####018003654#### FXUS64 KFWD 102335 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 535 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures will return Thursday and Friday. - A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - Rain chances will tick upward toward the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Our forecasted cold front has now surged into Central Texas with gusty north winds up to 30 mph at times prevailing behind FROPA. Better cold-air advection will reside over the Southeast CONUS, but still expect temperatures to only top out in the low to mid 60s later this afternoon. Surface ridging will settle over the region later this evening with winds diminishing to calm-5 mph after 6PM. Light winds, clear skies and a dry airmass will allow for a night of efficient radiational cooling with temperatures expected to drop into the low to mid 30s by early Thursday morning. A few of our rural, low-lying locations may briefly dip below freezing around sunrise Thursday. Light south-southwest winds will return to North and Central Texas after midnight tonight increasing to 10-15 mph after sunrise Thursday morning. Afternoon highs should climb into the upper 60s to low 70s west of I-35 Thursday afternoon with low to mid 60s expected elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A series of cold fronts will push through the Southern Plains later this week and into the weekend. The first front (weaker) will arrive early Friday, with little to no rain chances and negligible temperature changes. The second, stronger frontal passage is expected to arrive late Saturday-early Sunday knocking high temperatures Sunday into early next week back into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Low rain chances are in the forecast across East Texas in the deeper PWAT airmass during this timeframe. More widespread precipitation may return to the region in the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe of next week as deterministic and ensemble guidance highlights increasing moisture return ahead of our next Southern Plains shortwave trough. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all North and Central Texas terminals. A post-frontal surface ridge is currently centered over the region with light and at times variable winds in place. Winds will become southerly before sunrise, increasing to around 10-12 kt by mid to late morning with occasional gusts possible by the afternoon. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Thursday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 38 65 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 37 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 33 60 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 31 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 34 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 39 65 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 34 63 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 37 65 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 34 66 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 34 70 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...12 ####018006703#### FXUS63 KDTX 102335 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 635 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s tonight. - A reinforcing shot of arctic air will arrive this weekend, sending wind chill readings into the single digits. Sub zero wind chills are expected Sunday morning. - There is a chance for a warming trend during the end of the forecast period; Tuesday into next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Post frontal northwest winds have taken over southeast Michigan this evening with a mix of MVFR and low VFR ceilings. Gusty winds of 25 to near 30 knots will be possible for the next hour or so with gusts then decreasing towards 20 knots through about 07Z tonight. Drier air is bringing these areas of low VFR ceilings, but expect the lake connection to maintain a decent coverage of MVFR ceilings along with isolated to scattered VFR snow flurries into tonight. MVFR to low VFR ceilings look to hold through much of the day tomorrow as winds become more westerly during the afternoon. MBS stands the best chance to see better scattered light snow showers continue during the first half of the day, but confidence too low to mention at this time given the more westerly wind component. For DTW...Light snow eventually tapers off later this evening, but a rapid drop in temperatures into the low 20s is expected with any leftover liquid on surfaces expected to freeze on any untreated surfaces. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through early Wednesday morning. Then medium through remainder of the day. * Moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold from 300-330 direction through 01z this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 DISCUSSION... Remnant mid level deformation associated with the departing upper wave will continue to rapidly weaken during the remainder of the afternoon as slight mid level ridging/brief mid level negative vorticity advection takes hold. This will bring an end to residual precip by early evening. Ongoing post frontal cold air advection within the gusty NNW winds will send temps into the 20s this evening, likely resulting in freezing of untreated wet surfaces. The advisories will be expired at 4 PM, with any potential evening freeze up being addressed through special weather statements. Cold air advection will persist through the night under continued northwest winds. A closed mid level low over NE Ontario will track into srn Quebec by Thurs afternoon. The circulation associated with this feature is what is driving the colder back across the region. Lake effect activity within the northwest flow tonight will largely remain out of Se Mi aside from a few stray snow showers into the thumb. The low level flow will back more westerly on Thursday. Limited inversion heights and an overall dry ambient airmass across srn Lake Mi will inhibit snow shower activity into se Mi. The expectation for at least some strato cu under the inversion and given 925mb temps forecast around -9C will warrant forecast highs mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Model solutions all indicate a good feed of Pacific moisture tracking from the Canadian Rockies into the Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday along the upper jet axis. A couple of short waves embedded within the flow and along a decent baroclinic zone will support at least a couple rounds of snow for mainly the Ohio Valley Thurs night, then again Saturday/Saturday night. Recent model runs have trended farther south with these systems, suggesting only a low chance that the northern edge of these system will brush the southern portions of Se Mi. An elongated upper low is forecast to advance across the northern lakes Fri night into Saturday. The lead edge of the mid level height falls will pass over Lower Mi Friday night. A brief interval of deep layer moisture moisture along a weak surface front and Lake Mi enhancement will support the next chance for show Friday night into Saturday morning. A brief interval of higher intensity snow showers off Lake Mi is possible late Fri night/Saturday morning before much drier air limits the inland extend of lake enhancement. Forecast amplification of this upper low across the Great Lakes over the weekend is expected to drive arctic air across the region. This will warrant well below normal temperatures (with single digit and some sub zero wind chills) which will last into Monday. Medium range model and probabilistic guidance suggests a more notable warming trend possible Tues into Wed of next week. MARINE... Low pressure has pushed through the area and is now located over Lake Ontario. The low pulled a cold front through this afternoon which allowed a cold airmass to surge in behind the front within the northwesterly flow causing a period of Gales across southern Lake Huron and the connecting nearshore zones. Though the general trend late this afternoon has been for less frequent gusts to gales, there are still enough observations to keep the Gale Warning in effect as we head into the evening hours to which we'll revisit this evening to see if we can cancel them a little early. Waves will continue to remain elevated through the overnight and into Thursday so we'll have to transition to Small Craft Advisories at some point. Surface ridge building in for Thursday evening/night will lead to much lighter winds, which should linger into Friday as a wave of low pressure track through the Ohio Valley. None-the-less, an Arctic front is on track to move through Friday night, with sporadic gusts to gales possible over Lake Huron during the weekend as 850 MB temps plummet to -20 C, supporting snow squalls and freezing spray as well. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ422. Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Thursday for LHZ363-462>464. Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....AA DISCUSSION...SC MARINE.......DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018009190#### FXUS61 KAKQ 102336 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 636 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses into the area tonight, with cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty still remains regarding the potential for additional light wintry precipitation, associated with multiple clipper systems late this week and again at the end of the weekend. A very cold start to next week will give way to relatively milder temperatures for the middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Clouds increase ahead of the cold front this afternoon/evening. - Cooler and dry weather conditions for tomorrow. Afternoon weather analysis shows strong troughing persisting over the area with SW flow aloft. At the surface, a sub 990mb low tracking across the Great Lakes and western NY. The cold front associated with this low is currently draped across Ohio. The pressure gradient ahead of the cold front has tightened through the day and winds have increased out of the SW with 25 to 30mph gusts. With the strong SW flow it has allowed for temperatures to warm up across the south where there has been some breaks within the clouds. While across the piedmont temperatures have struggled to warm due to the increased cloud cover and remaining snow. Nonetheless, temperatures are ranging between the low to mid 40s across the piedmont and upper 40s to low 50s across the SE. Later this afternoon and evening as the front approaches cloud cover will increase. There is also a slight chance of showers across the far north given the strong forcing. However, confidence is low at the time given decent dry air at the surface. As the cold front pushes through the area this evening winds will shift out of the WNW but will lower. Late tonight/early Thursday morning clouds will decrease allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. By Thursday the cold front will have finally pushed through the area and high pressure from the west will be moving into place over the area. Before the high moves into place breezy conditions will persist through the early part of the day with gusts between 20 to 25 mph across the area with some possible 30 mph gusts across the MD Eastern Shore where the pressure gradient is stronger. Skies will remain mostly clear to clear as the dry weather persist from the high pressure. Temperatures will be cooler with highs only reaching into the low to middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - A weak clipper system is possible Friday. - Dry and Slightly Warmer Saturday. There continues to remain some uncertainty with the possible clipper system on Friday. Models continue to show a weak shortwave and low pressure system moving out of the northern Plains into our area producing light snow across the far west. Models continue to show disagreement with this incoming system. Some of the deterministic short range models and the GEFS show the snow showers across the far NW. While the ECMWF continues to hint on a southerly trend. With this uncertainty decided to nudge pops up slightly across the south but still remains between 20 to 35%. Now in terms in how much snow could fall still remains uncertain. This is again due to the disagreement from the models and depends on where a weak FGEN band sets up. The Ecmwf probs for 1" of snow continue to lower and are now between 20 to 30% while the GEFS has increased and are between 40 to 50%. At this time, have decided to keep snow totals confined and less than .5" inch across the far NW. Trends in the model data will continue to be monitored. After the clipper system Friday strong NW flow aloft will persist over the area with a high pressure moving in place at the surface. Dry weather conditions will remain in place with slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 40s across the north and low 50s across the south. Saturday night lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Wednesday... - Another Arctic cold front crosses into the region on Sunday, ushering in a much colder airmass Sunday night and Monday., Lows in the mid teens to mid 20s Sunday night and mid to upper 30s are forecast for Monday. Some light precipitation is possible with the Arctic frontal passage. - Temperatures quickly moderate from Tuesday through the middle of next week. Recent 12z models are continuing to bring a strong cold front across the area as a arctic high pressure moves out of Canada late Sunday. Models have continued to increase on precipitation chances with the cold front that could lead some wintry precipitation especially across the NE portion of the CWA. However, there still remains little uncertainty due to timing. With the models increasing with precipitations pops have also increased and are between 25 to 40%. By Sunday night a strong high pressure will move into place ushering in Arctic temperatures. Lows Monday AM are expected to plummet into middle to upper teens and low 20s along the coast, with chilly highs Monday in the 30s. However, there is improving consensus that cold high pressure quickly slides offshore Tue-Wed, portending a gradual warmup for much of the mid to late week period next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 635 PM EST Wednesday... A cold front crosses the area this evening, although VFR is expected for the entire period. Mid-high clouds persist through tonight, before mainly clear/sunny skies return for Thursday. The only area of concern through about 06z is southwesterly low-level wind shear as a low-level jet remains over the area. SW ~10 kt winds overnight shift to the W/WNW at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt later Thursday morning and afternoon. Outlook: An approaching disturbance could trigger some light rain or snow Friday into Friday night (best chance for snow across the far N), with intermittent flight restrictions possible. Another cold front could bring light precip on Sunday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles this afternoon and evening, with SCAs are in effect for the remainder of the marine area as a cold front crosses the coast. - Another strong cold front is expected to cross the coast later Sunday. 990mb low pressure is centered over Lake Ontario with a cold front trailing back through the Appalachians. The wind is SW 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt, and 25-30kt with gusts to 35-40kt N for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles. Seas range from 4-5ft S to 5-8ft N with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A SW wind should remain at similar speeds for the next few hours in advance of the cold front, which crosses the coast later this evening. The wind should become W and diminish as the cold front moves through, and then becomes NW later tonight into early Thursday as CAA increases, but wind speeds should remain sub- gale. Gale Warnings remain in effect through 10PM with SCAs in effect elsewhere. SCAs run through 7PM for the upper rivers, the Currituck Sound through 4 AM Thu, the lower James through 7AM Thu, the southern coastal waters through 10AM Thu, the lower Bay through 1PM Thu, and the middle Bay through 4PM Thu. High pressure briefly returns Thursday aftn into Thursday night. A weakening low pressure system and cold front cross the region Friday night. High pressure then settles over the Southeast Saturday. Sub- SCA conditions are expected to prevail Thursday aftn through at least Saturday. A strong cold front crosses the coast later Sunday into Sunday night with high pressure returning Monday. At least SCA conditions are expected based on the 10/12z guidance, with quite high probabilities for gale conditions over the coastal waters, and lesser, but still notable gale gust probs for the Ches. Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ638. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM NEAR TERM...HET SHORT TERM...HET/MAM LONG TERM...HET/MAM AVIATION...SW MARINE...AJZ ####018004924#### FXUS64 KEWX 102336 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 536 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions continuing through the afternoon before winds lessen this evening. - Above normal temperatures for the end of the week. - Dry weather persisting for most of South-Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Breezy winds continue to spread across the area as a batch of stronger momentum trailing behind a cold front diffuses over South- Central Texas. Gusts mainly within the 20 to 30 mph range should persist through the afternoon but will start to taper as the high momentum air mixes out. Surface high pressure in the wake of the cold front will steadily move across South-Central Texas tonight. Winds are expected to weaken to a near calm for most of the area, combining with clear skies and dry conditions for a night of efficient radiational cooling. Morning lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s. Most should stay above freezing, though there may be an isolated patchy dip into the low 30s in low-lying drainage areas in the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. A southerly flow returns Thursday with ample sunshine continuing, though slightly cooler low-level temperatures will keep highs generally around 70. The impact of those southerly winds will be better felt by Thursday night, with overnight lows only reaching the mid 40s to low 50s as Gulf moisture boosts dew points, including medium chances (around a 40 to 60 percent chance) of some advection fog Thursday night into Friday morning over the Coastal Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Persistently southerly to southwesterly flow entering this weekend will support high temperatures reaching levels well above seasonable for Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s over most of the CWA. A weak front could approach the area Saturday and moderate temperatures slightly, but above average warmth is still anticipated. Moist southerly flow continuing at the low-levels may support a few isolated showers primarily over the Coastal Plains Saturday. A stronger cold front is forecast to arrive from the north Sunday, bringing cloudier skies and more noticeably cooler air and breezy conditions. The coldest air will be well to our northeast (over the Midwest and eastern US), so temperatures for our area mostly drop to seasonable to slightly cooler than seasonable levels for Sunday and Monday with a low chance (up to 20 percent) of a freeze Monday morning. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible along and ahead of the front Sunday south of I-10, but the drawn out frontal surface, lack of strong frontogenesis, and weak synoptic forcing keeps rain chances low... around 20 to 30 percent mainly for the Rio Grande Plains. Ridging aloft rebuilds over the area Tuesday, facilitating a warming trend starting Tuesday. Ensembles are in fair agreement that a disturbance currently over the open eastern Pacific will reach the southern US by about midweek. This supports an increase in rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, though uncertainties with timing keeps rain probabilities low (around 20 percent) for the time being. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Gusty winds were still noted at AUS in the 23Z MTR, but the gusts should be dying down any time now, given the surrounding observations. Light N winds will settle to be L/V toward daybreak and the return flow wind directions will hit DRT by daybreak and the other 3 sites by midday. Only a few high level clouds are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 41 69 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 38 69 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 41 68 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 37 68 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 41 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 37 68 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 38 69 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 38 69 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 40 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 42 68 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 43 69 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...18 ####018004503#### FXUS64 KCRP 102338 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 538 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Weak, dry frontal passage this afternoon. - Gradual warm-up through the weekend ahead of the next cold front on Sunday. - Patchy to areas of fog possible inland and across the coastal waters beginning Thursday night and continuing through the weekend. - Low to medium chance for rain this weekend ahead of Sunday cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A weak cold front is expected to move through this afternoon, bringing a brief push of cool, dry air across the region. Given the very limited available moisture, no precipitation is expected with the boundary. However, its passage will reinforce light northerly flow and allow temperatures tonight and Thursday to run a few degrees lower than what we've experienced the past 24 hours or so. Also on Thursday, reinforcing surface high pressure behind the weak front will shift eastward, allowing winds to turn east- southeasterly. This will initiate a modest return of Gulf moisture and weak WWA, gradually increasing temperatures back above normal into the upper 70s to low 80s. This increasing low-level humidity will likely support fog development during the overnight and early morning hours beginning Thursday night. This includes sea fog as well if light winds and cooler shelf waters persist. A stronger cold front is expected to propagate through sometime Sunday. Moderate moisture will pool ahead of the boundary, and lift should be sufficient to produce a low chance (20-40%) of isolated to scattered showers. Cooler and drier air will settle over the region behind the front on Sunday night into Monday. Lows Monday morning will likely fall into the mid-40s to mid-50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, with daytime highs returning to slightly below seasonal averages. Conditions will remain quiet and dry through the day Monday before onshore flow reestablishes itself, allowing moisture to steadily increase again by Tuesday. Another weak disturbance may approach the region around this time, bringing another low-end chance (~20%) for rain to portions of the eastern Coastal Plains. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Light northerly winds are expected tonight as a surge of high pressure continues to move into South Texas. By tomorrow afternoon around 16-19z, winds will shift back to the south to southeast but remain light. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Gentle to moderate winds (BF 3-4) will shift to the north-northeast this evening as a weak frontal boundary pushes through the region. Behind this front, a reinforcing surge of high pressure moves in, allowing for onshore winds to return late Thursday and continue into the weekend. With onshore flow resulting in elevated moisture, sea fog potential increases as we head into the weekend with the best chances of fog being during the overnight and morning hours. Rain chances remain next to none through the remainder of the workweek before a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms returns this weekend ahead of our next frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will dip below 30% through Thursday across portions of the Brush Country. However, due to generally low ERCs in the 50-70th percentile and weak winds of 5-10 mph, elevated fire weather conditions remain negligible at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 51 70 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 41 71 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 48 73 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 46 72 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 51 67 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 42 71 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 49 72 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 56 67 62 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...JCP/84