####018004574#### FXUS65 KRIW 060430 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1030 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather through the weekend, with gusty winds (25 to 45 mph) and low humidity (7-12%). - Very hot Saturday, with highs in the low to mid-80s west of the Divide and mid 90s to near 100 degrees east of the Divide. - Scattered showers and storms Sunday, mainly north and west. - The overall trend next week looks to be windy, with temperatures closer to seasonal (70s to low-80s). There are also chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Looking at current satellite imagery, you'd be hard-pressed to find a cloud over the area as dry southwest flow persists. Though a few clouds will develop through the afternoon, the area remains dry today, with high temperatures still forecasted in the 80s to low 90s. The main weather story for today is elevated to near- critical fire weather, as widespread gusty winds of 20 to 35 mph occur, in conjunction with humidity values around and less than 10 percent. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The trough that has been lingering in the vicinity the past couple days is finally moving to the east, which will open the door for the next system to impact the NW Rockies. This system is just starting to drop down the West Coast, and will gradually buckle a ridge ahead of it across the Rockies during the next 48 hours. Today will start with flat ridging, with nearly clear skies and temperatures in the 70s and 80s. West winds will be lighter than yesterday, but a few gusts near 20 mph are possible across the usual areas of central WY. The ridge then starts to build in the vicinity tonight into Saturday, with increasing temperatures aloft. Still noting H7 temps of 16 to 19C, which translates to mid to upper 80s west of the Divide and into the 90s to the east. There remains an outside chance of triple digit readings, mainly on the open ranges of Johnson County and the lowest elevations of the Bighorn Basin. The placement of the ridge is centered on the Central Plains, so a weak impulse may nudge into the NW WY Parks during the afternoon, bringing some cloud cover and a shower or two, and will hold temps there down in the 70s. Saturday will also see increasing southwest winds ahead of the next system. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected across the state. This southwest flow will also be modified desert air, so humidity levels will be falling to 5 to 10 percent across a wide swath of the state. These will result in a near-critical fire weather day across the state. The ridge shifts to the east Saturday night, shifting the moisture tap from the southwest across a larger part of western WY. The first piece of the western trough races across the state, bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. The southwest flow will continue into the middle of next week, which is setting up as a pattern where daytime heating sparks showers and thunderstorms along the highest terrain in the afternoon, dissipating each evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period. Clouds will increase from the west-southwest, with SCT-BKN FL150-250 skies in place over western portions by 12Z. these clouds will then spread east of the Divide, becoming FEW-SCT by 18Z. Any convection Saturday afternoon will be very isolated, with KJAC and KCOD having the best chances. With that said, chances remain too low to include in a PROB30 group at this time. There is a chance for showers/thunderstorms to pass over KJAC at times between 00Z and 06Z, but again confidence remains too low to include in the forecast at this time. Wind gusts of 20 to 30kt will return between 17Z and 19Z for all terminals, decreasing again around 01Z/02Z with light winds (11kt or less) returning through the end of the forecast period. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ280. && $$ UPDATE...Wittmann DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...LaVoie ####018005134#### FXUS61 KBGM 060432 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1232 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly lowered temperatures for the next few days. The rest of the forecast package remains on track as newer high-resolution guidance is integrated into the chances for severe weather today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A system tracking to the north of the area will bring scattered rain showers and storms tomorrow. Main storm development expected in the afternoon and evening hours, with some morning daytime rain showers and an isolated storm or two. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather in the afternoon and evening as cold front moves through the area. 2) Another ridging pattern will develop across the central and eastern US. The ridge over the central US is not expected to build as high into Canada as this past week, allowing hot air to overrun the top of the ridge and spill onto the region by mid- week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave on the leading edge of an upper level trough will move into the area around sunrise, which should kick off scattered rain showers with an isolated storm or two mostly north of the Southern Tier, moving east of the area by mid-morning. A few isolated showers may remain over Central NY into the late morning hours. A cold front is forecast to enter into the area from the northwest starting in the early afternoon hours and slowly track to the southeast. This front will trigger scattered rain showers and strong to severe storms through the late evening hours as it slowly progresses through the region. We're seeing ingredients needed for severe weather develop align over the area today as the front moves through. Modeled parameters of up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE, with 30-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, and some decent mid-level lapse rates will allow for any storms that are triggered to become severe. However, the ongoing uncertainty of timing of the front is coming to a clearer consensus among models. If severe storms were to develop, the main threats include strong to damaging winds, as well as hail. Even with the potential for morning daytime convection and some scattered rain showers, there should be enough destabilization going into the afternoon hours to allow for a rather uncapped environment heading into the late afternoon/early evening hours, which the consensus for the surface front and trough axis to begin to track into our area, meaning any triggered storms could grow fast into strong to severe storms. Currently, the best chances for severe weather development would be from the Southern Tier south and east into NE PA and the Catskills. Given the likelihood for morning daytime convection and showers in Central NY, confidence for severe storms is a little lower, since this may decrease the time for destabilization for severe weather development. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another ridging pattern is expected to develop Sunday night through Monday, with northerly flow across the region between a ridge to the west and trough to the east keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area on Monday. The trough to our east will slide east Monday night, allowing the ridge axis to move over the region on Tuesday and southwest flow to return, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Hot temperatures are currently forecast to continue through the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. We may see some rain showers midweek as a trough tries to move in from the Great Lakes between the departing ridge and another ridge building in the central US, but guidance is too varied at this time for anything other than low confidence in rain showers developing. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions will be VFR through the early tomorrow morning. A round of showers will move across Central NY as early as 09z and are expected mainly at RME, SYR, and ITH. A passing shower or two cannot be ruled out at ELM and BGM. MVFR ceilings are expected at RME/SYR/ITH tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions hold a bit longer at ELM/BGM/AVP before showers settle in at the end of the TAF period. There is potential for thunderstorms at all sites late tomorrow afternoon heading into the early evening hours. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming southwesterly early Saturday morning. Winds will also pick up through the morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Outlook: Saturday night...Restrictions from showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Sunday...Mainly VFR; Lingering showers at Central NY terminals. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Low chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...BTL/ES ####018006479#### FXUS64 KOUN 060434 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Scattered storms this afternoon with a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and small hail. - Increasing rain and storm chances into the weekend. Storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns. - Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a potential for triple digit heat. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A shortwave is ejecting northward ahead of the upper low across Texas this morning and will approach Oklahoma this afternoon. Periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms are and will continue to move north across portions of south central into southeast Oklahoma this morning and afternoon. Morning low clouds across southern into central Oklahoma are beginning to break this morning with temperatures expected to warm near to above normal today in the 80s to lower 90s. Ample diurnal heating will allow for an uncapped environment this afternoon with enough buoyancy to support convective updraft development. Despite the approaching shortwave, flow aloft will remain weak and bulk shear will be very low. Similar to the past few days, storms that develop will have the potential to pulse up and down with a few isolated damaging winds and large hail at times. The corridor with the greatest chances for storms this afternoon and evening will be across western north Texas stretching into southwest Oklahoma and northeastward into north central Oklahoma. Most of these storms will be diurnally driven, but the increasing low-level jet could linger some of the showers and storms into late tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The upper low over northwest Mexico Friday will begin to lift northeastward towards the 100th meridian by Saturday morning. This will bring several rounds of showers and storms through the day Saturday into Sunday. The greatest chances for showers and storms Saturday morning will be across north Texas and into southern and central Oklahoma. A few of these morning storms could become strong to locally severe with damaging winds and large hail as the primary concern. Additional chances for showers and storms will increase northward across the area during the afternoon hours Saturday with storms being scattered in nature and may be focused towards lingering outflow boundaries from Friday night and Saturday morning's activity. An unstable environment with slight higher bulk shear (25-30 knots) than previous days will give way to strong to locally severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. By the afternoon hours, a surface low co-located with the upper low will approach western north Texas from the Southern High Plains. This surface low will bring yet another potential round of showers and storms across Oklahoma into early Saturday evening and overnight. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS into the late evening hours as they push eastward with the surface low. Increased surface vorticity around the low could increase the potential for low-level shear. Damaging winds will be the primary hazards into the late evening and overnight hours, but hail and a tornado or two may also be possible. PWATs are expected to be anywhere from 1.5-2 inches across the area, which will lead to a heavy rainfall, high rainfall rates, with any storms that develop throughout the day. With the scattered nature of storm development, flooding will heavily depend on areas with nearly stationary storms on boundaries or areas that receive several rounds of storms. The area with the higher probabilities for greater than at least 1-2 inches of rainfall will be across central into southern Oklahoma and north Texas. By Sunday, the precipitation chances will exit the area from west to east with the vacating upper low. Temperatures Saturday will be slightly cooler than previous days due to increased cloud cover and rain/storm chances, but highs will still likely warm into the 80s. Sunday, temperatures may warm back into the 90s across the west but remain slightly cooler in the east due to lingering precipitation and cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 After the upper low/trough move to the northeast late Sunday, upper ridging builds over the southern/central Plains and the upper flow retreats to the north. This shifts us back into a generally dry and warm pattern. The ECMWF produces some QPF Monday night in north central Oklahoma with the potential of storms moving in from Kansas, but otherwise the week looks dry. Temperatures will warm through the week as the ridge builds with triple digit highs returning to the west and the north central Oklahoma wheat belt. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The line of convection with locally heavy rainfall currently extends from Grady to Cotton to Wichita Counties and is slowly propagating eastward with time. Not expecting any severe storms tonight but could see some gusty winds. MVFR conditions are observed over portions of the area and expect this to increase in coverage into the morning hours, with a few hours of IFR conditions possible. Shower and storm chances continue through Saturday into Sunday evening with severe storm chances increasing in the afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 89 69 80 67 / 30 60 90 70 Hobart OK 92 67 83 65 / 30 90 70 50 Wichita Falls TX 90 67 85 66 / 30 90 80 80 Gage OK 93 68 83 62 / 10 20 50 40 Ponca City OK 90 71 79 67 / 20 30 80 80 Durant OK 85 71 83 72 / 40 80 90 80 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...01