####018003854#### FXUS62 KFFC 102322 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 622 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Gusty winds will gradually subside overnight into early Thursday morning as a cooler airmass returns in the wake of a dry cold front. - Significant rainfall is not anticipated in the region through at least the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 124 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Mostly sunny conditions for the bulk of the area this afternoon will give way to some clouds from northwest to southeast this evening as a cold front quickly sweeps across the area. Despite some increase in cloud cover, this front will bring no precipitation, and dry weather will continue to persist through the short term. Expect gusty southwest winds in advance of the front through this evening to transition to the northwest in the wake of the front tonight with gusts as high as 25-30 mph and a few higher gusts to 35 mph at times. Wind gusts will then gradually settle by Thursday morning. A renewed shot of colder air will greet us by Thursday morning with low temperatures at or below freezing for the bulk of north Georgia. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs on Thursday will run around 10 degrees cooler than today as surface high pressure pushes overhead, generally ranging from the upper 40s in north Georgia to low-to-mid 50s in Middle Georgia. && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 124 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 High pressure settles into the region towards the end of the work week brining with it dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Highs will gradually increase out of the 40s and 50s into the 60s for most of the CWA by the time the weekend rolls around. The weak warm front that pushes in will help to reduce the dry air, but could be the source for some scattered showers as a cold front moves in on Sunday. The cold front brings in a reinforcing shot of dry cold air that will start off next work week. Expect lows to fall back towards freezing overnight with high temps in the 40s and 50s. There is a low confidence chance of some scattered precip again on Wednesday of next week it's still too far out to say with any kind of certainty what that weak impulse in the upper level flow will look like by the time it rolls around. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 A FEW to BKN low to mid level clouds accompanying a cold front continue to push thru all sites this evening. Patchy MVFR (~2500-3000 ft) is possible but occurrence at any sites should be brief, largely ending by 01z (02z at the latest). SW/WSW winds gradually shift to the NW following the FROPA. Gusts persist but slowly taper through 06z. Clearing skies by early Thursday. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence on all elements. 07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 31 48 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 31 48 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 24 42 27 54 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 28 47 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 33 53 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 31 47 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 33 53 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 31 51 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 30 50 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 37 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...07 ####018002396#### FXUS65 KFGZ 102322 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 422 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be the main story through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains situated over the eastern Pacific allowing daytime highs to reach 10-20 degrees above normal and dry conditions to persist. This ridge will build and wiggle eastward through Saturday, keeping our weather story very stagnate over the next few days. A dry trough looks to insert itself later this weekend/early next week, but overall impacts will be hardly noticeable. Afternoon high temperatures will likely drop by a few degrees (although still remain well above normal for this time of year), and increased high clouds will be the main excitement from this low pressure system. As the low pressure system exits out of the state by Tuesday morning, a dry northwest flow will return to the region. In short, warm temperatures, dry weather, and light winds will stick around for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION...Thursday 11/00Z through Friday 12/00Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. ENE winds 10-15kts develop mainly in the overnight hours downwind of higher terrain features. This includes terminal KSEZ. OUTLOOK...Friday 12/00Z through Sunday 14/00Z...Expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. ENE winds 10-15kts develop mainly in the overnight hours downwind of higher terrain features. This includes terminal KSEZ. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and warm conditions continue with temperatures 10-20 degrees above average. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 15-35% each afternoon. Saturday through Monday...Dry and warm conditions will continue through the weekend with temperatures 10-20 degrees above average Saturday and 10-15 degrees above average Sunday and Monday. Light and variable daytime winds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Minimum RH values between 15-35% each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018007182#### FXUS62 KMHX 102322 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 622 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore today ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area tonight. High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of a potent cold front that will move through on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 12 PM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front Latest surface obs show a surface low over southern Michigan with its cold front moving across the Mississippi River Valley. This front has slowed a little, and is now not expected to reach ENC until late tonight. The gradient will continue to pinch ahead of this front, causing southwest winds to become increasingly more gusty this afternoon and evening. Inland, winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. Along the coast, winds will be 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Cloud cover will increase as the front approaches, but no precipitation is expected. Highs will range from the low 50s across the coastal plain to upper 50s along the coast. Tonight, CAA will take over behind the front. Although skies will be clear, breezy winds will keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent us from radiating as well as we did last night, so lows will be slightly milder in the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 12 PM Wednesday... Key Messages... - Cool, dry, and breezy The front will be offshore by tomorrow morning with high pressure building in its wake. Most of the area will spend the day under sunny skies, save for some lingering scattered low clouds along the Outer Banks. It'll feel pretty chilly tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 40s paired with breezy northwest winds gusting to 20-25 mph inland and 25-30 mph at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 12 PM Wednesday... Key Messages... - High pressure brings cool temperatures and dry conditions through late week - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday - Wind chills in the single digits to low teens possible Sunday night/Monday morning Thursday night through Friday...Temps will tank Thursday night as the high becomes centered over the region and the winds go light to calm under clear skies. Coastal plain lows are expected to drop to the mid to upper 20s with the Outer Banks in the mid to upper 30s. High pressure will slide offshore on Friday as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Temps will be slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 40s across northern zones to low to mid 50s across southern zones. No precipitation is expected with this shortwave as the better forcing is displaced to our north. However, there will be an increase in cloud cover, especially across northern zones. Friday night lows will range from the low 30s across the coastal plain to upper 30s and low 40s along the coast. Saturday through Sunday Night...A closed low will travel across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Saturday will be very pleasant with sunny skies and the warmest temps of the week with highs in the mid to upper 50s area wide. The upper trough will dig across the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a potent cold front sending a blast of Arctic air well into the southern states. There are still some timing differences with the FROPA, and an earlier trend would result in cooler high temps, but the current forecast is for highs to reach the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plain and mid 50s at the coast. This airmass is fairly moisture starved, but there remains a slight chance to low end chance of rain or a rain/snow mix. Most notable will be the dangerously cold low temps Sunday night/Monday morning, which are forecast to drop to the upper teens across the coastal plain and mid to upper 20s along the Outer Banks. These temps, paired with the gusty NW winds behind the front, will drop wind chills into the single digits to low teens for most of the area. Monday through Wednesday...Arctic high pressure will build in behind the front on Monday and temps may struggle to reach the 40s. Tuesday will begin our warming trend with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 620 PM Wed... Key Messages - VFR expected through the TAF period with a window of LLWS concerns tonight Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with sct high clouds early tonight ahead of an approaching cold front and SW winds. The cold front will then push through the area later tonight, but with limited available moisture, only expect some mid-level clouds to accompany the frontal passage. A few hours of LLWS will be likely early tonight with strengthening low- level jet. Flow becomes NW behind the front late tonight into Thu, transitioning to light and variable Thursday evening as high builds into the region. Outlook: Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. && .MARINE... As of 1:15 PM Wednesday... Key Messages - Southwest winds increase today ahead of a cold front with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for most waters and Gales south of Oregon Inlet Today through Thursday...Southwest winds will continue to increase through today ahead of a potent cold front and peak late tonight. A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet for southwest to west winds at 20-30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. SCAs are in effect for all other waters (except the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers). Seas will build to 7-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet and 4-7 ft to the north. Winds will be out of the NW by tomorrow morning and will decrease through the day with seas following suit. By late tomorrow afternoon/early evening, all waters will have sub-SCA conditions. Saturday through Monday...Better boating conditions are expected Friday and Saturday but will be short-lived as another potent cold front is set to cross the area on Sunday. The wind forecast has trended more pessimistic with this update with Gales expected to develop by Sunday evening. Conditions will improve on Monday as high pressure moves back in. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-137- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...OJC ####018002700#### FXUS63 KDDC 102323 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 523 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions likely through the weekend. - Unseasonably warmer temperatures Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is sliding southeast through the Texas Panhandle. Dry conditions will continue through the weekend as the SREF shows the northwesterly aloft persisting during the period in question. Near the surface, westerly downsloping will continue to reinforce a dry air mass across western Kansas ahead of a cold front projected to push through Thursday night. Less than a robust flow aloft with a polar jet remaining well to our north, and the dominating dry air mass throughout the high plains will continue to keep precip chances out of southwest/central Kansas through at least Sunday. Well above normal temperatures are likely tonight as low level southwesterly downsloping re-establishes across southwest Kansas in wake of departing high pressure while weak lee side troughing develops in eastern Colorado. With the latest HREF indicating a 60- 80% probability of temperatures dropping below 40F by daybreak Thursday morning, look for lows generally down into the 30s(F) with near 40F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will climb well above the seasonal average Thursday as downsloping becomes more westerly behind an advancing surface trough axis through western Kansas, helping push H85 temperatures well above 10C in central Kansas to a little above 15C near the Colorado line. Under ample sunshine, expect afternoon highs in the upper 60s(F) in central Kansas where the HREF shows a better than 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 65F to the lower 70s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas where there is better than a 90% probability of temperatures nudging above 70F. Cooler temperatures are likely Friday with colder air surging southward into western Kansas behind a projected cold frontal passage Thursday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. With mainly southwest to westerly winds generally 5-15 knots, not seeing any impacts to aviation across southwest and central Kansas through early Thursday evening. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Bennett ####018003992#### FXUS63 KLBF 102323 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 523 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another warm up is expected Thursday. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected for areas mainly west of Highway 183. - Much colder, especially across northern Nebraska this weekend. Some light snow is also possible. - Warning again next week as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Surface high pressure has quickly built into the area today. Colder air has filtered in behind the front as a modified Canadian airmass briefly crosses the area. Overnight, tonight, the surface ridge axis will shift eastward across Minnesota and Iowa. Meanwhile, a leeward surface trough will sharpen across central SD and Nebraska. An area of mid-level FGEN is in the process of developing across western NE this afternoon, and will shift eastward/northeastward as WAA aloft intensifies. The mid and upper levels will continue to saturate, and expect a bit of light precipitation to eventually make it to the surface late this afternoon into tonight. Any precipitation should start as light snow, then as warmer air aloft moves in expect a brief change to light freezing rain before ending after sunrise Thursday. This threat is mostly nearer the SD border as drier air in the lower levels farther to the south will limit precipitation making it to the surface. Warmer temperatures return Thursday as the leeward surface trough shifts eastward across the area. Highs well into the 60s are expected west of the surface trough (for areas roughly west of Highway 183). Elevated fire weather concerns will increase as gusty west winds combine with lower humidity and the warm temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Northwest flow aloft continues into the weekend. Strong arctic high pressure will settle southward into the Dakotas with a strong cold front surging southward through the area Friday. A reinforcing cold front then backs in from the northeast Saturday. This will keep portions of north central Nebraska in the teens for highs Saturday. A slow moderation in temperatures is then expected Sunday into Monday. Will have to closely monitor the Friday night into Saturday morning period across northern Nebraska. A strong area of mid-level FGEN will be in place north of the cold front. Snow will be likely where within this area. Ensemble means have trended a bit southward with the accumulating snow - but not as far south as some of the operational runs. Again will monitor, as accumulating snow could occur nearer the SD border. Otherwise it will be very cold Saturday across northern Nebraska, with highs barely reaching above 10F near the SD border in Boyd Co. Meanwhile mid 40s are expected across far southwest Nebraska. A warming trend is expected next week as ridging develops across the Rockies into the plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Skies will remain mainly overcast across western and north central Nebraska into the morning hours as a warm front lifts across northern Nebraska. There will be a minor threat for light freezing rain around KONL from 10z to 16z Thursday morning. Skies will then gradually scatter out from west to east Thursday morning with ceilings around 20000 to 25000 FT AGL at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Winds may become gusty from the west Thursday afternoon with speeds approaching 30 KTS at the KVTN terminal and 25 KTS at the KLBF terminal. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Buttler ####018002935#### FXUS64 KLUB 102323 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 523 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Quiet weather, with well above-average temperatures Thursday through Saturday. - Cold front moves through Sunday, then warming again into next week. - Dry conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Little has changed with the synoptic pattern within our region over the past 24 hours, and benign weather will continue given ongoing dry and stable northwest flow aloft. Initially strong northeast breezes behind the earlier morning front will gradually subside through the rest of the day and become light this evening as surface high pressure settles over the region. Tonight, this ridge will position over central TX which will turn surface flow back southwesterly overnight, keeping lows relatively mild considering the post-frontal airmass. West-southwesterly surface winds will strengthen a bit more during the daytime on Thursday as a ripple in the flow aloft deepens a lee surface trough axis over eastern CO. The resulting downslope component along with modest midlevel height rises will result in a dramatically warmer day compared to today, with highs Thursday running about 20 degrees normal for this time of year as afternoon temperatures warm into the 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The extended weather pattern remains generally unchanged from the previous forecast. Despite breezy NE winds developing Friday west of relatively low pressure, the warm airmass aloft will remain in place ahead of a ridge over the Desert Southwest with heights ranging from 576-579 Dm. Corresponding high temperatures will mostly be in the mid 60s. A return of SW surface flow Saturday will bring even warmer temperatures into the 70s for many locations. A strong cold front will drop highs over 20 degrees on Sunday to near 50 with increased cloud cover. Southwest winds will return thereafter and above- average highs will return through what looks to be all the way through next week. An upper trough will move in from the west on Monday. Current model agreement remains poor as to it progression, however at time it appears that all of the associated moisture will remain off to the east. Thus a PoP-free forecast has been maintained. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR. Light winds overnight turn SW and become breezy by late morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93