####018006425#### FXUS61 KPBZ 191020 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 620 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances return early this morning with a passing front, a few thunderstorms may occur. The potential for frost/freeze impacts increases Sunday and Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers with embedded thunderstorms will cross the region through the early afternoon. - Hazardous weather is not expected. ------------------------------------------------------------------ 620AM UPDATE.. Minor changes made to hourly temperatures and PoPs based on latest observational trends. AMDAR soundings show a significant amount of dry air from 700mb down, so current shower activity crossing the region should not result to much in the way of QPF, but a subtle cool down in temps and some momentary breezes as they cross. Although there is a non-zero probability of a few rumbles of thunder this morning, have removed thunderstorm mention from the forecast for the morning based on latest mesoanalysis. Previous discussion follows. PREVIOUS.. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will traverse the region through the early afternoon in association with a fast-moving shortwave exiting the base of the Central Plains trough. Precipitation will first cross ahead of a pre-frontal trough this morning, becoming less organized as it hits the drier airmass in place while seeing jet-aided ascent lift northward. The second round will be redevelopment during the afternoon along the surface cold front as it enters western PA and the higher terrain. Little to no instability and weaker forcing will keep hazardous weather at a minima with total accumulations less than 0.5" (~80% probability of not exceeding that amount). Temperature will fall toward seasonal average amid cold, dry advection behind the front and falling heights aloft as the upper trough axis approaches from the west. Dry conditions will develop shortly after the cold front, with the overnight period featuring dwindling cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slightly below average temperature and dry weather expected through the weekend. - Potential for frost and/or freeze impacts each of Saturday and Sunday mornings. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The Upper Ohio River Valley will be positioned underneath upper troughing Saturday, including passage of the trough axis during the afternoon hours. Its passage will push a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the region, ensuring area temperature falls a few degrees short of the daily average. Current coarser resolution models suggest minimal column moisture leading to a lack of precipitation chances with the frontal passage; however, hints from convective allowing models portray at least low- probability showers developing within the cold advection, NW flow wake (likely little to no QPF). Quasi-zonal flow will develop Saturday night into Sunday, maintaining dry conditions under the influence of surface high pressure and favoring slightly below average temperature. The key component for this period will be frost/freeze risk as the forecast area is well-within it growing period (save for Tucker County). Latest solutions suggest a more muted frost threat Saturday night due to slightly elevated winds disrupting frost formation; however, freeze remains a threat as portions of northwest PA exhibit a 40-70% chance for see temperature at or below freezing (though likely only for an hour or two near dawn). For Sunday night, the clearer skies and lighter winds of Sunday night better aligns with widespread frost potential; some height rises will temperature freeze potential (20-40%). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - The next low pressure system and associated precipitation chances is likely for late Tuesday into Wednesday. - Ridging is favored for the late week period, pointing to rising temperature heading into the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Though ensemble models vary in trough analysis moving across the southeast U.S. Monday, the outcome remains the same for the Upper Ohio River Valley: rising heights aloft and the influence of high pressure will support dry conditions and seasonable temperature Monday. There is fairly high consensus on the next upper level trough and associated surface low to drop from the north central plains through the Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the system, weak warm advection will support above normal temperature and increasing cloud cover before the systems arrival. Widespread showers and low probability thunderstorms are then likely as the system crosses the region. Depth of the upper trough remains the biggest uncertainty during this period, which will strongly influence the timing of precipitation passage and degree of cold advection behind the system. The late week period will be defined by the progression of the upper trough through the northeast CONUS and the rapidity of height rises in its wake. Dry weather will be favored given high confidence of surface high pressure, with temperature recovery in the post-cold front passage environment. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A front will cross from W-E from today, bringing relatively light showers, MVFR cigs, and a WSHFT from S to WNW. Cig restrictions will be slow to develop after precipitation onset with dry low level conditions. Improvement back to VFR is expected by evening with dry advection and a building surface ridge, though mid level cigs will continue under a broad upper trough. .Outlook... A ridge of high pressure at the surface will maintain VFR conditions into next week. Showers and potential restrictions return late Tuesday with an approaching cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frazier NEAR TERM...Frazier/88 SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...88 ####018003864#### FXUS65 KTFX 191020 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 420 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather is expected through tomorrow as temperatures begin to trend upwards over the next week. The exception to the upcoming tranquil weather pattern will be on Sunday, when a system passing to the north will brings few rain showers and gusty winds across North Central and Southwestern Montana. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: -Temperatures gradually warm through the middle of next week -Gusty winds expected Sunday, and a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Hi Line adjacent to Glacier National Park to Cut Bank Short Term (through Saturday)... Overall quiet weather is expected today and Saturday as upper level ridging across the Northern Rockies remains in place. Temperatures will be on the cool side again today with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s across the area under cloudy skies across the plains but mostly sunny skies across the southwestern valleys. These clouds will gradually erode away Friday evening, which will allow temperatures to once again fall into the teens and 20s for overnight lows Friday night/Saturday morning. Even with cold starting temperatures in the morning, temperatures should moderate nicely Saturday under sunny skies, with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 50s for most of the area. Extended (Sunday through next Friday)... A brief interruption in the tranquil weather is expected on Sunday as an upper level low pressure system pushes across Southern Alberta. As this upper level low passes by, strong westerly flow on the south side of this system will mix to the surface thanks to thermal mixing, which will result in a blustery day across the Rocky Mountain Front with sustained winds of up to 40-45 mph and wind gusts as high as 65-70 mph at times. With this in mind, I have gone ahead and issued a High Wind Watch for the Hi Line from Glacier National Park to Cut Bank, which is where the highest probabilities of high wind criteria winds currently exist. In addition to the winds, we will also see a few rain showers develop across the area, though any of these rain showers will not drop much in the way of meaningful precipitation. Behind this system, upper level ridging will return to the area through midweek, which will allow for tranquil weather and increasing temperatures across the area. However, as we move past midweek, a weak and broad upper level trough will push into the Northwestern CONUS, which will bring slightly cooler temperatures and some precipitation to the area to close out the work week. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 1155 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (19/06Z TAF Period) VFR conditions will prevail over the CWA through the period. A few isolated showers are diminishing over the Rocky Mountain Front currently. Other than some passing clouds, no significant aviation impacts are expected at this time. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 37 20 51 31 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 35 19 48 26 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 43 23 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 44 18 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 41 13 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 43 21 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 40 20 52 28 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 33 17 47 27 / 10 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018004825#### FXUS64 KMAF 191024 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 524 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 WV imagery shows a large trough centered over Ontario, and an open wave approaching the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front has banked up against the higher terrain, through which it will push by 12Z or so. Temperatures will be tricky today, with quite the spread on models/MOS numbers, with forecast highs at KMAF ranging anywhere from 57 on the MET/NAM to 70 on the MAV/GFS. W/the NAM handling cold fronts better than the ECMWF/GFS, and given abundant cloud cover forecast throughout the day, undercutting the NBM seems reasonable, and we've used the NBM25 to bring highs closer to the NAM. Early this morning, the NBM begins developing convection over the lwr Trans Pecos, and then west into the Big Bend Area/Presidio Valley as shortwaves move through southwest flow aloft, and interact w/the frontal boundary along the river. Tonight, surface winds will veer to easterly, advecting Gulf moisture to the west, and upslope flow will combine with the approaching west coast trough to increase POPs E-W, especially after 06Z Saturday. Mixing and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight minimums at or just above normal. Saturday, the west coast trough arrives, and models hint at a secondary front working its way into the area. This looks to be the best chance for precip this forecast, especially northeast. Unfortunately, this looks to be a high POP, low QPF event, which seems more typical as of late. But at this point, beggars can't be choosers, and we'll take what we can get. Temperatures Saturday afternoon should come in ~ 16-18F below normal. On the upside, this should be the coldest day this forecast, with warmer conditions to follow into the extended. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 The west coast trough continues to move east of the region on Sunday, thus ending rainfall for now. Temperatures remain well below normal across most of the region with 60s holding on due to continued cloud cover. Further southwest 70s and 80s return to these locations as filtered sunshine returns. The start of the new week sees a gradual building of the ridge once again. Temperatures increase back into the widespread 70s and 80s with the aide of return flow and mostly sunny skies on Monday. This warming continues into Tuesday with 80s for the majority and 90s along the river valleys as the low-level thermal ridge overspreads our area. A weak front and increased cloud cover may decrease the warm temperatures slightly by Wednesday but most remain in the 80s. The weak front may bring an isolated thunderstorm or two across the northeastern Permian Basin as well. By the end of next week, the very warm weather continues, 80s and 90s, while the dryline slowly backs up into eastern portions of the area. At the same time, our next weather system should begin to slide into the southwest US. This approaching system begins to increase thunderstorm chances once again across the eastern CWA along and east of the dryline. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Northeast to east surface winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Surface obs and sat imagery indicate a MVFR stratus deck has developed over most terminals as expected, and this will persist for a few more hours before lifting to VFR. Overcast VFR will persist through this evening, after which MVFR cigs are forecast to redevelop all terminals. Convection will be possible KMAF/KHOB near the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 50 57 44 / 10 70 100 60 Carlsbad 68 53 63 47 / 0 20 60 30 Dryden 78 62 74 52 / 30 50 90 60 Fort Stockton 71 57 69 47 / 30 50 90 50 Guadalupe Pass 67 52 64 44 / 0 10 40 10 Hobbs 60 47 56 42 / 10 50 90 30 Marfa 79 50 78 41 / 30 30 50 30 Midland Intl Airport 60 51 59 44 / 10 60 100 50 Odessa 61 53 59 45 / 10 60 90 50 Wink 66 54 65 47 / 10 40 80 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...44