####018005079#### FXUS62 KTBW 111802 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions continue with near record high temperatures and heat index values of up to 110. - Dry conditions can be expected for next work week && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Scattered Cu clouds are decorating the skies across the state as day time heating does its part to destabilize the atmosphere. Upper level ridging continues to build over the region while troughiness remains to the east with disturbances riding along across the SE. At the surface, ridge axis is east keeping light south to southeasterly winds in place. This set up will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop early and outflow boundaries will push convection back towards the west coast during the late afternoon and evening. PWAT values will stay around 2 in., the ample instability available, the sea breeze, and additional U/L energy will support strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. Residents and visitors should remain weather aware, especially if planning to be outdoors. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s resulting in triple digits heat indices as storms get delayed. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7pm today. The public is urged to limit outdoor activities, stay hydrated and if outside, take breaks indoors. On Sunday, slightly lower moisture may limit storm coverage with the highest chances over the interior and north of the I-4 corridor, as Saharan Dust moves over the state. Similar temperatures are anticipated though heat indices seem to be just below criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 By next week, the Saharan Dust lingers especially across central and southern portions of the state while a frontal boundary stalls across north FL. Higher moisture will support showers and storms over the Nature Coast. Above normal temperature in place with highs in the mid 90s through the period. Overnight lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal areas remaining around 80 degrees. Additional advisories may be needed. Relatively low rain chances prevail through most of the period with moisture increasing towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Prevailing VFR over the next few hours as rain chances increase, however, dry Saharan Dust is still expected to impact storm coverage this afternoon. The highest chances remain over the interior and north of the I-4 corridor with convection pushing back towards the coast in the evening. MVFR/IFR conditions where thunderstorms develop. VFR conditions should fully return tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The main weather concern for mariners today will be showers and storms pushing back towards the coast later this afternoon and evening. Winds will remain pretty light through Wednesday staying between 5 to 10 knots. Drier conditions push in over the next few days with isolated storms chances through the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 High pressure continues to be in control with warm and humid conditions expected through Wednesday and minimal fire concerns. Scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly in the evening and early overnight hours on Saturday. After that we can expected mainly dry conditions with only isolated storms chances through mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 93 82 93 / 30 30 10 20 FMY 78 96 79 96 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 76 96 77 96 / 30 40 10 30 SRQ 79 94 80 94 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 75 95 76 94 / 30 40 10 30 SPG 81 93 82 93 / 20 20 10 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn ####018005322#### FXUS64 KBRO 111802 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 102 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 - Chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms drop from a low to medium (20-50%) today to a low (15-20%) chance tomorrow and Monday, followed by lower (at most 15%) chances. - Heavy rain creating minor nuisance flooding is still possible, with the highest chance this afternoon and evening. - Highs in the mid/upper 90s along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 F maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4). - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents prevails through tomorrow afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The inverted trough aloft that has brought brought unsettled weather the past couple of days continues to slowly pull out of deep south Texas from east to west into tonight as a weak high pressure aloft expands across the Gulf. In the meantime, deep tropical Gulf moisture (PWAT values > 2 in.) and weak forcing have already led to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms between I-69 E and US-281, producing heavy rain, lightning and a few gustier winds and dropping around 0.50-0.75 of an inch in spots of Kenedy County. This area of rain is expected to continue shifting west along the seabreeze boundary, increasing chances of rain to a low to medium (20-50%) chance, highest across the Northern Ranchlands and northern Zapata County. The RRFS and a few runs of the HRRR this morning have indicated the potential for some training of cells along or just west of the international border, perhaps as far east as portions of Starr County from late this afternoon into the evening or early nighttime hours. Should this be realized, rainfall amounts of up to an 1.0-1.5 inches, is possible in a few locations over these areas. Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph are not out of the question within the deepest of convection, especially west of US-281, when and where convection runs into higher daytime instability. Following, subsidence enhances a bit as weak high pressure takes over aloft, cutting chances of rain along the afternoon seabreeze down to a low (15-20%) chance tomorrow across mostly the Northern Ranchlands, expanding to most of the region on Monday; moisture pooling ahead of a trough moving over the Southern Plains could still result in brief periods of heavy rain into the early parts of this upcoming week as southeasterly winds, gusting to 20-25+ mph in the afternoon, continue advecting inland pulses of deeper, Gulf moisture. There is still a chance of rain over northern parts of the CWA around the middle of the week as the trough shifts to the Desert Southwest in addition to increased cloud cover. Otherwise, drier lower/mid levels keeps chances of rain around 10% or less. High temperatures in the mid 80s at the coast and mid/upper 90s inland continue, peaking as high as near 100 F for portions of the middle RGV and points westward. Although drier relative humidity is expected to slightly ease off afternoon heat indices from 105-110 F to 100-105 F by Tuesday, mainly moderate heat risks are anticipated to prevail into next weekend. Overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s as well as lower 80s along/near the coast continue. A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Southeasterly winds of around 13-17 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots, continue into the late afternoon or early evening hours today, becoming light and gentle overnight tonight. VFR TAFs are anticipated throughout the 18Z TAFs and although there is a possibility of SHRA/TS this afternoon, confidence and probabilities are too low to include at this time. Amendments are still possible for heavy rain and/or thunderstorms, reduced visibility or lower ceilings. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Southeasterly winds continue, ranging from moderate to fresh during the day and gentle to moderate overnight along with mainly moderate (3-6 ft) seas. Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are possible. A Small Craft Advisory is possible later in this upcoming week as a fetch of heightened seas from a tightened pressure gradient over the Gulf could result in 6-7 ft seas. Low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain drop off to a low (15-30%) chance by Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 94 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 10 20 MCALLEN 79 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 77 99 / 30 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish ####018003129#### FXUS63 KGLD 111802 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1202 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and near average temperatures expected over the weekend. - Increasing signal for a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 500 mb anticyclone near the Four Corners today will move into the Dakotas tomorrow and then remain nearly stationary over the northern plains into early next week. At the surface, high pressure over Missouri will maintain breezy southeast winds and relatively moist conditions through the period. Given the lack of forcing due to the upper ridge, convection will be very isolated and diurnally driven. CAMs show only a pulse storm or two each afternoon, mainly in Colorado, with very little movement. Most locations will remain dry in this pattern. Temperatures show little change, with highs in the low 90s. No fire weather concerns are anticipated with dew points in the 50s and 60s resulting in afternoon relative humidity minimums of 20-30%. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that a 500-mb ridge will be overhead throughout the long term forecast period. High temperatures are forecast to be primarily in the lower 90s through Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidities (RH) look to steadily drop throughout the period, but are forecast to remain above 20% across the area. This would keep heat index values in the upper 80s and lower 90s at least through Wednesday afternoon, well below the threshold for a Heat Advisory (Heat Index greater than 105 degrees). Forecast guidance shows high temperatures highest toward the end of next week, in the mid 90s Thursday and Friday. This may be linked to a stronger upper-level trough beginning to break down the longwave ridge across the Western United States. However, there is uncertainty regarding the strength and track of this trough, in addition to whether it will actually be successful in breaking down the ridge. If this feature can break down the ridge a bit and move more into the Northern United States, increased southerly flow ahead of a surface low may allow for the slight temperature increase. This could aid in RH values dropping into the lower 20s across portions of East- Central Colorado. While this is above critical fire weather criteria, it will be something to keep an eye on, as fuels have remained relatively dry across this zone despite recent rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period with light winds and mostly clear skies. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...Davis AVIATION...024 ####018004697#### FXUS61 KCAR 111803 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 203 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - The risk for thunderstorms Wednesday is likely to be over northern areas, rather than Downeast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Very warm to hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s possible Monday-Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday. 2) There is a chance for strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorms over north/central areas Tuesday, continuing into Tuesday night area wide. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm to hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s possible Monday-Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An upper level ridge over the Great Plains will shift to the east as the jet stream moves across the axis. This will pipe very warm temperatures from the western US into the region Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures are currently expected to peak Tuesday across all inland areas and Wednesday for coastal Downeast. Moderate humidity with dew points in the 60s are expected which should push the apparent temperature higher into the mid 90s. A cooldown is likely through the end of the week as cooler air moves in behind a cold front expected to exit off the coast on Wednesday. KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a chance for strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorms over north/central areas Tuesday, continuing into Tuesday night area wide. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The Storm Prediction Center continues to show a 15% risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday for all but coastal Maine. Ensemble solutions are in good agreement that a potent shortwave trough will approach our area from the west on Tuesday with a seasonably strong cold front at the surface. Some frontal timing differences still exist among the guidance but the general thinking is that the cold front will move through the Quebec province during the day while convection fires ahead of it in northern parts of our area in response to broad-scale ascent associated with height falls. Then, convection that had developed over Quebec along the front may coalesce into a cluster or MCS and move through our area overnight. The factors driving the chance for severe storms include relatively high instability of 1000-2000 J/kg, strong bulk shear of up to 50 kts, and steepening lapse rates. The question will be how the thermodynamics evolve into the evening and if enough instability can remain to support strong storms persisting as they move through our area overnight. Currently thinking that all severe hazards are possible at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rest of this afternoon: VFR. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Tonight: Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds around 5 knots. Sunday: Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday night: VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest. Monday-Monday night: VFR south, MVFR in any showers/thunderstorms at northern terminals Monday afternoon/evening. SW winds 10-15 kts. LLWS possible Monday night. Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR, MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection. The best chance for a strong thunderstorm is at northern terminals and the threat could continue into the overnight hours. WSW winds 10-15 kts, becoming W Tue night. Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR, possible MVFR in any isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms, especially at northern terminals. WNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, decreasing overnight. Thursday: VFR except for MVFR in any afternoon showers. W winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. && .MARINE... Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday night. Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal and intracoastal waters Monday evening through early Wednesday, then decreasing below criteria through Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SM/CN AVIATION...SM/CN ####018005101#### FXUS65 KPUB 111804 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1204 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Still enough lingering moisture for isolated, high based convection over the mountains and Pikes Peak region today. with lightning and gusty outflow winds a fire concern. - Hotter and drier conditions build Sunday into next week, though enough moisture lingers over the mountains for isolated, weak and brief afternoon thunderstorms. - Moisture and thunderstorm chances potentially return to areas along the Continental Divide from Wednesday into the end of the week, with only isolated storms over the eastern mountains, while the plains remain dry and hot. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Still a few lingering storms over the plains south of the Arkansas River early this morning, though expect activity to sink south and dissipate the next few hours, with gradually clearing skies by sunrise. For today, upper ridge builds over the Rockies, leading to much less in the way of thunderstorm activity over the region this afternoon. A few CAMs suggest enough residual moisture/instability around to pop an isolated t-storm over the mountains mid/late afternoon, though activity will be spotty and weak with lack of much upper support. Will have to watch for some locally gusty winds with any outflows, with HRRR hinting at some moderate east winds (gusts 20-25 mph) near/just north of the Aspen Acres fire in the late afternoon/early evening. Max temps will creep upward under the ridge, with 80s over the higher terrain and upper 80s to mid 90s over the valleys and plains. Slightly hotter and drier on Sunday as heights creep upward under the ridge, with subsidence again suppressing most t-storm activity. Again, can't rule out some brief, weak convection over the higher terrain in the afternoon as low level moisture lingers, though suspect activity will be even more sparse than Saturday's meager crop of storms. Breezy east winds Saturday afternoon may create some brief periods of enhanced fire danger, mainly over the central mountains and San Luis Valley. Max temps will nudge upward another degf or two as ridge builds, warmest spots across the lower Arkansas Valley with mid/upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Upper ridge remains in place over the Rockies from Monday through much of next week, though center of the high will stay over the northern plains/upper Midwest, leaving southern Colorado with fairly deep easterly flow, which should keep temps from becoming "excessively" hot through the week. Pattern is not conducive to much in the way of thunderstorm activity, especially eastern mountains and plains, though some isolated convection may build over the higher terrain each after Mon-Wed, best chance of some light rainfall will be back toward the Continental Divide. Subtle differences in ridge position from mid-late week lead to a rather low confidence forecast in the return of thunderstorm activity to the area, with GFS and it's ensemble members wetter than rather dry looking Euro/Euro Ensembles. NBM leans wetter for Thu/Fri, though won't be too surprised if forecast trends drier the next few days, as ridge position in general looks unfavorable for a deep plume of moisture reaching southern Colorado. Highest pops mid-late week will be along the Continental Divide, where at least scattered areas of wetting rainfall will be possible by the end of the period. Eastern mountains and plains will likely miss most activity, with just some very isolated storms over the mountains by week's end. No let-up in the hot temps expected, with 80s mountains/high valleys and 90s to near 100f plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Upper level ridging continues to build across western Colorado, leading to modest northerly flow aloft across the region. With that said, isolated high based -shra/-tsra remain possible over the higher terrain, with low to very low chances of these -shra/-tsra affecting the terminals. Best chances of outflow winds from storms affecting the terminals will be at ALS, and have added a prob30 for the low potential for gusty winds near the terminal. Probs remain too low to add any mention for COS and PUB at this time. Convection to diminish and end through the early evening with clearing skies overnight. Otherwise, generally light diurnal wind regimes expected at the terminals, save for breezy easterlies developing at ALS through the late afternoon and into the evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MW