####018006004#### FXUS62 KJAX 062316 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 616 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Periods of Beneficial Rainfall through Sunday. Isolated TStorms Possible South of I-10 Sunday - Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights - Small Craft Advisory possible Monday night into Tuesday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A stalled frontal boundary will stay to the south, laying across central Florida, through tonight. However, the welcomed wet weather will continue overnight as moist mild isentropic ascent increases overnight, upping rain chances to 70-90% late tonight. Strong forcing from the favorable isentropic flow across the stalled front and the favorable alignment of an upper level jet streak should lead to a widespread stratiform rain with heavy drizzle mixed in. With the stronger isentropic lift closer to the stalled front, the higher rain accumulations Sunday are expected across NE FL where 1-3" of beneficial rainfall will be possible. Not expecting this to bust the drought given the deficit but it's a trend in the right direction. With the wet weather, gloomy overcast skies will continue through tonight keeping temperatures in the mid and upper 40s across SE GA and in the low to mid 50s in NE FL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A slow moving warm front over central FL Sunday morning, will slowly lift into NE FL during the day. Lift along this frontal zone will yield a significant chance for showers, especially across NE FL. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be along, and just north of the warm front. Periods of moderate rainfall can be expected, with a few local bursts of heavier rain, mainly in thunderstorms. It will be a cooler than normal day, with a wide range in temperatures from north to south due to frontal position. Highs will range from the upper 50s around Alma, GA, to the lower to middle 70s for Ocala and south. The frontal zone will stretch west to east, roughly along the GA/FL line Monday morning. The front will then move to the southeast of the area Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The elevated rain chances will continue through the night Sunday night, then decrease through the day Monday from northwest to southeast. Due to the cloud cover and frontal location, lows will range near to a little above average Sunday night. Another below normal day is expected on Monday. The exception will be south of Gainesville, where the timing of the front will allow temperatures to moderate to near to above average levels. High pressure will build to the north Monday night, with a dry night expected. Cold advection will push readings below normal Tuesday night. Winds should drop off enough for a bit of frost over inland SE GA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure ridge located just north of the area Tuesday morning, will sink south across area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The high will build to the southeast Wednesday night through Thursday night. The weather will be dry Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday into Friday night. An upper wave will move along this boundary. Showers will be expected as this boundary goes through, with a few thunderstorms possible. Strong high pressure will follow this frontal passage for Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... A band of rain will move through the TAF sites through the next couple of hours and then a slight break before the next round of stratiform rain spreads across the sites for the rest of the period. Ceilings this evening will bounce between VFR, MVFR and IFR before a persistent LIFR/IFR cloud deck sets in through Sunday afternoon. Winds will trend from north to northeast at or below 10 knots. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will stall south of the forecast waters today and into tonight. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida waters late tonight with widespread rainfall and a isolated embedded thunderstorms early Sunday into Sunday night over the Florida waters. Low pressure will move offshore on Sunday night, resulting in strengthening northwest winds. High pressure will then build over the southeast states early next week, creating strengthening northerly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions from Monday through Tuesday evening. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Moderate Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY... A frontal zone will provide wet weather over the region through Monday morning. High pressure will build to the northwest Monday night, then build overhead Tuesday. The high will sink to the southeast Wednesday through Thursday. The cold front will move southeast across the region Friday into Friday night. Strong high pressure will build to the northwest Saturday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Thunderstorm potential over NE FL through Sunday night. Light Freeze with frost likely over SE GA Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 45 56 46 59 / 50 50 40 20 SSI 50 61 50 62 / 70 70 50 20 JAX 50 64 51 65 / 70 80 60 20 SGJ 55 66 56 67 / 70 90 80 20 GNV 54 67 55 69 / 70 90 80 20 OCF 57 72 57 70 / 50 90 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018009602#### FXUS63 KDLH 062316 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 516 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs this weekend will be in the single digits to low teens with overnight lows below zero. - Active weather next week with several clipper systems passing through the region. The Tuesday into Wednesday system currently looks to be the most impactful with the potential for a band of heavy snowfall along and south of US Hwy 2. - Another round of arctic air late next week and weekend will push highs back down into the single digits to low teens with overnight lows below zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Today - Sunday: A strong arctic high pressure centered over Alberta today and into the Red River Valley on Sunday should keep mainly dry conditions and colder air over the region under primarily clear skies for most. There are a few exceptions to this, however. First, is some cloud cover from the Brainerd Lakes east into inland northwest Wisconsin through this evening on the northern fringe of a cloud shield associated with a low pressure system passing well to our south. Second, are some light snow showers downwind (i.e. southeast) of bigger inland lakes in Minnesota, especially near the International Border today through tonight. Third, are South Shore lake-effect snow showers due to the colder air over a relatively warm (around 40F) Lake Superior water surface. The South Shore lake-effect should linger into daytime Sunday before coming to an end in Ashland and Iron Counties Sunday evening as winds turn westerly and drier air cuts off lake-effect processes. Expect less than an inch of snow from the inland lake-effect snow showers in northern Minnesota and generally another 1" to locally 3" of very fluffy snow in eastern Ashland and northern Iron Counties for today through Sunday. Temperatures will be well-below average today and Sunday, with highs both days in the single digits to teens and lows tonight and Sunday night for pretty much everywhere in the Northland. Some lows tonight in north-central and northeast Minnesota may even dip below -10F in areas where skies stay clear and winds remain very light to calm. This could set up overnight and early Sunday morning wind chills in the -10F to -25F range, lowest in the Arrowhead and Iron Range. ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK: Monday - Early Tuesday Clipper: On Monday, the surface high pressure and main lobe of the arctic airmass will be sliding southeast of the Northland, setting up southerly return flow into the Northland and moderating temperatures with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s. Very light snow is possible late Sunday night into Monday morning as a weak 500 mb shortwave interacts with weak lift due to warm advection in a saturated dendritic growth zone. Snow amounts with this snow look minimal, with the best potential for measurable snow in the Brainerd Lakes to inland northwest Wisconsin (20-40% chance). Then, there is good agreement amongst ensemble surface low tracks for the first in a series of Alberta Clippers to move through Northern Minnesota, albeit with a very slight southward shift relative to previous model runs. This would bring snow to much of the Northland starting Monday evening, peaking in coverage and intensity in the late evening and overnight, and then exiting the Northland to the east by mid to late Tuesday morning. Synoptic lift from divergence aloft and differential vorticity should aid in a small period of time in the late evening and early overnight hours when moderate to locally high snowfall rates would be supported. Areas generally along and north of US-2 in Minnesota and along the South Shore are the with the best potential for 2"+ of snow at 40- 70%, locally 80% along the North Shore. 4"+ probabilities have dropped off slightly, with 10-20% for the aforementioned areas and locally 20-30% along the North Shore. Tuesday - Early Wednesday Clipper: Quick on the heels of the first Clipper will be a second, stronger Alberta Clipper diving into Minnesota late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system should be much deeper, with ensemble member forecasts of a surface low with a central pressure ranging from 977- 990 mb. The NAEFS MSLP forecast shows these pressures being near or at the minimum of the climatology for this time of year. This system's moisture will also have Pacific Northwest origins from a potent atmospheric river. Modification of the moisture as this system tracks into the Upper Midwest would put forecast PWAT values near the 90th percentile for the Northland relative to climatology for early December at around 0.50". The main difference between the 12Z suite and 00Z suite of global ensemble guidance has been a better clustering in the timing of the low pressure tracks through Minnesota and Wisconsin from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. There is still some room for the track of the center of this low pressure system to wobble as far north as northern Minnesota or as far south as northern Iowa late Tuesday afternoon/evening, but most of the ensemble tracks are through central Minnesota or the southern half of Minnesota. The exact track will play an important factor in where the heaviest snow falls and snowfall amounts for the Northland as strong frontogenetic banding on the northern side of the surface low and mid/upper-level synoptic support for strong lift (e.g. differential vorticity and divergence aloft) should drive periods of heavy snowfall rates (0.5-1" per hour), particularly late Tuesday afternoon and evening given the current forecast timing. There should be a fairly sharp gradient on the northern side of this banded snow, so a shift of even tens of miles could drastically change which locations see the highest snowfall amounts. A more southerly low track across southern Minnesota/Wisconsin could mean much of northern Minnesota would only see lighter accumulations, while a low track across central Minnesota/Wisconsin would place more of the Northland in moderate to heavy snowfall potential with this system. Current probabilities for 2"+ of snow are 50-70% generally along and south of the Iron Range in Minnesota and for all of northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile, 4"+ probabilities are 30-55% along and South of US-2 in Minnesota and for northwest Wisconsin and up to Silver Bay along the North Shore given initial wind trajectories off of Lake Superior adding in some lake/terrain enhancement. Higher snowfall thresholds tail off slowly, with 6"+ probabilities of 20-35% for the same areas as the 4"+ probabilities. Late Next Week into Next Weekend: While this second Clipper system will pull out of the area by Wednesday PM, there should be some lingering snow showers through much of the day along the South Shore. Global ensemble guidance then points to the active weather pattern and clipper train continuing late this week into next weekend as more Alberta Clippers slide somewhere across the Midwest on Thursday, Friday, and possibly next weekend. Still plenty of uncertainty regarding the late next week systems with regards to timing, tracks, and intensities. With that said, the there are some early indications that the Thursday system may track far enough south for its associated precipitation to completely miss the Northland. One thing that is more certain for late next week into next weekend will be a return of another cold arctic airmass in the wake of the Tuesday/Wednesday Clipper. High temperatures will likely return to the single digits above zero to teens, with overnight lows below zero. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Pockets of MVFR ceilings with flurries persist along the WI State Higway 70 corridor this evening as clipper moves through northern IA and southern WI. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light northerly winds are forecast this TAF period. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Northwest winds pick up, with gusts to 15-20 kt this evening into midday Sunday. Waves could approach 2-4 ft in the Outer Apostle Islands. No Small Craft Advisories are expected at the moment, but may be needed if winds and/or waves increase any further. Winds weaken and back to southwesterly Sunday evening and night. Weather then becomes much more active for Monday into next week, with multiple clipper systems set to impact the region. The Tuesday into Wednesday system looks to be a prolific snow producer. Gusty southwest winds of 20-30 kt are forecast for Monday, and out of the northeast to north Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is also a 10-30% chance for gale- force winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for the Outer Apostle Islands and from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rothstein AVIATION...NLy MARINE...Rothstein ####018002278#### FXUS65 KFGZ 062318 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 418 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Expect dry conditions and warming daytime temperatures well into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Arizona will be entrenched in a dry northwest flow over the coming week. High pressure aloft, currently located well off the southern California coast, will gradually approach Arizona over the coming days becoming established over California by next Saturday or Sunday. This is a classic dry/mild late fall pattern which will result in warming daytime temperatures through Wednesday or Thursday before plateauing. High temperatures are expected to climb 10 to 15 degrees above average by Wednesday. Otherwise, daytime breezes will be light from a northwesterly direction with a few periods of high clouds as weak passing disturbances brush Arizona. Another feature of note, with dry conditions and mainly clear skies strong nighttime radiational cooling will result in local drainage breezes of 10 to 20 mph south of the Mogollon Rim. At this time there is no breakdown in this pattern in site. && .AVIATION...Sunday 07/00Z through Monday 08/00Z...VFR conditions forecast through the period. Variable winds generally 10 kts or less expected. OUTLOOK...Monday 08/00Z through Wednesday 10/00Z...VFR conditions expected. Look for light and variable winds throughout much of the period, but localized breezy NE winds overnight likely downwind of terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry conditions with temperatures warming 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Winds light and variable around 10 mph or less both days. Min RH's between 25-40% each day. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average Tuesday and 15-20 degrees above average Wednesday and Thursday. Winds light and variable around 10 mph or less each day. Min RH's ranging from 20-35% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018008329#### FXUS61 KRNK 062318 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 618 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold but dry weather conditions are expected to continue through Sunday as high pressure moves across the Mid-Atlantic. Another storm system will move across the region Sunday night through Monday, and could bring some light rain and snow to the region. The mountains will have the best chance to receive some accumulating snow from this system, with an inch or two possible west of the Blue Ridge Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 610 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Fog, some freezing fog, tonight could cause travel issues in the Piedmont. 2. Below normal temperatures and dry weather conditions are expected to continue through Sunday. Key Message 1: Still getting some dense fog at the Lynchburg airport this evening and with drier air above and wet ground with some snow, and light winds, fog seems a good bet tonight in the Piedmont. Several models point to fog being dense at times especially along and east of a Lynchburg to Martinsville to Danbury NC line. Will monitor trends for potential issuance of dense and/or freezing fog headlines. Increasing clouds overnight could limit fog somewhat. Key Message 2... Satellite imagery shows that lots of cloud cover has remained from Central/Southside Virginia into northwestern North Carolina through much of the day. Embedded within this region are pockets of low clouds and reduced visibilities. The latest high- resolution guidance continues to suggest that conditions should continue improving over this area through the rest of the afternoon, with at least partly cloudy skies possible before sunset. Tonight we'll see the center of surface high pressure, embedded in a nearly zonal flow aloft, traverse the Mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, a quick-moving perturbation in the upper flow is anticipated to move across the area as the high slides east. While increased cloud cover is expected with this feature, the lack of low- level moisture should keep conditions dry. Temperatures will be the major weather story this weekend. The diminished cloud cover and any lingering snow cover will allow temperatures to quickly fall after sunset today. Confidence is high that most places west of I-81 could see early morning lows in the 20-25 degree range, with middle 20s anticipated elsewhere. These values are close almost 10 degrees below what we normally see in early December. Temperatures Sunday afternoon should be warmer than what we're seeing today, but will likely be tempered a bit due to the anticipated increase in cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025 Key Messages: 1. Snow likely late Sunday night into Monday morning 2. Very cold Monday night 3. Quiet under high pressure Tuesday Key Message 1... A southern stream system will lift north late on Sunday night, initially taking a warm front across the area. This will also advect in some Gulf moisture. Precipitation will begin as rain, but as cold air from the north is swept across, the atmospheric profile will change rather quickly to support a mostly snow event going into Monday morning. As the time frame of this event has slowed down in recent guidance, there is more time for the cold air advection to occur, and thus the trend has been to increase snow amounts. It is unlikely that this will be a strong, noteworthy storm, as QPF is still quite low, and snow amounts are generally between 1-2" in the mountains, and less than an inch east of the Blue Ridge, where a rain snow mix is expected to linger a bit longer into Monday. Totals and impacts will be analyzed closely leading into this event, as there has been variability in model runs, so a further increase in snow totals is not out of the question. Key Message 2... In the wake of the front moving out of the area on Monday, a significant drop in temperatures is expected for Monday night. Lows in the teens will be commonplace, with the coldest occurring near the Alleghany Highlands. Key Message 3... A relatively transient region of high pressure will suppress meteorological activity on Tuesday. Temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s, along with mostly clear skies allowing some sunshine, will aid in thawing any remaining snow or ice coverage from the previous two wintry systems. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 205 PM EST Sat Dec 06 2025 Key Messages: 1. Quick moving system to potentially bring rain/snow mix to the mountains on Wed/Wed night. 2. A more robust rain/snow system possible Thursday and/or Friday. Key Message 1... Much of central to eastern CONUS will be under the regime of a longwave trough pattern with its parent low located near Hudson Bay. Within this broad flow pattern, a series of shortwave troughs are expected to pass over or north of the region. The first of these has better consistency in timing and location than the second. We are looking at a Wednesday evening crossing of the associated shortwave trough axis with cold air advection arriving shortly in its wake. Moisture associated with the system will advected into the area with the system, with rain/snow expected to be limited to primarily area along and west of the Blue Ridge, with best chances over southeast West Virginia. Precipitation is expected to spread into the area west to east during the day Wednesday, and linger across the mountains (thanks to upslope flow) through the night. A small amount of light precipitation may reach western sections of the VA/NC Piedmont. Key Message 2... There is more variability in timing and track of the second system. Additionally, some deterministic guidance offers a southern stream system becoming involved in the process, and thus and potential additional moisture sources and warm-nose low level thermal profiles. A look at the latest NCEP Ensemble 500mb geopotential heights offers a late Friday evening as the mean time frame for the passage of the next trough axis. However, there is plenty of solutions favoring as early as Thursday evening. Given the variability, our forecast will reflect only a rain versus snow forecast rather than other winter p-types. We will have increasing probabilities during the day on Thursday from west to east, with values maximizing Thursday night into early Friday. By Friday evening, we may be within the northwest flow portion of the system, helping to have the focus for any additional snow/rain primarily over the mountains. Coverage and amounts should trail off heading into Saturday. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 614 PM EST Saturday... Under clearing skies in the Piedmont, fog appears to become an issue and remains one at LYH. Leaning toward IFR to LIFR fog/cigs at LYH, possibly DAN tonight with mainly VFR west, except for some MVFR stratocu at BLF this evening. Any fog/freezing fog east of an LYH-MTV-MWK line tonight should clear up between 12-14z. Increasing mid and high clouds could also put a lid on fog but once it develops and a surface inversion sets up, it will take a while to get rid of it Sunday morning. Right now confidence is for keeping LYH/DAN on the low vsby side til late Sunday morning. .EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK... Sunday night-Monday: Restrictions possible as a storm system brings S- to the area. Precipitation could begin as R- (or a R-/S- mix) before changing to S-. Monday night: Improving flight categories. Tuesday: No restrictions anticipated. Wedesday-Thursday: Restrictions becoming possible as another storm system impacts the region. R- and S- will be possible. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DB/PM NEAR TERM...DB/WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DB/WP