####018003579#### FXUS64 KAMA 062306 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 506 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 This afternoon, strong westerly winds in the southwestern Texas Panhandle may create some minor adverse conditions for certain outdoor activities. Typical breezy winds can be expected throughout the rest of the area. Fire weather conditions should remain near or below elevated in the southwest today. Continue to practice fire safety in those areas and obey burn bans. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The main highlights of the short term this period are the fluctuating temperatures and wind speeds. Today, a tight surface pressure gradient wind amplify winds across the CWA. The southwest Texas Panhandle should experience the strongest wind speeds today, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. A surface low will develop over the region later today, ahead of the incoming cold front. This will help wind speeds decrease later this evening. There are some concerns that wind speeds could be lighter overall today given how RAP Mesoanalysis shows observed winds lower and MSL pressure broader than the RAP forecast. Winds will still increase as the day progresses, but they might not get as strong as previous forecast or for nearly as long. Later this evening, a cold front will move in and winds will become light and northerly. Highs today should reach the 60's area wide, but temperatures will decrease quickly behind the front. Tomorrow, highs are expected to return to near average values in the 40's and 50's. Though sky coverage is expected to remain mostly clear, surface winds should prevail from the north through most of the day. Unlike today, wind speeds are forecast to be much lighter overall throughout the CWA. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 103 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The general pattern in the extended still consists of benign weather with a couple of cold fronts to help us stay in range of our average highs for the season. 500 mb heights show high pressure building over the western CONUS this upcoming week. This will force upper level trough activity further east, leaving our FA in the middle of this activity. High temperatures will be bound to the 50's and 60's, while morning lows will rise from 20's to 30's by the midweek. Some models like the operational GFS hint at a cold airmass settling further west into the region by next weekend, but there still isn't much consistency amongst long range models to definitively anticipate a more substantial cool down. The lack of moisture advection will also keep weather conditions dry in the extended. Surface winds will have to be monitored on a day-to-day basis if fire weather conditions become more prevalent. Rangel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours. A cold front will move in this evening and low-level wind shear will be possible behind the front for a brief period of time at KAMA and KDHT. Otherwise, winds weaken through tonight and remain weak through Sunday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...52 ####018005361#### FXUS66 KLOX 062306 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 306 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...06/154 PM. Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a low chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast. A significant warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday persisting through much of the week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...06/154 PM. Pretty quiet weather this afternoon with clear skies and no marine layer present. Surface observations show a few gusty ridgetops across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges (20-30 mph). Winds will increase later this afternoon and evening across these locations, but should remain below advisory levels. There is a low chance for a return of a shallow marine layer to the LA coast tonight into Sunday morning. Maximum Temps will warm a few to several degrees (esp. across coasts & valleys) through Monday. By Monday, most areas will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Moderate SMX-BFL offshore gradients will result in gusty sub- advisory winds across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges through Monday. ECMWF guidance suggests LAX- DAG gradients peak around -4 mb Monday afternoon. The Santa Susana mountains will likely have the best chance for a borderline wind advisory as guidance currently depicts. Deterministic cross-sections indicate that rising heights from the ridge building in from west combined with established offshore gradients should be sufficient enough to keep the marine layer well offshore by Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC are in general agreement with well above normal temperatures peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Max Temps will warm another 2 to 4 degrees on average from Monday. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...06/154 PM. The GFS and EC are in general agreement on very warm conditions with steady offshore flow with moderate strength at times. In combination with 500mb heights varying between 583mb and 586mb, it is expected that the marine layer will stay well offshore. These heights are about 15 dam higher than the normal value of 571. From Tuesday thru Thursday, max temperatures are generally expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal for immediate coastline, 10-15 degrees for inland coasts & valleys, and 15-18 locally 20 degrees across interior valley and mountain locations. Translates into around 70 degrees for immediate coastline, mid 70s to low 80s inland coasts, mid 80s for favored locations such as San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Ojai, and Santa Ynez valley floors. Interior mtn locations above 5,000 ft may struggle getting out of the 60s. The ensemble suites indicate there might be slight cooling on Friday but temperatures should remain well above normal. We will have a better idea of temps over the next few days as we get closer. There may be some cooling next weekend but max temps are expected to remain well above normal especially across the interior. There may be a return shallow marine layer influence across the coastal sections but guidance is in disagreement with how quickly the offshore gradients weaken and how much 500mb heights fall. && .AVIATION...06/2304Z. At 2210Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For late tonight/Sunday morning, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KLAX and KLGB. KLAX...Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. From 09Z-16Z, there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions. No significant easterly wind component is expected through forecast period. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF with CAVU conditions expected. && .MARINE...06/154 PM. For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions expected at times through much of next week, especially across the north and western portions of PZZ670/673 during the afternoon and evening hours. Inside the southern California bight, high chance of winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday night. Moderate chance of offshore winds from Ventura through Santa Monica through Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests winds and seas should remain below SCA levels thereafter through the work week. There is a low chance of dense fog over the coastal waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties tonight through tomorrow morning. Confidence remains low on timing and coverage. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Black AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...Black weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018002687#### FXUS63 KDDC 062309 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 509 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue through mid-week. - Colder temperatures tonight with a warming trend likely early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is edging eastward across extreme southeast Colorado. Dry conditions are forecast early in the period as the SREF shows an embedded shortwave within the northwest flow aloft transitioning east-southeast through the Central Plains this evening, pushing a weak cold front farther southeast through southwest/south central Kansas into Western Oklahoma this evening. With much drier air overspreading and dominating the region within prevailing westerly downsloping through early next week, precip chances are likely to remain absent through at least mid-week. Near normal temperatures are likely tonight as colder air filters slowly south into western Kansas in wake of the frontal passage by this evening, pushing the 0C isotherm as far south as west central/central Kansas. Look for widespread lows in the 20s(F) with the HREF pointing to a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 30F. Surface high pressure sliding southeast through the Upper Midwest will reinforce a colder air mass across the high plains of western Kansas within a east- northeast upslope flow Sunday, supporting H85 temperatures holding around 0C in central Kansas to near 5C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the latest HREF painting less than a 10% probability of temperatures exceeding 40F in central Kansas to better than a 90% probability of topping 45F near the Colorado line, expect afternoon highs struggling to climb out of the 30s(F) in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to near 50F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures bounce back a little Monday and Tuesday with a developing lee side trough helping bring back southwesterly downsloping to southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period. Northerly winds will lighten through tonight and remain muted into Sunday 5-10 knots. Some clouds will be possible at times, but none that will have much in the way of impact to aviation. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Bennett ####018004341#### FXUS63 KFGF 062309 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 509 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active pattern with several weak systems this weekend and early next week, bringing light snow chances. 50 percent chance of over an inch of snow in northwestern Minnesota Monday. - Stronger low coming in on Tuesday, with a 70 percent chance for at least minor impacts and some mixed precipitation possible in southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...Synopsis... The parade of clipper shortwaves continues, with one passing by in eastern SD currently and the next one coming into eastern MT tonight. That weak MT shortwave will move into the Dakotas on Sunday, and an even stronger shortwave looks to dive down out of Manitoba into northern MN on Monday. The strongest shortwave will come in on Tuesday, with some strong cold air advection behind it on Wednesday. The active pattern does not let up, with another shortwave coming through Thursday and another reinforcing shot of cold air Friday as upper low digs into the Upper Midwest. Northwesterly flow and cold high pressure continue into Saturday. ...Active pattern weekend into Monday... More rounds of light snow and flurries are expected to continue for the rest of the weekend and beginning of the work week. Sunday's system continues to show fairly light QPF, which fits with the dry layer around 850mb on model soundings. Not saturated enough at the surface for freezing drizzle, but can't rule out a few flakes reaching the ground, ranging from a trace to a few tenths of an inch. The shortwave digging out of Canada on Monday, however, has been trending a bit more impressive, with models showing signs of mid-level frontgenesis. It will be fairly quick moving, and currently HREF has 50 percent probabilities of an inch or more of snow over northwestern MN, but much lower chances (10 to 15 percent) for over 3 inches. At this point, another sub-advisory clipper seems most likely, but will continue to monitor. ...More substantial snow Tuesday... Ensembles still are in pretty good agreement on a fairly vigorous shortwave digging into the Red River Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday. There are still some 50 to 100 mile differences in the exact track of the surface low, which will have an affect on impacts. The strongest QPF chances look to be on the leading edge of the system with warm air advection, and it is possible that portions of our southern counties could even see some rain mixing in with snow. A lot of questions for how much this will impact blowability of the snow later as cold air advection kicks in behind the system Tuesday night. Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index continues to have around 70 percent chance for minor/advisory level impacts. Chances for 6 inches or more of snow for warning are lower, around 15 percent. However, will have to watch with the winds picking up and blowing any new snow around. At this point the overlap between expected strongest winds and heaviest snow is not good, but could always have some problems with lingering snow showers and strong winds into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. For now, will continue to have a general messaging strategy with what we know and what we don't know, and leave probability graphics for a bit later. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Pockets of MVFR ceilings will linger through the first few hours of the TAF period, but an entering surface high should clear us out for the most part barring lingering stratus. Accompanying these clouds will be pockets of flurries and periodic drops to MVFR visibilities are possible, particularly at FAR. After this clears out, expect VFR conditions to take hold with light and variable winds. As the surface high moves off after 18z tomorrow, southeasterly winds will increase but will remain below 10 knots sustained at least until 21z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux