####018006181#### FXUS64 KSHV 240920 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Warm start for us ranging in the 60s under a blanket of stratocu over much of our Four-State area at 5-7kft. This is the wild card as it has wheels with scattering back edge crossing I-30 now. This will likely affect our usual morning low cloud routine. There is a little scattering in the wake of the upper deck over NE TX and SE OK in the 2-3kft range. More of this lower deck may bloom around daybreak through mid morning or we may just see some light fog develop with widely varied spreads of just a few degrees in some locales, but many with 5-10 degrees spreads out there too, where the low clouds are more likely than any light fog. Surface winds are light SW with our KSHV VAD indicating S/SW at 25-30KT for the first couple of thousand feet. This will mix down quicker minus the clouds and temps could easily bust our high temp forecast, but as it stands we are going warmer than any guidance just based on yesterday's numbers. This upper deck of low clouds first emerged from late day TX dry line based convection with some subsident air in the wake of over N TX seen on water vapor fairly well. So how does all this work out if the HRRR is right with popping some showers right in the heart of the ArkLaTex in the next few hours. Good question. Afternoon heating will likely have at it too with a weak frontal boundary over E OK and W AR where 50 degree dew points are sinking our way. The WPC even has QPF down over our Parishes later today and early this evening with this first push. So we are pretty much lower 80s today and cooler low to mid 60s tomorrow morning as skies may end up fairer by this evening. The bigger bust comes if they all go fast with SW winds and perhaps even a touch of compressional heating, mid 80s may arise starting this warm. However, we should see some light E/NE dropping over AR into N LA and with that we have capped highs in the upper 70s there. The models are running much drier tomorrow as this push today will wash away in the prevailing southerly winds. At some point our surface winds are going to back to S/SE and become more gusty ahead of the next gradient push for the early long term. So suffice it to say, challenging day ahead from right now. In the absence of rain clouds tomorrow will warm in the low to mid 80s as planned. The SPC has a General Risk for us today and the day 2 persist the same, but edges a Marginal Risk in late from the west associated with the second Friday push. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Lows will continue to warm for our late work week with 60s becoming lower 70s as the muggy air piles in off the Gulf. Isolated activity may be possible late tomorrow and then should be content to wait over N TX and OK/AR primarily, before pushing into our cwa again early on Friday. The SPC day 3 covers up our NW third of SE OK/NE TX and SW AR with a Slight Risk, so spotters get ready at that time late on Friday and overnight as well. The medium range models all agree on the greatest coverage linked to the intensity with little to none on this second push for our LA Parishes. As mentioned yesterday, the upper ridging we have now will drift eastward and build, acting to block the Westerlies until the third push arrives late in the weekend and early next week. No surface highs involved until late Monday with a 1015mb over the middle MS River valley, but perhaps some good cool pooling pushing if the likely slow moving storms can set it up. The upper levels are all in very good agreement on the two core lows peeling off the front range in the coming days. Each one will push on the east coast upper ridging this weekend. The third bigger push comes in much farther south over the SW U.S., but still tracks over the central and high plains as the ridge holds on for us until late Sunday and Monday QPF signal-wise. The SPC day 6 outlook has most of our cwa in the Slight Risk hatching. So we will see more rain, but not everywhere with this weak but effective blocking pattern unfolding. The surface high to our north will build to 1020mb by midnight on Monday night and then the models just wash the boundary out over our northern half Tuesday into Wednesday. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 For the 24/06Z TAF period, MVFR to low VFR cigs are currently observed across our airspace with further deterioration to low MVFR/IFR at most terminals as daybreak approaches. This is due to increasing low-level moisture pooling ahead of a weak cold front to our north across central OK/AR. Expect light southerly winds to prevail through much of the period, becoming variable across our NE terminals as the frontal boundary attempts to backdoor south into our airspace. Cigs should slowly improve back to low VFR or possibly higher end MVFR across our northern sites depending on exactly how far south the front manages to get before stalling. Some patchy fog may also limit vsbys briefly this morning, and will monitor for isolated convection along the front with TEMPO SHRA/TSRA conditions possible late in the period at KTXK/KELD. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 82 66 86 71 / 20 20 10 0 MLU 80 64 84 67 / 30 10 10 0 DEQ 79 64 81 66 / 40 40 30 10 TXK 80 64 82 69 / 30 20 20 0 ELD 78 61 82 66 / 30 20 10 0 TYR 82 66 83 71 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 82 65 84 69 / 20 20 10 0 LFK 83 65 85 69 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19 ####018006821#### FXUS63 KMKX 240920 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freeze Watch later tonight into early Thursday morning for below freezing temperatures. - Active pattern Friday through this weekend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall. The severe storm risk is more uncertain, but bears monitoring. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Today through Thursday: Low clouds continue to push southward through the area early this morning, with lake effect clouds over Lake Michigan. These clouds should gradually shift southward into this morning, but may linger in southern and eastern parts of the area, before exiting to the southeast this afternoon. These clouds and the northeast winds may limit temperatures from falling to and below freezing early this morning, so not anticipating enough of a risk for frost or below freezing temperatures for a frost/freeze headline. High pressure will shift to the east of the region today into Thursday, bringing quiet weather. Northeast winds will gradually weaken today, with light winds this afternoon and tonight. Relative humidity values this afternoon and Thursday afternoon will be very low, in the 20 to 30 percent range away from Lake Michigan. See Fire Weather section below for more details. Highs in the 40s near the lake and middle 50s well inland are expected, as skies gradually clear out. Highs Thursday should rise into the lower 60s well inland, with upper 40s to 50s near the lake. Light winds and generally clear skies tonight should allow for radiational cooling to set up over the area. Lows are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30 over most of the area. The signal for these temperatures has been consistent over the past few days, and the NBM 90th percentile for low temperatures is around freezing for most of the area. So, enough confidence to issue a Freeze Watch for later tonight into early Thursday morning for the entire area. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Thursday night through Tuesday: Models and ensembles continue to show good confidence with an active weather period Friday through the upcoming weekend. It appears that two low pressure systems may shift northeast through the region. The first one shifts from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday, with the second one taking perhaps a little more southerly path as it shifts northeast through the region Sunday into Monday. Southwesterly flow at 500 mb lingers during this period, with a general ridge over the eastern part of the country and a trough over the west. The low level jet should help transport moisture into the region by later Friday and into Saturday, with warm air advection bringing warmer air by Saturday. Temperatures may rise well into the 70s on Saturday, as we get into the warm sector with more humid air and southwest winds. It seems that more elevated storms could occur with the warm frontal passage later Friday and Friday night, though the dry southeast flow ahead of it may hold back the advance of the precipitation to Friday night. Saturday into Sunday night may be the better potential for stronger thunderstorms, if any surface boundaries can tap into the warm, moist and unstable airmass. Details are still in question this far out, so keep up with the forecast. It also looks to be a wet period, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Most ensemble members have rainfall during the Friday night into Sunday night period, and some could be locally heavy with the rounds of convection. Another thing to watch as we get closer. Above normal temperatures look to linger into at least early next week. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Low clouds with ceilings of 2000 to 2500 feet AGL will slowly shift southward and linger, before exiting to the southeast this afternoon. Gusty northeast winds early this morning will gradually weaken, becoming light this afternoon and tonight. Mostly clear skies should then occur tonight into Thursday. Winds will become southeast on Thursday and remain light. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 North gales should gradually subside early this morning over the south half of Lake Michigan, and a Gale Warning remains in effect until 7 AM CDT. High waves should linger into this morning. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM CDT this evening for the nearshore waters, for gusty northeast winds into this morning and high waves into early this evening. Winds and waves will gradually lighten up today into Thursday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves southeast across the region. South winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty through the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move northeast through the region. There will be additional chances for gales at times Friday night into Saturday across the open waters. Building waves are expected as well. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over the nearshore waters from Friday through the upcoming weekend, with the gusty winds and building waves. Wood && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Northeast winds will gradually weaken today, with light winds this afternoon and tonight. Winds will shift to the southeast on Thursday and remain light. Relative humidity values this afternoon and Thursday afternoon will be very low, in the 20 to 30 percent range away from Lake Michigan. Mixing heights will be above 2000 feet AGL each afternoon, with smoke dispersal values only in the fair category today and fair to good Thursday well inland from Lake Michigan. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...midnight Thursday to 8 AM Thursday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777- LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 AM Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Wednesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018004348#### FXUS63 KFGF 240922 AAA AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 420 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...Updated... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening for northwest and west central Minnesota - Rainy weather Friday to Sunday. 30-50% chance for more than 1 inch in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota over the 3 day period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 High pressure will be over the Red River valley this morning moving east thru the day. Light/variable wind to start today, becoming south-southwest 5 to 10 mph this afternoon as the high moves east. Expect full sun today. NBM 4.1 has been running 2-3 degrees too cool the past few days on highs, and thus WFO ABR coordinated a rise in temps using NBM 50th percentile for highs today. Thus made temps reach the low 60s in NW/WC Minnesota to mid 60s RRV and eastern ND. Dry airmass in place, so looking at min RH values in the 21-26 percent range all areas. Mixing of dry air aloft to the sfc may well send the RH values into the teens in some areas. Winds are light enough, so no critical fire weather conditions will occur, but low enough RH values will exist for near critical fire weather conditions in NW/WC MN with SPS being issued based on what MIFC (Minnesota Interagency Fire Center) would like in the early greenup phase. Tonight into Thursday will see south-southeast winds increase in speed and tonight will be a much milder night with all areas well above freezing for lows and highs Thursday upper 60s to mid 70s (using NBM/NBM50 blend per collaboration). Dew points were left along and used NBM4.1 and with the increased in moisture just enough to prevent RH from falling into the critical fire weather range (20-25 pct). Winds will be there as tight pressure gradient develops and 925 mb winds 30-35 kts should ensure a windy day...with the Red River valley seeing a favorable south- southeast wind that may push winds into advisory range. Scattered high clouds Thursday, increasing clouds Thursday night into Friday ahead of 500 mb wave and sfc low that will be near Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border at 12z Friday. Moisture feed spreads north with highest rain chances (70-90%) Friday afternoon and Friday night and slowly diminishing pops Saturday. Next 500 mb wave will take a similar track, though latest enembles indicate some differences in track with a more SE track into SE MN meaning main rainfall is SE ND/WC MN vs 00z operational runs of ECMWF/GFS taking upper low more into the Red River valley and NW MN 06z Mon period for more widespread rainfall chances. Probability of 1 inch or more of rainfall in the 72 hour period from 12z Fri to 12z Mon is 30-50% in SE ND/WC MN to around 10% along the Canadian border. Southwest flow aloft remains thru all of next week. Some low pops for showers exist Tue-Thu before next 500 mb wave moves into the Nevada and Idaho by 12z Fri of next week. Well beyond day 7 Ensembles indicate a more northerly position of upper low and a track more west and thus putting E ND/NW MN in the warm sector with potentially increased chances of thunderstorms. This is May 3rd/4th. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, though there is a chance (less than 20%) for low stratus and light ground fog to develop in the vicinity of KBJI before sunrise Wednesday morning. Surface ridging shifting east is already resulting in lighter winds with light and variable/calm winds through Wednesday morning sunrise. Winds eventually increase to the 7-11kt range from the south-southwest as surface low pressure builds to the west and a layer of 6-10 KFT AGL CU may develop during the midday/afternoon period (mainly in ND). Winds eventually shift to the southeast Wednesday evening to the 7-14kt range in eastern ND (highest near KDVL) as surface gradient increase. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...DJR ####018003818#### FXUS66 KOTX 240925 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 225 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mild and mostly dry weather continues with 60s and 70s through Wednesday. A cooling trend arrives late Wednesday into Thursday with breezy winds and increasing chances for rains. Unsettled weather continues late through the weekend and early next week with better chances for precipitation across the lowlands. && .DISCUSSION... Today will be mild but more cloudy with increasing chances for showers in the Cascades as an upper low in southern BC brings west flow aloft. A weak frontal passage this afternoon will pose a very slim risk of blowing dust on the Waterville Plateau but confidence is very low. There is a 50% chance of gusts 30 mph or greater in the afternoon hours which may create locally dusty conditions. Another wave off the WA coast brings an increasingly moist airmass to the INW Thursday. It will start off mostly dry in the morning thanks to shadowing but precip chances increase in the afternoon hours as the flow becomes increasingly south aloft. The wave slows down inland keeping precip chances into Friday with a conditionally unstable airmass. There still remains a slim chance (15%) of thunder in the northern mountains and the ID Panhandle. It is expected to bring a round of much needed showers to the Inland Northwest with most areas with at least a 30% probability of at least a tenth of an inch of precip. Higher terrains of the Cascades and northern mountains could receive near a quarter of an inch. The east slopes of the Cascades is expected to be impacted by the rain shadow effect and should receive less. The airmass is much cooler as well with highs staying in the 50s and low 60s both Thursday and Friday. Multiple impulses off a parent trough in the Gulf of Alaska bringing chances for mountain snow and valley rain. Flow orientation is split between north/west/south with each impulse which would greatly influence the amount of shadowing. /DB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Cirrus clouds will continue to stream into the region from the west ahead of an approaching dry cold front. Winds will begin to pick up around 18Z on Wednesday from the southwest with the passage of front. Precipitation is expected to remain west of the Cascades with flight conditions to remain VFR across eastern Washington and north Idaho. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions for all terminals through the TAF period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 41 59 43 55 41 / 0 0 10 70 70 20 Coeur d'Alene 63 40 57 43 52 41 / 0 0 20 70 80 30 Pullman 61 39 57 43 53 41 / 0 0 10 80 80 40 Lewiston 70 45 65 48 60 46 / 0 0 10 70 70 30 Colville 65 37 61 41 56 39 / 0 0 20 80 90 50 Sandpoint 63 41 55 43 51 41 / 0 0 30 70 90 50 Kellogg 62 42 54 45 51 43 / 0 0 40 70 90 50 Moses Lake 69 42 63 44 63 42 / 0 0 10 30 30 10 Wenatchee 65 44 60 46 61 44 / 0 0 20 20 20 10 Omak 68 41 63 45 61 43 / 0 0 10 60 50 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$