####018003310#### FXUS64 KLUB 062310 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 510 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 508 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Dry conditions and above seasonal normal temperatures expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Southwesterly winds have already ramped up, especially on the Caprock, in response to the development of a lee surface cyclone. Some WTM stations on the Caprock have measured wind speeds above 30 mph and gusts at or just above 40 mph. Breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through later this afternoon, however are expected to remain just below Wind Advisory Criteria. Although, some localized areas could experience Wind Advisory level speeds. With breezy winds comes the possibility for blowing dust. Patchy blowing dust will be possible this afternoon across the Caprock where the strongest winds are expected. WAA from the gusty southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow current temperatures in the 50s to continue to warm to the 60s to lower 70s across the region. Winds are expected to decrease this evening as the surface low pushes southeast, weakening the pressure gradient. Concurrently, as the low pushes southeast of the CWA, a weak cold front will push southward through the region. Light northerly winds behind the front will prevail overnight and through most of Sunday. Increasing dewpoints behind the front and moderate northerly winds overnight will keep temperatures warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 20s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 30s to lower 40s over southern Rolling Plains. Weak CAA will cool temperatures Sunday to seasonal normal with highs in the 50s expected across the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 No change to the long term forecast with warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the work week as back-toback troughs translate over the Great Lakes region and upper ridging builds over the Pacific, just off the coast of SoCal. Could see some breezy south- southwesterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday as a lee surface trough is expected to develop, tightening the pressure gradient each afternoon. Prevailing southwesterly winds will allow temperatures to warm to the 60s and 70s for much of the work week. Models indicate a cold front will push through the region sometime Thursday. This should cool temperatures back to seasonal normal with highs in the 50s for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Will run with VFR conditions this TAF cycle. There is a low to moderate chance of a brief period of stratus and/or fog at KCDS as low level moisture wraps in behind a cold front late this evening. Diminishing wind speeds will occur at KLBB and KPVW early this evening ahead of said front. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07 ####018005363#### FXUS66 KLOX 062312 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 312 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...06/154 PM. Benign weather will continue through the weekend with a low chance of morning low clouds and fog along the Los Angeles coast. A significant warming trend will begin Sunday with temperatures well above normal Monday through next Friday, peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Offshore winds will increase Sunday and Monday persisting through much of the week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...06/154 PM. Pretty quiet weather this afternoon with clear skies and no marine layer present. Surface observations show a few gusty ridgetops across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges (20-30 mph). Winds will increase later this afternoon and evening across these locations, but should remain below advisory levels. There is a low chance for a return of a shallow marine layer to the LA coast tonight into Sunday morning. Maximum Temps will warm a few to several degrees (esp. across coasts & valleys) through Monday. By Monday, most areas will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Moderate SMX-BFL offshore gradients will result in gusty sub- advisory winds across the Santa Lucia and La Panza ranges through Monday. ECMWF guidance suggests LAX- DAG gradients peak around -4 mb Monday afternoon. The Santa Susana mountains will likely have the best chance for a borderline wind advisory as guidance currently depicts. Deterministic cross-sections indicate that rising heights from the ridge building in from west combined with established offshore gradients should be sufficient enough to keep the marine layer well offshore by Monday afternoon. The GFS and EC are in general agreement with well above normal temperatures peaking Tuesday through Thursday. Max Temps will warm another 2 to 4 degrees on average from Monday. .LONG TERM (TUE-SAT)...06/154 PM. The GFS and EC are in general agreement on very warm conditions with steady offshore flow with moderate strength at times. In combination with 500mb heights varying between 583mb and 586mb, it is expected that the marine layer will stay well offshore. These heights are about 15 dam higher than the normal value of 571. From Tuesday thru Thursday, max temperatures are generally expected to be 5-10 degrees above normal for immediate coastline, 10-15 degrees for inland coasts & valleys, and 15-18 locally 20 degrees across interior valley and mountain locations. Translates into around 70 degrees for immediate coastline, mid 70s to low 80s inland coasts, mid 80s for favored locations such as San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Ojai, and Santa Ynez valley floors. Interior mtn locations above 5,000 ft may struggle getting out of the 60s. The ensemble suites indicate there might be slight cooling on Friday but temperatures should remain well above normal. We will have a better idea of temps over the next few days as we get closer. There may be some cooling next weekend but max temps are expected to remain well above normal especially across the interior. There may be a return shallow marine layer influence across the coastal sections but guidance is in disagreement with how quickly the offshore gradients weaken and how much 500mb heights fall. && .AVIATION...06/2304Z. At 2210Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all sites. For late tonight/Sunday morning, there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KLAX and KLGB. KLAX...Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU conditions. From 09Z-16Z, there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions. No significant easterly wind component is expected through forecast period. KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF with CAVU conditions expected. && .MARINE...06/154 PM. For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands beyond 10 NM offshore of the Central Coast, low-end Small Craft Advisory conditions expected at times through much of next week, especially across the north and western portions of PZZ670/673 during the afternoon and evening hours. Inside the southern California bight, high chance of winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through Monday night. Moderate chance of offshore winds from Ventura through Santa Monica through Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests winds and seas should remain below SCA levels thereafter through the work week. There is a low chance of dense fog over the coastal waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange Counties tonight through tomorrow morning. Confidence remains low on timing and coverage. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Black AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...Black weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox