####018004947#### FXUS65 KPIH 070905 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 305 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday Another cold windy day is expected across eastern Idaho today. Highs will likely top out only in the 40s today for most, although some lower 50s may be realized in parts of the Snake Plain. Things are looking up however as a drastic warm-up is expected beyond today. Before we get there though, we'll have more clouds, precip and wind to contend with today. A Wind Advisory continues until later this evening. As expected, winds have dipped below criteria this morning but should pick back up over the next few hours and last throughout the day. Precipitation today will be much more showery in nature compared to the past few days but the highest PoPs will be across the eastern highlands. Could see some rumbles of thunder there as well but this isn't likely to be the norm. Some additional light accumulations of snow will be possible in the eastern highlands and to a lesser extent into the central mountains. Another frost advisory or freeze warning will be possible tonight and into Wed AM as temperatures will remain below normal. There area will remain in a cold N/NE flow aloft tomorrow but the influence of the upper low will start to diminish somewhat and throughout the day, we'll see signs of the weather pattern starting to transition. Temps will stay well below normal but will be warmer than Tuesday while skies slowly start to clear out a bit from west to east. Some high elevation PoPs will linger in the forecast on Wednesday but we'll have to wait until Thu before things noticeably improve going forward. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Thu through Mon An upper level ridge-trough pattern, rotated 90 degrees clock- wise sits over the Great Basin at the start. This has a dry, and potentially cool east to northeasterly airflow. The trough eventually becomes a close low over the southwestern states, with more northerly airflow over the forecast area. It is weak flow and continued dry by Fri. On Sun, the close low edges slowly northward and may bring instability showers and thunderstorm on Mother's Day. On Mon, a trough from the coast moves through this pattern and breaks it up, bringing showers and thunderstorms again. The movement of the Sun low and the Mon trough are by no means certain; the clusters indicate an extremely weak pattern that sometimes has a discernible trough, sometimes no. Temperature-wise, the clear skies and subsidence provides strong warming with temperatures around climatic normals Thu night/Fri, then continued warming to Sun with the onset of moisture and then the approaching trough. All this does is level off the warm-up starting Sunday, when Snake River plain/eastern Magic Valley highs will be middle 70s to around 80. Breezy northeast wind on Thu subsides during the middle period, then a west to southwest breezy wind kicks in for Sun/Mon during the afternoons. Messick && .AVIATION... VFR conditions in place across the area this morning although some occasional lower CIGs may briefly impact terminals in and around showers this morning. Precipitation today will be more showery in nature so will maintain VCSH wording for much of the period given the "hit-or-miss" nature of things. Winds remain the biggest impact to aviation with another breezy day anticipated. KBYI and KPIH will be the windiest locations but no one will be spared from winds gusting 20+ kts throughout much of the daylight hours today, closer to 40 kts at BYI and PIH though. Things slowly begin to improve as we move into Wednesday with winds lessening and CIGs slowly improving and precip diminishing a bit. McKaughan && .HYDROLOGY... Area rivers remain elevated today, with the Portneuf and Blackfoot Rivers remaining the trouble spots of the day with Flood Warnings continuing. Cool temperatures and ongoing periods of showers (snow at higher elevations) will continue to slightly mitigate snowmelt runoff. Periods of showers will continue to provide additional water into the basins, mainly snow at mid slope and higher elevations. Blackfoot River levels look to stay at Minor Flood for the foreseeable future. Portneuf forecast trends continue to produce a temporary nudge back close to the low-end Moderate Flood category, then drop back into persistent Minor Flood for several days. The cold temperatures and consistent unsettled conditions should keep East Idaho waterways high, fast and cold through the week. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051-054>057. Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055. && $$ ####018004111#### FXUS64 KLCH 070906 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 406 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Continued elevated winds have kept clouds off the ground this morning, but in a pretty solid low level ceiling. The combination of tropical winds and cloud cover is yielding very warm minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this morning more reminiscent of August than early May. Both the breezy winds and cloud cover should prevail through most of the day. CAMS guidance has been overly enthusiastic about precip development through nearly the entire day one period and these were heavily discounted as unrepresentative. A weak boundary will push through parts of the ArkLaTex region through the day so not completely ruling out a stray shower or thunderstorm across parts of central Louisiana this afternoon in response to that, but wasn't confident enough in that to even include isolated PoPs at this time. No significant changes to the pattern expected through Wednesday as consistent west southwesterly flow aloft will keep the mid and upper levels dry enough to prevent precipitation. The low responsible for the ongoing severe weather outbreak across the plains will continue to work east, but keep the pressure gradient tight enough locally to keep winds between 10 and 15 knots through Wednesday night. A late season cold front will swing quickly through the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night initializing scattered convection as it does so. Owing primarily to the saturated ground, WPC has highlighted areas away from the coast in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. That said, forecast QPF accumulation is pretty unimpressive and this event does not look to pose a significant flash flood concern. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Seasonable and fair weather can be expected for most of the long term. As the period kicks off on Friday, the cold front will be off to our east with an area of high pressure building into the Plains. Cooler and drier air will move in, with near and slightly below normal climatological temperatures. (MaxTs in the 80s, MinTs in the 60s.) Dewpoints will be in the 50s to 60s for the duration of the period leading to less humid/muggy conditions. As the high pressure slips off to the east Sunday and into Monday, we will see southerly flow return to the area. While temps and dewpoints will rebound, they will do so slowly. Model guidance is still a bit murky going into the next work week, however we could see some low end rain chances with a weak coastal trough moving across the Gulf and with a disturbance moving over the Rockies and into the Plains. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 MVFR/IFR overnight into Tuesday morning with breezy winds as well. On Tuesday, CIGs will struggle to lift/break up with MVFR or even IFR through much of the afternoon. There could be some brief breaks to VFR during the afternoon, however confidence is low. SFC winds will remain breezy through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet will prevail today and tomorrow. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 72 91 71 / 10 0 0 10 LCH 83 74 86 74 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 88 76 89 76 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 85 74 87 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...66 ####018004054#### FXUS63 KOAX 070909 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 409 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening northeast Nebraska and western Iowa - Light showers and a few rumbles of thunder linger through the end of the work week, with drier conditions and highs in the 70s returning for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Today: Complex of thunderstorms that brought severe weather to the area has moved well east of the forecast area. Surface cold front and pre-frontal trough located across western periphery of forecast area. Low level moist advection continues. Combined with wet soils from Tuesday night rains, there is a small window for for development early this morning given clearing skies across the area. Will monitor over the next few hours, but left mention of any patchy fog out of the forecast for now. A quiet day weatherwise is expected today. A broad H5 trough will be in place across the northern plains, anchored by a closed H5 low over the Dakotas. Weak disturbances rotating around the trough, aided by diabatic heating will aid in the development of isolated to scattered sprinkles/showers this afternoon into early evening. Seasonal temperatures are expected. Tonight: Aforementioned H5 low and trough syncs with North Atlantic vortex and digs south-southeast overnight as upper level jet rotates around base of vortex. This will allow for isentropic ascent and sharpening midlevel flow. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to develop, though dry low level may limit precipitation from reaching the ground. Wednesday: Upper low begins to eject northeastward during the day on Wednesday, with a broad upper level jet of 50-70 knots persisting through the day, resulting in bulk shear 35-45kts. Expect mid- level lapse rates to increase, especially across northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa as cold-core from upper low moves across the area. At the surface, an inverted trough will move across the forecast area, advecting a narrow band of greater thetae into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A few of the CAMS develop a narrow ribbon of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE. In tandem, expected thunderstorm develop during the afternoon, with possibility of isolated severe storms. HREF hinting at potential for a few rotating storms. Increased clouds and precipitation chances will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler, especially northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Thursday-Friday: Upper low transitions to open wave as it completes syncing with North Atlantic trough. Cyclonic flow will remain in place across the area, continuing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday. Low level cold advection will keep temperatures in the 60s. A more pronounced shortwave feature drops southward from northern plains on Friday afternoon. Downslope low level flow will help bump temperatures back into the 70s for highs. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm development again will be possible, possibly a little more vigorous as passage of shortwave will occur during peak diabatic heating. Saturday Onward: Upper level ridging builds across the area, bringing an end to precipitation chances. Seasonal temperatures are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Strong to severe storms will continue to push east of the forecast area tonight. VFR conditions will prevail behind the departing storms. Light WSW winds will become gusty after 15Z tomorrow, occasionally reaching speeds of 20-30kts. Winds will weaken again to under 12kts after 00Z Tuesday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fortin AVIATION...KG ####018005042#### FXUS61 KRNK 070910 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 510 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Thursday. Cooler and drier weather returns by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) Potential thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. A few showers still remain throughout the area this morning, but coverage and intensity of these showers have been on a downtrend. Expect most showery activity to subside by daybreak. Fog will begin to develop again as skies clear, and could be dense in some locations. Lows this morning remain mild in the upper 50s/low 60s. Upper wave responsible for the rain/storms yesterday will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning and weak ridging builds overhead. Will see an increase in westerly winds behind the departing wave. Still a bit of uncertainty on storm coverage today with the upper ridging and westerly flow that will be in place, which tends to suppress storm development. HRRR, NAM, and multiple renditions of the WRF all indicate very spotty coverage today as well. With this is mind, kept the PoPs highest over the western mountains really decreased chances east of the mountains. May have late development as the westerly wind relaxes late this evening, but will begin to lose instability by that point as we lose daytime heating. However, any storm that is able to develop will have the potential for damaging winds, especially with modeled DCAPE over 1000 J/kg by the mid- afternoon. Expecting any convection to quickly diminish after sunset and may have areas of fog develop again tonight. Low a bit warmer in the mid to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Increasing flash flood threat - Periods of numerous showers and thunderstorms Mid-level troughing deepens on Wednesday ahead of a frontal passage on Thursday. Both days will feature showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area. Due to the antecedent conditions and multiple consecutive days of convective showers and storms, the threat for flash flooding will increase through the week. High rainfall rates are possible within any storms that form due to the above normal PWATs. There is potential for thunderstorms to exhibit severe characteristics, especially during the peak heating periods of each afternoon. Greatest threats will be damaging winds or large hail. An embedded shortwave rotating through a broader trough will continue the pattern of thunderstorms and rainshowers on Friday as well. Temperatures will be around normal or just below thanks to cloud cover, the cooling effects of showers and storms, and frontal passage on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Temperatures cool off - Daily threat of thunderstorms continues Overall synoptic scale pattern during this time frame features broad troughing in the eastern United States and lower 5000 MB heights. No particular focus to aid in development of precipitation but region remains cooler than earlier in the week, but warm enough for a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. For now, enough of a break from the deep moisture to the forecast for Monday dry. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday... Poor flying tonight at many locations due to patchy dense fog. Fog coverage will continue to increase through sunrise as mid level clouds erode, giving way to mostly clear skies. Any fog will likely erode by 14z. Ceilings will be variable through at least midday Tuesday, but improve to VFR for much of the area by Tuesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Tuesday afternoon, with the best coverage over the mountains. Therefore, have introduced a period of thunder for BCB/BLF/LWB for a few hours this evening. Winds increase from the west today, a bit gusty across the mountains at times. Possibly gusting to 20kts. Fog possible again overnight, especially for any areas that may see rain today. Forecast confidence is average. Extended Aviation Outlook... Unsettled weather is expected for much of the week. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...AMS/VFJ AVIATION...BMG