thursday, it will be a little hotter with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F. A few widely scattered or isolated thunderstorms are possible as well primarily east of I-75, but even so most locations should stay rain-free. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 333 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026 The forecast period will begin with the area positioned within the warm sector of a surface wave migrating through central Canada. The upper-level trough and its associated surface low are forecast to eject northeastward through the day Wednesday, slowly meandering eastward. By the start of the extended period, the center of the low will remain in Canada, while its associated cold and warm fronts will extend into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, respectively. This synoptic setup places the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Consequently, this will bring an increasing 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday, primarily focusing across the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. As instability wanes toward the evening, thunderstorm activity will decrease, giving way to partly cloudy skies. Areas that receive rainfall and clearing skies could experience locally dense river valley fog through Friday morning. Temperatures within the warm sector are projected to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, before dipping into the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight. Friday brings the approach of the cold front along with heightened chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Probability of precipitation maximizes at 80% across much of the area. Forecast soundings ahead of Fridays cold front indicate that a potent thermodynamic environment could exist. Although forecast vertical wind shear values remain meager, steep lapse rates combined with both MUCAPE and MLCAPE exceeding 2,500 J/kg will be present. Furthermore, DCAPE approaching 900 J/kg points toward a pulse thunderstorm environment capable of producing gusty outflows. Precipitable water values approaching 1.90 inches also lend credit to heavy rainfall potential. This combination of factors has prompted a Day 4 SPC 15% severe weather outlook alongside a Day 4 WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Once frontal passage occurs, skies will clear and weak surface high pressure will build into the area by early Saturday morning. Pre-frontal daytime temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, but weak CAA behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid-60s Friday night. Surface high pressure will firmly build into the region behind the front for Saturday into very early Sunday. Daytime highs are forecast to start in the low to mid-80s on Saturday, climbing a few degrees higher by Sunday, while overnight lows range from the low to mid-60s each night. Unfortunately, this weak surface high pressure will be pushed out of the area late Saturday night as a secondary cold front drops southeastward into the region. This next system will bring increasing shower and storm chances beginning Sunday morning and persisting through the end of the period. Under the influence of these persistent rain chances and subsequent cloud cover, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be notably cooler, averaging about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday and Sunday. The area will experience warm temperatures and a few storms on Thursday before a strong cold front arrives on Friday, bringing a high chance of heavy rain and strong, gusty thunderstorms. High pressure will bring a brief stretch of dry and pleasant weather for most of the weekend. However, a second cold front will move into the region late Saturday night, causing rain chances to return on Sunday and bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026 Conditions were mostly VFR at the start of the period, with some spots of MVFR in patchy fog. More widespread and substantial flight category reductions are expected to arrive from the northwest over the next several hours, especially for terminals north and east of JKL as remnants of an MCS move in. Confidence in timing and spatial extent of the coverage is medium at best and that is reflected by plenty of PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAFs. Quieter weather arrives during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Sustained winds will be less than 10 kts through the period, though a few brief gusts to between 10 and 20 kts possible during the daylight hours on Wednesday. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-112-114-116. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...GEERTSON