####018004384#### FXUS65 KPSR 131055 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 355 AM MST Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain above normal for the week ahead with the lower desert communities nearing or exceeding 100 degrees most days. Dry conditions will persist with the usual late afternoon breeziness. An exception will be the higher elevations of northern and eastern Arizona which will see a few late day showers each day. These showers could be supportive of some erratic, gusty winds descending into the lower deserts each evening. && .DISCUSSION... Midday water vapor imagery showing upper level low circulation now into SE CO and continuing to move away from the region. Visible imagery still indicating some residual moisture over the high country back into central/eastern AZ with some cumulus forming. Could be a couple showers form in these areas later today, but isolated in coverage and no impact into the lower elevations. Otherwise, ensembles in overall good agreement with heights building slightly over the region into Monday, bringing with it another day of temperatures a few degrees warmer, with highs around 100 degrees. HeatRisk will maximize in the moderate category at best for scattered locations and mainly across SE CA. The weak ridging will be short lived as another upper low moves in from off the SW CA coast. This will produce height falls again across the SW US. Not enough moisture for showers, except for some higher elevations once again to the north of the forecast area. A northerly mid level flow around this low would suggest the potential for some occasional outflow winds dropping south across the deserts, just something to monitor for potential erratic winds and elevated fire weather. The lower heights through the week would suggest keeping temperatures in check somewhat, right around that century mark. Otherwise, typical May weather this week with dry conditions and afternoon breeziness. Cluster analysis out to days 6 and 7 for next weekend, favoring some type of building heights, could bring the warmest temperatures of the season so far. However the overall consensus is that positive height anomalies remain low so not seeing any higher levels of HeatRisk at the moment. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0540Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns are anticipated through the forecast period under mostly clear skies. Wind directions will favor their typical diurnal tendencies through tomorrow evening with periods of very light and variable winds during direction switches. The west switch will take hold between 18-20z, and though sustained speeds will remain aob 10 kts, gusts into the mid to upper teens may pick up later in the afternoon and last through the early evening tomorrow. Widely scattered, high-based cu are expected to develop again tomorrow over the high terrain to the north and east. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period under passing FEW-SCT high clouds. There is low confidence in the exact wind directions at BLH, though a southerly component will be favored through much of the period. West winds will be favored at IPL through tomorrow morning and late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Extended periods of light speeds (aob 6 kts sustained) and variability will be common at both terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... There will be local elevated fire danger this week as a result of some periodic gusty winds (mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours), dry fine fuels, and low humidity levels. MinRH levels will be around 10% across the lower deserts and in the teens for the higher terrain areas. Overnight recoveries will poor to fair and in the 20-50% range. Afternoon and early evening wind gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range, with some periodic higher gusts possible in the higher terrain in the eastern districts due to some high based showers over the mountains. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Berislavich AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich ####018008769#### FXUS62 KJAX 131057 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 657 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A few sprinkles are moving across the region as of 06-07Z, in response mainly to a pseudo warm front passing overhead as weak high pressure moves northeastward. This is setting the stage for the start of an active few days, as a more robust warm front approaches the region this afternoon and evening. The timing of this also coincides with the diurnal heating cycle and therefore an onshore sea breeze, which should help to induce convection over northeast FL. At the same time, shortwave energy/diffluence aloft associated with a larger upper trough over the south/central US streams east/northeast along the Gulf coast and across southeast GA. The combination of all these features will result in increasing shower and t'storm coverage throughout the afternoon and evening, likely continuing into at least the first half of tonight. Although plentiful ingredients are in place, the main limiting factor will be instability, as SB/MUCAPE is expected to be generally around 1000 J/kg, decreasing further north and east and especially over southeast GA. Despite this, with the modest dynamics and frontal boundary, the SPC still places the entirety of the CWA in a "marginal" risk for severe storms. The main threats will be gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall - though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well. Looking like the best "overlap" of ingredients will be around I-10 southward, though southeast GA certainly cannot be totally overlooked as well. Temps today will be a bit tricky due to the amount of cloud cover likely to be in place (which also will play a big factor in the amount of buoyancy available). However, expecting mid 80s to low 90s south of about I-10 and low 80s and some upper 70s over southeast GA. Expecting a break for most about after midnight through the morning hours, with a mild night of upper 60s to low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Tuesday...Warm frontal boundary still on track to be somewhere near the FL/GA border early in the day with likely ongoing convective complex along this boundary close to/or just west of the local area and expect this feature to push across the entire area at some point during this time frame with heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms expected. Rainfall totals still expect to be highest along and to the north of the warm frontal boundary with localized 2-4 inch amounts across SE GA and 1-2 inch amounts across NE FL. Damaging winds will remain the main storm threat, but large hail and/or isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Max temp forecast a bit tricky due to possible timing issues with storm activity but widespread highs in the 80s expected, with some lower 90s possible across NE FL south of a line from Ocala to St. Augustine. Even without storm activity expect the gradient wind flow to be out of the Southwest from 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times, strongest in the warm sector across NE FL. Tuesday Night...Mid to upper level trough sweeps into SE GA through the night with dry slot of air aloft pushing the frontal boundary with numerous showers and isolated strong/severe storms with heavy rainfall from SE GA during the evening hours slowly southward into NE FL during the overnight hours with waves of storms moving along this boundary during this time frame. Training of storms over already wet soils in some areas from this pattern set up may require the issuance of a Flood Watch for some areas on Tuesday ahead of this event. Low temps generally near 70 with gusty Southwest winds continuing at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph at times. Wednesday...Models trending towards dry slot aloft pushing in faster and driving trailing frontal boundary with showers/storms and heavy rainfall south of the region quicker than previous model runs, but for now have kept rainfall chances mainly during the morning hours across all areas, then shifting southward through NE FL during the early to mid afternoon hours with some partial clearing by the end of the day as frontal boundary pushes into Central Florida. Max temps generally in the mid/upper 80s with winds shifting to the West at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph at times. Wednesday Night...Drier airmass overspreads the local area with mainly dry conditions after sunset and skies becoming mostly clear and temps falling into the 60s area-wide behind the frontal passage. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Thursday...Lingering dry airmass in place between weather systems will continue mainly dry conditions with above normal temps reaching into the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas with West- Northwest winds at 10-15 mph and East Coast sea breeze remains pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast along the I-95 corridor. Friday/Saturday...Another similar scenario with warm frontal boundary lifting back northward on Friday and trailing frontal boundary pushing southward through the region on Saturday with heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential area- wide and rainfall chances already in the 50-70% range. Above normal temps will continue. Sunday...Lots of long range model uncertainty as some models push drier air into the region, while some stall the frontal boundary in the vicinity so for now the model blends are just placing normal diurnal scattered convection due to local sea breeze activity as above normal temps continue. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Overall thinking has not changed significantly since the last forecast. VFR is expected to continue through early this afternoon as cloud decks above 030 move in later this morning. Expecting convection to increase this afternoon and evening, with TEMPO groups now added for similar timing to the earlier forecast as well as a continued gusty wind potential. Isolated storms may be strong to severe, with gusts up to 40-60+ knots. More detail to TEMPO groups will be added throughout the day as the event unfolds. SHRA/-RA lingers tonight as more significant convection moves offshore. MVFR conditions will be likely for most of the night for this same period, and IFR also appears possible through the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Southeasterly winds increase through today as a warm front lifts northward toward the coastal waters. This will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions this evening and overnight tonight. Showers and storms will spread over our local waters this afternoon and into the evening ahead of the aforementioned warm front. Tuesday, the front stalls just north of the local waters as several rounds of heavy showers and storms push across the area through Wednesday. Conditions improve on Thursday as weak high pressure and offshore flow develops. Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be low to moderate given the offshore or along shore wind developing today and into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 From Monday to Wednesday, forecast storm total rainfall amounts are from 2 to 3 inches for southeast GA to about 1 to 2 inches for northeast FL. This may be enough to raise river levels a bit but for now no minor river flooding is forecast. The high- end potential total rain is over 5 inches in some locations, mainly favoring nrn half of the area, so we will need to monitor trends in the guidance for further updates to the forecast rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 81 68 83 69 / 80 80 100 70 SSI 81 71 84 72 / 60 60 90 70 JAX 85 70 89 71 / 60 60 90 70 SGJ 83 71 91 71 / 60 50 80 60 GNV 88 68 89 71 / 60 50 80 70 OCF 90 71 92 71 / 60 50 70 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ ####018004768#### FXUS61 KILN 131057 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 657 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and dry air will move off to the east today. Low pressure tracking from the west will provide unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry weather returns Thursday with high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure centered near the mid Atlantic Coast is forecast to keep mainly dry weather over the ILN area today. Mid and high moisture advection will allow increasing clouds. There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in far southwest counties late this afternoon as low level moisture and instability support isolated convective development there. Winds from the south gusting to 20 mph this afternoon will help boost high temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s, 5 to 7 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low pressure will be getting organized over Missouri tonight, before reaching Western Kentucky by late Tuesday. As moisture and lift increase in the circulation ahead of the low, showers will begin to impact the area tonight, with showers and a few thunderstorms becoming widespread Tuesday afternoon. Have backed off on timing of widespread showers relative to previous model runs. Severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low due to weak shear and relatively low CAPE under 1000 J/KG. Slow moving cells, favorable thermodynamic profiles showing tall skinny CAPE, and ample PWAT point to the possibility of heavy downpours. After mild lows around 60 tonight, readings reaching the near normal low and mid 70s on Tuesday will be limited by clouds and precip. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper low over Illinois at the beginning of the period will track east and be off the mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday night. Associated surface low will move across Kentucky, passing just south of the forecast area. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms, particularly Tuesday night while the upper system is over the area. Precipitable water is forecast to rise to around 150 percent of normal and weak wind fields will mean that individual precipitation elements may not move much. So this could lead to some locally heavy rainfall, although global ensemble systems have rather modest probabilities of 1 inch or more of rain within 24 hours. Heading into Wednesday, coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will likely decrease on the back side of the system, although diurnal component will keep chances through the afternoon. However, activity should quickly diminish by early Wednesday evening. High pressure will briefly build in for Thursday. But next trough will already be approaching. Looks like a northern stream short wave will pass across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday with lingering positively tilted trough extending into the southern Plains will more gradually slide east. So surface low will track north of the area, but trailing cold front will be somewhat slow to pass through Thursday night through Friday night. There will be more showers and thunderstorms associated with that. In the wake of this system, high pressure will build in over the weekend. Temperatures on Wednesday will be near normal. Otherwise, the period will be characterized by slightly above normal readings with the warmest days being over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions will remain VFR through the early part of the forecast as high pressure and dry air move east. Clouds will increase through today while ceilings remain VFR. Winds from the south will rise to 10 to 13 knots, with gusts around 20 knots possible this afternoon. Conditions deteriorate quickly late in the forecast thanks to low pressure advancing from the west. As moisture and lift increase tonight, VCSH followed by -SHRA are forecast at all sites. Once near surface air saturates, ceilings drop to MVFR, and then IFR at CVG and LUK. Slight improvement back to MVFR is possible at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Kept TS out for now due to isolated nature. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible with thunderstorms Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with thunderstorms Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio ####018007181#### FXUS63 KMQT 131057 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 657 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather returns today, continuing through Wednesday, then showers at times Thursday through the weekend. - Some limited fire weather concerns are expected for Iron and Dickinson counties this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Issued at 159 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Skies have cleared out behind the cold front this morning as high pressure ridging builds into the Upper Great Lakes region the rest of today. This is clearing in the cloud cover is allowing temperatures to plummet across the area, with some spots (including the office in Negaunee Township) already dropping down into the 40s. With the temperatures decreasing throughout the pre-dawn hours, expect lows to still be in the low 40s across most of the area. The only exception looks to be around the city of Menominee, where some stubborn cloud cover could keep lows in the mid to upper 40s. Mostly sunny skies remain over the area during the daylight hours today, with weak cold air advection aloft behind the cold front ceasing by the afternoon hours. With weak northerly flow across our area today, we could see the Lake Superior lake breeze reach all the way down to the Lake Michigan shoreline. Thus, there may be a few northerly wind gusts up to 20 mph at times this afternoon over the eastern half. In addition, cooler temperatures are expected over the east half, with highs in the mid to upper 40s near Munising to the low 60s near the Lake Michigan shoreline. With the lake breeze being weaker over the western half of the U.P., expect warmer temperatures, with highs generally getting into the 50s. In the interior west, where the Lake Superior lake breeze fails to reach, expect highs in the 60s, with a few spots near the Wisconsin border flirting with 70. In addition, without the moistening input from the lake over the area, min RHs are projected to get into the upper 20 percents across Iron and Dickinson counties, creating some elevated fire weather concerns. However, with the winds being light from the north/northwest across the interior west this afternoon (10 mph or less), the elevated fire weather concerns are somewhat limited. Therefore, no fire weather SPS will be issued for Iron and Dickinson counties today. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Mid-level ridging in central Canada will support sfc high pres over Hudson Bay for the next few days. This high will extend a ridge s into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today and then thru the Upper Great Lakes for Tue/Wed, allowing for dry days thru Wed. Temps will be on the cool side closer to Lake Superior and generally around normal well inland. Models have broad agreement on troffing progressing into the central U.S. heading into the late week period. This will lead to the next chc of shra during Wed night/Thu. Thereafter, model spread rapidly increases into and thru the weekend due to major differences in timing/amplitude of waves rounding a ridge just off of the W Coast. These differences translate to a very uncertain progression/amplitude of waves downstream to the Great Lakes region. For now, it seems that the pattern should favor somewhat unsettled weather for the Upper Great Lakes. Whether periodic shra occur over the weekend into early next week or a more widespread longer duration pcpn event occurs remains to be seen. Temps during the last half of the week should tilt toward above normal, but that will depend on the evolution of shortwaves thru the Upper Great Lakes. Next week, ensembles suggest temps will generally be on the cool side of normal under fairly widespread negative height anomalies across a good portion of the northern half of the Lwr 48. Beginning tonight thru Tue night, aforementioned sfc high pres will be ridging s into the Upper Great Lakes region. Fcst soundings suggest mainly clear nights tonight and Tue night and a mainly sunny day on Tue. With sfc high pres ridge more firmly over the area Tue night, Tue night will likely be the cooler night though there may be some high clouds to contend with. Precipitable water is not especially low to really enhance the cooling potential. Still, with precipitable water running 55-70pct of normal, will favor the lower side of avbl guidance, especially Tue night. Expect min temps ranging thru the 30s F tonight, coolest interior w half. Tue night should be a little cooler with mins at traditional interior cold spots having a better shot at slipping just blo 30F. A gradient onshore wind enhanced by the lake breeze component on Tue will lead to cool conditions along Lake Superior. Expect highs in the 40s F there. Temps will range up to the lwr 60s F well inland interior w half. Mix down of drier air in the aftn will result in RH falling to 20-30pct interior w half, but lighter winds not gusting above 15mph will limit fire weather concerns. Sfc high pres will begin to slip e on Wed, but still a dry day. Mid- level trof progressing to the central U.S. will lead to some increase in cloudiness during the day, especially w half. Highs will range from the 50s F near Lake Superior to well into the 60s F interior w half. Low amplitude mid-level trof moving out across the Northern Plains on Wed will shift toward the Upper Great Lakes on Thu. Shra associated with this feature should spread into western Upper MI late Wed night, then progress eastward on Thu. There is fair agreement that Fri will be a drier day, but not necessarily dry everywhere all day. Fcst will then reflect broad brush 30-40pct chc of shra over the weekend. For now, widespread or all day rain is not expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 657 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions continue across the TAF sites as mainly northerly flow continues over the next 24 hours. While not expected, there is a 10% chance that some marginal LLWS could be seen over KSAW for an hour or two tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Sfc high pressure over Hudson Bay will extend a ridge south into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today. The ridge will drift across the Upper Great Lakes thru Wed. As a result, expect winds mostly under 20kt, but with some exceptions. NW winds will gust up to 25kt over eastern Lake Superior today ahead of the ridge. On Wed, NE winds gusting up to 25kt will be possible over far western Lake Superior. Winds will continue to be mostly under 20kt Thu/Fri. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...Rolfson AVIATION...TAP MARINE...JTP ####018007714#### FXUS61 KBOX 131058 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 658 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions today and turning milder with more seasonable temperatures as high pressure builds to the south. A warm front will bring scattered showers tonight followed by warm weather Tuesday, but a few showers are possible in the interior during the afternoon. A coastal storm lifting NE from the middle Atlantic coast may bring showers and cooler temperatures Wednesday, and unsettled weather could linger into Thursday as the low pressure is slow to depart. High pressure returns Friday then another system may bring more rain next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Shortwave ridging moves into New Eng today with surface high pres south of New Eng. Dry air in the column to start the day will result in lots of sunshine this morning, then clouds will increase during the afternoon as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching warm front. A modest low level jet transports higher PWATs into New Eng from the west during the afternoon which may lead to a few showers in western MA mid-late afternoon, otherwise dry weather today. The S-SW flow will bring a milder airmass into SNE as 925 mb temps increase to 10-12C. Highs should reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, but cooler along the immediate coast where sea-breezes develop. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Tonight... Warm front will be moving into SNE tonight with PWATs increasing to 1-1.25". Deepening moisture plume ahead of the front moves across the region 00-06z which will bring scattered showers, especially north of the Pike where best forcing sets up. Then dry slot moves in behind the front 06-12z so shower activity will exit to the north and east overnight. S-SW winds and higher dewpoints advecting into the region will result in a milder night with lows upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday... Warm sector airmass overspreads SNE on Tue with warm and somewhat more humid airmass. Some stratus is possible across northern MA to start the day, otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies with clouds increasing later in the afternoon. 925 mb temps increase to 15-17C supporting highs 75-80, perhaps a few lower 80s in the interior valleys, but 60s near the south coast due to increasing S- SW flow. Dewpoints will be climbing through the 50s. It will become breezy with soundings suggesting gusts to 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Marginal instability across the interior which may lead to a few convective showers developing mid-late afternoon, but better chance of showers and t-storms will be to the north and west where better moisture and instability closer to a frontal boundary. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Points * Rain possible Wednesday with showers lingering into Thursday * Mainly dry Friday, then unsettled wet weather returns for the weekend. * High temps remain seasonable with onshore flow Wednesday Shortwave trough exits out of the Ohio River Valley and passes just south of SNE. With the best forcing to the south, this has caused models to trend the associated surface low further south. This shift south has been a trend with guidance over this time range in the last week. Wouldn't be surprised if models keep shifting the low and QPF south over the coming days. With the shift south, Ensemble QPF probs have decreased significantly. Probs for 1 inch of rain is now less then 10% and for 0.5 inches less then 30%. High temps drop back into the mid to upper 60s with 850mb temps dropping back to +7C along with showers and thick cloud cover around much of the day. Thursday and Friday Guidance has trended slower kicking out the shortwave as it tries to cutoff over the mid Atlantic coast due to downstream blocking. This has resulted in rain chances lingering into Thursday before an abnormally dry airmass and NW flow kicks in for Thursday afternoon into Friday. High temps both days should reach the upper 60s to mid 70s with mainly sunny conditions and onshore flow. The only wrench in a nice pleasant end to the week is if the cutoff stalls just south of the region which would bring cooler temps, cloudy skies, and more rain. Winds Thursday could become gusty up to 35mph esspically near the coasts as the surface low passes offshore to the east. Next Weekend Another shortwave trough exits the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. Guidance remains quite spread on the timing and amplitude of this shortwave. There will likely be rain sometime over the weekend, but its too early to pin down exact timing and how much will fall. Highs over the weekend look to remain seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s with onshore flow. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. VFR with 5-10k ft cigs developing in the afternoon. A few showers possible in western MA after 18z. S-SW wind 10-15 kt with sea-breezes developing along the coast. Tonight...High confidence. VFR cigs with scattered showers moving through the region, especially north of the Pike. Lower MVFR cigs may develop across northern MA overnight. S-SW wind 5-10 kt Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. A few convective showers possible across interior MA and northern CT during the afternoon. SW gusts to 20-25 kt developing. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Sea breeze develops around 14z. Low chance for a shower tonight KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. SSW winds. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Thursday through Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday... Increasing S-SW winds this afternoon into tonight with gusts to 20 kt at times over nearshore waters. SW gusts to 25 kt Tue, especially eastern MA waters where SCA will likely be needed. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/KP NEAR TERM...KJC/KP SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...KP AVIATION...KJC/KP MARINE...KJC/KP ####018007364#### FXUS61 KRLX 131059 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 659 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry and mostly pleasant weather today, amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns tonight lasting into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 550 AM Monday... Made updates to temperatures as valley locations have decoupled and are seeing the lowest temperatures compared to ridge tops. Temperatures in the lower 30s are being reported on weather stations across Nicholas, Pocahontas, Randolph and Webster counties. That said, continued the SPS for frost until 830 this morning for these locations. Models are starting to slow the timing for the onset of rain showers tonight by an hour or two, still starting it before midnight though. The HRRR does through some scattered showers across the area later this afternoon ahead of the main batch of showers that will arrive from the SW before midnight. QPF has also backed off quite a bit as well, but still seeing PWATs between 1.25" and 1.50" on HiRes model data early Tuesday morning, so will have to monitor trends closely. As of 200 AM Monday... Expecting another cool morning with surface high pressure to our east invading the area. Most locations have already decoupled or will within the next few hours due to stagnant air flow from proximity to the high. Patchy fog along the sheltered river valleys across the coalfields of VA/WV, metro valley and the mountains. Radiational cooling also allowing for cool spots to see low temperatures in the lower 40s across the lowlands; upper 30s in the mountains. Pockets of frost will be possible in the mountain valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph counties. An SPS has been hoisted to cover this as frost not expected to be widespread enough for an advisory. Skies will remain mostly clear, outside of some passing cirrus from the west through the morning. High temperatures look to be above normal today due to southerly flow picking up this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s across the lowlands, 70s to around 80 in the mountains. Expecting more cloud coverage later this afternoon with lowering ceilings, especially this evening when an occluding low moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and over the eastern Midwest. That said, PoPs increase from SW to NE later this evening as it slowly makes its way towards us. PoPs become likely by midnight with scattered showers, and even slight chances for an isolated thunderstorm across the coalfields and the eastern mountains. Tuesday looks to start out rather wet after having a few decent, albeit chilly mornings. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... Wet weather will persist through the middle of the work week as an upper-level trough slowly moves east across the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic, while a surface low and front linger over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the period, but are forecast to be most numerous from later Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon as the warm front goes stationary over or just north of the CWA and the upper-level trough gets closer. With the forecast passage of the upper trough and the surface low and cold front late Wednesday, most shower activity should start to taper off or move away to the east Wednesday night. WPC did maintain our area in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and Tuesday night. While model precipitable water values aren't anything crazy (1.25-1.50 inches, maybe some higher pockets), the potential for cumulative impacts of multiple heavy showers or t-storms could lead to some issues. The storm total forecast from late Mon night through Wed night would have 1.00-1.50 inches across most of the area, but of course some higher pockets will be possible depending on any potential training or repeated hits. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 AM Monday... Transient upper-level ridging should allow for mostly dry conditions across the area on Thursday. That said, with enough boundary layer moisture and some light upslope flow, a few terrain-driven showers or t-storms are possible in the afternoon. Models seem to be in reasonable agreement on the passage of another front with some showers and storms Friday afternoon or night, with some ridging expected afterwards. However, models diverge over the weekend with how 'clean' or 'dirty' the ridge may be, thus some chance POPs are maintained across the region due to this uncertainty. Temps look to stay near to a bit above normal during the period, but we'll have to keep an eye on the strength of the Friday front to see if that may drop temps a bit for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM Monday... VFR through the period, outside of patchy river valley fog this morning. EKN is reporting IFR restrictions due to fog; CRW is reporting VCFG but winds are picking up and not expecting major impacts, still allowed TEMPO groups and VCFG to cover scattered nature of fog. Expecting return to VFR by ~13Z for any sites experiencing restrictions. High clouds will filter through this morning and will be SCT at times, before becoming BKN by afternoon; SCT mid-level clouds due to daytime heating will be likely as well. CIGs will gradually start lowering SW to NE after ~20Z as a disturbance makes its way toward the region. VFR still expected at least until ~06Z Tuesday. Light to calm S'rly winds this morning will pick up at a light to gentle breeze by afternoon. Winds will be breezy at times in the mountains later today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...LTC