####018004431#### FXUS64 KLCH 062325 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 525 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog will impact Lake and Bays tonight with areas of dense fog possible farther inland. - High pressure moving east of the region brings moisture and warmth back to the region into Sunday before a sharp cold front moves through into Monday. - Dry and cool conditions expected through the midweek as a stronger high pressure area and cool/dry airmass moves into the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Light to moderate rain is slowly moving eastward as we are feeling the tail-end effects of the low pressure in the Gulf. Upper-level troughing continues to influence our region with weak diffluence aloft supporting the occasional widespread rain. As the surface low shifts east, high pressure will build in its place, leading to warm air advection as moist Gulf air moves inland. We are looking at the possibility of dense fog across much of the area with visibility below 1 mile. An inland dense fog advisory may be needed, but there is too much model uncertainty to pull the trigger right now. Sunday night and going into Monday, we will see the next cold front push through the region with brisk north winds and plummeting temperatures by 20 degrees, with lows dropping near freezing along I-10 and below freezing farther north. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Calm conditions will continue through most of the work week as a lack of forcing and dry air aloft will bring clear skies and dry weather. Temperatures will slowly rise as clear skies and warm air advection will bump our highs into the low 70s and our lows into the upper 40s to low 50s. The next cold front will move through near the end of the week, but with PWATs in the 25th percentile, the chance of rain will be near zero through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 With high pressure at the surface moving off to the east southerly flow in the low levels returning bringing some warm air and moisture advection into the region. This is allowing for low clouds to develop with MVFR/IFR ceilings at all terminals except for KAEX, which remains at VFR for the moment. During the night, low clouds will continue to move inland with stratus build down bringing about some patchy fog also. All terminals are expected in the IFR/LIFR mode from roughly 07/06-15z. A cold front will move across the area during Sunday afternoon. A few showers will be possible ahead of the front with mainly MVFR ceilings, then showers ending after the front, however MVFR ceilings look to persist. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The low water advisory continues until 6 PM this evening as low water levels during low tide have been -1.5 ft below MLLW. After this tide cycle, onshore winds and less impactful tides will keep water levels above advisory levels. Tonight, conditions will be favorable for dense fog with visibilities on inland lakes and bays dropping below 1 mile from 06Z to 12Z. A Small Craft Advisory will likely Sunday night and into Monday as another cold front will move across the Gulf with offshore winds between 15 and 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 High pressure will bring warm, moist air north tonight and Sunday. On Monday, 20 ft winds will be from the north around 10 to 15 mph with minimum RH values in the 50s. But with the recent widespread rain, fire weather concerns are minimal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 44 67 39 54 / 0 30 10 0 LCH 51 73 45 59 / 10 30 10 0 LFT 49 72 46 57 / 10 50 30 0 BPT 53 74 44 59 / 0 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432. Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-436. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07 ####018009231#### FXUS61 KPHI 062325 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 625 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will settle into the area tonight, then move offshore and dissipate on Sunday. A cold front will cross the region and move offshore Sunday night, ushering in arctic high pressure with much colder and drier conditions through Tuesday. Another low pressure and frontal system will impact the region Wednesday, followed by yet another low pressure system late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A subtle mid-level impulse traversing the region will move offshore by this evening. The region will remain under enhanced westerly flow aloft through Sunday with a shortwave axis associated with an upper- low over the Hudson Bay to the northwest of the region and a large scale trough over the eastern half of the Continental US. At the surface, broad high pressure will build in from the west, with a strong cold front beginning to approach western portions of the area by the evening hours. Low clouds and patchy drizzle have been persistent into this afternoon, but the drizzle is finally departing. Clouds should follow, with clearing from northwest to southeast this evening. A good portion of the overnight hours are expected to be mostly clear, before high level clouds begin to filter in again towards sunrise. Winds will be light tonight, favoring a westerly or northwesterly direction. Lows look to be in the low to mid 20s outside of the coastal plain and urban corridor, where they should bottom out in the upper 20s to near 30. Worth noting is that while not currently anticipated, some patchy fog is not entirely out of the question, especially in areas that saw prolonged light precipitation into this afternoon. If this were to occur, freezing on elevated surfaces would be a concern. Widespread high clouds are likely to continue overspreading the region on Sunday. Winds will become southwesterly but remain relatively light around 5-10 mph. High temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 30s northwest of the fall line, and the low to mid 40s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main story for the short term period Sunday night through Tuesday will be the well below normal temperatures (on the order of 15-20 degrees below normal) following a cold frontal passage Sunday night. A split flow pattern will remain in place through early next week, with the main feature of interest being a trough axis passing to our south Monday night. A dry cold front will push through the region Sunday night as low pressure slides off to our northeast, giving way to rather cold and dry arctic high pressure building in from the Great Lakes through Tuesday morning. The high will then shift offshore during the day Tuesday, with some SSW return flow developing later in the day. The trend in a less amplified trough continues, and thus appears the frontal passage should be mostly dry, aside from perhaps some flurries north of I-78. The surface high and subsidence locally looks strong enough to keep the system developing off the Carolina coast suppressed to our southeast. With an overnight frontal passage Sunday night, low temperatures into Monday morning won't be exceptionally cold, and should be mainly from the low to mid 20s (10s for the higher elevations north of I-78). However, wind chills by dawn Monday will be quite cold in the low to mid 10s across the board (as low as 0 degrees across the Pocono Plateau) as northerly winds increase to near 10-15 mph. High temperatures for Monday will be the coldest of this arctic blast, ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s (low 30s for the I-95 corridor). With the continuing northerly winds near 10-15 mph (gusting up to 25 mph), daytime wind chills will only max out in the mid 10s to mid 20s. The coldest night of the week and likely so far this season for most areas will be Monday night into Tuesday morning. As the high pressure builds in over the area maximizing subsidence, skies should clear out enough to give us decent radiational cooling conditions. Forecast low temperatures range from the single digits near/north of I-78 to the low to mid 10s in most other areas, and closer to 20 degrees for the immediate coastal areas. Fortunately, winds will be light to calm, so the wind chill will not be much of a factor. As the high pressure shifts offshore on Tuesday, we will get into some return flow and airmass modification into the afternoon hours. High temperatures will rebound a few degrees, mainly in the low to mid 30s and closer to 40 degrees near the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Guidance diverges significantly on solutions to the forecast for the middle to especially end of the week. Overall, temperatures look to remain below normal through the end of the week as a couple low pressure systems impact the region, followed by potential for an arctic outbreak and sustained well below normal temperatures next weekend. It appears we'll have a "warm up" of temperatures closer to normal, but still a few degrees below normal for Wednesday ahead of another frontal system. Forecast highs are in the low to mid 40s and near 50 degrees toward the coast. This system is more likely to bring precipitation to portions of the region, especially near/north of I- 78. Some snow is possible for the higher elevations with rain more likely elsewhere. The precipitation from this system will be insignificant, with primarily some light rainfall and light (a dusting) of snow anticipated at the moment. Following frontal passage Wednesday night or early Thursday, temperatures should fall a few degrees again. The next system will probably impact the region Thursday night or Friday, so we've maintained the chance PoPs for this time frame. Any details with this late week system remain very unclear, as guidance varies widely in the timing, track, and strength of it. As with the Wednesday system, it currently appears to be a relatively quick moving and insignificant system, but there's still time for that to change. While technically outside the current forecast period, it should be noted that an arctic outbreak with well below normal temperatures looks to be on the horizon beginning next weekend. A few consecutive days of temperatures on the order of 10-20 degrees below normal are possible. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. West-northwest wind 5 kt or less. There is a low chance (less than 20%) for the development of patchy fog. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Southwesterly wind around 5 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Gusty NNW winds developing for Monday following FROPA. Monday night through Tuesday night...VFR. No significant weather. Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible (30-50% chance) in low clouds and rain. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated through Sunday. West- northwest winds tonight will be 10-15 kt, and become west- southwesterly on Sunday around 10 kt. Seas will be 2-4 feet. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday night...Advisory conditions expected.northerly winds increasing to near 20-30 kts following Sunday overnight FROPA. Some occasional gale force gusts near 35 kts possible. Seas building to 4-6 feet. Tuesday...No marine hazards expected. Wednesday through Thursday...Advisory conditions likely. Winds increasing to near 20-30 kts and seas building 5-8 feet. A chance of rain. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As a result of the Full Moon on December 4th, some spotty minor tidal flooding will be possible during the daytime high tides through this Sunday. This is primarily for the NJ and DE coasts and lower Delaware Bay. No tidal flooding is expected elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Very cold Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. At this point, we aren't forecasting to break any record lows. Below are the record lows for December 9. SITE RECORD/YEAR Allentown (ABE) 7/2002 AC Airport (ACY) 6/1968 AC Marina (55N) 5/1876 Philadelphia (PHL) 6/1876 Wilmington (ILG) 13/1960 Reading (RDG) 0/1989 Trenton (TTN) 12/2002 Mount Pocono (MPO) -1/1902 Georgetown (GED) 10/1976 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Staarmann NEAR TERM...Cooper SHORT TERM...Staarmann LONG TERM...Staarmann AVIATION...Cooper/Guzzo/Staarmann MARINE...Cooper/Staarmann TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI CLIMATE...WFO PHI ####018007447#### FXUS61 KPBZ 062326 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 626 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow with patchy freezing drizzle possible this afternoon in the ridges and along Interstate 80. Light snow accumulation expected on Sunday again primarily north and east of Pittsburgh. Continued rounds of rain and snow chances will prevail into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Light snow showers for I-80 and the ridges, flurries elsewhere - Freezing drizzle possible for I-80 and the ridges this afternoon --------------------------------------------------------------- Surface high pressure sliding by well off to our south will extend ridging locally into the southern portion of our area. To the north, weak low pressure will drag a surface trough across Lake Erie while a weak mid-level shortwave crosses the Ohio Valley. For most, the weak forcing combined with limited moisture may squeeze out some flurries through the day, but no accumulation is expected, and the day should be mostly dry and cloudy. The exception will be the I-80 corridor and the PA ridges. For I-80, closer proximity to the trough and with a bit more depth to the moisture will allow for light snow showers through the afternoon. Snow growth won't be very efficient with a mostly dry DGZ and shallowing moisture with time, so accumulation will be quite limited. HREF probability for measurable snow is as high as 30% but near zero for >0.5". With said shallowing moisture and lingering weak lift, we'll transition to an environment supportive of supercooled liquid water between 0C to -10C below where ice is present as nuclei for supercooled drops. This may allow for a period of a freezing drizzle threat this afternoon most likely after 2pm or so when soundings begin to cut off the mid-level moisture. For the ridges, weak upslope flow out of the WSW, and gradually backing further, should provide enough lift to also produce some light snow showers there today. Seeing similar trends for accumulation, though HREF prob for measurable is higher at up to 70% and >0.5" at ~30%. Also similarly, as the depth of the moisture cuts off, we'll cut below the favorable snow growth zone and raise the threat for patchy freezing drizzle. Have gone ahead with a mention of freezing drizzle/snow in the forecast but no headlines at this time. Will continue to monitor through the afternoon for necessity of SPS or short-fused advisory. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another disturbance brings minor snowfall accumulations to areas north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges; a rain/snow mix with little accumulations expected elsewhere - Dry weather and below seasonal temperatures prevail Sunday night through Monday night under building high pressure ---------------------------------------------------------------- Another passing shortwave brings higher chances for a wintry mix to the entire area on Sunday. Precipitation is expected to start as snow (possibly a rain/snow mix in the Mon Valley) Sunday morning before transitioning to a rain/snow mix across the lowlands south of I-80 by late morning and afternoon. Overall accumulations with the Sunday system are still anticipated to be light, with measurable snowfall appearing most likely north of I-80 and in the ridges. NBM snowfall probabilities are rather pessimistic, suggesting a 40-60 percent chance for a tenth of an inch north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges, but a 20 percent chance or less for an inch. Meanwhile, the event is just now beginning to fall within range of the HREF, which is suggesting higher probabilities (anywhere from 40 to 80 percent) for an inch of accumulation north of Pittsburgh (and especially along and north of I-80), but significantly lower probabilities of around 10-20% for 2 inches in the same areas. Probabilities are also generally lower in the ridges, for example a 30 to 50 percent chance for an inch of accumulation in the Laurels. However, the latest HREF only runs through 7pm Sunday, so it's possible these probabilities increase in future runs as snow showers are forecast to linger in the ridges through evening. A cold front late Sunday brings a reinforcing shot of cold air, leading to low temperatures dropping back into the teens north of Pittsburgh and low 20s elsewhere Sunday night. Dry weather and below-seasonal temperatures then continue Monday and Monday night under the influence of building high pressure. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Below normal temperatures continue through the long term. - Additional rounds of potential winter weather with a series of passing disturbances mid and late week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A broad trough will transition across CONUS through the period with the initial cold front progged to cross the region on Wednesday. Rain is likely with this system and have increased QPF amounts based on latest model consensus and anomalies/M-Climate. In general, most locations look to see around one half inch on average. With cold high pressure sliding in behind the front, only minor disturbances are progged the remainder of the period with temperatures dropping back to near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the overnight period will be defined by low clouds and an outside chance of light snow or freezing drizzle at FKL and DUJ early. Winds are generally expected to veer through the period from southerly at the beginning, to west-northwesterly by the end. Current HREF guidance suggests a 60% to 100% chance of at least MVFR cigs for the entire TAF period, with chances lowest to the south and highest to the north. Chances of IFR are marginal, with chances mostly between 30% south and 60% north. The next potential winter system arrives tomorrow, with chances of seeing any precipitation highest if FKL and DUJ and most likely to be snow. Confidence in any snow (and vis restrictions) drops the farther south you go related to both the chance of precipitation decreasing, and also warmer temperatures allowing a fractional chance of rain to mix in. The most likely timing and precipitation type was denoted at BVI, PIT, AGC, and LBE with TEMPOs being higher confidence in occurrence and PROB30s being lower confidence in occurrence. With probabilities of any precipitation only ~20% at ZZV, HLG, and MGW, no precipitation was noted for now. Outlook... The overall weather pattern through late next week strongly favors shortwave movement within upper troughing that occurs almost every other day. Each system will feature varying degrees of precipitation chances (type mainly snow, save for short periods of rain at southern terminals), intensities, and either the continuation of or reintroduction to MVFR-IFR restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB NEAR TERM...MLB SHORT TERM...Cermak/88 LONG TERM...88 AVIATION...Milcarek ####018003047#### FXUS64 KSJT 062327 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 527 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend will continue into Today. - Cooler Sunday and Monday then warmer by middle of next week. - Dry this weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Generally quiet and dry weather will continue through Sunday. A cold front will move through late tonight into Sunday, bringing northerly winds and cooler temperatures. After highs in the 60s and 70s today, Sunday's highs will only warm into the upper 50s along and north of I-20 to mid 60s along the I-10 corridor. Skies will remain mostly clear though Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1108 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 The long term forecast remains dry through the upcoming work week, with a series of upper-level disturbances and associated dry cold fronts traversing the area through the period. The rollercoaster of temperatures will continue with the passing of each of these cold fronts and the gradual warm ups that happen in their wake. High temperatures on Sunday start off in the upper 50s to mid 60s and gradually warm up into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Tuesday through Thursday this coming week. The next cold front that moves in from the north on Friday will bring another round of cooler high temperatures for Friday and next Saturday, ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s. There is a chance for some breezy northerly winds with the frontal passage on Sunday, breezy south to southwesterly winds on Tuesday, and a switch to breezy northwesterly winds on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 VFR conditions will continue into the early morning hours ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will reach the northern terminals before sunrise, with the latest model data showing at least MVFR if not IFR cigs and some fog developing as the front passes. Will build this into the KABI terminal. Farther south, cold front will pass across the area and bring gusty northerly winds by late morning or early afternoon. Central and southern terminals should stay VFR, although will need to watch the KBBD location closely on Sunday morning to see if a brief area of low clouds can develop just behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 41 60 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 43 63 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 43 66 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 40 61 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 43 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 44 64 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 46 62 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...07 ####018005978#### FXUS61 KOKX 062328 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 628 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure builds over the area tonight and into Sunday. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night ushering in a cold high pressure system for Monday into Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems may impact the area the mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Weak high pressure will gradually build in from the west into the overnight as the disturbances causing the showery activity earlier in the day shifts to the east. The building in high pressure will allow for some weak CAA into the area under a light W to eventual NW flow. Skies will be generally clearing tonight. Lows will be in the 20s with the immediate coast and the NYC metro remaining in the low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over the area on Sunday quickly translates east with increasing cloud cover by afternoon courtesy of a passing shortwave to the north. While cloud cover will increase and a weak southerly flow develops, no precipitation is expected in the area as the low passes to the north, though a stray flurry or light snow shower for northern areas isn't completely ruled out. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s along and closer to the coast. By evening, a strong cold front moves through allowing for a wind shift to the NW and strong CAA into the area. This is ahead of a strong and cold high pressure system building into the area for Monday and Monday night. Lows on Sunday night will be in the 20s for the entire area, though some outlying spots may drop into the upper teens. Wind chill values will make the air feel like it is in the teens along the coast and possibly single digits for northern locations. Cold air settles over the area on Monday with high temperatures well below average. Afternoon highs are only expected to rise into the middle to upper 20s inland and into the low 30s along the coast. Despite mostly clear skies with ample sunshine during the day, the combination of brisk NW flow and cold air will allow for wind chill values to not rise out of the upper teens to lower 20s during the day. High pressure moves more solidly over the area Monday night allowing for a decrease in the wind. Some radiational cooling is possible overnight but some high level clouds moving in may prevent temperatures from dropping more than forecast. Regardless, lows are expected to be some of the coldest of the season thus far with lows in the single digits for extreme NW portions of the area with teens expected just about everywhere else. Some spots near NYC may only drop into the low 20s. It is possible for some outlying spots to drop lower than forecast if clouds hold off for a bit longer than expected and wind goes calm at some point overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds. Key Points: * A series of quick-moving systems brings chances of precipitation, to the area late Tuesday night through Saturday. Precipitation types of mainly rain for the coast and a wintry mix inland. * Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday, when they'll be near normal. * Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds. Uncertainty in the forecast increases during the Thursday night- Saturday period. This is when model spread increases regarding the position and timing of low pressure centers/frontal boundaries that may impact the area. Chances of precipitation are at 50% or lower through the long term period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds to the southwest through tonight, before sliding offshore on Sunday. A strong cold front passes through the region Sunday evening. VFR. A light WNW/NW flow o light and variable continues through the overnight. Variable winds are likely for a period late Sunday morning, before a general SW flow becomes established in the early afternoon at around 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Direction could hang near, or just north of, 310 mag for the Sun AM push. Winds become variable after 15Z Sun, before becoming SW by early afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday night: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt developing late. Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt. Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible w/ chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible. Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. An increase in the pressure gradient behind a cold frontal passage Sunday night will allow winds to increase to SCA criteria for much of the waters by Monday morning. Non-ocean waters likely fall below SCA conditions by Monday evening with the ocean waters falling below SCA conditions later at night. SCA conditions are once again possible by Tuesday afternoon through much of next week as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MW NEAR TERM...MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/MW HYDROLOGY...JC/MW ####018004926#### FXUS63 KEAX 062329 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 529 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A wintry mix may bring very minor snow accumulations for far northern and northeastern MO from this evening into the overnight hours. There is roughly a 5-20% chance for any snow along and north of a line from Grant City to just north of Kirksville and less than a 5% chance for an inch of snow along the IA/MO state line. - Very cold temperatures move into the area tonight and linger through Monday. Wind chill values are forecast to remain single digits to mid 20s (from north to south) through the day Sunday. - The remainder of the forecast is very likely to be dry, with only small precipitation chances Wednesday night/ early Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 An embedded shortwave trough, within broad northwesterly flow, will bring a chance for snow to far northern/northeastern MO this evening and overnight, and a small chance for light further south. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and mid 30s as a warm front has lifted into northern MO. This warm and moist advection helped fog to persist longer into the day. That warm front connects to the surface low in central NE. The cold front that will surge colder air southward into the region is still sitting across SD. As the shortwave approaches from the northwest this afternoon and evening, the surface low will be forced southeastward cross northern MO. As that low shifts east overnight, the cold front will surge southward through the area, increasing winds from the northwest to north and dropping temperatures. With the bulk of the forcing/ ascent north of the area, and temperatures warming into the middle 30s across northern MO, the potential for icing in that part of the forecast area has decreased. But there may be enough support for minor snow accumulations along the MO/IA state line. Confidence in this is not very high given the low probabilities for seeing even any measurable snow. Further south, in the vicinity of the cold front, isolated to scattered rain showers are possible. This area looks fast-moving and QPF is limited to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch, with the best chance for anything measurable east of I-35. As mentioned, temperatures drop behind the front such that by sunrise Sunday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the teens to low 20s across northern MO with 30s in our southeastern zones. Cold advection continues through the day so we'll see near steady or even falling temperatures through the afternoon. With winds during the gusting to 20 to 25 mph, wind chill values will be bitterly cold with values in the single digits across northern MO to the middle teens in our southern zones. Winds weaken later in the day/ sunset, but as temperatures fall through the evening, wind chills in the single digits to teens look widespread. The central US will remain in a broadly northwesterly flow regime through the week. This will keep the area in a progression of clipper/ clipper-like systems. Each of these waves vary in the amount of moisture available with them. The strongest and most robust with moisture looks to arrive Wednesday evening - Thursday AM. Given the variability, PoPs are still quite low. The probability distribution for any measurable snow (0.1") is similar to the current system and generally keeps the greatest probabilities in far northern to northeastern MO. But there are 5-20% chances starting near the KC metro that increase further north and northeast. So this will need to be watched as any variability in the track of the clipper could shift the track of any accumulating snow north or south with it. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 518 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 A clipper currently moving east across Iowa is drawing lower CIGs across parts of the region. From this low stratus in northern Missouri, which is largely IFR, a mist or light rain is falling which is affecting VSBYs. Eventually, all TAF sites will fall below VFR conditions this evening. While conditions may temporarily improve behind a cold front passage later tonight, stratus currently evident on satellite behind that front will bring conditions lower (likely IFR at times) for most of the area through mid- morning. Winds will also abruptly shift out of the northwest with the front's passage, starting at St. Joseph and arriving at the Kansas City metro terminals soon thereafter. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...WFO EAX