####018003657#### FXUS63 KUNR 102331 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 431 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Mixed precip expected across the area tonight, with some icing across portions of NW SD -Warm Thurs ahead of an arctic front -Cold and snowy Thur night into Sat with some snow accums, heaviest across NW SD where a few inches are possible -Warm and dry next week && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday) Issued at 128 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Active northern stream will continue to bring wild swings in temps along with precip chances through the end of the week. Massive western CONUS ridge will support another CP front into the region tomorrow as a clipper system tops the ridge. This system is supporting strong WAA over the region today, with high centered upglide supporting a developing band of precip over the region this afternoon. Precip is fighting a very dry layer in the lower atmosphere, indicated by the 18Z UNR raob. However, this layer will eventually saturate with precip reaching the ground this evening on the Plains. Still expecting a good chance of icing across portions of NW SD, esp from Lemmon to Dupree where a tenth or so of ice is expected. Did trim back the adv in the far west given staunch WAA, which now supports a very narrow window of mixed precip across Harding and esp Butte Counties. Temps there should rise above freezing this evening and remain above freezing through the night. The other question mark will be Haakon County where precip chances look more limited with marginal profiles. Most places will see warm temps Thur ahead of the clipper with westerly flow supporting decent mixing. Expecting highs in the 50s and 60s across the southern half of the FA, warmest in SW SD. Coolest locations will be in NW SD. Cold front will settle into the region Thur afternoon/evening with temps falling through the night. Baroclinic zone will setup over the region and stall with several weak impulses agitating the flow and supporting rounds of light snow. Accums will range form 1 to 2 inches in the SW half to third with 2 to 4 inches across the NE half. Easterly upslope flow may allow for some enhancement in the BH foothills, esp given cold profiles supporting higher snow ratios. In addition, some upslope fog will also be possible Friday into Sat. Upper ridge begins to shift east Sunday with things warming back up next week, along with breezy conds as the nearby active northern stream supports traversing impulses, which could eventually bring another round of cold air toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued At 426 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 A band of mixed precipitation will move from northwest to southeast across the area tonight as the band slowly lifts northeast. Areas MVFR/IFR conditions will be associated with the strongest echoes over the Black Hills into northwestern SD through 11/12z. Mainly VFR conditions expected for a short period Thursday morning/early afternoon, but then MVFR/IFR conditions due to snow will develop late in the period and affect the entire area after 12/00z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for SDZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for SDZ002-013- 014-032-078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Helgeson ####018004300#### FXUS64 KLIX 102331 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 531 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Little or no rain expected through Saturday. - A strong cold front will bring low rain chances Sunday. - Colder weather to start off the next workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Dry conditions will persist through Friday night over the area as a consistent west and northwest flow pattern ushers in drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This dry airmass will keep PWATS below average through the period and little cloud development is anticipated until Friday when low level return flow may allow a few strato-cumulus clouds to form. Temperatures will gradually modify through the period as a surface high shifts to the east and low level southerly flow takes hold. Lows will drop quickly tonight into the 30s and 40s due to the clear skies and dry airmass in place, but the dry air will also allow temperatures to climb to near average by tomorrow afternoon. Another cool night will take place Thursday night as dry conditions continue with lows falling back into the 30s and 40s. However, the increased onshore flow on Monday will allow some warmer air to advect in, and this will raise highs to near 70. Moisture will also increase in the low levels, and the overnight lows will only cool into the 50s for Friday night. Will need to monitor for fog development Friday night as the dewpoints rise. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The northwest flow pattern will continue in the mid and upper levels on Saturday and Sunday helping to keep the airmass dry. However, a very potent cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday as a strong reinforcing shortwave feature dives into the eastern half of the CONUS from Canada. Although the moisture will be limited, there may be just enough forcing to spark off a few showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the front pushes through. Otherwise, this will be a dry frontal passage. Temperatures will plunge from near 70 on Saturday into the 50s and 60s on Sunday and then into the 50s on Monday. Lows will also crater with readings dropping into the 20s and 30s Sunday night and the 30s and 40s Monday night. The longwave trough will quickly depart by Tuesday as fast moving southern stream system approaches from the west. Deep layer onshore flow will form and warmfrontogenesis will take place over the area Tuesday night. This will support increased rain chances as the warm and moist air is isentropically forced over the still cooler and more stable surface layer. Increased positive vorticity advection and favorable jet structure will also support cloud and rain development over the region by Tuesday night. The NBM handles this well, and the forecast sticks with the NBM output in the extended period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this will hold through the forecast period. Winds will be shifting back to easterly to southeasterly throughout the day tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A cold front moving through the coastal waters will briefly increase winds and seas again tonight into Thursday, with 15 to 20 knot sustained winds expected over most waters. Another stronger front will move through the waters late in the weekend, with small craft advisory conditions expected Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 35 59 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 38 60 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 37 60 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 46 59 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 39 60 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 36 60 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...HL MARINE...PG ####018003005#### FXUS66 KLOX 102332 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 332 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS...10/1214 PM. A warm weather pattern will continue through the next week over much of the area, but some cooling will develop for late week a high pressure aloft weakens. A shallow marine layer depth will develop for the end of the week and could bring dense fog to the coastal areas. A warming trend will develop again for early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/1247 PM. Another warm day is occurring across southwestern California this afternoon. Daytime high temperatures are well above normal, so far, hovering close to record daily high values. Clear skies remain prevalent across the area as a strong blocking ridge of high pressure aloft continue to drive a warmer and drier weather pattern. A cooling trend should develop over the coming days as a weak trough will replace the ridge. The ridge axis should move over the region tonight or early Thursday morning and high pressure aloft should start to break down. Temperatures will likely remain above normal through the period as 500 mb heights do not drop enough. A return of onshore flow late this week should bring a return of low clouds and fog. A shallow marine layer depth looks likely to develop across the coast and dense fog could become an issue as we move forward into Friday and Saturday. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/109 PM. Ridging aloft will restablish early next week and likely strengthen through the week. A warming and drying trend will restablish early next week with temperatures likely going well above normal again by the middle of next week. Offshore flow is likely to redevelop again, although not as strongly as it was this week. && .AVIATION...10/2331Z. At 2217Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced based inversion with a top of 1300 ft and a temperature of 26 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. Any east wind component will be less than 7 knots. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. && .MARINE...10/115 PM. Localized Small Craft Advisory wind gusts are likely across the far NW portion of PZZ670 through this evening. Otherwise, high confidence in fairly calm conditions and lowering seas through this weekend. SCA level winds are likely to return across the Outer Waters south of Point Conception next week. Some dense fog will form in the coastal waters by Thursday or Friday, but low confidence on when and where. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018004230#### FXUS65 KPUB 102333 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 433 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and much warmer along/east of the mountains Thursday. - Dry conditions are expected for much of the region through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 211 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Windy again this afternoon over the central mountains with a few gusts to 50 kts over the higher passes from Monarch Pass northward. On the plains, cooler temps with less wind at many locations, though gap flow still blowing at Walsenburg (gusting to 35 kts), and some gusts 20-25 kts over the far southeast plains. Winds will diminish tonight over the higher terrain, though some gusty east slope breezes are possible through the night, as lee surface trough remains along I-25. While a few mountains/interior valleys will decouple and drop off into the teens/20s, winds will keep mins along and east of I-25 milder, mainly 30s/40s. On Thursday, deep mixing under continued northwest flow aloft will boost maxes well above seasonal averages, especially along and east of I-25, where 60s and 70s will be widespread, and even a near 80 degf possible over the far southeast around Springfield. Records for the 11th are fairly warm (79f at KPUB, 72f KCOS), and should be just out of reach as mid-level temps may be not be quite high enough. Mountains/interior valleys will see less warming than the plains, though still a 3-7 degf rise is likely as upper ridge builds slightly and mid level temps warm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 223 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday: For Thursday, quiet weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow will remain in place over the region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are expected. Otherwise, some breezy conditions are anticipated areawide with gusts around 20 mph, with pockets of mid to high level clouds streaming over the region. As for temperatures, a warm December day is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado, with much of the region warming to well above seasonal values due to downsloping winds. Given that, that plains will warm into the mid 60s to low 70s, the valleys into the upper 40s to 50s, and the mountains into the 30s and 40s. Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, quiet weather continues, even despite a brief pattern change. Thursday night through Sunday, northwesterly flow is expected to persist. Then for Monday and Tuesday, a brief pattern change is expected as a weak wave pushes over the area. Confidence in this pattern evolution remains high to very high (80-90%) given continued strong agreement from model guidance. With all that said, dry conditions will continue to prevail for most given the lack of major forcing, even with the wave passage. The exception to this may be along the central mountains Monday - Tuesday, where orographic forcing will become strong enough to allow for isolated snow showers to blossom. Beyond all of that, breezy conditions will persist, especially along the higher terrain, with mid to high level clouds also continuing. Looking at temperatures, a fluctuating stretch of days is anticipated for the plains through Sunday thanks to a couple of shallow cold fronts. With that said, the plains will remain above seasonal values, event despite the cold fronts. Elsewhere, temperatures are anticipated to remain more steady and above seasonal values. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 429 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Generally light wind regimes expected overnight, with breezy westerly gap winds developing west of COS and PUB overnight, and then developing at terminals between 16Z-18Z Thursday. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MW ####018005426#### FXUS63 KOAX 102333 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 533 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light, mixed-precipitation is possible (30-40% PoPs) near the SD border into west-central IA late tonight into Thursday morning. Minor ice accumulation could lead to minor travel impacts (10-20% chance). - Confidence is increasing (30-50% PoPs) in another round of light snow in northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa late Friday night and Saturday. There is a 20-50% chance of minor travel impacts in those areas. - Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning before warming again by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Tonight and Thursday: Mid-level heights are slowly building across the northern and central Plains this afternoon with that process continuing into tonight ahead of a low-amplitude disturbance that will move through the northern Plains Thursday. In the low levels, a surface ridge axis currently extending from the central Dakotas into the mid-MO Valley will build east of the area this evening with a warm-advection regime overspreading the area tonight into Thursday. Lift tied to that process will promote top-down saturation with a chance (15-25%) of light snow or flurries (or a very low probability of freezing sprinkles) developing across our western counties between 8 PM and midnight. Overnight into Thursday morning, the sustained warm advection will support the development of an above-freezing, warm nose in the 3-5 kft layer, which would result in the transition of any light snow to light freezing rain. The best potential for that occurrence (30-40% PoPs) is along the SD border into west- central IA where this forecast update will indicate the potential for a few hundredths of ice accumulation. Currently, there is a 10-20% chance of minor travel impacts in those areas. We will continue to monitor model and observational trends for the potential necessity of a Winter Weather Advisory later tonight. Any lingering, light precipitation is expected to end Thursday afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the far southwest part of our area to low 30s in the far northeast. Friday through Saturday night: A surface cold front is expected to push south through the area Thursday night ahead of a broad, Arctic high that will build from the northern High Plains into the mid-MO Valley during this time period. Aloft, another clipper system is forecast to move through the northern Plains and upper Midwest Saturday with an associated zone of mid-level frontogenesis supporting the development of a snow band from the Dakotas into IA. Current model solutions indicate the northern part of our area in the southern fringe of the snow band with this forecast update increasing PoPs to 30-50% Saturday. Snowfall amounts remain uncertain with the EPS and GEFS indicating generally a 20-40% chance of 3+" along the SD border into northwest IA. Accordingly, the probabilistic WSSI shows up to a 20-50% chance of minor travel impacts (i.e., snow-coverd roads) from northeast NE into west-central IA. Winds are expected to remain relatively light, which should limit the amount of blowing snow. As alluded to above, temperatures will turn colder with highs in the 20s and 30s Friday falling into the teens and 20s Saturday. Some single digits are even possible in our far northern counties. The coldest temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning when readings will range from the single digits above zero in southeast NE to as low as -10 in the Onawa, IA and Harlan, IA areas. Associated wind chills will be below zero with the lowest readings of -10 to -20 forecast in northeast and east-central NE into west-central and southwest IA. Sunday through Tuesday: The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in suggesting the progression of a flattening, mid-level ridge into the northern and central Plains Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, there is some model signal that a low-amplitude disturbance will move into the northern Plains. Those upper-air developments will translate to a warmer surface pattern. We will begin to see scouring of the Arctic air mass in our western counties Sunday, and by Monday and Tuesday, afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are in place across the three terminals this evening, with that expected to carry through the next 24 hours as winds shift southeasterly and then back westerly/northwesterly by the end of tomorrow. Lingering FEW clouds at FL025 near KOMA should drift off to the east, leaving mid/high clouds through the period, with a decaying snow band that dries up before arriving to KOFK bringing them back down for a little bit overnight. Additional chances for precipitation arrive late tomorrow morning, but will stay to the north of the TAF terminals. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Petersen ####018007340#### FXUS65 KCYS 102333 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 433 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The long duration high wind event will resume Wednesday morning in Carbon and Albany county, then spread into the I-25 corridor during the afternoon. Strong winds will last into Thursday evening. - The wind prone areas along I-80 and I-25 can expect another round of wind gusts between 70 and 80 mph. A few gusts exceeding 80 mph are possible. - Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins, and Wheatland can expect wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph, but occasional lulls or breaks in the high winds are expected with this round. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 The short term remains windy, with High Wind Warnings and Watches in effect for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones and wind prone adjacent areas. Most High Wind Warnings in effect have already verified, with locations like Arlington, Muddy Gap and the Laramie Valley nearly gusting above 60 MPH for most of the day already. Decided to keep the current High Wind Watches in place for Shirley Basin and Converse County. High winds look marginal in these areas, but could still be possible, so a quick upgrade could be needed if winds start to increase. A surface low in lee of the Laramie Range will keep MSLP gradients along and west of the Laramie Range steep, aiding in high winds overnight. For the most part, winds aloft overnight will range from 50 to 60 kts with strong subsidence helping push these winds down to the surface. There will likely be ebbs and flows with the wind overnight with periods of high winds and other times with lighter, more elevated wind gusts. Besides wind, a stationary front sagging over southwest South Dakota could send some light snow and rain showers to Dawes, Sioux and Niobrara Counties. The window for precipitation will be brief this afternoon and evening as a warm front is progged to move across the CWA overnight, ushering in drier air aloft. Between the warm front and the downsloping winds, overnight lows tonight are expected to be quite mild, with a few locations expected to set record high low temperatures. Mild temperatures will continue into Thursday, again in part because of the strong downsloping expected on top of +8C 700 mb temperatures behind the warm front! High temperatures, mainly east of the Laramie Range will be in the upper 50s and 60s. This is roughly 20 degrees above average for mid-December! Sidney and Alliance will be within a few degrees of tying their record highs. Now, back to the winds. High winds will continue through the day Thursday as the surface low in lee of the Laramie Range remains in place. As a result, MSLP gradients will remain steep with 70 kt winds aloft. Strong downward omegas will facilitate sending these winds down to the surface, with a mountain wave signature evident as well. Did add a High Wind Watch for East Laramie County during the day tomorrow as both strong winds and subsidence spread further east into the plains. Will also have to keep an eye on southern Goshen, Scotts Bluff, Banner, and Kimball Counties as well, since they may also briefly see high winds tomorrow. High winds will ease Thursday evening as a front moves across the area, turning winds more northerly. Behind the front, the northern zones of the CWA could see some precipitation. Rain will likely change to snow quickly with as strong of a cold front this is. Some snow accumulation will be possible, but how much will still need to be ironed out. Cooler, but less windy conditions are expected on Friday. Although winds won't be reaching high wind criteria, it will still be a blustery day across the southeast Wyoming wind prones. Snow showers will linger in the northern zones of the CWA, where a stationary boundary will be locked in place most of the day. Behind the front, temperatures will feel much cooler with most locations seeing highs in the 30s and 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Global ensembles all agree that northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a more zonal regime this weekend as western ridging breaks down and shifts east. With this will come some embedded shortwave activity Friday into Saturday rounding the crest of the ridge in the northern Rockies/northern plains and a swath of snow from Montana to the SD/NE/IA corridor. While this snow misses us it does bring increasing pressure gradients to the region with high winds looking likely for the wind prone areas (I80 and I25 near Bordeaux) Saturday. As the shortwave passes to the north/east on Saturday afternoon the attendant cold front will surge south across the high plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle helping to increase Craig to Casper 700mb height gradients upwards of 70m along with 700mb winds of 55kts. In house guidance shows a 50- 80% chance of meeting high wind criteria in the wind prones but does not show much of a signal for other areas increasing confidence that this will be a more typical event compared to the high winds of earlier this week. While wind remains relatively high confidence, the placement of the cold front remains mixed with considerable spread in temps for areas along the front range and the high plains. Spreads of 10-20F or more remain for any period from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon with highs anywhere from teens in the north to 30s in the south on the low end (25th percentile) to 30s in the north and 50s in the south on the high end (75th percentile). At least beyond Saturday there is slightly less spread in temps (only 10 degrees between the 25-75th) through Tuesday evening when another cold front looks to push south bringing temps slightly closer to average. More high elevation looks possible by mid next week as well but amounts look to stay on the low end (only a few inches) as we continue to play catch up with our season to date low mountain snowpack. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 433 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Winds continue to be a problem for Wyoming terminals this evening with strong winds persisting through the period. In Nebraska winds are going near calm and making prevailing directions variable through the night most likely. Winds will pick back up in the morning from the W/SW with LLWS common at all sites through Thursday morning at up to 50kts from the WNW. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Watch through Thursday afternoon for WYZ101-105. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ104-107-109- 113-115-118. High Wind Warning until midnight MST Thursday night for WYZ106- 117. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ110-116. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for WYZ119. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...WFOCYS AVIATION...WFOCYS ####018005310#### FXUS64 KOHX 102335 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 535 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Low to medium (up to 40%) snow accumulation chances on the Upper Cumberland Plateau tonight. Dusting to one half inch is the most likely outcome. - Another cold front will impact the region this weekend bringing the coldest air of the season is expected Saturday and Sunday night, with widespread lows in the teens. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Some sun. Some Clouds. Maybe even a little light rain across our northern tier of counties, but if you're outside, the bigger issue is probably the wind. It's still below Wind Advisory criteria and should stay there, but with temperatures in the 40s, it definitely feels cooler than that outside. Winds will continue to gust 20 to 35 mph through the afternoon hours and should begin to relax this evening after the cold front swings through here. Speaking of the cold front: Cumberland Plateau? I think you're going to see some snow tonight. After the front moves through, boundary layer winds swing to the northwest and create a perfect fetch for upslope flow leading to the orographic lift that can cause snow accumulations on the Upper Cumberland this time of the year. There are a couple of limiting factors involved. First is a question of the depth of moisture. HRRR soundings show saturation to -10C with starkly drier air above that. This could mitigate how much snow is possible. Additionally, temperatures this afternoon are expected to get into the mid to upper 40s. This could also affect snowfall totals. Because of these limiting factors, I'm going to refrain from issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for this area for now. HREF probs stand at 40% of seeing up to an inch in the usual spots (Monterrey, Jamestown). The NBM is even lower. For now, we'll message a dusting to half an inch between midnight and 8 am. However, those higher elevations could see up to an inch. What's the probability for more than an inch? 10%. Know that if this system overperforms, you may experience some road issues tomorrow morning on the Upper Cumberland -- and if you do get it, temperatures won't climb back above freezing until the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1046 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A large, upper level trough over the eastern half of the US is responsible for tonight's weather. This trough is expected to remain over New England for the next several days and during that time, spit out several shortwaves. The first is Thursday night, which will provide a good amount of snow to areas across the Ohio Valley. For us, surface high pressure should keep that stuff north of us. In fact, by Friday afternoon, temperatures look to climb back above normal once again. However, on Friday night, another dry frontal passage is expected and this is the one that is going to send us into a bitter cold spell for a few days. Temperatures will fall off about 10 degrees Saturday afternoon and that's just the start. Those temperatures that the NBM had in there a couple of days ago and backed off of? Yeah, they're back. Sunday morning lows are again expected to be in the mid to upper teens and Monday morning even colder. Some single digits will be possible in our usually colder spots Monday morning. To be fair, even though the NBM backed off yesterday, probs still stood at 50-70% of lows in the teens. Now they're closer to 90%. For me, this is all good news because it gives us a chance to dry out a bit. Our next chance of rain isn't until this time next week. So get those heavy jackets out of the moth balls. The cold air is acomin' this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The cold front has completed its passage through Middle TN, and winds are now out of the NW at all terminals. A thick MVFR cloud deck continues to fill into the area, and cigs between 020-025 are expected at all terminals overnight. VFR cigs look to return after 12Z with a few pockets of VFR cigs possible before then. Low chance of snow showers overnight at SRB and CSV, prob30 groups have been included in the taf for this. Gusts between 20-25 kts will relax over the next few hours with lighter winds anticipated overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 27 45 36 57 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 26 44 36 54 / 0 10 0 0 Crossville 25 38 28 51 / 40 30 0 0 Columbia 26 46 34 58 / 0 10 0 0 Cookeville 25 39 31 52 / 30 20 10 0 Jamestown 25 37 28 50 / 50 30 10 10 Lawrenceburg 25 45 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 26 44 34 57 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 26 43 35 55 / 0 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett