####018006459#### FXUS63 KOAX 040501 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1101 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures fall this evening into the overnight and winds diminish. Most see frigid lows ranging from 0 to -10F by Thursday morning. Wind chills of -10 to -20F are expected north of Interstate 80 Thursday morning as wind speeds increase again. - Dry and cold conditions expected for Thursday. Highs warm to the low to mid 30s for Friday. - Cold temperatures return Saturday and Sunday. A 20-40% chance of snow exists on Saturday. Highs warm to the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ Sfc cold front has now pushed well southeast of the forecast area this afternoon. Strong H8 cold air advection has resulted in temperatures falling throughout the day with many areas already having reached their highs. Strong subsidence from the trailing sfc high currently in the Dakotas has kept pesky stratus across far western and northwest areas too, while sunshine is observed across the rest of the area. Winds have been rather breezy with most seeing north northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Looking aloft, RAP 19z objective analysis at H5 shows a longwave trof across Ontario extending southeast into northern Minnesota, leaving much of the Northern Plains in northwesterly flow. Despite most locations seeing sun this afternoon, temperatures will continue to fall. Winds weaken late this afternoon into the evening as the sfc high moves over the forecast area. The pesky stratus should erode too resulting in clearing skies. The light winds and clear skies will result in pretty good radiational cooling, so have lowered minimum temperatures from NBM guidance a degree or two for tonight. Most areas will see frigid lows in the 0 to -10F range, and records may potentially be broken at Lincoln (-3F record low in 1902). Winds speeds will pick up by Thursday morning resulting in wind chill values of -10 to -20F primarily north of Interstate 80. Those who plan to venture outside tomorrow morning should plan to bundle up. Expect a mix of clouds and sun Thursday with dry conditions. The cold air will linger, especially across far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa where highs in the mid teens to low 20s are forecast. Slightly warmer highs are expected across far northwest portions of our service area (low 30s) as H8 warm air advection returns given the baroclinic zone lifts east northeast. Winds will also be breezy from the southwest as the sfc pressure gradient tightens again. Lows Thursday night will still be chilly, with most areas seeing low teens to low 20s. .LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ H5 northwest flow continues on Friday as a weak shortwave trof rounding the base of more potent longwave over northern Manitoba into western Ontario ejects southeast. Current model guidance shows the best Q-vector convergence and implied forcing for ascent primarily north and east of the area. Moisture appears limited too, so have kept latest NBM solution which keeps the area dry. With the aforementioned H8 baroclinic zone moving northeast on Thursday, Friday should be warmer with most seeing highs in the low to mid 30s and maybe pushing 40F across our far western fringes. The parent H5 longwave trof should help induce cyclogenesis across northern Ontario, and the sfc cold front from said feature should extend well southeast into the Northern Plains Friday. The front should be at our doorstep by Friday night, crossing the area early Saturday. With more H8 cold air advection funneling in, expect temperatures to dip on Saturday with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s north of Interstate 80, and mid 30s near the Nebraska/Kansas border. A shortwave will eject from the Wyoming/Montana area toward the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado on Saturday morning. Ensemble and deterministic guidance keys in on a developing sfc low with the feature, but quite a bit of spread exists with where the sfc low will track. Notably, the EPS ensemble shows the most spread with the sfc low track, potentially taking the low into eastern Nebraska, while the majority of GEFS and CMC ensembles keep the sfc low well west of the area. Regardless of the low track, H7-H5 Q-vector convergence and implied lift should overspread a good chunk of the forecast area on Saturday. The mid level wave and sfc feature should have some moisture to work with resulting in a 20 to 40% chance for snow across the forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance shows varying locations in where the snow band will develop at this time as expected, likely within the deformation zone of said low. Regarding snowfall amounts, latest LREF suite suggests most areas seeing less than a half inch at best, primarily across northeast Nebraska. Details regarding this disturbance track and snowfall amounts are likely to change in the coming days, so please stay tuned to the forecast for updates. Chilly temperatures return for Sunday as we'll be behind the front, with most seeing highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night will be frigid in the single digits to low teens. Temperatures are expected to warm again to the upper 30s to mid 40s by Monday and Tuesday as 1000-500mb thicknesses increase and overspread much of the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Wind speeds continue to weaken as surface high pressure settles into the region. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but a thin band of MVFR ceilings is passing over LNK currently. This should quickly move out of the TAF site. Overnight, winds become light and variable with clearing skies. As surface high pressure moves east of the area during the morning, southerly winds return. Wind speeds gradually increase by afternoon with a few gusts possible. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Chehak ####018006024#### FXUS64 KBRO 040501 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1101 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1035 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 * A cool fropa will result in scattered showers and maybe a thundershower during the day on Thursday along with falling temperatures; best chances near the coast and over the Gulf Waters. * Lingering post-frontal, stratiform showers are expected to persist through Friday. * Fluctuating (roller-coaster) temperature regime expected through next week. * Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 5 PM CST Thursday to Noon CST Friday in response to the cool fropa. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The forecast period will consist of unsettled weather conditions initially (Thursday through Friday) followed by rain-free weather through the remainder of the period. Cloud coverage will range between mostly cloudy to partly cloudy with mostly cloudy skies early in the period and partly cloudy skies developing next week. A fluctuating temperature pattern will also take place, though temperature anomalies will overall run near normal levels for the balance of the forecast period. Latest satellite and MSAS sfc observations depicted the eastern half of Texas socked under a scattered to overcast deck of stratus to strato-cumulus clouds with some areas of fog with a nearby frontal boundary and weak shortwave trough over Deep South Texas. Here across Deep South Texas, particularly over the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, there is a lull in cloud coverage. However, satellite trends are suggesting that clouds will begin to increase over these areas over the next 3-6 hours. Dewpoint depressions are low as well ranging between 2-4 at the local terminals, so may have to watch for the potential for mist/fog later. Expect a quiet night ahead with at least periods of clouds and maybe some mist as the frontal boundary remains to our north. During the late morning to early afternoon hours, the aforementioned frontal boundary to our north will pass to our south as a cool front. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning and especially during the afternoon hours on Thursday in response to this frontal boundary. High temperatures (lower 80s along the Rio Grande Valley; 70s elsewhere) will likely be reached during the early afternoon hours as temperatures will fall throughout the remainder of the day. As cold air advection (CAA) on northerly winds continues to build into the region, overnight low temperatures will fall to below normal levels with values in the 50s along the RGV and coastal area, and 40s over the Northern Ranchlands. Lingering post-frontal stratiform type rain showers will take place on Friday. High temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 60s across the region on Friday due to rain chances and abundant cloud cover. Overnight low temperatures Friday night will be near seasonable levels with values in the 50s areawide with any lingering rain showers ending. Rainf-free or tranquil weather conditions returns Saturday and will persist through the remainder of the forecast period or through next Thursday. Cloud coverage is expected to improve in time as well transitioning from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. A warming trend takes place Saturday and Sunday before cooling down again on Monday and finally warming up again Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Through 06z Friday....Latest satellite and sfc observations depicted a SCT-OVC deck of MVFR-IFR stratus to strato-cumulus clouds over the terminals with ceilings ranging between 900-2,500 feet AGL with some mist around. Narrow dewpoint depressions could result in some mist at times, particularly at KBRO and KHRL tonight. Have TEMPO headlines for KBRO and KHRL to reflect the potential for some mist tonight. MVFR-LIFR ceilings are expected to persist through the 06z TAF period amid a nearby frontal boundary and weak shortwave trough. Some showers and maybe a thundershower is possible on Thursday amid the nearby cool frontal boundary. Have Prob30 groups to account for the potential for showers or thunderstorms on Thursday. Light and variable winds will persist through tonight. Following the cool fropa, winds on Thursday will shift out of the north- northwest with speeds between 10-15 kts and gusts as high as 15-20 kts or so. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night in response to a cool fropa. Marine conditions improve on Friday with low to moderate winds and seas persisting into Sunday. Sunday night into Monday, an enhanced pressure gradient will result in the potential for adverse marine conditions developing. Marine conditions look to improve once again Monday night through the remainder of the forecast period or through Thursday with low to moderate winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 68 78 53 / 10 10 40 40 HARLINGEN 75 63 75 49 / 10 10 40 30 MCALLEN 75 66 75 52 / 0 10 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 61 72 50 / 0 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 71 75 59 / 10 10 60 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 66 76 51 / 10 10 50 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma ####018004684#### FXUS64 KMEG 040502 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1102 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest chances across north Mississippi. There is a low chance (20%) of light freezing rain along the I-40 corridor Thursday afternoon. - A chance (less than 40%) of a light wintry mix is expected Thursday night into early Friday morning north of I-40, mainly impacting bridges and elevated surfaces. - Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The first of two features in the near term will start making its way into the region from the ArkLATex during the overnight period. This initial push is most likely going to be just rain, considering it will stay confined to north Mississippi where temperatures will be sitting a few degrees above freezing aided by thick cloud cover. The next push from a more dynamic shortwave system will start as early as noon on Thursday. This second system raises a few more questions about precipitation type and impacts. Digging into the CAMs, point soundings suggest a very shallow warm nose between 700-850 mb during the onset of precip Thursday afternoon. This will make or break precipitation types, especially because the surface temperatures will be hovering at or just above freezing along the I-40 corridor for most of the afternoon. By the time sunset rolls around, the changeover line from a rain/snow mix to just rain will most likely dip a little farther south. Since ground temperatures have been relatively warm, snow is not likely to accumulate tomorrow even in the northernmost counties. The biggest impact will be slick roads from a light dusting of snow, especially on bridges. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may also become slick, so use extra caution both walking and driving. It's worth noting that the forecast is trending away from freezing rain altogether. The latest probabilities for even a light glaze of ice (0.01") are only around 20% for the chunk of the CWA just north of I-40. This change is most likely due to the column's warm layer not being stout enough to fully melt the ice crystals on the way down. As such, no Winter Weather Advisory was issued with this forecast package. Regardless, roads may still suddenly become slick with rain while temperatures are near freezing. Precip with this shortwave will come to a close no later than sunrise Friday morning. Moving into the weekend, a very weak frontal boundary will support a slight chance (15-20%) of showers on Sunday. Temperatures will be back in the 40s and 50s by this point so winter weather is not a concern over the weekend. Monday and Tuesday finally dry out with high pressure at the surface after the weak cold front finally passes. We end up back in a cool, active, northwesterly flow regime by midweek with another shot at rain starting Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 A messy TAF period ahead with likely fluctuations in flight categories. MVFR cloud deck remains to the west of the airspace and will slowly move in over the next few hours. By 12Z, all terminals will likely have at least some periods of MVFR to LIFR cigs. Scattered SHRA will move across north MS this morning, with the rest of the area remaining dry through around 20Z. Another round of precipitation will move through the airspace, with potential impacts to all sites after 20Z through around 05/03Z east. The southern extent of the precipitation will be rain-only, but some wintry conditions cannot be ruled out at JBR/MKL. Confidence is too low to include any mention of wintry precip for MEM at this time. CAMs are continuing to hint at lingering LIFR conditions near the end of the current TAF period, which will be worth watching for future forecasts. Winds will remain northerly through the TAF period, picking up to between 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...CMA ####018007064#### FXUS63 KAPX 040503 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1203 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shot of partially modified Arctic air visiting the Northwoods into Thursday, resulting in well below normal temperatures and more lake effect snows. - More of the same heading through the extended, with periodic shots of reinforcing cold air and more lake enhanced snow chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Pretty respectable cold front now exiting off into northern Lake Huron, with a shot of partially modified Arctic air sweeping into the region behind it. Additional lake snows and falling temperatures the result, with even colder conditions lurking just upstream. Still relatively "mild" out there, with current readings in the 20s to lower 30s...with those warmest readings on the south side of the sunrise side. Cold air advection will continue across the northern Lakes tonight through Thursday morning, with the coldest temperature anomalies slowly rotating off to the east heading into later Thursday and Thursday night. Primary Forecast Concerns: Lake snow evolution and attendant amounts/headline considerations, along with temperature trends. Details: Over-water thermal gradient only increases further with time tonight into Thursday morning as H8 temperatures break -20C (pretty impressive for early December). Transition to a more "pure" lake effect environment will also occur as any real synoptic scale support is lost. Still, some pretty impressive lake snow parameters will continue to focus across eastern Lake Superior, helped along by maturing lake aggregate troughing running up Whitefish Bay into the central basin. Good to excellent convective depths (up to 10kft) and enhanced low level convergence via that lake aggregate troughing will definitely help compensate for loss of synoptic contribution, with well organized lake bands expected to impact the famed snowbelts of Chippewa County tonight into Thursday morning. With that said, still have some trepidation with regards to exact snow totals as aggressive cooling perhaps forces the fluff-producing dendritic growth layer closer to the surface (perhaps below cloud base levels altogether). However, have also experienced aggressive lake modification within better banding structures eventually forcing the favored DGZ back within the snowflake production layer. We shall see. Either way, looking at significant impacts, with some of the heavier snow bands looking to perhaps direct themselves right into the SOO and along the entirety of the M-28 corridor. Easily expect several inches of snow in these areas by later Thursday morning, with double digit totals on the table...especially if that DGZ remains centered in the convective cloud depth layer. Gusty northwest winds will definitely result in areas of blowing snow, especially in those more open areas along M-28. This of course will only exacerbate the already hazardous travel conditions. A bit of a different story off northern Lake Michigan with both lower inversion heights and lack of any well organized low level convergence signature. These should theoretically result in less organized multi-band structures as well as less intense snowfall rates. Still, simple persistence of passing snow showers will likely bring a few inches of new snow to parts of northwest lower by later Thursday morning where diffused bands become a bit more stationary. Again, gusty northwest winds will result in some blowing and drifting snow...definitely resulting in some travel impacts across the snowbelt regions of northwest lower Michigan. Snow shower intensity and organization expected to decrease of both lakes Thursday afternoon as convective depths shrink and lake aggregate troughing is lost. Other focus is on those cold temperatures, with lows tonight dropping into the single digits away from those lake modified areas...and highs Thursday likely only reaching the upper teens across inland regions. Gusty northwest winds will of course make it feel several degrees colder, with wind chill readings likely dropping into the single digits below zero by later tonight into early Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Really, no significant changes as long-wave troughing and active northern stream flow maintain control of northern Michigan weather right through the middle of next week. Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through the period. Details: As mentioned above, simply a forecast of persistence into next week. Next wave looks to arrive later Thursday night into Friday, with additional shortwave energy arriving Friday night. Each one of these waves will bring renewed chances of lake augmented snows...with the threat for any real accumulations again centered in our traditional lake effect areas. Not seeing any real signal for heavy snow amounts...although will need to watch Friday night as sustained west- southwest flow and ample synoptic moisture contribution may target heavier snow into the Lake Michigan collar counties. Simple forecast persistence thereafter, with additional fast moving and relatively moisture starved waves kicking off additional snow showers at times right into next week...with the greatest emphasis in our snowbelt regions. Temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees each day but remain at least a few degrees below normal right though the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Lake effect snow showers have built in behind an earlier FROPA. NW winds of 8 to 13kts with G15 to 20kts (at times 26kts) will be seen through 12Z. Fragmented bands of SHSN are expected to be transient over northern lower, leading to brief impacts to terminals tonight. KCIU has a better chance of seeing longer lived MVFR/IFR conditions due to times of SHSN. Conditions improve for all terminals after 16Z as winds become light and W. Winds turn S/SW ahead of next system with G15 to 20kts after 03Z. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ086-087. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Gale Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...ELD ####018004713#### FXUS63 KLOT 040504 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief bout of very cold temperatures through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Through Friday Night: Cold front is moving into our northwestern CWA early this afternoon with areas of light snow and flurries ahead of the front along with some transient bands of beefier snow with larger snowflakes at times. This snow should end as cold front moves through, with some guidance continuing to suggest there'll be a loss of ice nuclei and potential for some DZ/FZDZ southern CWA early this evening. In the wake of the front, low level cold air advection will send temps tumbling tonight. As the column cools, cloud temps within the lingering post frontal stratocumulus will drop as well, dipping solidly into the range of ice being present. Pretty common in these situations to get some very light snow or flurries to leak out of these cold air stratocumulus clouds. Have introduced some flurries into the grids tonight behind the front. Low temperatures tonight may not occur until a couple of hours past sunrise Thursday as robust cold air advection likely continues a slow temp fall beyond sunrise. Gusty northwest winds will push wind chills below zero late tonight and Thursday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine, Thursday will be very cold with highs struggling to reach 10 above across interior northern IL with highs into the teens in the urban heat island area of Chicago metro and downwind of Lake Michigan across extreme northwest Indiana. Diminishing winds Thursday afternoon will allow wind chills to rebound to above zero during the Day Thursday. By early Thursday evening, guidance is in good agreement in placing a 1028-1029mb high smack dab over northern Illinois. Given the deep snowpack in place and clear skies, it is likely that temps will quickly tank after the sun sets, particularly at the typically colder locations. Wouldn't be surprising to see some of the typically cold spots drop to 5 to 10 below Thursday evening, but with nearly calm winds, wind chills shouldn't be a factor. High pressure is progged to move east of the area through the night Thursday, allowing southerly winds to develop and gradually increase. The strengthening southerly flow will send temps rising overnight, though the rise in temps will be be partially offset by the increasing winds keeping wind chills quite chilly. - Izzi Saturday through Wednesday: There continues to be high uncertainty for precip chances in the extended with some mention of blended chance pops from Saturday night through the middle of next week. The one trend that appears to be emerging is there could be a clipper parade next week, with the potential that one or more of these pass north of the local area, which would potentially allow temps to moderate some. If there is precip falling with what will likely be cold ground, some mixed precip would be possible, but way too much uncertainty from this distance. cms && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 In the wake of an arctic cold front that crossed the area early last evening, NW winds gusting to around 20 knots will gradually diminish through the morning. Winds will then back SW under 10 knots mid afternoon as a surface high pressure shifts across northern Illinois. SW winds are then expected to persist through tonight. VFR conditions are favored through the period, though clear skies (at least initially) Thursday night and weak low-level warm air/moisture advection may result in developing BR/MIFG. Kluber && .CLIMATE... Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Updated at 250 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Here are the current record low temperatures for Thursday into Friday this week: Chicago Cold High Low Thursday 12/4 13 (1991) 0 (1893) Friday 12/5 4 (2005) Rockford Cold High Low Thursday 12/4 7 (1991) -4 (1991) Friday 12/5 -5 (2005) - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Thursday for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018006959#### FXUS63 KMPX 040503 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1103 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread sub-zero temperatures tonight. Wind chills as cold as -20 to -25 across western MN. - A clipper will bring the next chance of light snow Friday morning. Minor accumulations possible. - Another system will slide through the region Saturday and looks to bring a better chance of accumulating snow (greatest potential across southern MN). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 On a normal day, one may think that the departure of morning flurries and stratus would signal warming temperatures -- however, that is not the case today! In fact, today's high temperatures were observed after midnight and have gradually dropped following the passage of a cold front. This trend will continue through tonight as an expansive ~1030s mb Arctic high builds in from the northwest. The coldest night of the season-to-date will send dinnertime surface temperatures in the single digits to well below zero prior to daybreak Thursday. Our latest forecast features morning lows between -5 to -7 in the TC metro and -10 to -12 for much of the rest of the forecast area. Wind chills will dip to between -15 to -25, though fortunately the presence of the surface high will promote light winds and limit colder apparent temperatures tonight. The forecast keeps STC/MSP/EAU above the current 12/4 minT record values, but with clear skies and the presence of a snowpack it will be worth watching temperature observations closely! The center of the surface high is progged to move southeast over Iowa tomorrow. At the same time, a clipper within the broad northwesterly upper-level flow will dig southeast towards northern MN. Breezy southerly return flow to the northwest of the surface high and mid-level thermal ridging within the clipper's "warm sector" will work in tandem to bring a steady warming trend that begins after daybreak tomorrow and continues all the way through Friday. In other words, Thursday afternoon's temperatures in the low teens will be cooler than Friday morning's temperatures in the low 20s, which are forecast to continue warming into the upper 20s through midday Friday. The initial warm advective precip shield ahead of the clipper will likely setup across northeastern MN, largely missing our forecast area. However, we'll look to the trailing cold front to set the stage for a higher PoP/low QPF winter precip scenario Friday morning and afternoon. This is the type of setup that is poorly handled by the guidance, so it's not a surprise to see a lack of QPF from the NBM. We collaborated with neighboring offices to introduce a few hundredths of liquid into the grids by way of WPC's blend, which supports a coating to a half inch of snow accumulation. In other words, we may see just enough snow Friday to add a few more slick spots on the roads (similar to what we saw today). For now our ~40 PoPs are satisfactory, but would look for those to increase significantly should precip trends continue. The active northwesterly flow pattern will send another shortwave along a remnant baroclinic zone (progged to setup from eastern MT to western IA) Saturday morning. This track is quite a bit farther south than the Friday clipper and would support a swath of snow over the Dakotas/the southern half of MN/northern IA. Despite the track of the wave taking on the clipper appearance, this system is a bit different in that it will likely have better moisture (Pacific influence/PacLow archetype). Still some questions in how far north/south the heaviest QPF axis will be and there are generally two "camps" in the guidance -- one that produces snow across south central MN/northern IA (EPS) and one that illustrates the best snow chances farther south (GEFS/GEPS). We have some time to work out the details, but it is worth noting that various deterministic and machine learning solutions support something closer to the EPS mean than the GEFS/GEPS blend. Should the northerly camp come to fruition, the setup would support the potential for at least a few inches (or more) of accumulating snow Saturday, with the highest amounts across southern MN and lower amounts as you head north towards I-94. Another blast of sub-zero Canadian air will flow into the Upper Midwest following Saturday's shortwave. Latest NBM appears to have a much better handle on the depth of the cold air, with sub-zero lows now reflected both Sunday and Monday morning. By this point you're probably tired of hearing "Another system will develop within the northwest flow..." however that is indeed the case come early next week (and likely beyond!). Guidance advertises another shortwave digging into the northern Plains Tuesday, with an associated surface low forecast to track from northwest to southeast over Lake Superior. This track places the majority of the NWS MPX forecast area on the warm side of the storm system, which is evidenced by the expansion of a thermal ridge over the region Tuesday. This evolution will bring a brief reprieve from the coldest air, as warm advection aims to support temperatures climbing back into the upper 20s/lower 30s Tuesday & Wednesday. However, with temperatures near the freezing mark (and 850mb T's likely climbing above freezing), we could be talking about p-type issues once the low draws near and precipitation chances increase. Given that this storm is towards the end of the forecast period, did not want to advertise a freezing rain scenario in the grids just yet as the forecast will likely undergo some shifting over the weekend. However, if the current consensus were to verify we would likely have more of a messy p-type forecast on our hands heading into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1101 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 SKC continues through first half of the period until FEW/SCT250 by early afternoon. Winds turn light and variable overnights as a high pressure moves overhead. Winds ramp up and turn to the south by daybreak later this morning. Speeds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25kts possible across W MN. Stratus will begin to build in the final few hours of the period. I've added MVFR cigs to a few sites and low VFR to others. KMSP...no additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind W 5-10kts. SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts. SUN...MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus AVIATION...BPH